July 16, 2013

Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends:

Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections
2013 Edition
David Feldman
1
, Galen Barbose
2
, Robert Margolis
1
, Nam Darghouth
2
,
Ted James
1
, Samantha Weaver
2
, Alan Goodrich
1
, and Ryan Wiser
2

1
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
2
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

PR-6A20-60207
Contents
2
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

There exists a need for reliable and comprehensive information on
PV system pricing
Rapid market growth and changes to PV system pricing in recent years
Policy support for PV deployment premised on stimulating cost reductions
through market scale and development
DOE SunShot Initiative seeks to reduce PV system prices 75% over the
2010-2020 period.
This briefing provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and
projected near-term PV system pricing trends in the United States,
drawing on several ongoing research activities at LBNL and NREL:
LBNLs annual Tracking the Sun report series
NRELs bottom-up PV cost modeling
NRELs synthesis of PV market data and projections.
Introduction
3
Reported pricing data that, among ~50,000 PV systems installed in 2012:
Res. and small com. (10 kW) was $5.30/W (median)
Large com. (>100 kW) was $4.62/W (median)
Utility-scale (crystalline, fixed-tilt, >2 MW) was $3.35/W (capacity weighted average).
Modeled overnight capital cost for systems quoted in Q4 2011 (expected to be installed in 2012):
Residential (5.1 kW) was $4.22/W
Commercial (221 kW) was $3.22/W
Utility-scale (191.5 MW) was $2.50/W.
Delta between reported pricing and modeled cost is due to various factors, such as inefficient
pricing, timing, geographic location, and project specifics.
Reported installed prices of residential and commercial PV systems declined 6%7% per year, on
average, from 19982012, and by 6%14% from 20112012, depending on system size.
In near future analysts expect system prices to continue to fall, but for module prices to stabilize
(Module ASP projected to be between $0.50/W - $0.75/W by 2014 ).
Modeled overnight capital cost for systems quoted in Q4 2012 (expected to be installed in 2013):
Residential (5.1 kW) was $3.69/W, a reduction of 13% from Q4 2011
Commercial (222.5 kW) was $2.61/W, a reduction of 19% from Q4 2011
Utility-scale (192.8 MW) was $1.92/W, a reduction of 23% from Q4 2011.


Executive Summary
4
Note: All PV installed price data are reported in terms of real 2012 dollars per Watt-DC.
Reported, Bottom-Up, and Analyst-Projected
Average U.S. PV System Prices over Time
5
Note: The reported system price for the residential market is representative of the median price reported for systems less than or equal to 10 kW in size. The modeled
residential system price represents a ~5 kW system. The reported system price for the commercial market is representative of the median price reported for systems
greater than 100 kW in size. The modeled commercial system price represents a ~220 kW rooftop system. The reported system price for the utility-scale market
represents the capacity-weighted average reported price for ground-mounted systems greater than 2 MW in size, with an average project size of 16.4 MW. The
modeled system price of utility-scale systems represents a ~190 MW fixed-tilt ground-mounted system. Bottom-up system prices are representative of bids by an
installer in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The Global Module Price Index is the average module selling price for the first buyer (P Mints SPV Market Research).
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P2014 P
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Installation Year
Analyst Expectations, Distributed PV
Analyst Expectations, Utility-Scale
Reported System Price, Residential (Median)
Reported System Price, Commercial (Median)
Reported System Price, Utility (Cap-Wtd. Avg.)
Modeled System Overnight Capital Cost, Residential
Modeled System Overnight Capital Cost, Commercial
Modeled System Overnight Capital Cost, Utility
Analyst Expectations of Module Price
Global Module Price Index
Contents
6
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

Derived from project-level data reported for residential, commercial, and
utility-scale PV systems installed through year-end 2012, with a limited set of
results presented for the first half of 2013
Distributed PV: 47 PV incentive programs spanning 24 states provided project-
level installed price data for PV systems funded through current and previous
programs
Utility-scale PV: Data sourced from Section 1603 Grant Program, FERC Form
1, SEC filings, company presentations, trade press articles
All projects for which the reported installed price was deemed likely to
represent an appraised value rather than an actual transaction price were
eliminated from the data sample
Final cleaned data sample consists of >200,000 PV systems totaling 4.7 GW of
installed capacity; represents approximately 65% of all grid-connected PV
capacity installed in the United States through 2012 and about 50% of all 2012
capacity additions.
Data Sources and Methodology for
Reported Installed Prices
7
Median Reported Installed Price of Residential and
Commercial PV Systems over Time
8
Since 1998, installed PV system prices have fallen by 6-7% per year on average
From 2011 to 2012, installed prices fell by $0.88/W (14%) for systems 10 kW and by
$0.30/W (6%) for systems >100 kW
By comparison, global annual average module prices fell by $0.52/W from 2011-2012.
Note: Median installed prices are shown only if 15 or more observations are available for the individual size range. The Global Module Price Index is the average
module selling price for the first buyer (P Mints SPV Market Research).
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
1998
n=34
0.2 MW
1999
n=165
0.8 MW
2000
n=186
0.8 MW
2001
n=1,308
6 MW
2002
n=2,449
18 MW
2003
n=3,461
31 MW
2004
n=5,626
44 MW
2005
n=5,754
64 MW
2006
n=8,887
91 MW
2007
n=12,936
133 MW
2008
n=14,165
241 MW
2009
n=24,664
288 MW
2010
n=36,780
494 MW
2011
n=42,397
878 MW
2012
n=49,717
940 MW
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Installation Year
10 kW
10-100 kW
>100 kW
Residential & Commercial PV
(Median Values)
Global Module Price Index
Preliminary Price Trends for Systems
Installed in 2013: A Focus on California
9
Data from the California Solar Initiative (CSI) program show that installed prices have
continued to fall into 2013
Median installed prices in CSI fell by roughly $0.53-0.77/W (10-15%) during the first half
of 2013, relative to 2012, across the three size ranges shown.
$5.69 $5.30 $5.00 $4.97 $4.77 $4.23
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
10 kW 10-100 kW >100 kW
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2012 2013 (H1)
CSI Program
(Median Values)

Variation in Installed Price by System Size:
Residential and Commercial PV Systems in 2012
10
Installed prices exhibit clear economies of scale, with the median installed price for the
largest commercial systems 38% lower than for the smallest residential systems (and
lower installed prices for utility-scale PV, as shown on later slides)
Scale economies are especially pronounced at the small end of the size spectrum
Substantial variability in installed prices exists within each size range, reflecting regional,
local, project/site-specific, and installer-specific drivers.
$7.12 $5.56 $5.10 $4.94 $4.90 $4.64 $4.64 $4.54 $4.44
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
2 kW
n=1,986
3 MW
2-5 kW
n=17,668
64 MW
5-10 kW
n=21,931
154 MW
10-30 kW
n=5,389
77 MW
30-100 kW
n=1,314
72 MW
100-250 kW
n=687
109 MW
250-500 kW
n=429
151 MW
500-1000 kW
n=200
138 MW
>1000 kW
n=113
173 MW
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System Size Range (kW
DC
)
Residential & Commercial
PV Systems Installed in 2012
(Median and 20
th
/80
th
Percentiles)
Variation in Installed Price by State:
Residential and Small Commercial (10 kW) PV in 2012
11
The median installed price differs by roughly $2.0/W between the lowest- and highest-
priced states, though similar variability also exists within individual states
California, a relatively high cost state, pulls the overall sample median upward
Installed price differentials across states reflect a wide array of potential factors: market
size and maturity, incentive levels, regulatory costs, sales tax, and others.
Note: Numbers in parentheses below each state indicate the number of observations; median installed prices are shown only if 15 or more observations are available
for a given state. CO and MN data are based on aggregated statistics provided the PV program administrator rather than project-level data.
$3.9 $4.1 $4.6 $4.6 $4.6 $4.7 $4.8 $4.8 $5.0 $5.0 $5.0 $5.1 $5.1 $5.2 $5.3 $5.4 $5.7 $5.7 $5.7 $5.8 $5.9
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
TX
(803)
CO
(2,431)
NJ
(3,320)
NH
(175)
FL
(33)
DC
(234)
AZ
(5,010)
NV
(52)
PA
(501)
VT
(378)
MD
(431)
MA
(2,733)
OR
(1,114)
CT
(226)
NM
(684)
NY
(1,246)
MN
(112)
CA
(24,094)
NC
(344)
IL
(105)
WI
(99)
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State (Sample Size)
Systems 10 kW
DC
Installed in 2012
(Median and 20
th
/80
th
Percentiles)
Variation in Installed Price by State:
Large Commercial (>100 kW) PV Systems in 2012
12
A large disparity in median installed price ($2.9/W) between the lowest- and highest-
priced states also exists among large commercial systems (though some caution is
warranted, given small sample sizes)
Partly reflects differences across states in customer segments (e.g., roughly 2/3
rds
of CA
large commercial projects in 2012 were government/non-profit).
Note: Numbers in parentheses below each state indicate the number of observations; median installed prices are shown only if 15 or more observations are available
for a given state. CO data are based on aggregated statistics provided by the PV program administrator rather than project-level data.
$3.21 $3.70 $3.97 $3.99 $4.15 $4.49 $5.01 $6.12
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
CO
(19)
PA
(26)
MA
(121)
NC
(63)
NV
(16)
NJ
(489)
CA
(546)
AZ
(119)
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State (Sample Size)
Systems >100 kW
DC
Installed in 2012
(Median and 20
th
/80
th
Percentiles)
Installed Price Data for Utility-Scale PV:
Important Notes and Caveats
13
Utility-scale PV is defined as ground-mounted systems 2 MW, regardless of
whether electricity is delivered to utility or customer
Analysis considers only entire projects (not individual phases)
Project sample consists of 191 fully operational projects installed through year-
end 2012, totaling roughly 1,600 MW (~70% of U.S. total)
A few important caveats:
Small sample size that includes many 2-10 MW systems as well as a number
of larger one-off projects with atypical characteristics
Lag in component pricing and market conditions between the time that a
project was contracted and when it was installed
Data reliability is somewhat mixed depending on the data source available
for any individual project
Focus is on installed price rather than levelized cost of electricity, and thus
ignores performance differences across system configurations.
Installed Price of Utility-Scale PV Projects
Over Time
14
Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.35/W for crystalline, fixed-tilt projects
installed in 2012, down from $3.59/W in 2011, a 7% decline YoY
Capacity-weighted average installed price was $3.60/W for crystalline tracking systems
and $3.23/W for thin-film, fixed-tilt systems completed in 2012
A wide distribution in installed prices is observed, partially reflecting variation in system
size (shown on following slide) and other project characteristics.
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
n=11 (103 MW) n=18 (236 MW) n=53 (502 MW) n=106 (744 MW)
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Installation Year
Crystalline, Fixed-Tilt Crystalline, Tracking
Thin-Film, Fixed-Tilt Other Configurations
Cap-Wtd. Averages
Ground-Mounted Systems 2 MW
DC
2007-2009 2010 2012 2011
Variation in Installed Price of 2012 Utility-
Scale PV Projects by Size and Configuration
15
Larger (>10 MW) utility-scale systems vary in price within a relatively narrow range
from roughly $2.50/W to $4.00/W, while smaller utility-scale projects span a much
broader range that includes a number of high-priced systems (>$5/W)
Among the relatively small number of >10 MW systems, capacity-weighted average
prices were $3.08/W for crystalline, fixed-tilt; $3.56/W for crystalline with tracking; and
$3.14/W for thin-film, fixed tilt systems.
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
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System Size (MW
DC
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Crystalline, Fixed-Tilt
Crystalline, Tracking
Thin-Film, Fixed-Tilt
Trendline (All Systems)
Ground-Mounted Systems 2 MW
DC
Installed in 2012

Contents
16
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

Detailed cost models for specific PV system designs account for all
materials, labor, overhead and profit, land acquisition and preparation costs,
and regulatory costs for a PV system up to the point of grid tie-in
Better able to determine individual components contributions to total
system cost
NREL cost models are compiled from numerous industry and primary
sources, for each component of a system incurred by a manufacturer
and/or installer, and validated with manufacturers and installers
Dialogue created differentiates the interview method from the survey
method by allowing for greater specificity and feedback of results
The area of each modeled system is kept constant across years, but it
increases in capacity based on improved module efficiencies.
Methodology for Bottom-Up Modeling
17
$6.81
$5.97
$4.22
$3.69
$5.04
$4.67
$3.22
$2.61
$4.30
$3.68
$2.50
$1.92
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012
Residential Commercial Utility ground mount (Fixed axis)
2
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BOS
Inverter
Module
Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost
of PV Systems by Sector, Q4 09 - Q4 12
18
Since Q4 2009, the overnight capital cost of systems has fallen between 14%
18% per year
50% - 75% of reduction attributed to module price reductions
From Q4 11 to Q4 12, the overnight capital cost of systems fell between
$0.53/W - $0.61/W, or 13% to 23%.
were chosen based on typical system sizes, then adjusted for optimal inverter configuration. System
sizing for utility-scale benchmarks were chosen for comparison purposes against pricing reported from
DOEs Energy Information Administration (2010).
Note: Standard crystalline silicon modules (13.5% efficiency in Q4 2009 to 15.0% in Q4 2012). System size (residential: 4.6 kW in Q4 2009 to
5.1 kW in Q4 2012; commercial: 202.0 kW in Q4 2009 to 222.5 kW in Q4 2012; utility-scale: 174.6 MW in Q4 2009 to 192.8 MW to Q4 2012).
The increase in module efficiency is the cause for increased system size. Modeled system sizes in the residential and commercial rooftop sectors
Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost
of Utility-Scale PV Systems by Size
19
Efficiencies of scale achieved in PV utility-scale bottom-up modeled overnight
capital costs
22-26% reduction in costs from 5 MW to 185 MW
Most of this cost reduction achieved by increasing size from 5MW to
20 MW (72%).
Note: Standard crystalline silicon modules (14.9% efficiency in Q4 2011 and 15.0% in Q4 2012).
$3.16
$2.80
$2.65
$2.45
$2.59
$2.25
$2.11
$1.92
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
5 MW 10 MW 20 MW 185 MW
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System Size Range (MW
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Q4 2011
Q4 2012
Contents
20
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

$5.3
$4.1
$5.7
$4.2
$4.6
$3.2
$5.0
$3.2
$3.4
$3.1
$2.5
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Median
reported
price - U.S.
Median
reported
price - CO
Median
reported
price - CA
Modeled
overnight
capital cost
- U.S.
Median
reported
price - U.S.
Median
reported
price - CO
Median
reported
price - CA
Modeled
overnight
capital cost
- U.S.
Cap. w. avg.
reported
price -
Fixed Tilt
(2 MW)
Cap. w. avg.
reported
price -
Fixed Tilt
(>10MW)
Modeled
overnight
capital cost
- U.S.
Residential Commercial Utility-Scale Grount-Mounted
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2012 Reported Median (Residential/Commercial) and
Capacity-Weighted Average (Utility-Scale) Prices vs. Q4 2011
Bottom-Up Benchmark Overnight Capital Cost
21
overnight capital cost = 5.1 kW; median commercial reported size (> 100 kW) = 258 kW; commercial
bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost = 221 kW; cap.-weighted average ground-mounted system (2
MW) reported size= 16 MW; utility-scale bottom-up benchmark overnight cap. cost = 191.5 MW.
Note: Many factors contribute to the reported price and overnight capital cost differing values including the additional costs above and beyond
the overnight capital cost of a project, such as third-party financing; different system sizing; installation time lag; and various methods for
calculating system sales price. Error bars for reported price data represent 20/80 percentile of datasets. The costs included in the bottom-up
benchmarks represent national averages; there is significant cost variation for each component, depending on the installer, market, or time frame.
The above data is representative of the following system sizing: median residential reported size= 5.1 kW; residential bottom-up benchmark
Reasons for Deviations Between Reported Price and
Bottom-Up Benchmark Overnight Capital Cost
22
Price vs. cost
Reported pricing reflects what a customer will pay for a system (i.e., what the market
will bear). A customers purchase price may be significantly higher than it would be
elsewhere, regardless of the underlying cost to the installer, due to:
Higher electricity rates (e.g., CA)
Greater incentive programs (which may lower a customers upfront cash outlay,
though not the price paid to the installer)
Barriers to entry within specific markets, etc.
The bottom-up benchmarks are reflective of consistent, transparent assumptions of the
cost and representative margins of each subcomponent to an installer, regardless of
market conditions or incentives.
Timing
Reported pricing generally reflects module and other component pricing at the time
that installation contracts were signed (could precede installation date by more than a
year for large projects)
Bottom-up benchmark costs are contemporaneous with time subcomponent
pricing estimates. Q4 benchmarks are compared with the following year, but
may not fully capture lag between price quote and installation date.
Geographic location
Reported price is weighted heavily toward California and New Jersey
Bottom-up benchmark based on national averages.
Project specifics
Projects within dataset of report pricing includes systems not currently
modeled in bottom-up benchmark, such as those using high-efficiency panels,
high proportion of government facilities, and relatively small utility-scale
projects.

Reasons for Deviations Between Reported Price and
Bottom-Up Benchmark Overnight Capital Cost (contd.)
23
Contents
24
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

Installed Price of Residential & Commercial PV Systems:
U.S. Systems Installed in 2012 vs. German Systems Quoted in 2012
25
Installed prices in the United States are high compared to most other major
international PV markets, due largely to differences in soft costs
The disparity is particularly stark in comparison to Germany, where installed prices
are $2.61-2.68/W (51-56%) lower across the three size ranges shown (on a pre-
tax/VAT basis)
Suggestive of potential for near-term cost savings in the United States.
$5.03 $4.75 $4.46 $2.35 $2.14 $1.87
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
10 kW 10-100 kW >100 kW
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System Size Range (kW
DC
)
U.S. Systems Installed in 2012
German Systems Quoted in 2012
Residential & Commercial PV
(Median Values)
$4.12
$2.46
$1.95
$1.38
$0.73
$0.59
$0.54
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P
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Median and Range of Analyst Expectations of
Module Average Selling Price
26
Note: P = projection. Data represent the median, max., and min. figures from: BNEF (02/08/13, 03/25/13); Goldman
Sachs (01/03/13); GTM Research (Oct. 2010, Jan. 2013); Photon Consulting (Jan. 2011, March 2012, March 2013), UBS
(03/10/13). Inflation adjusted 2008-2012: CPI; inflation adjusted 2013-14: EIA, AEO, Table 20, Gross Domestic
Product, August 2012.
Module prices in 2012 continued recent trend of dramatic reductions
Since 2008 has fallen on average 35% per year
Mixed forecasts on future module ASP
However, not expected to increase or decrease dramatically in price
By 2014 ASP projected to be between $0.50/W - $0.75/W
Major system price reductions are not expected to come from PV module price alone,
as was the case in previous years.

Historic Projection
$0
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$2
$3
$4
$5
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$7
2012 2013P 2014P
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Distributed Systems
Range of Analyst
Projections
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
2012 2013P 2014P
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Utility-Scale Systems
Range of Analyst
Projections
Analyst Estimates (2012) and Projections
(20132014) of Global Average System Price
27
Analysts expect the system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems to
continue to fall in the near future
Distributed systems are expected to reach between $2/W - $4.75/W by 2014
Utility-scale systems are expected to reach between $1.50 - $3.15/W by 2014.
Note: P = projection. Data represent the max. and min. figures from: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (05/13/13);
Cowen & Company (05/16/13); Deutsche Bank (03/14/13, 05/07/13, 05/16/13); GTM Research (Feb. 2013); Navigant
Consulting (Q2 2013); Photon Consultings The Wall (06/14/13); Stifel Nicolaus (05/07/13). Inflation adjusted 2013-14:
EIA, AEO, Table 20, Gross Domestic Product, August 2012.

Historic Projection Historic Projection
Contents
28
Introduction and Summary
Historical and Recent Reported Prices
Recent Prices from Bottom-Up Cost Analysis
Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-Up Price Estimates
Near Future Price Trends
Conclusion

Continued system price reductions in 2012; more expected in the near-term, despite
tensions on trade issues
Reported system pricing fell 6-14% from 2011-2012
Modeled overnight capital costs fell 13-23% from Q4 2011 to Q4 2012.
Despite general downward trend, large variation in reported pricing within market
segment in 2012
A difference of roughly $2/W in median installed price between the lowest- and
highest-priced states for residential & commercial systems 10 kW, but similar
variability also exists within individual states
Ground-mounted systems 2 MW ranged in price from $2/W to above $6/W.
Difference between reported price and bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost for
similarly segmented systems in 2012
Residential ($5.30/W reported price, $4.22/W bottom-up benchmark overnight
capital cost); commercial ($4.62/W reported price, $3.22/W bottom-up benchmark
overnight capital cost); utility-scale ($3.35/W reported price, $2.50/W bottom-up
benchmark overnight capital cost)
Delta between reported pricing and modeled cost is due to various factors, such as
inefficient pricing, timing, geographic location, and project specifics.


Conclusion
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