22-Apr-13

1
Transition of Component
States
N
F
Component fails
Component is repaired
Failed
state
continues
Normal
state continues
The Repair-to-Failure Process
Definition of Reliability
The reliability of an item is the probability
that it will adequately perform its specified
purpose for a specified period of time under
specified environmental conditions.
REPAIR -TO-FAILURE PROCESS
MORTALITY DATA
t=age in years ; L(t) =number of living at age t
t L(t) t L(t) t L(t) t L(t)
0 1,023,102 15 962,270 50 810,900 85 78,221
1 1,000,000 20 951,483 55 754,191 90 21,577
2 994,230 25 939,197 60 677,771 95 3,011
3 990,114 30 924,609 65 577,822 95 125
4 986,767 35 906,554 70 454,548
5 983,817 40 883,342 75 315,982
10 971,804 45 852,554 80 181,765
After Bompas-Smith. J.H. Mechanical Survival : The Use of Reliability
Data, McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York , 1971.
22-Apr-13
2
HUMAN RELIABILITY
t L(t), Number Living at
Age in Years Age t R(t)=L(t)/N F(t)=1-R(t)
0 1,023,102 1. 0.
1 1,000,000 0.9774 0.0226
2 994,230 0.9718 0.0282
3 986,767 0.9645 0.0322
4 983,817 0.9616 0.0355
5 983,817 0.9616 0.0384
10 971,804 0.9499 0.0501
15 962,270 0.9405 0.0595
20 951,483 0.9300 0.0700
25 939,197 0.9180 0.0820
30 924,609 0.9037 0.0963
40 883,342 0.8634 0.1139
45 852,554 0.8333 0.1667
50 810,900 0.7926 0.2074
55 754,191 0.7372 0.2628
60 677,771 0.6625 0.3375
65 577,882 0.5648 0.4352
70 454,548 0.4443 0.5557
75 315,982 0.3088 0.6912
80 181,765 0.1777 0.8223
85 78,221 0.0765 0.9235
90 21,577 0.0211 0.9789
95 3,011 0.0029 0.9971
99 125 0.0001 0.9999
100 0 0. 1.

repair= birth
failure = death
Meaning of R(t):
(1) Prob. Of Survival (0.87)
of an individual of an
individual to age t (40)
(2) Proportion of a
population that is
expected to Survive to a
given age t.
Reliability, R(t)
= probability of survival
to (inclusive) age t
= the number of surviving
at t divided by the total
sample
Unreliability, F(t)
= probability of death to
age t (t is not included)
=the total number of
death before age t
divided by the total
population
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f


S
u
r
v
i
v
a
l


R
(
t
)

a
n
d

D
e
a
t
h

F
(
t
)

1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Figure 4.3 Survival and failure distributions.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
P
FALURE DENSITY FUNCTION f(t)
Age in Years

+
=
N
) ( ) (
) (
t n t n
t f
dt
t dF
t f
) (
) ( =
0
1
2
3
4
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
99
100



23,102
5,770
4,116
3,347
2,950
12,013
9,543
10,787
12,286
14,588
18,055
23,212
30,788
41,654
56,709
99,889
123,334
138,566
134,217
103,554
56,634
18,566
2,886
125
0


0.02260
0.00564
0.00402
0.00327
0.00288
0.00235
0.00186
0.00211
0.00240
0.00285
0.00353
0.00454
0.00602
0.00814
0.01110
0.01500
0.01950
0.02410
0.02710
0.02620
0.02020
0.01110
0.00363
0.00071
000012

0.00540
0.00454
0.00284
0.00330
0.00287
0.00192
0.00198
0.00224
0.00259
0.00364
0.00393
0.00436
0.00637
0.00962
0.01367
0.01800
0.02200
0.02490
0.02610
0.02460
0.01950
0.00970
0.00210
-
-
-


) ( ) ( t n t n +
22-Apr-13
3
Age in Years (t)
Figure 4.4 Histogram and smooth curve
N
u
m
b
r
e

o
f

D
e
a
t
h
s

(
t
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

D
e
n
s
i
t
y

f
(
t
)

20 40 60
20
40
60
80
80
100
120
140
100
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

D
e
a
t
h
s

(
t
h
o
u
s
a
n
d
s
)

Age in Years (t)
20 40 60
0.2
0.4
0.6
80
0.8
0.10
0.12
0.14
100
Age in Years (t)
F
a
i
l
u
r
e

D
e
n
s
i
t
y

f

(
t
)

CALCULATION OF FAILURE RATE r(t)
Age in Years No. of Failures
(death)
r(t)=
) ( 1
) (
t F
t f

Age in Years No. of Failures

(death)
r(t)=
) ( 1
) (
t F
t f

0
1
2
3
4
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
23,102
5,770
4,116
3,347
2,950
12,013
9,534
10,787
12,286
14,588
18,055
23,212
0.02260
0.00570
0.00414
0.00338
0.00299
0.00244
0.00196
0.00224
0.00258
0.00311
0.00391
0.0512
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
99
30,788
41,654
56,709
76,420
99,889
123,334
138,566
134,217
103,554
56,634
18,566
2,886
125
0.00697
0.00977
0.01400
0.02030
0.02950
0.04270
0.06100
0.08500
0.11400
0.14480
0.17200
0.24000
1.20000
) (
) (
age at survivals of number
) , [ during deaths of number
) (
t R
t f
t
t t
t r

=
+
=
22-Apr-13
4
Random failures
0 20 40 60 80 100
Bathtub Curve
t,years
Figure 4.6 Failure rate r (t) versus t.
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05

F
a
i
l
u
r
e

r
a
t
e

f

(
t
)

Wearout failures
20 40 60 80 100
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
Early failures
Random failures
Wearout failures
Failure rate r(t) versus t.
Reliability - R(t)
The probability that the component
experiences no failure during the the time
interval (0,t).


Example: exponential distribution

t
e t R

= ) (
0 ) ( lim
1 ) ( lim
0
=
=

t R
t R
t
t
Unreliability - F(t)
The probability that the component
experiences the first failure during (0,t).



Example: exponential distribution
1 ) ( ) ( = + t F t R
1 ) ( lim
0 ) ( lim
0
=
=

t F
t F
t
t
t
e t F

=1 ) (
22-Apr-13
5
Failure Density - f(t)

=
=
= =
t
t
t
du u f t R
du u f t F
e
dt
t dF
t f
) ( ) (
) ( ) (
) (
) (
0

(exponential
distribution)
Failure Rate - r(t)
The probability that the component fails per
unit time at time t, given that the component
has survived to time t.


Example:
) ( 1
) (
) (
) (
) (
t F
t f
t R
t f
t r

= =
= ) (t r
The component with a constant failure rate is considered
as good as new, if it is functioning.
Mean Time to Failure - MTTF

1
) (
0
= =

dt t tf MTTF
Failure Rate Failure Density Unreliability Reliability
t
(a)
t
(b)
t
(c)
t
(d)
f (t) F (t) R (t)
1 1
0
0
Area = 1
( )

t
0
dt t f
1 - F (t)
Figure 11-1 Typical plots of (a) the failure rate (b) the failure density
f (t), (c) the unreliability F(t), and (d) the reliability R (t).

22-Apr-13
6
Period of Approximately Constant
failure rate
Infant Mortality Old Age
Time
Failure Rate,
(faults/time)
Figure 11-2 A typical bathtub failure rate curve for process hardware. The
failure rate is approximately constant over the mid-life of the component.

TABLE 11-1: FAILURE RATE DATA FOR

VARIOUS SELECTED PROCESS COMPONENTS
1

Instrument Fault/year
Controller 0.29
Control valve 0.60
Flow measurement (fluids) 1.14
Flow measurement (solids) 3.75
Flow switch 1.12
Gas - liquid chromatograph 30.6
Hand valve 0.13
Indicator lamp 0.044
Level measurement (liquids) 1.70
Level measurement (solids) 6.86
Oxygen analyzer 5.65
pH meter 5.88
Pressure measurement 1.41
Pressure relief valve 0.022
Pressure switch 0.14
Solenoid valve 0.42
Stepper motor 0.044
Strip chart recorder 0.22
Thermocouple temperature measurement 0.52
Thermometer temperature measurement 0.027
Valve positioner 0.44
1
Selected from Frank P. Lees, Loss Prevention in the Process Industries
(London: Butterworths, 1986), p. 343.
A System with n Components
in Parallel
Unreliability

Reliability

=
=
n
i
i
F F
1

=
= =
n
i
i
R F R
1
) 1 ( 1 1
A System with n Components
in Series
Reliability

Unreliability

=
=
n
i
i
R R
1

=
= =
n
i
i
F R F
1
) 1 ( 1 1
22-Apr-13
7
Upper Bound of Unreliability
for Systems with n Components
in Series


=

= =
+ + =
n
l
l
n
j
n
i
i
j
i
n
i
i
F F F F F
1
1
2
1
1 1
) 1 ( L

n
i
i
F
1
Reactor
PIA
PIC
Alarm
at
P > P
A

Pressure
Switch
Pressure
Feed
Solenoid
Valve
Figure 11-5 Achemical reactor with an alarm and inlet feed solenoid. The alarm and feed shutdown systems
are linked in parallel.
Component
Failure Rate
(Faults/yr)

Reliability
t
e t R

= ) (
Unreliability
F=1-R
Pressure Switch #1 0.14 0.87 0.13
AlarmIndicator 0.044 0.96 0.04
Pressure Switch #2 0.14 0.87 0.13
Solenoid Valve 0.42 0.66 0.34
Alarm System
The components are in series
56 . 5
1
180 . 0 ln
165 . 0 835 . 0 1 1
835 . 0 ) 96 . 0 )( 87 . 0 (
2
1
= =
= =
= = =
= = =

MTTF
R
R F
R R
i
i
Faults/year
years
22-Apr-13
8
Shutdown System
The components are also in series:

80 . 1
1
555 . 0 ln
426 . 0 574 . 0 1 1
574 . 0 ) 66 . 0 )( 87 . 0 (
2
1
= =
= =
= = =
= = =

MTTF
R
R F
R R
i
i
The Overall Reactor System
The alarm and shutdown systems are in
parallel:
7 . 13
1
073 . 0 ln
930 . 0 070 . 0 1 1
070 . 0 ) 426 . 0 )( 165 . 0 (
2
1
= =
= =
= = =
= = =

MTTF
R
F R
F F
j
j
The Failure-to-Repair Process
Repair Probability - G(t)
The probability that repair is completed
before time t, given that the component
failed at time zero.
If the component is non-repairable

0 ) ( = t G
22-Apr-13
9
Repair Density - g(t)

=
=
t
du u g t G
dt
t dG
t g
0
) ( ) (
) (
) (
Repair Rate - m(t)
The probability that the component is
repaired per unit time at time t, given that
the component failed at time zero and has
been failed to time t.


If the component is non-repairable
) ( 1
) (
) (
t G
t g
t m

=
0 ) ( = t m
Mean Time to Repair - MTTR

=
0
) ( dt t tg MTTR
The Whole Process
22-Apr-13
10
Availability - A(t)
The probability that the component is
normal at time t.
For non-repairable components


For repairable components
0 ) (
) ( ) (
=
=
A
t R t A
0 ) (
) ( ) (

A
t R t A
Unavailability - Q(t)
The probability that the component fails at
time t.
For non-repairable components


For repairable components
1 ) ( ) ( = + t Q t A
1 ) (
) ( ) (
=
=
Q
t F t Q
1 ) (
) ( ) (

Q
t F t Q
Unconditional Repair Density,
w(t)
The probability that a component fails per unit
time at time t, given that it jumped into the
normal state at time zero. Note,
for non-repairable components.
) ( ) ( t f t w =
Unconditional Repair Density,
v(t)
The probability that the component is
repaired per unit time at time t, give
that it jumped into the normal state at
time zero.

22-Apr-13
11
Conditional Failure Intensity, (t)
The probability that the component fails per unit
time, given that it is in the normal state at time
zero and normal at time t. In general , (t)r(t).
For non-repairable components, (t) = r(t).
However, if the failure rate is constant () ,
then (t) = r(t) = for both repairable and non-
repairable components.

) ( 1
) (
) (
t Q
t w
t

=
Conditional Repair Intensity, (t)
The probability that a component is
repaired per unit time at time t, given
that it is jumped into the normal state
at time zero and is failed at time t, For
non-repairable component,
(t)=m(t)=0. For constant repair rate
m, (t)=m.
ENF over an interval, W(t
1
,t
2
)

Expected number of failures during (t1,t2) given
that the component jumped into the normal state
at time zero.


For non-repairable components
) ( ) , 0 ( t F t W =

=
2
1
) ( ) , (
2 1
t
t
dt t w t t W


SHORT-CUT CALCULATION METHODS
Information Required
j
j
(1) f a i l u r e r a t e c o n s t a n t
( 2 ) r e p a i r r a t e c o n s t a n t
( 3 ) m i n i m u m c u t s e t s
= =
= =



Approximation of Event Unavailability
When time is long compared with MTTR and , the following approximation
can be made,
Where, is the MTTR of component j.
[ ]
t
j j
j
j
j j
e Q
) (
1

+
=
1 . 0 <<
j
j

j j
j
j
j
j
j
j
j j
j
j
t
Q

=
+
=
+
=

1 ) (
) (
lim
j

22-Apr-13
12

Z
AND
X Y
IF X and Y are Independent
Y X
Y X
Z
Y X Y X Z

+
=
+ = ) (
Z
OR
X Y
( )
( )
z x y
x x y y
z
x y

= +
+
=
+
COMPUTATION OF ACROSS LOGIC
GATES
, , , ,
2 INPUTS
3 INPUTS n INPUTS

1 2 1 2
( ) +
1 2
1 2

+
1 2
+
1 1 2 2
1 2


+
+
1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2
( ) + +
1 2 3
2 3 1 3 1 2

+ +
1 2 3
+ +
1 1 2 2 3 3
1 2 3


+ +
+ +
1 2 2 3 1 3
1 2 1
(
)
n n
n



+
+ +
L L L
L L
1 2
1
1 1 1
n

+ + + L
1 2 n
+ + + L
1 1 2 2
1 2 3
n n
n


+ + +
+ + +
L
L
AND
GATES
OR
GATES
CUT SET IMPORTANCE
The importance of a cut set K is defined as
k
k
s
Q
I
Q
=
Where, is the probability of the top event. may be interpreted
as the conditional probability that the cut set occurs given that the
top event has occurred.
S
Q
K
I
K
PRIMAL EVENT IMPORTANCE
The importance of a primal event is defined as X
1
1
1
M
X K
K
S
M
X K
K
i Q
Q
i I
=
=
=
=

or
Where, the sum is taken over all cut sets which contain primal
event . X
22-Apr-13
13
[ EXAMPLE ]
As an example , consider the tree used in the section on cut sets.
The cut sets for this tree are (1) , (2) , (6) , (3,4) ,(3,5). The following data
are given from which we compute the unavailabilities for each event.

1
yr

Event
( ) yr hr
1 .16 1.5E-5 (.125) 2.4E-6
2 .2 1.5E-5 (.125) 3.0E-6
3 1.4 7E-4 (6) 9.8E-4
4 30 1.1E-4 (1) 3.3E-3
5 5 1.1E-4 (1) 5.5E-4
6 .5 5.5E-5 (.5) 2.75E-5
Now, compute the probability of occurrence for each cut set and top event
probability.
Cut Set

K
Q
(1) 2.4E-6
(2) 3.0E-6
(6) 2.75E-5
(3,4) 3.23E-6
(3,5) 5.39E-7



S
Q = 3.67E-5
i
q