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Unit No. 12

Population in Pakistan

Demographic Transition Model is also known as Population Cycle. It can be divided into following stages. Stage 1 - High Fluctuating (1905-1935) Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and fluctuating. Reasons Birth Rate is high as a result of:

Lack of family planning Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Large families were taken as a matter of pride

Death Rate is high because of:

Infant mortality rate (High levels of disease like diarrhea, Cholera, Malaria) Famine and droughts Lack of clean water and sanitation (Unhygienic conditions) Lack of health care War /Solution of mutual disputes by force and use of arms Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education

Stage 2 - Early Expanding (1935-1970) Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.

Reasons Death Rate is falling as a result of:

Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine, hospitals, doctors, use of antibiotics,life saving drugs) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates

Stage 3 - Late Expanding (1970-2005) Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising. Reasons:

Family planning available (e.g. Sabz Sitara, Chabi ka Nishan etc.) Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living and improved literacy rate Changing status of women (Career oriented life of women) Late women marriage in urban areas

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating (2005-2040) Birth Rate and Death Rate both low, leading to low natural population

Analysis and Comparison of Population pyramid

A population pyramid, also called age-sex pyramid and age structure diagram, is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups and sex ratio (Population structure) in a human population (typically that of a country or region of the world), which normally forms the shape of a pyramid.

Unemployment Unemployment is one of the biggest problems of Pakistan. That person is unemployed who has ability to do work and is willing to do work but is unable to get job opportunity. In the current situation more than 30 lakh people are unemployed in Pakistan and unemployment ratio is more than 12%.

Causes of Unemployment in Pakistan

1. Backwardness of agriculture sector
The biggest reason of unemployment in Pakistan is concerned with the backwardness of agriculture sector. Agriculture is the biggest sector of our economy that contributes 20.9% to GDP and 44% people get jobs from this sector directly or indirectly. Unemployment in this sector is from two sides. First is due to the adoption of latest machinery and capital intensive technology. Due to this, demand for labour has been decreased. Second is the backwardness of this sector. There is less availability of fertilisers, pesticides, quality seeds, absence of land reforms and lack of agriculture education. Due to all these factors agriculture
sector is not expanding and there is general and disguised unemployment.

2. Industrial backwardness (Deterioration)

Industrial sector is the second largest sector of our economy and contributes 19% to national income. This sector should employ a large number of labor. But due to backwardness it is employing a small number of people. Due to electricity breakdown already established industry is deteriorating, resulting in the prevailing unemployment ratio.

3. Less demand for Pakistani products

High cost and low quality are responsible for less demand for our agricultural and industrial items. Because of less demand of such kinds of goods both the domestic and international producers are losing their interest in production. Thats why people are
becoming unemployed.

4. Mismatch between demand and supply of labour

In Pakistan education system is defective. There is no educational planning. This system is producing the stuff, which is useless in technical fields of the country. There is lack of technical and vocational institutions. Public attitude towards education is wrong, they want to get their degrees in general and arts subjects. Nobody can set up his own business without technical education.

5. Low savings
Millions of people in Pakistan are poor. Due to poverty people are overburdened with expenditures and their savings are very low. It is said that for the reasonable growth of economy saving rate should be at least 25% in any country, but in Pakistan it is only 13 to 14% which is very low. Low investment level is due to less savings, ultimately there is unemployment.

6. Bankrupts Businesses
In Pakistan majority of the businessmen are less educated. They do not know how to run their businesses properly. So they become bankrupt. This factor generates unemployment on a massive level.

7. High rates of inputs (Electricity)

Loadshedding of electricity is disturbing economy, especially the industrial sector. Due to less availability and high rates of basic inputs like electricity, gas and oil etc, many industries have been closed.

8. Poor Sysytem of tax collection

ix. In Pakistan, tax system is not satisfactory. Ratio of direct taxes is more than indirect taxes. Tax evasion is common. Due to less income from the taxes, government cannot start developmental projects. If there is no investment, then from where public would find jobs. On the other side if government takes step to increase indirect taxes, it would also affect investment and ultimately employment level.

9.International recession
Current international financial crisis is one of the biggest reason of unemployment in Pakistan and in the whole world. This crisis originated from the banking sector of USA, UK and some European countries and is now a global phenomena. High growth rate Pakistans population growth rate is 1.8% which is the highest in the region. Our resources are limited. Different sectors of economy are unable to provide jobs to the growing population. So there is unemployment.

10. Fiscal and monetary policies

Fiscal and monetary policies are also responsible for unemployment. In view of fiscal policy, Pakistan has less funds to invest in job providing projects. Every annual budget shows deficit. Through the monetary policy if the government increases the rate of interest, it discourages the investors from getting loans.

11. Political instability

Political instability, bad law and order situation, armys interference, bomb blasts, terrorism, inconsistent economic policies etc are the factors which are disturbing domestic and foreign investment. Pakistan investors are taking away their money to Dubai and other countries of the world.

12. Limited international opportunities

Due to 9/11 incident, Gulf war and the baseless allegations of terrorism the image of Pakistan has been affected very badly at international level. So in the current scenario Pakistan has limited job opportunities in other countries of the world.

13. Urge to work in Govt. sector

Craze for work only in government sector, instead of private sector and seasonal firms, industries are also responsible for unemployment.

14. Repayment of loans

Since 1947, Pakistani rulers got loans from IMF, World Bank and many other sources. Such loans were not utilized honestly. Current external debt of Pakistan is more than 50 billion dollar. Government has to allocate a big amount for the repayment of loans with interest. So due to fewer resources for developmental projects there is unemployment.

Employed and unemployed people in pakistan

Employed labour force by sector

Problems Caused by High Population Growth Economic Problems- Low Economic Development
High Proportion of unproductive population (High dependency ratio) Unemployment and Underemployment Reduction in savings and investment Inflationary pressure Vicious cycle of poverty Food shortage
Social Problems Low Standard of living/Deteriorating Social Environment

Burden on social infrastructure/Provision of civic facilities Poor health facilities Food shortage Lack of housing Low literacy rate Increasing Rural-Urban migration Increasing crime rate Increasing divorce rate
Psychological Problems Psychiatric disorders

Depression Anxiety Drug addiction Child abuse Increasing suicide rate Terrorism

Solutions to the Problems Caused by High Population Growth Rate 1. Decreasing Population Growth Rate

Family Planning Programs Sabz Sitara, Sabz Chabi, Ladies Health Workers , Social Mobilizers ( males & females), Publicity of Family Planning Programs (Electronic and print media) Role of Religious Scholars Role of NGOs Increasing literacy rate Women Educational Institutions (Career oriented life)
2. Increasing Production

Income of a targeted group should be increased through employment creation Redistribution of assets beyond a certain limit (e.g. land Reforms)

Production enhancing measures in agriculture and industry etc. Increasing role of govt. in providing basic facilities e.g. health and education Welfare Schemes e.g. Sasti Roti Scheme and Benazir Income Support Program

Internal Migration
Rural-urban Migration Pull Factors
Better job opportunities Better wage rate Peaceful Social environment Better standard of living (civic facilities) Bright future of children (education ) Availability of technical training Recreational facilities(parks & cinemas)
Urban glamour (attracts youth)

Push factors
Large family sizes Uneconomic land holdings (division among heirs) Disguised unemployment (Agriculture) High birth rate Mechanization Natural disasters (Floods & thunderstorms etc.)

9 Problems Caused by Rural-Urban migration (Same as the problems of high population growth) International Migration Emigration Emigration refers to the people migrating from Pakistan to other countries e.g. many Pkistanis living in Europe, Middle east and Canada. Immigration Immigration refers to the people migrating to Pakistan e.g. afghan Refugees in Pakistan. Causes of Emigration Pull Factors Better Civic facilities Health Education Recreational facilities transportation Variety of jobs Better wage rate Highly organized life with strong institutions Freedom of speech and criticism Rule of law Security Effects of Emigration Positive effects Foreign remittances contribute to development Overseas donate to charity organization Cultural exchange Flow of IT to Pakistan Emigrants who excel improve image of Pakistan Emigrants return and serve with their experience and education Emigrants create job vacancies for locals Push Factors Social taboos (e.g. women education & employment) Low wage rate Unemployment and underemployment Political instability Corruption Poor level of civic facilities Delay in justice Lack of social security (e.g. unemployment allowance) Growing terrorism

Negative effects Brain drain Loss of industrial work force Pakistanis who dont obey law bring bad name to Pakistan Families, particularly children of emigrants suffer because of lack of parental care

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Factors of Population Density

Physical
Relief (Shape and height of land) Climate

High density Plain areas All important areas of Indus plain (Sahiwal, Okara,Kasur,Hyderabad, Sukkur etc.) Toleratable temp. Moderate Monsoon Karachi, Lahore, Northern Punjab and Peshawar etc. KP Presence of minerals No areas in Pakistan have high population density because of mineral exploitation

Low density Rugged mountains Karakoram, Himalayas, Hindukush, Chaghi hills. Extreme low temp. Skardu, Gilgit, Chitral Extreme High temp.

Resources

Kharan,Kachhi and Nara desert No exploitation Parts of Baluchistan Barren land Mangroves South western Coastal Sindh Baluchistan (Swamps) Thin soil/bare rocks/glacial erosion SW Baluchistan, Nortern areas Non-availability of rivers/lakes Kharan ,Thar and Cholistan desert Mountain barriers Sofed Koh, Hindukush and Karakoram Mountains

Natural vegetation

Soil Water supply Natural routes

Fertile alluvium Indus Plain Availability of rivers/lakes Irrigated areas of Indus Plain Passes Natural harbours Khyber,Kurram Karachi Bolan etc.

Social
Accommodation facilities Basic facilities (Education & health) Rural-urban migration

High density Better housing Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad Better facilities Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad Presence of Rural-urban migration Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Faisalabad, Quetta

Low density Poor housing Rural areas of Sindh and KP Poor basic facilities Rural areas of all provinces particularly Baluchistan Depopulation Rural areas of all provinces

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Political
Govt. Policies

High density Favorable Around industrial estates on M2 (LHRIslamabad) Islamabad, extension of Lahore, Karachi and Faisalabad

Low density Lack of Govt. investment Kharan, Chaghi and Nokundi

New Towns

Economic
Transport System

High density Efficient transport system Karachi, Lahore, Multan and Faisalabad etc. Industrially developed areas Karachi Trade & business activities Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi Tourist resorts (developed) Murree, Swat, Kaghan, Naran Land reclaimed Pars of Cholistan and Thar desert

Low density Poor transport system Ketch,Kharan and Baltistan Lack of industrial development Kachhi,Khuzdar, Chaman Limited trade & business activities South Western Baluchistan, extreme North Lack of tourism development FATA, Waziristan Land loss due to deforestation, erosion, waterlogging and salinity Rural areas of KP and Sindh Limited port facilities(Makran coast)

Industrial development Trade and business centers Tourism development Reclamation of land

Port facilities

Availability of ports(Karachi)

Problems faced by Emigrants when leave Pakistan

Difficulty in obtaining visa of country of destination Home sickness Adjustment to a new social environment Delay in finding suitable job Sense of being second class citizen Illegal emigration, a threat to life Upbringing of children in western culture

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Problems faced by Emigrants when return to Pakistan

Difficulty in adopting eastern lifestyle Difficulty in finding high income job Corruption and red tape (for business starters) Harassment by tax officials and other departments

Population Density Population density is defined as number of persons per square kilometer Population Density of Pakistan = 180 million/796,096 = 226 persons / Sq. Km.