Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

A crash-prediction model for multilane roads

Ciro Caliendo a, , Maurizio Guida b , Alessandra Parisi a
a

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano (SA), Italy

Department of Information and Electrical Engineering, University of Salerno, 84084 Fisciano (SA), Italy
Received 24 March 2006; received in revised form 5 October 2006; accepted 21 October 2006

Abstract
Considerable research has been carried out in recent years to establish relationships between crashes and traffic flow, geometric infrastructure
characteristics and environmental factors for two-lane rural roads. Crash-prediction models focused on multilane rural roads, however, have rarely
been investigated. In addition, most research has paid but little attention to the safety effects of variables such as stopping sight distance and
pavement surface characteristics. Moreover, the statistical approaches have generally included Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models,
whilst Negative Multinomial regression model has been used to a lesser extent. Finally, as far as the authors are aware, prediction models involving
all the above-mentioned factors have still not been developed in Italy for multilane roads, such as motorways. Thus, in this paper crash-prediction
models for a four-lane median-divided Italian motorway were set up on the basis of accident data observed during a 5-year monitoring period
extending between 1999 and 2003. The Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial regression models, applied separately to tangents
and curves, were used to model the frequency of accident occurrence. Model parameters were estimated by the Maximum Likelihood Method, and
the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test was applied to detect the significant variables to be included in the model equation. Goodness-of-fit was
measured by means of both the explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residuals
Method was also used to test the adequacy of a regression model throughout the range of each variable. The candidate set of explanatory variables
was: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS)
and the presence of a junction (J). Separate prediction models for total crashes and for fatal and injury crashes only were considered. For curves
it is shown that significant variables are L, 1/R and AADT, whereas for tangents they are L, AADT and junctions. The effect of rain precipitation
was analysed on the basis of hourly rainfall data and assumptions about drying time. It is shown that a wet pavement significantly increases the
number of crashes.
The models developed in this paper for Italian motorways appear to be useful for many applications such as the detection of critical factors,
the estimation of accident reduction due to infrastructure and pavement improvement, and the predictions of accidents counts when comparing
different design options. Thus this research may represent a point of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane roads.
2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Crash-prediction model; Multilane road; Negative Multinomial distribution; Traffic flow; Road geometry; Pavement friction; Weather

1. Introduction
Over the last few years numerous road-accident-prediction
models have been developed to investigate the effects that various variables may have on the value of a pre-selected crash
indicator. The most common crash indicators that have hitherto
been used are the number of crashes per year (crash frequency)
and the number of crashes per million vehicle-kilometres (crash
rate). The fact that accidents might not be a linear function of
traffic flow and section length generally induces one to use crash

Corresponding author. Tel.: +39 089 964140; fax: +39 089 964045.
E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Caliendo).

0001-4575/$ see front matter 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.aap.2006.10.012

frequency as the more appropriate dependent variable for predictive models.

Many independent variables affect crash frequency, and these
are generally related to traffic flow, section length, infrastructure
geometric characteristics, pavement surface conditions, lighting,
weather and driver behaviour. The value of certain variables is
sometimes difficult to estimate, and the influence of such variables on road accidents may not be equally significant. Hence,
from a wider set of independent variables researchers generally
extract a reduced number of variables for inclusion in the proposed model. Traffic flow and road geometry, for example, have
for years been recognized as the major causes of crashes, while
only recently has human behaviour come to be increasingly
acknowledged also as one of the predominant factors. Thus a

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C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

vast literature exists regarding accident-prediction models based

on independent traffic and road variables, whereas the human
component variable is still seldom ever considered.
In keeping with the literature, prediction models have been
developed by using analysis techniques that may basically be
grouped into four main approaches, namely Multivariate Analysis (for references see Section 2), Empirical Bayes Method
(Hauer, 2001; Miaou and Song, 2005; Ozbay and Noyan, 2006;
Persaud et al., 1999), Fuzzy Logic (Adeli and Karim, 2000;
Hsiao et al., 1994; Sayed et al., 1995) and Neural Network
(Abdelwahab and Abdel-Aty, 2001; Chiou, 2006; Delen et al.,
2006; Mussone et al., 1999). Furthermore, Principal Component
Analysis (PCA) is also now being used as a preliminary tool for
removing redundant variables (Caliendo and Parisi, 2005; Golob
and Recker, 2003). However, among these techniques Multivariate Analysis has been successfully applied for many years so that
nowadays it is the most widespread one adopted. The other statistical approaches mentioned above, albeit appearing to have
a significant accident-forecasting capability, have only recently
begun to be used, so that only few studies are available. Therefore a lot of detailed research has still to be done regarding their
employment in the field of road safety. For this reason Multivariate Analysis has been pre-selected in this paper for its long
and consolidated use in accident analysis.
With regard to this latter approach, the earlier models were
based on Multiple Linear Regression, with the assumptions of
normally distributed errors and homoscedacity. However, it was
soon recognized that the nature of accident occurrence is such
that it is better to model the process by using a Poisson distribution. The desired forms of relationships using the Poisson
distribution have been developed by means of the technique of
Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). However, albeit representing a significant advance in modelling capability, the Poisson
distribution contains certain weaknesses, one of which regards
the fact that the expected number of accidents per time unit is
equal to the variance. In many accident analyses in contrast, the
so-called phenomenon of overdispersion has been observed.
Thus in order to take this parameter into account, the Negative
Binomial or the Negative Multinomial distributions are often
used when searching for accident-prediction models.
Many researchers have refined prediction models, and have
also revealed their operating limits, as well as highlighting
questions that still remain open. However, these models have
been developed in countries where accident surveys, human
behaviour, infrastructure and traffic characteristics differ from
those in Italy. In addition, previous research has paid little attention to variables such as pavement surface friction and sight
distance. Moreover, they generally refer to two-lane rural roads,
whereas multilane roads have hitherto been investigated to a
lesser degree.
As a result, there are at least four main reasons for justifying this paper. The first is motivated by the need to quantify the safety effects on the expected number of crashes for
multilane rural roads of all the following variables: traffic
flow, road geometry, sight distance, pavement surface friction
and rain precipitation. In fact, there is an a priori reason to
believe that crashes on multilane roads are associated with

these variables in different ways as compared to accidents

occurring on two-lane rural roads. Secondly, given the range
of the above-mentioned statistical regression models (Poisson,
Negative Binomial or Negative Multinomial distribution), an
appropriate choice for modelling crash should be suggested. A
third reason is for suggesting countermeasures appropriate for
improving road safety. For example, it may be better understood
whether geometry adjustment related to curves and junctions
reduces crashes, and whether pavement resurfacing with the
use of porous asphalt as surface course has a positive effect
on road safety when it rains. Finally, given the gap of crash predictive models for Italian motorways, relationships that were
not known before between total and severe crashes and the
set of explanatory variables should be estimated. Consequently,
this research might represent over the next few years a point
of reference for engineers in adjusting or designing multilane
roads.
Such then, is the context wherein the present work is set.
The paper sets out to study crash data of accidents occurring
in Italy on multilane roads. The objective is to identify a specific prediction model to estimate crash frequency as a function
of traffic flow, infrastructure characteristics, pavement surface
conditions (including whether wet or dry) and sight distance.
For this purpose the results of a 5-year monitoring period on a
four-lane median-divided motorway were analysed. Each carriageway was divided into segments with constant horizontal
curvature and longitudinal slope. The number of crashes per year
occurring on these geometric elements was assumed to represent the dependent variable to be related both to traffic flow and
road factors in the model herein proposed. Both total crashes
and injury crashes including fatalities were analysed in order
to consider accident severity. The fact that the estimates here
proposed combine fatal and injury accident data is a logical step
when data are scarce.
Since preliminary analyses showed that a unique regression
model (with zero curvature for tangents) would imply considerably overestimating (underestimating) the number of crashes
occurring on curves (tangents), the methodology was applied
separately to tangents and curves. Poisson, Negative Binomial
and Negative Multinomial distributions were used to model
the random variation of the number of crashes. The Maximum
Likelihood Method was used for estimating prediction model
parameters, and then the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test
(GLRT) was applied to evaluate the significant variables to be
introduced into the final model. Subsequently the goodness-offit of the regression model was tested by means of both the
explained fraction of total variation and the explained fraction
of systematic variation. The Cumulative Residual method was
also used to test the adequacy of a model throughout the range
of each regression variable.
2. Literature review
As far as the authors are aware the first accident-prediction
models for multilane roads were devised by Persaud and Dzbik
(1993). Relationships between crash data and traffic flow,
expressed both as average daily traffic (ADT) and hourly volume

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

(VH), were proposed. The analysis was based on generalized

linear models. Results showed that crash rate increases with
increasing traffic flow expressed both as ADT and VH. Accident risk on four-lane freeways was found to be lower than
on freeways with more than four lanes, reflecting the fact that
on freeways with more than four lanes, under the same traffic
volume, free-flow conditions prevail, so that users have greater
freedom for manoeuvre which major crash risk is associated
with. Thus, traffic flow expressed as VH appears to be more
appropriate than ADT for explaining accident phenomena since
it takes into account congested or free-flow traffic conditions
at the time of crashes. Unfortunately, accurate measures of VH
are difficult to obtain, so that ADT is often used in accidentprediction models.
Knuiman et al. (1993) examined the effect of median width
of four-lane roads on crash rate using a Negative Binomial distribution. The findings indicated that crash rate decreases with
increasing median width. Furthermore, wider medians considerably reduce crossover accidents involving head-on crashes
between opposing vehicles. As a result, a much greater positive
effect on severe crashes than on property-damage-only crashes
is expected.
Fridstrm et al. (1995) related road accidents to four variables, namely traffic flow, speed limits, weather and lighting
conditions. They considered Negative Binomial regression. The
major point of interest of their work is the goodness-of-fit measure. Since goodness-of-fit measures based on the fraction of
the explained variation as compared to the total variation (R2 or
R2D ) are rather low or controversial, a new approach involving the
explained variation R2D as compared to the systematic component of variation PD2 rather than to total variation was developed.
On the basis of the above-mentioned four independent variables,
they were able to explain between 85 and 95% of the systematic
component of variation.
Hadi et al. (1995) proposed several accident-prediction models with regard both to multilane roads and two-lane roads of
rural or urban designation. The dependent variables were total
crash rate or injury crash rate. The values of these accident
indicators were estimated as a function of AADT and road environmental factors. Poisson and Negative Binomial regression
models were considered. By examining the effect of traffic flow
on the crash rate the conclusions reached were that crash rate
increases with increasing AADT on roads having higher levels
of traffic, while it decreases with AADT on roads with lower
traffic volumes. This finding reflects the fact that in the presence of low traffic volumes, free-flow conditions exist so that
by increasing AADT the users have more restricted freedom for
manoeuvre with which a lesser crash risk is associated.
Persaud et al. (2000) presented one of the earliest studies for
carrying out separate analyses for curves and tangents, albeit
limited to two-lane roads. The dependent variable was crash
frequency, while the independent variables were traffic flow
and road geometry. Regression models were calibrated using
a generalized linear modelling. A dummy variable for flat
or undulating terrain was also used. For curves, crash frequency was found to increase with: AADT, section length (L)
and curvature (1/R). For tangents, the number of accidents per

659

year increases with AADT and L. A higher accident number on

undulating terrain than on flat one was also shown.
Abdel-Aty and Essam Radwan (2000) used Negative Binomial distribution to predict crash frequency as a function of:
AADT, degree of horizontal curvature, section length, lane,
shoulder and median widths, and urban/rural designation. The
attractiveness of this study is that the models were developed
also to account for driver characteristics, including sex (male or
female) and age (young, middle-aged and old). Results showed
that crash frequency increases with AADT, degree of horizontal
curvature and section length. Accident frequency decreases, in
contrast, with lane, shoulder and median width.
For French interurban motorways, Martin (2002) described
the relationship between crash rate and traffic volume per hour
(VH) and the influence of traffic on crash severity. A Negative Binomial distribution was used. To model the probability
of observing at least one injury crash in a crash, a logistic
regression with a random component having a Binomial distribution was also used. The major point of interest emerging
from this study is that the relationship between crash rate and
VH was shown to be non-linear. Higher crash rate values, both
for damage-only and for injury crashes, were found when VH
was fewer than 400 vehicles/h. Crash rate also decreased rapidly
with increasing VH, passing through a minimum (approximately
1000 and 1500 vehicles/h for two-lane and three-lane carriageways, respectively). After that the crash rate increased gradually
with an increase in traffic.
Golob and Recker (2003) used linear and non-linear multivariate statistical analyses to determine how the type of accidents
related to traffic flow, weather and lighting conditions. The
study approach was based on the Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) in order to identify the most significant variables from
a set of original traffic flow variables, and a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to relate the identified principal
components both to weather and lighting conditions.
In a subsequent paper, Golob et al. (2004) evaluated the safety
effects of changes in freeway traffic flow. The research was based
on some of the same statistical methods used in the previous
study, with the addition of further steps which were required
for monitoring and forecasting purposes. Three crash characteristics were used in the analysis, namely crash type (rear end,
sideswipe or hit object, number of vehicles involved); crash location (e.g. left lane, interior lanes, right lane, shoulder); crash
severity (injuries and fatalities per vehicle).
Hauer (2004a) developed statistical road safety modelling
by using the Negative Binomial distribution. The dependent
variable was the number of accident per year, while the independent ones were geometric characteristics and traffic flow. First
of all the author suggested guidelines for assigning the functional form to each variable in the model, and observed that the
model equation should have both a multiplicative and an additive
component. The multiplicative component is to account for the
influence of variables that have a continuous role along a road
(such as lane width or shoulder type), while the additive component is to account for the presence of hazardous points (such
as driveways or narrow bridges). The most innovative aspect of
this study was the introduction of an alternative tool for mea-

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suring the goodness-of-fit of the predictive models, the so-called

Cumulative Residuals (CURE) Method. This method consists of
plotting the cumulative residuals as a function of the independent variable of interest, a good CURE plot being one oscillating
around zero.
In a further study Hauer (2004b) applied the above-mentioned
statistical model to estimate crash frequency on undivided fourlane urban roads. The proposed models evaluated the number of
accidents per year and carriageway as a function of the following independent variables: AADT, percentage of trucks, degree
and length of horizontal curves, grade of tangents and length
of vertical curves, lane width, shoulder width and type, roadside
hazard rating, speed limit, access points (e.g. signalized intersections, stop-controlled intersections, commercial driveways and
other driveways), the presence and nature both of parking and
two-way-left-turn-lanes. The findings showed that significant
variables were: AADT, the number of commercial driveways
and speed limit.
As it regards the effect of precipitation on crashes there is a
general perception that this variable represents a road traffic hazard. But the findings are sometimes difficult to compare since
they are based on: a variety of methods and variables, different accident types (damage-only accidents or fatal and injury
accidents) and different time periods and data sources. However, most studies show that precipitation in the form of rain
and snow causes more accidents as compared to dry conditions
(Edwards, 1998; Eisenberg, 2004; Fridstrm et al., 1995; Golob
and Recker, 2003; Keay and Sommonds, 2005, 2006; Shankar
et al., 1995). In particular it was found that the height of precipitation and, more relevantly, the time from the last precipitation
are factors which affect crashes significantly.
This paper focuses on variables related to traffic flow, infrastructure geometry, pavement surface and rainfall. The next section describes the data set used and the process of preparing it
for analysis.

referred to as severe crashes hereinafter. 31.1% of all crashes

and 33.4% of severe crashes occurred on curves, which represent
29.7% of the total length of the motorway. Table 1 gives accident
count data observed during the 5-year monitoring period.
The database does not include accidents taking place on
the ramps of junctions, on service areas, at tollbooths or on
shoulders, since such accidents are not due to traffic flow and
infrastructure characteristics. Pedestrians and bicycles are forbidden to use this infrastructure. Thus no pedestrian and bicycle
were involved in accidents.
Besides, the monitored motorway is located in the South of
Italy, connecting the cities of Naples and Salerno. In this flat area,
meteorological data showed that very rarely did the temperature drop below freezing and that neither snow nor extremely
fog were observed during the 5-year monitoring period
(19992003). As a result, weather conditions such as ice, snow
or fog cannot be considered as causes of crashes in the present
case study. In contrast rain precipitations are frequent in this area.
Official reports on accidents do not contain information about
drunk driving and this fact could represent a limitation. In fact
very little data are presently available in Italy concerning the
effect of the alcohol level in the blood on road safety. However,
according to the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)
roads accidents due to alcohol abuse are very few (1.2%) so that
it is reasonable to believe that the lack of this variable does not
significantly limit the findings of this study.
As a result of the above considerations, this paper correlates
total and severe crashes to traffic flow, horizontal and vertical
motorway alignment, pavement surface characteristics and rainfall.
For the purpose of the subsequent statistical analysis, homogeneous road sections were first identified, i.e. segments for each
carriageway having constant horizontal curvature and longitudinal slope. For these segments the following major variables
did not change: width and number of lanes, type and width of
shoulders, median width and type.

3. Data description
3.1. Horizontal and vertical alignment
A 5-year monitoring period extending from 1999 to 2003
was carried out on a four-lane median-divided motorway. This
infrastructure was 46.6 km long, and the horizontal alignment
contained tangents and circular curves without any transition
curves. Vertical alignment consisted of gradients and circular
curves.
During the period of observation, crash data, traffic flow,
pavement surface conditions and rainfall data were collated.
Accident data were extracted from the official reports of the
Motorway Management Agency (MMA). For each accident a
variety of details was recorded, including date and location of
accident, horizontal alignment (tangent or curve), vertical alignment (upgrade or downgrade), weather and pavement surface
conditions (dry or wet), type and severity of accidents, number of vehicles and persons involved, and a short description of
the accident dynamics. Some 1916 accidents were considered
in this study, 21 of which were fatal and 594 were injury accidents. Since fatalities appear to be too few to be analysed alone,
fatal and injury crashes were considered collectively and are

Horizontal and vertical alignments of the monitored motorway were derived from a file containing a recent 3D aerial survey.
The Autodesk Inc. AutoCAD 2000 software was applied in
order to measure the geometric characteristics (e.g. length of
tangents and curves, horizontal and vertical curvature, longitudinal slope). Tangents with length ranging from 0.1 to 1.7 km
and horizontal curves with radii from 0.2 to 8.0 km were computed. Furthermore, gradients with longitudinal slope ranging
between 4.5 and +4.5% were estimated and vertical curves of
circular type were defined.
3.2. Sight distance
In order to establish the role played by restricted visibility
on accident occurrence, sight distances (SD) regarding the horizontal and vertical alignment were also determined.
On horizontal curves, a physical feature outside the travelled way such as the longitudinal safety barrier was con-

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

661

Table 1
Accident count data observed during the 5-year monitoring period
Year

Number of all (severe) accidents

North direction
Tangents

South direction
Curves

Years total

Tangents

Years total
Curves

Years total

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

140 (47)
115 (29)
119 (39)
156 (52)
155 (43)

57 (25)
32 (10)
78 (27)
77 (25)
68 (17)

197 (72)
147 (39)
197 (66)
233 (77)
223 (60)

111 (35)
110 (46)
142 (36)
131 (40)
141 (38)

36 (9)
40 (14)
69 (21)
69 (30)
70 (25)

147 (44)
150 (60)
211 (57)
200 (70)
211 (63)

344 (116)
297 (99)
408 (123)
433 (147)
434 (123)

Total

685 (210)

312 (104)

997 (314)

635 (195)

284 (99)

919 (294)

1916 (608)

sidered as an obstruction limiting the drivers sight distance.

On the vertical profile, the road surface at some point on a
crest vertical curve was assumed as an obstruction limiting
the drivers sight distance. The available sight distances were
determined graphically at frequent intervals along the motorway both on the plane and vertical profile. Then the shorter sight
lengths were introduced into the analysis for each direction of
travel.
3.3. Trafc volume
Traffic flow was extracted from the traffic file of the MMA.
This file contained only the daily number of vehicles entering a
carriageway through the controlled access points located along
the motorway for paying the toll. Since the daily number of
vehicles leaving a carriageway through the exit points was not
however recorded, an approximate procedure for estimating the
annual average daily traffic (AADT) on each road section was
followed. By noting that the traffic flow on the motorway is
essentially that of commuters, it was assumed that the total number of vehicles leaving a carriageway in a year at a given exit
point was equal to the number of vehicles entering the other carriageway in the same year through the corresponding controlled
access point in the opposite direction. Thus, the total annual traffic flow at each carriageway input/output point was computed
as the algebraic sum of the above-mentioned flows, assuming a
positive sign for entrances and a negative one for exits. This total
number of vehicles was then divided by the number of days in
the year, and the annual average daily flows at each carriageway
input/output point were estimated. The AADT on tangents and
curves, located between two successive input/output points i and
i + 1, was computed as the sum of the first i above-mentioned
traffic flows. AADT values ranging from about 17,600 to 47,400
vehicles per day were found.
3.4. Pavement friction coefcient
Road surface characteristics were defined by pavement friction and expressed in terms of Side Friction Coefficient (SFC),
measured by means of a SCRIM equipment.
Every year MMA makes provision for evaluating the SFC
in order to check that the pavement friction has not dropped
below the threshold permitted for road safety. SFC is measured
in continuous along the motorway both for the right and left

Total number of
vehicles travelling

54.3 106
56.4 106
56.1 106
55.7 106
56.0 106

lanes and for each direction of travel. For estimating the SFC
value for each of 265 segments considered (147 for tangents
and 118 for curves) in this paper the data provided by MMA
was used and the following approximate procedure was applied.
The SFC value for each segment
 of length l was calculated as
the weighted mean SFC = ni=1 li SFCi / l, where SFCi is the
pavement friction value on the sub-segment of length li (SFCi
being the average value of the friction measured on the two
lanes of each travel direction). Using this procedure, SCF values
ranging from 0.26 to 0.74 were estimated.
Summary statistics of the above independent variables are
given in Table 2.
3.5. Rain
Rain precipitation data were derived from the Functional
Hydrogeological Centre of Campanian Region. They consist of
millimetres of rain per hour measured by eight weather stations
located along the route of the motorway.
Of all the 1916 accidents registered on the motorway in the
5-year monitoring period, 273 are reported by MMA as having
occurred on wet pavement. In order to evaluate a potential rain
effect on the number of crashes, the amount of time the pavement
is wet is estimated using the hourly rainfall data and assumptions
about drying time. For this purpose for each of the 265 road
segments (curve and tangent), the amount of time the pavement
was wet in a year was estimated by summing up the hours of
rainfall observed in that year as available from the records of the
nearest weather station. Subsequently, this amount of time in
hours was transformed into a time-equivalent number of days
with a wet pavement in each year of the monitoring period.
In other words, in this study conventional days are introduced,
each day being totally dry or wet, with a number of dry
and wet days in a year proportional to the estimated amount
of time the pavement of a road segment was, respectively, dry
or wet during that year. Then, accidents occurred when the
pavement surface was dry (wet) are associated with days
with a conventional surface status dry (wet). All remaining
days, both dry or wet, have zero accidents. Thus, a data
set resulted which consists of the daily number of accidents on
each road section in the 5-year monitoring period, along with
the conventional daily status (dry or wet) of the pavement
surface.

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C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

Table 2
Summary statistics of independent variablessouth direction carriageway

Length (km)
Longitudinal slope (%)
Sight distance (km)
Curvature (km1 )
Side friction coefficient
AADT/10,000

Mean

Mode

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

0.350
0.05
0.583
2.105
0.473
2.748

0.245
2.42
0.200
0.504
0.515
1.874

0.298
2.09
0.477
1.463
0.060
0.972

0.069
4.37
0.100
0.126
0.286
1.764

1.695
4.26
2.335
4.854
0.670
4.741

Note. SFC and AADT vary along time and the table was calculated based on 665 observations.
Table 3
Summary statistics of rain data: day counts for all road segments from 1999 to
2003

With 0 crashes
With at least 1 crash
Column total

Wet pavement

Dry pavement

Row total

32,073
270
32,343

449,919
1,628
451,547

481,992
1,898
483,890

This way of estimating the amount of time the pavement

surface was wet is consistent with Brodsky and Hakkerts (1988)
assumption about drying time. In fact, the resulting wet time is
calculated by assuming on average both a raining time of 30 min
and a drying time of 30 min, at any given hour.
Table 3 presents summary statistics for rain data. Day counts
for all road segments and the 5-year monitoring period are given,
as a function of two categorical variables, namely (day with no
accidents; day with at least one accident) and (day with a dry
pavement; day with a wet pavement).
As a consequence of the above analyses a data matrix was
created containing the following column variables: number of
accidents per year and carriageway occurring on tangents or
curves as dependent variable; section length, curvature, annual
average daily traffic, longitudinal slope, sight distance on curves,
side friction coefficient and presence of junctions as independent
variables.
In order to analyse the rain effect, a different data matrix
was created containing the number of accidents per day as the
dependent variable and the same previous independent variables
plus a dummy (0, 1) variable for dry and wet pavement
conditions, respectively.
4. Modelling accident counts
A somewhat natural way for describing the fluctuation of
accident counts, say Yi , which occur on a road section i during
given time intervals (e.g. different years), is to assume that Yi is
a random variable (r.v.) with the Poisson probability law. Let i
be the expected number of accidents per unit of time on section
i. It is well known that a Poisson r.v. Yi has Var{Yi } = E{Yi } = i .
In many situations, however, it has been observed that accident counts appear to be overdispersed with respect to the
theoretical variability consistent with the Poisson model. In
order to account for this overdispersion, it is often assumed that
the expected number of accidents per unit of time in the Poisson model is a r.v., i say, where is assumed to be a Gamma

variate with E{} = 1 and Var{} = 1/. Under this assumption,

it can be readily shown that Yi is a Negative Binomial (NB) r.v.
with E{Yi } = i and Var{Yi } = i (1 + i /), thus allowing for the
variance of accident counts to be greater than the mean, provided
that 1/ > 0. For this reason 1/ (or itself) is often called the
overdispersion parameter.
Road sections do not have only accident counts, however, but
also traits such as length, traffic flow, geometric design variables,
environmental conditions, etc. Thus, the objective of statistical
road modelling is to estimate the expected number of accidents
on a given section as a function of its traits. In other words, it
is assumed that there exists a systematic, i.e. causal, component in accident counts, and explanatory variables (traits) may
account for this non-random component. This implies defining
a regression model where the explanatory variables (and possibly combinations thereof) act as covariates.
Let x be a vector of k covariates and a vector of k (unknown)
coefficients. For both the Poisson and the NB model, a regression model of the expected number of accidents is defined by
= g(xi ;) where g() denotes a certain function. Not all functions can serve equally well, however. In fact, it is recognized
(see, e.g. Hauer, 2004a,b) that the effect of variables that influence the probability of accident occurrence along a significant
portion of a segment is more effectively represented by multiplicative terms, whereas the effect of variables that behave
as point hazards are more effectively represented by additive
terms. Thus, the regression model should in general have both a
multiplicative and an additive portion. As to the multiplicative
component, the exponential choice appears to be a natural one,
in that it ensures that the expected number of accidents is always
a positive number.
Longitudinal studies on accident counts generate multiple
observations for the same road section at certain time intervals
(typically 1 year). The yearly counts contributed by the same section form a cluster. The potential problem for clustered counts
data is that the observations of the same section may not be mutually independent. When independence does not hold, Poisson or
Negative Binomial models are inappropriate. Let Yij be the r.v.
describing the accident counts which occur on road section i in
year j. In the case of dependence Guo (1996) suggested modeling each individual count Yij in the cluster i as a mixed Poisson
r.v. with mean ij i , where i is assumed to be a Gamma variate with E{ i } = 1 and Var{ i } = 1/. Note that in this model
the random effect i only varies across clusters, not the member of a cluster. Moreover, the model assumes that, conditional
to i , the count r.v.s Yij (j = 1, . . ., ni ) are mutually indepen-

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

dent. Then, on writing down the conditional joint probability

function for cluster i, the unconditional joint probability function for Yij (j = 1, . . ., ni ) is obtained by integrating over i . This
joint probability function is known as the Negative Multinomial
(NM) distribution with E{Yij } = ij , Var{Yij } = ij (1 + ij /) and
Cov{Yij ,Yik } = ij ik /.
As for the NB model, the expected number of accidents ij
can be assumed to depend on a vector xij of covariates and a
vector of (unknown) coefficients, say ij = ij (xij ;).
A different tool to take into account the dependence in longitudinal studies is the Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE)
model, which provides an extension of GLM models, in that it
allows specifying several possible correlation structures (AbdelAty and Wang, 2006; Lord et al., 2005; Wang et al., 2006). The
simpler Guo (1996) model is used in this paper, however, since
we are not primarily interested in analysing the correlation structure.
Generalizations about the standard NB model and NM model
have also been proposed, where parameter is not the same for
all the sections under analysis, possibly depending on covariates
and unknown parameters. In particular, in order to avoid the
undesirable consequences that arise when road sections differ
in length, Hauer (2001) suggested using a model where i = li ,
thus assuming that the overdispersion parameter in each section
is proportional to the section length li .
4.1. Estimation of model parameters
In order to obtain estimates, and say, of the unknown
parameters and , the likelihood function under the governing
model (or equivalently its logarithm) is maximized. In the light
of the invariance property of maximum likelihood (ML) estima ( ij = ij (xij ; ))
is the ML estimate of the
tion, i = i (xi ; )
expected number of accidents per unit of time. In this paper a
Fortran code was implemented which maximizes the likelihood
function by using the double precision routine DBCONF of the
IMSL MATH/LIBRARY (1989).
4.2. Selecting the regression model
Given the data set of accident counts and section traits, the
first step is to test the presence of overdispersion, in order
to discriminate between the Poisson model and the NB or NM
models. On the basis of the ML estimates of the regression
coefficients under the Poisson model, the null hypothesis that
1/ = 0 against 1/ > 0 can be tested by the statistic:
Z=

N

i=1 {(Yi

663

be included in the regression model, a stepwise forward procedure based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT)
was used.
4.3. Measuring goodness-of-t
To measure the overall goodness-of-fit (g.o.f) in Linear
Regression Models the so-called coefficient of determination,
R2 , is often used.
In the case of Poisson and NB regression models, however, different measures of g.o.f. have also been suggested (see
Fridstrm et al., 1995). In fact, for these models the ML estimation method is usually used. To the extent that one wants to use
R2 statistic as a basis for testing g.o.f., the way the model parameters are estimated becomes relevant, since R2 is maximized by
ordinary Least Squares estimation but not by ML estimation.
Among g.o.f. indexes alternative to R2 , the most natural
one appears to be the likelihood ratio g.o.f. statistic R2D . Let Dm
be the scaled deviance of model m, that is Dm = 2 ln(Lm /LN ),
where LN is the maximum of the likelihood function of the model
in which there are as many parameters as there are observations
(the so-called full or saturated model). Now, let D0 denote the
scaled deviance of the zero model, i.e. the model with only a
constant term and an overdispersion parameter. In Fridstrm et
al. (1995) it is observed that D0 can be assumed as a measure of
the total variation present in the sample. Then, the R2D statistic
defined by
R2D = 1

Dm /(N m)
D0 /(N 2)

(2)

represents an obvious way for measuring the explanatory power

of model m. In the same paper, however, it is argued that a
more rational index of g.o.f. should measure the fraction of the
explained variation as compared to the systematic component
of variation alone, rather than to the total variation, which also
contains the purely (inexplicable) random component. In fact,
this allows computing g.o.f. measures that are equally informative, no matter how large the size of random variation may be.
For this purpose, a measure of the amount of systematic variation was introduced, which in a sense represents the upper bound
on the amount of variation that one is able to explain. More especially, in the framework of the likelihood ratio g.o.f. statistic, the
amount of systematic variation is estimated by
PD2 = 1

E{Dm }/(N m 1)
D0 /(N 2)

(3)

i ) Yi }
 
1/2
2
2 N
i=1 i

(1)

which is asymptotically distributed as a standard Normal r.v.

(Dean and Lawless, 1989). Large positive values of Z indicate
overdispersion, whereas large negative values indicate underdispersion.
Once the model type is chosen, and in order to decide which
subset of the full set of potentially explanatory variables should

where E{Dm } is the expected value of the scaled deviance of

model m when it degenerates into the Poisson model. Thus, the
fraction of systematic variation explained by the regression
model is given by R2D /PD2 .
A further goodness-of-fit tool used in this paper is the Cumulative Residuals (CURE) method described in Hauer (2004a).
This method consists in plotting the cumulative residuals for
each independent variable. The aim is to observe graphically
how well the function fits the data set.

13.384
370.15
0.129
0.814
3.443
372.23
0.121
0.767
9.548
375.43
0.110
0.696
2.625
376.53
0.106
0.671
379.40
0.098
0.616
18.254
463.60
0.185
0.687
4.146
465.50
0.181
0.671
14.491
479.57
0.148
0.550
3.623
480.54
0.146
0.542
490.93
0.123
0.458
Overdispersion parameter
Log likelihood
R2D , explained fraction of total variation
R2D /PD2 , explained fraction of systematic variation

1.32175
0.92575
0.32702
0.39709
0.28692
0.69578
1.39837
0.88783
0.33336
0.39903
0.26655
0.69321
1.33025
0.91221
0.32744
0.39095
0.26474
0.68694
1.33450
0.90626
0.32951
0.38973
0.28842
0.69605
0.07130
0.80311
0.27017
0.32660
0.38151
0.68686
0.09039
0.88222
0.25718
0.31828
0.38278
0.68692

NM
NBH
NB

0.03459
0.82431
0.26640
0.32674
0.38406
0.69335

NBH
NB
Poisson
Poisson

NMH

Severe crashes
All crashes

Table 4
Parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit measures for curves

5.1.1. Total accident counts

The stepwise procedure based on GLRT was implemented
and the Poisson regression model was fitted as first. The value
of the Z statistic (1) was calculated at convergence of the stepwise procedure. Since Z = 5.052, there is clear evidence that
overdispersion is present and, consequently the NB model and
the NM model were considered in the subsequent analysis. Both
the assumption that the parameter is the same for all the road
sections and the assumption that the overdispersion parameter
in each section is proportional to the section length were taken
into account. The acronyms NBH and NMH are used for this
latter situation. When applying Poisson and NB regression models it was assumed that there are N = 118 5 = 590 independent
observations of accident counts from a Poisson and a NB distribution, respectively. When applying the NM regression model
it was assumed that there are N = 118 independent clusters, each
with n = 5 observations from a NM distribution.
For all the models the estimated coefficients have the expected
sign. The number of accidents per year and carriageway occurring on curves increases with length, curvature and annual average daily traffic. These accidents decrease, in contrast, with sight
distance, side friction coefficient and longitudinal slope. For all
the regression models the significant variables affecting accidents are: L, 1/R and AADT, whereas SD, SFC and LS variables
do not appear to be statistically significant at the 5% level. A
non-random year effect on accident counts is also revealed, since
variables yr00 and yr99 appear to be highly statistically significant.
Table 4 shows the parameter estimates at convergence of the
stepwise procedure for all the models considered in the analysis.
Models are ordered by increasing explanatory power, measured
in terms of the explained fraction of both total and systematic
variation.
The Negative Multinomial model appears to bring about a
clear improvement in the fit of data over the Negative Binomial
model. When the overdispersion parameter in each section is

NM

The data set for curves consists of annual number of total and
severe accidents registered in n = 5 years from 1999 to 2003 on
N = 118 segments, 59 for each carriageway. The candidate set
of explanatory variables is: length (L), curvature (1/R), annual
average daily traffic (AADT), sight distance (SD), side friction
coefficient (SFC) and longitudinal slope (LS). Moreover, from
Table 1 it appears that the number of accidents registered on
curves during 1999 and especially during 2000 seems to be much
smaller than during the remaining years. Since we were not able
to assign a specific cause to this trend, dummy variables yr99,
yr00, yr01 and yr02 are also considered to capture the potential
non-random year effect. The reference year for these dummy
variables
 is 2003. The log-linear regression model i (xi ; ) =
m
exp
j=0 j xji is assumed for the expected number of counts
on section i.

0.03523
0.86109
0.26196
0.32274
0.37102
0.69053

5.1. Modelling accident counts for curves

0.01243
0.84796
0.26772
0.31986
0.38248
0.68724

NMH

5. Estimation results

1.45703
0.86881
0.33793
0.40863
0.28510
0.69566

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

Constant
Log of the section length (km)
Curvature (km1 )
AADT/10,000
Year 1999 (dummy 0, 1)
Year 2000 (dummy 0, 1)

664

17.4
12.0
22.9
27.3
11.9
1.67
0.71
0.75
0.15
0.08
509.31
500.61
494.63
483.19
469.56
463.60
462.76
463.24
463.22
463.52
463.55
0.02615
0.19534

Slope

Friction

Sight

0.61921

Yr2001

5.1.2. Severe accident counts

The previous analyses, relative to all crashes occurring on
curves, were repeated for severe crashes only. The findings
are quite similar to the former ones. The significant variables
affecting severe crashes are: L, 1/R and AADT. A non-random
year effect, due to variables yr00 and yr99, is also revealed.
In Table 4 parameter estimates and explained fraction of variation are given. The NMH model was found to be the model
with the highest explanatory power. The fraction of total variation explained by the NMH model is 12.9%. However, it is
worth noting that the fraction of systematic variation explained
amounts to 81.4%.

0.03938

Yr2002

0.02954

GLRT
Log-LKH

P value

assumed to be proportional to the section length, both NB and

NM models increase their explanatory power. The fraction of
total variation explained (R2D ) by the regression model with the
highest explanatory power, i.e. the NMH model, is 18.5%. However, it is worth noting that the fraction of systematic variation
explained (R2D /PD2 ) amounts to 68.7%.
For the NMH model, the sequence of regression models and
parameters developed by the stepwise procedure is shown in
Table 5 (estimates at model convergence are in bold).
Goodness-of-fit was also examined with the Cumulative
Residuals (CURE) methods. The plots of cumulative residuals
against each variable were found to oscillate around zero and
contained within 2 * standard deviations, as required.

665

3.03E05
5.42E04
1.72E06
1.78E07
5.54E04
1.96E01
3.98E01
3.87E01
7.00E01
7.75E01

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

0.38151
0.37999
0.38205
0.35773
0.36822
0.37156
0.60843
0.68686
0.68671
0.68690
0.70106
0.67360
0.67695
0.34486
0.35244
0.32660
0.33554
0.32329
0.31542
0.32678
0.32683
0.15967
0.27726
0.27950
0.27017
0.24766
0.26885
0.26663
0.27027
0.27025
0.59609
0.73897
0.80636
0.80742
0.80311
0.81372
0.80088
0.80430
0.80315
0.80314
9.382
11.90
14.12
18.20
18.18
18.25
18.62
18.57
18.59
18.25
18.25
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

0.13625
0.91513
0.78127
0.30633
0.23371
0.07130
0.06550
0.06432
0.25101
0.08520
0.08198

Yr1999
Yr2000
AADT
Curvature
Log-length
Constant

5.2.1. Total accident counts

The stepwise procedure based on GLRT was implemented
and the Poisson regression model was fitted as first. The value
of the Z statistic (1) was calculated at convergence of the stepwise procedure. Since Z = 7.325, there is clear evidence that
overdispersion is present and, consequently the NB model and
the NM model (with their generalizations) were considered in
the subsequent analysis. When applying Poisson and NB regression models it was assumed that there are N = 147 5 = 735
independent observations of accident counts from a Poisson

Step

The data set for tangents consists of an annual number of total

and severe accidents registered in n = 5 years from 1999 to 2003
on N = 147 segments, 73 and 74 segments for the two carriageways, respectively. The candidate set of explanatory variables
is: length (L), annual average daily traffic (AADT), side friction
coefficient (SFC), longitudinal slope (LS) and junctions. As for
curves, Table 1 shows that a non-random year effect might be
present also for tangents. Thus, dummy variables are also considered to capture the potential year effect. Moreover, since the presence of a junction represents
point hazard,
model
 the regression


a
m1
i (xi ; ) = exp(0 x0 ) exp
j=1 j xji + m xmi with both
a multiplicative and an additive component is assumed for the
expected number of counts on section i. Note that this model is
no longer in the class of Generalized Linear Models, since no
link function exists which is linear in .

Table 5
Stepwise procedure: sequence of models and parameters for NMH model (curvesall crashes)

5.2. Modelling accident counts for tangents

0.823
0.811
0.789
0.778
0.762
0.608
0.587

8.957
507.50
0.216
8.290
510.01
0.210
6.339
511.37
0.207
513.37
0.205
13.772
135.83
0.259
5.472
142.04
0.250

0.556
0.475

8.957
146.81
0.243
4.227
151.116
0.236
175.60
0.203

Overdispersion parameter
Log likelihood
R2D , explained fraction of
total variation
R2D /PD2 , explained fraction
of systematic variation

0.21344
0.21327
0.22190
0.21404
0.21343

Constant
Log of the section length
(km)
AADT/10,000
AADT/10,000 junctions
(1 if present, 0 if absent)
Year 2000

0.571

13.366
506.09
0.219

0.42575
0.50628
0.42685
0.47142
0.40574
0.45428
0.41867
0.44513
0.42610
0.44149
0.23960
0.22848
0.22554
0.21715
0.22096
0.22066
0.23105
0.22172

0.23198
0.23190

1.38939
0.77791
1.35319
0.74731
1.36559
0.77679
1.37427
0.79270
0.50347
0.85729
0.50931
0.81380
0.52609
0.86044
0.53912
0.83745
0.53501
0.86883

NM
NBH
NB
Poisson
NB

NBH

NM

NMH
Poisson

In order to analyse the rain effect on the number of crashes,

a data set was constructed which consisted of the number of
accidents occurring in each day of the 5-year monitoring period
from 1999 to 2003 along with the road pavement status, as was
illustrated in Section 3. A regression analysis, based on the Negative Binomial model, was then applied to curves and tangents.
The candidate set of explanatory variables for curves and tangents was the same as in Sections 5.1 and 5.2 plus a dummy
(0, 1) variable which indicates whether in each day the conventional status of the pavement surface was dry or wet,
respectively.

Severe crashes

5.3. Modelling rain effect on accident counts

Table 6
Parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit measures for tangents

5.2.2. Severe accident counts

The previous analyses, relative to all crashes occurring on tangents, were repeated for severe crashes only. The findings are
similar to the former ones. The significant variables affecting
severe crashes are: L, AADT and the presence of a junction. No
systematic year effect is revealed, however. Table 6 gives parameter estimates and explained fraction of variation for severe
crashes occurring on tangents. It is worth noting that the fraction of systematic variation explained by using the NMH model
amounts to 82.3%.

NMH

and a NB distribution, respectively. When applying the NM

regression model it was assumed that there are N = 147 independent clusters, each with n = 5 observations from a NM
distribution.
For all the models the estimated coefficients have the expected
sign. The number of accidents per year and carriageway occurring on tangents increases with length, annual average daily
traffic and the presence of a junction, while it decreases with side
friction coefficient and longitudinal slope. For all the regression
models significant variables affecting accidents are: L, AADT
and the presence of a junction, whereas SFC and LS variables do
not appear to be statistically significant at the 5% level. A nonrandom year effect on accident counts is also revealed, since the
variable yr00 appears to be highly significant.
Table 6 shows the parameter estimates at convergence of the
stepwise procedure for all the models considered in the analysis.
Models are ordered by increasing explanatory power.
The Negative Multinomial model appears to bring about a
clear improvement in the fit of data over the Negative Binomial model. When the overdispersion parameter in each section
is assumed to be proportional to the section length, both NB
and NM models increase their explanatory power to an extent
which is by far higher than for curves. The fraction of total
variation explained (R2D ) by the regression model with the highest explanatory power, i.e. the NMH model, is 25.9%. The
fraction of systematic variation explained (R2D /PD2 ) amounts to
60.8%.
For the NMH model, the sequence of regression models and
parameters developed by the stepwise procedure is shown in
Table 7 (estimates at model convergence are in bold).
The Cumulative Residuals Plots also reflected the model fit.

1.40044
0.76232

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

All crashes

666

0.08981
0.02197
0.21344
0.21464
0.21288
0.23603
0.24023
0.18960
0.24459
0.22848
0.21890
0.22952
0.22324
0.22918
0.24020

0.07488

Yr2000
Junction

667

5.3.1. Total accidents counts

A total of 273 accidents occurred when the road pavement
surface was wet, 98 of which on curves and 175 on tangents.
Thus, accidents on curves represented 35.9% of total accidents
under wet conditions. A stepwise procedure was implemented
and the same variables which were found to be significant on
a yearly scale were confirmed to be significant also on a daily
scale. In addition, wet pavement was found to be a highly significant factor in increasing the number of crashes. In fact, when
road pavement surface is wet, the expected number of crashes
increases by a factor 2.32 for tangents and by a factor 2.70 for
curves relative to dry surface conditions.
5.3.2. Severe accident counts
Ninety-seven severe accidents occurred when pavement surface was wet, 39 of which on curves and 58 on tangents. Thus,
accidents on curves represented 40.2% of severe accidents under
wet conditions. A stepwise procedure was implemented and the
same variables which were found to be significant on a yearly
scale were confirmed to be significant also on a daily scale.
In addition, wet pavement was found to be a highly significant
factor in increasing the number of crashes. In fact, when the
road pavement surface is wet, the expected number of crashes
increases by a factor 2.81 for tangents and by a factor 3.26 for
curves relative to dry surface conditions. These results also show
that a wet surface proportionally increases severe crashes more
than damage-only crashes.
It should be noted that the above estimates depend on assumptions about drying time, so that their accuracy might be limited.
These results, however, appear to be in accordance with the literature (see, e.g. Eisenberg, 2004) in which relative risks of crash
during rain varying from 1.6 to about 4 were reported. Table 8
shows the parameter estimates at convergence of the stepwise
procedure for the Negative Binomial model.
6. Model equations

0.29497
0.23404
0.23960
0.23813
0.23927
0.23508
0.23888
0.23588

For multilane road sections containing curves, the accidentprediction models for each carriageway are:

3.457
7.502
11.09
13.78
13.77
13.81
13.92
13.78
13.79
13.78

0.96813
1.33758
0.39950
0.47637
0.50347
0.54376
0.50505
0.53827
0.52941
0.48707

0.90237
0.86380
0.85591
0.85729
0.85839
0.86022
0.85640
0.85584
0.85516

total crashes:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Constant

Log-length

AADT

6.1. Curves

Step

Table 7
Stepwise procedure: sequence of models and parameters for NMH model (tangentsall crashes)

Friction

Slope

Yr1999

0.09670

Yr2001

0.11240

94.2
40.5
18.9
7.34
0.02
0.86
1.50
2.04
1.42
216.28
169.20
148.95
139.50
135.83
135.82
135.40
135.08
134.81
135.12

2.92E22
1.96E10
1.38E05
6.74E03
8.88E01
3.54E01
2.21E01
1.53E01
2.33E01

GLRT
Log-LKH
Yr2002

P value

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

= exp[0.07130 + 0.80311 ln L + 0.27017

1/R + 0.32660 AADT 104 ]
severe crashes:
= exp[1.45703 + 0.86881 ln L + 0.33793
1/R + 0.40863 AADT 104 ]
where is the predicted crashes/year and carriageway, L the
curve length in kilometres, 1/R the curvature in km1 and AADT
is the annual average daily traffic in vehicles/day.

668

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

Table 8
Parameter estimates for the regression model with a surface status indicator
All crashes

Constant
Log of the section length (km)
Curvature (km1 )
AADT/10,000
Surface status (1 if wet, 0 if dry)
AADT/10,000 junctions (1 if present, 0 if absent)
Year 1999 (dummy 0, 1)
Year 2000 (dummy 0, 1)
Overdispersion parameter

Severe crashes

Tangents

Curves

Tangents

Curves

5.47635
0.87122

6.01594
0.84834
0.26664
0.32652
0.99436

7.33916
0.80626

7.53979
0.90707
0.34003
0.41839
1.18186

0.24076
0.84363
0.23873
0.19606
1.160

As an example, for a curve segment with L = 0.275 km

(ln L = 1.291), 1/R = 2 km1 (R = 0.500 km), AADT = 20,000
vehicles/day, one estimates = 1.089 total crashes/year and
= 0.338 severe crashes/year.
6.2. Tangents
For multilane road sections containing tangents, the accidentprediction models for each carriageway are
total crashes:
= exp(0.50347)[exp(0.85729 ln L + 0.23960
AADT 104 ) + 0.22848 AADT 104 J]
severe crashes:
= exp(1.40044)[exp(0.76232 ln L + 0.42575
AADT 104 ) + 0.50628 AADT 104 J]
where is the predicted crashes/year and carriageway, L the
tangent length in kilometres, AADT the annual average daily
traffic in vehicles/day and J is the junction (1 if present, 0 if
absent).
As an example, for a tangent segment with L = 1.2 km
(ln L = 0.1823), AADT = 45,000 vehicle/day, in absence of
a junction one estimates = 5.686 total crashes/year ( =
1.924 severe crashes/year) and in presence of a junction one estimates = 6.064 total crashes/year ( = 2.486
severe crashes/year). Note that, in presence of a junction the
expected number of total crashes increases by a factor of 1.066,
whereas the average number of severe crashes increases by a
factor of 1.292.
7. Summary and conclusions
The writing of this paper was primarily motivated by the
need to quantify, for the first time for Italian multilane roads, the
safety effects on the expected number of total and severe crashes
of all the following variables: traffic flow, road geometry, sight
distance, pavement surface friction and rain precipitation, with a
view to suggesting countermeasures for improving road safety.

0.37727
0.66717
1.242

0.42121
1.03324
0.44289

0.960

0.61426
0.773

A further point of interest was to detect the more appropriate

statistical regression tool for treating this kind of data.
On the basis of the 5-year monitoring period extending from
1999 to 2003 carried out on the four-lane median-divided motorway it may be concluded that the number of both total and
severe accidents, per year and carriageway, occurring on curves
increases with the length, the curvature and the annual average
daily traffic. These accidents decrease, in contrast, with: sight
distance, pavement friction and longitudinal slope. The set of
significant variables affecting accidents is: L, 1/R and AADT,
whereas SD, SFC and LS variables do not appear to be statistically significant at the 5% level. The results regarding the effect
of the curvature could be used as a guide for designing horizontal curves. The Negative Multinomial regression model with
overdispersion parameter proportional to section length proved
to be the model with the highest explanatory power. The fraction
of total variation explained for total (severe) crashes is 18.5%
(12.9%), while the fraction of systematic variation explained
amounts to 68.71% (81.4%).
For tangents, the number of both total and severe accidents per
year and carriageway increases with: L, AADT and the presence
of junctions, whereas it decreases with SFC and LS. The set of
significant variables affecting accidents is: L, AADT and junctions, whereas pavement friction and longitudinal slope variables do not appear to be statistically significant at the 5% level.
The Negative Multinomial regression model with overdispersion
parameter proportional to section length proved to be the model
with the highest explanatory power. For total (severe) crashes
the fraction of total variation explained is 25.9% (21.9%), while
the fraction of systematic variation explained amounts to 60.8%
(82.3%). It is interesting to note that the presence of a junction on a road section seems more especially to increase the
expected number of severe crashes. These latter findings indicate that road engineers should pay considerable attention to
junctions. For example, serious consideration should be given
to the use of acceleration and deceleration lanes that are of sufficient length to accommodate speed changes, and the weaving
and maneuvering of traffic.
The comparison among Poisson, Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial distributions showed that: (i) Poisson distribution is inappropriate for modelling the random variation
of the number of crashes since there is clear evidence that
overdispersion is present; (ii) Negative Multinomial distribu-

C. Caliendo et al. / Accident Analysis and Prevention 39 (2007) 657670

tion has a decidedly higher explanatory power than Negative

Binomial distribution, thus supporting the hypothesis that the
latter model is inappropriate when multiple observations for the
same road section at different years are analysed; (iii) both Negative Binomial and Negative Multinomial model increase their
explanatory power when the overdispersion parameter in each
section is assumed to be proportional to the section length. As
a result, Negative Multinomial distribution is suggested as the
most appropriate statistical regression tool for modelling longitudinal crash data.
Rain was found to be a highly significant variable, affecting the expected number of total (severe) accidents by a factor
2.32 (2.81) for tangents and by a factor 2.70 (3.26) for curves.
Thus, these results seem to show that a wet surface proportionally increases severe crashes more than damage-only crashes.
Even if the accuracy of these estimates might be limited as
approximations have to be used for exposure to a wet pavement, nevertheless these results clearly indicate that the added
risk of an accident in wet pavement conditions is substantial.
Besides, by comparing accident percentages it appears that rain
tends to increase proportionally the number of accidents occurring on curves more than ones occurring on tangents. The higher
number of accidents predicted on a wet pavement should suggest appropriate countermeasures such as pavement resurfacing
with porous asphalt as surface course. In fact, porous asphalt
prevents many wet-skidding or hydroplaning accidents, besides
improving (as a consequence of the rapid removal of water) the
visibility of pavement markings, which is generally recognized
as an important factor in preventing accidents during rain precipitation.
In the light of the above results, the models developed for
Italian motorways in this paper appear to be useful for many
applications such as the detection of critical factors (an example in the present case study being the presence of a junction),
the estimation of accident reductions due to infrastructure and
pavement improvement, and the predictions of accident counts
when comparing different design options. Thus, we are reasonably confident that this research may represent a point of
reference for the engineers in adjusting or designing multilane
roads.
With regard to the above-mentioned fraction of total variation
explained it is worth noting that the rather low observed values of
R2D are not surprising in relationships where the number of accidents is correlated only to traffic flow, roads factors and weather.
In fact, there are several variables not considered in the analysis such as lighting, vehicle, and above all human behaviour,
that are heavily influential on accidents counts. The major point
of interest is human behaviour that many researchers consider to be the predominant factor in accidents. Unfortunately,
information for quantifying the effects of human behaviourroad
interface on accidents is currently wanting. The problem seems
complex and only a multi-disciplinary approach with active
coordination among disciplines in the field of both road and
human behaviour may help. Thus the proposed accident models
which for the most part relate to traffic flow and road geometry
and rainfall, might be usefully integrated with human component variables, thereby increasing the explained fraction of total

669

variation considerably. Thus, research needs to be addressed

to an ever increasing degree through combined actions that
take into account both these two predominant factors (man
and road).
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Management Agency
of Naples-Salerno Motorway (SAM) for providing data relating to accidents, traffic and pavement surface conditions, and
the Functional Hydrogeological Centre of Campanian Region
for providing rain precipitation data. The paper benefited from
the input of two anonymous referees. Their comments proved
invaluable.
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