Project Cost Estimating Guide - Practice
Project Cost Estimating Guide - Practice
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Foreword
WSDOTs vision is to be the best at providing a sustainable and
integrated multimodal transportation system. Its mission is
to provide and support safe, reliable, and cost-effective
transportation options to improve livable communities and
economic vitality for people and businesses.
Estimators should
be shielded from
pressures to keep
estimates within
desired amounts.
This update to the WSDOT Cost Estimating Guide is part of an
ongoing process to keep technical information relevant and
current, as well as provide consistency with the departments vision.
More of an art than a science, cost estimating requires a thorough understanding
of project scope, past price history, and current market conditions, as well as with
a generous application of human judgment.
Key goals of the estimating process described in this manual include:
1. Departmentwide priority on estimating, managing, and controlling costs:
Fully developed and integrated policies, processes, and tools for cost
estimation, management, and control
Use of processes and tools during the planning, scoping, design, and
letting phases
Page i
Foreword
5. Clear accountability:
This manual is intended as a guide for developing and managing project cost. It
provides policies, rules, procedures, and tools to aid WSDOT staff in preparing project
cost estimates and managing cost throughout WSDOTs project development process.
Although the manual is primarily written for project managers and estimators, it is
strongly recommended that others involved in WSDOTs project delivery activities
familiarize themselves with this information.
The term "project cost estimate," as used during the project development process,
includes all direct capital outlay costs, including right of way, structures, and
landscaping, but does not normally include indirect capital outlay support costs.
Project cost estimates should be as accurate as possible. Estimates should never be
artificially reduced to stay within the funding limits, nor should they be reduced to
make available more funding for region projects. Likewise, project cost estimates
should not be artificially raised beyond the contingency percentages provided for
in this manual unless adequately justified.
Cost estimating and cost management tools continue to be developed and will be
added to the departments estimating tool box as they become available. Please note
that while cost estimating in support of design-bid-build projects is covered in depth in
this manual, there are certain other conditions, such as design-build project delivery,
accelerated projects, and accelerated estimates, which are not addressed in detail.
Important Notice
The detailed estimate of any phase of an estimate shall not be disclosed to the public
and will be kept confidential until the end of the bid opening.
Page ii
Definitions
A comprehensive glossary for cost risk estimating management is posted at:
www.wsdot.wa.gov/publications/fulltext/cevp/glossary.pdf
Key Terms
Allowance Additional resources included in an estimate to cover the cost of known
but undefined requirements for an activity or work item. Allowance is a base cost item.
Base Cost Estimate The term base cost estimate was developed by WSDOT for cost
risk analysis and represents the reviewed and/or validated project cost estimate to be
used in the quantitative risk analysis for a project. The base cost represents the cost that
can reasonably be expected if the project materializes as planned, including PE, RW, and
CN costs. The base cost estimate is unbiased and neutralit is not optimistic and it is
not conservative. It does not include any risks, but does include the WSDOT standard
construction contingency, since that amount is based upon historical usage. Base costs
reported to program management shall be in current-year dollars (the un-inflated
estimate). Refer to the Plans Preparation Manual 800.03(2).
Baseline The approved time-phased plan (for a project, a work breakdown structure
component, work package, or schedule activity), plus or minus approved project scope,
cost, schedule, and technical changes. Generally refers to the current baseline, but may
refer to the original or some other baseline. Usually used with a modifier (e.g., cost
baseline, schedule baseline, performance measurement baseline, technical baseline).
Baseline Preliminary Engineering (PE) The effort (budget/cost) of taking a project
from planning through the scoping and design phases of project development. Planning
and scoping typically have separate budgets but are encompassed under Design or
Preliminary Engineering (PE). The terms Design or Design Phase are sometimes
used interchangeably with PE.
Basis of Estimate (BOE) Documentation to enable the agency to easily track changes
to project scope, cost, and schedule. A well-documented estimate basis and
documentation of assumptions used can eliminate overlap of future estimate
assumptions. This document provides a trail about what is known about the project.
This allows project knowns as well as unknowns to be clearly identified. This
documentation is important because multiple estimators may be involved on the
project; complex projects in particular take years to develop and estimates must be
completed multiple times.
Page iii
Definitions
Page iv
Contents
Foreword
.................................................................................................................................................... i
Chapter 2
2-1
2-2
2-3
2-4
2-5
2-6
2-7
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
4-1
4-2
4-3
Planning.................................................................................................................................... 4-5
4-4
4-5
Design..................................................................................................................................... 4-10
4-6
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
6-1
6-2
6-3
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
8-1
8-2
8-3
8-4
8-5
Chapter 9
Page v
Contents
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10-6
10-7
10-8
10-9
11-2
11-3
11-4
11-5
Page vi
Chapter 1
Purpose
Cost estimating 1 is the predictive process used to quantify, cost, and price the
resources required by the scope of the project, to better manage budgets and deliver
projects that do not exceed the identified scope, and that are on time throughout
the development process.
The need to solidify the estimation process can be seen in four areas:
1. State financial plan
2. Creation of public satisfaction and a positive response
3. Project control
4. Problems currently being encountered
The state financial plan is affected as cost estimates are used to obtain and allocate
funding for the overruns of the estimated project costs. This leads to the second
reason for the need for cost estimates: influencing public opinion.
Public satisfaction is increased if transportation projects show and prove to the
general public that they are timely and within budget. Public declaration of the
estimated cost of projects needs to be thoughtfully provided only after care is taken
to produce a well-documented, quality estimate.
Project control relies on cost estimates to help keep projects within the appropriate
fiscal boundaries. Although not necessarily a check and balance format, the
existence of the original estimate will keep the project from growing and expanding
beyond its spending limit.
As projects encounter problems, and their estimates come under fire, great scrutiny
is given to the project and its associated estimates. The ability to confront and solve
problems and obstacles relies in large part on the quality of the estimate and the
documentation, which, if done properly, will provide critical support to project
success.
Page 1-1
Purpose
Chapter 1
The reliability of project cost estimates at every stage in the project development
process is necessary for responsible fiscal management. Unreliable cost estimates
result in severe problems in WSDOT programming and budgeting, affecting staffing
and budgeting decisions that could impair effective use of department resources.
Communication with decision makers on critical budget issues is also adversely
affected.
This manual provides guidance and instruction to design staff and project managers
for a consistent approach to cost estimating. At the same time, it provides guidance
on how to treat the common and recurring challenges encountered in the estimating
process.
The manual provides cost estimating data and useful links to cost estimating resource
materials that may be found on WSDOT intranet websites. It also provides
considerations, tips, and cautions regarding the different phases of an estimate.
Page 1-2
Chapter 2
2-1
Introduction
Projects benefit from following a thoughtful and deliberate process when developing
project cost estimates. The process presented in Figure 2-1 describes the way WSDOT
develops its project cost estimates. It is applied to all phases of project delivery,
starting with the planning phase estimate and ending with the Plans, Specifications,
and Estimates (PS&E) phase (or ad ready).
Each phase of an estimate may require different estimating inputs, methods,
techniques, and tools. The task of cost estimating, by its very nature, requires the
application of prudent judgment, from the initiation to the completion. Following
is a short description of each step in the cost estimating process.
2-2
2-3
Page 2-1
Chapter 2
WSDOT has internal specialty groups that should be consulted within their respective
areas of expertise when preparing baseline estimates.
The baseline estimate is also dependent on the estimated project schedule. The
estimated schedule should be attached to the Basis of Estimate.
At a minimum, estimates developed in the early stages of project development should
include the major milestones that WSDOT uses to measure performance and progress
on projects. An early schedule may only include a few activities, but typically should
include estimated durations for the environmental, design, ROW, ad/bid/award, and
construction phases.
2-4
2-5
Page 2-2
Chapter 2
2-6
2-7
Page 2-3
Chapter 2
Project Information
Project Scope
Project Location and
Site Characteristics
Basis of
Estimate
Historical
Databases
Baseline
Estimate
Internal SMEs
Review Baseline
Estimate
Market
Conditions &
Inflation
Risk Assessment
External &
Internal SMEs
Estimate
Communication
Approach
Management
Endorsement
Regional & HQ
Estimates
Conceptual (Planning)
Baseline (Scoping)
Updates (Design/PS&E)
Engineers Letting
Page 2-4
Chapter 3
The tool can be found in the Planning Level Cost Estimation Manual:
www.wsdot.wa.gov/mapsdata/travel/pdf/plcemanual_12-12-2012.pdf
Historical bid-based methods are commonly used to develop WSDOT construction
cost estimates, and are appropriate when design definition has advanced to the point
where detailed quantification of bid items is possible. The unit cost prices used are
collected and stored from prior projects. They should be modified or adjusted to
reflect current prices and project-specific conditions such as geographic location,
quantity of item(s) needed, and the scheduled timing of project advertisement.
Techniques such as historical bid pricing, historical percentage, and cost-based
estimating are also used to determine unit prices.
Page 3-1
Chapter 3
E-base
BidTabs Professional
Unit Bid Analysis
RS Means, when WSDOT-specific unit costs are not available (this tool can be
used for both historic bid-based and cost-based methods)
Chapter 4
4-1
Introduction
Typical phases of project development in the preconstruction phase are:
1. Planning
2. Scoping
3. Design
4. Plans, Specifications, and Estimates (PS&E)
Figure 4-1 illustrates how the phases of project development in the preconstruction
phase overlap and succeed each other.
Blending art and science, cost estimating requires a thorough understanding of project
scope, past price history, and current market conditions, along with a generous
application of human judgment. While the science part is relatively easy to master, the
art part can take much longer to develop. The following section is intended to provide
information and insight into the art and science of the estimating process.
4-2
Page 4-1
4-2.1
Chapter 4
4-2.1.1
Estimating Documents
4-2.1.2
3. When preparing the cost estimate, document the level of preconstruction phase
(see Figure 4-1). Document the baseline estimate in each account (PE, ROW, and
CN) and the contingency amount separately to facilitate tracking of deviations.
4. When reviewing the total estimate, engage knowledgeable and experienced
individuals who are independent from the project. Perform reviews in each
project development phase.
Page 4-2
Chapter 4
5. Use the tools and documents that have been prepared by others to your
advantage. Review estimates from similar projects and use as a starting point
for items and costs. Use spreadsheets and databases others have developed
as templates for building your estimate.
6. Use the expertise of specialty groups at WSDOT to provide input to your estimate.
Special items may have a significant effect on a projects cost. The information
obtained from specialists can greatly increase the accuracy of an estimate. Be sure
to inform the specialty groups about any unique issues or uncertainties that you
think might affect their estimates.
7. Ask specialty groups about what kind of contingency they recommend for the
specialty work and justification of it.
8. Economy of scale plays a large factor in estimating projects. When using a previous
projects data to determine unit prices, be sure both projects are similar in size for
the given item.
9. Have someone check your work. One of the easiest and most often overlooked
ways to eliminate errors is simply to have your estimate reviewed by an
experienced co-worker. Have the person look at the spreadsheets as well as
your backup calculations.
10. Become familiar with the region in which the project will be constructed and any
unique local policies. Market conditions may be different across the state, which
will affect the cost of construction and/or materials. Knowing the general locations
where materials might be obtained could be beneficial. Even a basic familiarity
with contractors and their past practices can help you understand how they may
bid on your project.
11. Use checklists throughout the estimating process to make sure no basic items are
left out of an estimate.
12. Make sure the appropriate human and technical resources are dedicated to the
estimating process.
13. Allow adequate time to estimate the costliest items; in most cases, they have the
most important influence on overall cost.
Page 4-3
4-2.2
Chapter 4
Cost Management
Regarding cost management, it is wise to consider the following procedures:
1. Obtain endorsements at milestone points during project development. Consider
using peer reviews prior to key milestones. If an endorsement is not indicated, the
project team may also see value in a peer review involving knowledgeable and
experienced individuals from outside the project team.
2. Establish good communication practices within the team and with management
about the estimate, including assumptions, uncertainty, and other issues that may
influence decisions about the project.
3. Protect estimators from internal and external pressures to deviate from established
estimating guidelines, in order to foster and promote objectivity and impartiality.
4. Document updates to the base estimate and the use of miscellaneous items in
each project development phase (planning, scoping, preliminary design (30%, 60%,
90%, ad ready), with reference to the scope, cost, and schedule that correspond to
the prior endorsed estimate.
5. Contingencies identified in the planning or scoping phases that are not needed
at the design or advertising phases should not be used to increase project scope.
Return any unused contingency to region program management.
6. Keep region program management and HQ Capital Program Development and
Management informed about project changes and external impacts that affect the
baseline/project budget. Provide procedures that require endorsements prior to
budget changes.
Each project development phase is inherently different from the others; therefore,
they all have unique challenges to overcome during the estimating phases. In the
following pages, techniques and considerations related to the best estimating
practices are presented for each phase. The considerations include: (1) general
advice, (2) tips, and (3) cautions.
Each tip can be used to either increase the quality of the estimate or reduce the time
spent on the estimate. The cautions focus on situations that can be detrimental to
the quality of an estimate. They generally include warnings about improper use of
information, external factors that can affect an estimate, or even common pitfalls
the estimators have encountered in the past.
Page 4-4
Chapter 4
While the list of considerations is a good compilation of pointers and warnings, the
best advice will come from an experienced estimator who has worked on similar
projects.
4-3
Planning
The planning phase estimate is used to estimate the funding needs for long-range
planning and to prioritize needs for the Highway System Plan. These estimates are
typically prepared with limited project information.
4-3.1
Techniques
Parametric estimating techniques are most commonly used for planning estimates.
Lane mile and square foot are two examples of parametric estimating techniques.
Historical bid prices and historical percentages can also be used to generate costs
for these parameters.
Analogous project estimating is another approach that can be used at the planning
phase.
WSDOT supports a planning phase estimate tool that uses the above techniques:
Considerations
4-3.2.1
General Advice
Analogous projects: The chosen historical project must be truly analogous. Determine
the similarities and differences between the historical project(s) and the current
project before using historical data.
Older projects: Project data from older projects is less reliable due to variations in
prices, standards, construction technology, and work methods. The analogous method
is best used as a tool to determine broad price ranges for simple, straightforward
projects or as a check to verify estimates prepared using another method.
Communication: Due to the lack of scope definition or preliminary design, care should
be taken to properly communicate with project stakeholders regarding the range of
possible cost and schedule changes as the project becomes more defined.
Page 4-5
Chapter 4
a. Project scope: Although the project has not been fully defined, do your best
to determine the full scope of the project before putting an estimate together.
Develop a comprehensive list of all of the components that will be required in
the project (within the time and resources allowed).
b. Field review: Walking the job is an excellent way to begin the process of
obtaining good quality, factual data to back up the cost estimates and establish
confidence in the process. To be confident that the project is adequately
planned, perform a systematic field review.
A project field review provides an important perspective that supplements the
mapping, photos, survey data, and other sources of information about the
project that are used in the office. Seeing the proposed project site first-hand
minimizes the possibility of overlooking significant design features.
While in the field, project personnel should be looking for potential high-cost
items (costs of mitigating hazardous waste and other environmental impacts;
utility relocation; noise barriers; retaining walls; major storm drains; need for
a transportation management plan; traffic handling, etc.). Document where
high-cost items may be present on the project so they can be considered in
more detail during project scoping. A strip map and proposed typical sections
are very useful in the field to document the occurrence of project features of
special interest.
c. Worst probable case: Determine and assess in the field the worse probable
case scenario, particularly on reconstruction projects. Existing facilities
previously thought to be adequate may have become inadequate because
of changes to standards, new data, etc. Design feature decisions, project
constructability, construction staging, etc., can often be evaluated and
documented in the field in preparation for further study later.
Page 4-6
Chapter 4
2. Cautions
a. Market conditions: Unit prices can vary greatly over time based on market
conditions. Petroleum products, concrete, and steel prices have probably been
the most volatile recently. It is important to review the unit prices, especially
for larger-cost items on a project, to reflect current trends. Market conditions
are important in all phases, but most prominently in planning, since the
construction date is so far into the future.
b. Ongoing maintenance: Planning estimates may sit on the shelf for many years
before moving to scoping, design, and construction. Planning estimates should
be reviewed and refreshed regularly to reflect potential changes in scope, unit
prices, regulatory requirements, etc. This is also a good time to review the
assumptions and revise as necessary.
c. Precision: The total cost may be displayed by computer estimating tools to
the nearest dollar, sometimes even to the penny. When these estimates are
shared within the organization, or even outside the organization, they may
give the impression that the estimate is very precise. Round planning phase
estimates up to the nearest thousand, ten thousand, or hundred thousand
dollars, depending on the magnitude of the estimated cost.
4-4
Scoping
Scoping estimates set the baseline cost for the project. A project is programmed when
it is entered into the Capital Improvement and Preservation Program (CIPP) and the
Biennial Transportation Program. The scoping estimate is important because it is the
baseline used by the Legislature to set the budget; future estimates will be compared
against it. Clearly document assumptions and scope definitions in the Basis of Estimate
document so that changes can be accurately compared to this estimate.
4-4.1
Techniques
Historical bid-based and parametric techniques have been described previously, and
both may be used in the scoping phase.
Cost-based estimating uses the same process as historical bid-based estimating,
except that the costs applied during estimating are based on analysis of items other
than bid research. Historical bid-based and cost-based approaches both utilize
quantities estimated for items such as asphalt, concrete pavement, structures,
and roadway excavation.
Page 4-7
Chapter 4
Other items that are not yet quantified may be estimated parametrically or through
the use of historical percentages. At this time, risks associated with the calculation
of item quantities should be identified, and a Risk Management Plan should be
developed and included in the estimating file for future reference.
4-4.2
Considerations
4-4.2.1
General Advice
Page 4-8
Chapter 4
a. Watch out for traffic problems that will be caused by construction. If detour
routes are necessary or available, will the estimate include addressing damage
done to the detour route by the added traffic? If detour routes are not
available, will daytime lane closures be allowed? If night work is necessary,
address in the estimate.
b. What utility impacts are there? Utility impacts can be direct costs to a project
and may result in change orders due to delays when the utility work is
concurrent with the highway construction. This holds true for both public
and private utilities.
c. Watch out for areas within the project limits with a high number of accidents.
These areas may need safety improvements that werent initially identified.
d. The same personnel who originally scoped the project should not be the only
ones estimating it. More people and fresh perspectives should always be
welcomed.
e. Not including enough risk on major improvement projects can be a problem
during scoping. What cant be seen poses a significantly higher risk than what
can be seen. There may be much more work than what is initially apparent.
Page 4-9
4-5
Chapter 4
Design
Estimates prepared at various design phases, including Geometric Review, General
Plans Review, and Preliminary Contract Review, are used to track changes in the
estimated cost to complete the project in relation to the current budget (legislative
budget). Each time the estimate is updated, the cost estimating process detailed in
Figure 2-1 should be followed. Compare the current budget for the project cost and
schedule to the new estimate.
Document each update and provide a written explanation of any significant changes
to include in the estimate file. If the budget or scope of the project is to be updated,
fill out and submit a Project Change Request Form. The final Engineers Estimate,
along with supporting documents, is required to be filed in the Design Documentation
Summary (DDS).
At design approval, the scope of work becomes more stable and many items become
better known. These include right of way needed, permit conditions, environmental
mitigation, quantities of major items, and stakeholder needs. As the scope of work
becomes stable, the confidence in the estimate should improve.
4-5.1
Techniques
Historical bid-based estimating methodologies are typically used for standard bid
items known to be included in the project.
Cost-based estimating methodologies can be used for items where there is little or no
WSDOT bid history. Cost-based estimating may also be used for major items of work
that are known project cost drivers. Cost-based key resources are suppliers and
other individuals knowledgeable about current prices for the subject items, typical
construction methodology and production rates, and equipment used. The estimator
should contact these resources to develop basic cost data for materials, labor, and
equipment.
Risk-based estimating is used to capture the effect of a projects uncertainties on the
project cost and schedule. Review risks identified earlier in the project development
process and update the Risk Management Plan to reflect the current design phase and
risks.
Page 4-10
Chapter 4
4-5.2
Considerations
4-5.2.1
General Advice
Guard the estimate against false precision. We often do not know as much about the
project as we think we do, particularly early in design. Project definition continues
to be refined until the project is ready for advertisement. Use appropriate item
allowances for estimates (see Table 7-1).
If cost-based estimating techniques are used, pay special attention to documenting
assumptions such as crew size, crew make up, production rates, and equipment
mix and type. The costs assumed for contractor overhead and profit as well as for
subcontractor work should also be documented. It is important to remember that
these assumptions may not reflect the decisions of the individual contractors that
will bid the job, thus introducing elements of uncertainty into the estimate.
1. Tips
a. Early in the project, get rights of entry for all properties adjacent to the project,
not only those that seem to be necessary. Repeatedly sending a real estate
services employee to obtain these documents is costly and can impact the
schedule.
b. Understand the staging needed to construct the project. Work with the proper
functional groups to verify traffic control strategy. (A functional or specialty
group is a team that has authority in a particular area and profound knowledge
or skills in a particular area of endeavor).
c. Do your research. If there are materials sources near your project site, you can
often get a better price. If you need fill, and another project has excavation
to waste, maybe their excavation can be stockpiled for your fill needs (results
in haul and placement costs only). Dont forget your local agency projects.
Develop a good relationship with the cities and counties you work in.
d. Consider the timing of your advertisement. If you advertise in late fall or
winter, your estimate may be lower. Demand is typically lower in these
months, resulting in lower prices. Contractors usually have more crews
free during this time, and you may end up with their best or most
experienced crew for off-season work.
e. Ask the experts. Do not be afraid to call suppliers, specialists, or contractors
to get an idea about cost. And dont be afraid to change their numbers to
fit your situation (remoteness, limitations, working days, work hours).
Page 4-11
Chapter 4
2. Cautions
a. Assuming the scoping estimate and project definitions are correct is not a good
way to begin an estimate. When you start an estimate, look with fresh eyes
and identify all substandard conditions. Coordinate with the appropriate
entities to determine whether deviations will be approved.
b. Not enough contact with functional groups will lead to less accurate estimates.
Do not be afraid to ask questions. Spend time getting to know those in
functional groups who will be reviewing the project.
c. Be sure to pay enough attention to lump sum items. These have the greatest
potential for cost overruns.
d. Be aware of structures. Work with the functional groups to confirm the
estimate for any structures. Reconfirm structure estimate after the
geotechnical report is complete.
e. Do not take the historical bid data at face value and simply average the prices
shown. There are always circumstances that should be taken into account.
f. Avoid dictating the methods the contractor is to use on items that do not
require it. It limits the contractors flexibility and raises your cost. The
contractor will find the least expensive way to perform the work since the
lowest bidder will be awarded the project.
4-6
PS&E
The Engineers Estimate is prepared for the Final Contract Review in preparation for
advertisement. It is used to obligate construction funds and to evaluate contractors
bids.
4-6.1
Techniques
Historical bid-based, cost-based, and risk-based estimates are the same as Section
45 (Design). Pay attention to the miscellaneous item allowances (see Table 71). At
the PS&E phase (letting) the allowances are terminated because the estimator should
have all the data needed for the projects. The project data used at this phase shall be
identical to the project data provided to potential bidders.
Page 4-12
Chapter 4
4-6.2 Considerations
4-6.2.1
General Advice
Carry out the final independent QA/QC checks of calculations, prices, and assumptions
during the review estimates. Review the Basis of Estimate for completeness, accuracy,
and clarity, and ensure all figures, from detailed backup to summary phases, are
traceable.
1. Tips
a. Do not use any documents for the PS&E (letting) estimate that the contractor
will not have. If you need additional documentation to complete an estimate,
it may be an indication that the plans and specifications are not complete.
b. If possible, use historical data from the region the project will be performed in.
These historical bids are probably from the same contractors who will bid on
this project.
c. Construction staff can help evaluate the potential impact of staging, materials
storage, hauling of materials, location of batch plants, and other constructabilityrelated issues. The information in this step is exceedingly important, since the
estimate at this phase is completed as though the bidders prepared it.
2. Cautions
Page 4-13
Chapter 4
Methodology
Tools
0% to 2%
Screening or
Feasibility
WTP/HSP
(20-Year Plan)
WTP Washington
Transportation Plan
HSP Highway
Systems Plan
Parametric
1% to 15%
Concept Study or
Feasibility
Implementation Plan
(10 Yr. Plan)
Parametric
Risk-Based
10% to 30%
Budget Authorization
or Control
Capital Improvement
& Preservation Plan
(CIPP)
Parametric
Historical Bid-Based
Risk-Based
30% to 90%
Design Estimates
(Project Control of
Scope Schedule
Budget)
Historical Bid-Based
Cost-Based
Risk-Based
90% to 100%
Engineers Estimate
(prior to bid)
Historical Bid-Based
Cost-Based
Risk-Based
EBASE, UBA,
BidTabs Pro,
Risk assessment
models
Highway System
Plan
Design Studies
Route Dev. Plans
Scoping
Project Summary
(PD, DDS)
-50% to +200%
Estimate
Range
-40% to 100%
Washington
Transportation
Plan
Purpose of Estimate
-30% to +50%
Planning
Percentage
of Design
Completed
-10% to +25%
Project
Development
Phase
-5% to +10%
Design
Design
Documentation
I/S Plans for
Approval
Design Approval
PS&E
Plans, Specs,
Estimate
(R/W Plans
approved)
Page 4-14
Chapter 5
As of the publication of this manual, no formal training for cost estimating is being
provided by WSDOT. However, it is hoped that several classes offered in the past,
specifically addressing cost estimating, will return in the not-too-distant future. They
include:
Resources from the HQ Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office are also available to
assist with specific questions about estimate preparation and the use of individual
techniques or tools described in this document ( www.wsdot.wa.gov/design/saeo/).
Page 5-1
Page 5-2
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
6-1
Documentation/Basis of Estimate
Introduction
An estimate without documentation is not an estimate. The estimate file should be a
well-organized, easy-to-follow history from the first estimate through preparation of
the final estimate. The documentation should track changes as the estimate evolves,
including updating the scope; assumptions; quantity and price calculations; and risks
from the previous estimate.
A well-documented estimate enhances credibility and contributes to transparency
and confidence in project estimates. Clear documentation is particularly important
as the project passes from one group to another, or as team membership changes.
The project estimate file should follow the project through the various stages so
that each new estimate can be easily tied to the previous one.
6-2
Techniques
Estimating time should be scheduled into the project management plan for each
phase of the project. This will ensure adequate time and resources are allotted for
performing cost estimating.
As part of the estimate review process, someone external to the project team
should perform a review of the estimate file. This external review will help ensure
the estimator has clearly recorded the assumptions and decisions made in the
estimating process.
6-3
Page 6-1
Documentation/Basis of Estimate
Page 6-2
Chapter 6
Alert the project team to potential cost risks (threats and opportunities).
Act as a source of support during dispute resolutions and for bid analysis.
Establish the initial baseline for scope, quantities, and cost for use in cost
trend evaluations throughout the project.
Establish the context of the estimate, and support review and validation.
Qualify any rates or factors that are referenced either in the estimate or
BOE; e.g., productivity can be expressed as either units/time (linear
feet/hours) or time/units (hours/linear feet).
Chapter 7
The cost of work items is estimated, including the Miscellaneous Items Allowance in
design, and then the markups such as mobilization, sales tax, preliminary engineering
(PE), and construction engineering (CE) are applied to them.
Table 7-1 presents data related to the markups. The order of calculation is provided
at: www.wsdot.wa.gov/publications/fulltext/cevp/700%20800%20items.pdf
Table 7-1 Markups Summary
Cost Estimating
Elements[1][2]
Mobilization
Sales Tax
Preliminary Engineering
Miscellaneous Item
Allowance in Design[3]
Planning
Scoping
Design
PS&E
Per EBASE
www.wsdot.wa.gov/design/projectdev/engineeringapplications/adread
y.htm
Site-specific, based on Control Section. Data can be found in TRIPS or
EBASE. Specific direction is found in Standard Specification 1-07.2.
www.wsdot.wa.gov/nr/rdonlyres/c1b02cbf-ea4c-4a3f-affff13cc43cc9de/96366/taxes.pdf
See Table 9-1
30% to 50%
20% to 30%
PMs Workplan +
Actuals to Date
Actual
10% to 20%
0% (all items
should be defined)
Construction Engineering
Per EBASE
www.wsdot.wa.gov/nr/rdonlyres/c1b02cbf-ea4c-4a3f-affff13cc43cc9de/96724/engineeringandcontpercentagetables.pdf
Per EBASE
www.wsdot.wa.gov/nr/rdonlyres/c1b02cbf-ea4c-4a3f-affff13cc43cc9de/96724/engineeringandcontpercentagetables.pdf
Page 7-1
Chapter 7
Notes:
[1] Round to appropriate significant digit; for example, $196,526,918.00 is rounded to $197
million.
[2] Report cost estimates in current dollars to program management. The Construction Cost Index
(CCI) will be used to inflate the estimate to midpoint of construction by program management.
Note: Public declarations of estimated project costs should be presented in the form of a range
in Year-Of-Expenditure (YOE) dollars.
[3] Miscellaneous Item Allowance in Design accounts for lack of scope definition and those items
too small to be identified at the stage of project design. This allowance is eliminated for final
PS&E estimates on design-bid-build projects because the scope and estimate for all items
should be identified at that point.
Miscellaneous Item Allowance in Design will vary along with advances on design.
Figure 7-1 illustrates the ideal situation: as items are Identified and Quantified during
the Scoping and Design phases, Miscellaneous Item Allowance should correspondingly
decrease (see Table 1)
100%
~75%
Identified and quantified items
Scoping
Design
PS&E
Design maturity
Figure 7-1 Identified and Quantified Items vs. Miscellaneous Item Allowances in Design
Page 7-2
Chapter 8
Specialty Groups
Specialty groups provide cost estimates for portions of the project relevant to their
areas of expertise.
8-1
8-2
Right of Way
Right of way (ROW) costs vary widely throughout Washington State. Region and/or HQ
Real Estate Services should be involved early to help determine appropriate costs for
the project. ROW estimates typically include administration, relocation, cleanup costs,
and allowances for condemnation.
Real estate markets are best characterized by those familiar with the geographic area.
In consideration of this fact, subject matter experts (SMEs) such as region Real Estate
Services and region Right of Way staff should be asked to provide this estimate.
These SMEs can provide input regarding the cost of right of way and the uncertainty
associated with the real estate market in the geographic area of the project. Other
issues to consider include zoning changes, speculation, growth management plans,
and pending comprehensive plan changes.
8-3
Environmental
Region and/or environmental staff must be involved in the design and estimating
process early. The costs and time durations of complying with environmental impact
analysis, mitigation, permit, and public involvement requirements in environmental
laws and regulations and interagency agreements can be significant and need to be
included in the project estimate.
Page 8-1
Specialty Groups
8-4
Chapter 8
8-5
Utilities
The Utilities Office should also be involved early in the process. Subsurface and
overhead utilities are located on a majority of project sites, and conflicts with these
utilities can increase a projects cost dramatically. When a utility is located on an
easement and WSDOT acquires the property through ROW acquisitions, WSDOT
must pay all relocation costs in addition to providing the affected utility with a new
easement. Also note that city-owned utilities that are impacted within the citys
limits can add similar costs to a project.
Another risk that may affect project costs is triggered when utilities that are not
identified during the design phase (due to insufficient engineering investigation or
inaccuracy in utility as-builts) are discovered while the project is under construction.
Utility conflicts not identified until the construction phase can result in costly change
orders and project delays.
Page 8-2
Chapter 9
Preliminary Engineering (PE) percentages can be used at early stages (planning and
scoping) to estimate the cost of design for a project. These percentages will vary by
project type and total dollar amount of the project. On average, PE costs for WSDOTdesigned projects are approximately 15% of project cost. This should be used when
Table 9-1 does not provide data.
As the project moves through design, the PE cost should reflect actual costs to date
plus the anticipated costs to complete the design work as determined from the project
work plan.
There is a reasonable minimum cost for PE, because of the cost of the Ad, Bid, and
Award process, which even a very small project will incur as full fare. If the project
cost is under $200,000, it might be more efficient to combine it with another project
in order to reduce the Ad, Bid, and Award cost.
For projects that include consultant design, PE costs can be significantly different than
for projects designed by WSDOT. The cost of design by consultant is almost always
more than the typical WSDOT design costs. PE cost estimates should reflect the type
of resources (WSDOT and consultant) involved in the design effort.
Page 9-1
I1
Mobility
PE as % of CN
IA
Subprogram
$0
$250,000
$500,000
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$250,000
$500,000
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
+
PRESERVATION
PROGRAM
PE as % of CN
Subprogram
$0
$250,000
$500,000
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$250,000
$500,000
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
+
IB
I2
Safety
IC
IQ
ID
IE
Urban
Rural
Urban Bike
Connection
HOV
Lane
Collision
Reduction
Collision
Prevention
ND
ND
ND
15%
15%
15%
15%
ND
ND
ND
20%
20%
ND
10%
ND
15%
ND
12%
12%
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
10%
10%
40%
30%
22%
20%
20%
12%
12%
20%
20%
20%
20%
15%
15%
15%
P1
Roadway
PA
Paving Safety
Restoration
15%
12%
12%
10%
8%
6%
6%
IF
IG
IH
AllWeather
Highway
ND
ND
ND
ND
10%
10%
10%
Trunk
System
Completion
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
14%
New
Safety
Rest Area
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
P2
Structures
PB
Structure
Preservation
20%
15%
13%
12%
12%
12%
11%
PC
Catastrophic
Reduction
40%
30%
20%
13%
13%
13%
13%
I4
Environmental
Retrofit
I3
Economic Initiative
II
Bridge
Restriction
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
IK
IL
Stormwater
Runoff
40%
25%
20%
20%
ND
ND
ND
Fish
Barrier
Removal
40%
30%
20%
15%
15%
ND
ND
P3
Other Facilities
PD
PE
Rest Area
Unstable Slope
20%
20%
20%
ND
ND
ND
ND
30%
20%
15%
10%
10%
10%
ND
PF
Weigh
Station
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
PG
Program
Support
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
ND
PH
Major Drain
Electrical
30%
20%
20%
20%
20%
ND
ND
Notes:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The percentages in this table are based on actual WSDOT project costs statewide from July 2001 through March 2007.
ND indicates that there is no data for that cell.
Yellow highlighted cells indicate that there is limited data for that cell.
For project type definitions, see below and the Plans Preparation Manual, Section 800.03.
A factor must be applied to the PE amount for consultant work. Typical factors for the consultant portion of the work range between 1.8 and 2.8, depending on the type and
scope of consultant involvement.
Page 9-2
Chapter 10
The key factors that may affect the project cost and schedule estimated number are
described in this chapter.
10-1
Geographic Considerations
Geographic considerations are powerful project characteristics that may substantially
affect the selection of unit bid prices. The projects location, whether in an urban,
suburban, or rural setting, should be considered in establishing bid prices. Some of
the cost considerations relating to a projects location may be accounted for in the
mobilization bid item, dependent on the restrictions of Standard Specification 1-09.7.
A project in an urban setting generally has to contend with construction operations
occurring in more confined work spaces, with greater volumes of traffic, limited
hours of operation, nighttime work, etc. Some of these factors may be offset by
the availability of local contractors, materials, equipment, and personnel.
Projects located in rural settings have factors that affect the establishment of unit
bid prices different from the projects located in urban settings. Construction
operations may have less restricted work areas, less traffic to contend with, and
additional hours to complete the workall factors that increase productivity. On
the other hand, materials, equipment, and personnel may have to be brought in
from out of the area, which may increase costs related to transportation, support,
wages, per diem, etc.
For projects that utilize large quantities of aggregate, whether for base, surfacing,
or earthwork, the location of material sources and disposal sites may have a large
impact on costs. Nearby material sources or disposal sites reduce hauling costs. On
rural projects, the cost of bringing in a concrete batch plant, hot mix asphalt plant, or
similar facility, may increase unit bid prices. Again, dependent on the restrictions of
Standard Specification 1-09.7, those costs may be directly attributed to and reflected
in the mobilization bid item.
Terrain may also be a consideration in establishing an items cost. Mountainous
terrain and steep grades cause production rates to fall, whereas level terrain and
straight roadways generally have the opposite effect.
Page 10-1
Chapter 10
10-2
10-3
Quantity Considerations
The quantity of a given material on a project impacts the unit cost of constructing
and/or supplying that item. This is not simply a supply and demand issue, but also
one of production efficiency and economy of scale.
Page 10-2
On one hand, the unit price for larger quantities of a given material will be
less than for smaller quantities. Larger quantities may give rise to efficiency
by gained experience and the expertise of the contractors personnel in
completing the work.
On the other hand, for some projects, very large quantities of certain
materials may cause an increase to the unit bid price. For example,
a project with numerous or large structures may affect the market for
a particular type of steel or the availability of cement, or may even tie
up a regions labor resources.
Chapter 10
Small quantities of items of work are often less cost-effective to construct and lead to
higher unit prices. Suppliers charge more for smaller purchases, and in some instances
the minimum amount that has to be purchased is greater than needed for the project.
Smaller-quantity items may be subcontracted out; this increases a contractors
overhead and usually results in a markup being applied to those items.
10-3.1 Separate Operations
Separate operations will usually increase item costs, especially if the order of work or
the work unit is to be constructed in scattered locations throughout the project (each
requiring move-in and move-out costs). If this is the case, unit prices should be based
upon the smaller unit sizes and should not be based upon the entire quantity for the
total project.
10-3.2 Handwork and Inefficient Operations
Handwork and small or inefficient operations (even though equipment may be used)
will have higher unit costs than work that is able to be mass produced or constructed
by using techniques that result in higher production rates.
10-4
Item Availability
Materials that are readily available, or ones that are commonly used, are generally
less expensive to purchase and install/construct. Materials that are in short supply
are more expensive. This should be considered in establishing the unit price.
Large quantities of materials required in a short period of time may result in a
temporary shortfall in product availability and potential cost increases or delays
to a project.
10-5
Scheduling/Lead Time
To be efficient, a contractor needs to optimize the scheduling of resources, including
labor, equipment, and materials. The ability to plan for and maximize resources allows
contractors to be more competitive in bidding. Lead times need to be considered in
estimating the project based upon when it is expected to be built. For example, a
project that is two seasons long may have the majority of its paving in either the
first or the second year.
Page 10-3
10-6
Chapter 10
10-7
Page 10-4
Chapter 10
In many cases, lump sum bid items can lead to higher contractor bids. Therefore, lump
sum items should only be used when the following conditions apply:
1. The lump sum item is a standard item with no appropriate alternative non-lump
sum standard item available for use.
2. The work is not easily defined. In other words, the final product is known, but
the construction techniques or other components are difficult to determine.
3. The project has complex items with many components (although the designer
is encouraged to break down constituent items if possible).
4. The lump sum payment may be justified as incentive to complete the work in
a more timely or efficient manner than if other units of measure were used.
5. The lump sum item may be justified as less expensive than a force account item
(see below) or where the risk assumed by the contractor is low.
The use of a lump sum item must be justified and the work breakdowns documented
in the estimate file. Use of earned value techniques may aid in determining the
performance of the contractor on lump sum bid items.
10-8
Force Account
Force account is a method of payment that pays the contractor the actual expenses
for all labor, materials, and equipment to complete the work. Markups for material
costs, labor surcharges, overhead, and profit are usually added to this figure. This
method of payment is used primarily for extra work (i.e., work that is unforeseen
at the time a project is let or advertised and is discovered during construction) or for
items of work that are poorly defined and may/may not be used during construction.
The case of poorly defined items of work is the one most frequently encountered by
the estimator. Since the contractor does not usually bid on this work, there is little
incentive to reduce costs or execute the work diligently. Because of this, the force
account method of payment should only be used when necessary.
When a reasonable cost estimate for a force account item is required, the estimator
should try to establish the scope of work to be accomplished. Once the scope is
developed, it can be compared to historical bid price data for similar items of work.
If no comparable history exists, the force account item should be broken out into its
anticipated core components. The estimator can then rely on historical bid data for
those items and the given limitations to come up with a reasonable force account
estimate. If no such data exists, the estimator may need to estimate the amount
and costs of materials, equipment, and labor to execute the work.
Page 10-5
Chapter 10
Force account may also be considered as a tool for transferring risk from the
contractor to the owner. If the work is properly directed by the project inspector,
force account may actually cost less than an equivalent lump sum item.
Use of force account items and their estimated costs must be documented and
justified in the project estimate file.
10-9
Timing of Advertisement
The timing of a project advertisement can influence bid prices. Contractors can have
a time of year that is busier than others. This relates to weather and construction
windows; for example, asphalt paving is not done during cold, wet weather. The
appropriate timing of advertisement can also be affected by other items like fish
and HMA paving windows or other outside constraints.
The peak season for most highway projects is April through October. The peak season
for marine work is November through March. The best time to advertise a project
is several months before the work season for that type of work, to allow time for
contract execution and for contractors to mobilize their resources in time to take
advantage of the full work season.
If contractors have fully allocated resources for the upcoming season, they are less
likely to bid on a project and, if they do bid, it is in a less competitive environment.
For this reason, there is a benefit to WSDOT to advertise a project as soon as possible
prior to the peak season, to allow contractors time to plan, schedule, and seek as
many opportunities as possible to find efficiencies in their work plans. Hopefully,
this promotes a more competitive bidding environment.
The estimator preparing the final Engineers Estimate needs to be aware of the timing
of the advertisement. The estimator should account for any expected fluctuations in
bid prices due to the season, such as lower production during temperature extremes,
additional protections for weather-sensitive materials, and so forth.
It is important to know if the work can be accomplished before winter weather
causes the project to shut down. If the job cannot be finished before the end of the
construction season, and the project needs to be suspended, contractors will increase
their bid prices to cover their overhead during the winter and repair any damage that
may occur. Even if contractors reasonably expect to finish before the winter, they may
protect themselves to allow for an early winter.
Page 10-6
Chapter 10
10-10 Inflation
The estimate represents the probable cost at the time of estimate. Any time an
estimate is created or updated, the unit prices must reflect the cost at the time the
estimate is done. It may require the estimator to go back to the unit price database
and get the latest information.
The estimator must always adjust the unit price for inflation considering the interval
of time from when the price was used and the estimating time.
Figure 10-1 illustrates the ideal situation, when the current prices representing the
cost at the time of estimate increase because of the Past Inflation (PI) applied to the
prior prices. Simultaneously, the figure shows that the estimated amount created by
Future Inflation (FI) (what program management does) decreases since the time span
decreases. WSDOT inflation tables are found at:
CPMS CCI Tables: http://wwwi.wsdot.wa.gov/ppsc/pgmmgt/cpms/fields/cci.txt
CPMS PECI Tables: http://wwwi.wsdot.wa.gov/ppsc/pgmmgt/cpms/fields/pe.infl.txt
CPMS RWCI Tables: http://wwwi.wsdot.wa.gov/ppsc/pgmmgt/cpms/fields/rw.infl.txt
Estimated Cost
PI
PI
Current Prices
Current Prices
Planning
Current Prices
Current Prices
PI
Scoping
Design
Letting
Page 10-7
Chapter 10
Comparisonofofthe
the
Low
Deterministic
of
Comparison
Low
BidBid
vs. vs.
the the
Engineer's
EstimateEstimate
based on Based
Numberon
of Number
Bidders (All
Projects
Bidders)
30%
20%
Caltrans
10%
WSDOT
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
0
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Number of Bidders
Figure 10-2 Comparison of the Low Bid vs. the Deterministic Estimate Based on Number of Bidders
Page 10-8
Chapter 10
Page 10-9
Chapter 10
When estimating specialty work you are not familiar with, seek the advice of experts
who can help. Consider the number of qualified contractors capable of doing the
project or elements of work.
Page 10-10
Chapter 10
The labor, material usage, equipment usage, and travel expenses of staff
or consultants doing environmental analysis and documentation during
project development.
Page 10-11
Chapter 10
Be aware that considerable costs may be required due to: stormwater collection
and treatment; wetland protection and mitigation; hazardous materials testing;
containment and treatment; and removal and disposal of underground fuel tanks,
creosote timbers, and contaminated soils.
10-19 Allowances
Allowances cover items known to be needed for the project but yet not specifically
identified and/or quantified. It is different from construction contingency. 1 Allowances
account for a lack of project definition during the preparation of estimates.
In WSDOT estimates, allowances should be shown as a separate line item in the
baseline cost estimate. Allowance amounts should be identified with an explanation
as to what they are intended to cover so they can be managed and reduced
appropriately as the design progresses. This will assist in review of the estimate.
Figure 7.1 illustrates the negative correlation between the amount of allowances and
the amount of identified and quantified items. Once identified and quantified items
are added to the baseline estimate, the allowances should be reduced in order to
reflect the new data available.
Construction Contingency A standardized markup applied to the construction cost of a project that accounts for
uncertainties in quantities, unit costs, and minor risk events that typically take place during construction.
Page 10-12
Chapter 11
11-1
Introduction
Each estimate should have some level of review, as indicated on the flow chart
provided in Figure 2-1, Cost Estimating Process. Project complexity is an important
driver of the level of estimate review. The level of review should be carefully chosen
by the project manager.
Estimates are key outputs of the project management process and are fundamental
documents upon which key management decisions are based. It is recommended,
and may become policy at a regions discretion, that all cost estimates be
independently reviewed by estimating staff specialists, subject matter experts, and
others as appropriate. Estimates will then be reconciled and revised as needed to
respond to independent reviewer comments. In the event of a significant difference of
opinion, an estimate reconciliation meeting will be held and the results documented.
The final results of the independent review and reconciliation meeting must receive
management endorsement before any project is advertised.
Independent reviews (check estimates) should be made by experienced estimators
who are familiar with the type of work inherent in the project, and who have had no
involvement in the development of the project estimate to date. The independent
estimator consults with other independent sources such as design engineers,
construction managers, or other estimators as needed on specialty items of work.
Checks performed by independent estimators include:
Page 11-1
Chapter 11
Page 11-2
Chapter 11
11-5 External
In this type of review, external experts are brought in to review either specific pieces
of the estimate or the entire estimate. This type of review can be combined with any
of the other types of reviews to supplement knowledge of a specific item of work or to
provide an outside perspective. This type of review has a wide range of costs but can
provide significant confidence in the estimate that might not be otherwise attainable
from internal WSDOT resources.
Table 11-1 is a matrix that identifies which position has responsibility for reviewing
and endorsing each type of WSDOT estimate.
Table 11-1 Activity/Responsibility Matrix
Planning Phase
Design Approval
Design Report Alternative Analysis
Determine Contingencies
PE/PM, PDE/EM
Documentation, including:
Assumptions
Quantities and Adjustments
Prices and Adjustments
Review Estimates
Independent Estimate
To be determined
Note:
The Region Project Engineer, Project Manager, Project Development Engineer, and Engineering Manager
should be informed of changes and updates to project scope, schedule, and cost estimates. This table is
based on the Project Control and Reporting Manual (M 3026), January 2006 revision.
Page 11-3
Page 11-4
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Resources
Page 12-1
Resources
Chapter 12
Page 12-2