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Jcss Probabilistic Modelcode Part 3: Resistance Models

This document discusses model uncertainties in structural analysis. It defines model uncertainties as errors that arise from simplifications and omissions in mathematical models used to predict structural response. Common sources of model uncertainty include neglecting 3D effects, inhomogeneities, imperfections, and simplified connection behavior. The document recommends treating model uncertainties as random variables in analysis. It also provides examples of introducing model uncertainty into calculation models and recommends probabilistic distributions and coefficients of variation for different sources of model uncertainty in load calculation, resistance, and other models.

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103 views

Jcss Probabilistic Modelcode Part 3: Resistance Models

This document discusses model uncertainties in structural analysis. It defines model uncertainties as errors that arise from simplifications and omissions in mathematical models used to predict structural response. Common sources of model uncertainty include neglecting 3D effects, inhomogeneities, imperfections, and simplified connection behavior. The document recommends treating model uncertainties as random variables in analysis. It also provides examples of introducing model uncertainty into calculation models and recommends probabilistic distributions and coefficients of variation for different sources of model uncertainty in load calculation, resistance, and other models.

Uploaded by

dimitrios25
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© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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1

JCSS PROBABILISTIC MODELCODE


PART 3: RESISTANCE MODELS

3.9

MODEL UNCERTAINTIES

Table of Contents
3.9.1
3.9.2
3.9.3

General
Types of models for structural analysis
Recommendations for practice

List of Symbols
Y = response of the structure according to the model
Y = real response of the structure
f( ) = model function
( ) = model function including model uncertainties
Xi = basic variable
i = model uncertainty

3.9

MODEL UNCERTAINTIES

3.9.1

General

In order to calculate the response of a structure with certain (random) properties under certain
(random) actions use is made of models (see Part I, section 5). In general such a model can be
described as a functional relation of the type:
Y = f (X1,X2,Xn)

(3.9.1)

Y = response of the structure


f( ) = model function
Xi = basic variables (actions and structural properteis)
The model function f (..) is usually not complete and exact, so that the outcome Y cannot be
predicted without error, even if the values of all random basic variables are known. The real
outcome Y of the experiment can formally be written down as:
Y = (X1 Xn , 12)

(3.9.2)

The variables i are referred to as parameters which contain the model uncertainties and are
treated as random variables. The model uncertainties account for:
random effects that are neglected in the models
simplifications in the mathematical relations
Ideally model uncertainties should be obtained from a set of representative laboratory
experiments and measurements on real structures where all values of Xi are measured or
controlled. In those case a model uncertainty has the nature of an intrinsic uncertainty. If the
number of measurements is small the statistical uncertainty may be large. Additional there
may be uncertainty due to measurement errors both in the Xi and in the Y. Bayesian regressian
analysis usually is the appropriate tool to deal with the above situation.
In many cases, however, a good and consistent set of experiments is lacking and statistical
properties for model uncertainties are purely based on engineering judgement. Sometimes a
comparison between various models may help to defend certain propositions.
The most common way of introducing the model uncertainty into the calculation model is as
follows:

or

Y = 1 (X1 Xn )

(3.9.3)

Y = 1 + (X1 Xn )

(3.9.4)

or a combination of both. The first definition is clarified in Figure 3.9.1


It should be kept in mind that this way the statistical properties of the model uncertainties
depend on the exact definition of the model output. A theoretical elegant way to avoid these
definition dependency is to link model uncertainties directly to the basic variables, that is to
introduce Xi = 1 Xi..

= Y / f(X1,..Xn)

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 experiment number

Figure 3.9.1: estimation of model uncertainty statistics on a number of tests following


definition 3.9.3

3.9.2 Types of models for structural analysis


Model uncertainties can be subdivided into:
-load calculations models
-load effect calculation models
-local stiffness and resistance models
For the model uncertainties in the load models reference is made to Part 2.
The load effect calculation models have to do with the linear or nonlinear calculation of
stresses, axial forces, shear forces and bending and torsional moments in the various structural
elements. The model uncertainties are usually the result of negligence of for example 3Deffects, inhomogenities, interactions, boundary effects, simplification of connection
behaviour, imperfections and so on. The scatter of the model uncertainty will also depend on
the type of structure (frame, plates, shell, solids, etc).
The local models are used to define the behaviour of an element, a typical cross section or
even of the material in a single point. One may think in this respect of the visco-elastic model,
the elastic plastic model, the yield condition (Von Mises, Tresca, Coulomb), the hardening
and softening behaviour, the thermal properties and so on.

3.9.3. Recommendations for practice


Models may be of a numerical , analytical or empirical nature. In the recommended values in
Table 3.9.1 a more or less standard structural Finite Element Model has been kept in mind.
The model uncertainties are assumed to be partly correlated throughout the structure: on one
point of the structure the circumstances will usually be different from another point which
makes it unlikely that a full correlation exists. For that reason the Table 3.9.1 also includes an
estimate for the degree of correlation between various points or critical cross sections in one
structure.

Table 3.9.1 Recommended probabilistic models for Model Uncertainties

Model type
load effect calculation
moments in frames
axial forces in frames
shear forces in frames
moments in plates
forces in plates
stresses in 2D solids
stresses in 3D solids
resistance models steel (static)
bending moment capacity (1)
shear capacity
welded connectio capacity
bolted connection capacity
resistance models concrete (static)
bending moment capacity (1)
buckling

shear capacity
connection capacity
(1) including the effects of normal and shear forces.

Distr

mean

CoV

LN
LN
LN
LN
LN
N
N

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.05

LN
LN
LN
LN

1.0
1.0
1.15
1.25

0.05
0.05
0.15
0.15

LN
LN
LN

1.2
1.4
1.0

0.15
0.25
0.1

corre
lation

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