Scenario Summary

Best Case

Expected Case

Changing Cells:
Annual_Sales_Growth
6%
4%
CGS
30%
40%
Result Cells:
NPV
7685.76
2007.15
IRR
22.34%
14.85%
PI
1.27
1.07
MIRR
17.41%
13.51%
Probability
15.00%
65.00%
Expected NPV
1568.23
Prob of Neg NPV
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.

Worst Case

-1%
50%
-4446.40
5.11%
0.85
8.32%
20.00%
20.00%

price
ship/install
s/l
sal val
incr inv
incr a/r
incr a/p
incr n/p
sales
cgs
g/a
unit price
sales g
economic
mkt val
T
c cap

25000
3000
3
1000
800
600
200
300
18000
30%
2000
6
6%
5
400
35%
12%

calc
dep base
ann dep
NWC

28000
9000
900
0

Revenues
less CGS
Less G/A
EBDT
less Dep
EBT
less Taxes
NI
plus Dep
OCF
Asset
Change in
CFFA
NPV
IRR
PI
MIRR

-28000
-900
-28900

at salv
mkt val
bv
gain(loss)
tax cons
at salv

1
18000
5400
2000
10600
9000
1600
560
1040
9000
10040

10040

2
19080
5724
2000
11356
9000
2356
824.6
1531.4
9000
10531.4

400
1000
-600 loss
-210 saving
610

3
20224.8
6067.44
2000
12157.36
9000
3157.36
1105.076
2052.284
9000
11052.28

4
5
21438.29 22724.59
6431.486 6817.376
2000
2000
13006.8 13907.21
13006.8
4552.381
8454.421
0
8454.421

13907.21
4867.523
9039.686
0
9039.686
610
900
10531.4 11052.28 8454.421 10549.69

7685.76 This project should be accepted bc we have a positive NPV

22.34%
1.27
17.41%
22.34%

7685.76

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

12.55%
9.92%
7.21%
4.38%
1.44%
-1.65%
-4.92%
-8.41%
-12.17%
-16.30%
-20.93%
-26.32%
Err:523
Err:523

14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000

-3000.983
-4584.029
-6167.075
-7750.12
-9333.166
-10916.21
-12499.26
-14082.3
-15665.35
-17248.4
-18831.44
-20414.49
-21997.53
-23580.58

-2604.873
-4216.213
-5827.552
-7438.892
-9050.231
-10661.57
-12272.91
-13884.25
-15495.59
-17106.93
-18718.27
-20329.61
-21940.95
-23552.29

-2201.202
-3841.375
-5481.548
-7121.721
-8761.894
-10402.07
-12042.24
-13682.41
-15322.59
-16962.76
-18602.93
-20243.11
-21883.28
-23523.45

-1789.857
-3459.412
-5128.966
-6798.521
-8468.076
-10137.63
-11807.19
-13476.74
-15146.3
-16815.85
-18485.41
-20155
-21824.52
-23494.07

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

-1370.727
-3070.22
-4769.712
-6469.205
-8168.698
-9868.191
-11567.68
-13267.18
-14966.67
-16666.16
-18365.65
-20065.15
-21764.64
-23464.13

-943.7
-2673.695
-4403.689
-6133.684
-7863.679
-9593.674
-11323.67
-13053.66
-14783.66
-16513.65
-18243.65
-19973.64
-21703.64
-23433.63

-508.6629
-2269.732
-4030.801
-5791.869
-7552.938
-9314.007
-11075.08
-12836.14
-14597.21
-16358.28
-18119.35
-19880.42
-21641.49
-23402.56

-65.50151
-1858.225
-3650.948
-5443.671
-7236.394
-9029.117
-10821.84
-12614.56
-14407.29
-16200
-17992.73
-19785.46
-21578.18
-23370.9

385.8992
-1439.067
-3264.033
-5089
-6913.965
-8738.931
-10563.9
-12388.86
-14213.83
-16038.8
-17863.76
-19688.73
-21513.69
-23338.66

price
ship/inst
MACRS
incr inv
incr ar
incr ap
incr np
sales
CGS
G/A
Unit price
Sales g
economic
mkt val
T
c cap
Calc
Dep Base
Revenue
NWC
Revenues
less CGS
Less G/A
EBDT
less Dep
EBT
less Taxes
NI
plus Dep
OCF
Asset
Change in
CFFA
NPV
IRR

25000
3000
5 years
800
600
200
300
3100 units
40%
2000
6
4%
5
400
35%
16%

28000
18600
900
0

-28000
-900
-28900

1
18600
7440
2000
9160
5600
3560
1246
2314
5600
7914

7914

2
19344
7737.6
2000
9606.4
8960
646.4
226.24
420.16
8960
9380.16

3
20117.76
8047.104
2000
10070.66
5376
4694.656
1643.13
3051.526
5376
8427.526

4
20922.47
8368.988
2000
10553.48
3220
7333.482
2566.719
4766.763
3220
7986.763

9380.16 8427.526 7986.763

-515.51 Don't accept project because of negative NPV

15.25%

1000
1500
2000
2500
3000

15.25%
-15.01%
-6.45%
1.02%
7.78%
14.04%

-515.51
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000

-2%
-18543.77
-14841.17
-11138.56
-7435.956
-3733.351

-1%
-18416.64
-14650.47
-10884.3
-7118.132
-3351.962

3500
4000
4500
5000

19.94%
25.56%
30.96%
36.18%

3500
4000
4500
5000

-30.74583
3671.859
7374.464
11077.07

414.2079
4180.378
7946.548
11712.72

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

3-year
0.333
0.445
0.148
0.074

5-year
0.2
0.32
0.192
0.115
0.115
0.058

7-year
0.143
0.245
0.175
0.125
0.089
0.089
0.089
0.045

10-year
0.1
0.18
0.144
0.115
0.092
0.074
0.066
0.066
0.065
0.065
0.033

1%
-18155.21
-14258.33
-10361.45
-6464.564
-2567.681

2%
-18020.85
-14056.78
-10092.71
-6128.648
-2164.581

3%
-17884
-13851.51
-9819.018
-5786.527
-1754.037

4%
-17744.63
-13642.46
-9540.288
-5438.115
-1335.942

5
21759.37
8703.748
2000
11055.62
3220
7835.622
2742.468
5093.154
3220
8313.154
828.4
900
10041.55

0%
-18287.13
-14456.21
-10625.29
-6794.363
-2963.44

5%
-17602.72
-13429.59
-9256.453
-5083.321
-910.1895

6%
-17458.21
-13212.83
-8967.443
-4722.058
-476.6734

867.484 1329.203 1799.485 2278.454 2766.232

4698.408 5226.086 5763.552 6310.945 6868.405
8529.331 9122.97 9727.619 10343.44 10970.58
12360.25 13019.85 13691.69 14375.93 15072.75

3262.942
7436.074
11609.21
15782.34

3768.711
8014.096
12259.48
16504.86

3)
price
s/l
sal val
mkt val
T
c cap
dep exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

22000
5
1000
2500
30%
12%
4200
21000
1000
1500 gain
450 liab

4)
price
s/l
sal val
mkt val
T
c cap
dep exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

25000
5
5000
4000
30%
12%
4000
20000
5000
-1000 loss
-300 savings

5)
price
s/l
sal val
mkt val
T
c cap
dep exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

25000
5
0
2500
30%
12%
5000
20000
5000
-2500 loss
-750 savings

Year
1
2
3
4
5
6

3-year
0.333
0.445
0.148
0.074

5-year
0.2
0.32
0.192
0.115
0.115
0.058

6)
price
MACRS
sal val
T
c cap
Year
Depr Exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

22000
5
6000
30%
12%
1
2
4400
7040
20724
1276
4724 gain
1417.2 liab

7)
price
MACRS
sal val
T
c cap
Year
Depr Exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

22000
6
6000
30%
12%
1
2
4400
7040
22000
0
6000 gain
1800 liab

8)
price
MACRS
sal val
T
c cap
Year
Depr Exp
Accum dep
BV
gain/(loss)
tax cons

22000
5
2500
30%
12%
1
2
4400
7040
18194
3806
-1306 loss
-391.8 savings

3
4224

4
2530

5
2530

3
4224

4
2530

5
2530

3
4224

4
2530

6
1276

9)
Incr AP
Decr NP
Incr Inv
Decr AR
NWC chang

2000
3000
800
1200
600 OUTFLOW

10)
Incr AR
Decr Inv
Incr NP
Decr AP
NWC change

11)
15000
10000
-18000

0.2
0.65
0.15

3000
6500
-2700

Probability of NPV being negative

15%

1000
1500
800
1000
-300 INFLOW

12)
disc
year

12%
cash
0
1
2
3

PVI
-5000
9000
3000
-8000

NPV
PI
IRR
IRR 2
MIRR

-266.95
0.98
22.93%
22.93%
11.06%

0
9000
3000
0
$10,427.30

This project should not be accepted because of the negative NPV and an undesirable PI
NPV
10%
-349.36
11%
-306.56
12%
-266.95
13%
-230.36
14%
-196.63
15%
-165.61
16%
-137.15
17%
-111.12
18%
-87.38
19%
-65.81
20%
-46.30
21%
-28.73
22%
-13.02
23%
0.95
24%
13.26
25%
24.00
26%
33.25
27%
41.10
28%
47.61
29%
52.85
30%
56.90
31%
59.80
32%
61.64
33%
62.45
34%
62.29
35%
61.22
36%
59.28
37%
56.52
38%
52.98
39%
48.71
40%
43.73
41%
38.10
42%
31.84

NPV
100.00
50.00
0.00
-50.00
-100.00
-150.00
-200.00
-250.00
-300.00
-350.00
-400.00

43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%

24.99
17.58
9.64
1.20
-7.72
-17.08
-26.86
-37.04

PVO
5000
0
0
8000
$10,694.24
an undesirable PI

13)
year

NPV
PI
IRR
MIRR

disc
8%
proj a
proj b
A-B
0 -100000 -150000
50000
1
60000
70000
-10000
2
40000
50000
-10000
3
20000
20000
0
4
30000
50000
-20000
5
10000
40000
-30000

60000.00
50000.00
40000.00
30000.00
20000.00
10000.00

34582.48 37533.22 -2950.74

1.35
1.25
1.06
24.62%
18.22%
9.77%
14.61%
12.93%
6.77%
NPV(A)
NPV(B)
5% 43217.12 51771.06
6% 40231.41 46824.95
7% 37354.99 42082.66
8% 34582.48 37533.22
9% 31908.81 33166.37
10% 29329.22 28972.50
11% 26839.22 24942.61
12% 24434.60 21068.28
13% 22111.38 17341.57
14% 19865.81 13755.08
15% 17694.35 10301.80
16% 15593.67 6975.20
17% 13560.62 3769.10
18% 11592.21
677.69
19% 9685.63 -2304.50
20% 7838.22 -5182.61
21% 6047.45 -7961.51
22% 4310.93 -10645.77
23% 2626.39 -13239.72
24%
991.70 -15747.44
25%
-595.20 -18172.80
26% -2136.23 -20519.44
27% -3633.23 -22790.82

0.00
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%11%12%13
-10000.00
-20000.00
-30000.00

Crossover
NPV(A)
NPV(B)

9.77%
29901.90
29901.90

Project A should be accepted bc of the higher PI and IRR

Chart Title

% 8% 9% 10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%

he higher PI and IRR

NPV(A)

NPV(B)

year
cash
disc
NPV
PI
IRR
MIRR
16.73%
-70000
-80000
-90000
-100000
-110000
-120000

0
-100000
11%
35277.45
1.35
19.71%
16.73%

1
10000

2
20000

3
30000

4
40000

5
50000

6
60000

6%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

7%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

8%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

9%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

10%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

11%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

12%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

13%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

14%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

15%
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504

15)
MAX
Project
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Total

3500000
NPV

cost
84,334.00
26,881.00
23,162.00
82,598.00
20,590.00
90,404.00
18,163.00
97,682.00
52,063.00
53,911.00
56,323.00
88,349.00
69,352.00

yes=1;no=0
237,005.00
1
766,496.00
0
304,049.00
1
565,178.00
1
108,990.00
0
89,135.00
1
795,664.00
0
814,493.00
1
480,321.00
1
826,610.00
0
734,830.00
0
910,598.00
1
978,621.00
0

$ 518,592.00 $ 3,400,779.00