India Development and Policy - Part-1
India Development and Policy - Part-1
GNP growth rate at constant fc 4.3 6.0 4.2 8.5 6.8 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5
GDP growth rate at constant mp 3.9 5.1 4.1 8.6 6.9 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7
GDP growth rate at constant fc 4.4 5.8 4.0 8.5 6.9 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.7
GR agriculture -0.1 6.3 -7.0 9.6 1.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0
GR industry 6.5 3.6 6.6 6.6 7.7 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.0
GR manufacturing 7.4 3.6 6.5 6.9 9.2 9.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
GR non-manufacturing 5.1 3.6 6.6 6.1 5.1 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
GR services 5.5 6.8 7.9 9.1 8.9 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0
GDP at current mp (Rupees Bn;fy) 20895 22720 24633 27600 31337 35411 39764 44500 49822
Net factor income from abroad -181 -156 -132 -141 -160 -181 -203 -227 -254
GNP at current mp (Rupees) 20714 22564 24502 27459 31177 35231 39561 44273 49568
NNP at current mp 18735 20387 22172 24923 28297 31977 35907 40184 44990
GDP at current mp (mn US$) 457377 476388 509001 600639 697464 795761 883639 988887 ###
GNP at current mp (mn US$) 453413 473124 506280 597575 693907 791702 879132 983843 ###
NNP at current mp (mn US$) 410095 427481 458145 542378 629812 718575 797928 892968 999774
Average Exchange Rate (Rupees/US 45.68 47.69 48.40 45.95 44.93 44.50 45.00 45.00 45.00
REER (1993-94=100, 5 country) 100.76 102.09 97.88 99.60 101.91 105.00 100.00 ### ###
NEER (1993-94=100, 5 country) 73.77 73.18 68.78 67.36 66.09 65.43 64.77 64.13 63.49
Implicit GDP deflator (1993/94=100 159 164 171 176 187 197 206 214 222
GR GDP deflator 3.8 3.4 4.1 3.2 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0
Implicit GNP deflator (1993/94=100 159 164 171 176 187 197 206 214 223
GR GNP deflator 3.8 3.4 4.1 3.2 6.3 5.0 4.5 4.1 4.1
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
CPI :Ind.Workers 1982=100 (Avera 444 463 482 500 520 543 565 587 611
GR : Consumer Price Index 3.8 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.0
WPI :1993/94=100 (52-week averag 155.7 161.3 166.8 175.9 187.3 196.7 205.5 213.7 222.3
GR : Wholesale Price Index 7.2 3.6 3.4 5.5 6.2 5.0 4.5 4.0 4.0
Expend. on GDP;Current mp;Rs. 20895 22720 24633 27600 31337 35411 39764 44500 49822
total consumption 16179 17690 18754 20739 23189 25319 28113 31372 34876
private consumption 13537 14857 15839 17618 19742 21424 23739 26477 29644
government consumption 2642 2834 2915 3121 3447 3895 4374 4895 5231
total investment 4982 5135 6109 7269 9063 10798 12852 14528 16392
gross fixed cap. formation 4592 5014 5480 6273 8973 10698 12742 14408 16267
increase in stocks 135 26 100 84 90 100 110 120 125
exports of goods and services 2781 2908 3800 4434 6404 7520 8950 10560 12493
less: imports of goods and services 2975 3111 3800 4434 6693 8226 10151 11961 13937
statistical discrepancy -72 97 -230 -407 -627 0 0 0 0
Investment: curr.mp;Rs.Bn
gross domestic capital formation 4982 5135 6109 7269 9063 10798 12852 14528 16392
-- Private sector 3667 3734 4789 5728 6797 8099 9639 10896 12294
-- Public sector 1315 1401 1320 1541 2266 2700 3213 3632 4098
gross domestic saving 4900 5323 6423 7764 8774 10092 11651 13127 14947
-- Household sector 4523 5131 5747 6717 7678 8853 9941 11125 12456
-- Private corporate sector 861 811 943 1142 1316 1594 1988 2225 2491
-- Public sector -484 -619 -267 -94 -219 -354 -278 -222 0
GR GDS 4.6 8.6 20.7 20.9 13.0 15.0 15.4 30.1 28.3
GR GDI 1.5 3.1 19.0 19.0 24.7 19.1 19.0 34.5 27.5
GR Total Consumption 6.9 9.3 6.0 10.6 11.8 9.2 11.0 23.9 24.1
GDI as % of GDP 23.8 22.6 24.8 26.3 28.9 30.5 32.3 32.6 32.9
-- Private sector 17.5 16.4 19.4 20.8 21.7 22.9 24.2 24.5 24.7
-- Public sector 6.3 6.2 5.4 5.6 7.2 7.6 8.1 8.2 8.2
GDS as % of GDP 23.5 23.4 26.1 28.1 28.0 28.5 29.3 29.5 30.0
-- Household sector 21.6 22.6 23.3 24.3 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
-- Private corporate sector 4.1 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
-- Public sector -2.3 -2.7 -1.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 0.0
Resource gap (GDS-GDI) -0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 -0.9 -2.0 -3.0 -3.1 -2.9
GDI as % of GNP 24.1 22.8 24.9 26.5 29.1 30.7 32.5 32.8 33.1
GDS as % of GNP 23.7 23.6 26.2 28.3 28.1 28.6 29.5 29.7 30.2
Resource gap (GDS-GDI) -0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 -0.9 -2.0 -3.0 -3.2 -2.9
Per Capita GDP ( Rupees ):
Current market prices 20505 21909 23349 25723 28723 31930 35286 38875 42861
constant 1993/94 factor cost 11762 12227 12496 13332 14018 14841 15695 16626 17626
GR per capita GDP at constant f 2.3 3.9 2.2 6.7 5.1 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.0
Per Capita NNP at constant 1993/9 10308 10754 11013 11799 12389 13119 13880 14693 15558
GR per capita NNP at constant fc 2.3 4.3 2.4 7.1 5.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9
Per Capita GNP ( Rupees ):
Current market prices 20328 21759 23224 25591 28576 31767 35106 38677 42642
constant 1993/94 market prices 12797 13244 13580 14507 15245 16142 17077 18080 19149
GR per capita constant GNP 2.1 3.5 2.5 6.8 5.1 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.9
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Balance of Payments (US$ Mn; fy)
Merchandise exports, fob 45452 44703 53774 64723 80831 96997 116397 139676 167611
Merchandise imports, cif 57912 56277 64464 80177 118961 152865 191081 229297 271717
Trade balance -12460 -11574 -10690 -15454 -38130 -55868 -74684 -89621 -104106
Gross invisible receipts 32267 36737 41925 52982 61699 72000 82500 95000 110000
Gross invisible payments 22473 21763 24890 26967 30000 32000 34500 36500 38000
Net invisibles 9794 14974 17035 26015 31699 40000 48000 58500 72000
Current account balance & off. trans -2666 3400 6345 10561 -6431 -15868 -26684 -31121 -32106
growth rates : Fiscal Year
merchandise exports 21.1 -1.6 20.3 20.4 24.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
merchandise imports 4.6 -2.8 14.5 24.4 48.4 28.5 25.0 20.0 18.5
invisibles receipts 6.4 13.9 14.1 26.4 16.5 16.7 14.6 15.2 15.8
invisibles payments 30.9 -3.2 14.4 8.3 11.2 6.7 7.8 5.8 4.1
net invisibles -25.5 52.9 13.8 52.7 21.8 26.2 20.0 21.9 23.1
capital inflows (US$ million; fy) 9420 10975 12843 20860 32590 29700 35500 35000 34000
External assistance,net 410 1117 -2460 -2742 1922 1500 1000 1000 1000
External commercial borrowings, 3737 -1576 -2344 -1526 5947 6000 5000 2500 -1000
Direct foreign investment 3272 4741 3611 3420 3037 4200 5000 5500 6000
Portfolio investment 2590 1951 944 11356 8907 12500 10000 11000 12500
Other capital inflows, of which -589 4742 13092 10352 12777 5500 14500 15000 15500
IMF, net -26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NRI deposits,net 2317 2754 2976 3642 -1067 -3500 2000 2500 3000
Other capital,net -2880 1988 10116 6710 13844 9000 12500 12500 12500
Change of reserves [increase (-) ] -6754 -14375 -19188 -31421 -26159 -13832 -8816 -3879 -1894
Foreign exchange reserves ($mn, end 42281 54106 73294 104715 130874 144706 153522 157400 159294
Foreign Reserves (in months of impo 8.8 11.5 13.6 15.7 13.2 11.4 9.6 8.2 7.0
Foreign investment (US$ milion) 5862 6692 4555 14776 11944 16700 15000 16500 18500
Money Supply (Rs.Bn; end fy)
Narrow money supply (M1) 3795 4228 4736 5787 6463 7529 8783 10254 11973
Currency with the public 2096 2408 2716 3150 3558 4056 4624 5271 6009
Demand deposits 1663 1792 1988 2586 2840 3408 4090 4908 5889
Other deposits with RBI 36 29 32 51 65 65 70 75 75
Time deposits with banks 9338 10755 12444 14270 16077 18151 20492 23136 26120
Broad money supply (M3) 13132 14984 17180 20057 22539 25680 29275 33389 38093
Foreign assets (net) 2498 3110 3937 5266 6493 8440 10972 14264 18543
Domestic credit 11912 13492 15755 17591 20384 23703 27610 32215 37650
Claims on govt. sector 5120 5896 6765 7429 7579 8337 9171 10088 11097
Claims on private sector 6792 7596 8990 10162 12805 15366 18440 22128 26553
Govt's currency liabilities to the pu 54 64 71 73 74 76 77 77 78
less, banking sector's non-monetary 1331 1683 2583 2873 4412 6540 9384 13167 18178
Broad money supply (M3) 13132 14984 17180 20057 22539 25680 29275 33389 38093
GR M1 11.0 11.4 12.0 22.2 11.7 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.8
GR M3 16.8 14.1 14.7 16.7 12.4 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Central govt.finance(Rs.Bln.fy)
Current revenue 1926 2013 2308 2639 3009 3512 4132 4838 5625
Taxes 1367 1335 1585 1870 2258 2735 3282 3938 4725
Non-taxes including external grant 559 678 723 769 751 777 850 900 900
Current expenditure, of which 2778 3015 3387 3621 3861 4465 4905 5442 6100
Interest payments 993 1075 1178 1241 1259 1339 1400 1460 1460
Current surplus(+)/deficit(-) -852 -1002 -1079 -983 -852 -953 -773 -604 -475
Capital receipts, of which 1330 1610 1824 2075 2049 1631 1610 1600 1600
Recovery of loans 120 164 342 673 616 120 110 100 100
Disinvestment of govt.equity in P 21 36 32 170 41 0 0 0 0
Govt. borrowings & other liabilitie 1188 1410 1451 1233 1392 1511 1500 1500 1500
Capital expenditure 478 608 745 1092 1197 678 837 996 1125
Capital a/c surplus(+)/deficit(-) 852 1002 1079 983 852 953 773 604 475
Budget deficit (-)/ Surplus (+) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Fiscal Deficit(-)/Surplus(+) -1188 -1410 -1451 -1233 -1392 -1511 -1500 -1500 -1500
Primary deficit (-) -195 -335 -273 8 -133 -172 -100 -40 -40
Financing fiscal deficit (Rs.Bln):
Domestic borrowing 1125 1369 1567 1182 1275 1380 1375 1375 1375
Foreign borrowing and grants 75 56 -135 90 97 100 100 100 100
Others (use of cash balances) -12 -15 19 -39 21 31 25 25 25
Note:Borrowing & other liabilities 1188 1410 1451 1233 1392 1511 1500 1500 1500
As % of GDP at current mp
Tax revenue 6.5 5.9 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.8 9.5
Total non-debt revenue 9.9 9.7 10.9 12.6 11.7 10.3 10.7 11.1 11.5
Current expenditure 13.3 13.3 13.8 13.1 12.3 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.2
Total expenditure & net lending 15.6 15.9 16.8 17.1 16.1 14.5 14.4 14.5 14.5
Gross fiscal balance -5.7 -6.2 -5.9 -4.5 -4.4 -4.3 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0
Revenue balance -4.1 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.7 -2.7 -1.9 -1.4 -1.0
Primary balance -0.9 -1.5 -1.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
States finance combined (Rs.Bln)
Fiscal deficit (-) -895 -960 -1021 -1214 -1193 -1070
Primary deficit (-) -378 -335 -320 -407 -321 -147
Budget deficit (-) 23 26 46 12 -60 26
Revenue deficit (-) -536 -592 -551 -612 -432 -245
States finance comb. (% of GDP)
Fiscal deficit (-) -4.3 -4.2 -4.1 -4.4 -3.8 -3.0
Primary deficit (-) -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4
Budget deficit (-) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Revenue deficit (-) -2.6 -2.6 -2.2 -2.2 -1.4 -0.7
Centre & States comb. (% of GDP
Fiscal deficit (-) -9.5 -9.9 -9.5 -8.4 -8.3 -7.3
Primary deficit (-) -3.6 -3.7 -3.1 -2.0 -2.2 -0.9
Budget deficit (-) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1
Revenue deficit (-) -6.6 -7.0 -6.6 -5.8 -4.1 -3.4
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Ext.Debt (US$ Mn. End of fin. yeaMar-2001Mar-2002Mar-2003Mar-2004Mar-2005Mar-2006Mar-2007Mar-2008Mar-2009
Total outstanding and disbursed 101326 98843 104958 111715 123310 125036 133286 131536 136536
Long-term, of which 97698 96098 100289 107284 115786 119786 127786 125786 130786
Government debt 42499 42707 41543 42717 44510 46010 47010 47010 48010
non-government debt 55199 53391 58746 64567 71276 73776 80776 78776 82776
Short-term (all on non-govt accoun 3628 2745 4669 4431 7524 5250 5500 5750 5750
Total debt servicing 12821 10863 14407 20949 17000 14000 14000 15500 15500
principal repayments 8359 6776 10843 16949 12500 9500 9000 9500 9500
interest payments (LT, ST) 4462 4087 3564 4000 4500 4500 5000 6000 6000
Exports & gross invisibles (XGS) 77719 81440 95699 117705 142530 168997 198897 234676 277611
ExtDebt/ current receipt ratio (%) 130 121 110 95 87 74 67 56 49
Debt-service ratio (to XGS in per ce 16.5 13.3 15.1 17.8 11.9 8.3 7.0 6.6 5.6
Debt-service to GDP ratio (per cent) 2.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4
Debt/GDP ratio (in per cent) 22.2 20.7 20.6 18.6 17.7 15.7 15.1 13.3 12.3
Debt/exports ratio (in per cent) 223 221 195 173 153 129 115 94 81
Short term debt/ Total Debt ratio (% 3.6 2.8 4.4 4.0 6.1 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.2
Govt external debt/ Total Debt ratio 41.9 43.2 39.6 38.2 36.1 36.8 35.3 35.7 35.2
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Memo Items:
As per cent of GDP at current mp:
Merchandise exports, fob 9.9 9.4 10.6 10.8 11.6 12.2 13.2 14.1 15.1
Merchandise imports, cif 12.7 11.8 12.7 13.3 17.1 19.2 21.6 23.2 24.5
Trade balance -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -2.6 -5.5 -7.0 -8.5 -9.1 -9.4
Gross invisible receipts 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.8 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.9
Gross invisible payments 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.4
Net invisibles 2.1 3.1 3.3 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.5
Current account balance & official t -0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 -0.9 -2.0 -3.0 -3.1 -2.9
Total capital inflows, net 1.9 3.3 5.1 5.2 6.5 4.4 5.7 5.1 4.5
External assistance,net 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
External commercial borrowings, 0.8 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1
Direct foreign investment 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Portfolio investment 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.1
Other capital inflows, of which -0.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
IMF, net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NRI deposits,net 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3
Other capital,net -0.6 0.4 2.0 1.1 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1
Change in reserves [increase (-)] -1.5 -3.0 -3.8 -5.2 -3.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.4 -0.2
Foreign exchange reserves at end ye 9.2 11.4 14.4 17.4 18.8 18.2 17.4 15.9 14.4
Total foreign investment 1.3 1.4 0.9 2.5 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.7
INDIA- Macro-economic Trends: 2000-2008 [Update:30 December 2005]
I T E MS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Est. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Memo Items:
As per cent of GDP at current mp:
Expenditure on GDP;Current mp;Rs 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
total consumption 77.4 77.9 76.1 75.1 74.0 71.5 70.7 70.5 70.0
private consumption 64.8 65.4 64.3 63.8 63.0 60.5 59.7 59.5 59.5
government consumption 12.6 12.5 11.8 11.3 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.5
total investment 23.8 22.6 24.8 24.8 26.3 28.9 30.5 30.5 32.3
gross fixed cap. formation 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.7 28.6 30.2 32.0 32.4 32.6
increase in stocks 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
exports of goods and services 13.3 12.8 15.4 16.1 20.4 21.2 22.5 23.7 25.1
less: imports of goods and services 14.2 13.7 15.4 16.1 21.4 23.2 25.5 26.9 28.0
statistical discrepancy -0.3 0.4 -0.9 -1.5 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0