(PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT) AACE International Recommended Practice No.

32R-04

DETERMINING ACTIVITY DURATIONS

TCM Framework: 7.2 Schedule Planning and Development

January 27, 2009

INTRODUCTION
Purpose
This Recommended Practice for Determining Activity Durations is intended to provide a guideline and
a resource, not to establish a standard. As a recommended practice of AACE International, Determining
Activity Durations provides guidelines for the project scheduler to determine schedule activity durations
and understand the limitations and assumptions involved in such determination as part of the Total Cost
Management (TCM) project planning, scheduling forecasting, and change management processes
(7.2.2.4).
This Recommended Practice (RP) provides information about determining the original durations for
activities for developing the project schedule and general considerations related to the establishment of
remaining durations while updating the project schedule. Specific considerations regarding the topic of
establishing the activities remaining durations will be further discussed in the P&S recommended practice
regarding schedule performance and forecasting schedule status. Therefore the information presented
generally applies to determining activity original durations and only when deem appropriate general
considerations for the establishment of remaining durations will be provided.
Overview
Many methods have been used to determine schedule activity duration estimates; the number of
continuous work periods required to complete an activity. Of the original network systems, Critical Path
Management (C.P.M.,) being a deterministic network model, uses a single duration estimate; whereas
Performance Evaluation and Review technique (P.E.R.T.,) being a probabilistic or stochastic network
model, uses three duration estimates. Nevertheless, in either of those systems the activity duration is still
an estimate of the continuous time (in work-units) required to perform the work of an activity. This
estimate normally takes into consideration the nature of the work and the resources needed to complete
an activity. But it can also take into consideration productivity impacts and nonstandard production rates
needed to meet the constraints of a project.
Those duration estimates were made through the comparison of actual data with anticipated
performance, and an effective analysis of constraints on activity duration. Accurately estimating activity
durations is essential to developing schedules for which project milestones and completion dates can
realistically be achieved. It is important to estimate durations that are realistic given the work to be done,
the resources to be made available and other influences and constraints on performance.
Two performance areas are considered when estimating an activitys duration: past performance and
expected future performance. From past performance we can review actual durations of similar activities
completed in the past and apply professional judgment for anticipated future performance. This
establishes a basis for determining an activitys duration, but does not consider constraints that may keep
the activity from being completed within the planned time frame. There will be some activities for which
there is no past performance (e.g., in aerospace, software, new technology or work not performed in
recent years) to rely upon. If the organization does not have experience in the work there may be
industrial databases of others experience to draw from.
Determining realistic original durations for schedule activities is essential for proper schedule
development. There is always a chance that pre-set project milestone dates are not achievable given the
scope of work to be performed and the resources made available. Duration realism should be preferred

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to the achievement of project milestone dates even if the dates derived from the time estimates do not
meet project requirements. If the milestone dates are not in-line with project requirements, the
professional scheduler should not reduce durations to fit the dates unless given more resources, less
scope or some realistic alternative approach that will achieve the desired result. This recommended
practice offers methods for determining activity original durations through the analysis of past project data
with anticipated future performance data. It also incorporates an iterative effect-analysis of constraints on
activity duration.
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE
General guidelines for estimating a schedule activitys duration:
1. Duration = Quantity of work / units per time period.
Quantity of work is a function of the definition or scope of the activity. Units per time period is
commonly referred to as the production rate.
2. Duration is specified only in rounded continuous working time periods in the unit common to the
activity, i.e. hours, days, weeks, years, etc. Rounding is normally up, even when the estimated
duration is less than a work unit. E.g. Estimated duration calculates to 1.25 work days, this is
rounded up to 2 work days.
3. Duration is estimated using an analytical and systematic method and not just guess work.
4. Activity or resource calendars are used to model constraints related to a particular time (e.g., winter,
dry, wet seasons) so that the effect on activity duration does not persist if the activity slips into or out
of the affected period. Hence, if a projects start date slips 6 months, an activity originally scheduled
in the summer now occurs in the winter, calendars used to model this effect upon duration does not
need to be manually adjusted.
5. Basis of activity duration estimates are identified as part of the overall schedule basis documentation.
This RP has been organized as follows:

Phase I Determine Unconstrained Activity durations

Phase II Adjust Activity Duration Based on Constraint Impact
Phase III Revise Activity Original durations to Meet Project Requirements
Determining Activity Duration - Flowcharts

Phase I Determine Unconstrained Activity durations

1. The approved project (baseline) estimate can be used to determine unconstrained original
durations. For details concerning this process, please refer to the supplemental calculations
section of this recommended practice.
2. Historical data consists of actual duration data and can be used to get an idea of how long an
activity may take in the future. For example, historical project data provides that for a particular
activity:
Project Name

Completed Activity

Completed Project 1
Completed Project 2

Issue Purchase Req.

Issue Purchase Req.

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Actual
(Days)
10
5

Duration

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Completed Project 3
Completed Project 4

Issue Purchase Req.

Issue Purchase Req.

8
6

Assume that these original activity durations are normally distributed, to compute a
confidence interval on the mean duration. This is better than just taking an average since
it gives a range of values instead of a single number. Details on calculating confidence
intervals can be found in many texts. The confidence interval for the above example
would be roughly 7 Days 2
Days. This means that the next duration could be
anywhere from 5 to 9 days. This calculation gives the shortest and longest probable
activity original durations based on historical data.
3. Professional judgment may be used to help determine an activitys estimated duration. Often,
key project team members can provide their experience related to particular types of work
activities. Their knowledge may reveal that doing work in certain geographical areas or under
specific climatic conditions generally takes shorter or longer than anticipated. Utilizing the opinion
of an experienced professional helps identify known working restrictions to consider when
assigning original durations to those activities.
Phase II Adjust Activity Duration Based on Constraint Impact
Once a well thought out and developed plan has been prepared using the unconstraint activity durations
determined on phase 1, and the scheduler has understood the dynamics the effect of activity durations
have on the plan as a whole, then it should proceed to consider any effects that constraints (i.e. site,
location, seasons, etc.) might have on the activity durations.
The impact of constraints on activity duration must be considered and accounted for when estimating
activity duration. Some constraints may only affect certain activities and not others. The proposed
method suggests creating a list of possible constraints. The list should include any known or anticipated
constraint that could adversely affect activity duration. The list should then be cross referenced against
each activity to determine if the constraint could potentially affect that particular activity. Factors to
consider include:
Resource availability
Factors affecting productivity
Nature of the work / scope of work
Labor & Equipment productivity (means and methods) planned
Management Skill / Constraints
Material & Equipment availability
Seasonal / Location considerations
Work Restrictions (Union vs. Non-Union, Work rules & constraints, etc.)
Quality of Work (contract specifications requirements)
Subcontractor & Vendor considerations
Engineering deliverables / Client, Third-Party influences and deliverables
Fast Tracking / Concurrency of work
If the constraint has the potential to affect an activity, the scheduler should create a calendar that takes
into consideration the constraints that affect any of the activity resources or the activity scope per se. Not
all constraints can be modeled through resource and activity calendars. In such instances, it is critical to
fully document all assumptions and activity duration modifications.
An example of a constraint might be equipment availability. Suppose a portion of a project includes
machining secondary parts on an existing milling machine during the month of January. It is also known
that January is generally a high production time and that the milling machine generally runs high priority
parts during this period. Since we may not be able to run all of our parts at once, assign a calendar to the
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resources or the activities associated with this section of the work. As a side note, the scheduler might
also consider rescheduling these activities during a less busy production time.
Phase III Revise Activity Original Durations to Meet Project Requirements
Once realistic (most likely) original durations (whether constrained or unconstrained) are determined for
each activity, the scheduler must examine whether project requirements or milestones can be met as
modeled. A project requirements list is developed. This list contains all milestone dates that must be met
in order for the project team to achieve success. These requirements may include customer incentives
based on good performance or required completion dates of deliverables. These milestones might be the
original ones or those of a current forecast to complete.
If all project requirements and milestones are met, the schedule is ready for final project team review and
approval. However, if certain activities prevent the project from achieving required milestone dates, the
scheduler should identify the (realistic / achievable) actions needed to allow durations to be reduced so
that these important dates may be met. Such actions may be to reduce scope, add resources or
schedule activities in parallel. If that is necessary to accomplish milestone dates, create a corrective
action list that contains all feasible actions that may be used to decrease an activitys duration. Activity
durations should not be reduced unless management approves these required actions. To be specific,
activity durations should not be reduced just to meet owner / contractual constraints, but recommend what
is needed to allow the durations to be shortened realistically. An example of a corrective action might be
to parallel similar work activities or an increased crew size that could potentially reduce the time required
for completing an activity.
The scheduler is advised to analyze activities in the critical path(s), near-critical path(s) and large float
path(s) and determined how those activities off the critical path(s) may be interrupted to allow for orderly
crew resource flow to meet the requirements of the project requirements without large swings in required
resources.
Determining Activity Duration - Flowcharts
The following flowcharts identify methods for determining an activitys duration. Phase I
determines an activitys unconstrained duration. Phase II adjusts the duration based on
estimated constraint impact. Phase III revises an activitys duration to meet project
requirements or milestones.

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ARTICLE I.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO CONSIDER

Calculating remaining durations

The phases delineated in this RP also apply to the process of establishing remaining durations when
updating a schedule or preparing a forecast or schedule to complete. Previous periods data shall be
evaluated to establish patterns in activities durations. If no other information is available to the scheduler
one alternative is to use a variation to the Blinders Method [2]. This method assumes a straight line
progress.
i. IF: data date (DD) - actual start of the activity (AS) < original duration (OD), THEN: remaining duration
(RD) = OD - (DD - AS)
ii.

IF: DD - AS > OD, THEN: RD = 1

iii. If an AS date is missing and a valid actual finish of the activity (AF) date is given, remaining durations
and percent completes are ignored and the activity (revised) duration is determined on the basis of the AF
and the specified duration.
iv. If AS and AF dates are missing the activity (revised) duration is determined on the basis of the
remaining duration and percent complete.
Duration relation with start and finish dates
The following conventions usually apply when either actual start (AS) and/or finish (AF) dates are
specified for an activity:
i. If both AS and AF dates are specified, the activity (revised) duration is computed as the time
period, between the AS and the AF, excluding non working periods.
ii. If AS is specified without an AF the activity (revised) duration is computed as the sum of the elapsed
duration and the remaining duration.
iii. If AS is specified and both an AF and an RD are missing the activity (revised) duration is computed on
the basis of the elapsed duration and the percent complete.
iv. If AS is specified and AF, remaining duration or percent complete are not specified, the activity
duration is not revised.
v. If the time elapse between the AS and the time now is greater than or equal to the duration of the
activity, the activity is assume to have finished at the appropriate time.
Risk and activity duration variability
Several alternatives have been devised to take into consideration risk when determining the activity
duration. As mentioned at the beginning of this RP in the P.E.R.T. is a probabilistic or stochastic network
model that uses three duration estimates; variations to the three point estimate have been derived using
weighted average for triangular and beta distributions. For example:
i.

Weighted average using a triangular distribution

Duration = (Optimistic Duration + Most Likely Duration + Pessimistic Duration)/3

ii.

Weighted average using a beta distribution

Duration = (Optimistic Duration + 4*Most Likely Duration + Pessimistic Duration)/6

For further information the reader is referred to several of the AACEI publications and discussions on
schedule risk analysis.

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Contract / Scheduling Specifications Requirements
Contract scheduling specifications sometimes require artificial constraints that pre-determine
duration limits, minimum or maximum values for an activity duration.
Software Issues
Not all software uses the same scheduling algorithm so the Scheduler should expect different
results from different software.For further information about such considerations see AACE
International Recommended Practice No. 29R-03 FORENSIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS.
5.1 Duration Calculation
5.1.a

Continuous Activity Duration

5.1.b

Interruptible Activity Duration

AREAS NOT COVERED IN THIS RECOMMENDED PRACTICE

At the time this RP was developed, several related RPs are being work by others. Therefore
areas that might need to be revisited or developed once the other RPs are finally published.
Execution Plan and Resources
Explain relationship of how activity original durations are defined or shaped by an execution plan.
Resources
Explain how resources utilization planned to execute the work will affect activity durations.
Schedule Basis Documentation
When schedule basis documentation is published, incorporate either explicitly or by reference
how the schedule basis documentation for the assumptions, estimates approach, variability and
risk, etc., of activity durations will be performed.
Schedule and estimate
Explain the relation of the project cost estimate with the determination of activity durations and
how the schedule and estimate link or tie is to be documented.
Contingency
Normally original activity durations do not have a contingency included; nevertheless if individual
or global contingencies are applied they are thoroughly documented.
Work Breakdown Structure
Activity duration linkage to the work breakdown structure.
Updates or Acceleration
Need to address activity durations when updating a schedule for progress or if there is a need to
accelerate or crash original durations.
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SUPPLEMENTAL CALCULATIONS
Calculating Original durations using the Approved Estimate
The estimate can be used as a basis for determining an activitys original duration. The estimate does not
provide the production rate or the amount of work required for each activity; therefore, it is necessary to
ensure that the proper resources, and corresponding quantities, are assigned to each activity. This is the
first step in using the estimate as a basis for the original activity duration. Based on input from the project
team, the following example table can be created:

Design WBS

(Figure 1)

Activity 1

Estimated
Hrs
to
Complete

Crew Size

Resource 1 - Civil Eng

Resource 2 - Mechanical Eng
Resource 3 Environmental Eng

20
100
10

1
2
1

Activity 2

Estimated
Hrs
to
Complete

Crew Size

Resource 1 - Civil Eng

Resource 2 - Mechanical Eng
Resource 3 - Environmental Eng

30
50
45

2
1
1

Once this table has been created for each activity the duration can be estimated for the activities
using the following formula:

R1 Total Hrs for activity

(Estimated Workday in Hrs) (R1 Workload Factor)

Duration
R1 Crew Size for activity

R 2 Total Hours for activity

R 2 Crew Size for activity

(Estimated Workday in Hrs) (R 2 Workload Factor)

Rn Total Hours for activity

Rn Crew Size for activity

(Estimated Workday in Hrs) (R

Where,
R1, R2...Rn = the resources needed to complete each portion of an activity.
Crew Size = the number of each resource used to complete the activity.

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Workload Factor = Reflects workload of each resource. Higher workload factors indicate less
productivity and longer activity original durations.
Using the model described the following table can be obtained.
Assumptions for the model are:

Each resource (R1, R2, R3,etc.) work only on their portion of the activity (no cross-trained
resources)
Resources DO NOT work in parallel to accomplish the work
The schedule logic is correct.

Design WBS

Activity 1

Estimated
Hrs
to
Complete

Crew
Size

Duration
(Days)

Workload
Factor
(number of units)

New
Duration
(Days)

Resource 1 - Civil Eng

Resource 2 Mech. Eng
Resource 3 - Env. Eng

20
100
10

1
2
1

2.5
6.25
1.25

2.0
3.0
2.0
Activity Duration

5
18.75
2.5
26.25

Activity 2

Estimated
Hrs
to
Complete

Crew
Size

Duration
(Days)

Workload
Factor
(number of units)

New
Duration
(Days)

Resource 1 - Civil Eng

Resource 2 Mech. Eng
Resource 3 - Env. Eng

40
60
40

2
1
1

2.5
7.5
5.0

2.0
3.0
2.0
Activity Duration

5.0
22.5
10.0
37.5

For resources working in parallel the MAXIMUM duration calculated between resources would be used.
For example, the total duration for Activity 1 would be nineteen (18.75 rounded) days instead of twentytwo (26.25) days. Activity 2 would be twenty-three (22.5 days rounded) rather than thirty-eight days (37.5
days rounded).
While this model provides a way to determine activity original durations, it should not be used as the sole
basis for deciding original durations. As the flowchart shows, all data should be merged to make a
decision on an activitys duration. By using more than one approach to determine original durations, the
scheduler can get a much better idea of how the work will be performed. Ultimately this results in a
project schedule which has a greater opportunity for successful completion.
TERMS, ACRONYMS AND DEFINITIONS
Note: Upon acceptance of this RP, these terms and definition will be removed and incorporated
into AACEs Recommended Practice 10S-90 Cost Engineering Terminology
Workload Factor - The amount of work assigned to or expected from a worker during a specified time
period expressed as a multiplier of the standard crews productivity with 1.0 equal to the same
productivity and 2.0 equal to one half of the standard productivity.

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SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER INCLUDING FORMAL DEFINTIONS FOR:

WORK DAY
Activity Duration
Calendar

REFERENCES
1. AACE International, Recommended Practice No. 10S-90, Cost Engineering Terminology, AACE
International, Morgantown, WV, (latest revision).
2. AACE International Recommended Practice No. 29R-03 Forensic Schedule Analysis, (Section 2.3
Schedule Updates: Validation, Rectification, and Reconstruction (SVP 2.3), D. Special Procedures, b.
Blinders Method, page 27; and Section 4.3 Critical Path and Float, pages 93-94), AACE International,
Morgantown, WV, (latest revision).
3. Thomas E. Glavinich, Construction Planning and Scheduling, The Associated General Contractors of
America, 2nd Edition, 2004.
4. Burman, Peter J, Precedence Networks for Project Planning and Control, (Chapter 7 Estimates of
Duration, pages 73-85), Reprinted in USA by Blitz Publishing Company with permission from
McGraw-Hill Book Company (UK) Limited and the author, 1980.
5. Hollmann, John K., Editor, Total Cost Management Framework: An Integrated Approach to Portfolio,
Program, and Project Management, (Chapter 7.2 Schedule Planning and Development), AACE
International, Morgantown WV, 2006.
CONTRIBUTORS
Rey F. Diaz, PE (Author)
Edward E. Douglas, III CCC PSP
Donald F. McDonald, Jr. PE CCE PSP
Dr. David T. Hulett

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