Evolution of GDP, Final Consumption and Net Investment in Romania During 1998-2011
Evolution of GDP, Final Consumption and Net Investment in Romania During 1998-2011
(0.099731)
R-squared = 0.988909
DW = 0.498544
(0.5634)
(0.284958)
(0.595763)
(0.0000)
From the above, multiple regression model describing the relationship between the three macroeconomic
indicators that are the subject of previously determined may be given in the form of equation as follows:
PIB = -8.927,569 + 1,165488 CF + 0,284958 INV Thus, we can say that an increasing with a monetary
unit of final consumption (with its two component - private consumption and public consumption) will
lead to an increase of 1.165488 units monetary of gross domestic product value. In case of the net
investment, the difference is more significant, we can see that every dollar invested brings an increase of
only 0.284958 dollar of the level of gross domestic product. This situation corresponds with the reality
economics of Romania because in the last twenty years the Romanian economy was based almost
exclusively on stimulating consumption and less on promotion of an investment policy correctly. The
influence of the free term as a picture of the factors that were not included in the analysis model is one
significant. In fact, it can be said, that the factors that were not included in the econometric model of
analysis, they have an significant decrease in the value of gross domestic product. The probability for this
model to be correct is very high - about 98.89%, this conclusion can be formulated on the basis of
statistical tests R-squared (0.988909) and Adjusted R-squared (0.986892).
Also the validity of the regression model is confirmed by the F test value - statistically superior value
table level that is considered to be the benchmark in the analysis of the validity of econometric models
and by the value of the test Prob (F - statistic) that it is zero. Based on observations made on the analysis
of Romania's GDP, using multiple regression model, we conclude that the value of this indicator is
significantly influenced by the variation of final consumption and net investment less variation.