Chapter11-UnderstandingRandomness

Name___________________________________
MULTIPLECHOICE.Choosetheonealternativethatbestcompletesthestatementoranswersthequestion.
Provideanappropriateresponse.
1) Computersgeneratepseudorandomnumbers.Canthesenumbersbeusedasrandomnumbers?
Whyorwhynot?
A) No.Onlytrulyrandomnumberscanbeusedinstatistics.
B) Yes,solongastheprogramthatgeneratesthemdoesnotallowtherepetitionofnumbersin
back-to-backsequence.
C) Yes,solongastheprogramthatgeneratesthemensuresthatalloftheprospectivenumbers
areeventuallyused.
D) No,becausetheyaregeneratedinafixedsequence.
E) Yes.Theyarevirtuallyindistinguishablefromtrulyrandomnumbers.
1)
2) Whatistheminimumnumberoftimesthatanordinarydeckofplayingcardsmustbeshuffledto
makethedeckrandom?
A) 2
B) 8
C) 1
D) 7
E) Itcannotbemaderandom.
2)
3) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentusesarandomnumberfrom5to13tosimulatethe
shoesizesofapopulationoffemales.
A) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Itwillpredicttoomanysmallsizesandtoo
manylargesizes.Extremesinfootsizearenotallthatcommon.
B) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
C) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Somefemaleshavefootsizesthatfall
outsideoftherange.
D) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Toaccuratelymodelthepopulation,the
simulationshouldalsoaccountforthefootwidth.
E) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Theshoessizeofaparticularfemaleis
unpredictableandcannotbemodeled.
3)
4) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentusesarandomnumberfrom1to13tosimulatethe
valueofacarddrawnatrandomfromastandarddeckofplayingcards.
A) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
B) Thesimulationmightnotmodeltherealsituation.Thedeckmaynotbeshuffled,inwhich
casetherealsituationmaynotberandom.
C) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Thesimulationmustalsoaccountforthe
cardssuit.
D) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Inreality,therearelessfacecardsthan
cardswithnumbers.
E) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Thesimulationshoulduserandomnumbers
from1to12.
4)
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5) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentsimulatestheoutcomeofabasketballplayers
3-pointshotbyletting0=missedshotand1=madeshot.
A) Thesimulationprobablywillnotmodeltherealsituation.Theshootersaccuracyonagiven
daymightbeaffectedbyaninjuryorillness.
B) Thesimulationcannotmodeltherealsituation.Shootingaccuracyvariesfromdaytoday,so
therealsituationisinherentlyunpredictable.
C) Thesimulationprobablywillnotmodeltherealsituation.Thesimulationassumesthatthe
playermakes50%ofhis3-pointshots,whichisprobablyunrealistic.
D) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Thesimulationfailstoaccountforthetype
ofdefenseemployedbytheopposingteam.
E) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
5)
6) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentsimulatesmathtestscoresbychoosingarandom
numberbetween0and100.
A) Thesimulationcannotmodeltherealsituation.Thetestperformanceofanindividual
studentisinherentlyunpredictable.
B) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
C) Thesimulationprobablywillnotmodeltherealsituation.Forexample,thesimulationwill
predictjustasmanyscoresbetween10and20asbetween70and80.Inreality,the
distributionofgradeswillnotbesouniform.
D) Thesimulationwillnotmodeltherealsituation.Itfailstoaccountfortheamountoftime
eachstudentspentstudyingfortheexam.
E) Thesimulationprobablywillnotmodeltherealsituation.Moststudentsdislikemath.
6)
7) Astatisticsstudentproperlysimulatedthenumberofstudentsatherhighschoolwhohavetheflu.
Shethenreported,Thenumberofstudentsatthisschoolwiththefluis 40.Whatswrongwith
thisconclusion?
A) Theconclusionshouldindicatethatthesimulationsuggeststhatthereare40studentsatthe
schoolwhohavetheflu.Actualresultsmightnotmatchthesimulatedresultsexactly.
B) Theconclusionisnotvalidbecausetheoutcomesinthesimulationarenotequallylikely.
C) Theconclusionshouldindicatethenumberoftrialsusedinthesimulation.
D) Theconclusionisnotvalidbecauserandomnumberscannotbeusedtoaccuratelymodelthe
outcomechances.
E) Nothingiswrongwiththisconclusion.
7)
8) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
thenextelection.Amemberofthereferendumcommitteeisconfidentthatthequestionwillhave
about52%ofthevotescastintheschooldistrict.But,youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
showupatthepollssincethisisanoff-yearelection.Howoftenwillthereferendumquestion
lose?Tofindout,yousetupasimulation.Describehowyouwillsimulateacomponentandits
outcomes.
A) Thecomponentisonevotervoting.Anoutcomeisavoteyesornoforthereferendum.Use
threerandomdigits,giving000-520ayesvoteand521-999anovote.
B) Thecomponentisonevotervoting.Anoutcomeisavoteyesforthereferendum.Usethree
randomdigits,giving000-599ayesvoteand600-999anovote.
C) Thecomponentisonehundredvotersvoting.Anoutcomeisavoteyesornoforthe
referendum.Useonerandomdigit,giving0-5ayesvoteand6-9anovote.
D) Thecomponentisonevotervoting.Anoutcomeisavotenoforthereferendum.Usethree
randomdigits,giving000-520ayesvoteand521-999anovote.
E) Thecomponentistenvotersvoting.Anoutcomeisavoteyesornoforthereferendum.Use
tworandomdigits,giving00-52ayesvoteand53-99anovote.
8)
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9) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
thenextelection.Amemberofthereferendumcommitteeisconfidentthatthequestionwillhave
about52%ofthevotescastintheschooldistrict.But,youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
showupatthepollssincethisisanoff-yearelection.Howoftenwillthereferendumquestion
lose?Tofindout,yousetupasimulation.Describehowyouwillsimulateatrial.
A) Atrialis10votes.Examine101-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeoplevoted
yesandhowmanyvotednoforthereferendum.Whichevergetsthemajorityofvoteswins
thattrial.
B) Atrialis1,000votes.Examine1,0003-digitrandomnumbersandonlycounthowmany
peoplevotedyesforthereferendum.Thatnumberwinsthattrial.
C) Atrialis100votes.Examine1,0002-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeople
votednoforthereferendum.Thatnumberwinsthattrial.
D) Atrialis100votes.Examine1002-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeoplevoted
yesandhowmanyvotednoforthereferendum.Whichevergetsthemajorityofvoteswins
thattrial.
E) Atrialis1,000votes.Examine1,0003-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeople
votedyesandhowmanyvotednoforthereferendum.Whichevergetsthemajorityofvotes
winsthattrial.
9)
10) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
thenextelection.Amemberofthereferendumcommitteeisconfidentthatthequestionwillhave
about52%ofthevotescastintheschooldistrict.But,youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
showupatthepollssincethisisanoff-yearelection.Howoftenwillthereferendumquestion
lose?Tofindout,yousetupasimulation.Describetheresponsevariable.
A) Theresponsevariableisthenumberofvotesforreferendumthatareno.
B) Theresponsevariableisthenumberofvotesforreferendumthatareyes.
C) Theresponsevariableistheyesornovoteofonerandomvoter.
D) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthereferendumlosesornot.
E) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthereferendumwinsornot.
10)
3
11) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?Aroyalflushisthefivehighestcardsofasinglesuit.Afullhouseisthreeofone
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,youcannotpickthatsamecardagain.Describehowyouwillsimulateacomponentand
itsoutcomes.
A) Thecomponentispickingasinglecard.Anoutcomeisthedenominationofthecard.You
couldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduse
asingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9for
suits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
B) Thecomponentispickingfivecards.Anoutcomeisthesuitanddenominationofthecards.
Youcouldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucould
useasingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,
5-9forsuits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
C) Thecomponentispickingasinglecard.Anoutcomeisthesuitanddenominationofthecard.
Youcouldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucould
useasingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,
5-9forsuits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
D) Thecomponentispickingfivecards.Anoutcomeisthedenominationofthecards.You
couldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduse
asingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9for
suits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
E) Thecomponentispickingasinglecard.Anoutcomeisthesuitofthecard.Youcouldusethe
digits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduseasingledigit
1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9forsuits,and00,
14-99fordenominations).
11)
12) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?Aroyalflushisthefivehighestcardsofasinglesuit.Afullhouseisthreeofone
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,youcannotpickthatsamecardagain.Describehowyouwillsimulateatrial.
A) Atrialisasinglefive-cardhand.Usefivesetsofrandomnumbers,ignoringrepeatedcards.
B) Atrialisasinglefive-cardhand.Usefivesetsofrandomnumbers.
C) Atrialisasinglecard.Userandomnumbers,ignoringrepeatedcards.
D) Atrialisfive-cardhands,dealtuntilthedeckiscompletelydealt.Usefivesetsofrandom
numbers,ignoringrepeatedcards.
E) Atrialisasinglefive-cardhand.Useonesetofrandomnumbers,ignoringrepeatedcards.
12)
13) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?Aroyalflushisthefivehighestcardsofasinglesuit.Afullhouseisthreeofone
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,youcannotpickthatsamecardagain.Describetheresponsevariable.
A) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflush.
B) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadafullhouse.
C) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflush,afullhouse,orneither.
D) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaneitheraroyalflushnorafullhouse.
E) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflushorafullhouse.
13)
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Solvetheproblem.
14) Foreachtimeupatbat,abaseballplayerhasa70%chanceofmakinganout,a10%chanceof
gettingwalked,anda20%chanceofgettingahit.Estimatetheprobabilitythat,outof5at -bats,
theplayergetsatleastonehit.Use30simulationruns.
A) About20%
B) About70%
C) About30%
D) 100%
E) About90%
14)
15) Foraparticularminiaturegolfhole,thechanceofgettingahole-in-oneisonly18%.Thechanceof
sinkinganysubsequentputtis50%.Estimatetheaveragenumberofputtsforthishole.Use30
runsinyoursimulation.
A) About4.5putts
B) About4.0putts
C) About1.5putts
D) About3.5putts
E) About2.5putts
15)
16) Inordertoillustratethebasiceconomicandpsychologicaldynamicsinvolvedinpurchasinglife
insurance,onecancreateaverysimplegamewithasack,oneblackmarble,andthreewhite
marbles.Inthisgame,thefourmarblesareplacedinthesack,andtheplayermustpaya
premiumof$5foreachdrawhemakesfromthesack.Thepreviously-drawnmarblesarenot
returnedtothesack.So,ifhekeepsplaying,theplayerisguaranteedtowinthe$12award
eventually(butatwhatcost?!).Useasimulationtopredicttheaveragecosttowinthe$12
assumingtheplayercontinuesplayinguntilhegetstheblackmarble.Use30simulationruns,
lettingarandomnumbergivethenumberofdrawstoobtaintheblackmarbleonaparticularrun.
A) About$17.00
B) About$12.50
C) About$15.50
D) About$20.50
E) About$5.00
16)
Provideanappropriateresponse.
17) Youtakeasurprisequizinyourastronomyclasswith12 multiple-choicequestions.Youestimated
thatyouwouldhaveabouta30%chanceofgettinganyindividualquestioncorrect.Whatareyour
chancesofgettingthemallright?Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast20runs.
A) 2.1074359
B) 1728
C) 0.00000053
D) 3.6
E) 36
17)
18) YouareplanningtotakethetesttobecertifiedtoadministerCPR.Yourteacherhastoldyouthat
only30%ofcandidatespassthetestthefirsttime.Thepercentagewhopassrisesto 44%on
subsequentretests.Estimatethepercentageofthosetestedwhostillarenotcertifiedaftertwo
attempts.Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast20runs.
A) 5.8% B) 0.74% C) 70% D) 13% E) 74%
18)
5
19) ApersonwithtypeO-negativebloodcandonatebloodtoanyonewhoneedsit,regardlessof
bloodtype.About6%oftheU.S.populationhastypeO-negativeblood.Yourworkplaceis
hostingablooddrivethisafternoon.Howmanypotentialdonorsdoyouexpecttheywillhaveto
examineinordertoget3unitsoftypeO-negativeblood?
A) 0.18people
B) 50people
C) 18people
D) 729people
E) 216people
19)
20) Asurprisequizwasgivenyesterdayinyourbiologyclasswith9 multiplechoicequestions.A
classmatewhotookitclaimedtohaveguessedoneveryquestion,butgotthemallcorrect.Each
questionhad5possibleanswers.Shouldyoubelievehim?Explain,basingyourargumentona
simulationinvolvingatleast10runs.
A) No,thepossibilityofthathappeningisverysmall,about 1.55184557.
B) No,thepossibilityofthathappeningisverysmall,about 0.00000051.
C) Yes,itispossible.
D) Yes,itislikely.
E) Itishardtotell.Thesimulationwouldneedtohavemorethan10runs.
20)
21) Fivemenandthreewomenarewaitingtobeinterviewedforjobs.Iftheyareallselectedin
randomorder,findtheprobabilitythatallthewomenwillbeinterviewedfirst.Yoursimulation
shoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
3
56
B)
1
60
C)
6
56
D)
1
56
E)
9
20
21)
22) Fivemenandthreewomenarewaitingtobeinterviewedforjobs.Iftheyareallselectedin
randomorder,findtheprobabilitythatthefirstpersoninterviewedwillbeawoman.Your
simulationshoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
1
8
B) 0 C) 1 D)
3
8
E)
5
8
22)
23) Sixmenandthreewomenarewaitingtobeinterviewedforjobs.Iftheyareallselectedinrandom
order,findtheprobabilitythatthelastpersoninterviewedwillbeaman.Yoursimulationshould
useatleast10runs.
A)
1
3
B)
1
9
C) 0 D)
5
9
E) 1
23)
24) WhatistheprobabilitythatJenniferwillhavetwosonsoutofherthreechildren?Assumethatboy
andgirlbabiesareequallylikely.Disregardthelikelihoodthattherearemoremalebirthsandthat
thereisahigherinfantmortalityrateforboys.Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
5
8
B)
1
8
C)
1
2
D)
3
8
E)
1
4
24)
6
25) AuniversityinyourregionestimatesthatverbalGREscoresofstudentswhoapplyforadmission
tograduateschoolcanbedescribedbyaNormalmodelwithameanof550andastandard
deviationof80.Thestaffinadmissionsopentheapplicationenvelopesatrandomlookingfor10
applicantswithGREscoresover600.Howmanyenvelopesdoyouthinkthestaffwillneedto
open?
A) About20envelopes
B) About38envelopes
C) About30envelopes
D) About14envelopes
E) About10envelopes
25)
26) ThelengthsoflongdistancephonecallsplacedonacellphonecanbedescribedbyaNormal
modelwithameanof7minutesandastandarddeviationof2minutes.Ifonecallisrandomly
selectedfromwirelessphonecompanyrecords,whatistheprobabilitythatitwillhavelasted
morethan11minutes?
A) 0.977 B) 0.23 C) 0.023 D) 0.0977 E) 0.98
26)
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AnswerKey
Testname:CHAPTER11UNDERSTANDINGRANDOMNESS
1) E
2) D
3) A
4) A
5) C
6) C
7) A
8) A
9) E
10) D
11) C
12) A
13) C
14) B
15) E
16) B
17) C
18) A
19) B
20) B
21) D
22) D
23) D
24) D
25) B
26) C
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