Worksheet: Binomial Distribution Problems

Problem 1. A manufacturer of electronics components produces precision resistors designed to have a tolerance of 1%. From quality-control testing, the manufacturer knows that about one resistor in si is actually within !ust ".#% of its nominal value. A customer needs two of these more precise resistors. $hat is the probability of finding e actly two such resistors among the first four tested% &. 'aula moves to an area with a different telephone e change. (elephone numbers in the new e change start with )*#, and all combinations of the four remaining digits are equally likely. a+ ,alculate the probability that the last four digits in 'aula-s new telephone number are even. b+ $hat is the e pected number of even digits in her new telephone number% #. (he ,hoco-.atie ,andies company makes candy-coated chocolates, /"% of which are red. (he production line mi es the candies randomly and packages ten per bo . a+ $hat is the probability that less than four candies in a given bo are red% b+ $hat is the probability that at least four candies in a given bo are red% c+ 0escribe a second way of finding the answer to part b+.

/. 'repare a table and a graph for a binomial probability distribution with n 1 * and p 1 . *. 2ne type of !et engine has a "."""1 probability of failure while in flight. For a !et that has four of these engines, what is the probability of at least two of them failing% 3. 4uppose that 3*% of the families in a town own computers, 5f ten families are surveyed at random, a+ what is the probability that at least five own computers% b+ what is the e pected number of families that own computers% ). 6inety percent of a country-s population are right-handed. a+ $hat is the probability that e actly &7 people in a group of #" are right-handed% b+ $hat is the e pected number of right-handed people in a group of #"% c+ 0esign a simulation to show that the e pectation calculated in part b+ is accurate. 8. 4uppose that 9ayanisthol, a new drug, is effective for 3*% of the participants in clinical trials. 5f a group of fifteen patients take this new drug, a+ what is the e pected number of patients for whom the drug will be effective% b+ what is the probability that the drug will be effective for less than half of them% 7. :ason knows that his favourite player on the ;aptors basketball team scores on 8#% of his free-throw attempts. 4ince 1" ".8# 1 8.#, :ason e pects that in ten attempts this player will score eight times. a+ 5s :ason-s reasoning correct% < plain why or why not. b+ 5s the player more likely to score e actly eight times or not to score e actly eight times% 1". A student writes a five question multiple-choice qui=. <ach question has four possible responses. (he student guesses at random for each question. ,alculate the probability for each possible score on the test from " to *. 11. (here are 1" members on a committee. (he probability of any member attending a randomly chosen meeting is ".7. (he committee cannot do business if more than # members are absent. $hat is the probability that ) or more members will be present on a given date%

1&. A school fills each of its >rade 7 mathematics classes with && students. Assume that the likelihood of a male or female being given a place in a class is equal. 0esign a simulation that could be used to model the distribution of males and females in these classes. 1#. A small math class consists of 13 students. $hat is the probability that the difference in the number of male and female students in the class is greater than /% 1/. A baseball player has a batting average of ".#*". ,ompare the e pected value for his number of hits in a game with 3 at bats to the probability of the number of hits he is most likely to get. 1*. A soccer linesman will make the correct call for a possible offside pass 7"% of the time. $hat is the probability that he will make & or fewer incorrect calls in a game in which he sees #& passes%

Worksheet: Binomial Distribution Problems Answer Section

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(2'? 9inomial probabilities

a+ b+ @ere, n 1 / and p 1 "./, so the e pected number of even digits is EAX+ 1 / "./ 1 ".13 '(4? 1 ;<F? Applications 29:? 4ection ).& (2'? 9inomial probabilities B < pected value #. A64? a+ 1 ".#8&# b+ 1 C ".#8&# 1 ".31)) c+ (he probability that at least four candies in a given bo are red can also be found by adding the individual probabilities for e actly four, five, si , seven, eight, nine, and ten red candies. '(4? 1 ;<F? Applications B ,ommunication (2'? 9inomial probabilities /. A64? (he probabilities are given by the formula PAx+ 1 *CxA".*+xA".*+*Cx 1 CxA".*+* Number of Successes x " 1 & # / * 29:? 4ection ).&

Probabilit!, P"x# "."#1 &* ".1*3 &* ".#1& * ".#1& * ".1*3 &* "."#1 &*

'(4? 1 ;<F? Dnowledge E Fnderstanding (2'? 9inomial probabilities *. A64?

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(2'? 9inomial probabilities

(his probability can also be calculated using the binomcdf( function on a graphing calculator, the BINOMDIST function in a spreadsheet, or the binomialProbability function in FathomG.

b+ '(4? 1 ;<F? Applications 29:? 4ection ).& (2'? 9inomial probabilities B < pected value ). A64? a+ @ere, p 1 ".7" and n 1 #".

(his probability can also be calculated using the binompdf( function on a graphing calculator, the BINOMDIST function in a spreadsheet, or the binomialProbability function in FathomG. b+ np 1 #" ".7" 1&) c+ Answers may vary. (he following method could be used with a graphing calculator.

,heck that list .1 is clear. .et 1 represent a right-handed person. <nter randBin(1,9/10,30) L1. <nter sum(L1). ;ecord this result. Fse this process to generate ten or more sets of random numbers and calculate the average of the sums. '(4? 1 29:? 4ection ).& 8. A64? ;<F? Applications B ,ommunication B (hinkingH5nquiryH'roblem 4olving (2'? 9inomial probabilities B < pected value B 4imulations

a+

b+

(his probability can also be calculated using the binomcdf( function on a graphing calculator, the BINOMDIST function in a spreadsheet, or the binomialProbability function in FathomG.

'(4? 1 ;<F? Applications 29:? 4ection ).& (2'? 9inomial probabilities B < pected value 7. A64? a+ :ason is correct that the e pected number of baskets scored is np 1 8.#. @owever, this value is the e pected average of many sets of trials. For a single set of trials, :ason can predict only that the player is likely to score about eight times. b+

(he player is more likely not to score e actly 8 times. '(4? 1 29:? 4ection ).& 1". A64? ;<F? ,ommunication B (hinkingH5nquiryH'roblem 4olving (2'? 9inomial probabilities B < pected value

'(4? 1 ;<F? Application 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions 4(A? ,'&."* (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions 11. A64? (he total probability is the sum of the probabilities for having ), 8, 7 or 1" members present.

(he total probability is ".78)&. '(4? 1 ;<F? Application 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions 4(A? ,'&."* (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions 1&. A64? A simple simulation could involve using a coin and assigning one face to represent a male student and the other face to represent a female student. (he coin would be tossed && times to simulate filling one class. 4uccessive repetitions could provide as many sample classes as needed to model the probability distribution.

'(4? 1 ;<F? (hinkingH5nquiryH'4 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions 4(A? ,'I."# (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions 1#. A64? (here are five cases where the gender split is / or less. (hese are 8JH8F, 7JH)F, 7FH)J, 1"JH3F, and 1"FH3J. 4ubtract the sum of these probabilities from 1 to obtain the requested probability. 0efine X as the random variable representing the number of males in the class.

PAX 1 3, ), 8, 7, 1"+ 1 ".173/ K &A".1)/3+ K &A".1&&&+ 1 ".)7 (his represents the probability that the gender split is / or less. (he requested probability is ".&1. '(4? 1 ;<F? Application 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions 4(A? ,'&."* (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions 1/. A64? (he e pected value for a binomial distribution is EAX+ 1 np. 5n this case, we have 3 trials and a probability of success of ".#*". (he e pected number of hits is &.1.

(he actual probability of getting r hits in 3 at bats is given by . (his gives PAX 1 1+ 1 ".&/#), PAX 1 &+ 1 ".#&8, and PAX 1 #+ 1 ".&#*. (he most likely number of hits is closest to the e pected value, while the ne t most likely numbers of hits are on either side of the e pected value. '(4? 1 ;<F? Application 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions 4(A? ,'&."* (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions 1*. A64? $e will simply evaluate the probabilities for ", 1, and & incorrect calls and find their sum.

(he total probability of & or fewer incorrect calls is ".#33) or #3.)%. '(4? 1 4(A? ,'&."* ;<F? Application 29:? *.# 9inomial 0istributions (2'? 'robability 0istributions and 'redictions