FFM Assignment
FFM Assignment
A Executive Summary
Question 4 was on Options Traded on Stock Market. Profit diagram was drawn
for a call option, call premiums were explained, straddle diagram was drawn
and explained and a comment was made on the contention that options are a
zero sum game for the writer and investor options.
1 Capital Expenditure
Decisions and Investment
Criteria : Bala Chemicals
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
The Net Cash Flows were found to be £6.05 millions (year 1), £8.52
millions (year 2), £8.52 millions (year 3), £8.52 millions (year 4) and
£10.62 millions (year 5) with an outlay of £13.85 millions at the
beginning of the project (year 0) (Table 1.2).
Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between the present value of
cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. NPV is used in
capital budgeting to analyze the profitability of an investment or project.
NPV analysis is sensitive to the reliability of future cash inflows that an
investment or project will yield. A project with positive NPV can be
accepted and with a negative NPV should be rejected (2)
The projects NPV was found to be £ 12.92 millions (Table 1.3) for the 5
years of product life and at a required rate of interest of 16%. This
positive and high NPV value should support project acceptance decision.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Investing Activities
Gross Profit Interest received 0.00 10.50 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
Original Purchase of porperty, plan and equipment -0.80
Fixed costs -0.80 -0.80 -12.20
-0.80 -0.80
Purchase of intangible assets
Fixed costs (altered) Purchase of a business
-0.80 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80 -0.80
Advertizing costs -0.60
Proceeds from sale of property, plan and equipment -0.60 -0.60 -0.60 -0.60
Advertizing and Marketing Cost Proceeds from disposal of intangible
-1.00 assets
Acquisition of subisidary
Sale of equipment 1.00
Net Cash used in Investing Activities -12.20 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sales of machinary
Operating Profit Financing Activities -1.00 9.10 12.60 12.60 12.60 13.60
Investment Income Issue of ordinary share capital
Purchase of own shares
Finance Costs Dividends paid
New Loans
Depreciation 12.00 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40 -2.40
Replayment of loans
Capital gain Increase in bank overdrafts -0.20 Page 3 of 68
Profit before Tax -1.20 6.70 10.20 10.20 10.20 11.20
Net Cash used in Financing Activities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tax -0.40 0.48 -2.68 -4.08 -4.08 -4.08 -4.48
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Excess 0.72 3
1 year 7
Payback Period (Undiscounted) 1 year + [(13.85-6.05)*12) / (8.52) months
months
Page 5 of 68
2 ye
Payback Period (Discounted Payback) 2 year + [(13.85-5.2114-6.3321)*12) / (5.4588) months
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) was found to be very high at 48.13%
(Table 1.4) demonstrating the high potential of the project as it is 3 times
the required rate of interest, 16%. This is very high IRR and indicates the
growth potential of this project. This project could be accepted bases on
its IRR
With the given high IRR, the corresponding Payback Period was low at 19
months (1 year 7 months) on undiscounted cash flows and was at 29
months (2 years 5 months) on discounted cash flows (Table 1.5). The
assumption made here was that the cash flows were distributed equally
throughout the year.
The underlying key assumptions for the above analysis were specified
and discussed below:
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
result of introducing the product will just about be offset by the increase
in creditors 14) only 25% of the unit sales expected in the subsequent
year are to he held by the company.
The following costs were not considered in NPV calculation and analysis
Page 7 of 68
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
10.00
8.00
NPV
6.00
4.00
% NPV NPV
Sensitity Parameter
2.00 Decrease Absolute Altered % Change
12.00
10.00
8.00
NPV
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 110.00%
% Increase in Direct Cost
NPV NPV
Sensitity Parameter % Increase
Absolute Altered % Change
10.00% 11.74 -9.13%
20.00% 10.57 -18.19%
30.00% 9.40 -27.24%
Direct Cost 40.00% 12.92 8.22 -36.38%
50.00% 7.05 -45.43%
60.00% 5.87 -54.57%
110.00% 0.00 -100.00%
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
12.00
10.00 T
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0.00 D
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.00 0
.00
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
12.00
10.00
8.00
NPV
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 1233.00%
% Increase in Fixed Cost
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
NPV NPV
Sensitity Parameter % Increase
Absolute Altered % Change
10.00% 12.81 -0.85%
20.00% 12.71 -1.63%
30.00% 12.60 -2.48%
Fixed Cost 40.00% 12.92 12.50 -3.25%
50.00% 12.40 -4.02%
60.00% 12.29 -4.88%
1233.00% 0.00 -100.00%
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12.00
10.00
8.00
NPV
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 1760.00%
% Increase in Working Capital
NPV NPV
Sensitity Parameter % Increase
Absolute Altered % Change
10.00% 12.84 -0.62%
20.00% 12.77 -1.16%
30.00% 12.70 -1.70%
Working Capital 40.00% 12.92 12.62 -2.32%
50.00% 12.55
Page 13 of 68 -2.86%
From the above analysis it was observed that the highest influencing
independent variable is decreasing Sales Volume (1.95%). The second
set of influencing independent variables is having just half the impact of
decreasing Sales Volume and includes increasing Direct Cost (0.92%)
and Discount Rate (0.85%). e lowest influencing set of independent
variables is increasing Fixed Cost (0.1%) and Working Capital (0.07%).
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
% NPV % NPV
Sensitity Parameter
Increase Absolute Decrease Altered % Change
Sales Volume 12.92 30.00% 2.65 -79.49%
Fixed cost 30.00%
Direct Cost 30.00%
Discount Rate
Working Capital
The graph 1.6 as presented below show the impact of all parameters on
NPV.
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G r a p h 1 .6 S e n s it iv it y A n a ly s is : I
1 4 .0 0
1 2 .0 0
1 0 .0 0
8 .0 0
6 .0 0
Absolute Change in NPV
4 .0 0
2 .0 0
0 .0 0
- 5 1 . 7 5- 4 0 -2 0 0 20 40 60
% C h a n g e in P a r a m e te r s
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S a l e s D i r e c t C oD s i st c o u n t RF iax t ee d C o Ws t o r k i n g C a p i t a l
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
2 Interpretation of Price-
Earnings Ratios
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records. Companies with high dividend payout may shoot up their share
prices, at least in the short run, while companies which did not pay
dividends for investing back in to business may still maintain their share
prices high if investor is confident about it growth and possible future
earnings. In reality, the company which paid high dividends did not have
a comparable future growth plan similar to that of the company which
retained most of the earnings. Long term and wise investors will continue
to hold stock of such companies.
Hence, a low share price may indicate either no dividends from the
company because of its poor performance or because it invested back
into business. Similarly, a high share price may indicate either high
dividends being paid either along with a real growth or no growth plan in
the company. A company which paid high dividends, hence, high share
price, may not able to sustain its position if growth plans are not in place.
Similarly, a company which did not pay dividends currently, may have a
decline or less share price (in comparison to the company paying high
dividends) for the time being but in a strong position if growth plans are
in place (with reinvestment of free cash flows) to pay dividends in future.
And also as the time passes, the present value of dividend terms
increases and the present value of the terminal price declines. Share of
established companies are held by investors for cash flows from
dividends. Such shares are also traded high
100%
75%
50%
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
There are several elements that could affect share prices; the accounting
policies, pricing methods, the impact of enterprise objectives, the effects
of competition, the influence of the prospect's perception, characteristics
of product or service, enterprise resources and environmental influences
(7), rumours of war, change in regulatory environment (business),
political climate, interest rate variations, domestic factors, global factors,
company profits, investor confidence, investor perception, supply and
demand (8). There can be many more unknown factors contributing to a
change in share price. It is a complex pattern of various dependent and
independent variables impacting on the share price.
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Sainsbury and Tesco are supermarket chains in retail trade and basically
a stable business. As a generic rule, stable businesses offer good
dividends. The PE ratio for Sainsbury was the highest (almost 3.4 times
that of Tesco).
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Return was higher than FTSE 100 index and also higher than
Sainsbury over the last 5 yeas.
\
Tesco paid increasingly every year for the last 5 years (12.05p
(2002), 13.54p (2003), 15.05p (2004), 17.72p (2005), 17.52p
(2005-1) and 20.20p (2006). Sainsbury paid (19.1p (2002), 23.7p
(2003), 20.7p (2004), 3.5p (2005), 4.1p (2005-1) and 3.8p (2006),
it was erratic.
The number of shares outstanding for Tesco was more than that of
Sainsbury.
The high TSR explains the investor confidence in Tesco; the share
price was close to Sainsbury (less only by £1.5 while the PE of
Sainsbury is more than 3.4 times). This clearly shows investor
perception of Tesco and confidence that it would certainly yield
high earnings per share in future.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
other. The Tesco is operating with a high equity and also offering
high EPS. Tesco had opted for high gearing (£3,742millions (2006)
and (£4,563millions (2005)) while Sainsbury went for a gearing of
(£2,178 millions (2006) and (£1,793millions (2005)). Low gearing
gives more confidence to investor.
Similarly, the PE ratio of Logical CMG was high 39.5% (1.4 times higher
than Dicom) although its share price was lower 158p (against 242.5p of
Dicom, less by 35%). It again shows the investor perception and
confidence in Logical CMG that it would deliver better earnings per share
in future.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
3 Monthly Returns of
Individual Securities and
construction of Portfolio and
its performance
Po
Deviati
Monthly
M
-0.0901 Page 24 of 68
Mini
0.1304 Max
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Table 3.3 (after Table 3.2 in the following pages) shows the comparison
of the above data for the chosen five individual securities with that of the
developed equally weighted portfolio. The summaries are presented
below;
Average % Change
Individual Standard % Change
Minimum Maximum Range Monthly in Monthly
Securities Deviation in SD
Returns Returns
A -0.0879 0.1777 0.2655 0.0208 0.0595 -25 -23
B -0.2104 0.2814 0.4918 0.0365 0.0939 -57 -51
C -0.1864 0.3274 0.5138 0.0081 0.0957 92 -52
D -0.2849 0.3809 0.6658 0.0120 0.1083 30 -58
E -0.1849 0.1559 0.3408 0.0005 0.0739 2,814 -38
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Table 3.3 Monthly Returns, Average Monthly Returns and Standard Deviation of Chosen 5 Securities in Comparison with the Equally Weighted Portfolio
Individual Security Returns
Selected Portfolio Return
Weighted Contribution in Portfolio
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1
A B C D E A,B,C,D and E
Sr. No. Date BP - TOT RETURN IND DSG INTERNATIONAL - TOT LONMIN - TOT RETURN IND REUTERS GROUP - TOT SAINSBURY (J) - TOT Portfolio 1
Squared Squared Squared Squared Squared
Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation Deviation S
Monthly Deviation Monthly Deviation Monthly Deviation Monthly Deviation Monthly Deviation Deviation
from from from from from Monthly D
Returns from Returns from Returns from Returns from Returns from from Mean
Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean fro
Mean Mean Mean Mean Mean
-0.0879 Minimum 0.0000 -0.2104 Minimum 0.0000 -0.1864 Minimum 0.0000 -0.2849 Minimum 0.0000 -0.1849 Minimum 0.0000 -0.0901 Minimum
0.1777 Maximum 0.0246 0.2814 Maximum 0.0610 0.3274 Maximum 0.1020 0.3809 Maximum 0.1360 0.1559 Maximum 0.0344 0.1304 Maximum
Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum
1.2460 0.2124 2.1902 0.5294 0.4858 0.5497 0.7217 0.7040 0.0321 0.3277 0.9352
Security Security Security Security Security
Security Security Security Security Security Portfolio
A B C D E P
A B C D E Average
Average Average Average Average Average A
Average Average Average Average Average Monthly
Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly V
Variance Variance Variance Variance Variance Returns
Returns Returns Returns Returns Returns
0.0208 0.0035 0.0365 0.0088 0.0081 0.0092 0.0120 0.0117 0.0005 0.0055 0.0156
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It can be seen that the Standard Deviation for the Portfolio calculated
using the relevant equation as above and calculated by step by step
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Table 3.4 Covariance and Variance of Indiviual Securities and Their Averages
Individual Securities
DSG
BP - TOT RETURN LONMIN - TOT REUTERS GROUP - SAINSBURY (J) -
INTERNATIONAL -
IND RETURN IND TOT RETURN IND TOT RETURN IND
TOT RETURN IND
Standard Deviation
A B C D E
0.0595 0.0939 0.0957 0.1083 0.0739
Individual
Covariance Between Securities
Securities
A 0.0035 0.0014 0.0020 0.0000 0.0002
B 0.0014 0.0088 0.0005 0.0037 -0.0009
C 0.0020 0.0005 0.0092 0.0004 -0.0004
D 0.0000 0.0037 0.0004 0.0117 0.0002
E 0.0002 -0.0009 -0.0004 0.0002 0.0055
Average Covariance of securities
0.0007
Variance
0.0035 0.0088 0.0092 0.0117 0.0055
Average Variance of securities
0.0077
Individual
Correlation Coefficients Between Securities
Securities
A 1.0000 0.2419 0.3588 -0.0012 0.0371
B 0.2419 1.0000 0.0546 0.3606 -0.1289
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C 0.3588 0.0546 1.0000 0.0402 -0.0631
D -0.0012 0.3606 0.0402 1.0000 0.0276
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Portfolios of 2 (Table 3.5), 4 (Table 3.6), 8 (Table 3.7), 12 (Table 3.8) and
20 (Table 3.9) were developed and presented in the following pages.
0.0600
0.0500
0.0400
0.0300
0.0200
0.0100
0.0000
2 4 8 12 20
Number of Securities in Portfolio
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
It can be seen from the above Table 3.10 and Fig 3.1, as the number of
the securities included into an equally weighted portfolio, the standard
deviation (SD) of the portfolio has decreased. As the standard deviation
of a portfolio is nothing but risk of the investment, the risk is
considerably reduced as the number of individual securities increased in
a portfolio. This is the essence of portfolio investment to reduce risk.
After certain limit, additional increase in securities may produce either
non-significant or minimal reduction in portfolio standard deviation (risk).
Such minimum risk to be faced for a given portfolio (with reasonably
good number of securities) denotes the undiversible risk. Hence,
increasing number of securities in a portfolio reduces diversiable risk.
It can be seen that along with reduction in risk (SD), the average monthly
returns also reduced as the number of individual securities increased in a
equally weighted portfolio. This might be because of a lesser contribution
of a each individual security in a portfolio with more number of securities
in comparison to a portfolio with less number of securities. A high risk
high risk individual security can affect more an equally weighted portfolio
with a few number of securities rather than the portfolio with more
number of securities.
The selection of the securities was purely at random and strictly not on
any past, present or future information about the companies, not based
on any financial understanding of their investments, decisions,
management, not based on market trends, competition and many other
factors which could either shoot up or trumpet the share prices in the
future, in the present or in the past. The selection was not even done
looking at the monthly averages. A purely random selection of such kind
can be compared with a naïve diversification, choosing securities with no
much information and expertise. Although, such naïve diversification was
used to build a portfolio, it perfectly worked out to reduce the risk that
would otherwise be faced with less number of the same securities. It
supports the age-old adage “Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket”. A
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learned decision might further reduce risk and increase earnings from a
professionally diversified portfolio.
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0.0700
Portfolio Standard Deviation (Risk)
0.0600
0.0500
0.0400
0.0300
0.0200
0.0100
0.0000
2 4 8 12 20
Number of Securities in Portfolio
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
The profit diagram for the call option with a 600p exercise price that
expires in October was given in the next page.
The X-axis represents the stock price on the expiration day and Y-axis
represents profits or losses on the expiration day. This diagram ignores
any commissions that are to be paid as part of this call option.
As the share price rises above the Exercise Price by the expiry of the call
(October in this diagram), the premium paid on this call option will be
slowly recovered by the investor. The Call Price paid (28.75p) will be
recovered when the share price is rised to 628.75p by expiry of the call
in which case the investor would just recover his cost (ignoring the
discounting factors over the period on the initial outlay) and would not
make any profit resulting in a state of Break-even.
Any further rise in share prices would start yielding profits to investor
through this option as he should otherwise end up paying a higher price
to acquire the same asset if he were not exercising this option. As seen
in the diagram, the potential profit line is at 450 to X-axis, showing a
strong relationship of Profits to Increasing Share Prices. It can be seen
that for every 1p increase in the share price from Exercise Price the
corresponding profit is also increased by 1p. For example, as shown in
the diagram, when the share price rises to 700p from the exercise price
of 600p (an increase of 100p) by the maturity of call then the profit for
investor would rise from -28.75p (at Exercise Price) to 71.25p (an
increase of 100p). These profits can be realized once the investor
exercises this option and sells the shares in the shares in the market at
the prevailing rates as shown in the diagram.
The call price denotes the maximum possible loss from this call. The
investor may opt to get the option expired if the share price is
trumpeting below 600p end of October thus minimising his ‘downside’
risk to a maximum of 28.75p per share (the call price). Thus, Share Prices
below the Exercise Price were not shown many in the diagram as they
have no greater impact on the loss beyond the share price.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
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Chart 1. Profit diagram for a call option of 600 pence exercise price
expiring in October on Marks & Spencer's Shares
Profit of 71.25p
when share
80 Exercise Price Break-even price is 700p
600p Price 628.75p
70
60
50
40
30
Profit / Loss
20
10
0
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700
-10
Call Price / Premium
-20
28.75 p
-30
-40
Share Price (pence)
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The straddle diagram using calls (9.75p) and puts (40.5p) expiring in
November at an exercise price of 650p is drawn and presented in the
next page.
It was seen that when the straddle was opted at a total premium of
50.25p at a strike price of 650p, the break-even points were found on
either side of share movements (at 599.75p on the downside and at
700.25p on the upward)
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Chart 2. Straddle with calls and puts expiring in November at an exercise price of
650p for Marks & Spencer's Shares
80
Puts Calls
60
40
Profit of 19.75p when share Payoff / Share Value Profit of 19.75p when shar
price is either 580p or 720p at the expiry of straddle price is either 580p or 720
Profit / Loss
20
Strike Price
Break-even 600p Break-even
Price 599.75p Price 700.25p
0
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700 710 72
-20
Profit / Loss
-40
Call and Put Price / Premium 50.25p
-60
Share Price (pence) Page 61 of 68
Finance and Financial Management Assignment
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Zero Sum Game means a situation in which total gains equal total losses.
The following diagram shows the Zero Sum Game in detail. It shows the
four basic options positions, namely the call option (long and short) and
the put option (again long and short). The net position of all these four
positions is a Zero Sum Game.
The aggregate gains and losses will always net to zero. The most an
option writer can make is the option premium which is paid by the option
holder. Since the premium is paid by option holder and received by
option writer, the break-even point occurs at the same share price point.
A potential gain realized by option holder by end of the option maturity is
just equal to the loss of born by the option writer for the altered share
price.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Chart 3. Options are a Zero Sum game for the writer and investor in options
100
Profit of 80p when share
price is 700p to call holder
80
Profit of 40p
when share
60 price is 580p Exercise Price Break-even
to put holder 600p Price 620p
40
Call Price / Premium 20p received by call writer Put Price / Premium 20p received by put writer
20
Profit / Loss
0
580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 660 670 680 690 700
-20
Call Price / Premium 20p paid by call holder Put Price / Premium 20p paid by put holder
-40
Loss of 40p
when share
-60
price is 580p
to put writer
-80
Loss of 80p when share price
is 700p to call writer
-100
Share Price (pence)
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Having described the above exceptions, still this Zero Sum Game holds
true to some extent and especially when the market is not perturbed by
unprecedented and unpredicted rises and falls.
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
5 References
1 http://cyllene.uwa.edu.au/~dpannell/dp0405.htm
2 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/npv.asp
3 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irr.asp
4 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/paybackperiod.asp
5 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sensitivityanalysis.asp
6 http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~kjohn/courses/session01.ppt#270,6,Valuing
an Office Building
7 http://www.businessplans.org/Pricing.html
8 http://www.moneybiz.co.za/personal_finance/jse_6.asp
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
6 Appendix
Appendix
Financial Statements of Tesco
I
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Finance and Financial Management Assignment
Appendix
Financial Statements of Sainsbury
II
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