Fund Manager Overview

The Fund Manager Captain Kripalsinh Parmar holds two of

CAPTAIN
KRIPALSINH
PARMAR

the highest degrees in the field of Technical Analysis :-

MSTA (Member of the Society of Technical Analysts)

awarded by STA (Society of Technical Analsyts),UK .

CFTe (Certified Financial Technician) awarded by IFTA

(International Federation of Technical Analysts),USA .

He isTraditional
also a Commercial
Pilot and holds Pilot License of 3 countries :
Asset Classes
Australia, New Zealand and India .

With his hard core Pilot Discipline and Mechanical Approach to manage risk in
Trend Following Systems through which he has been trading in his own account
and managing clients fund .

He has an audited track record of producing Consistent Absolute Returns

irrespective of Market condition .

The Investment Universe

Trend Following or
Discipline Trading
System (DTS) are an
asset class in their
own right separate
from traditional
investments such as
stocks, commodity
or bonds.

ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES

Hedge Funds

Trend Following
Private Equity

TRADITIONAL ASSET CLASSES

Cash
Bonds
Equities
Real Estate

Challenge before Investor

MAKE CONSISTENCE MONEY

IRRESPECTIVE OF MARKET
CONDITION

95 % TRADER LOOSE & ONLY 5% EARN

MARKET TIMEING

DONT HAVE TIME FOR STOCK

RESEARCH & REVIEW

DIVERSIFICATION & HEDGE OF

PORTFOLIO

TREND
FOLLOWING
TRIES TO
ANSWER
MOST OF
THEM

Trend Following

There is only one side in stock

market and it is not the Bulls
side or Bears side, it is the
right side
Jesse Livermore

The Turtle Story

Traditional Asset Classes

What is Trend Following?

Trend followers make money in both BULL & BEAR

MARKETS as they take long positions in BULL
MARKET when the trend is UP and take short
positions in BEAR MARKET when the trend is DOWN.
Trend following strategies shift portfolio exposure
according to the rules based processes that react to
existing trends in the price and volatility of
securities.

Why Trend Following?

Traditional Investment Trend Following
Relative return

Absolute return

Worldwide stock
markets highly
correlated

No correlation to traditional
investments

Passively managed

Broad choices:
Stocks indices, bonds,
currencies, metals, energy,
grains, ...

Limited choices: Stocks,

bonds

Actively managed

RESULT: Trend Following offer potential

absolute returns in both bull and bear markets

Why Trend Following?

Profit in up and down markets

No more buy and hold Analysis

No prediction

The big money of letting profits run

Money & Risk management
Takes advantage of mass psychology
Scientific approach to trading

What
is Trend?
Why Trend
Following?
Trend reversal
Trend traps
Entrance

Trend trap
Exit

Exit
Entrance

Entrance
Trend

Strong trend

Profit
Trendless period

Exit

Exit

trap

Trend trap

Entrance

Entrance

Profit
Trend reversal
Exit

Strong Trend
Trend reversal
Source: Superfund

Money & Risk Management Principal

Technical trading system to recognize

trends
Automatically initiates buy and sell orders
and readjusts stop loss orders
No emotions

Maximum initial risk per trade

Maximum risk for each position
Consideration of volatilities and

correlations
Maximum exposure per market

Trend-following v/s Technical &

Fundamental Analysis
Parameter

Technical
(Discretionary)

Fundamental

Trend
Following

Based on

Price, vol. &

Indicators

Balance sheet&
many more

Price

Prediction of price

Yes

Yes

No

Back testing

No

No

Yes

Target

Yes

Yes

No

Emotion

Partly yes

Yes

No

Proven Consistence &

track record

No

No

Yes

Rules

Complex

Complex

Simple

DOES

TREND
FOLLOWING
work in INDIA

Lets Run through

few Big Greed &
Fear Events

Event -1 LOWER CIRCUIT 2008

System was in sell mode 4 days before Lower Circuit 2008.

Event -2 LEHMAN BROTHER CRISIS

System was in sell mode 15 days before the Lehman Brother Crisis.

EVENT -3 ELECTION RESULT 2009

System was in buy mode 11 days before the Upper Circuit in Election 2009.

EVENT -4 CAPTURED THE BIGGEST MOVE

One of the biggest move in Nifty in January 2012.

EVENT -5 MAMTA BANERJEE LEFT UPA

Trend followers was in again on the right side in political uncertainty.

EVENT -6 ELECTION 2014

System gave a buy signal 5 days before the Modi win.

PRICE DISCOUNTS

EVERYTHING
Trend followers are always on the
RIGHT SIDE much before the big
event or big moves

Back Testing Nifty & Banknifty

Nifty 14 years Backtesting Summary
Parameters
ACCURACY

Result

MAX. CONSECUTIVE DRAWDOWN

800

MAX. DRAWDOWN IN SINGLE TRADE

235

MAX. DRAWDOWN ON CAPITAL

INVESTMENT
AVG. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
LEVERAGE

Parameters

45%

MAX. CONSECUTIVE LOSS TRADES

MAX. TIME TO ACHIEVE BREAKEVEN

Banknifty 14 years Backtesting

ACCURACY

45%

MAX. CONSECUTIVE LOSS TRADES

MAX. CONSECUTIVE DRAWDOWN

2000

MAX. DRAWDOWN IN SINGLE

TRADE

407

6 month

33%
150000
40%-60%
3 TIMES

MAX. TIME TO ACHIEVE

BREAKEVEN

6
MONTHS

MAX. DRAWDOWN ON CAPITAL

INVESTMENT

35%
150000

AVG. RETURN ON INVESTMENT

LEVERAGE

Full SUMMARY

Result

60%-80%
3 TIMES

Full SUMMARY

BMA USP 10 Trade

We have thoroughly Back-tested our System for
more than 14 years on Nifty & 7 years on Banknifty.

Based on Back-testing & actual trade from 2011, we

have concluded that if you give 10 trades to the
System, even the System is committed to give you
positive outcome in every 10 trades.

Our combined

product (Nifty & Banknifty)

drawdown is not more than 25%.

If you are interested to see the Backtesting, we are

more than happy to share it with you.

Product Detailing
The product will take positions in Index , Bank Nifty future*
short / long based on the technical indicators.

It is a Mechanical based trading where traders take long, short

positions or doesnt do anything as per the pre-defined
indicators for trading.

The margin could be in form of cash and your stock holding. It

may generate return on your long term holding.

Index is a portfolio of 50 Stocks (Nifty) across Various sector. By

trading in nifty, you are not taking any stocks or sector specific
views. Bank Nifty is more volatility since it is sectoral Indices.
Highly liquid & low impact cost low.

MARGIN REQUIREMENT

1,50,000

1,50,000

NIFTY1,50,000

BANK
1,50,000
NIFTY

3,00,000
3,00,000
TOTAL

Risk & Costs associated

It is leveraged & margin based product.

There could be MTM losses which you have to

pay in cash.

It is not arbitrage or capital guaranteed

product.

Summary of System

Still thinking?
EMBRACE THE CHANGE,
UNLEASH THE MARKET
POTENTIAL

Call 18603001099 or your

nearest BMA branch for
more details. You may
write to us at
trendfollowing@bmastock
.com

If you are committed for 10

trades, then even the
SYSTEM is committed to
give you Positive outcome
in 10 trade.

THANK YOU !

Authored by: Sourav Sengupta.

Copyright @ BMA Wealth Creators Pvt Ltd.

Nifty Backtesting
YEAR

POINTS

TRADES

INTRADAY
WHIPSAW
POINTS

INTRADAY
WHIPSAW
TRADES

TOTAL
TRADES

IMPACT
COST

NET PROFIT

YEARLY
CLOSE

SYSTEM
RETURNS

BUY AND
HOLD
RETURNS

2000

1484

21

176

14

35

210

1098

1263

87%

-15%

2001

799

28

159

15

43

258

382

1059

36%

-16%

2002

417

26

219

20

46

276

-78

1093

-7%

3%

2003

1130

28

282

15

43

301

547

1879

29%

72%

2004

978

26

291

14

40

280

407

2080

20%

11%

2005

1425

28

340

12

40

320

765

2836

27%

36%

2006

2318

28

595

15

43

387

1336

3966

34%

40%

2007

3436

30

1289

21

51

561

1586

6138

26%

55%

2008

4701

32

503

17

49

392

3806

2959

129%

-52%

2009

3029

32

363

39

390

2276

5201

44%

76%

2010

2356

28

675

11

39

429

1252

6134

20%

18%

2011

3534

29

555

12

41

369

2610

4624

56%

-25%

2012

2759

26

591

10

36

396

1772

5905

30%

28%

2013

3081

37

1009

16

53

583

1489

6304

24%

7%

2014

1711

17

560

25

300

851

TOTAL

33158

416

7607

207

623

5452

19248

554%

238%

40%

16%

AVG. RETURN

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Banknifty Backtesting

YEAR POINTS TRADES

2008
4985
20
2009
8174
28
2010
7834
26
2011
6991
35
2012
7949
28
2013 10605
34
2014
4093
19
TOTAL

50631

190

INTRAD
AY
INTRADAY WHIPSA
TOTAL IMPACT
WHIPSAW
W
POINTS
TRADES TRADES COST
-800
16
36
540
-1980
22
50
950
-3068
26
52
1144
-1280
16
51
918
-1875
15
43
946
-2147
19
53
1113
-1340
10
29
696
-12490

124

314

6307

NET
PROFIT
3645
5244
3622
4793
5128
7345
2057

YEARLY
SYSTEM
CLOSE RETURNS
5001
73%
9029
58%
11791
31%
7968
60%
12474
41%
11385
65%

BUY
AND
HOLD
RETUR
NS
-21%
81%
31%
-32%
57%
-9%

31834

327%

107%

55%

18%

AVG.
RETURN

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