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Reliability Basics: Failure Consequences of Failures

This document provides an overview of reliability concepts and terminology. It defines reliability as the ability of an object or process to fulfill demanded tasks. A failure is an event that leads to the loss of this ability. There are costs associated with failures, including repair costs, lost production, and other losses. Reliability is quantified using metrics like mean time between failures and probability of failure. Key distributions used to model reliability include the normal, lognormal, Weibull, and exponential distributions. The document also introduces reliability terminology and concepts like hazard rate, bathtub curve, and availability.

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Stoica Daniel
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56 views13 pages

Reliability Basics: Failure Consequences of Failures

This document provides an overview of reliability concepts and terminology. It defines reliability as the ability of an object or process to fulfill demanded tasks. A failure is an event that leads to the loss of this ability. There are costs associated with failures, including repair costs, lost production, and other losses. Reliability is quantified using metrics like mean time between failures and probability of failure. Key distributions used to model reliability include the normal, lognormal, Weibull, and exponential distributions. The document also introduces reliability terminology and concepts like hazard rate, bathtub curve, and availability.

Uploaded by

Stoica Daniel
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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RELIABILITY BASICS

(Prof. Jaroslav Menk)

RELIABILITY ability (of an object or process) to


fulfil the demanded tasks.

FAILURE an event leading to the loss of


ability to fulfil the demanded tasks.

Consequences of failures: LOSSES


1. Costs of repairs of the damaged component or structure,
2. Losses due to drop-out of production or other processes
(e.g. transport, traffic)
3. Other losses caused by the failure (fatalities, injuries,
ecological damages, but also damage of other
components or objects, caused by the failure).

USUAL QUESTIONS
RELATED TO RELIABILITY:
-

Why has the item (or process) failed ?


What are the consequences of this failure ?
Can it fail again in the future? When?
How many failures will appear during a certain
period?
What to do in order that no further failure appears?
May we admit some failures? How many or how
often?
Can we control reliability? What is the optimum rel.?
1

Is product A more reliable than product B?

There is permanent effort to prevent or avoid failures


and/or to minimize their consequences.
For this effort to be effective, a systematic approach is
necessary.

RELIABILITY VOCABULARY:
RELIABILITY - ability (of an object, process or
service) to fulfil the demanded tasks and meet the
specifications (under given conditions).

Reliability a component of quality.


Reliability is ability to keep quality in time.
QUALITY - ability (of a product or service) to
ensure complete customer satisfaction.
- e.g. a car: power, max. speed, consumption, noise,
color, acceleration, reliability
- or: lunch in a restaurant: taste, environment, speed of
the service, willingness of personnel
SAFETY - ability of an object not to endanger the
human health or life, environment, and properties
(= belongings).
DEPENDABILITY general term used to
characterize availability and factors, which

influence it: reliability, maintainability, and


maintenance support.
DEPENDABILITY general term used to
characterize availability and factors, which
influence it: reliability, maintainability, and
maintenance support:
AVAILABILITY - readiness for correct service
RELIABILITY - continuity of correct service
SAFETY - absence of catastrophic consequences
for the users and the environment

MAINTAINABILITY - ability of the object to be


maintained (and repaired)

FAILURE an event leading to the loss of ability


to fulfil the demanded tasks and meet the
specifications.

FAULT a defect on the item or object.


REPAIR - works for restoring full operability
after a failure.
RENEWAL (maintenance, repair, replacement).

MAINTENANCE - removing of minor faults,


adjustment, works for restoring full operability.

SOME QUESTIONS RELATED TO RELIABILITY:


-

Can it fail again in the future? When?


How many failures will appear during a certain
period?
May we admit some failures? How many or how
often?
Can we control reliability? What is the optimum rel.?
Is product A more reliable than product B?

We need to measure reliability !!


Quantitative characteristics are necessary !!!

QUANTITIES FOR RELIABILITY CHARACTERIZING


Time to failure (tf)
Time between failures (tf)
Items: repairable and unrepairable
Probability of failure (Pf)

Time between failure of a group of trolleybusses

UNREPAIRABLE ITEMS (components, objects)


Mean time to failure,

tf,ave = tf / nf

; (MTTF)

REPAIRABLE ITEMS
Mean time between failures, tu,ave = tu / nf ; (MTBF)
tu up time (time of operation, of work)
Mean down time, td,ave = td / nf
td down time (idle time)

; (MDT)

Mean time to repair, tr,ave = tr / nf ; (MTTR)


tr necessary time for repair (a part of down time)
AVAILABILITY:

(coefficient of availability A)

Probability that the object will be serviceable at any instant.

UNAVAILABILITY:

(coefficient of unavailability U)

Probability that the object will not be serviceable at any instant.


5

A = MTBF / (MTBF + MDT) ;


U = MDT / (MTBF + MDT) ;

A+U=1

Coefficient of availability of a group of trolleybusses

Occurence of a failure has partly random character.


Useful tools: theory of probability and statistical methods

Probability basics

Basic terms from probability theory


Probability - quantitative measure of possibility
that a random event occurs.
(0 P 1)
7

P = nof + events / nof trials

(lim n )

Random event - depends on random influences


and factors. It can or cannot occur.
(certain event, impossible event, random event, mass
e.)

Random variable attains certain value (in some


interval) with some probability.
R.V.: discrete and continuous
Discrete random quantities:
Number of failures during a time interval
Number of failed vehicles (or collisions)
Number of customers in a queue
Number of faulty items in a batch
Number of complaints of customers
Continuous random quantities:
Time to failure (hours, km, pieces, cycles)
Time of a repair
Strength
Temperature
Dimension (length, diameter, weight)

Characterization of random quantities


a) by single numbers (parameters, characteristics)
8

mean:

, xave = xj / n

scatter:

2, s2 = (xj xave)2 / (n 1)

standard deviation: , s = s2
coefficient of variation: = / v = s / xave
skewness: (= coeff. of asymmetry; shape of distr.)
curtosis: (sharpness of the distribution)
median: m (the medium term in the ordered row)
The use of parameters is simple. They can be
estimated even from a small number of values.
b) by probability distribution
p.d. = function describing the distribution (frequency)
of individual values along the numerical axis

Probability function p(x) (discrete random quantities)


p(x*) expresses the probability that the random
variable x attains the value x*,
p(x*) = P(x = x*)
Distribution function F(x) (disc. & contin. quantities)
F(x*) expresses the probability that the random
variable x attains values smaller or equal x*,
F(x*) = P(x x*)
Probability density f(x) (continuous variables)
f(x*) expresses the probability that the random
variable x will lie within an infinitesimally narrow
(unit) interval between x* and x* + dx.
x

f ( x) dF dx

F ( x)

f ( x) dx

10

Quantile x

(= inverse quantity to F)

x is such value of the random quantity x, that the


probability of x being smaller (or equal) to x is ,
P(x x) =
Critical value x
x is such value of the random quantity x, that the
probability of its exceeding is ,
P(x > x) =
Probability is complementary to ,
x = x1 , x = x1

=1

Probability distributions used in reliability


Binomial

number of positive outcomes in n trials, if the probability


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of positive outcome in each trial equals p.

Normal

if the variations are caused by many random factors

Lognormal

logarithm of random variable has normal distribution


F (t )

Weibull
Exponential

t t0
1 exp
a

weakest point

F(t) = 1 exp( t) = 1 exp( t/tm)

(= If the failures are caused by many reasons)

Reliability R(t)
Probability that the object continues to meet the
specification over a given period (from 0 to t)
12

Unreliability F(t)
Probability that the object fails to meet
the specification from 0 to t
R(t) = 1 F (t) , F(t) = 1 R (t)
FAILURE RATE probability of failure per unit time (h 1)
Mean failure rate, = (nf /n) / tf
Instantaneous failure rate

(hazard rate)

(t) = f(t) / R(t)

f = dF/dt

BATHTUB CURVE

I.

II.

III.

I. early failures period


(infant mortality)
II. steady-state operation, useful life
III. ageing and wear-out period

13

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