DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

Chapter 10: Moderation, mediation and more

regression
Labcoat Lenis Real Research
I heard that Jane has a boil and kissed a tramp
Problem
Massar, K.., et al. (2012). Personality and Individual Differences, 52, 106109.

Everyone likes a good gossip from time to time, but apparently it has an
evolutionary function. One school of thought is that gossip is used a way to
derogate sexual competitors especially by questioning their appearance
and sexual behaviour. For example, if youve got your eyes on a guy, but he
has his eyes on Jane, then a good strategy is to spread gossip that Jane has
a massive pus-oozing boil on her stomach and that she kissed a smelly
vagrant called Aqualung. Apparently men rate gossiped-about women as less
attractive, and they are more influenced by the gossip if it came from a woman with a high
mate value (i.e., attractive and sexually desirable). Karlijn Massar and her colleagues
hypothesized that if this theory is true then (1) younger women will gossip more because there
is more mate competition at younger ages; and (2) this relationship will be mediated by the
mate value of the person (because for those with high mate value gossiping for the purpose of
sexual competition will be more effective). Eighty-three women aged from 20 to 50 (Age)
completed questionnaire measures of their tendency to gossip (Gossip) and their sexual
desirability (Mate_Value). Test Massar et al.s mediation model using Baron and Kennys
method (as they did) but also using PROCESS to estimate the indirect effect (Massar et
al.(2011).sav).

Solution using Baron and Kennys method

Baron and Kenny suggested that mediation is tested through three regression models:
1. A regression predicting the outcome (Gossip) from the predictor variable (Age).

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

2. A regression predicting the mediator (Mate_Value) from the predictor variable

(Age).
3. A regression predicting the outcome (Gossip) from both the predictor variable
(Age) and the mediator (Mate_Value).
These models test the four conditions of mediation: (1) the predictor variable (Age) must
significantly predict the outcome variable (Gossip) in model 1; (2) the predictor variable (Age)
must significantly predict the mediator (Mate_Value) in model 2; (3) the mediator
(Mate_Value) must significantly predict the outcome (Gossip) variable in model 3; and (4) the
predictor variable (Age) must predict the outcome variable (Gossip) less strongly in model 3
than in model 1.

Output 1: Predicting Gossip from Age

Output indicates that the first condition of mediation was met, in that participant age was
a significant predictor of the tendency to gossip, t(80) = -2.59, p < .05.

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

Output 2: Predicting Mate_Value from Age

Looking at Output 2, we can see that the second condition of mediation was also met, in
that participant age was a significant predictor of mate value, t(79) = -3.67, p < .001.

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

Output 3: Predicting Gossip from Age and Mate_Value

Looking at Output , we can see that the third condition of mediation has been met, in that
mate value significantly predicted the tendency to gossip while controlling for participant age,
t(78) = 3.5, p < .01. Finally, the fourth condition of mediation has also been met, in that the
standardized regression coefficient between participant age and tendency to gossip decreased
substantially when controlling for mate value, t(78) = -1.28, ns. Therefore, we can conclude
that the authors prediction is supported, and the relationship between participant age and
tendency to gossip is mediated by mate value.

Diagram of a mediation model from Massar et al. (2011)

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

Solution using PROCESS

**************************************************************************
Model = 4
Y = Gossip
X = Age
M = Mate_Val
Sample size
81
**************************************************************************
Outcome: Mate_Val
Model Summary
R
.3815

R-sq
.1455

F
13.4522

df1
1.0000

df2
79.0000

p
.0004

Model
constant
Age

coeff
3.7981
-.0266

se
.2366
.0073

t
16.0558
-3.6677

p
.0000
.0004

Output 4

Looking at Output , we can see that age significantly predicts mate value, b = -0.03, t = -3.67,
p = .000. The R2 value tells us that age explains 14.6% of the variance in mate value, and the

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

fact that the b is negative tells us that the relationship is negative also: as age increases, mate
value declines (and vice versa).
**************************************************************************
Outcome: Gossip
Model Summary
R
.4614
Model
constant
Mate_Val
Age

R-sq
.2129
coeff
1.1963
.4546
-.0113

F
10.5468
se
.5495
.1266
.0088

df1
2.0000
t
2.1771
3.5921
-1.2753

df2
78.0000

p
.0001

p
.0325
.0006
.2060

Output 5

Output shows the results of the regression of tendency to gossip predicted from both age
and mate value. We can see that while age does not significantly predict tendency to gossip
with mate value in the model, b = -0.01, t = -1.28, p = .21, mate value does significantly
predict tendency to gossip, b = 0.45, t = 3.59, p < .01. The R2 value tells us that the model
explains 21.3% of the variance in tendency to gossip. The negative b for age tells us that as age
increases, tendency to gossip declines (and vice versa), but the positive b for mate value
indicates that as mate value increases, tendency to gossip increases also. These relationships
are in the predicted direction.
************************** TOTAL EFFECT MODEL ****************************
Outcome: Gossip
Model Summary
R
.2875

R-sq
.0827

F
7.1180

df1
1.0000

df2
79.0000

p
.0093

Model
constant
Age

coeff
2.9230
-.0234

se
.2855
.0088

t
10.2397
-2.6680

p
.0000
.0093

Output 6

Output shows the total effect of age on tendency to gossip (outcome). You will get this bit
of the output only if you selected Total effect model. The total effect is the effect of the
predictor on the outcome when the mediator is not present in the model. When mate value is
not in the model, age significantly predicts tendency to gossip, b = -0.02, t = -2.67, p = .009.
The R2 value tells us that the model explains 8.27% of the variance in tendency to gossip.
Therefore, when mate value is not included in the model, age has a significant negative
relationship with infidelity (as shown by the negative b value).

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

***************** TOTAL, DIRECT, AND INDIRECT EFFECTS ********************

Total effect of X on Y
Effect
SE
-.0234
.0088

t
-2.6680

p
.0093

Direct effect of X on Y
Effect
SE
-.0113
.0088

t
-1.2753

p
.2060

Indirect effect of X on Y
Effect
Boot SE
Mate_Val
-.0121
.0054

BootLLCI
-.0265

BootULCI
-.0042

Partially standardized indirect effect of X on Y

Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
BootULCI
Mate_Val
-.0122
.0050
-.0244
-.0046
Completely standardized indirect effect of X on Y
Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
BootULCI
Mate_Val
-.1489
.0611
-.3051
-.0560
Ratio of indirect to total effect of X on Y
Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
BootULCI
Mate_Val
.5179
.9803
.1707
1.5546
Ratio of indirect to direct effect of X on Y
Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
BootULCI
Mate_Val
1.0744
10.6879
-2.4127
51.3575
R-squared mediation effect size (R-sq_med)
Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
Mate_Val
.0662
.0359
.0111

BootULCI
.1569

Preacher and Kelley (2011) Kappa-squared

Effect
Boot SE
BootLLCI
Mate_Val
.1458
.0577
.0574

BootULCI
.2913

Output 7

Output is the most important part of the output because it displays the results for the
indirect effect of age on gossip (i.e., the effect via mate value). First, were told the effect of
age on gossip in isolation (the total effect), and these values replicate the model in Output .
Next, were told the effect of age on gossip when mate value is included as a predictor as well
(the direct effect). These values replicate those in Output . The first bit of new information is
the Indirect effect of X on Y, which in this case is the indirect effect of age on gossip. Were
given an estimate of this effect (b = -0.012) as well as a bootstrapped standard error and
confidence interval. As we have seen many times before, 95% confidence intervals contain the
true value of a parameter in 95% of samples. Therefore, we tend to assume that our sample
isnt one of the 5% that does not contain the true value and use them to infer the population
value of an effect. In this case, assuming our sample is one of the 95% that hits the true value,
we know that the true b-value for the indirect effect falls between -0.027 and -0.004.1 This
range does not include zero (although both values are not much bigger than zero), and
1

Remember that because of the nature of bootstrapping you will get slightly different values in your output.

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD

DISCOVERING STATISTICS USING SPSS

remember that b = 0 would mean no effect whatsoever; therefore, the fact that the
confidence interval does not contain zero means that there is likely to be a genuine indirect
effect. Put another way, mate value is a mediator of the relationship between age and
tendency to gossip.
The rest of Output you will see only if you selected Effect size; it contains various
standardized forms of the indirect effect. In each case they are accompanied by a
bootstrapped confidence interval. We discussed these measures of effect size in Section 10.4.3
in the book, and rather than interpret them all Ill note that for each one you get an estimate
along with a confidence interval based on a bootstrapped standard error. As with the
unstandardized indirect effect, if the confidence intervals dont contain zero then we can be
confident that the true effect size is different from no effect. In other words, there is
mediation. Focusing on the most useful of these effect sizes, the standardized b for the
indirect effect, its value is b = -.149, 95% BCa CI [-.305, -.056], and similarly,
= .146, 95%
BCa CI [.057, .291].
is bounded to fall between 0 and 1, so we can interpret this as the
indirect effect being about 14.6% of the maximum value that it could have been, which for
social science data is a reasonable size.

Normal theory tests for indirect effect

Effect
se
Z
p
-.0121
.0048
-2.5190
.0118

Output 8

The final part of the output (Output ) shows the results of the Sobel test. As I have
mentioned before, it is better to interpret the bootstrap confidence intervals than formal tests
of significance; however, if you selected Sobel test this is what you will see. Again, were given
the size of the indirect effect (b = -0.012), the standard error, associated z-score (z = -2.52)
and p-value (p = .012). The p-value is under the not-at-all magic .05 threshold, so wed
conclude that there is a significant indirect effect. In other words, younger women have a
higher tendency to gossip than older women, but this elevated tendency can be attributed to
their higher mate value.

PROFESSOR ANDY P FIELD