TECHNICAL PAPER

FOR TRAFFIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS

USING PTV VALIDATE

TECHNICAL PAPER
Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts Contents

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Contents
1 Background ........................................................................................................... 4
2 Typical steps for deriving traffic forecast ............................................................ 5
3 Alternative: Using PTV Validate ........................................................................... 6
4 Advantages of PTV Validate: Standardised and Modular ................................... 8
5 Options .................................................................................................................. 9

Background Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts

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1 Background
What is the effect on traffic flows caused by a future bypass? or what is the effectiveness
of a new highway intersection or widening of a main road? these are questions posed
by traffic planners while developing and testing their measures. The focus of traffic
planning is regularly not only to analyze the current traffic situation but to forecast future
consequences.
Empirical methods, such as extrapolation with traffic counts, are often deployed for such
traffic analysis and forecasts. But the results based on such methods give a limited or
even erroneous insight towards change. Demographical developments, which influence
the traffic demand, or infrastructures measurements, which change the traffic capacities
in the study area, can often not be taken into account by such empirical methods. Thus,
calibrated transportation models, capable of forecasts, are necessary to generate reliable
results.
Creating a communal or regional transportation model for a single analysis or project is
however an expensive and time-consuming process. To reduce the cost of building a
traffic model without compromising its quality with questionable methods, it is
advantageous to work with sub-networks from existing calibrated inter-regional model
and refine its elements for the local analysis. Such a model is PTV Validate. It has been
developed based on 10 years of experience and is constantly improved and updated. It
has been used by traffic planners for various kinds of analysis and studies.


Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts Typical steps for deriving traffic forecast

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Fig. 1: Traffic model PTV Validate Germany (with detailed cutout in the state of Baden-Wrttemberg)
The PTV Validate traffic model covers the entire Germany (see Fig. 1). It contains over
10000 traffic zones and about 3.5 Million links and is based on navigation networks from
NAVTEQ. After attributing this routing network, calibrated demand matrices are used to
calculate the traffic flows for both cars and heavy goods vehicles along the major roads
in Germany with PTV traffic planning software PTV VISUM. Furthermore, PTV
Validate.Dynamic gives the travelling speed along each link either hourly or in 15-minute
intervals. From PTV Validate, sub-networks of every required region within Germany can
be generated.
2 Typical steps for deriving traffic forecast
To create a model for a traffic analysis that includes forecast, usually the following steps
are necessary:
1. Defining optimal boundaries of the model: the region covered should be large
enough to incorporate important regional traffic influences and yet compact enough
to allow simulation.
2. Constructing of the network model, including preparation of individual link properties
and - when required - detailed node-impedances.
3. Drawing out spatial zones based on socio-demographic data and other traffic
relevant information.
4. Determining the traffic demand for each vehicle type: information about traffic
demand that are only based on traffic counts or census data are generally
insufficient to explore correlations between model parameters and future effects.
Therefore a demand modeling is necessary.
Alternative: Using PTV Validate Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts

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5. Generating the traffic flows for origin, destination and through traffic: The smaller
the model, the greater the influence of trips with origins or destinations outside the
study area. And thus the more difficult it is to estimate the correct external traffic
flow from or into the model.
6. Calibrating the model for the current status quo: The model must be calibrated such
that its traffic flow represents the current traffic situation (based on traffic counts)
and yet without penalizing its future forecasting capability.
7. Generating a forecast matrix considering external factors and with the help of the
demand model.
8. Implementing traffic measurement in question and other relevant network changes,
that are likely to be included in the forecast period/s.
9. Impact analysis, deduction of recommendations and forecast values to support the
decision about the design of the proposed future infrastructure measures.
This effort guaranties the best possible results, but usually it is far too costly for a local or
regional traffic analysis. Therefore, most forecasts use solely traffic counts, surveys or a
relatively simple traffic model which give a large degree of uncertainty and potential
errors. But such uncertainties are not acceptable considering the large sums of
investments.
An alternative would be using an existing regional traffic model. For some states and
regions such models are available. However, these models are often not regularly
updated, so the quality of the results based on such models is questionable. The
interregional traffic model PTV Validate can offer a solution here.
3 Alternative: Using PTV Validate
When there are no or only outdated regional traffic models available, PTV Validate can
be used as an alternative: Using a sub-network from the calibrated and interregional
Validate traffic model can considerably reduce the required time and effort for model
building. The traffic planner would only need to do refining works instead of starting from
the scratch.
Using PTV Validate the steps would be:
1. Defining the boundaries of the study area, thus determining a section of PTV
Validate to be used as a sub-network. This area should allow simulation of regional
traffic flows, enclosing the major links leading from and out of the core area.
2. Refining the model in the core area, especially network and zoning. PTV offers to
add the complete NAVTEQ updated network for the selected core area (Validate
module "detailed network extension", see fig. 2)
Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts Alternative: Using PTV Validate

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Fig. 2: Validate sub-network to plan a bypass for an exemplary municipality
Fig. 3 (top right): Section of Validate for the core area
Fig. 4 (bottom right): Section of Validate with detailed network extension for the core area

3. Calibrating the traffic model for analysis. The model must reflect the current state of
traffic (e.g. compared with traffic counts) without losing its forecasting capability.
4. Generating a forecast matrix considering external factors and with the help of the
demand model.
5. Implementing the traffic measurement in question and other relevant network
changes, that are likely to be realized in the forecast period.
6. Impact analysis, deduction of recommendations and forecast values to support the
decision about the design of the future infrastructure measures.

The traffic planner is relieved of many model development preparative tasks and is able
to focus on the core tasks.

Advantages of PTV Validate: Standardised and Modular Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts

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Fig. 5: Detailed section of the study area including the planned bypass with assignment results.

4 Advantages of PTV Validate: Standardised and
Modular
PTV Validate excels in its standardized method.
Network is based on up-to-date map data from a world renowned provider (NAVTEQ).
Its network properties are reproducible and transparent (link capacity, speed or CR
functions) and offers a country-wide homogenous quality.
Because of its country-wide coverage all originated, destination and through traffic
flows can be provided for every selected sub-network, including those from and into
neighboring countries.
Zones are based on official communal/regional boundaries, which facilitate integration
of external data.
Through standardization, results from Validate can be compared in terms of spatial
and time, unlike empirical traffic analysis, which are extrapolated for isolated cases
that vary in terms of detail and quality.
Moreover the traffic demand can be easily extrapolated with help of available regional
or state forecast matrices. Although the forecast matrices are generally coarsely
aggregated in regions, the Validate zoning based on official boundaries enable to
easily integrate values into the model.


Planned Bypass
exemplary municipality
Using PTV Validate for Traffic Analysis and Forecasts Options

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PTV Validate is modular, which allows flexibility for the users to choose what they need.
1. Validate Base Network with link attributes (capacities, free flow speed etc.) - for
optimizing the simulation, the network contains only major links
2. Validate Day (average daily) volumes Assignment results for car and truck for
Validate network
3. Validate Day (average daily) demand Demand matrices for car and truck
including Validate-zones connected to the network model
4. Validate detailed network extension supplement to module "Base", including the
minor links with attributes
5. Validate Dynamic Speed - Calculated travel speed with intervals from 15 minutes to
1 hour in the Validate network
6. Validate Dynamic Demand Demand matrices for car and truck in 1 hour intervals
5 Options
For conducting a traffic analysis with forecast using PTV Validate the following options
are feasible:
1. Customers can develop and analyze the model themselves. PTV is able to provide
a sub-network based on a predefined area. The forecast calculation and the refining
works are conducted by the customer.
2. PTV can integrate the spatial details and calculates the forecast matrices. The
extrapolation of the forecast matrices will be based on information from official
authorities. The scenarios and analysis will be carried by our customers.
3. PTV carries out the whole process of creating the model as well as the analysis.

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Do you need more information about PTV Validate? Please contact [email protected]