Indian Branded Retail Segment

13th October 2009

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Over the years Retail in India has
been portrayed as

This..

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 This..

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Or this…

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However The Future Holds…

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This…!!!

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 Indian Retail Industry…At a Glance
 We are living in the age of branding. Branding has developed from FMCG’s & kirana shops
to multi facet stores present in shopping malls, stand alone stores, exclusive boutiques, etc.
 The Indian retail market, is the top attractive investment destination followed by Russia &
China*
 Currently, the share of retail to the country’s GDP is around 12% and it is estimated to rise
to around 22% by 2010
 Among the retail market, apparels is the 2nd largest in terms of value, growing at a rate of
10% annually
 With the opening up of the economy the retail industry has witnessed a change over the
years and with FDI allowed up to 51% in single brand retail the demographics of this
industry have improved substantially and is expected to improve even further
 Of all market categories retail offers in itself the broadest canvas for any brand to show its
true colors, to portray itself in front of the consumer and finally putting the brand in
consumers hand
 Changing consumer patterns, rising income levels and the emerging middle class which will
constitute more than half of the total population is set to drive growth in this sector
* ( AT Kearney’s annual Global retail Development Index in 2009) [email protected]
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 The recent recession did leave its
footprints on the sector….
 The current economic downturn faced world over has had an adverse effect
on the sector

 Recently India has slipped to 6th position from 2nd in export of clothing (USD
10.17 billion in 2008-09)

 The current fiscal has seen garment export growth rate declining to 7% from
9% a year before

 The declining trend has been visible since Jun 2008 and has carried on till
Feb 09 with demand picking up with signs of a global economic recovery in
the latter half of the year

 Post September 2008, clothing exports from India have declined each month
(excepting January 2009). The provisional figures for the September-March
period are USD 5.52 billion v/s. USD 5.90 billion in the corresponding period
last year, i.e. a decline of approximately 4.75%. The trend in April 2009 has
continued to show a decline -9.71%
Source: AEPC Estimates, Textile Commissioners office [email protected]
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But the Future Holds promise for the
companies !!!

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The Per capita GDP has grown exponentially
over the years and is expected to grow further
and…
India GDP Per Capita

90.00
80.00
GDP Per Capita (Rs 000s)

70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2001

2004

2006

2007

2008

2009

2011

2012

2014
2002

2003

2005

2010

2013
Year

GDP Per Capita

Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market [email protected]

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…This along with the Transition of the middle
class will lead to….

 In 2005 this middle

class was of
relatively small size
comprising just 5%
of the total
population but that
will increase to
41% by 2025

 The total apparel

consumption by
these classes
(strivers, seekers,
and globals) is said
to increase more
than ten times from
$3.6 billion in 2006
to $37 billion by
2025

Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market [email protected]

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 … Strong Consumption Growth
 The combination of rapidly rising
Aggregate Consumption (trillion Indian Rupees)
household incomes and a robustly
growing population will lead to a
significant increase on the
consumption front. 80

60
 Aggregate consumption of India is
expected to grow to 34 trillion 40
rupees by 2015 and 70 trillion by
2025, a four fold increase from
20
current levels of 17 trillion
0
 The Indian market is expected to 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
be the 5th largest market in the
world by 2025 surpassing the Aggregate Consumption
market of Germany
Source: McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market [email protected]
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AEPC also Forecasts Strong growth in the
Indian Apparel Industry

 Attaining exports worth US$ 34 billion by 2015

 Growing at an average of around 18% for the period 2009-2015

 Have at least 5.3% share in global apparel market by 2015

 Have 60% share in India’s textile exports

 Should retain 90% of the domestic market which is growing @ 10%

 Although low growth scenario of 6% annual growth rate is likely for the next 2
years , AEPC vision is based on sustained growth of top five apparel suppliers.
Based on the past export trends of India and feasibility study and assuming that
the world apparel market grows moderately at 8%, AEPC fixed the target for
apparel exports by 2015 at US$34 billion
*Source: Apparel Export Promotion Council
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The Retailers are also working to
overcome Key Hurdles…
 Increasing market share

 Improving brand image

 Insulating the export market by diversifying

 Tackling production related issues and reducing

cost disadvantage

 Keeping a check on debt funded expansion

 Penetrating the rural markets and Tier 1 and Tier

2 cities

 Offering products for the lower income bracket

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….and This Is What the Future holds
 As the consumer base in India grows exponentially from 300 million to an estimated
500 million in the next 5 years the Retail Sector is slated to grow along with it
 India’s overall retail sector is estimated to rise to US $ 833 billion by 2013 and US $ 1.3
trillion by 2018. Organised retail among this which constitutes just 5% of the total
market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 20 billion in 2007 to US $ 107 billion by 2013
signifying the huge potential
 With the 2nd largest population in the world growing at an average of around 1% per
annum and with rising income levels retail sector will ride on the consumption wave that
continues to be on of the most significant part of the Indian GDP
 Malls are expected to be one of the major growth drivers of apparel retailing and in
terms of opening new retail outlets, apparel retailers and brands attained a higher than
expected growth rate and with the number of stores being added up every year the
market potential is for all to see.
 The number of operational malls are expected to grow two folds and to cross 412 with
205 million square feet by 2010 and further 715 malls to be added by 2015 with a
chunk of development taking place in tier-2 and tier-3 cities which are relatively newer
avenues for the Industry
 Apparel industry is considered an environmental friendly industry due to its low
emission levels. The industry can leverage the carbon credits saved in this industry and
trade them in the world market. In fact, it can be a new source of revenue for our
industry

Source: Company report, McKinsey report on Indian Consumer market [email protected]

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Companies Section
Zodiac : Buy
Provogue : Buy
Koutons : Hold
Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited : Hold

Given the fact that because of the rise in global equity markets the prices of the
mentioned stocks have already gone up by an average of 150% in last 6 months,
one can make an initial small investment and then add on dips. The SIP form of
investment with equal weight on the four stocks is also a feasible way to invest.
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Peer Analysis

Company Zodiac Kewal Kiran Provogue Koutons

Clothing Ltd.

Net Sales 338.86 145.09 363.56 1062.2

EBIDTA 39.54 20.62 25.25 223.8

EBIDTA Margins (%) 11.67 14.21 6.95 21.07

Net Profit 24.96 14.25 59.21 79.64

Net Profit Margin (%) 7.37 9.82 16.29 7.5

EPS 29.71 11.59 5.09 26.11

BVPS (31.03.2009) 192.19 122.98 69.78 139.38

CMP (24.08.2009) 295.25 208.09 66.50 363.95

P/E 10.1 18.02 13.06 2.61

Price/Book 1.53 1.7 .95 13.94

Dividend Yield 2.20 1.43 .45 .27

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.(1/3)
Investment Rationale:
 The company has innovated itself over the years by bringing out premium brands like ZODIAC,
ZOD, Z3 which have been created a strong brand presence in the market
 The company follows a policy of operating only profitable stores under which it closed 13 stores
last year
 With a presence through 69 exclusive Zodiac outlets and also present through 1000 multi brand
stores the company has a pan India presence
 The company incurs capex through internal accruals only thus reducing its interest costs over
the years
 Cash reserves of almost Rs 130 per share
 Sales have increased by 100% over FY06 and the company has maintained its margins even in
a difficult economic scenario
 With eminent persons like Deepak Parekh on the BOD the company does not face risk of
corporate governance

Risks:
 The company faces risk against currency fluctuations since it has operations in foreign
countries
 The stock carries the burden of a very high impact cost because of low trading volume

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.(2/3)
Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009 Key Products
OVERVIEW
Business Description Listing NSE/BSE

Current Price (Rs) 295.25 • Garments

• Zodiac Clothing Company Limited (ZCCL) • Apparels
are manufacturers and exporters of Market Cap (Rs Cr) 247.61
Premium Branded Business Shirts and
Free Float (%) 39.31
Formal Office dress shirts in India
52-WEEK HIGH (Rs) 361.50
• ZCCL has been in this business for the last 148.35
50 years and operates through 1000 multi 52-WEEK LOW (Rs)
brand outlets and has 69 exclusive Zodiac BETA 0.75
stores Key Management
P/B (x) 1.53
• Mr MY Noorani: Chairman
Current P/E (x) 10.1
• Dr S Abid Hussain: Director
PEG Ratio 0.25 (PadmaBhushan, IAS officer,
Dividend Yield (%) 2.20 Former Secretary Govt. of
India)
Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009
Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009
• Mr Deepak Parekh: Director
Period Stock Sensex FCA
PROMOTER 60.69
•Mr ML Apte: Director
FII 16.25
1M 1.79 5.21
DII -
3M 2.87 23.76
Public 20.55
Others 2.52 1 Year -2.06 61.73

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Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd.((3/3)
Financials (Annual):
Financial Analysis:
Key Ratios (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009
• Sales increased by 19.53% even in a
Sales 167.6 259.2 283.5 338.86 difficult economic climate standing at Rs
338.86 crores in FY09
Growth (%) 11.73 54.65 9.38 19.53
EBIDTA 5.73 28.4 31.3 39.54 • EBITDA margins have been maintained in
FY09 and stands at 11.67% up marginally
EBIDTA Margins (%) 3.4 10.96 11.04 11.67
over FY08
Net Profit 8.94 23.64 32.42 24.96
• PAT margins have suffered in FY09
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.33 9.12 11.44 7.37
declining 400bps to 7.37%
EPS 10.64 28.14 38.60 29.71
• EPS has declined to Rs 29.71 in FY09 on
BVPS 116.61 137.94 169.24 192.19
account of lower profit margins
ROE (%) 6.5 22.1 25.1 16.5
• ROE has suffered in FY09 due to lower
ROCE (%) 8.4 17.75 22.75 14.17
margins standing at 16.5% and ROCE
Debt-Equity .3 .28 .18 .18 declined to 14.17%
Interest Coverage 2.66 13.06 16.65 27.67
• Debt equity ratio remains the same as FY08
and is impressive at .18 in FY09
Financials (Quarterly):
Key Ratios (%) Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09
• Interest Coverage ratio has increased to
27.67 times in FY09 showing the healthy
Net Sales 73.16 76.11 70.80 63.79 financial condition of the company
EBIDTA 9.49 5.86 5.67 7.94

Net Profit 5.10 2.85 2.53 4.14

EPS 6.07 3.4 3.01 4.9

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Provogue (India) Ltd.(1/3)

Investment Rationale:
 The company operates on a pan India basis through 228 outlets in 68 cities
 It has entered into a joint-venture with Liberty International Plc which has experience of over 30
years in retail infrastructure, to open shopping centres named ‘ Prozone Liberty' and with the
first mall slated to open in 2010 in Aurangabad the company has shown that it is on an
aggressive growth path
 The company has also opened shopping plazas under the name “Promart” which shows that
the company is continuously innovating itself and exploring new horizons for revenue
maximization
 With such aggressive expansion plans the company is well placed to take advantage of the
growth story of India in the years to come
Risks:
 The financials of the company have suffered a lot in the current year and it portrays a grim
picture at present as evident by the financials of FY09
 With less then expected rate of recovery it could take the company a lot more time to achieve
the growth rate it has planned
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Provogue (India) Ltd.(2/3)
Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009 Key Products
OVERVIEW
Business Description Listing NSE/BSE
• Garments
• Provogue is into the business of Current Price (Rs) 66.50 • Apparels
manufacturing and retailing garments and Market Cap (Rs Cr) 771.80
accessories for men and women in India
Free Float (%) 58.49

• Provogue is retailed through a chain of 52-WEEK HIGH (Rs) 142

exclusive brand outlets called "Provogue
Studio" at 70 locations 52-WEEK LOW (Rs) 26.30

BETA 1.09
• Provogue has also opened shopping 0.95
Key Management
plazas under the name “Promart” P/B (x)
Current P/E (x) 13.06 • Mr. Om Prakash Chawla:
Non-executive chairman;
PEG Ratio - B.Com&M.Com
Dividend Yield (%) .45 • Mr. Nikhil Chaturvedi:
Managing Director;
Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009
Price Performance (%) as on 2009
• Mr. Tim Eynon:Director; MBA
from INSEAD
Period Stock Sensex • Mr. Amitabh Taneja:Director;
PROMOTER 41.51 also M.D. Of Images
Multimedia Pvt. Ltd., chairman
FII 26.43 of India retail forum& Images
1M 4.15 5.21
DII 1.51 Fashion Forum
3M 70.08 23.76
Public 23.84
Others 6.71 1 Year -47.62 61.73

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Provogue (India) Ltd.(3/3)
Financials (Annual):
Financial Analysis:
Key Ratios (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales 159.73 239.02 337.81 363.56
• Sales has grown by 7% in FY09 standing at
Rs 363.56 crores
Growth (%) 38.59 49.64 41.33 7.62
• The company witnessed muted growth in the
EBIDTA 21.43 32.01 44.4 25.25 current fiscal on account of lower demand
EBIDTA Margins (%) 13.42 13.39 13.14 6.95 from consumers

Net Profit 12.89 19.16 25.4 59.21 • EBITDA margins have declined by 600bps in
Net Profit Margin (%) 8.07 8.02 7.52 16.29 the current fiscal and stand at 6.95% in
FY09 but PAT margins have shown an
EPS 7.96 10.08 12.78 5.09 increase on account of other income of Rs
BVPS 67.9 147.43 220.89 69.78 82 crore
ROE (%) 16.77 9.82 7.04 9.44 • EPS has declined by more than 100% and
ROCE (%) 9.85 9.68 4.58 6.27 stands at Rs 5.09 down from FY08 figure of
12.78
OCF Growth do .52 .1 .33 .41
Debt-Equity 0.49 0.23 0.48 0.32 • ROE has increased marginally to 9.44% in
Interest Coverage 5.43 4.35 2.99 0.93 FY09 while ROCE has also shown
marginal increase to 6.27%
Financials (Quarterly):
Key Ratios (%) Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 • Debt Equity ratio remains moderate in FY09
at 0.32 down marginally from FY08 level of
Net Sales 111.33 101.51 79 73.22 0.48
EBIDTA 8.77 9.25 10 10.7
• Interest coverage ratio is very poor at 0.93
Net Profit 7.83 7.22 8.34 6.74 times exposing the company’s inability to not
EPS 3.42 0.62 0.71 0.58 maintain its interest payments n case of a
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Koutons Retail India Ltd(1/3)
Investment Rationale:
 The company operates through 1400 exclusive retail outlets having the widest coverage
among all the existing companies catering to both upper and lower segments of the
middle class
 The company’s ability to penetrate the Tier1 and Tier 2 cities has positioned itself well to
take use of the growing demand in these cities
 The company is on a aggressive expansion spree and plans to open another 300-400
outlets in the next 3-4 years thus increasing its reach to the consumers even more
 The company has witnessed sales growth of CAGR 88% and profit growth at CAGR of
80% over the last 4 years

Risks:

 High debts and a lower Interest coverage ratio raises doubts over the financial health of
the company
 The spurt in expansion can go unwarranted if the demand does not rise as expected by
the company’s management
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Koutons Retail India Ltd(2/3)
Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009 Key Products
OVERVIEW
Business Description Listing NSE/BSE
• Fabric Processing
• Koutons Retail India Limited is an India Current Price (Rs) 363.95 • Manufacturing
based apparel manufacturing and retailing 1111.91
• IT
Market Cap (Rs Cr)
company • Apparels
Free Float (%) 33.86

• The Company is engaged in designing, 52-WEEK HIGH (Rs) 754

manufacturing and retailing apparel under
52-WEEK LOW (Rs) 324.10
the Koutons and Charlie Outlaw brands,
through a network of 1175 brand outlets as BETA 0.50
of March 31, 2008, across India Key Management
P/B (x) 2.61

Current P/E (x) 13.94 • Mr. D.P.S Kohli: Chairman;

B.Tech in mechanical Enng.
PEG Ratio 0.26 • Mr. B.S.Sawhney: Managing
Dividend Yield (%) 0.27 Director; B.Com from D.U.
• Mr. B.S.Sawhney: Deputy
Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009
Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009
Managing Director;

Period Stock Sensex

PROMOTER 66.14
FII 19.95
1M 3.47 5.21
DII 8.76
3M -7.84 23.76
Public 5.05
Others 0.10 1 Year -41.95 61.73

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Koutons Retail India Ltd(3/3)
Financials (Annual):
Financial Analysis:
Key Ratios (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009
• Sales have grown by 33.88% in FY09 over
Sales 158.38 633.53 793.4 1062.2 the previous year standing at Rs 1062
25.23 33.88 crores
Growth (%) 104.13 300
EBIDTA 24.80 66.38 152.4 223.8 • EBITDA margins have increased in FY09
19.21 21.07 standing at 21% an increase of 186 bps as
EBIDTA Margins (%) 15.69 10.48
compared to FY08 but PAT margin suffered
Net Profit 13.62 33.95 69.35 79.64 a decline of 120 bps on account of higher
8.74 7.5 interest costs
Net Profit Margin (%) 8.63 5.36
EPS - 11.13 22.84 26.11 • EPS has increased by 15% y-o-y, to Rs
26.11 per share in FY09
BVPS - 53.55 114.59 139.38
ROE (%) - 20.7 27.05 20.56 • ROE has suffered in the current fiscal and is
at 20.56% in the current fiscal declining
ROCE (%) - 11.04 13.36 13.42
mainly on account of lower margins
Debt-Equity - 1.28 1.21 1.47
3.43 2.36
• ROCE has remained the same as previous
Interest Coverage - 5.47
year and stands at 13.42%

Financials (Quarterly): • Debt-Equity has marginally increased to

Key Ratios (%) Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09
1.47 in FY09

Net Sales 282.3 241.7 378.9 201.7 • Interest coverage ratio has declined over the
48.2 43.5 94.8 48.3 previous years and stands at 2.36 times
EBIDTA
down from previous year figure of 3.43 times
Net Profit 19.5 13 35.8 11.5 on account of lower profitability and high
interest costs
EPS 6.39 4.26 11.74 3.77
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Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(1/3)
Investment Rationale:
 The company has been focusing on organic growth over the years by increasing the number of
stores under operation and currently has 123 operational stores on a pan India front
 The company has been increasing the brand equity of its flagship brand KILLER every year by
innovating it over the years and has successfully completed 20 years of operations
 The company has been able to maintain the brand image of its products among stiff
competition from the other well known foreign brands
 The company operates at 20% EBITDA margins and 14% PAT margins and is a low debt
company with a ratio of 0.16 which are quite good financials for a company in the apparels
industry
Risks:
 The biggest risk faced by the company is its inability in understanding the consumer’s
taste and preferences
 Expenses related to selling and distribution are high
 Availability of retail space according to need and preference

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Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(2/3)
Key Metrics as on 12th October 2009 Key Products
OVERVIEW
Business Description Listing NSE/BSE
• Garments
• The company manufactures and markets Current Price (Rs) 208.90
• Apparels
branded jeans, semi formal and casual wear Market Cap (Rs Cr) 256.47
for men and women • Accessories
Free Float (%) 26.07

•The company owns popular brands like 52-WEEK HIGH (Rs) 209.40
killer, easies, lawman, integriti, etc
52-WEEK LOW (Rs) 91.50

•The company has sales presence in Asia BETA 0.95

and Middle East as well Key Management
P/B (x) 1.7

•It has its own R&D team which keeps on Current P/E (x) 18.02 • Mr. Kewalchand P. Jain:
innovating designs Chairman & Managing
PEG Ratio - Director; Marticulate, Trustee
of Jatnobai Karmchandji
Dividend Yield (%) 1.43
charitable trust
Shareholder Pattern (%) as on 30th June,2009
Price Performance (%) as on 12th October 2009
• Mr. Hemant P. Jain:
Marticulate
Period Stock Sensex • Dr. Prakash K. Mody: PhD In
PROMOTER 73.93 organic chemistry, MBA from
JBIMS; Chairman & M.D. Of
FII 9.85
Unichem Laboratories,
1M 5.48 5.21
DII .99 member of young president
3M 51.76 23.76 Organization Inc.
Public 14.62

Others 0.61 1 Year 49.11 61.73

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Kewal Kiran Apparels Pvt Ltd.(3/3)
Financials (Annual):
Financial Analysis:
Key Ratios (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 • Sales in FY09 have witnessed a decline of
Sales 85.96 133.61 159.59 145.09 9% standing at Rs 145.09 crores

Growth (%) 229.22 55.43 19.44 - 9.09 • EBITDA margins have fallen by 500 bps and
EBIDTA 19.95 25.24 30.43 20.62 stands at 14.21% in FY09 and PAT margins
have suffered a fall of 300 bps standing at
EBIDTA Margins (%) 23.21 18.89 19.07 14.21 9.82% in FY09
Net Profit 11.66 18.65 21.12 14.25
• EPS has declined to Rs 11.59 in FY09 as
Net Profit Margin (%) 13.56 13.96 13.23 9.82 against Rs 17.82 in FY08
EPS 12.67 15.16 17.28 11.59
• BVPS has witnessed marginal increase in
BVPS 39.99 102.44 114.91 122.98 the current fiscal standing at Rs 122.98 but
up almost 3 times from the FY06 figures
ROE (%) 51.1 22.91 15.8 9.74

ROCE (%) 9.95 14.96 14.75 11.44 • ROE and ROCE have suffered significant
declines in the current fiscal standing at
Debt-Equity 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.16
9.74% and 11.44% respectively in FY09
Interest Coverage 13.58 8.03 9.37 5.75
• Debt-equity ratio remains very good at 0.16
Financials (Quarterly): and has been maintained at these levels
since the last 4 years
Key Ratios (%) Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09

Net Sales 48.42 35.24 33.99 33.28 • Interest Coverage ratio has declined over
the year and stands at 5.11 times in FY09
EBIDTA 7.75 4.26 6.54 8.26 which is a cause of concern because a
stable debt equity ratio shows that the EBIT
Net Profit 5.47 3.04 4.51 6.28
of the company is suffering over the years
EPS 4.45 2.47 3.67 5.11
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