Forecast Analysis
Forecast Analysis
Revenue:
Mechanical (analog) Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Digital electronic Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Sales of replacement parts
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
Non-warranty service
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
License fees and Royalties
Total Revenue
Notes
Description
Jan-June
Restated
December
2013
15,242
15,546
$402
$6,124,079
$394
$6,121,630
20,691
$525
$10,862,771
4%
0%
21,519
525
$11,297,282
4%
0%
22,379
525
$11,749,173
$842,691
842,354
842,017
126,479.39
$0
126,428.80
$0
$18,390,195
$18,839,249
$19,208,522
2.07%
$126,530
$1,250,000
$19,208,522
per unit
change in cost
Production - labor
2.0%
-2.0%
2014
$65
35,634
19,318
0.0%
$65
$2,383,026
36,760
19,928.89
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$876,871
1,578,368
0.0%
$65
$2,458,586
37,926
20,560.79
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$904,675
1,628,414
DRAFT
Student Name:
Student NetID:
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Mechanical (analog) Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Digital electronic Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Sales of replacement parts
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
Non-warranty service
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
License fees and Royalties
Total Revenue
2015
2016
2.0%
-2.0%
2017
-2.0%
-2.0%
2018
-5.0%
-2.0%
2019
-7.0%
-2.0%
2020
-10.0%
-2.0%
-10.0%
-2.0%
2021
-12.0%
-2.0%
15,857
15,540
14,763
13,730
12,357
11,121
9,787
$386
$6,119,181
$378
$5,876,862
$371
$5,471,358
$363
$4,986,596
$356
$4,398,177
$349
$3,879,193
$342
$3,345,416
4%
0%
23,275
525
$12,219,140
4%
1%
24,206
530
$12,834,985
8%
1%
26,142
536
$14,000,401
8%
1%
28,233
541
$15,271,638
8%
1%
30,492
546
$16,658,302
10%
1%
33,541
552
$18,507,374
10%
1%
36,895
557
$20,561,693
841,680
808,350
752,574
685,896
604,960
533,575
460,155
126,378.22
$0
121,373.65
$0
112,998.87
$0
102,987.17
$0
90,834.68
$0
80,116.19
$0
69,092.20
$0
$19,306,380
$19,641,570
$20,337,332
$21,047,116
$21,752,274
$23,000,257
$24,436,355
Production - labor
Production - allocated overhead
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
0.0%
$65
$2,536,773
39,132
21,214.65
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$933,445
1,680,201
-10.0%
$58
$2,318,909
39,746
24,779.55
-50.00%
$22.00
-15.00%
$545,150
981,270
0.0%
$58
$2,386,555
40,905
25,502.40
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$561,053
0.0%
$58
$2,448,278
41,963
26,161.97
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$575,563
0.0%
$58
$2,499,953
42,849
26,714.15
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$587,711
0.0%
$58
$2,605,760
44,662
27,844.79
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$612,585
0.0%
$58
$2,723,590
46,682
29,103.90
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$640,286
1,009,895
1,036,014
1,057,880
1,102,654
1,152,515
Page 2 of 15
DRAFT
Student Name:
Student NetID:
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Mechanical (analog) Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Digital electronic Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Sales of replacement parts
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
Non-warranty service
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
License fees and Royalties
Total Revenue
Period
2022
2023
-12.0%
-2.0%
Totals
-15.0%
-2.0%
8,612
7,320
139,876
$335
$2,885,086
$328
$2,403,277
$4,003
$51,610,855
10%
1%
40,585
563
$22,844,040
10%
1%
44,643
568
$25,379,729
331,910
$5,968
$181,323,757
396,837
330,566
$7,098,962
59,585.11
$0
49,634.40
$0
$26,185,549
$28,163,206
$1,065,909
$0
241,099,482
Production - labor
Production - allocated overhead
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
0.0%
$58
$2,870,332
49,197
30,671.97
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$674,783
0.0%
$58
$3,031,748
51,964
32,396.85
0.00%
$22.00
0.00%
$712,731
1,214,610
1,282,915
Page 3 of 15
$28,263,511
$7,624,853
DRAFT
Notes
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Factory overhead:
Description
Jan-June
Restated
$1,115,000
December
2013
1,770,277
1,126
0.00%
20,277
$655,277
1126
$1,115,000
2014
1,791,257
1,166
0.00%
20,980
$676,257
1166
$1,115,000
$635,000
$4,910,000
$4,910,000
$5,030,174
$5,154,518
Gross Margin
$14,298,522
$14,298,522
$13,360,020
$13,684,730
459,551
4,404,029
909,528
134,036
470,772
4,511,568
931,737
137,309
$6,170,000
$5,907,144
$6,051,385
$8,128,522
(2,438,557)
$5,689,965
$7,452,876
(2,235,863)
5,217,013
$7,633,345
(2,290,004)
5,343,342
5,689,965
(65,000,000)
5,217,013
(59,782,987)
5,343,342
5,343,342
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
8,128,522
selling price
2.50%
23.95%
4.95%
0.73%
32.1%
10.132%
RRR = 18%
$ (17,872,019)
Does the opportunity meet company requirements regarding the required rate of return?
This opportunity does not meet the requirements because the NPV is negative, provided a RRR of 18%.
The company can also see that the internal rate of return is far less than the RRR which is a sign that the investment is unfavorable.
What is the maximum price that buyer could pay and still receive the required rate of return?
If the price of $43.9 million is inputted into cell E66 you can see that the IRR meets the RRR.
Therefore, the company can offer $43.9 million and still obtain the 18% RRR
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 4 of 15
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Factory overhead:
2015
1,812,967
1,206
0.00%
21,710
$697,967
1206
$1,115,000
2016
1,541,951
614
30.00%
7,734
$705,701
614
$836,250
2017
1,556,560
1,159
0.00%
14,609
$720,310
1159
$836,250
2018
1,569,890
1,058
0.00%
13,330
$733,640
1058
$836,250
2019
1,581,050
886
0.00%
11,160
$744,800
886
$836,250
2020
1,603,900
1,814
0.00%
22,850
$767,650
1814
$836,250
2021
1,629,347
2,020
0.00%
25,447
$793,097
2020
$836,250
$5,283,185
$4,406,011
$4,504,168
$4,593,732
$4,668,714
$4,822,245
$4,993,222
$14,023,194
$15,235,559
$15,833,164
$16,453,384
$17,083,561
$18,178,012
$19,443,133
482,445
4,623,435
954,840
140,713
490,821
4,703,705
971,417
143,156
508,208
4,870,324
1,005,828
148,227
525,944
5,040,301
1,040,932
153,400
543,566
5,209,170
1,075,807
158,540
574,751
5,508,034
1,137,529
167,636
610,638
5,851,946
1,208,554
178,103
$6,532,587
$6,760,578
$6,987,083
$7,387,949
$7,849,241
Operating income
$7,821,761
Less: 30% income tax
(2,346,528)
Net income (and approximate cash flow for this project) 5,475,233
$8,926,459
(2,677,938)
6,248,521
$9,300,577
(2,790,173)
6,510,404
$9,692,806
(2,907,842)
6,784,965
$10,096,478
(3,028,943)
7,067,534
$10,790,063
(3,237,019)
7,553,044
$11,593,892
(3,478,168)
8,115,724
6,248,521
6,248,521
6,510,404
6,510,404
6,784,965
6,784,965
Gross Margin
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
5,475,233
5,475,233
7,067,534
7,067,534
7,553,044
7,553,044
8,115,724
8,115,724
Does the opportunity meet company requirements regarding the required rate of return?
This opportunity does not meet the requirements because the NPV is negative, provided a RRR of 18%.
The company can also see that the internal rate of return is far less than the RRR which is a sign that the investment is unfavorable.
What is the maximum price that buyer could pay and still receive the required rate of return?
If the price of $43.9 million is inputted into cell E66 you can see that the IRR meets the RRR.
Therefore, the company can offer $43.9 million and still obtain the 18% RRR
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 5 of 15
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Factory overhead:
Period
2022
1,661,038
2,515
0.00%
31,691
$824,788
2515
$836,250
2023
1,695,898
2,767
0.00%
34,860
$859,648
2767
$836,250
Totals
$8,179,136
$10,035,000
$5,206,153
$5,440,377
$54,102,500
$20,979,396
$22,722,829
$186,996,982
654,348
6,270,838
1,295,064
190,852
703,768
6,744,441
1,392,874
205,266
$6,024,813
$77,443,949
Gross Margin
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
Operating income
$12,568,294
Less: 30% income tax
(3,770,488)
Net income (and approximate cash flow for this project) 8,797,806
Purchase and Residual Value
Net aggregate cash flow (estimated)
Net aggregate cash flow (estimated) with acquisition
8,797,806
8,797,806
$13,676,481
(4,102,944)
9,573,537
47,867,683
57,441,220
57,441,220
11,924,109
$109,553,033
($32,865,910)
$76,687,123
Does the opportunity meet company requirements regarding the required rate of return?
This opportunity does not meet the requirements because the NPV is negative, provided a RRR of 18%.
The company can also see that the internal rate of return is far less than the RRR which is a sign that the investment is unfavorable.
What is the maximum price that buyer could pay and still receive the required rate of return?
If the price of $43.9 million is inputted into cell E66 you can see that the IRR meets the RRR.
Therefore, the company can offer $43.9 million and still obtain the 18% RRR
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 6 of 15
DRAFT
Notes
Acquisition Opportunity
Jan - June 2013
Confidential -- Board Members only
Actual
Would the opportunity provide a return greater than buyers opportunity costs?
With a $65 million price of an investment that generates negative NPV,
the buyer would be better off investing in similar of the bonds they currently hold.
The interest payments alone would prove more favorable than negative returns.
Description
Jan-June
Restated
December
2013
2014
Is the plan to move production offshore beneficial to the buyer? By how much?
It does benefit the buyer by increasing the target company's gross margin by $5,949,599 (used projection(2) worksheet to determine figures without Offshoring)
Describe how the buyer might manage fixed costs in a way other than moving production offshore.
One way to reduce fixed cost is to improved efficiency with better equipment and training.
Improved efficiency allows more units to be produced and the fixed cost per unit will decrease.
Another way is to renegotiate leases on land and equipment.
Calculate and report the total revenue, production costs, gross margin, selling costs, operating incomelife of this investment,
and net income for the first five years, the second five years and the life of this investment.
See Spreadsheet Above
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 7 of 15
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
2015
2016
Revenue:
Would the opportunity provide a return greater than buyers opportunity costs?
With a $65 million price of an investment that generates negative NPV,
the buyer would be better off investing in similar of the bonds they currently hold.
The interest payments alone would prove more favorable than negative returns.
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Is the plan to move production offshore beneficial to the buyer? By how much?
It does benefit the buyer by increasing the target company's gross margin by $5,949,599 (used projection(2) worksheet to determine figures without Offshoring)
Describe how the buyer might manage fixed costs in a way other than moving production offshore.
One way to reduce fixed cost is to improved efficiency with better equipment and training.
Improved efficiency allows more units to be produced and the fixed cost per unit will decrease.
Another way is to renegotiate leases on land and equipment.
Calculate and report the total revenue, production costs, gross margin, selling costs, operating incomelife of this investment,
and net income for the first five years, the second five years and the life of this investment.
See Spreadsheet Above
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 8 of 15
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Period
Totals
Is the plan to move production offshore beneficial to the buyer? By how much?
It does benefit the buyer by increasing the target company's gross margin by $5,949,599 (used projection(2) worksheet to determine figures without Offshori
Describe how the buyer might manage fixed costs in a way other than moving production offshore.
One way to reduce fixed cost is to improved efficiency with better equipment and training.
Improved efficiency allows more units to be produced and the fixed cost per unit will decrease.
Another way is to renegotiate leases on land and equipment.
Calculate and report the total revenue, production costs, gross margin, selling costs, operating incomelife of this investment,
and net income for the first five years, the second five years and the life of this investment.
See Spreadsheet Above
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection
Page 9 of 15
DRAFT
Notes
Description
Jan-June
Restated
December
2013
15,242
15,546
$402
$6,124,079
$394
$6,121,630
20,691
$525
$10,862,771
4%
0%
21,519
525
$11,297,282
4%
0%
22,379
525
$11,749,173
$842,691
842,354
842,017
126,479.39
$0
126,428.80
$0
$18,390,195
$18,839,249
$19,208,522
2.07%
$126,530
$1,250,000
$19,208,522
per unit
change in cost
Production - labor
2.0%
-2.0%
2014
$65
35,634
19,318
0.0%
$65
$2,383,026
36,760
19,928.89
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$876,871
1,578,368
0.0%
$65
$2,458,586
37,926
20,560.79
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$904,675
1,628,414
DRAFT
Student Name:
Student NetID:
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Mechanical (analog) Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Digital electronic Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Sales of replacement parts
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
Non-warranty service
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
License fees and Royalties
Total Revenue
2015
2016
2.0%
-2.0%
2017
-2.0%
-2.0%
2018
-5.0%
-2.0%
2019
-7.0%
-2.0%
2020
-10.0%
-2.0%
-10.0%
-2.0%
15,857
15,540
14,763
13,730
12,357
11,121
$386
$6,119,181
$378
$5,876,862
$371
$5,471,358
$363
$4,986,596
$356
$4,398,177
$349
$3,879,193
4%
0%
23,275
525
$12,219,140
4%
1%
24,206
530
$12,834,985
8%
1%
26,142
536
$14,000,401
8%
1%
28,233
541
$15,271,638
8%
1%
30,492
546
$16,658,302
10%
1%
33,541
552
$18,507,374
841,680
808,350
752,574
685,896
604,960
533,575
126,378.22
$0
121,373.65
$0
112,998.87
$0
102,987.17
$0
90,834.68
$0
80,116.19
$0
$19,306,380
$19,641,570
$20,337,332
$21,047,116
$21,752,274
$23,000,257
Production - labor
Production - allocated overhead
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection (2)
0.0%
$65
$2,536,773
39,132
21,214.65
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$933,445
0.0%
$65
$2,576,566
39,746
21,547.43
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$948,087
0.0%
$65
$2,651,728
40,905
22,176.00
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$975,744
0.0%
$65
$2,720,309
41,963
22,749.54
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,000,980
0.0%
$65
$2,777,725
42,849
23,229.70
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,022,107
0.0%
$65
$2,895,289
44,662
24,212.86
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,065,366
1,680,201
1,706,557
1,756,339
1,801,763
1,839,792
1,917,659
Page 11 of 15
DRAFT
Student Name:
Student NetID:
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Mechanical (analog) Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Digital electronic Widgets
Change in unit sales
Change in pricing
Unit sales
Selling prices
Sales revenue
Sales of replacement parts
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
Non-warranty service
% of analog sales
Sales revenue
License fees and Royalties
Total Revenue
Period
2021
2022
-12.0%
-2.0%
2023
-12.0%
-2.0%
Totals
-15.0%
-2.0%
9,787
8,612
7,320
139,876
$342
$3,345,416
$335
$2,885,086
$328
$2,403,277
$4,003
$51,610,855
10%
1%
36,895
557
$20,561,693
10%
1%
40,585
563
$22,844,040
10%
1%
44,643
568
$25,379,729
331,910
$5,968
$181,323,757
460,155
396,837
330,566
$7,098,962
69,092.20
$0
59,585.11
$0
49,634.40
$0
$24,436,355
$26,185,549
$28,163,206
$1,065,909
$0
241,099,482
Production - labor
Production - allocated overhead
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection (2)
0.0%
$65
$3,026,211
46,682
25,307.74
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,113,541
0.0%
$65
$3,189,258
49,197
26,671.28
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,173,536
0.0%
$65
$3,368,609
51,964
28,171.17
0.00%
$44.00
0.00%
$1,239,532
2,004,373
2,112,365
2,231,157
Page 12 of 15
$30,584,080
$11,253,882
DRAFT
Factory overhead:
Notes
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Description
Jan-June
Restated
$1,750,000
change in total unit production
change in variable overhead cost
additonal variable overhead
$635,000 $18 per unit
change in total unit production
$1,115,000
December
2013
2014
$1,115,000
1,770,277
1,126
0.00%
20,277
$655,277
1126
$1,115,000
1,791,257
1,166
0.00%
20,980
$676,257
1166
$1,115,000
$635,000
$4,910,000
$4,910,000
$5,030,174
$5,154,518
Gross Margin
$14,298,522
$14,298,522
$13,360,020
$13,684,730
459,551
4,404,029
909,528
134,036
470,772
4,511,568
931,737
137,309
$6,170,000
$5,907,144
$6,051,385
$8,128,522
(2,438,557)
$5,689,965
$7,452,876
(2,235,863)
5,217,013
$7,633,345
(2,290,004)
5,343,342
5,689,965
(65,000,000)
5,217,013
(59,782,987)
5,343,342
5,343,342
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
8,128,522
selling price
9.174%
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection (2)
2.50%
23.95%
4.95%
0.73%
32.1%
RRR = 18%
Page 13 of 15
$ (19,613,285)
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Factory overhead:
2015
1,812,967
1,206
0.00%
21,710
$697,967
1206
$1,115,000
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1,541,951
614
30.00%
7,734
$705,701
614
$836,250
1,556,560
1,159
0.00%
14,609
$720,310
1159
$836,250
1,569,890
1,058
0.00%
13,330
$733,640
1058
$836,250
1,581,050
886
0.00%
11,160
$744,800
886
$836,250
1,603,900
1,814
0.00%
22,850
$767,650
1814
$836,250
$5,283,185
$5,066,605
$5,184,032
$5,291,179
$5,380,882
$5,564,555
$14,023,194
$14,574,965
$15,153,300
$15,755,937
$16,371,393
$17,435,702
482,445
4,623,435
954,840
140,713
490,821
4,703,705
971,417
143,156
508,208
4,870,324
1,005,828
148,227
525,944
5,040,301
1,040,932
153,400
543,566
5,209,170
1,075,807
158,540
574,751
5,508,034
1,137,529
167,636
$6,532,587
$6,760,578
$6,987,083
$7,387,949
Operating income
Less: 30% income tax
Net income (and approximate cash flow for this project)
$10,047,753
(3,014,326)
7,033,427
Gross Margin
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
$7,821,761
(2,346,528)
5,475,233
$8,265,865
(2,479,760)
5,786,106
$8,620,713
(2,586,214)
6,034,499
$8,995,359
(2,698,608)
6,296,751
$9,384,310
(2,815,293)
6,569,017
5,475,233
5,475,233
5,786,106
5,786,106
6,034,499
6,034,499
6,296,751
6,296,751
6,569,017
6,569,017
7,033,427
7,033,427
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection (2)
Page 14 of 15
DRAFT
Acquisition Opportunity
Confidential -- Board Members only
Revenue:
Factory overhead:
Period
2021
2022
2023
1,629,347
2,020
0.00%
25,447
$793,097
2020
$836,250
1,661,038
2,515
0.00%
31,691
$824,788
2515
$836,250
1,695,898
2,767
0.00%
34,860
$859,648
2767
$836,250
Totals
$8,179,136
$10,035,000
$5,769,098
$6,023,832
$6,304,039
$60,052,099
$18,667,257
$20,161,718
$21,859,167
$181,047,384
610,638
5,851,946
1,208,554
178,103
654,348
6,270,838
1,295,064
190,852
703,768
6,744,441
1,392,874
205,266
$6,024,813
$9,046,348
$77,443,949
$12,812,819
(3,843,846)
8,968,973
44,844,867
53,813,840
53,813,840
$103,603,434
($31,081,030)
$72,522,404
Gross Margin
Selling costs
Marketing
Advertising
Distribution
Customer relations
Operating income
$10,818,016
Less: 30% income tax
(3,245,405)
Net income (and approximate cash flow for this project)
7,572,611
Purchase and Residual Value
Net aggregate cash flow (estimated)
Net aggregate cash flow (estimated) with acquisition
7,572,611
7,572,611
$11,750,616
(3,525,185)
8,225,431
8,225,431
8,225,431
11,924,109
File: 224528747.xlsx.ms_office
Tab: Projection (2)
Page 15 of 15
DRAFT