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Graphical Model Operis v3

This document summarizes the assumptions and results of a financial model for a highway PPP project. The key assumptions include a 50-year concession period, construction costs of $170 million, and an annual traffic growth rate of 5%. The financial structure consists of 30% equity and 40% debt. The model results show minimum coverage ratios are met and project/equity IRRs of 13.02%/23.12% respectively, indicating financial viability. Total discounted tax and fee revenues to public authorities are $446 million.

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Abhishek Singh
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
113 views

Graphical Model Operis v3

This document summarizes the assumptions and results of a financial model for a highway PPP project. The key assumptions include a 50-year concession period, construction costs of $170 million, and an annual traffic growth rate of 5%. The financial structure consists of 30% equity and 40% debt. The model results show minimum coverage ratios are met and project/equity IRRs of 13.02%/23.12% respectively, indicating financial viability. Total discounted tax and fee revenues to public authorities are $446 million.

Uploaded by

Abhishek Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Summary of project assumptions

Source of funds Construction costs (VAT excluded, indexed on inflation)


Subsidies 30% Duration of works (years) 4 years
Equity 30% Year % Amount (MUSD)
Credit 40%
Nominal interest rate 6.0% 1 5% 9
Repayment period 20 years 2 35% 60
Grace period 4 years 3 50% 85
Capitalization 4 years 4 10% 17
0%
Total in MUSD 170.00
Amortization 46 years
Traffic and Tariff Operation costs (indexed on inflation)
Initial traffic 20.6 1000 vehicles/day Fixed part 1,000 kUSD per year
Traffic growth 5% per year Variable part 0.1 USD per veh.
Toll rate (VAT included) 3.7 USD per vehicle
(VAT excluded) 3.1 USD per vehicle Economic
(indexed on inflation) Inflation rate 4.0%
Initial daily revenue 63.7 kUSD / day Corporate tax rate 30%
(VAT excluded) VAT rate 19.6%
State discount rate (real terms) 4.0%
(nominal terms) 8.16%
Repayment of loan
Graphical Model for Financial Simulation of Highway PPP Projects
Project IRR
(real/year50)
Equity IRR
(real/year50)
ADSCR
(min)
LLCR
(min)
PV (VAT +
Tax-Subsidies)
19.6%
Corporate
tax rate
30.0% 3.7
Inflation
rate
Debt maturity
4.0%
Interest
Rate
20 4 6.0% 5.0%
Construct.
cost
Operation
Cost
Equity Investment
Subsidies
Initial Daily
Traffic
Traffic
Growth
Toll rate
VAT incl.
Grace
Period
VAT
rate
50 170,000 1,000 30% 30% 20.6

446,027
Concession
life
13.02% 23.12% 4.66 2.79
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
All figures in kUSD
Revenues
Shareholders account
Dividends
Principal

Interests
Taxes
Operating costs
Equity
Debt
Interest during
construction
Subsidies

COMMENTS:
Project IRR
(real/year50)
Equity IRR
(real/year50)
ADSCR
(min)
LLCR
(min)
PV (VAT +
Tax-Subsidies)
19.6% 20 6.0% 4 4.0% 30.0% 5.0% 3.7 30% 30% 50 170,000 1,000 20.6
Concession
life
Construct.
cost
Operation
Cost
Initial Daily
Traffic
Traffic
Growth
Corporate
tax rate
Debt maturity
Equity VAT
rate
Interest
Rate
Grace
Period
Inflation
rate

446,027 13.02% 23.12% 4.66 2.79
Toll rate
VAT incl.
Investment
Subsidies
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Principal
Interests
ADSCR
LLCR
Limit
All figures in kUSD
COMMENTS:
Project IRR
(real/year50)
Equity IRR
(real/year50)
ADSCR
(min)
LLCR
(min)
PV (VAT +
Tax-Subsidies)
30.0% 19.6% 20 6.0% 4 4.0% 5.0% 3.7 30% 30% 50 170,000 1,000 20.6
446,027 13.02% 23.12% 4.66 2.79
Traffic
Growth
Toll rate
VAT incl.
Investment
Subsidies
Inflation
rate
Equity
Debt maturity
Interest
Rate
Grace
Period
Concession
life
Construct.
cost
Operation
Cost
Initial Daily
Traffic
VAT
rate
Corporate
tax rate

-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
Dividends
Equity
project IRR (real)
equity IRR (real)
All figures in kUSD
COMMENTS:
Summary of Assumptions and Results
GENERAL TOLL AND TRAFFIC
Concession life 50 years Toll, VAT included 3.7 USD per vehicle
Construction Period 4 years Initial traffic 20,600 vehicles / day
Construction costs 170,000 kUSD Traffic growth 5.0%
Amortization 46 years
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE OPERATING COSTS
Subsidy 30% of the construction costs Fixed part 1,000 kUSD per year
Equity 30% of the construction costs Variable part 0.1 USD per vehicle
Debt
Maturity 20 years OTHER KEY PARAMETERS
Interest rate 6.0% Inflation rate 4.0%
Grace period 4 years Corporate tax 30.0%
Repayment of loan P+I constant VAT rate 19.6%
FINANCING PLAN
Uses (in kUSD) 197,297 Sources (in kUSD) 197,297
Construction costs (nominal terms) 188,696 Investment subsidy 56,609
Capitalised Interests 8,601 Equity 56,609
Debt 84,079
FINANCIAL RATIOS SHAREHOLDERS' RETURN
Minimum ADSCR (Annual Debt Service Coverage Ratio) 2.79 Project IRR after tax (real terms) 13.02%
Minimum LLCR (Loan Life Coverage Ratio) 4.66 Project IRR after tax (nominal terms) 17.54%
Minimum PLCR (Project Life Coverage Ratio) 21.34 Equity IRR (real terms) 23.12%
Equity IRR (nominal terms) 28.05%
PUBLIC AUTHORITIES' FINANCIAL FLOWS
PV on Subsidy (kUSD) -45,984
PV on the VAT (kUSD) 215,519
PV on the Coporate Taxes (kUSD) 276,492
PV on the State revenues (kUSD) 446,027
SUMMARY OF THE MAIN ASSUMPTIONS
SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS

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