CH 11
CH 11
DERIVATIVES MARKETS
CHAPTER OVERVIEW AND LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Futures markets develop whenever and wherever there is price volatility. Buyers and sellers
of the product have the risk of approaching the marketplace and finding the market price too
high or too low to justify their efforts.
Futures markets enable buyers and sellers to establish prices today for transactions (trading,
lending, or borrowing) in the future.
Interest rates were quite predictable before the inflation-troubled 1965-1981 period. With
ever-increasing inflation and on-off easy and tight monetary policy, interest rate forecasting
became a dice-rolling exercise. The situation was right for the development of financial
futures, just as variable commodity prices had called forth a commodity futures market years
before.
It is critical for those who study finance to understand that futures, options, swaps, and other
derivatives are integral to understanding the financial environment in which firms operate
today.
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Pork Belly and other futures prices. Following one or two different types of commodities and their
associated futures contracts every day for a week or two will give you a pretty good feel for how
commodity prices change relative to spot prices over time.
Introduction
1.
2.
3.
4.
B.
Forward Markets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
C.
Derivatives are financial securities whose value is based upon or derived from
the value of other assets (so called underlying assets).
Derivative securities can be used to minimize or eliminate an investors or a
firms exposure to various types of risk that they may be exposed to.
Risk to an investor or a firm can be caused by interest rate changes or foreign
exchange rate changes, commodity prices or stock prices.
Derivatives are also used for speculation. Speculators, unlike hedgers,
consciously take on risk.
Futures Markets
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
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a.
6.
7.
8.
D.
E.
Futures Exchanges
1.
2.
3.
4.
F.
2.
3.
II.
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1.
2.
3.
4.
B.
C.
Stock Index program trading is done to arbitrage the price discrepancies between
a stock index future and the stocks that make up the stock index.
Program trading allows to earn a risk-free return higher than a T-Bill yield for the
corresponding period.
Stock index program trading involves buying or selling large number of stocks in
high volume which can influence stock prices dramatically over the short-term.
Futures and forward contracts can be used to hedge future borrowing costs by
utilizing the inverse relationship between interest rates and security prices.
If interest rates are expected to rise (leading to an increased cost of funds), a
borrower who executes a short hedge (sells interest rate futures) will gain in the
futures market and therefore offset all or part of the increased borrowing cost.
D.
E.
(Equation 11.1)
PA / rM
PF / rM
As you see, the relative volatility of the value of the underlying asset and
the futures contract caused by a change in market interest rates
determines the number of contracts needed to hedge properly. If the
futures value and your portfolio value move in opposite directions with a
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III.
Profile of Risks
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
IV.
The financial institution may hedge its earnings or the market value of its net
worth, not both.
While futures contracts can help investors and businesses hedge against certain
kinds of risk, they need to be aware of their exposure to risks that are inherent in
trading futures.
Basis risk - risk of an imperfect hedge because the value of item being hedged
may not always keep the same price relationship to the futures contracts.
a.
Cross hedging is hedging an asset with a derivative contract whose
characteristics do not exactly match those of hedged assets.
Related-contract risk risk of failure due to an unanticipated change in the
business activity being hedged, such as a loan default or prepayment.
Manipulation risk risk of price losses due to a person or group trading (buying
or selling) to affect price.
Margin risk the liquidity risk that added maintenance margin calls will be
made by the exchange. If a hedger does not add funds to meet the margin
requirement, the futures exchange will close his position in order to avoid
default. The hedge will be lost.
Options Markets
A.
B.
C.
An option gives the holder a right (not an obligation) to buy/sell a certain amount
(e.g., a round lot of 100 shares) of the underlying security or commodity on or
before a specified date at a specified price (called strike or exercise price).
An American option gives the buyer the right to exercise the option at any time
before the expiration date. A European option can be exercised only on its
expiration date, not before.
An option that would be profitable if exercised immediately is said to be in the
money.
The seller of the option is called the writer, and the buyer of the option, holder.
The buyer will pay the writer of the option a premium.
With options the buyer can lose only the premium and the commission paid.
If the holder decides to exercise his option, the writer is obligated to honor it.
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1.
2.
D.
E.
V.
Covered option - writer either owns the security involved in the contract or has
limited his or her risk with other contracts.
Naked option - writer does not have or has not made provision to limit the extent
of risk.
F.
The option to transact at the strike price exists over a period of time, not at a
given date.
The buyer of an option pays the seller (writer) a premium which the writer keeps
regardless of whether or not the option is ever exercised.
The option does not have to be exercised by the buyer; it can be sold if it has a
market value, before the expiration date.
Gains and losses are unlimited with futures contracts; with options the buyer can
lose only the premium and the commission paid.
B.
C.
Exchange Regulation
1.
2.
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3.
VI.
Swap Markets
A.
Role of Swaps
1.
2.
3.
B.
C.
Swaps are like series of forward contracts in that they guarantee the exchange of
two items at several points of time in the future, but a swap only transfers the net
amount.
Unlike in forwards, price changes are tied to changes in an indexed interest rate.
Similar to forwards and futures, swaps can be used to hedge both interest rate and
foreign exchange risks.
Unlike forwards and futures, credit risk differences between the counterparties
provide the impetus for swaps.
D.
COMPLETION QUESTIONS
1.
The participants in futures markets include risk-averse ________ and risk-assuming ________.
2.
A U.S. importer who must pay 200 million yen to a Japanese exporter in 90 days might buy/sell
yen in a ________ contract from a foreign exchange dealer.
3.
Forward and futures markets develop when future ________ of a commodities, claims, etc. are
highly variable/stable.
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4.
5.
In the forward market, the hedger contracts directly with a ________; in the futures market the
hedger's relationship is with the ________.
6.
A farmer growing corn is concerned about a(n) ___________ in the future ________ price of
corn, will be long /short in the next few months, and is likely to take a long /short position in the
futures market.
7.
8.
A ________ option enables the buyer to purchase stock at a _________ price over a certain
period of time.
9.
An S&L with a negative GAP would enter a swap contract with the intention to swap ________
rate loan interest for ________ rate loan interest, with the purpose of reducing its ________
_______ risk.
10.
An increase in the interest rate causes the price of a T-Bill futures contract to ____________.
TRUE-FALSE QUESTIONS
T
1.
Foreign exchange risk can be hedged in either the forward or the futures market.
2.
Futures price reflect the markets estimate of future spot prices at specific dates.
3.
Margin risk relates to the risk that futures contract prices may not vary similarly
to the item hedged.
4.
5.
Most forward contracts are delivered; most futures contracts are not.
6.
7.
A futures contract always involves a hedger (risk averter) and a speculator (risk
taker).
8.
9.
A swap dealer brings two interested parties together to make a swap agreement.
10.
Bid/ask price spreads narrow with more traders and more trades.
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MULTIPLE-CHOICE QUESTIONS
1.
A hedger in the futures market hedges to prevent a loss in a business transactions, but also gives
up:
a.
a sizable fee to the exchange
b.
the loss on the futures contract
c.
the opportunity to gain from a favorable turn in prices of the item hedged.
d.
The potential gain on the futures contract
2.
All of the following are risks associated with futures contracts except:
a.
margin risk.
b.
basis risk.
c.
price risk.
d.
manipulation risk.
3.
What action would the holder of a maturing call option take with an option which cost $3 and had
a strike price of $50 if the market value of the stock was $52?
a.
let the option expire unexercised
b.
exercise the option
c.
request that the $300 be returned
d.
none of the above
4.
An S&L with long-term assets and short-term liabilities would most likely take which action to
hedge its interest rate risk?
a.
buy futures contracts
b.
sell futures contracts
c.
buy put options on futures contracts
d.
both b and c above
5.
6.
A farmer growing wheat is ______ in wheat and may hedge price risk by ______ wheat futures.
a.
short; long
b.
buying; selling
c.
selling; buying
d.
long; selling
7.
First National Bank recently purchased a T-bill futures contract to hedge a risk position at the
bank. If the price of the futures contract is increasing,
a.
First National is "gaining."
b.
First National is "losing."
c.
First National is neither "gaining" nor "losing."
d.
First National is taking a loss in the futures.
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8.
Daily changes in futures prices means one party (long position or short position) has gained and
another lost money on the contract. How are the exchanges able to keep the "daily" loser in the
contract and prevent default?
a.
the threat of bankruptcy
b.
daily margin calls if needed
c.
loans
d.
guarantees by third parties
9.
A five-member federal regulatory commission, which serves as the primary regulator of the
futures market, is the:
a.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
b.
Federal Commodity Futures Commission.
c.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
d.
Chicago Board of Trade.
10.
A bank which hedges its future funding costs in the T-bill futures market is
a.
hedging perfectly.
b.
accepting some basis risk with its hedge.
c.
speculating.
d.
is not hedging or speculating at all
11.
The purchase of one million dollars of Treasury Bonds, delivered in 60 days, from a government
securities dealer is:
a.
a call.
b.
a swap.
c.
a forward contract.
d.
a put.
12.
An agreement between a business and a large money center bank to sell 10 million British Pounds
in sixty days is called a
a.
a call option.
b.
a forward contract.
c.
a put option.
d.
a long futures position.
13.
An investor planning to buy IBM stock in 30 days can protect himself against price risk by
a.
selling an IBM put option that expires in 30 days
b.
buying an IBM call option that expires in 30 days
c.
selling an IBM call option that expires in 30 days
d.
buying an IBM put option that expires in 30 days
14.
A portfolio manager is concerned that the expected drop in interest rates is going to lower the
yield on the $1,000,000 of T-Bill she plans to buy in 3 months. She can hedge this interest rate
risk by:
a.
Taking a short position in 3-month T-bill futures contract.
b.
Taking a long position in 3-month T-bill futures contract.
c.
Buying a put on a 3-month T-bill futures contract.
d.
Either a or c above.
e.
She cannot hedge this risk.
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15.
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A.
Locate the futures prices pages noted in the above paragraph, in a recent copy of The Wall Street
Journal (second section). One will find a presentation of "Cash Prices" or spot prices of
commodities, usually an article analyzing the futures market activity of the previous day, and the
"Futures Prices" quotations for the previous day. Each futures quotation lists the type of contract,
where (exchange) it is traded, the standard denomination, and an explanation of the price. The
quotation for varied contract maturities include: the opening price of the day; the high, low, and
daily settlement prices; the change for the day; the lifetime high and low; and the number of
contracts outstanding (open interest). For financial futures, settlement (closing) yields and the
daily change in yields are quoted, not the lifetime high and low. Note that futures prices (yields)
reflect the market's expectations of future spot prices (yields).
B.
C.
1.
What is the market's expectation of Treasury bill interest rates approximately one year
from now? What does the futures market expect crude oil prices, the Canadian dollar, and
the S&P 500 to be one year from now? Compare with spot rates and prices.
2.
What futures contract has the largest number of contracts outstanding on the day of your
analysis?
An orange grove wants to hedge its price risk for its crop that will mature in four months.
2.
3.
A life insurance company investment manager must sell $1 million in Treasury bonds in
three months to make a policy settlement.
4.
A pension fund manager of a $1 billion diversified stock portfolio wishes to protect the
portfolio gains made in the early part of her annual pension management contract with a
large corporation.
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5.
A corporation must borrow $1 million for 90 days six months from now.
6.
A large S&L has committed $5 million in construction financing six months from today
at a specified rate.
7.
A fuel oil supplier with limited storage space must buy fuel oil to meet customer needs
over the coming winter months.
8.
A commercial bank customer wants a $5 million fixed-rate loan for six months, normally
financed by 3-month CDs.
hedgers; speculators
2.
buy; forward
3.
prices; variable
4.
long
5.
dealer; exchange
6.
7.
premium
8.
call; strike
9.
10.
decrease
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A forward contract can be negotiated with a dealer or a futures contract can be purchased
or sold.
2.
3.
Margin risk relates to the chances that added funds must be contributed to keep the
contract solvent. Basis risk relates to the correlation of the price of the hedged item and
the futures contract prices.
4.
The longer the time, the increased chance of significant price changes.
5.
The forward market involves a party who must buy/sell foreign exchange and looks to the
forward contract to execute the transaction.
6.
7.
A futures contract might involve two hedgers, two speculators, or one of each.
8.
Each is unique as to the amount of value and future date as required by future business
transactions.
9.
Each party would independently negotiate a swap agreement with the dealer.
10.
As in most markets, as the number of traders and trades increase, the spreads narrow.
If a farmer is concerned about declining wheat prices in the future and hedges in the
futures market, finds that spot wheat prices are increasing, then his spot gain will be
offset by the losses on the futures contracts.
2.
One uses the futures market to eliminate the risk of variable future spot prices.
3.
If not exercised, the holder would lose $3 per share; if exercised, the $3 premium paid
would be offset by a $2 gain per share in the purchase/sale of the stock less commissions.
4.
The S&L would be hurt if interest rates increased. They would sell futures contracts (Tbill or CD) or purchase put options (options to sell) on futures contracts. If rates do rise,
the S&L will lose in its business but gain by covering its futures sale at lower prices
(rates rise; financial futures prices decline).
5.
One will pay a higher premium if the chances of gain are higher or if the cost of
alternatives associated with trading the underlying item are higher.
6.
The farmer will have (be long in) wheat in the future so he shorts (sells) wheat futures
maturing just beyond the wheat harvest date.
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7.
Hedging means they have established a price for the future which hopefully allows them
to generate reasonable profits in their business activities. If "hedged" properly, the bank
will offset its balance sheet risk exposure by purchasing a T-bill futures contract.
8.
9.
The CFTC and the exchanges attempt to provide an orderly, fair marketplace.
10.
T-bill and CD yields (prices) are not likely to vary uniformly during the hedged period
due to the cross-hedge selected.
11.
12.
13.
b.
Buying an IBM call option that expires in 30 days will give the investor protection
against the IBM stock price going up beyond the strike price.
14.
b.
Taking a long position in 3-month T-bill futures contract would protect the portfolio
manager against price risk the risk of the T-bill prices increasing as rates decrease!
15.
c.
Swap parties do not have the same level of credit risk. In fact, credit risk differences
between the counterparties provide the impetus for some swaps.
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