What is Simulation?

Scenario analysis

Chapter 1

Last revision August 06, 2012

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

Slide 1

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

Topic 1 What Is Simulation?

What is Simulation?

A simulation: imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time:

When to use Simulation?

Simulation can be used for the purposes of:

Involves generation of an artificial history of a system. Observes that history and draws inferences about system characteristics. Analysis tool for predicting the effect of changes to existing systems. Design tool to predict performance of new systems.

Can be used as:

Many real-world systems are very complex that cannot be solved mathematically.

Hence, numerical, computer-based simulation can be used to imitate the system behavior.
01.Simulation_concepts Slide 3

Study and experiment with internal interactions of a complex system. Observe the effect of system alterations on model behavior. Gain knowledge about the system through design of simulation model. Use as a pedagogical device to reinforce analytic solution methodologies, also to verify analytic solutions. Experiment with new designs or policies before implementation. Determine machine requirements through simulating different capabilities. For training and learning. Show animation. Model complex system.
Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 4

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

When to use Simulation?

(Contd)

When NOT to use Simulation?

Simulation should not be used when:

Simulation can be used for the purposes of:

Explore new policies or procedures without disrupting ongoing operations of the real system. Test new hardware or physical systems without committing to acquisition. Test hypotheses about how or why certain phenomena occur. Study speed-up or slow-down of the phenomena under investigation. Study interactions of variables, and their importance to system performance. Perform bottleneck analysis. Understand how the system operates. Test what if questions.
Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 5

Problem can be solved by common sense. Problem can be solved analytically. If it is easier to perform direct experiments. If the costs exceed the savings. If the resources or time to perform simulation studies are not available. If no data, not even estimates, is available. If there is not enough time or personnel to verify/validate the model. If managers have unreasonable expectations: overestimate the power of simulation. If system behavior is too complex or cannot be defined.
Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 6

Chapt. 1 -- Handout 1

When NOT to use Simulation?

Disadvantages:

(Contd)

When NOT to use Simulation?

Disadvantages (contd):

(Contd)

Model building requires special training. Simulation results can be difficult to interpret. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive. Simulation is used in some cases when an analytical solution is possible (or even preferable).

Dont get exact answers, only approximations, estimates Also true of many other modern methods Can bound errors by machine roundoff Get random output (RIRO) from stochastic simulations Statistical design, analysis of simulation experiments Exploit: noise control, replicability, sequential sampling, variancereduction techniques Catch: standard statistical methods seldom work

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Areas of application

The applications of simulation are vast.

Popularity of Simulation

Has been consistently ranked as the most useful, popular tool in broader area of operations research / management science

The Winter Simulation Conference (www.wintersim.org): an excellent way to learn more about the latest in simulation applications and theory. Manufacturing Logistics, supply chain, and distribution. Transportation modes and traffic. Healthcare. Construction engineering and project management. Military. Business process simulation.
Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 9

Some areas of applications:

1978: M.S. graduates of CWRU O.R. Department after graduation

1. Statistical analysis 2. Forecasting 3. Systems Analysis 4. Information systems 5. Simulation

1979: Survey 137 large firms, which methods used?

1. Statistical analysis (93% used it) 2. Simulation (84%) 3. Followed by LP, PERT/CPM, inventory theory, NLP,

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

Slide 10

Popularity of Simulation (contd.)

Using Computers to Simulate

General-purpose languages (C, C++, C#, Java, Matlab, FORTRAN, others)

1980: (A)IIE O.R. division members

First in utility and interest simulation First in familiarity LP (simulation was second)

1983, 1989, 1993: Longitudinal study of corporate practice

1. Statistical analysis 2. Simulation

Tedious, low-level, error-prone But, almost complete flexibility Subroutines for list processing, bookkeeping, time advance Widely distributed, widely modified Usually static models (only very simple dynamic models) Financial scenarios, distribution sampling, SQC Examples in Kelton, Chapter 2 (one static, one dynamic) Add-ins are available (@RISK, Crystal Ball)
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Support packages for general-purpose languages

1989: Survey of surveys

Heavy use of simulation consistently reported

Since these surveys, hardware/software have improved, making simulation even more attractive

Spreadsheets

Historical impediment to simulation computer speed

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Prof. Luis E. Herrera

Chapt. 1 -- Handout 2

Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)

Simulation languages

Using Computers to Simulate (contd.)

High-level simulators

GPSS, SLX, SIMAN (on which Arena is based, included in Arena) Popular, some still in use Learning curve for features, effective use, syntax

Very easy, graphical interface Domain-restricted (manufacturing, communications) Limited flexibility model validity?

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Arena Promodel Simul8 Flexsim Extend

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Systems and System Environment

A system is a group of objects joined together in some regular interaction or interdependence to accomplish some purpose.

Model of a System

Studies of systems are often accomplished with a model of a system. A model: a representation of a system for the purpose of studying the system.

e.g., a production system: machines, component parts & workers operate jointly along an assembly line to produce vehicle. Affected by changes occurring outside the system.

System environment: outside the system, defining the boundary between system and it environment is important. Target systems in a simulation study: actual or planned

A simplification of the system. Study model instead of real system usually much easier, faster, cheaper, safer Should be sufficiently detailed to permit valid conclusions to be drawn about the real system. Model validity (any kind of model not just simulation)

Care in building to mimic reality faithfully Level of detail Get same conclusions from model as you would from system
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Prof. Luis E. Herrera 01.Simulation_concepts Slide 15

Should contain only the components that are relevant to the study.

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

Types of models

Types of Models

Physical (iconic) models

Tabletop material-handling models Mock-ups of fast-food restaurants Flight simulators Approximations, assumptions about systems operation Often represented via computer program in appropriate software Exercise program to try things, get results, learn about model behavior Mathematical model: uses symbolic notation and mathematical equations to represent a system.

Logical (mathematical) models

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Simulation is a type of mathematical model.

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Chapt. 1 -- Handout 3

Logical Models

If model is simple enough, use traditional mathematical analysis get exact results, lots of insight into model

Simulation Models

Static vs. Dynamic

Does time have a role in model? Can state change continuously, or only at discrete points in time? Discrete example: the number of jobs in queue changes when a new job arrives or when service is completed for another Continuous example: the head of water behind a dam Is everything for sure or is there uncertainty? Dynamic, Discrete-change, Stochastic
01.Simulation_concepts Slide 20

Queueing theory Differential equations Linear programming

Continuous-change vs. Discrete-change

But complex systems can seldom be validly represented by simple analytic model

Danger of over-simplifying assumptions model validity? Type III error working on the wrong problem

Deterministic vs. Stochastic

Often, complex system requires complex model, analytical methods dont apply what to do?

Most operational models:

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

Slide 19

Components of a Simulation System

An entity: an object of interest in the system, e.g., computing jobs in queue. An attribute: a property of an entity, e.g., priority class, or vector of resource requirements. An activity: represents a time period of a specified length, e.g. job receiving service. The state of a system: collection of variables necessary to describe the system at any time, relative to the objectives of the study, e.g. the number of busy servers, the number of jobs in queue. An event: an instantaneous occurrence that may change the system state, can be endogenous or exogenous, e.g. a new job arrival, or service time completion
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Components of a Simulation System

System Banking

Entities Attributes Activities Events - Customers - Checking account balance - Making Deposits - Arrival - Policemen - Customer's VIP status - Withdrawal - Departure - Riders - Origination - Salesmen - Destination

Rapid Rail

Production

- Products - Arrival time - Sub-assys - Priority of service - Routing Communication - Messages - Length - Destination

State Variables - Number of busy tellers - Number of customers waiting - Traveling - Arrival at a station - Number of riders waiting at - Eating - Arrival at destination each station - Number of riders in transit - Welding station - Arrival of product - Status of machines: busy, - Machining - Machine breakdown idle, or down - Inspection - Shift change - Number of parts in system - Transmitting - Transmission - Status of machines: busy, - Verifying complete idle, or down - Machine breakdown - Number of messages - Shift change waiting for transmission

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Steps in a Sim. Study

Four phases: Problem formulation, and setting objective and overall design (step 1 to 2). Modeling building and data collection (step 3 to 7) Running of the model (step 8 to 10). Implementation (step 11 to 12). An iterative process.

Example of a Simulation Study

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Chapt. 1 -- Handout 4

Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

Slide 27

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

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Chapt. 1 -- Handout 5

Example of a Simulation Study (Contd)

Prof. Luis E. Herrera

01.Simulation_concepts

Slide 31

Chapt. 1 -- Handout 6