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Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability and provides examples of calculating conditional probability using formulas and Venn diagrams. It defines conditional probability as the probability of an event B occurring given that event A has already occurred. The formula for conditional probability is given as P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A). Several word problems are worked out as examples applying this formula and using Venn diagrams to visually represent the probability relationships between events.

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Vikas Dusa
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237 views

Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability and provides examples of calculating conditional probability using formulas and Venn diagrams. It defines conditional probability as the probability of an event B occurring given that event A has already occurred. The formula for conditional probability is given as P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A). Several word problems are worked out as examples applying this formula and using Venn diagrams to visually represent the probability relationships between events.

Uploaded by

Vikas Dusa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conditional Probability

Now we can use this formula to solve the problem at the top of the page.
Problem:

Solution:

A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class
passed both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test.
What percent of those who passed the first test also passed the
second test?
P(Second|
First)

P(First and Second)


0.25
=
= 0.60 = 60%
P(First)
0.42

Let's look at some other problems in which we are asked to find a conditional probability.
Example 1:

Solution:

Example 2:

Solution:

Example 3:

Solution:

Summary:

A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without
replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white marble
is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a black marble on the first draw is 0.47.
What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the second draw, given that
the first marble drawn was black?
P(Black and White)
0.34
P(White|Black) =
=
= 0.72 = 72%
P(Black)
0.47
The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are
5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the
probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday?
P(Absent|
P(Friday and Absent)
0.03
=
=
= 0.15 = 15%
Friday)
P(Friday)
0.2
At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology and
Spanish is 0.087. The probability that a student takes Technology is 0.68. What is
the probability that a student takes Spanish given that the student is taking
Technology?
P(Technology and Spanish)
0.087
P(Spanish|Technology) =
=
= 0.13 = 13%
P(Technology)
0.68
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an event A is the
probability that event B occurs given that event A has already occurred. The
notation for conditional probability is P(B|A), read as the probability of B given
A. The formula for conditional probability is:

The Venn Diagram below illustrates P(A), P(B), and P(A and B). What two
sections would have to be divided to find P(B|A)? Answer

Venn diagram

Venn Diagrams
Market Survey Example | Simple Venn Example | Survey Sampling Example
Venn diagrams are a
method to help solve
John Venn (1834 - 1923)
problems in market
research, in science, in
for more information about Venn, check out:
social science, etc.
where often overlapping
Who was John Venn?
information is collected
http://sue.csc.uvic.ca/~cos/venn/VennJohnEJC.html
and needs to be sorted
out.

Examples
1. From a survey of 100 college students, a marketing research company found that 75 students
owned stereos, 45 owned cars, and 35 owned cars and stereos.
a) How many students owned either a car or a stereo?
b) How many students did not own either a car or a stereo?
METHOD:
a) Start with a Venn Diagram and label the different categories:

b) Fill in the number of students who own both cars and stereos, which would be in the
intersection of the two sets:

c) Fill in the remaining numbers for the two sets. In this case, since a total of 45 students own
cars, and 35 have already been listed, then 45 - 35 = 10 students own cars only. Similarly, since
75 students own stereos and 35 have already been listed, then 75 - 35 = 40 students who own
stereos only:

d) Finally, interpret and answer the questions:


How many students owned either a car or a stereo?
The question asks either ... or which is union of the sets.
From the diagram, the number of elements in A = 10 + 35
and the number of elements in B which are NOT in A are 40.
So the union would be 10+35+40 = 85
How many students did not own either a car or a stereo?
The question asks for the number not in either A nor B
(namely, the complement of A B or (A B)' ).
Since there are 100 students in the universe, then the complement is found
by subtracting those who own either a car or stereo from the total number of students surveyed
or 100 - 85 = 15.

2. Suppose n(U) = 150, n(A) = 37, and n(B) = 84.

a) If n( A U B) = 100, find n(a

B) and draw a Venn diagram illustrating the composition of U.

b) How many elements belong to A only?


METHOD:
a) Start with a Venn diagram and label the categories:

b) Since the number of elements in the union = 100,


add the number of elements in A to the numbers of elements in B:
37 + 84 = 121.
But 121 is larger than 100, which means that 121 - 100 = 21 must
be in both sets or in the intersection! And the first question
(If n( A U B) = 100, find n(a B) and draw a Venn diagram illustrating the composition of U.)
is answered!

c) Using the information about the intersection, the other numbers can then be filled in:

And the second question (How many elements belong to A only?) is answered
since the total number of elements in A is 37.
Then the remaining elements in A will be 37 - 21 = 16!

A class consists of six girls and 10 boys. If a committee of three is chosen at


random, find the probability of:

1 Three boys being chosen.

2 Exactly two boys and a girl being chosen.

3 Exactly two girls and a boy being chosen.

4 Three girls being chosen.

Calculate the probability of three coins landing on:

Three heads.

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