Sample Space and Events

Introduction to Probability
mutually exclusive

Example of two mutually exclusive events:

One die is rolled. Event A is rolling a 1 or 2.
Event B is rolling a 4 or 5.

Remalyn Q. Casem

Example of two non-mutually exclusive events:

One die is rolled. Event A is rolling
a 1 or 2. Event B is rolling a 2 or 3.

email: [email protected]

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Probability Theory

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Probability Theory

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Sample Space and Events

TOPICS
Sample space and events
collectively exhaustive

Set and event operations

Example of collectively exhaustive events:
One die is rolled. Event A is rolling a
number less than 5. Event B is rolling a
number greater than 3. Any roll of a die will
satisfy either A or B (in fact, a roll of 4
satisfies both).

Axioms of probability
Properties of probability
Finite probability spaces
Finite equiprobable spaces

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Probability Theory

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Sample Space and Events

Experiment

a procedure that generates

observable outcomes

Outcome
i

any possible observation of an

experiment. element

Sample space
S or

mutually exclusive, collectively

exhaustive set of all possible
outcomes. universal set

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mutually exclusive

collectively exhaustive

Example of events that are mutually

exclusive and collectively exhaustive:
You buy a stock today. The event A is that
the price of the stock goes up tomorrow.
The event B is the price of the stock goes
down tomorrow. Event C is the price of
the stock does not change.

finite/discrete
infinite/continuous

Probability Theory

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Sample Space and Events

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Probability Theory

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Sample Space and Events

Sample Space and Events

Experiment

Event
E

set of all outcomes (sample points)

satisfying some property that
characterizes that event. set

Outcomes
i

Sample space
S or

simple
compound

Events
E

independent
dependent

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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Experiment

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Example 1

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Example 3

2 rolls of a four-sided die, record

the sum
Sum of the two numbers, a number from
2 and 8
{2,3,4,5,6,7,8}

E1 = set of all even numbers

{2, 4, 6, 8}
E2 = set of numbers > 5
{6, 7, 8}

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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Example 4

Venn Diagrams: Flipping Three Coins

Roll a normal six-sided die once

Outcomes
Each outcome is a number i = 1, , 6
i
Sample space 6 distinct numbers: S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
S or
Events
E

E1 = set of all odd outcomes

(a)True / False
All three Venn diagrams are the sample
space of the outcomes of flipping a coin
three times: {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH,
THT, TTH, TTT}. TRUE

E2 = set of all outcomes greater than 2

E3 = set of all outcomes that are the
square of an integer

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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Experiment

Example 2

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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Example 4

Venn Diagrams: Flipping Three Coins

2 rolls of a four-sided die, record

both numbers

Outcomes
Pairs of numbers {1,2,3,4} x {1,2,3,4}
i
Sample space 16 distinct pairs if order matters;
S or
10 distinct pairs if order doesnt matter
Events E1 = set of all outcomes with
a sum equal to 4
E

(b) Event A could be described as: flipping a head

no times / exactly two times
at least once / at most two times

E2 = set of all outcomes with

an odd sum

at least once

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Sample Space and Events

Example 4

Set Operations
Union = {x/ x in A or x in B}

Venn Diagrams: Flipping Three Coins

Intersection = {x/ x in A and x in B}

(c) Event B could be described as: flipping a head
no times / exactly two times
at least once / at most two times
at most two times

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Sometimes AB is written as A+B

AB is written as AB
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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Example 4

Venn Diagrams: Flipping Three Coins

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Probability Theory

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Set Operations
Complement = {x/ x in S and x not in A}

Difference = {x in A and x not in B}

= (A B = A Bc)
(d) Event C could be described as: flipping a tail
no times / exactly two times
at least once / at most two times
at least once

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Probability Theory

Sample Space and Events

Example 4

Venn Diagrams: Flipping Three Coins

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Probability Theory

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Set Operations
(1) (A B)c = Ac Bc

De Morgans Theorems

NOT in (A or B) = (NOT in A) AND (NOT in B)

(d) Event D could be described as: flipping a head

no times / exactly two times
at least once / at most two times
exactly two times

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Probability Theory

(2) (A B)c = Ac Bc
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Event Operations
Let

Axioms of Probability

E1 = {a, b, c, d, e, f}
E2 = {e, f, g, h}
E3 = {i}

3) If A B = , then P [A B] = P [A] + P[B]

Additive property for disjoint events

S = {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j}
(a)

E2c = {a, b, c, d, i, j}

(b)

E1 E2 = {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h}

(c)

(E1 E2)E3 =

(d)

(E1 E2 )c = {i, j}

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Probability Theory

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Concept of Probability

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Properties of Probability
Properties derived from the three axioms:
i) P[] = 0

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an

event taking place once a random
experiment is conducted.

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Probability Theory

The empty set (null set) is the impossible event.

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Axioms of Probability

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Properties of Probability

To every event A E, a real number P[A] that

satisfies the following three axioms is assigned:

Properties derived from the three axioms:

ii) P [A] + P[Ac] = 1

1) 1 P[A] 0

The empty set (null set) is the impossible

event.

Probability is a nonnegative number.

2) P[S] = 1
S is the sure event.

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Properties of Probability

Finite Sample Spaces

Properties derived from the three axioms:

iii) P[A B] = P[A] + P [B] P[A B]

If we put these in a hat and pull one out at random, what is:

Additive property

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Properties of Probability

P(green square) =

4
7

P(numbered 1) =

2
7

Finite Sample Spaces

Properties derived from the three axioms:

iv) If A B, then P[B A] = P[B] P[A]

and P[A] P[B]

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Finite Sample Spaces

1 5
=
7 7

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Probability Theory

Example

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

many outcomes are said to have

(a) One die is rolled. Assign the probabilities to

the outcomes that accurately model the
likelihood of the various numbers to appear.

finite sample spaces.

Probability Theory

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4 2
+
7 7

Finite Sample Spaces

Experiments which have finitely

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5
7

P(green OR numbered 1) =

Probability Theory

If we put these in a hat and pull one out at random, what is:

P(NOT numbered 1) =

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Probability Theory

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P(2) = P(4) = P(6) =

1
12

P(1) = P(3) = P(5) =

3
12

Probability Theory

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Finite Probability Spaces

Example

Finite Probability Spaces

Example

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

(b) One die is rolled. What is the probability of

getting a 5?

(e) Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of

getting doubles?
1 2
P(2, 2) = P(2) P(2) = (
)
12
3 2
P(1, 1) = P(1) P(1) = (
)
12
1 2
3 2
P(doubles) = 3(
) + 3(
)
12
12

P(5) =

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3
12

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Probability Theory

Finite Probability Spaces

Example

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Probability Theory

Finite Probability Spaces

Example

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

(c) One die is rolled. What is the probability of

getting an even number?

(f) Two dice are rolled. What is the probability of

getting a sum of 7?

P(2) + P(4) + P(6) =

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3
12

P(1,6)+P(2,5)+P(3,4)+P(4,3)+P(5,2)+P(6,1)
3
1
1
3
= 3(

) + 3(

)
12 12
12 12
3
1
= 6(

)
12 12
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Probability Theory

Finite Probability Spaces

Example

A die is loaded so that the numbers 2, 4 and

6 are equally likely to appear. 1, 3, and 5
are also equally likely to appear, but 1 is
three times more likely as 2 to appear.

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Equiprobable Spaces
If all the sample points within a given finite
probability space are equal to each other,
then it is known as an equiprobable space.
Examples:

(d) One die is rolled. What is the probability of

not getting a 5?

1-

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A toss of a fair coin.

Select a name at random from a hat.

3
9
3
=
=
12 12 4

Probability Theory

Throwing a well balanced die.

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Equiprobable Spaces

Equiprobable Spaces

From a group of 10 women and 5 men, 2

people are selected at random to form a
committee. Find the probability that

Theoretical Probability

=> finding the probability of events

that come from an equiprobable
sample space.
P (E ) =

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(a) only men are selected

n(only men selected) = C(5, 2) = 10
n(2 person committees) = C(15, 2) = 105

n(E)
n(S)

10
2
=
0.095
105
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Probability Theory

Equiprobable Spaces

Example 1

(1, 2)

(1, 3)

(1, 4)

(1, 5)

(1, 6)

(2, 1)

(2, 2)

(2, 3)

(2, 4)

(2, 5)

(2, 6)

(3, 1)

(3, 2)

(3, 3)

(3, 4)

(3, 5)

(3, 6)

(4, 1)

(4, 2)

(4, 3)

(4, 4)

(4, 5)

(4, 6)

(5, 1)

(5, 2)

(5, 3)

(5, 4)

(5, 5)

(5, 6)

(6, 1)

(6, 2)

(6, 3)

(6, 4)

(6, 5)

(6, 6)

Equiprobable Spaces

n(exactly 1 man and 1 woman) = C(5, 1) = 50

n(2 person committees) = C(15, 2) = 105
50
10
=
0.476
105
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Example 1

(1, 2)

(1, 3)

(1, 4)

(1, 5)

(1, 6)

(2, 2)

(2, 3)

(2, 4)

(2, 5)

(2, 6)

(3, 1)

(3, 2)

(3, 3)

(3, 4)

(3, 5)

(3, 6)

(4, 1)

(4, 2)

(4, 3)

(4, 4)

(4, 5)

(4, 6)

(5, 1)

(5, 2)

(5, 3)

(5, 4)

(5, 5)

(5, 6)

(6, 1)

(6, 2)

(6, 3)

(6, 4)

(6, 5)

(6, 6)

Probability Theory

Example 3

(a) a senior or a junior is picked

27
15
42
+
=
0.592
71
71
71

4
1
=
0.111
36
9
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Probability Theory

One student's name will be picked at

random to win a CD player. There are 12
male seniors, 15 female seniors, 10 male
juniors,
5
female
juniors,
2
male
sophomores, 4 female sophomores, 11 male
freshmen and 12 female freshman. Find the
probability that

(b) the sum of the two numbers is 5

(2, 1)

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Equiprobable Spaces

A pair of fair dice is tossed. Determine the

probability that

(1, 1)

Example 2

(b) exactly 1 man and 1 woman

11
0.306
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Probability Theory

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Probability Theory

From a group of 10 women and 5 men, 2

people are selected at random to form a
committee. Find the probability of selecting

(a) at least one of the dice shows a 6

(1, 1)

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Equiprobable Spaces

A pair of fair dice is tossed. Determine the

probability that

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Example 2

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Equiprobable Spaces

Example 3

Equiprobable Spaces

One student's name will be picked at

random to win a CD player. There are 12
male seniors, 15 female seniors, 10 male
juniors,
5
female
juniors,
2
male
sophomores, 4 female sophomores, 11 male
freshmen and 12 female freshman. Find the
probability that

Lotto is a game where the player picks 6

balls from a possible 49.
(b) What are the odds of getting just 4 balls?
possible winning 4-number combinations
= C(6, 4) C(43, 2) = 15 903 = 13, 545

(b) a freshman or a female is picked

13, 545
1
=
13, 983, 816
1,032

23
36 12
47
+
=
0.662
71
71 71
71

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Probability Theory

Equiprobable Spaces

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Techniques of Counting

Mrs. Remalyn Q. Casem

(c) a freshman is NOT picked

email: [email protected]

P(E) = 1 - P(a freshman is picked)

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Probability Theory

Example 3

One student's name will be picked at

random to win a CD player. There are 12
male seniors, 15 female seniors, 10 male
juniors,
5
female
juniors,
2
male
sophomores, 4 female sophomores, 11 male
freshmen and 12 female freshman. Find the
probability that

=1-

Example 4

23
48
=
0.676
71
71
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Probability Theory

Equiprobable Spaces

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Probability Theory

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Example 4
TOPICS

Lotto is a game where the player picks 6

balls from a possible 49.

Fundamental Counting Principle and

Tree Diagrams
Permutations
Circular Permutations
Combinations

(a) What are the odds of getting the jackpot?

(The player picks the same 6 balls as the 6
chosen at the draw.)
To choose 6 numbers from 49 is C(49,6).
Therefore, the odds are
1
1
=
C(49,6) 13, 983, 816

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Fundamental Counting Principle

Fundamental Counting Principle

A small community consists of 10 women,

each of whom has 3 children. If one woman
and one of her children are to be chosen as
mother and child of the year, how many
different choices are possible?

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Probability Theory

How many different 7-place license plates

are possible if the rst 3 places are to be
occupied by letters and the nal 4 by
numbers if repetition among letters or
numbers were prohibited?

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Probability Theory

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Tree Diagrams

Fundamental Counting Principle

Determine all the possible outcomes when a

coin is tossed three times.

A college planning committee consists of 3

freshmen, 4 sophomores, 5 juniors, and 2
seniors. A subcommittee of 4, consisting of 1
person from each class, is to be chosen. How
many different subcommittees are possible?

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Probability Theory

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Fundamental Counting Principle

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Permutations
How many different ordered arrangements of
the letters a, b,and c are possible?
abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
Each arrangement is known as a permutation.

How many different 7-place license plates

are possible if the rst 3 places are to be
occupied by letters and the nal 4 by
numbers?

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Probability Theory

The different permutations of the n objects are

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Permutations

Permutations

The different permutations of the n objects are

1.

The different permutations of the n objects are

3. Ms. Jones has 10 books that she is

going to put on her bookshelf. Of
these, 4 are mathematics books, 3 are
chemistry books, 2 are history books,
and 1 is a language book. Ms. Jones
wants to arrange her books so that all
the books dealing with the same
subject are together on the shelf. How
many different arrangements
are
possible?

How many different batting

orders are possible for a baseball
team consisting of 9 players?

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Permutations

Permutations
The different permutations of the n objects are

We shall now determine the number of

permutations of a set of n objects when
certain of the objects are the same from
each other. To set this situation straight in
our minds, consider the following example.

2. A class in probability theory consists of

6 men and 4 women. An examination is
given, and the students are ranked
according
to
their
performance.
Assume that no two students obtain
the same score.
(a) How many different rankings are
possible?

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Permutations

Probability Theory

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Permutations

The different permutations of the n objects are

How many different letter arrangements can be

formed from the letters PEPPER?

2. A class in probability theory consists of

6 men and 4 women. An examination is
given, and the students are ranked
according
to
their
performance.
Assume that no two students obtain
the same score.
(b) If the men are ranked just
among themselves and the women
just among them selves, how many
different rankings are possible?

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Probability Theory

Hence, there are 6!/(3! 2!) = 60 possible letter

arrangements of the letters PEPPER.

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Permutations

Combinations

We shall now determine the number of

permutations of a set of n objects when
certain of the objects are the same from
each other. To set this situation straight in
our minds, consider the following example.

From a group of 5 women and 7 men, how

many different committees consisting of 2
women and 3 men can be formed?
What if 2 of the men are feuding and refuse
to serve on the committee together?

different permutations of n objects,

of which n1 are alike, n2 are alike,
... , nr are alike.
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Permutations

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EXERCISES

A chess tournament has 10 competitors, of

which 4 are Russian, 3 are from the United
States, 2 are from Great Britain, and 1 is
from Brazil. If the tournament result lists
just the nationalities of the players in the
order in which they placed, how many
outcomes are possible?
How many different signals, each consisting
of 9 ags hung in a line, can be made from a
set of 4 white ags, 3 red ags, and 2 blue
ags if all ags of the same color are
identical?

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Combinations

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EXERCISES

To determine the number of different groups

of r objects that could be formed from a
total of n objects

A committee of 3 is to be formed from a

group of 20 people. How many different
committees are possible?

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

End of Presentation

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EXERCISES

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EXERCISES

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