Internal Rate of Return
Internal Rate of Return
Denition
Uses of IRR
NPV =
Cn
=0
(1
+
r)n
n=0
3 CALCULATION
Any xed time can be used in place of the present (e.g., 3.1.2 Numerical solution for single outow and
the end of one interval of an annuity); the value obtained
multiple inows
is zero if and only if the NPV is zero.
Of particular interest is the case where the stream of payIn the case that the cash ows are random variables, such
ments consists of a single outow, followed by multiple
as in the case of a life annuity, the expected values are put
inows occurring at equal periods. In the above notation,
into the above formula.
this corresponds to:
Often, the value of r cannot be found analytically. In this
case, numerical methods or graphical methods must be
used.
C0 < 0, Cn 0 for n 1.
3.1
Example
If an investment may be given by the sequence of cash Given two estimates r1 and r2 for IRR, the secant method
equation (see above) with n = 2 always produces an imows
proved estimate r3 . This is sometimes referred to as the
then the IRR r is given by
Hit and Trial (or Trial and Error) method. More accurate
interpolation formulas can also be obtained: for instance
the secant formula with correction
36200
54800
48100
NPV = 123400+
+
+
= 0.
(1 + r)1 (1 + r)2 (1 + r)3
(
)(
rn rn1
NPVn1
r
=
r
NPV
1 1.4
n
n
In this case, the answer is 5.96% (in the calculation, that n+1
NPVn NPVn1
NPVn1 3NPVn +
is, r = .0596).
(which is most accurate when 0 > NPVn > NPVn1
) has been shown to be almost 10 times more accurate
than the secant formula for a wide range of interest rates
3.1.1 Numerical solution
and initial guesses. For example, using the stream of
Since the above is a manifestation of the general problem payments {4000, 1200, 1410, 1875, 1050} and initial
of nding the roots of the equation NPV(r) = 0 , there guesses r1 = 0.25 and r2 = 0.2 the secant formula with
are many numerical methods that can be used to estimate correction gives an IRR estimate of 14.2% (0.7% error)
as compared to IRR = 13.2% (7% error) from the secant
r . For example, using the secant method, r is given by
method. Other improved formulas may be found in [2]
(
rn+1 = rn NPVn
rn rn1
NPVn NPVn1
)
.
If applied iteratively, either the secant method or the improved formula always converges to the correct solution.
Both the secant method and the improved formula rely on
initial guesses for IRR. The following initial guesses may
be used:
r1 = (A/|C0 |)
2/(N +1)
r2 = (1 + r1 )p 1
where
A = inows of sum = C1 + + CN
p=
log(A/|C0 |)
.
log(A/NPV1,in )
Having r1 >r0 when NPV0 > 0 or r1 <r0 when NPV0 < 0 Here, NPV1,in refers to the NPV of the inows only (that
is, set C0 = 0 and compute NPV).
may speed up convergence of rn to r .
3.2
Decision criterion
In a series of cash ows like (10, 21, 11), one initially invests money, so a high rate of return is best, but
If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the then receives more than one possesses, so then one owes
project.
money, so now a low rate of return is best. In this case
If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the it is not even clear whether a high or a low IRR is better. There may even be multiple IRRs for a single project,
project.
like in the example 0% as well as 10%. Examples of this
type of project are strip mines and nuclear power plants,
where there is usually a large cash outow at the end of
4 Problems with using internal the project.
rate of return
In general, the IRR can be calculated by solving a polynomial equation. Sturms theorem can be used to determine
As an investment decision tool, the calculated IRR should if that equation has a unique real solution. In general the
not be used to rate mutually exclusive projects, but only IRR equation cannot be solved analytically but only iteratively.
to decide whether a single project is worth investing in.
When a project has multiple IRRs it may be more convenient to compute the IRR of the project with the benets
reinvested.[3] Accordingly, MIRR is used, which has an
assumed reinvestment rate, usually equal to the projects
cost of capital.
It has been shown[4] that with multiple internal rates of
return, the IRR approach can still be interpreted in a way
that is consistent with the present value approach provided that the underlying investment stream is correctly
identied as net investment or net borrowing.
See also [5] for a way of identifying the relevant value of
the IRR from a set of multiple IRR solutions.
IRR should not be used to compare projects of dierent duration. For example, the net present value added
by a project with longer duration but lower IRR could be
greater than that of a project of similar size, in terms of
total net cash ows, but with shorter duration and higher
IRR.
5 Mathematics
4
ow have a dierent sign there exists an internal rate of
return. Examples of time series without an IRR:
9 SEE ALSO
Finally, by Descartes rule of signs, the number of internal rates of return can never be more than the number of
In the context of investment performance measurement,
changes in sign of cash ow.
there is sometimes ambiguity in terminology between the
periodic rate of return, such as the internal rate of return
as dened above, and a holding period return. The term
internal rate of return or IRR or Since Inception Internal
6 The reinvestment misconception Rate of Return (SI-IRR) is in some contexts used to refer
to the unannualized return over the period, particularly
for periods of less than a year.[12]
It is often stated that IRR assumes reinvestment of all cash
ows until the very end of the project. This is a misconception. There is no hidden reinvestment assumption
associated with the calculation of IRR. IRR is simply the 9 See also
solution to the equation in the example shown above. The
cash ows are static. The NPV is set at zero. There is only
Accounting rate of return
one unknown variable in the equation, namely r.
Capital budgeting
This misconception likely stems from the modied internal rate of return MIRR concept, which allows for inclu Discounted cash ow
sion of a second, subsequent investment. If the reinvestment rate is set at IRR, the MIRR equals the IRR. This
Modied internal rate of return
is hardly a surprise - compounding cash ows (with the
Modied Dietz method
IRR) and then discounting them using the same discount
factor (the IRR) is obviously a zero-sum game.
Net present value
There are many, highly reputable sources [3][7] arguing
that there is a hidden reinvestment assumption in the IRR
Rate of return
calculation. There are, however, also many sources dis Simple Dietz method
puting the so-called reinvestment assumption.[8]
10
References
[1] Project Economics and Decision Analysis, Volume I: Deterministic Models, M.A.Main, Page 269
[2] Moten, J. and Thron, C., Improvements on Secant
Method for Estimating Internal Rate of Return, International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics 42:12(2013), http://www.ceser.in/ceserp/index.php/
ijamas/article/view/1929.
[3] Internal Rate of Return: A Cautionary Tale
[4] Hazen, G. B., A new perspective on multiple internal
rates of return, The Engineering Economist 48(2), 2003,
3151.
[5] Hartman, J. C., and Schafrick, I. C., The relevant internal
rate of return, The Engineering Economist 49(2), 2004,
139158.
[6] Pogue, M.(2004). Investment Appraisal: A New Approach. Managerial Auditing Journal.Vol. 19 No. 4,
2004. pp. 565570
[7] Measuring Investment Returns
[8]
[9] The Mathematics of the Fixed Rate Equivalent, a
GreaterThanZero White Paper.
[10] Teichroew, D., Robicheck, A., and Montalbano, M.,
Mathematical analysis of rates of return under certainty,
Management Science Vol. 11 Nr. 3, January 1965, 395
403.
[11] Teichroew, D., Robicheck, A., and Montalbano, M., An
analysis of criteria for investment and nancing decisions
under certainty, Management Science Vol. 12 Nr. 3,
November 1965, 151179.
[12] Global Investment Performance Standards
11
Further reading
1. Bruce J. Feibel. Investment Performance Measurement. New York: Wiley, 2003. ISBN 0-47126849-6
12
External links
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