8 Chapter 2: Probability

Instructors Solutions Manual

Chapter 2: Probability
2.1 A = {FF}, B = {MM}, C = {MF, FM, MM}. Then, AB = 0/ , BC = {MM}, B C =
{MF, FM}, B A ={FF,MM}, C A = S, C B = C.
2.2 a. AB b. B A c. B A d.
! ! B A B A
2.3

2.4 a.


b.
2.5 a.
A S A B B A B A B A = = = ! ! !
.
" Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
b.
A A B B B A B B A B = = = ! ! ! !
.
c.
= = ! ! ! B B A B A B A 0/ . The result #ollo$s #ro% part a.
d.
! ! B B A B A B =
= 0/ . The result #ollo$s #ro% part &.
2.6 A = {!',2, !2,2, !(,2, !),2, !*,2, !+,2, !',), !2,), !(,), !),), !*,), !+,), !',+, !2,+,
!(,+, !),+, !*,+, !+,+}
C = {!2,2, !2,), !2,+, !),2, !),), !),+, !+,2, !+,), !+,+}
AB = {!2,2, !),2, !+,2, !2,), !),), !+,), !2,+, !),+, !+,+}
B A = {!',2, !(,2, !*,2, !',), !(,), !*,), !',+, !(,+, !*,+}
B A = e,er-thin. &ut {!',2, !',), !',+, !(,2, !(,), !(,+, !*,2, !*,), !*,+}
A C A =
2.7 A = {t$o %ales} = {M', M2, !M',M(, !M2,M(}
B = {at least one #e%ale} = {!M',/', !M2,/', !M(,/', !M',/2, !M2,/2, !M(,/2,
{/',/2}
B = {no #e%ales} = 0 S B A = = B A 0/ A B A =
2.8 a. (+ 1 + = )2 b. (( c. '8

2.9 S = {01, 21, 021, 31, 04, 24, 024, 34}
2.10 a. S = {0, 2, 02, 3}
b. P!{0} = 0.)', P!{2} = 0.'0, P!{02} = 0.0), P!{3} = 0.)*.
c. P!{0} or {2} = P!{0} 1 P!{2} = 0.*', since the e,ents are %utuall- e5clusi,e.
2.11 a. Since P!S = P!6' 1 7 1 P!6* = ', ' = .'* 1 .'* 1 .)0 1 (P!6*. So, P!6* = .'0 an8
P!6) = .20.
b. 3&,iousl-, P!6( 1 P!6) 1 P!6* = .+. Thus, the- are all e9ual to .2
2.12 a. :et : = {le#t tern}, ; = {ri.ht turn}, C = {continues strai.ht}.
b. P!,ehicle turns = P!: 1 P!; = '<( 1 '<( = 2<(.

2.13 a. =enote the e,ents as ,er- li>el- !?:, so%e$hat li>el- !S:, unli>el- !@, other !3.
b. Aot e9uall- li>el-: P!?: = .2), P!S: = .2), P!@ = .)0, P!3 = .'2.
c. P!at least S: = P!S: 1 P!?: = .)8.

2.14 a. P!nee8s .lasses = .)) 1 .') = .)8
b. P!nee8s .lasses &ut 8oesnt use the% = .')
c. P!uses .lasses = .)) 1 .02 = .)+

2.15 a. Since the e,ents are M.6., P!S = P!6' 1 7 1 P!6) = '. So, P!62 = ' B .0' B .0"
B.8' = .0".
b. P!at least one hit = P!6' 1 P!62 1 P!6( = .'".
2.16 a. '<( b. '<( 1 '<'* = +<'* c. '<( 1 '<'+ = '"<)8 d. )"<2)0

2.17 :et 2 = &ushin. 8e#ect, SC = sha#t 8e#ect.
Chapter 2: Probability '0
Instructors Solutions Manual
a. P!2 = .0+ 1 .02 = .08
b. P!2 or SC = .0+ 1 .08 1 .02 = .'+
c. P!e5actl- one 8e#ect = .0+ 1 .08 = .')
d. P!neither 8e#ect = ' B D!2 or SC = ' B .'+ = .8)
2.18 a. S = {CC, TC, CT, TT}
b. i# the coin is #air, all e,ents ha,e pro&a&ilit- .2*.
c. A = {CT, TC}, B = {CT, TC, CC}
d. P!A = .*, P!B = .E*, P! B A = P!A = .*, P! B A = P!B = .E*, P! B A = '.
2.19 a. !?', ?', !?', ?2, !?', ?(, !?2, ?', !?2, ?2, !?2, ?(, !?(, ?', !?(, ?2, !?(, ?(
b. i# e9uall- li>el-, all ha,e pro&a&ilit- o# '<".
c. A = {sa%e ,en8or .ets &oth} = {!?', ?', !?2, ?2, !?(, ?(}
B = {at least one ?2} = {!?', ?2, !?2, ?', !?2, ?2, !?2, ?(, !?(, ?2}
So, P!A = '<(, P!B = *<", P! B A = E<", P! B A = '<".
2.20 a. P!G = P!D' = P!D2 = '<(.
b. i. The pro&a&ilit- o# selectin. the .oo8 priFe is '<(.
ii. She $ill .et the other 8u8.
iii. She $ill .et the .oo8 priFe.
i,. Cer pro&a&ilit- o# $innin. is no$ 2<(.
,. The &est strate.- is to s$itch.
2.21 P!A = P!
! ! B A B A
= P
! B A
1 P
! B A
since these are M.6. &- 65. 2.*.

2.22 P!A = P!
! B A B
= P!2 1 P
! B A
since these are M.6. &- 65. 2.*.
2.23 0ll ele%ents in B are in A, so that $hen B occurs, A %ust also occur. Co$e,er, it is
possi&le #or A to occur an8 B not to occur.
2.24 Fro% the relation in 65. 2.22, P
! B A
G 0, so P!B H P!A.
2.25 @nless e5actl- '<2 o# all cars in the lot are ?ol>s$a.ens, the clai% is not true.

2.26 a. :et A', A2 8enote the e%pt- cans an8 /', /2 8enote the cans #ille8 $ith $ater. Thus,
S = {A'A2, A'/2, A2/2, A'/', A2/', /'/2}
b. I# this a %erel- a .uess, the e,ents are e9uall- li>el-. So, P!/'/2 = '<+.
2.27 a. S = {CC, C;, C:, ;C, ;;, ;:, :C, :;, ::}
b. *<"
c. *<"

2.28 a. =enote the #our can8i8ates as 0', 02, 0(, an8 M. Since or8er is not i%portant, the
outco%es are {0'02, 0'0(, 0'M, 020(, 02M, 0(M}.
b. assu%in. e9uall- li>el- outco%es, all ha,e pro&a&ilit- '<+.
c. P!%inorit- hire8 = P!0'M 1 P!02M 1 P!0(M = .*
'' Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual

2.29 a. The e5peri%ent consists o# ran8o%l- selectin. t$o Iurors #ro% a .roup o# t$o $o%en
an8 #our %en.
b. =enotin. the $o%en as $', $2 an8 the %en as %', %2, %(, %), the sa%ple space is
$',%' $2,%' %',%2 %2,%( %(,%)
$',%2 $2,%2 %',%( %2,%)
$',%( $2,%( %',%)
$',%) $2,%) $',$2
c. P!$',$2 = '<'*

2.30 a. :et $' 8enote the #irst $ine, $2 the secon8, an8 $( the thir8. 6ach sa%ple point is an
or8ere8 triple in8icatin. the ran>in..
b. triples: !$',$2,$(, !$',$(,$2, !$2,$',$(, !$2,$(,$', !$(,$',$2, !$(,$2,$'
c. For each $ine, there are ) or8ere8 triples $here it is not last. So, the pro&a&ilit- is 2<(.
2.31 a. There are #our J.oo8K s-ste%s an8 t$o J8e#acti,eK s-ste%s. I# t$o out o# the si5
s-ste%s are chosen ran8o%l-, there are '* possi&le uni9ue pairs. =enotin. the s-ste%s
as .', .2, .(, .), 8', 82, the sa%ple space is .i,en &- S = {.'.2, .'.(, .'.), .'8',
.'82, .2.(, .2.), .28', .282, .(.), .(8', .(82, .).', .)8', 8'82}. Thus:
P!at least one 8e#ecti,e = "<'* P!&oth 8e#ecti,e = P!8'82 = '<'*
b. I# #our are 8e#ecti,e, P!at least one 8e#ecti,e = ')<'*. P!&oth 8e#ecti,e = +<'*.

2.32 a. :et J'K represent a custo%er see>in. st-le ', an8 J2K represent a custo%er see>in.
st-le 2. The sa%ple space consists o# the #ollo$in. '+ #our4tuples:
'''', '''2, ''2', '2'', 2''', ''22, '2'2, 2''2, '22', 2'2',
22'', 222', 22'2, 2'22, '222, 2222
b. I# the st-les are e9uall- in 8e%an8, the or8erin. shoul8 &e e9uall- li>el-. So, the
pro&a&ilit- is '<'+.
c. P!A = P!'''' 1 P!2222 = 2<'+.
2.33 a. =e#ine the e,ents: L = #a%il- inco%e is .reater than M)(,('8, A other$ise. The
points are 6': LLLL 62: LLLA 6(: LLAL 6): LALL
6*: ALLL 6+: LLAA 6E: LALA 68: ALLA
6": LAAL 6'0: ALAL 6'': AALL 6'2: LAAA
6'(: ALAA 6'): AALA 6'*: AAAL 6'+: AAAA
b. A = {6', 62, 7, 6''} B = {6+, 6E, 7, 6''} C = {62, 6(, 6), 6*}
c. I# P!6 = P!A = .*, each ele%ent in the sa%ple space has pro&a&ilit- '<'+. Thus,
P!A = ''<'+, P!B = +<'+, an8 P!C = )<'+.
2.34 a. Three patients enter the hospital an8 ran8o%l- choose stations ', 2, or ( #or ser,ice.
Then, the sa%ple space S contains the #ollo$in. 2E three4tuples:
''', ''2, ''(, '2', '22, '2(, '(', '(2, '((, 2'', 2'2, 2'(, 22', 222, 22(,
2(', 2(2, 2((, ('', ('2, ('(, (2', (22, (2(, ((', ((2, (((
Chapter 2: Probability '2
Instructors Solutions Manual
b. A = {'2(, '(2, 2'(, 2(', ('2, (2'}
c. I# the stations are selecte8 at ran8o%, each sa%ple point is e9uall- li>el-. P!A = +<2E.

2.35 The total nu%&er o# #li.hts is +!E = )2.

2.36 There are (N = + or8erin.s.
2.37 a. There are +N = E20 possi&le itineraries.
b. In the E20 or8erin.s, e5actl- (+0 ha,e =en,er &e#ore San Francisco an8 (+0 ha,e San
Francisco &e#ore =en,er. So, the pro&a&ilit- is .*.
2.38 2- the mn rule, )!(!)!* = 2)0.

2.39 a. 2- the mn rule, there are +!+ = (+ possi&le roles.
b. =e#ine the e,ent A = {!',+, !2,*, !(,), !),(, !*,2, !+,'}. Then, P!A = +<(+.
2.40 a. 2- the mn rule, the 8ealer %ust stoc> *!)!2 = )0 autos.
b. To ha,e each o# these in e,er- one o# the ei.ht colors, he %ust stoc> 8O)0 = (20
autos.
2.41 I# the #irst 8i.it cannot &e Fero, there are " possi&le ,alues. For the re%ainin. si5, there
are '0 possi&le ,alues. Thus, the total nu%&er is "!'0!'0!'0!'0!'0!'0 = "O'0
+
.

2.42 There are three different positions to #ill usin. ten en.ineers. Then, there are
'0
(
P =
'0N<(N = E20 8i##erent $a-s to #ill the positions.
2.43

'
'
*
+
(
"
= *0) $a-s.
2.44 a. The nu%&er o# $a-s the ta5i nee8in. repair can &e sent to airport C is

*
*
*
8
= *+.
So, the pro&a&ilit- is *+<*0) = '<".
b.

)
)
2
+
(
= )*, so the pro&a&ilit- that e,er- airport recei,es one o# the ta5is re9uirin.
repair is )*<*0).
2.45

'0 E 2
'E
= )08,)08.
2.46 There are

2
'0
$a-s to chose t$o tea%s #or the #irst .a%e,

2
8
#or secon8, etc. So,
there are
*
2
N '0
2
2
2
)
2
+
2
8
2
'0
=

= ''(,)00 $a-s to assi.n the ten tea%s to #i,e

.a%es.
'( Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.47 There are

2
2n
$a-s to chose t$o tea%s #or the #irst .a%e,

2
2 2n
#or secon8, etc.
So, #ollo$in. 65. 2.)+, there are
n
n
2
N 2
$a-s to assi.n 2n tea%s to n .a%es.
2.48 Sa%e ans$er:

*
8
=

(
8
= *+.
2.49 a.

2
'(0
= 8(8*.
b. There are 2+O2+ = +E+ t$o4letter co8es an8 2+!2+!2+ = 'E,*E+ three4letter co8es.
Thus, '8,2*2 total %aIor co8es.
c. 8(8* 1 '(0 = 8*'* re9uire8.
d. Pes.
2.50 T$o nu%&ers, ) an8 +, are possi&le #or each o# the three 8i.its. So, there are 2!2!2 = 8
potential $innin. three48i.it nu%&ers.

2.51 There are

(
*0
= '",+00 $a-s to choose the ( $inners. 6ach o# these is e9uall- li>el-.
a. There are

(
)
= ) $a-s #or the or.aniFers to $in all o# the priFes. The pro&a&ilit- is
)<'"+00.
b. There are

'
)+
2
)
= 2E+ $a-s the or.aniFers can $in t$o priFes an8 one o# the other
)+ people to $in the thir8 priFe. So, the pro&a&ilit- is 2E+<'"+00.
c.

2
)+
'
)
= )')0. The pro&a&ilit- is )')0<'"+00.
d.

(
)+
= '*,'80. The pro&a&ilit- is '*'80<'"+00.
2.52 The mn rule is use8. The total nu%&er o# e5peri%ents is (!(!2 = '8.
2.53 a. In choosin. three o# the #i,e #ir%s, or8er is i%portant. So
*
(
P = +0 sa%ple points.
b. I# F( is a$ar8e8 a contract, there are
)
2
P = '2 $a-s the other contracts can &e
assi.ne8. Since there are ( possi&le contracts, there are (!'2 = (+ total nu%&er o# $a-s
to a$ar8 F( a contract. So, the pro&a&ilit- is (+<+0 = 0.+.
2.54 There are

)
8
= E0 $a-s to chose #our stu8ents #ro% ei.ht. There are

2
*
2
(
= (0
$a-s to chose e5actl- 2 !o# the ( un8er.ra8uates an8 2 !o# the * .ra8uates. I# each
sa%ple point is e9uall- li>el-, the pro&a&ilit- is (0<E0 = 0.E.
Chapter 2: Probability ')
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.55 a.

'0
"0
b.

'0
"0
+
E0
)
20
= 0.'''
2.56 The stu8ent can sol,e all o# the pro&le%s i# the teacher selects * o# the + pro&le%s that
the stu8ent can 8o. The pro&a&ilit- is

*
'0
*
+
= 0.02(8.
2.57 There are

2
*2
= '(2+ $a-s to 8ra$ t$o car8s #ro% the 8ec>. The pro&a&ilit- is
)O'2<'(2+ = 0.0(+2.
2.58 There are

*
*2
= 2,*"8,"+0 $a-s to 8ra$ #i,e car8s #ro% the 8ec>.
a. There are

2
)
(
)
= 2) $a-s to 8ra$ three 0ces an8 t$o Qin.s. So, the pro&a&ilit- is
2)<2*"8"+0.
b. There are '(!'2 = '*+ t-pes o# J#ull houseK han8s. Fro% part a. a&o,e there are 2)
8i##erent $a-s each t-pe o# #ull house han8 can &e %a8e. So, the pro&a&ilit- is
'*+O2)<2*"8"+0 = 0.00')).
2.59 There are

*
*2
= 2,*"8,"+0 $a-s to 8ra$ #i,e car8s #ro% the 8ec>.
a.

'
)
'
)
'
)
'
)
'
)
= )
*
= '02). So, the pro&a&ilit- is '02)<2*"8"+0 = 0.000(").
b. There are " 8i##erent t-pes o# Jstrai.htK han8s. So, the pro&a&ilit- is "!)
*
<2*"8"+0 =
0.00(**. Aote that this also inclu8es Jstrai.ht #lushK an8 Jro-al strai.ht #lushK han8s.
2.60 a.
n
n
(+*
' (+* ! (+( ! (+) ! (+* +
b. /ith n = 2(,
2(
(+*
()( ! (+) ! (+*
'

= 0.*0E.
2.61 a.
n
n
n
(+*
(+)
(+*
(+) ! (+) ! (+) ! (+)
=

. b. /ith n = 2*(,
2*(
(+*
(+)
'

= 0.*00*.

2.62 The nu%&er o# $a-s to 8i,i8e the " %otors into ( .roups o# siFe ( is

N ( N ( N (
N "
=
'+80. I# &oth %otors #ro% a particular supplier are assi.ne8 to the #irst line, there are
onl- E %otors to &e assi.ne8: one to line ' an8 three to lines 2 an8 (. This can &e 8one

N ( N ( N '
N E
= ')0 $a-s. Thus, ')0<'+80 = 0.08((.
2.63 There are

*
8
= *+ sa%ple points in the e5peri%ent, an8 onl- one o# $hich results in
choosin. #i,e $o%en. So, the pro&a&ilit- is '<*+.
'* Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.64
+
+
'
N +

= *<(2).
2.65
) +
+
'
+
2
N *

= *<'+2.
2.66 a. 0#ter assi.nin. an ethnic .roup %e%&er to each t-pe o# Io&, there are '+ la&orers
re%ainin. #or the other Io&s. :et na &e the nu%&er o# $a-s that one ethnic .roup can &e
assi.ne8 to each t-pe o# Io&. Then:

=
) ) ( *
'+
' ' ' '
)
a
n
. The pro&a&ilit- is na<A = 0.'2(8.
b. It 8oesnt %atter ho$ the ethnic .roup %e%&ers are assi.ne8 to Io&s t-pe ', 2, an8 (.
:et na &e the nu%&er o# $a-s that no ethnic %e%&er .ets assi.ne8 to a t-pe ) Io&. Then:

=
*
'+
0
)
a
n
. The pro&a&ilit- is

*
20
*
'+
0
)
= 0.28'E.
2.67 0s sho$n in 65a%ple 2.'(, A = '0
E
.
a. :et A &e the e,ent that all or8ers .o to 8i##erent ,en8ors. Then, 0 contains na = '0!"
!87!) = +0),800 sa%ple points. Thus, P!A = +0),800<'0
E
= 0.0+0*.
b. The 2 or8ers assi.ne8 to =istri&utor I can &e chosen #ro% the E in

2
E
= 2' $a-s.
The ( or8ers assi.ne8 to =istri&utor II can &e chosen #ro% the re%ainin. * in

(
*
=
'0 $a-s. The #inal 2 or8ers can &e assi.ne8 to the re%ainin. 8 8istri&utors in 8
2

$a-s. Thus, there are 2'!'0!8
2
= '(,))0 possi&ilities so the pro&a&ilit- is '())0<'0
E
= 0.00'()).
c. :et A &e the e,ent that =istri&utors I, II, an8 III .et e5actl- 2, (, an8 ' or8er!s
respecti,el-. Then, there is one re%ainin. unassi.ne8 or8er. Thus, A contains
E
'
2
(
*
2
E

= 2")0 sa%ple points an8 P!A = 2")0<'0

E
= 0.0002".
2.68 a.

n
n
=
N ! N
N
n n n
n

= '. There is onl- one $a- to choose all o# the ite%s.

b.

0
n
=
N 0 ! N 0
N
n
n
= '. There is onl- one $a- to chose none o# the ite%s.
c.

r
n
=
N ! N
N
r n r
n

=
N ! ! N !
N
r n n r n
n

=

r n
n
. There are the sa%e nu%&er o#
$a-s to choose r out o# n o&Iects as there are to choose n B r out o# n o&Iects.
d.

=

= + =
n
i
i i n
n
i
n n
i
n
i
n
' '
' ' ' ' ! 2 .
Chapter 2: Probability '+
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.69
N ' ! N
N ' !
N ' ! N
N
N ' ! N
' ! N
N ' ! N ' !
N
N ! N
N
' k n k
n
k n k
k n
k n k
k n n
k n k
n
k n k
n
k
n
k
n
+
+
=
+
+
+
+
=
+
+

2.70 Fro% Theore% 2.(, let y' = y2 = 7 = yk = '.

2.71 a. P!ARB = .'<.( = '<(. b. P!BRA = .'<.* = '<*.
c. P!AR B A = .*<!.*1.(4.' = *<E d. P!ARAB = ', since 0 has occurre8.
e. P!ABR B A = .'!.*1.(4.' = '<E.
2.72 Aote that P!A = 0.+ an8 P!ARM = .2)<.) = 0.+. So, A an8 M are in8epen8ent. Si%ilarl-,
P!
F A R
= .2)<.+ = 0.) = P! A , so A an8 F are in8epen8ent.
2.73 a. P!at least one ; = P!;e8 (<). b. P!at least one r = (<).
c. P!one r R ;e8 = .*<.E* = 2<(.
2.74 a. P!A = 0.+', P!D = .(0. P!AD = .20. =epen8ent.
b. P!B = 0.(0, P!D = .(0. P!BD = 0.0". In8epen8ent.
c. P!C = 0.0", P!D = .(0. P!CD = 0.0'. =epen8ent.
'E Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.75 a. Li,en the #irst t$o car8s 8ra$n are spa8es, there are '' spa8es le#t in the 8ec>. Thus,
the pro&a&ilit- is

(
*0
(
''
= 0.008). Aote: this is also e9ual to P!S(S)S*RS'S2.
b. Li,en the #irst three car8s 8ra$n are spa8es, there are '0 spa8es le#t in the 8ec>. Thus,
the pro&a&ilit- is

2
)"
2
'0
= 0.0(8(. Aote: this is also e9ual to P!S)S*RS'S2S(.
c. Li,en the #irst #our car8s 8ra$n are spa8es, there are " spa8es le#t in the 8ec>. Thus,
the pro&a&ilit- is

'
)8
'
"
= 0.'8E*. Aote: this is also e9ual to P!S*RS'S2S(S)
2.76 =e#ine the e,ents: U: Io& is unsatis#actor- A: plu%&er A 8oes the Io&
a. P!URA = P!AU<P!A = P!ARUP!U<P!A = .*O.'<.) = 0.'2*
b. Fro% part a. a&o,e, ' B P!URA = 0.8E*.
2.77 a. 0.)0 b. 0.(E c. 0.'0 d. 0.)0 1 0.(E B 0.'0 = 0.+E
e. ' B 0.) = 0.+ f. ' B 0.+E = 0.(( g. ' B 0.'0 = 0."0
h. .'<.(E = 0.2E i. '<.) = 0.2*
2.78 1. 0ssu%e P!ARB = P!A. Then:
P!AB = P!ARBP!B = P!AP!B. P!BRA = P!BA<P!A = P!AP!B<P!A = P!B.
2. 0ssu%e P!BRA = P!B. Then:
P!AB = P!BRAP!A = P!BP!A. P!ARB = P!AB<P!B = P!AP!B<P!B = P!A.
3. 0ssu%e P!AB = P!BP!A. The results #ollo$ #ro% a&o,e.
2.79 I# A an8 B are M.6., P!AB = 0. 2ut, P!AD!B S 0. So the- are not in8epen8ent.

2.80 I# B A , P!AB = P!A T P!AP!B, unless B = S !in $hich case P!B = '.
2.81 Li,en D(A U P!ARB = P!AB<P!B = P!BRAP!A<P!B, sol,e #or P!BRA in the
ine9ualit-.
2.82 P!BRA = P!BA<P!A = P!A<P!A = '
P!ARB = P!AB<P!B = P!A<P!B.
2.83 P!A
B A R
= P!A<P! B A =
! !
!
B P A P
A P
+
, since A an8 B are M.6. e,ents.
Chapter 2: Probability '8
Instructors Solutions Manual

2.84 Aote that i# P! ( 2
A A
= 0, then P! ( 2 '
A A A
also e9uals 0. The result #ollo$s
#ro% Theore% 2.+.
2.85 P!
R B A
= P! B A <P! B =
[ ] [ ]
!
! ! '
!
! R ! '
!
! R !
B P
A P B P
B P
A P A B P
B P
A P A B P
=

=
=
. !
!
! !
A P
B P
A P B P
=
So,
B A an8
are in8epen8ent.
P! R A B = P! A B <P! A =
[ ]
!
! R ! '
!
! R !
A P
B P B A P
A P
B P B A P
=
. Fro% the a&o,e,
B A an8
are in8epen8ent. So P!
R A B
=
[ ]
. !
!
! !
!
! ! '
B P
A P
B P A P
A P
B P A P
= =

So,
B A an8
are in8epen8ent

2.86 a. Ao. It #ollo$s #ro% P!
B A
= P!A 1 P!B B P!AB H '.
b. P!AB G 0.*
c. Ao.
d. P!AB H 0.E0.

2.87 a. P!A 1 P!B B '.
b. the s%aller o# P!A an8 P!B.
2.88 a. Pes.
b. 0, since the- coul8 &e 8isIoint.
c. Ao, since P!AB cannot &e lar.er than either o# P!A or P!B.
d. 0.( = P!A.
2.89 a. 0, since the- coul8 &e 8isIoint.
b. the s%aller o# P!A an8 P!B.
2.90 a. !'<*0!'<*0 = 0.000).
b. P!at least one inIur- = ' B P!no inIuries in *0 Iu%ps = ' = !)"<*0
*0
= 0.+(+. Pour
#rien8 is not correct.
2.91 I# A an8 B are M.6., P!
B A
= P!A 1 P!B. This ,alue is .reater than ' i# P!A = 0.)
an8 P!B = 0.E. So the- cannot &e M.6. It is possi&le i# P!A = 0.) an8 P!B = 0.(.

2.92 a. The three tests are in8epen8ent. So, the pro&a&ilit- in 9uestion is !.0*
(
= 0.000'2*.
b. P!at least one %ista>e = ' B D!no %ista>es = ' B !."*
(
= 0.')(.
2.93 :et C 8enote a hit an8 let M 8enote a %iss. Then, she $ins the .a%e in three trials $ith
the e,ents CCC, CCM, an8 MCC. I# she &e.ins $ith her ri.ht han8, the pro&a&ilit- she
$ins the .a%e, assu%in. in8epen8ence, is !.E!.)!.E 1 !.E!.)!.( 1 !.(!.)!.E = 0.(+).
2.94 =e#ine the e,ents A: 8e,ice A 8etects s%o>e B: 8e,ice B 8etects s%o>e
a. P!
B A
= ."* 1 ."0 4 .88 = 0."E.
'" Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
b. P!s%o>e is un8etecte8 = ' 4 P!
B A
= ' B 0."E = 0.0(.
2.95 Dart a is #oun8 usin. the 088ition ;ule. Darts & an8 c use =eMor.ans :a$s.
a. 0.2 1 0.( B 0.) = 0.'
b. ' B 0.' = 0."
c. ' B 0.) = 0.+
d.
( .
' . ( .
!
! !
!
!
R !

=

=

=
B P
B A P B P
B P
B A P
B A P
= 2<(.
2.96 @sin. the results o# 65. 2."*:
a. 0.* 1 0.2 B !0.*!0.2 = 0.+.
b. ' B 0.+ = 0.).
c. ' B 0.' = 0.".
2.97 a. P!current #lo$s = ' B P!all three rela-s are open = ' B !.'
(
= 0.""".
b. :et A &e the e,ent that current #lo$s an8 B &e the e,ent that rela- ' close8 properl-.
Then, P!BRA = P!BA<P!A = P!B<P!A = ."<.""" = 0."00". Aote that A B .
2.98 Series s-ste%: P!&oth rela-s are close8 = !."!." = 0.8'
Darallel s-ste%: P!at least one rela- is close8 = ." 1 ." B .8' = 0."".

2.99 Li,en that ! B A P = a, P!B = b, an8 that A an8 B are in8epen8ent. Thus P!
B A
= ' B a an8 P!BA = bP!A. Thus, P!
B A
= P!A 1 b 4 bP!A = ' B a. Sol,e #or
P!A.

2.100
!
! !!
!
!!
R !
C P
C B C A P
C P
C B A P
C B A P

=

=
=
!
! ! !
C P
C B A P C B P C A P +
= P!ARC 1 P!BRC 1 P!ABRC.
2.101 :et 0 &e the e,ent the ite% .ets past the #irst inspector an8 2 the e,ent it .ets past the
secon8 inspector. Then, P!A = 0.' an8 P!BRA = 0.*. Then P!AB = .'!.* = 0.0*.

2.102 =e#ine the e,ents: I: 8isease I us contracte8 II: 8isease II is contracte8. Then,
P!I = 0.', P!II = 0.'*, an8 P!III = 0.0(.
a. P!I II = .' 1 .'* B .0( = 0.22
b. P!IIIRI II = .0(<.22 = (<22.
2.103 0ssu%e that the t$o state lotteries are in8epen8ent.
a. P!+++ in CTR+++ in D0 = P!+++ in CT = 0.00'
b. P!+++ in CT+++ in D0 = P!+++ in CTP!+++ in D0 = .00'!'<8 = 0.000'2*.
2.104 2- =eMor.ans :a$, ! ' ! ' ! B A P B A P B A P = = . Since
! B A P
H
! ! B P A P +
,
! B A P
G ' B
. ! ! B P A P
Chapter 2: Probability 20
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.105 D!lan8in. sa#el- on &oth Iu%ps G B 0.0* B 0.0* = 0."0.
2.106 Aote that it %ust &e also true that
! ! B P A P =
. @sin. the result in 65. 2.'0),
! B A P
G ' B 2
! A P
G 0."8, so P!A G 0."".
2.107 !0ns$ers ,ar- Consi8er #lippin. a coin t$ice. =e#ine the e,ents:
A: o&ser,e at least one tail B: o&ser,e t$o hea8s or t$o tails C: o&ser,e t$o hea8s
2.108 :et U an8 V &e t$o e,ents. Then, &- 65. 2.'0),
! V U P
G ' B
. ! ! V P U P
:et U
= AB an8 V = C. Then,
! C B A P
G ' B ! ! C P B A P . 0ppl- 65. 2.'0) to
! B A P to o&tain the result.

2.109 This is si%ilar to 65. 2.'0+. 0ppl- 65. 2.'08: 0."* H ' B
! ! ! C P B P A P
H
! C B A P
. Since the e,ents ha,e the sa%e pro&a&ilit-, 0."* H '
! ( A P
. Thus,
P!A G 0."8((.
2.110 =e#ine the e,ents:
I: ite% is #ro% line I II: ite% is #ro% line II N: ite% is not 8e#ecti,e
Then, P!N = P!
! II I N
= P!NI 1 P!NII = ."2!.) 1 ."0!.+ = 0."08.
2.111 =e#ine the #ollo$in. e,ents:
A: &u-er sees the %a.aFine a8
B: &u-er sees the T? a8
C: &u-er purchases the pro8uct
The #ollo$in. are >no$n: P!A = .02, P!B = .20, P!AB = .0'. Thus
! B A P
= .2'.
0lso, P!&u-er sees no a8 =
! B A P
= '
! B A P
= ' B 0.2' = 0.E". Finall-, it is
>no$n that
R ! B A C P
= 0.' an8
R ! B A C P
= '<(. So, $e can #in8 P!C as
P!C =
! ! ! ! B A C P B A C P +
= !'<(!.2' 1 !.'!.E" = 0.')".
2.112 a. D!aircra#t un8etecte8 = D!all three #ail to 8etect = !.02!.02!.02 = !.02
(
.
b. D!all three 8etect aircra#t = !."8
(
.
2.113 2- in8epen8ence, !."8!."8!."8!.02 = !."8
(
!.02.
2.114 :et T = {8etects truth} an8 L = {8etects lie}. The sa%ple space is TT, TL, LT, LL. Since
one suspect is .uilt-, assu%e the .uilt- suspect is 9uestione8 #irst:
a. P!LL = ."*!.'0 = 0.0"* b. P!LT = .."*!." = 0.88*
b. P!TL = .0*!.'0 = 0.00* d. ' B !.0*!."0 = 0."**
2.115 2- in8epen8ence, !.E*!.E*!.E*!.E* = !.E*
)
.

2.116 2- the co%ple%ent rule, D!s-ste% $or>s = ' B D!s-ste% #ails = ' B !.0'
(
.
2' Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.117 a. Fro% the 8escription o# the pro&le%, there is a *0V chance a car $ill &e reIecte8. To
#in8 the pro&a&ilit- that three out o# #our $ill &e reIecte8 !i.e. the 8ri,ers chose tea% 2,
note that there are

(
)
= ) $a-s that three o# the #our cars are e,aluate8 &- tea% 2.
6ach one has pro&a&ilit- !.*!.*!.*!.* o# occurrin., so the pro&a&ilit- is )!.*
)
= 0.2*.
b. The pro&a&ilit- that all #our pass !i.e. all #our are e,aluate8 &- tea% ' is !.*
)
= '<'+.
2.118 I# the ,icti% is to &e sa,e8, a proper 8onor %ust &e #oun8 $ithin ei.ht %inutes. The
patient $ill &e sa,e8 i# the proper 8onor is #oun8 on the '
st
, 2
n8
, (
r8
, or )
th
tr-. 2ut, i# the
8onor is #oun8 on the 2
n8
tr-, that i%plies he<she $asnt #oun8 on the '
st
tr-. So, the
pro&a&ilit- o# sa,in. the patient is #oun8 &-, lettin. A = {correct 8onor is #oun8}:
P!sa,e = P!A 1
! ! ! A A A A P A A A P A A P + +
.
2- in8epen8ence, this is .) 1 .+!.) 1 !.+
2
!.) 1 !.+
(
!.) = 0.8E0)
2.119 a. =e#ine the e,ents: A: o&tain a su% o# ( B: 8o not o&tain a su% o# ( or E
Since there are (+ possi&le rolls, P!A = 2<(+ an8 P!B = 28<(+. 3&tainin. a su% o# (
&e#ore a su% o# E can happen on the '
st
roll, the 2
n8
roll, the (
r8
roll, etc. @sin. the e,ents
a&o,e, $e can $rite these as A, BA, BBA, BBBA, etc. The pro&a&ilit- o# o&tainin. a su%
o# ( &e#ore a su% o# E is .i,en &- P!A 1 P!BP!A 1 WP!BX
2
P!A 1 WP!BX
(
P!A 1 7 .
!Cere, $e are usin. the #act that the rolls are in8epen8ent. This is an in#inite su%, an8 it
#ollo$s as a .eo%etric series. Thus, 2<(+ 1 !28<(+!2<(+ 1 !28<(+
2
!2<2+ 1 7 = '<).
b. Si%ilar to part a. =e#ine C: o&tain a su% o# ) D: 8o not o&tain a su% o# ) or E
Then, P!C = (<(+ an8 P!D = 2E<(+. The pro&a&ilit- o# o&tainin. a ) &e#ore a E is '<(.
2.120 =enote the e,ents G: .oo8 re#ri.erator D: 8e#ecti,e re#ri.erator
a. I# the last 8e#ecti,e re#ri.erator is #oun8 on the )
th
test, this %eans the #irst 8e#ecti,e
re#ri.erator $as #oun8 on the '
st
, 2
n8
, or (
r8
test. So, the possi&ilities are =LL=, L=L=,
an8 LL==. So, the pro&a&ilit- is ( )( )( )
(
'
)
(
*
)
+
2
. The pro&a&ilities associate8 $ith the
other t$o e,ents are i8entical to the #irst. So, the 8esire8 pro&a&ilit- is ( ( )( )( )
*
'
(
'
)
(
*
)
+
2
= .
b. Cere, the secon8 8e#ecti,e re#ri.erator %ust &e #oun8 on the 2
n8
, (
r8
, or )
th
test. =e#ine:
A': secon8 8e#ecti,e #oun8 on 2
n8
test
A2: secon8 8e#ecti,e #oun8 on (
r8
test
A(: secon8 8e#ecti,e #oun8 on )
th
test
Clearl-, P!A' = ( )( )
'*
'
*
'
+
2
= . 0lso, P!A( =
*
'
#ro% part a. Aote that A2 = {DGD,
GDD}.
Thus, P!A2 = 2( )( )( )
'*
2
)
'
*
)
+
2
= . So, P!A' 1 P!A2 1 P!A( = 2<*.
c. =e#ine: B': secon8 8e#ecti,e #oun8 on (
r8
test
B2: secon8 8e#ecti,e #oun8 on )
th
test
Clearl-, P!B' = '<) an8 P!B2 = !(<)!'<( = '<). So, P!B' 1 P!B2 = '<2.
Chapter 2: Probability 22
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.121 a. '<n
b.
'
' '

n n
n
= '<n.
2
'
'
2 '



n n
n
n
n
= '<n.
c. P!.ain access = P!#irst tr- 1 P!secon8 tr- 1 P!thir8 tr- = (<E.
2.122 0pplet e5ercise !ans$ers ,ar-.

2.123 0pplet e5ercise !ans$ers ,ar-.
2.124 =e#ine the e,ents #or the ,oter: D: 8e%ocrat : repu&lican F: #a,ors issue
" < E
) !. ( . + !. E .
+ !. E .
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R ! =
+
=
+
=
P F P D P D F P
D P D F P
F D P
2.125 =e#ine the e,ents #or the person: D: has the 8isease !: test in8icates the 8isease
Thus, P!!RD = .",
R ! D ! P
= .", P!D = .0', an8
!D P
= ."". Thus,
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
D P D ! P D P D ! P
D P D ! P
! D P
+
=
= '<'2.
2.126 a. !."*O.0'<!."*O.0' 1 .'O."" = 0.08E*+.
b. .""O.0'<!.""O.0' 1 .'O."" = '<''.
c. 3nl- a s%all percenta.e o# the population has the 8isease.
d. I# the speci#icit- is ."", the positi,e pre8icti,e ,alue is .*.
e. The sensiti,it- an8 speci#icit- shoul8 &e as close to ' as possi&le.

2.127 a. ."O.)<!."O.) 1 .'O.+ = 0.8*E.
b. 0 lar.er proportion o# the population has the 8isease, so the nu%erator an8
8eno%inator ,alues are closer.
c. AoY i# the sensiti,it- is ', the lar.est ,alue #or the positi,e pre8icti,e ,alue is .8+"+.
d. Pes, &- increasin. the speci#icit-.
e. The speci#icit- is %ore i%portant $ith tests use8 #or rare 8iseases.
2.128 a. :et
. R ! R ! " B A P B A P = =
2- the :a$ o# Total Dro&a&ilit-,
( ) . ! ! ! R ! ! R ! ! " B P B P " B P B A P B P B A P A P = + = + =
Thus, A an8 B are in8epen8ent.
b.
! ! R ! ! R ! ! R ! ! R ! ! B P C P C B P C P C B P C P C A P C P C A P A P = + > + =
.
2.129 =e#ine the e,ents: P: positi,e response M: %ale respon8ent F: #e%ale respon8ent
P!PRF = .E, P!PRM = .), P!M = .2*. @sin. 2a-es rule,
E* !. ( . 2* !. + .
2* !. + .
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
+
=
+
=
F P F P P M P M P P
M P M P P
P M P
= 0.).
2.130 =e#ine the e,ents: C: contract lun. cancer S: $or>e8 in a ship-ar8
Thus, P!SRC = .22,
R ! C S P
= .'), an8 P!C = .000). @sin. 2a-es rule,
2( Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
"""+ !. ') . 000) !. 22 .
000) !. 22 .
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
+
=
+
=
C P C S P C P C S P
C P C S P
S C P
= 0.000+.
2.131 The a88iti,e la$ o# pro&a&ilit- .i,es that
! ! ! B A P B A P B A P + =
. 0lso, A an8
B can &e $ritten as the union o# t$o 8isIoint sets:
! ! B A B A A =
an8
! ! B A B A B =
. Thus,
! ! ! B A P A P B A P =
an8
! ! ! B A P B P B A P =
. Thus,
! 2 ! ! ! B A P B P A P B A P + =
.
2.132 For i = ', 2, (, let Fi represent the e,ent that the plane is #oun8 in re.ion i an8 Ni &e the
co%ple%ent. 0lso ;i is the e,ent the plane is in re.ion i. Then P!FiRi = ' B Zi an8 P!i
= '<( #or all i. Then,
a.
! R ! ! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
( ( ' 2 2 ' ' ' '
' ' '
' '
P N P P N P P N P
P N P
N P
+ +
=
=
(
'
(
'
(
'
'
(
'
'
+ +

=
2
'
'
+

.
b. Si%ilarl-,
2
'
R !
'
' 2
+
=

N P
an8 c.
2
'
R !
'
' (
+
=

N P
.
2.133 =e#ine the e,ents: G: stu8ent .uesses C: stu8ent is correct
R ! C G P
=
2 !. 2* . 8 !. '
8 !. '
! R ! ! R !
! R !
+
=
+ G P G C P G P G C P
G P G C P
= 0.")'2.
2.134 =e#ine F as J#ailure to learn. Then, P!FRA = .2, P!FRB = .', P!A = .E, P!B = .(. 2-
2a-es rule, P!ARF = ')<'E.

2.135 :et M = %aIor airline, P = pri,ate airline, C = co%%ercial airline, B = tra,el #or &usiness
a. P!B = P!BRMP!M 1 P!BRPP!P 1 P!BRCP!C = .+!.* 1 .(!.+ 1 .'!." = 0.*E.
b. P!BP = P!BRPP!P = .(!.+ = 0.'8.
c. P!PRB = P!BP<P!B = .'8<.*E = 0.('*8.
d. P!BRC = 0."0.
2.136 :et A = $o%ans na%e is selecte8 #ro% list ', B = $o%ans na%e is selecte8 #ro% list 2.
Thus, P!A = *<E,
R ! A B P
= 2<(,
R ! A B P
= E<".
( )
( ) ( ) ))
(0
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
E
2
"
E
E
*
(
2
E
*
(
2
=
+
=
+
=
A P A B P A P A B P
A P A B P
B A P
.
2.137 :et A = {&oth &alls are $hite}, an8 #or i = ', 2, 7 *
Ai = &oth &alls selecte8 #ro% &o$l i are $hite. Then
. A A
i
=
Bi = &o$l i is selecte8. Then,
!
i
B P
= .2 #or all i.
a. P!A =
! R !
i i i
B P B A P
= ( ) ( ) ( ) [ ] ' 0
)
(
*
)
)
2
*
(
)
'
*
2
*
'
+ + + + = 2<*.
Chapter 2: Probability 2)
Instructors Solutions Manual
b. @sin. 2a-es rule, P!B(RA =
*0
2
*0
(
= (<20.

2.138 =e#ine the e,ents:
A: the pla-er $ins
Bi: a su% o# i on #irst toss
Ck: o&tain a su% o# k &e#ore o&tainin. a E
Ao$,

=
=
'2
'
! !
i
i
B A P A P
. /e ha,e that
! ! !
'2 ( 2
B A P B A P B A P = =
= 0.
0lso, , ! !
(+
+
E E
= = B P B A P
(+
2
'' ''
! ! = = B P B A P .
Ao$, ( )
(+
(
(+
(
(
'
E ) E ) )
! ! ! ! = = = = B P C P B C P B A P !usin. in8epen8ence 65. ''".
Si%ilarl-, D!C* = D!C" =
'0
)
, D!C+ = D!C8 =
''
*
, an8 D!C'0 =
"
(
.
Thus,
(+
'
'0 ("+
2*
8 + )*
2
" *
! , ! ! , ! ! = = = = = B A P B A P B A P B A P B A P
.
Duttin. all o# this to.ether, P!A = 0.)"(.
2.139 Fro% 65. '.''2, P!# = 0 = !.02
(
an8 P!# = ( = !."8
(
. The e,ent # = ' are the e,ents
FDF, DFF, an8 FFD, each ha,in. pro&a&ilit- !.02
2
!."8. So, P!# = ' = (!.02
2
!."8.
Si%ilarl-, P!# = 2 = (!.02!."8
2
.
2.140 The total nu%&er o# $a-s to select ( #ro% + re#ri.erators is

(
+
= 20. The total nu%&er
o# $a-s to select y 8e#ecti,es an8 ( B y non8e#ecti,es is

y y (
) 2
, y = 0, ', 2. So,
P!# = 0 =
20
(
)
0
2

= )<20, P!# = ' = )<20, an8 P!# = 2 = '2<20.

2.141 The e,ents # = 2, # = (, an8 # = ) $ere #oun8 in 65. 2.'20 to ha,e pro&a&ilities '<'*,
2<'*, an8 (<'* !respecti,el-. The e,ent # = * can occur in #our $a-s:
DGGGD GDGGD GGDGD GGGDD
6ach o# these possi&ilities has pro&a&ilit- '<'*, so that D!# = * = )<'*. 2- the
co%ple%ent rule, D!P = + = *<'*.
2.142 6ach position has pro&a&ilit- '<), so e,er- or8erin. o# t$o positions !#ro% t$o spins has
pro&a&ilit- '<'+. The ,alues #or # are 2, (. D!# = 2 =
'+
'
2
)

= (<). So, D!# = ( = '<).

2.143 Since
! ! ! A B P A B P B P + =
, ' =
R ! R !
!
!
!
!
B A P B A P
B P
A B P
B P
A B P
+ =

.
2* Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.144 a. S = {'+ possi&ilities o# 8ra$in. 0 to ) o# the sa%ple points}
b.
. 2 '+ ' ) + ) '
)
)
(
)
2
)
'
)
0
)
)
= = + + + + =

c. = B A {$', $2, $(, $)}, = B A {$2}, 0/ = B A , = B A {$2, $)}.

2.145 0ll '8 or8erin.s are possi&le, so the total nu%&er o# or8erin.s is '8N

2.146 There are

*
*2
$a-s to 8ra$ * car8s #ro% the 8ec>. For each suit, there are

*
'(
$a-s
to select * car8s. Since there are ) suits, the pro&a&ilit- is

*
*2
*
'(
)
= 0.002)8.
2.147 The .a%&ler $ill ha,e a #ull house i# he is 8ealt {t$o >in.s} or {an ace an8 a >in.}
!there are )E car8s re%ainin. in the 8ec>, t$o o# $hich are aces an8 three are >in.s.
The pro&a&ilities o# these t$o e,ents are

2
)E
2
(
an8

2
)E
'
2
'
(
, respecti,el-. So,
the pro&a&ilit- o# a #ull house is

2
)E
2
(
1

2
)E
'
2
'
(
= 0.008(.
2.148 Aote that
)"*
)
'2
=

. D!each supplier has at least one co%ponent teste8 is .i,en &-

)"*
2
*
'
)
'
(
'
*
2
)
'
(
'
*
'
)
2
(

= 2E0<)E* = 0.*)*.
2.149 :et A &e the e,ent that the person has s-%pto% A an8 8e#ine B si%ilarl-. Then
a. ! B A P =
! B A P
= 0.)
b.
! B A P
= ' B ! B A P = 0.+.
c.
! < ! R ! B P B A P B B A P =
= .'<.) = 0.2*
2.150 P!# = 0 = 0.), P!# = ' = 0.2 1 0.( = 0.*, P!# = 2 = 0.'.
2.151 The pro&a&ilit- that tea% 0 $ins in * .a%es is "
)
!' B " an8 the pro&a&ilit- that tea% 2
$ins in * .a%es is "!' B "
)
. Since there are ) $a-s that each tea% can $in in * .a%es,
the pro&a&ilit- is )W"
)
!' B " 1 "!' B "
)
X.
2.152 :et 8enote the e,ent that the speci%en turns re8 an8 N 8enote the e,ent that the
speci%en contains nitrates.
a.
! R ! ! R ! ! N P N P N P N P P + =
= ."*!.( 1 .'!.E = 0.(**.
b. @sin. 2a-es rule, P!NR = ."*!.(<.(** = 0.80(.
Chapter 2: Probability 2+
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.153 @sin. 2a-es rule,
! R ! ! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
( ( 2 2 ' '
' '
'
I P I ! P I P I ! P I P I ! P
I P I ! P
! I P
+ +
=
= 0.('(.
2.154 :et # = the nu%&er o# pairs chosen. Then, the possi&le ,alues are 0, ', an8 2.
a. There are

)
'0
= 2'0 $a-s to choose ) soc>s #ro% '0 an8 there are

)
*
2
)
= 80
$a-s to pic> ) non4%atchin. soc>s. So, P!# = 0 = 80<2'0.
b. LeneraliFin. the a&o,e, the pro&a&ilit- is

r
n
r
n
r
2
2
2
2
2
.
2.155 a. P!A = .2* 1 .' 1 .0* 1 .' = .*
b. P!AB = .' 1 .0* = 0.'*.
c. 0.'0
d. @sin. the result #ro% 65. 2.80,
) .
'* . 2* . 2* . +
= 0.8E*.
2.156 a. i. ' B *+8+<"E"00 = 0.")2 ii. !"E"00 B )((*)<"E"00 = 0.**E
ii. '0*+0<')''( = 0.E)8 i,. !+)+1(E*1*+8<''*(( = 0.'(8
b. I# the @S population in 2002 $as >no$n, this coul8 &e use8 to 8i,i8e into the total
nu%&er o# 8eaths in 2002 to .i,e a pro&a&ilit-.

2.157 :et D 8enote 8eath 8ue to lun. cancer an8 S 8enote &ein. a s%o>er. Thus:
8 !. R ! 2 !. R ! '0 ! R ! ! R ! ! S D P S D P S P S D P S P S D P D P + = + =
= 0.00+. Thus,
02' . 0 R ! = S D P
.
2.158 :et % 8enote the e,en that the #irst &all is $hite an8 B 8enote the e,ent that the secon8
&all is &lac>. Then:
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
% P % B P % P % B P
% P % B P
B % P
+
=
=
( )
( ) ( )
b &
b
n b &
n b
b &
&
n b &
b
b &
&
n b &
b
+ + +
+
+ + +
+ + +
+
=
n b &
&
+ +
2.159 Aote that 0/ = S S , an8 S an8 0/ are 8isIoint. So, ' = P!S = P!S 1 P! 0/ an8 there#ore
P! 0/ = 0.

2.160 There are '0 non8e#ecti,e an8 2 8e#ecti,e tu&es that ha,e &een 8ra$n #ro% the %achine,
an8 nu%&er o# 8istinct arran.e%ents is

2
'2
= ++.
a. The pro&a&ilit- o# o&ser,in. the speci#ic arran.e%ent is '<++.
2E Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
b. There are t$o such arran.e%ents that consist o# Jruns.K In a88ition to $hat $as
.i,en in part !a, the other is DDNNNNNNNNNNNN. Thus, the pro&a&ilit- o# t$o
runs is 2<++ = '<((.
2.161 /e %ust #in8 P! H ( = P! = ( 1 P! = 2, since the %ini%u% ,alue #or is 2. I8 the
t$o Ds occurs on consecuti,e trials !&ut not in positions ' an8 2 or '' an8 '2, there are
" such arran.e%ents. The onl- other case is a 8e#ecti,e in position ' an8 '2, so that
!co%&inin. $ith 65. 2.'+0 $ith = 2, there are '2 possi&ilities. So, D! H ( = '2<++.

2.162 There are "N $a-s #or the atten8ant to par> the cars. There are (N $a-s to par> the
e5pensi,e cars to.ether an8 there are E $a-s the e5pensi,e cars can &e ne5t to each other
in the " spaces. So, the pro&a&ilit- is E!(N<"N = '<'2.
2.163 :et A &e the e,ent that current #lo$s in 8esi.n A an8 let B &e 8e#ine8 si%ilarl-. =esi.n 0
$ill #unction i# !' or 2 [ !( or ) operate. =esi.n 2 $ill #unction i# !' [ ( or !2 [ )
operate. =enote the e,ent i = {rela- i operates properl-}, i = ', 2, (, ). So, usin.
in8epen8ence an8 the a88ition rule,
P!A =
! !
) ( 2 '

= !." 1 ." B ."
2
!." 1 ." B ."
2
= 0."80'.
P!B =
! !
) 2 ( '

= ."
2
1 ."
2
B !."
2

2
= ."+(".
So, 8esi.n A has the hi.her pro&a&ilit-.
2.164 @sin. the notation #ro% 65. 2.'+(, ! < ! R !
) ' ) '
A P A P A P = .
Aote that
) ' ) '
A = , since the e,ent ' ) represents a path #or the current
to #lo$. The pro&a&ilit- o# this a&o,e e,ent is ."
2
= .8', an8 the con8itional pro&a&ilit- is
in 9uestion is .8'<."80' = 0.82+).
2.165 @sin. the notation #ro% 65. 2.'+(, ! < ! R !
) ' ) '
B P B P B P = .
= = ! ! !
) 2 ( ' ) ' ) '
B ! !
) 2 ( ) '
. The
pro&a&ilit- o# the a&o,e e,ent is ."
(
1 ."
2
4 ."
)
= 0.882". So, the con8itional pro&a&ilit- in
9uestion is .882"<."+(" = 0."'+.
2.166 There are

)
8
= E0 $a-s to choose the tires. I# the &est tire the custo%er has is ran>e8
\(, the other three tires are #ro% ran>s ), *, +, E, 8. There are

(
*
= '0 $a-s to select
three tires #ro% these #i,e, so that the pro&a&ilit- is '0<E0 = '<E.
2.167 I# # = ', the custo%er chose the &est tire. There are

(
E
= (* $a-s to choose the
re%ainin. tires, so P!# = ' = (*<E0 = .*.
I# # = 2, the custo%er chose the secon8 &est tire. There are

(
+
= 20 $a-s to choose the
re%ainin. tires, so P!# = 2 = 20<E0 = 2<E. @sin. the sa%e lo.ic, P!# = ) = )<E0 an8 so
P!# = * = '<E0.
Chapter 2: Probability 28
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.168 a. The t$o other tires pic>e8 &- the custo%er %ust ha,e ran>s ), *, or +. So, there are

2
(
= ( $a-s to 8o this. So, the pro&a&ilit- is (<E0.
b. There are #our $a-s the ran.e can &e ): \' to \*, \2 to \+, \( to \E, an8 \) to \8.
6ach has pro&a&ilit- (<E0 !as #oun8 in part a. So, P! = ) = '2<E0.
c. Si%ilar to parts a an8 &, P! = ( = *<E0, P! = * = '8<E0, P! = + = 20<E0, an8
P! = E = '*<E0.
2.169 a. For each &eer 8rin>er, there are )N = 2) $a-s to ran> the &eers. So there are 2)
(
=
'(,82) total sa%ple points.
b. In or8er to achie,e a co%&ine8 score o# ) our less, the .i,en &eer %a- recei,e at %ost
one score o# t$o an8 the rest &ein. one. Consi8er &ran8 0. I# a &eer 8rin>er assi.ns a
one to 0 there are still (N = + $a-s to ran> the other &ran8s. So, there are +
(
$a-s #or
&ran8 0 to &e assi.ne8 all ones. Si%ilarl-, &ran8 0 can &e assi.ne8 t$o ones an8 one t$o
in (!(N
(
$a-s. Thus, so%e &eer %a- earn a total ran> less than or e9ual to #our in
)W+
(
1 (!(N
(
X = ()*+ $a-s. So, the pro&a&ilit- is ()*+<'(82) = 0.2*.
2.170 There are

(
E
= (* $a-s to select three na%es #ro% se,en. I# the #irst na%e on the list is
inclu8e8, the other t$o na%es can &e pic>e8

2
+
= '* $a-s. So, the pro&a&ilit- is '*<(*
= (<E.
2.171 It is state8 that the pro&a&ilit- that S>-la& $ill hit so%eone is !uncon8itionall- '<'*0,
$ithout re.ar8 to $here that person li,es. I# one $ants to >no$ the pro&a&ilit- con8ition
on li,in. in a certain area, it is not possi&le to 8eter%ine.
2.172 3nl-
' R ! R ! = + B A P B A P
is true #or an- e,ents A an8 B.
2.173 =e#ine the e,ents: D: ite% is 8e#ecti,e C: ite% .oes throu.h inspection
Thus P!D = .', P!CRD = .+, an8
R ! D C P
= .2. Thus,
! R ! ! R !
! R !
R !
D P D C P D P D C P
D P D C P
C D P
+
=
= .2*.
2.174 :et A = athlete 8is9uali#ie8 pre,iousl- B = athlete 8is9uali#ie8 ne5t ter%
Then, $e >no$
( . ! , * . R ! , '* . R ! = = = A P A B P A B P
. To #in8 P!B, use the la$ o#
total pro&a&ilit-: P!B = .(!.* 1 .E!.'* = 0.2**.
2" Chapter 2: Probability
Instructors Solutions Manual
2.175 Aote that P!A = P!B = P!C = .*. 2ut,
! C B A P
= P!!! = .2* T !.*
(
. So, the-
are not %utuall- in8epen8ent.
2.176 a.
X ! W! X W! C B C A P C B A P =
=
! ! ! C B A P C B P C A P +

! X ! ! ! ! W ! ! ! ! ! ! ! C P B P A P B P A P C P B P A P C P B P C P A P + = + =
! ! C P B A P =
.
b. Si%ilar to part a a&o,e.
2.177 a. P!no inIur- in *0 Iu%ps = !)"<*0
*0
= 0.(+).
b. P!at least one inIur- in *0 Iu%ps = ' B P!no inIur- in *0 Iu%ps = 0.+(+.
c. P!no inIur- in n Iu%ps = !)"<*0
n
G 0.+0, so n is at %ost 2*.
2.178 =e#ine the e,ents: $: person is e5pose8 to the #lu F: person .ets the #lu
Consi8er t$o e%plo-ees, one o# $ho is inoculate8 an8 one not. The pro&a&ilit- o#
interest is the pro&a&ilit- that at least one contracts the #lu. Consi8er the co%ple%ent:
P!at least one .ets the #lu = ' B P!neither e%plo-ee .ets the #lu.
For the inoculate8 e%plo-ee:
! ! ! $ F P $ F P F P + =
= .8!.+ 1 '!.) = 0.88.
For the non4inoculate8 e%plo-ee:
! ! ! $ F P $ F P F P + =
= .'!.+ 1 '!.) = 0.)+.
So, P!at least one .ets the #lu = ' B .88!.)+ = 0.*"*2
2.179 a. The .a%&lers &rea> e,en i# each $in three ti%es an8 lose three ti%es. Consi8erin. the
possi&le se9uences o# J$insK an8 JlossesK, there are

(
+
= 20 possi&le or8erin.s. Since
each has pro&a&ilit- ( )
+
2
'
, the pro&a&ilit- o# &rea>in. e,en is 20 ( )
+
2
'
= 0.('2*.
b. In or8er #or this e,ent to occur, the .a%&ler ]ones %ust ha,e M'' at trial " an8 %ust
$in on trial '0. So, in the nine re%ainin. trials, se,en J$insK an8 t$o JlossesK %ust &e
place8. So, there are

2
"
= (+ $a-s to 8o this. Co$e,er, this inclu8es cases $here
]ones $oul8 $in &e#ore the '0
th
trial. Ao$, ]ones can onl- $in the .a%e on an e,en trial
!since he %ust .ain M+. Inclu8e8 in the (+ possi&ilities, there are three $a-s ]ones coul8
$in on trial +: %%%%%%%LL, %%%%%%LL%, %%%%%%L%L, an8 there are si5
$a-s ]ones coul8 $in on trial 8: L%%%%%%%L, %L%%%%%%L, %%L%%%%%L,
%%%L%%%%L, %%%%L%%%L, %%%%%L%%L. So, these nine cases %ust &e
re%o,e8 #ro% the (+. So, the pro&a&ilit- is 2E ( )
'0
2
'
.
2.180 a. I# the patrol%an starts in the center o# the '+5'+ s9uare .ri8, there are )
8
possi&le paths
to ta>e. 3nl- #our o# these $ill result in reachin. the &oun8ar-. Since all possi&le paths
are e9uall- li>el-, the pro&a&ilit- is )<)
8
= '<)
E
.
b. 0ssu%e the patrol%an &e.ins &- $al>in. north. There are nine possi&le paths that $ill
&rin. hi% &ac> to the startin. point: NNSS, NSNS, NSSN, N$S%, N%S$, N%$S, N$%S,
Chapter 2: Probability (0
Instructors Solutions Manual
NS$%, NS%$. 2- s-%%etr-, there are nine possi&le paths #or each o# north, south, east,
an8 $est as the startin. 8irection. Thus, there are (+ paths in total that result in returnin.
to the startin. point. So, the pro&a&ilit- is (+<)
8
= "<)
E
.
2.181 /e $ill represent the n &alls as 0s an8 create the N &o5es &- placin. &ars ! R &et$een
the 0s. For e5a%ple i# there are + &alls an8 ) &o5es, the arran.e%ent
0R00RR000
represents one &all in &o5 ', t$o &alls in &o5 2, no &alls in &o5 (, an8 three &alls in &o5 ).
Aote that si5 0s $ere nee8 &ut onl- ( &ars. In .eneral, n 0s an8 N B ' &ars are nee8e8 to
represent each possi&le place%ent o# n &alls in N &o5es. Thus, there are

+
'
'
N
n N

$a-s to arran.e the 0s an8 &ars. Ao$, i# no t$o &ars are place8 ne5t to each other, no
&o5 $ill &e e%pt-. So, the N B ' &ars %ust &e place8 in the n B ' spaces &et$een the 0s.
The total nu%&er o# $a-s to 8o this is

'
'
N
n
, so that the pro&a&ilit- is as .i,en in the
pro&le%.