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Mega Camp 2015 - Market Update - Mykw

The document provides an overview of the US and Canadian housing markets. It discusses topics like home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, the economy and affordability. Graphics show housing market trends have continued with home sales and prices rising in both countries over the past year, while inventory remains balanced.

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Amber Taufen
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6K views31 pages

Mega Camp 2015 - Market Update - Mykw

The document provides an overview of the US and Canadian housing markets. It discusses topics like home sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, the economy and affordability. Graphics show housing market trends have continued with home sales and prices rising in both countries over the past year, while inventory remains balanced.

Uploaded by

Amber Taufen
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MEGA AGENT

Market Update
Gary Keller and Jay Papasan

The U.S. Housing Market

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

Long Term
Trend

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Housing Market Cycles

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Home Sales - Monthly


Home sales have been strong this summer after starting slow early in the year. We are on pace
to have the strongest year for existing home sales since the recession.
June
June

5.4 5.4

5.5
5.3

5.1

5.1
4.8

4.9
4.6 4.6

2013
Source: NAR
10

The U.S. Housing Market

4.7

4.8

4.9

June
5.1
5

5.1

2014
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of Home Sales

5.2
5

5.2

5.1
4.8

5.3
5.1

4.9

2015

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Home Price - Annual


Home price appreciation has averaged 7% since 2011 and looks on track to
be close to that this year if appreciation does not slow down. Prices should
move back into the 4%6% range in the near future, and higher interest rates
will contribute to the return of slower appreciation.
$222

$179

$317
$313
$260

$264

$223 est.

$198
$166

$95

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Source: NAR
11

The U.S. Housing Market

Long-term Average = 4%
Annual Median Home Price (in Thousands)

Trend Line Reset = 4%


Average Growth Since Recovery = 7%

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Months Supply of Inventory

5.1

Jun '13

Sep

4.4

Sellers Mkt

5.5

Balanced

Buyers Mkt

This year we have seen movement back toward a sellers market, spurred by people trying
to take advantage of low rates before they increase.

Dec

Mar
Inventory

Jun '14

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun '15

Balanced = 6 months

Source: NAR
12

The U.S. Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Mortgage Rates - Monthly


Mortgage rates have been slowly rising since the beginning of the year as the Federal Reserve
debates when to adjust their rates.

4.46%

4.80%

4.05%

3.67%
3.35%

Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Jan '14

Jul '14

Jan '15

Jul '15

Source: Freddie Mac


13

The U.S. Housing Market

Monthly Mortgage Rate

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

U.S. Economy

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

GDP - Quarterly
The economy got off to another slow start this year, but has begun to pick up again.
3.9

3.1 2.7

1.4

1.3

4.6

3.9
1.7

2.9

2.7 2.5

2.7
0.8

0.2

3
1.9

1.9
0.5 0.1

-2.7

3.8

2.3

2.1
1.1

-0.5

0.6
-0.9

-1.5

-1.9

4.6 4.3

-5.4

Q1 '07
Source: BEA
15

U.S. Economy

Q4 '07

-8.2
Q3 '08
Q2 '09

Q1 10

Q4 '10

Q3 '11

Q2 '12

Q1 '13

Q4 '13

Q3 '14

Q2 '15

Real GDP Growth Rate, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted (Percentage)


2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Unemployment - Monthly
Unemployment has moved back into the range of what can be considered normal.

10%

5.7% 5.3%

5%

Jan '08

Jan '09

Jan '10

Jan '11

Jan '12

Jan '13

Jan '14

Jan '15 Jun '15

Source: BLS
16

U.S. Economy

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Inflation
Inflation remains below the target rate and will be watched closely
as the Federal Reserve considers rate increases.
4.8%
4.5%

2%

1.73%
1.4%
1.0%
-.02%

'89

'91

'93

'95

'97

CPI (Includes Energy and Food)

'99

'01

'03

'05

'07

Core CPI (Excludes Energy and Food)

'09

'11

'13

'15

Target = 2%

Source: BEA
17

U.S. Economy

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Special Topics

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Affordability - NAR Affordability Index


Affordability has been declining since January as prices continue to outpace wage growth.

181
167
154

156

Jun

Jul

166

170

179
172

168

166
160

159

153
Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

2014 - 2015
Source: NAR

19

Special Topics

Affordability Definition: A value of 100 means that a family earning the median income has
exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above
100 signifies that a family earning the median income has more than enough income.

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

New Home Construction


Based on inventories, we still need to see more construction.
1,082

648

Historical

'14

706

Jan

600

623

Feb

Mar

782

719

691

693

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

New Homes (in Thousands)


20

Special Topics

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

CANADA

Housing Market

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

CANADA

Home Sales - Monthly


After a slowdown at the end of 2014, home sales have ticked up for most of 2015.

39K

41K
36K

43K
38K

Jul '13 Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '14 Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '15 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '15

Total Monthly Home Sales


22

Canadian Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

CANADA

Home Price - Monthly


Prices in Canada have continued to increase, with the largest gains concentrated
in Toronto and Vancouver.

$389K

$387K

Jul '13

Sep

Nov

Jan '14

$401K

$399K

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan '15

$438K

Mar

May

Jul '15

Average Monthly Home Price (Canadian Dollars, in Thousands)


23

Canadian Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

CANADA

Inventory - Monthly
Canadian inventory has remained in balanced territory throughout the year, but has been
closer to a sellers market than the previous year.

Sellers

60%

52%

53%

50%

57%

40%

Balanced

54%

Buyers
Jul '13 Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '14Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJan '15Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '15
Source: CREA
Monthly Single Family Home Sales
40%
60%
24

Canadian Housing Market

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

CANADA

Mortgage Rates
Rates have declined in Canada this year after the central bank cut rates early in January
to counter the effects of falling oil prices.
Yearly

13.4

Monthly

9.2
8.4
7.1

Average Annual Mortgage Rate (Percentage)


25

Canadian Housing Market

y
Ma

Ma
r

n'

15

4.6

Ja

No
v

Se
p

l
Ju

y
Ma

Ma
r

14

n'

Ja

'1

1
1

9
0

7
0

5
0

3
0

1
0

9
9

7
9

5
9

3
9

1
9

4.9

4.8

Ju
l
Au
g

5.3

'14 - '15 Actual Monthly Mortgage Rate (Percentage)


2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Industry

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Traditional Model

29

Industry

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Proposed Upstream Model

30

Industry

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

New Loan Disclosure Forms Postponed


from August 1 to October 3, 2015
1. The implementation of the simpler, more integrated loan disclosure forms has been postponed
over concerns that the new process may delay closings:
1. New rules increase mandatory consumer review period from 1 day to 3 days before closing.
2. In anticipation of delays as lenders and settlement agents adapt to new rules, NAR recommends:

1. Adding 15 days to normal closing times.


2. Completing your walk-through as soon as possible to avoid last-minute changes that may
require lender approval.

31

Industry

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Tech Trends of 2015


1. Listing Marketing Enhancements - live video showings/open houses and 3D tours are
becoming more mainstream and driving online traffic.
2. Mobile Is the Majority - more than half of real estate traffic is on mobile devices and can
represent as much as 75% of traffic on weekends.
3. Real Estate Crowdfunding - one of the fastest-growing segments of crowd capitalism. U.S.
real estate funding increased to more than $1 billion in 2014. Some of the big players in this
space include Fundrise and Realty Mogul.
4. Big Data and Predictive Analytics - New technology is using online behavioral data to identify
stronger Internet leads and predicting how likely users are to buy/sell. This has the potential to
vastly improve online conversation rates which have historically performed under 3%. Some
players in this space include SmartZip and Brytecore.

33

Industry

2015 Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

Go to myKW now to download


your copy of the Market Update!

Keller Williams Realty, Inc.

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