Chapter 13 - Build A Model Spreadsheet
Chapter 13 - Build A Model Spreadsheet
10
3.11
2010
8.0
20.0
80.0
160.0
268.0
600.0
868.0
Retained earnings
Common equity
Total liabilities and equity
Projected ratios and selected information for the current and projected years are shown below.
Inputs
Sales Growth Rate
Costs / Sales
Depreciation / Net PPE
Actual
2010
Projected
2011
Projected
2012
Projected
2013
72%
10%
15%
72%
10%
10%
72%
10%
6%
72%
10%
Cash / Sales
Acct. Rec. / Sales
Inventories / Sales
Net PPE / Sales
Acct. Pay. / Sales
Accruals / Sales
Tax rate
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
1%
10%
20%
75%
2%
5%
40%
10.5%
1%
10%
20%
75%
2%
5%
40%
10.5%
1%
10%
20%
75%
2%
5%
40%
10.5%
1%
10%
20%
75%
2%
5%
40%
10.5%
a. Forecast the parts of the income statement and balance sheets necessary to calculate free cash flow.
Partial Income Statement for the Year Ending December 31 (Millions of Dollars)
Actual
2010
Net Sales
Costs (except depreciation)
Depreciation
Total operating costs
Earning before int. & tax
$
$
$
$
$
800.0
576.0
60.0
636.0
164.0
Projected
2011
$
$
$
$
$
920.0
662.4
69.0
731.4
188.6
Projected
2012
$
$
$
$
$
1,012.0
728.6
75.9
804.5
207.5
Projected
2013
$
$
$
$
$
1,072.7
772.4
80.5
852.8
219.9
Operating Assets
Projected
2011
Projected
2012
Projected
2013
Cash
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Net plant and equipment
$
$
$
$
8.0
80.0
160.0
600.0
$
$
$
$
9.2
92.0
184.0
690.0
$
$
$
$
10.1
101.2
202.4
759.0
$
$
$
$
10.7
107.3
214.5
804.5
Operating Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accruals
$
$
16.0
40.0
$
$
18.4
46.0
$
$
20.2
50.6
$
$
21.5
53.6
b. Calculate free cash flow for each projected year. Also calculate the growth rates of free cash flow each year to ensure
that there is constant growth (i.e., the same as the constant growth rate in sales) by the end of the forecast period.
Actual
Projected
Projected
Projected
Calculation of FCF
2010
2011
2012
2013
Operating current assets
248.0
285.2
313.7
332.5
Operating current liabilities
56.0
64.4
70.8
75.1
Net operating working capital
192.0
220.8
242.9
257.5
Net PPE
600.0
690.0
759.0
804.5
Net operating capital
792.0
910.8
1,001.9
1,062.0
NOPAT
98.4
113.2
124.5
131.9
Investment in operating capital
na
118.8
91.1
60.1
Free cash flow
na
(5.6)
33.4
71.8
Growth in FCF
na
na
-692.1%
115.1%
Growth in sales
15.0%
10.0%
6.0%
c. Calculate operating profitability (OP=NOPAT/Sales), capital requirements (CR=Operating capital/Sales), and return
on invested capital (ROIC=NOPAT/Operating capital at beginning of year). Based on the spread between ROIC and
WACC, do you think that the company will have a positive market value added (MVA= Market value of company - book
value of company = Value of operations - Operating capital)?
c. Calculate operating profitability (OP=NOPAT/Sales), capital requirements (CR=Operating capital/Sales), and return
on invested capital (ROIC=NOPAT/Operating capital at beginning of year). Based on the spread between ROIC and
WACC, do you think that the company will have a positive market value added (MVA= Market value of company - book
value of company = Value of operations - Operating capital)?
Actual
2010
Projected
2011
Operating profitability
(OP=NOPAT/Sales)
12.3%
12.3%
Capital requirement
(CR=Operating capital/Sales)
99.0%
99.0%
Return on invested capital
(ROIC=NOPAT/Operating capital at
start of year)
na
14.3%
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
na
10.5%
Spread between ROIC and WACC
na
3.8%
Yes, because the spread is positive, the company should have a positive MVA.
Projected
2012
Projected
2013
12.3%
12.3%
99.0%
99.0%
13.7%
10.5%
3.2%
13.2%
10.5%
2.7%
d. Calculate the value of operations and MVA. (Hint: first calculate the horizon value at the end of the forecast period,
which is equal to the value of operations at the end of the forecast period. Assume that the annual growth rate beyond the
horizon is 6 percent.)
Actual
2010
Free cash flow
Long-term constant growth in FCF
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Horizon value
FCF in Years 1-3 and FCF4 + horizon value in Year 4
Value of operations (PV of FCF + HV)
(5.6)
10.5%
10.5%
(5.6)
1,329.6
Operating capital
792.0
537.6
Projected
2011
1,329.6
20.0
1,349.6
340.0
15.0
994.6
10
99.5
Projected
2012
Projected
2013
33.4
71.8
10.5%
10.5%
33.4
71.8
4/11/2010
$
$
$
$
$
$
2010
16.0
40.0
40.0
96.0
300.0
15.0
257.0
200.0
457.0
868.0
Projected
2014
6%
72%
10%
1%
10%
20%
75%
2%
5%
40%
10.5%
flow.
Projected
2014
$
$
$
$
$
1,137.1
818.7
85.3
904.0
233.1
Projected
2014
$
$
$
$
11.4
113.7
227.4
852.8
$
$
22.7
56.9
Projected
2014
12.3%
99.0%
13.2%
10.5%
2.7%