ResultsofSurveyUSAElectionPoll#21915

GeographySurveyed:Colorado
DataCollected:10/27/201410/29/2014
ReleaseDate:10/30/201405:05ET
Sponsor:DenverPost,DenverCO

GivenThatThisIsCO'sFirstEverAllU.S.MailElection,andGiven2Close
Contests,APollster'sBestAdviceisto'HoldYourBreath':
SurveyUSAoffershereitsfinalresearchresultsinthehighprofilecontestsforUSSenatorand
GovernorofColorado.Butwith26separatepublicopinionpollingfirmsworkingonthecontest,all
tryingtogetthesetworacesright,andno2pollstersinagreement,circumspectionisinorder.In
pollingconductedexclusivelyfortheDenverPost,SurveyUSAfinds:
*ForUSSenate:RepublicanchallengerCory
Gardner46%,DemocraticincumbentMarkUdall44%.
*ForGovernor:incumbentDemocratJohnHickenlooper46%,RepublicanchallengerBob
Beauprez46%.
TheSenateresultsareunchangedfromaSurveyUSADenverPostPoll10/13/14,whenGardneralso
ledby2points.Then7%wereundecided.Today,5%areundecided.
2previousSurveyUSApollsfortheDenverPosthadnominallybetternewsforHickenlooper:On
09/11/14,Hickenlooperledby2.On10/13/14,Hickenlooperledby1.Today,tied.Andwhenallthe
votesarecountedonTuesday?Jumpball.
IfGardnerdoesinfactholdonand"takesaway"theSenateseatfromtheDemocrats,itwillbe
becausehismessageresonatedwithmiddleagedvoters,age35to64.Amongthose35to49,
Gardnerleadsby19points.Amongthose50to64,Gardnerleadsby8points.Amongseniors,the
contestistied,48%each.AGardnerwinmeansthatGardnerdidinfactkeepindependentvotersin
hiscolumn.Heleadstodayamongindependentsbyjustenoughtocarrythestate,43%to36%.A
GardnerwinmeansthatvotersturnedoutoutsideofGreaterDenverinsufficientnumberstoovercome
Udall'sthin,5pointleadinGreaterDenver.Gardnerleadsby12pointseverywhereelseinCOoutside
ofGreaterDenver.
IfUdallupsetsGardnerandholdstheseat,whichhemay,itwillbebecauseyoungervotersshowed
upingreaternumbersthanshownhere.Udallleadsamongvotersage18to34by33points.And,a
Udallwinwouldmeanthatwomenvotedinlargernumbersthanshownhere.Udallleadsby6points
amongwomen,which,byitself,isnotenoughtooffsetGardnerwholeadsby12amongmen.AUdall
winwillmeanthatHispanicColoradansvotedmoreDemocraticallythanshownhere.AUdallwin
meansthatliberalswillaccountformorethan21%oftheelectorate,andthatUdallwillhavecarried
moderatesbymorethanthe15percentagepointsshownhere.AndaUdallwinmeansthat
lowerincomevoterswillhavevotedinlargernumbersthanshownhere.
Asplitdecisionispossible,andHickenloopermaybereturnedtoofficewhileUdallisthrownout.
Hickenlooperhasrun2or3pointsstrongerthanUdallinthemostrecent2polls.IfHickenlooperwins,
hewillhaveovercomeanearlyvoteadvantagethatBeauprezhas.
OfthoserespondentswhotellSurveyUSAtheyhavereturnedaballot:Gardnerleadsby3
points,Beauprezleadsby2points.IfDemocratsfailtoreturnthestilloutstandingballotsinthe
numbersforecasthere,Republicanswilloutperformthesepollresults.
*IntheelectionforAttorneyGeneral,RepublicanCynthiaCoffmanedgesDemocratDonQuick45%to
38%.
*IntheelectionforSecretaryofState,RepublicanWayneWWilliamsedgesDemocratJoeNeguse
43%to39%.
*IntheelectionforTreasurer,incumbentRepublicanWalkerStapletonedgesDemocratBetsyMarkey
46%to41%.
*Downballot,lowprofilecontestsarenotoriouslydifficulttoforecast.
*Iftheseresultshold,andifBeaupreziselectedGovernor,Republicanswillhave"runthetable"in
CO.
*OnAmendment67,whichwouldprotecttheunbornbydefiningthemtobehumanbeings,"No"
leads"Yes"54%to32%.Almostcertaindefeat.
*OnAmendment68,whichwouldallowcasinostylegamblingathorseracingtracks,"No"leads
"Yes"2:1.Certaindefeat.
*OnProposition104,whichwouldopentothepublicbargainingsessionsbetweenschoolboardsand
teachersunions,"Yes"defeats"No"61%to24%.
*OnProposition105,whichwouldlabelcertainfoodsasgeneticallyengineered,"No"leads"Yes"
59%to34%.

Coloradovotersreactpositivelytothestate'snewallU.S.mailelectionlaw.65%seethenewlawas
astepintherightdirection,24%seeitasastepinthewrongdirection.Voterfraud?Noconsensus.
Aplurality,33%,saythatvotinginpersonataprecinctwillhavelessfraudthanvotingbymail.31%
saytherewillbefraudnomatterhowyouvote.25%saytherewillbealmostnofraud,regardlessof
howaballotiscast.And8%saythatvotebyUSmailwillresultinlessfraudthanvotingatthe
precinct.
Cellphonerespondentsandhomephonerespondentswereincludedinthisresearch:
SurveyUSAinterviewed700stateofColoradoadults10/xx/14through10/29/14.Oftheadults,648
wereregisteredtovote.Oftheregisteredvoters,618weredeterminedbySurveyUSAtohavealready
returnedaballotinthisfirsteverallU.S.mailelection,ortobelikelytodosobeforethedeadline.
Countingbeginson11/04/14.Thisresearchwasconductedusingblendedsample,mixedmode.
Respondentsreachableonahometelephone(71%oflikelyvoters)wereinterviewedontheirhome
telephoneintherecordedvoiceofaprofessionalannouncer.Respondentsnotreachableonahome
telephone(29%oflikelyvoters)wereshownasurveyontheirsmartphone,tablet,orotherelectronic
device.

1
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

IntheelectionforGovernorofColorado,howdoyouvote?(candidatenamesrotated)

46% BobBeauprez(R)
46% JohnHickenlooper(D)
2% MatthewHess(L)
1% HarryHempy(G)
1% MikeDunafon(Unaffil)
4% NotCertain

2
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

IntheelectionfortheUnitedStatesSenate,howdoyouvote?(candidatenamesrotated)Republican
CoryGardner?DemocratMarkUdall?LibertarianGaylonKent?OrunaffiliatedcandidateSteve
Shogan?

46% CoryGardner(R)
44% MarkUdall(D)
2% GaylonKent(L)
3% SteveShogan(Unaffil)
5% NotCertain

3
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

IntheelectionforColoradoAttorneyGeneral,howdoyouvote?(candidatenamesrotated)Republican
CynthiaCoffman?DemocratDonQuick?OrLibertarianDavidK.Williams?

45% CynthiaCoffman(R)
38% DonQuick(D)
6% DavidK.Williams(L)
11% NotCertain

4
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

IntheelectionforColoradoSecretaryofState,howdoyouvote?(candidatenamesrotated)
RepublicanWayneW.Williams?DemocratJoeNeguse?OrLibertarianDaveSchambach?

43% WayneW.Williams(R)
39% JoeNeguse(D)
7% DaveSchambach(L)
11% NotCertain

5
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

IntheelectionforColoradoTreasurer,howdoyouvote?(candidatenamesrotated)RepublicanWalker
Stapleton?DemocratBetsyMarkey?OrLibertarianDavidJurist?

46% WalkerStapleton(R)
41% BetsyMarkey(D)
5% DavidJurist(L)
8% NotCertain

6
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

AlsoontheNovemberballotareseveralconstitutionalamendmentsandballotmeasures.Amendment
67isanamendmenttotheColoradoconstitutionprotectingpregnantwomenandunbornchildrenby
defining"person"and"child"intheColoradocriminalcodeandtheColoradowrongfuldeathactto
includeunbornhumanbeings.OnAmendment67,doyouvoteYes?DoyouvoteNo?Or,Areyounot
certainhowyouvoteonAmendment67?

32% VoteYes
54% VoteNo
14% NotCertain

7
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=3.9%

Amendment68wouldallowcasinostylegamblingathorseracingtrackstoraisemoneyforpublic
education.OnAmendment68,doyouvoteYes?DoyouvoteNo?Or,Areyounotcertainhowyou
voteonAmendment68?

32% VoteYes
63% VoteNo
5% NotCertain

8
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=3.9%

Proposition104wouldrequirecollectivebargainingmeetingsbetweeneducationboardsandteachers'
unionstobeopentothepublic.OnProposition104,doyouvoteYes?DoyouvoteNo?Or,Areyou
notcertainhowyouvoteonProposition104?

61% VoteYes
24% VoteNo
15% NotCertain

9
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

Proposition105wouldrequiresomefoodsthatcontaingeneticallymodifiedingredientstobelabeled.
OnProposition105,doyouvoteYes?DoyouvoteNo?Or,Areyounotcertainhowyouvoteon
Proposition105?

34% VoteYes
59% VoteNo
8% NotCertain

10
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=3.8%

IsColorado'snewelectionlaw,whereeveryregisteredvoterisautomaticallymailedaballot,astepin
therightdirection?Orastepinthewrongdirection?

65% RightDirection
24% WrongDirection
11% NotSure

11
Askedof618likely&actualvoters
MarginofSamplingErrorforthisquestion=4%

WhichstatementbestdescribeshowyoufeelaboutElectionfraud?Votinginpersonhaslessfraud
thanvotingbymail?Votingbymailhaslessfraudthanvotinginperson?Therewillbealmostnofraud
regardlessofhowvotesarecast?OrTherewillbeaproblemwithfraudregardlessofhowvotesare
cast?

33% VotingInPersonHasLessFraud
8% VotingByMailHasLessFraud
25% AlmostNoFraudRegardless
31% ProblemWithFraudRegardless
3% NotSure

x CompleteInteractiveCrosstabs
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StatementofMethodology
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2014SurveyUSA/ContractualObligations