Energy

Security
Notes

Overview
Energy

In science it is the capacity to do work

Takes various forms and it vital to human survival and
development
As societies become more sophisticated they consume more
energy and exploit a wider range of energy types
The consumption patterns in the various sectors will change

Security

A secure energy supply is crucial to human wellbeing

Considerable environmental costs in harnessing many forms
of energy global warming
Challenge is to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, cur
greenhouse gas emission and find new, sustainable, sources
of energy

Energy Supply, Demand and Security

To what extent is the world energy secure at
present?
Classifying Energy Sources

Fossil fuels
o Include oil, coal and natural gas
o Can be used or combusted only once
o Can only be replaced over considerable periods of
geological times

o Classified as non-renewable
o During combustion they
produce CO2
Non-renewable
o Finite stock of resources which
will run out
o E.g. fossil fuels
o Significant environmental
impacts during extraction
E.g. oil wells, opencast
mining
o Greenhouse gas emissions
during use and acidic emissions
Renewable sources
o Provide continuous flows of energy
o Include wind, solar, hydroelectric,
wave, tidal and geothermal
o Environmental impacts
May require large areas
for
operation (solar arrays, wind farms)
NIMBY issues
Recyclable
o Can be used repeatedly if managed carefully
o Biomass, nuclear
o Environmental impacts
Biofuels can lead to the over use of land and this
can lead to desertification and eutrophication, as
well as extreme use of pesticides
Nuclear waste can cause possible radioactive
effects
Nuclear explosions can have detrimental
environmental effects e.g. in Chernobyl

Access to Energy Sources

As families become richer they

can afford more modern
appliances
Factors that control the transition
from traditional to modern energy
use
o Energy availability
In many parts of
the world modern
types of energy are
either not available or
remain inaccessible
o Energy affordability
Modern forms of
energy may be a
lot more expensive
than traditional
sources
o Cultural preferences
Tradition often slows that
adoption of more
modern energy sources
Climate
o Level of consumption is influenced by the climate
o Hot climate means air conditioning, cold means heating
Global availability of energy resources
o Not distributed evenly around the world
o Access to, and consumption of, energy resources is not
evenly distributed
1.4 of the world population have no access to
electricity with 80% of these people living in rural
areas
2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass
(wood) for cooking heating
In rural sub-Saharan Africa, many women carry
20kg of fuel wood an average of 5km/day
Energy poverty keeps people poor by limiting
womens ability to go to school earn an income
o Depends on
Geology
Physical geography
Available technology
Costs of exploitation
Energy
Proven reserves
Regions

Resource
(Nonrenewable)

with
richest
reserves
1987

1997

Oil (thousand
million
barrels)

910

1069

1239

Gas (trillion
m3)

106

146

177

Coal (million
tonnes)

Energy
Resources
(Renewable)
Nuclear
(million
tonnes oil
equivalent)

2007

847,488

Middle
east and
Africa
Middle
east,
Europe
and
Eurasia
North
America,
Pacific,
Europe
and
Eurasia

Consumption

Europe,
Eurasia
541
622
and North
America
Europe,
Hydroelectrici
Eurasia,
ty (million
North
588
709
tonnes oil
America
equivalent)
and Asiapacific
If a country has energy resources does this mean it can
sustain the fuel needs of its population?
o Costs in terms of processing
o Extremely high demand
o Energy supplies depend on the balance between
demand (need) and consumption (availability/use of
energy)
o USA is not energy secure as it has greater demands for
fuel than can be fulfilled with its reserves
Big players
o Oil is the most widely used fuel for energy generation
o Middle East remains biggest player despite the search
for new reserves

o Saudi Arabia alone accounts for 22% of worlds proven

resources
o Oil gives the Middle East great political power
o China has great coal reserves and builds the equivalent
of two medium-sized coal-fired power stations each
week
o Chinas coal consumption has more than doubled since
1900
o However Chinas now emits more CO2 than the USA
Access to renewables
o Distribution of renewable sources varies at a range of
scales
o Highest potential solar input towards equator but
dependent on cloud cover
o Access to energy resources also varies spatially and
poverty and access to electricity are
related
o Many renewables are intermittent energy
sources,
so energy must be stored or
backed up by another source
o Most renewable energy is
constrained by physical
geography
Wind
Requires wind speeds
of 825 mph
Solar
Works best in
areas of over
6 kwh per sq metre
per day
Biomass
Requires large land area for feedstock
HEP
Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep and relatively
narrow, and predicable water supply

Fuel Poverty
o If demand is
greater than
consumption there
will not be enough
energy for a population
to use which
can lead to
energy
poverty
o 10% of household income is spent on energy prices
E.g. Oxford
7,086 households in fuel poverty, 12%
o LICs as well as HICs but different circumstances
o Generally there is some support financially in HICs
(government intervention)
o 2 billion people dont have access to electricity
Absence of grid electricity systems which
governments cant afford
Rely on kerosene lamps which are
Expensive
Polluting
Unhealthy
Dangerous
2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass for
cooking and heating
In rural sub-Saharan Africa many women carry
20kg of fuel wood about 5km each day
The use of traditional biomass is killing people
2.5 million women and children die from lung
conditions each year
Energy poverty keeps people poor by limiting
womens ability to engage in education and
income-generating activities

Demand for Energy

Sources of demand

o Transport takes nearly half of the

worlds oil production
o Over two thirds of coal production
is used to generate electricity
Rising consumption
o During the 20th century, energy
demand increased tenfold
o By 2050 it is expected to double
and reach an annual level of
around 900 exajoules
o Most
energy demand will
be met by nonrenewable sources,
namely natural gas
and oil
o Forecasts show a
increasingly
significant
contribution by
renewable energies
o Causes
Population growth
Economic development
Rising standards of living
Future trends
o Future increases in energy demand are unlikely to be
even across the globe
o China and India are expected to have the largest rise
o Countries in western Europe may reduce their demands
o Energy consumption in the developing world is expected
to double by 2020
o Only about 1/3 in the developed world

Energy Security

Vital to the functioning of a country

Any country that is self-sufficient in energy resources will be
secure in the sense that it will have the energy needed for its
development
Risks
o Physical
Exhaustion of reserves
Disruption of supply lines by natural hazards
o Environmental
Protests about environmental damage

o Economic
Sudden rises in the cost of energy
Exhaustion of domestic supplies forcing increased
imports of high-priced energy
o Geopolitical
Political instability in energy-producing regions
Disputes or conflict of sovereignty of energy
resources
Disputes over energy transmission by pipelines or
cables
o Sustained growth in demand for energy has led to
serious concerns over the long-term availability of
reliable and affordable supplies
Measuring energy security
o Complex to measure
o Energy security
index (ESI)
Availability
Amount
and

longevity of each countrys domestic oil and

gas supplies and its level of reliance on
imported oil, gas and electricity
Diversity
The range of energy sources used in
meeting each countrys energy demand
Intensity
The degree to which the economy of each
country is dependent on oil and gas
Levels of risk
o Extreme risk
ESI < 2.5
Northern African countries, northern South
America
Includes South Korea
o High risk
2.5 < ESI < 5
Scattered across the globe
Include developed countries such as USA and
Japan

o Medium risk
5 < ESI < 7.5
Widespread
Europe, Asia, Australasia
o Low Risk
ESI>7.5
Canada, Russia, Norway, Middle East
All are producers and exporters of oil and gas
Characteristics of risk
o Heavy importers show high levels of risk
o Countries with substantial reserves show low levels,
regardless of their own consumption
o Medium-sized developed countries show medium levels
of risk possibly due to diversification
o Level of risk in emerging economies is similar to that in
most advanced economies
o The relatively low level of risk in many African countries
reflects low consumption and untapped resources
o USA has a high risk due to huge consumption and
imports

Impacts of Energy Insecurity

What are the potential impacts of an increasingly
energy insecure world?
Energy Pathways

Since the early 1990s there has been a significant increase in

the export of fuels
Oil and gas
o Complex global
pattern of
pathways and
plays
o The middle east
exports around
15,000 barrels
per day
o Gas pathways
tend to be
localised and
regional

o Natural gas has traditionally been transported through

pipelines, whereas oil is shipped
o As delivery via pipelines becomes less dependable,
there will be a switch towards shipping gas in takers as
liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Coal
o There are also many coal pathways from countries as far
apart as Australia and Poland
o Far less coal is currently moved than oil and gas
o May increase as supplies seems more dependable as
less threatened by geopolitical considerations

Risks of Disruption to Supply

The oil crisis of 1973 and

1980s shocked many
countries into developing
national and international
energy policies
Aimed as reducing the risks of
disruption to supplies by
geopolitical instability and
unforeseen rises in energy
prices
Growing nervousness about

energy security because:

o Unprecedented growth in energy demands across the
globe
Growth of countries such as China and India has
lead to huge demand and increased prices
o Rising concern about the security of energy supply
infrastructure
Higher volumes of fuel than ever before are being
transported over longer distances
Under threat from terrorism, lack of capacity, wear
and tear, piracy and political rivalries
To ensure safe transport huge amounts of private
investment are necessary
o Energy markets do not always behave as expected
Iran-Iraq war of 1980-88 had a relatively limited
impact on oil supplies
However recent oil prices have jumped at the
mention of strikes in Nigeria
o Speculation in the futures market for oil and gas has
driven prices higher

o What are the impacts of disruption to energy supplies

Fuel poverty (local) (economic and political)
A need to search for new sources/develop new
routes (international)
Protests about
fuel prices (local)
(political)
Rising oil prices
(international)
(economic)
Escalating conflict
e.g. between
Russia and Ukraine
(international) (economic and political)

Exploration of New Reserves

Hunt for new reserves is creating political alliances and the

danger of fresh conflicts
China is moving aggressively to find sources of energy
imports, potentially setting up a confrontation with the USA
over the dwindling resources of the middle east and Africa
As fossil fuel prices rise the option of exploited resources
previously considered uneconomic becomes more attractive
Governments have started looking at possible indigenous
sources of unconventional oil

Players

The most powerful

players and
stakeholders are OPEC
members
Large exporting countries
outside of OPEC
(Russia) are also large
players
A number of TNCs play a big role, including Shell and Exxon
Mobil
New players have emerged major consumers e.g. China
o Chinas rapid industrialisation has turned it form a net
exporter to a net importer of oil
Consumers are often highly price sensitive and can excert
pressure on politicians
Governments can decide on their national energy mix and
renewable policies, as well as providing subsidies and grants
Environmentalists put pressure to adopt renewables and
reduce carbon intensity
Scientists undertake research into alternative fuels and
applications as well as increasing efficiency

Energy Security and the Future

What might the worlds energy future be?

Future Supply and Demand of Energy

Growing realisation that a glitch in world energy supplies could

trigger an economic catastrophe
Factors increase the likelihood of such as event (oil)
o Spectacular rise in global oil consumption
o Possibility that we may have reached peak oil
Prospect of declining production and rising prices
Some scientists say we reached peak oil in 2005,
other argue we will reach it in 2015 or 2020
o Concentration of oil production in fewer countries as oil
wells elsewhere are pumped dry
o Unpredictable actions of OPEC and other players and
stakeholders
Factors contributing to global energy uncertainty
o Future performance of global economy
o Scale of global population growth
o Impact of rising living standards
o Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves
o Discovery of new energy technologies
o The scale of the possible switch to renewable energies
o Possible contribution of unconventional oil sources
o Emergent economies energy demands
Peak oil
o By 2030, global
consumption is
expected to
reach 113
million barrels
of oil/day
o By 2030 total
global energy
consumption
is
expected to
have
grown by 50%,
with
demand from
developing
countries surging by 85%
o Electricity generation is expected to nearly double by
2030
o China accounts for 70% of new coal production

o Nuclear power is expected to rise by 50%, mostly in

China and India
o Why is oil important?
We depend on oil to fuel transport, make
agricultural fertilisers and plastics
o What is peak oil and have we reached it?
Peak oil theory is based on the work of Shell
geologist M King Hubbert in 1950s
Peak oil is the point at which oil production
worldwide meets a maximum, to be followed by a
gradual decline
Peak oil may be influenced by geology, availability
of technology or economic and political events
Statistics produced by BP show that oil production
in at least 18 countries is in decline e.g. Norways
production has slumped by 25% since its peak in
2001
o What are the consequences of reaching peak oil?
The peak is more important than the point in time
oil actually runs out, because of rising prices as
supply falls
After peak production, supply will decline and oil
prices will rise
Using crops to create fuel can push up the price of
crops and exacerbate world hunger
Given the uncertainty about peak oil, some
countries are replacing conventional oil use with
alternatives technologies
Many forecasters expect global oil production to
fall by 3% a year after peak oil is reached. This
will lead to large spikes in oil prices and may
trigger recessions

Future Responses

Business as usual
o Between now and 2030
Global primary energy demand will rise by 53%,
leading to a 55% increase in global energy-related
CO2 emissions
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of
energy worldwide
As the demand for electricity rises, emissions from
electricity generations will account for 44% of
global energy-related emissions

Coal will provide the largest incremental source of

power generation, with the majority of this
increase in China (55%)
Over 70% of the increase in global primary energy
demand will come from developing countries
Multi-energy solution
o Involves meeting future energy demands from a mixture
of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources
o Rich fuel mix necessary to ensure energy security and to
maintain an affordable supply
o One controversial component is nuclear
Energy conservation
o Based on decreasing the amount of energy used
o Individuals and organisations that are direct consumers
of energy may want to reduce consumption
o High on the political agenda for EU
o Countries have targets to reduce carbon emissions and
cut their energy requirements
Transitioning to a fully sustainable global energy system by
2050
o Benefits of switching to renewable energy supply
Energy security and price volatility
IEA predicts that crude oil has reached its
peak
The increases in oil prices are consistent
with oils declining availability
It is a sign of scarcity that prices are so high
Other impacts
Environmental impacts and health (air
pollution)
Reduced incidents such as BP oil spill
Climate change
Fossil fuels results in large increasing CO2
emissions
To stabilize global temperatures at 2
degrees, emissions need to peak before
2020 and then decline
By 2050 emission will need to be 50-60% of
190 emissions
And there must be negative emissions from
2070
o It is possible
Possible but it will be challenging says ECOFYS

Fossil fuels can be phased out over time

while renewables take up the challenge
There has to be a rapid uptake of energy
efficiency alongside a substitution of
traditional with renewable sources
Fossil fuels have to have a small input (5%)
Reduced demand for raw materials and
increased efficiency are key in industry
Buildings need to strongly reduce heat
demand and increase electrification
Electrification is also key to sustainability in
transports
o Global net costs will peak below 2% of GDP and then will
fall and in the long run more money will be generated
than lost
o It requires strong actions from all stakeholders to be
realized

Effects of Increasing Energy Security

Key to becoming energy secure

o Making greatest possible use of domestic sources of
energy
o Diversifying energy resources to minimise the use of
fossil fuels and maximise the use of renewable sources
o Ensuring guarantees of imported energy from reliable
supplies and at stable prices
Increasing competition for energy
Oil and conflict
o Major consumers are concerned to ensure the reliability
of their supplies
o Some believe that this was a significant factor in the
2003 invasion of Iraq
o Oil was also seen as a driving force in earlier armed
conflicts in the gulf region
o In Africa China are competing to secure access to
African oil with promises of economic aid and military
protection
o USA and Venezuelas relations are becoming strained as
Chavez threatened to stop selling their crude oil to the
USA

o Most conflict after the Cold War has been triggered by

oil.

Meeting Future Energy Needs

Global challenge
o The International Energy Authority (IEA) estimates that
$22 trillion of new investment will be needed by 2030
o There is also the global challenge of climate change and
the need to develop cleaner sources of energy
o Two possible ways
Carrot and stick measures such as emissions
controls, carbon trading, green taxation
Develop new and radical technologies which are
sustainable and bring energy security
Stick and carrot
o Emission controls
Kyoto 1997
2007 13 countries agreed on global cap-and-trade
scheme
o Emissions trading
Countries that produce less than their maximum
can sell excess emissions to over-producing
countries
Works on a variety of scales
Creates a carbon market
o Green taxes
Vehicle excise duty
Pollution pays

Government gains revenue

New technologies
o Offshore wind turbines
Costs 50% than on land
Wind speeds around double at sea
Less visible and audible
Could interfere with radar and pose a threat to
national security
Horns Rev (North Sea off Denmark) is worlds
largest
Cost 270 million but produces 160MW
o Carbon storage
Captures CO2 and may allow coal to be clean
No one knows if it will work
Very expensive
o Geothermal energy
In Philippines 25% from underground heat
Free, inexhaustible and available day and night
Many places have hot rocks
In many locations the heat is too deep, or has
been dispersed
o Biofuels
Crops, trees and algae
Grasses and trees need a lot of processing and
can be turned into ethanol
Aquatic algae are trickier to grow but produce oil
that requires less refining
Issues
New crops need to be developed specifically
for food
The supply chain can be costly
Range of small and large scale bio-refineries
need to improve logistics
Competition between food and biofuel crops
for space needs to be addressed, as it may
cause large scale deforestation
Sustainability
o Offshore wind farms, carbon capture and store and
geothermal all seem to promise a high degree of
sustainability
o Still not economically viable
o Biofuels is the most feasible but may not be sustainable
in terms of impact on environmental and human
wellbeing