NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT

HURRICANE NORBERT
EP142014
2 8 September 2014
Lixion A. Avila
National Hurricane Center
25 November 2014

NOAA GOES 13 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE AT 0600 UTC 6 JUNE 2014 OF HURRICANE NORBERT
AROUND THE TIME OF ITS PEAK INTENSITY. IMAGE COURTESY OF THE U.S. NAVY RESEARCH
LABORATORY.

Norbert was a category 3 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), the
sixth major hurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season. It spent most of its life
moving parallel to the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula

Hurricane NORBERT

Hurricane NORBERT
2 8 SEPTEMBER 2014

SYNOPTIC HISTORY
A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on 18 August, and traveled westward
for nearly ten days across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea with intermittent and
disorganized shower activity. Once the wave reached the eastern North Pacific basin on 31
August the convection increased, but remained disorganized until the system reached the eastern
North Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on 1 September. A broad low pressure area
formed early on 2 September a couple hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, with most
of the associated thunderstorm activity located to the south and west of the low due to strong
northeasterly wind shear. There was a large area of 30- to 35- kt winds well to the south of the
area of minimum pressure, but these winds were primarily associated with the large-scale flow
and not directly associated with the disturbance. The system began to move toward the northnortheast and despite the strong shear, a well-defined circulation center formed near 0000 UTC
2 September just north of an area of deep convection. Some banding features began to develop
about that time, and it is estimated that a tropical storm formed at 1200 UTC 2 September, about
180 n mi south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. The best track chart of Norberts path
is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The
best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 11.
Initially, the cyclone moved northward away from the ITCZ, and it then encountered a midlevel high pressure system centered over northern Mexico, which forced Norbert to turn westward
for about 12 to 24 hours away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. The eastern Pacific Ocean
was warmer than normal in that region, and the northeasterly shear that was affecting the storm
abated. This resulted in intensification, and is estimated that the cyclone became a hurricane at
0000 UTC 4 September about 250 n mi west of Cabo Corrientes. The hurricane moved toward
the northwest on a track parallel to the Baja California peninsula around the southwestern
periphery of a high pressure system over Mexico, and slowly strengthened for a couple of days.
Norbert quickly intensified around 0000 UTC 6 September, when the hurricane developed
a distinct eye. It is estimated that Norbert reached its peak intensity of 110 kt and a minimum
central pressure of 950 mb at 0600 UTC that day, about 50 n mi west-southwest of Cabo San
Lazaro (cover image). This intensification occurred despite the hurricane was reaching a dry and
stable environment. After that time, Norbert became even more deeply embedded within the dry
and hostile environment and weakened. The decay was quite abrupt while the cyclone continued
northwestward over increasingly cooler waters, and by 0000 UTC 8 September, most of the
convection had dissipated and Norbert became a remnant low. The low became embedded within
1

A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii, can be found on line at
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf. Data for the current years storms are located in the btk directory, while previous
years data are located in the archive directory.

Hurricane NORBERT

a light steering flow and meandered about 200 n mi west of Punta Eugenia for a couple of days
until dissipating by 0600 UTC 11 September.

METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS
Observations in Hurricane Norbert (Figs. 2 and 3) include subjective satellite-based
Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and
the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), and objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimates
from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies/University of WisconsinMadison. Data and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites including the Advanced
Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the
European Space Agencys Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), and Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others, were also useful in constructing the best track
of Hurricane Norbert. In addition, the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air
Force Reserve Command flew into Norbert on 4 and 5 September. Observations from these
flights were crucial in determining the structure and strength of the cyclone. During the mission
on 4 September, the inner core of the hurricane was not well organized and the reconnaissance
plane did not report an eyewall feature. During the mission the following day, the crew reported a
circular eye of 30 n mi in diameter. The flight-level winds, however, increased only by 10 kt
between the two flights. The estimated peak intensity of Norbert of 110 kt is based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications and objective ADT estimates of 115 kt.
Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Hurricane Norbert are given
in Table 2.

CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS

Press reports indicate that Norbert caused three casualties2 in Mexico after individuals
were swept away by swollen creeks from heavy rainfalls in the Baja California peninsula. Heavy
rains also occurred over western Mexico from Norberts outer bands (Fig 4). Although the core of
the hurricane was over the ocean, media reports indicated that rains and high surf produced by
Norbert damaged more than 1000 homes. The high surf and waves broke a retention wall and
flooded the fishing village of Puerto San Carlos in Baja California. In Mazatlan, Sinaloa on the
west coast of mainland Mexico, waves destroyed a portion of the seawall (Fig. 5).

2
Deaths occurring as a direct result of the forces of the tropical cyclone are referred to as direct deaths.
These would include those persons who drowned in storm surge, rough seas, rip currents, and freshwater
floods. Direct deaths also include casualties resulting from lightning and wind-related events (e.g.,
collapsing structures). Deaths occurring from such factors as heart attacks, house fires, electrocutions from
downed power lines, vehicle accidents on wet roads, etc., are considered indirect deaths.

Hurricane NORBERT

Moisture flowing northward from Hurricane Norbert and Atlantic Tropical Storm Dolly
resulted in heavy rains in the southwestern United States, although neither tropical cyclone
affected the area directly. Phoenix, Arizona received 3.29 inches of rain in 7 hours.

FORECAST AND WARNING CRITIQUE

Table 3 displays how far in advance of formation the NHC official genesis forecasts first
reached the indicated likelihood categories. The genesis of Norbert was poorly forecast,
especially in the short range, with no high probability (>50 %) forecast prior to genesis. Only 12 h
of lead time in the medium (30 - 50%) category was provided. The official forecasts were
influenced by satellite data that indicated stronger than normal northeasterly wind shear over the
disturbance, with conditions seemingly only marginal for tropical cyclone formation.
A verification of NHC official track forecasts for Norbert is given in Table 4a. Official
forecast track errors were much lower than the mean official errors for the previous 5-yr period. A
homogeneous comparison of the official track errors with selected guidance models is given in
Table 4b. In general, the multi-model consensus TVCE and the Florida State Superensemble
FSSE performed better than any other model and better than the NHC forecast from 12 to 72 h.
After that time, several models had lower errors than the NHC forecast.
A verification of NHC official intensity forecasts for Norbert is given in Table 5a. With the
exception of the 5-day forecast, the official errors were greater than the mean official errors for
the previous 5-yr period. A homogeneous comparison of the official intensity errors with selected
guidance models is given in Table 5b. Since the hurricane was approaching a hostile
environment, the abrupt intensification that occurred late on 5 and 6 September was unexpected.
In fact, the SHIPS model rapid intensification index (RI) had been gradually diminishing in the
previous few runs. In addition, most of the intensity guidance at that time suggested that Norbert
had already reached its peak intensity.
Watches and warnings associated with Norbert are
given in Table 6.

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 1.

Best track for Hurricane Norbert, 2-8 September 2014.

Date/Time
(UTC)

Latitude
(N)

Longitude
(W)

Pressure
(mb)

Wind
Speed (kt)

Stage

02 / 1200

17.0

106.5

1004

35

tropical storm

02 / 1800

18.0

106.4

1004

35

"

03 / 0000

18.9

106.7

1003

40

"

03 / 0600

19.4

107.3

1001

45

"

03 / 1200

19.5

108.1

995

55

"

03 / 1800

19.5

108.9

989

60

"

04 / 0000

19.7

109.3

985

65

hurricane

04 / 0600

20.1

109.8

982

70

"

04 / 1200

20.4

110.2

978

75

"

04 / 1800

20.9

110.6

970

80

"

05 / 0000

21.5

110.8

970

80

"

05 / 0600

22.1

111.1

970

80

"

05 / 1200

22.8

111.6

970

80

"

05 / 1800

23.5

112.0

966

80

"

06 / 0000

24.0

112.6

961

95

"

06 / 0600

24.4

113.1

950

110

"

06 / 1200

24.8

113.8

960

100

"

06 / 1800

25.1

114.5

965

90

"

07 / 0000

25.3

115.1

973

80

"

07 / 0600

25.6

116.0

979

70

"

07 / 1200

25.9

116.7

991

55

tropical storm

07 / 1800

26.3

117.3

997

45

"

08 / 0000

26.8

117.7

1000

40

low

08 / 0600

27.2

118.1

1001

35

"

08 / 1200

27.5

118.5

1002

30

"

08 / 1800

27.9

118.6

1003

30

"

09 / 0000

28.5

118.5

1004

25

"

09 / 0600

29.0

118.4

1006

20

"

09 / 1200

28.8

118.2

1006

20

"

09 / 1800

28.4

118.2

1007

20

"

Hurricane NORBERT

10 / 0000

28.1

118.0

1008

20

"

10 / 0600

27.9

117.6

1008

20

"

10 / 1200

27.6

117.5

1009

20

"

10 / 1800

27.2

117.6

1010

20

"

11 / 0000

26.9

117.7

1010

20

"

11 / 0600
06 / 0600

dissipated
24.4

113.1

950

110

minimum pressure

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 2.

Date/Time
(UTC)

Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Hurricane Norbert, 2-8
September 2014.
Ship call
sign

Latitude

Longitude

Wind

Pressure

(N)

(W)

dir/speed (kt)

(mb)

04 / 1200

A8KY7

20.1

106.8

170 / 38

1003.0

05 / 0200

C6ZI9

19.2

111.0

250 / 35

1009.0

05 / 0500

C6ZI9

19.0

110.4

230 / 36

1011.0

Table 3.

Number of hours in advance of formation associated with the first NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook forecast in the indicated likelihood category. Note that the
timings for the Low category do not include forecasts of a 0% chance of genesis.

Hours Before Genesis

48-Hour Outlook

120-Hour Outlook

Low (<30%)

42

66

Medium (30%-50%)

12

48

High (>50%)

36

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 4a.

NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) track

forecast errors (n mi) for Norbert. Mean errors for the previous 5-yr period are
shown for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the 5-yr means are
shown in boldface type.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

17.9

27.7

33.2

31.1

34.2

68.2

145.6

OCD5

30.0

85.2

135.8

169.1

196.0

255.5

502.9

Forecasts

20

18

16

14

10

OFCL (2009-13)

25.7

41.4

55.0

68.6

97.8

134.2

167.1

OCD5 (2009-13)

37.2

74.8

118.0

162.5

249.4

332.6

413.3

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 4b.

Homogeneous comparison of selected track forecast guidance models (in n mi)

for Norbert Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface
type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller than
that shown in Table 4a due to the homogeneity requirement.
Forecast Period (h)

Model ID
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

17.4

27.8

33.2

29.2

32.9

53.3

140.6

OCD5

37.8

85.2

128.6

160.8

176.7

215.2

454.7

GFSI

22.5

34.6

47.6

63.9

88.6

80.0

245.0

GHMI

20.1

34.1

44.9

54.4

139.6

251.6

161.6

HWFI

18.3

32.7

44.3

48.8

51.9

63.2

60.4

EGRI

24.0

28.2

34.8

47.4

103.7

166.9

310.9

EMXI

25.5

40.9

46.4

41.5

38.2

67.6

138.5

CMCI

23.9

31.9

37.5

48.0

92.5

139.9

147.6

NVGI

31.5

48.3

65.4

90.6

145.0

168.3

228.0

GFNI

26.0

46.4

62.3

77.5

87.0

91.2

161.5

AEMI

23.3

35.5

46.6

57.6

61.7

39.3

110.2

FSSE

15.2

25.2

31.4

31.7

27.4

48.4

139.0

TVCE

16.7

21.4

26.6

28.3

34.4

54.8

164.3

LBAR

25.6

56.1

85.9

117.6

166.4

189.5

156.1

BAMD

28.4

50.6

69.8

85.0

103.5

86.0

12.3

BAMM

29.0

52.7

74.2

84.1

79.8

64.1

40.3

BAMS

27.4

46.9

61.8

75.0

84.6

84.2

130.7

Forecasts

15

14

13

11

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 5a.

10

NHC official (OFCL) and climatology-persistence skill baseline (OCD5) intensity

forecast errors (kt) for Norbert. Mean errors for the previous 5-yr period are shown
for comparison. Official errors that are smaller than the 5-yr means are shown in
boldface type.
Forecast Period (h)
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

6.3

11.7

15.9

18.6

24.0

23.3

12.5

OCD5

8.9

17.4

23.6

28.9

35.1

37.7

23.0

Forecasts

20

18

16

14

10

OFCL (2009-13)

6.1

10.4

13.4

14.5

15.0

16.4

16.1

OCD5 (2009-13)

7.7

12.7

16.4

18.8

20.5

20.3

20.8

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 5b.

11

Homogeneous comparison of selected intensity forecast guidance models (in kt)

for Norbert. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in boldface
type. The number of official forecasts shown here will generally be smaller than
that shown in Table 5a due to the homogeneity requirement.
Forecast Period (h)

Model ID
12

24

36

48

72

96

120

OFCL

6.6

11.8

16.0

18.1

23.3

17.0

10.0

OCD5

9.4

17.2

22.7

27.4

33.1

30.6

18.0

IVCN

7.3

14.6

20.1

22.8

28.4

22.2

6.0

LGEM

7.5

13.2

18.9

21.8

30.6

25.6

14.0

DSHP

6.7

10.8

14.3

18.2

29.1

24.8

9.0

GHMI

10.5

20.8

27.3

30.0

33.8

32.0

11.0

HWFI

8.7

16.6

22.3

23.2

23.1

12.6

9.0

GFNI

8.0

12.9

16.2

18.8

24.0

13.4

28.0

FSSE

6.5

11.4

16.5

22.3

27.3

20.0

9.0

Forecasts

19

17

15

13

Hurricane NORBERT

Table 6.

Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Norbert, 2-8 September 2014.

Date/Time
(UTC)

Action

Location

2 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

La Paz to Santa Fe

3 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed to

Tropical Storm Warning

La Paz to Santa Fe

3 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

3 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch issued

La Paz to San Evaristo

4 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch modified to

Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San

Andresito

4 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

La Paz to Cabo San Lazaro

4 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch modified to

Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos

4 / 2100

Tropical Storm Watch modified to

La Paz to Loreto

5 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch changed to

Tropical Storm Warning

Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lazaro

5 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch modified to

San Evaristo to Loreto

5 / 0300

Tropical Storm Watch issued

Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos

5 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lazaro

5 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning issued

San Evaristo to Santa Fe

5 / 0300

Hurricane Warning issued

Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro

5 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch discontinued

Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos

5 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro

6 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

San Evaristo to La Paz

6 / 0900

Tropical Storm Watch changed to

Tropical Storm Warning

San Evaristo to Loreto

6 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

San Evaristo to Loreto

12

Hurricane NORBERT

6 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia

6 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia

6 / 0900

Hurricane Warning discontinued

All

6 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Puerto San Andresito to Punta

Eugenia

6 / 2100

Tropical Storm Warning

discontinued

San Evaristo to Loreto

7 / 0300

Tropical Storm Warning modified to

Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia

7 / 0900

Tropical Storm Warning

discontinued

All

13

Hurricane NORBERT

Figure 1.

Best track positions for Hurricane Norbert, 2-8 September 2014.

14

Hurricane NORBERT

120

Hurricane Norbert
2-8 September 2014

110
100

BEST TRACK
Sat (TAFB)

90

Wind Speed (kt)

15

Sat (SAB)

80

ADT

70

AC (sfc)
AC (flt->sfc)

60

AC (DVK P->W)
Scatterometer

50

Surface
AMSU

40
30
20
10
8/31

9/2

9/4

9/6

9/8

9/10

9/12

Date (Month/Day)

Figure 2.

Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Norbert, 2-8 September
2014. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and 80% adjustment factors for observations
from 700 mb, 850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates represent the Current Intensity at the
nominal observation time. AMSU intensity estimates are from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
technique. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.

Hurricane NORBERT

16

1020
1010

Pressure (mb)

1000
990
980

BEST TRACK
KZC P-W
Sat (TAFB)
Sat (SAB)
ADT
AMSU
AC (sfc)
Surface

970
960
950
940
9/1

Hurricane Norbert
2 - 8 September 2014

9/3

9/5

9/7

9/9

9/11

Date (Month/Day)

Figure 3.

Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for name/dates. Advanced Dvorak Technique
estimates represent the Current Intensity at the nominal observation time. AMSU intensity estimates are from the Cooperative
Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies technique. KZC P-W refers to pressure estimates derived using the Knaff-ZehrCourtney pressure-wind relationship. Dashed vertical lines correspond to 0000 UTC.

17

LATITUDE

Hurricane NORBERT

Figure 4.

LONGITUDE
Rainfall totals in mm occurring over Mexico and Baja California peninsula during the period from 2 to 8 September associated
with Norbert. The large area of rainfall over northeastern Mexico was associated with Tropical Storm Dolly. Figure provided by
the Mexican Weather Service (CONAGUA).

Hurricane NORBERT

Figure. 5

18

Impact of high waves associated with Hurricane Norbert in the port of Mazatlan, Mexico. Photo provided by the University of
Guadalajara, Mexico.