Fear Index Explodes As World Careens Toward Global Market Meltdown
Fear Index Explodes As World Careens Toward Global Market Meltdown
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 25,
following a day of steep drops in global markets the previous day in New York City.
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beginning of 2009. Rarely have investors borrowed such massive sums on margin.
Could this be the beginning of another Black Monday? Another
1929?
For a brief period, anxiety shot so high it blew out the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility indexoften referred
to as the fear gauge. The computer algorithms couldnt handle
the unprecedented volume as the index tripled. For 30 minutes,
investors were greeted with patchy data and empty screens.
The last time the index reacted so sharply, bad things followed. Think 2008 Great Recession and Wall Street meltdown.
But market participants should not have been flying blind.
The fear gauge was pinging all month. If it ends at these levels, it
will be the biggest one-month percentage gain in the fear gauge
in history.
A lot of other signs of trouble were evident too.
The riskier portion of the junk bond market, which many
corporations are forced to rely upon for their financing needs,
got absolutely massacred just days prior to the stock market
mayhem. The average cost to borrow for a ccc-rated company
spiked from 13 to 16 percent on August 13. It was less than 7 percent a little over a year ago. These kind of vertigo-inducing
events are rare in normal times, says analyst Wolf Richter. And
there havent been any [normal times] since the [last] financial
crisis.
In July, the Empire Manufacturing Indexthe all-important measure of business activity in New York Statealso plummeted to levels only before seen in the last two economic recessions.
Shipping rates have collapsed, highlighting the sharp slowdown in global trade. There is now a full-blown August storm
sweeping through global markets, writes the Telegraphs
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
Commodity prices are collapsing too. Oil dipped below $40
per barrel on Monday, down 60 percent from a year ago. Coal,
iron ore, potash, uranium, soybeans, sugarall down. Oranges,
wheat, nickel, silver, cementall down too.
Surely somebody should have noticed that something was
wrong.
On Monday, as world stock markets followed China and the
United States into the red, it became clear that it caught authorities off guard. In Australia, both Finance Minister Joe Hockey
MIDDLE EAST
SALVATION IS CREATION | AUGUST 28
THE DEMISE OF GLOBALIZATION AND THE RISE OF NATIONALISM | AUGUST 27
EXPERT: IM ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT! | AUGUST 26
NOURISHED BY GOOD DOCTRINE | AUGUST 25
BRITAIN PAYS FOR REPAIRS TO EMBASSY IRANIAN MOB RANSACKED |
AUGUST 24
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changed at all; Israel should be annihilated and this is our ultimate slogan, Sheikholeslam said Tuesday, according to the
semi-official Fars News.
Sheikholeslam also rebuffed Hammonds call for past hostilities between Iran and Britain to be forgotten, retorting that Iran
will never forget the past and Britains colonialist moves.
ran unveiled on Saturday its new Fateh-313 surface-to-surface missile with a 500 kilometer (300 mile) range, as well as
its massive 27-meter-tall Simorgh satellite launcher, which one
expert says may pave its way to intercontinental ballistic missiles
(icbms).
Tal Inbar, head of the Fisher Institute for Air & Space Strategic Studies Space Research Center, told Arutz Sheva on Saturday night that an analysis of the pictures of the new launcher
reveals a great likeness to North Koreas satellite launcher technology.
This rocket will allow Iran to launch satellites double the
weight it is currently able to, and additionally it will bring it
closer to expertise in the needed technologies for developing
especially long-ranged ballistic missiles up to intercontinental
ranges, said Inbar.
The expert appraised that Irans unveiling of the Fateh-313 is
meant to be a message to its rivals in the Persian Gulf such as
Saudi Arabia, and also a warning to Israel that it may transfer
the advanced new missiles to its terror proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It also has an element of protest against the fixed members
of the UN Security Council, [because] during the negotiations
with Iran on its nuclear program, Iran stated that its missile
disregarding Europes Dublin protocol and enraging the farright groups in the process.
Merkel called for restoring European values in tackling the
humanitarian problem, for sharing the burden dismissing the
far-right attacks as disgusting, how right-wing extremists and
neo-Nazis are trying to preach dull hate messages. Merkel also
vowed there will be no tolerance of those who question the dignity of other people.
Germanys embrace of thousands of Syrian asylum seekers exposes how little other countries have done on this issue.
Amnesty points out that excluding Germany and Sweden, the
heyre calling her Mama Merkel, sending her love messages on Twitter and showing gratitude unseen recently for
a Syrian or Arab leader. Germanys chancellor, Angela Merkel, is
being celebrated by many Syrians this week, for defying EU rules
and showing compassion to a refugee population thats been let
down all too often in the last four years.
Merkel might not be the most charismatic leader or orator
on the global stage, but this week, Germanys chancellor has
shown both the audacity and the empathy in addressing the Syrian refugee problem. On Tuesday, Berlin announced its intention to welcome all Syrian asylum seekers to stay in the country,
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remaining 26 EU countries have pledged a mere 5,105 resettlement places, or 0.13 percent of Syrian refugees in the main host
countries.
Ironically, the countries that are most involved militarily
in the Syrian war, with the exception of Turkey, are the ones
doing the least on the refugee issue.
With no end in sight for the Syrian war, however, and with
militias multiplying in numbers and nefariousness, the Syrian
refugee crisis is only expected to intensify in the coming period.
For Germanys chancellor, who is being called by some activists
as Merkel of Abyssinia in reference to the Muslim migration
to Ethiopia in the seventh century, this will boost Berlins credibility in the Middle East as an impartial problem solver, helping alleviate the suffering as many who directly contribute to it
EUROPE
THE RISE IN NATIONALISM | AUGUST 28
FEAR IN GLOBAL MARKETS, THE EUROPE OF THE BIBLE TAKES SHAPE, LIVE BY
EVERY WORD AND MORE | AUGUST 26
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high-volume train lines, so they will therefore remain vulnerable soft targets for the foreseeable future.
Second, the would-be attacker was known to security agencies in Spain and France. The number of potential attackers at
any given time is very high, especially in Europe, and authorities simply do not have the resources to place them all under
constant surveillance. Surveillance efforts must therefore
favor operatives who are considered to be the most dangerous.
This means that some possible assailants will continue to slip
through the cracks.
Third, the attacker was able to obtain weapons in Belgium.
Several attacks, including the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris
on January 7, and thwarted plots have been carried out with
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weapon not malfunctioned, the men may have had to charge into
a hail of fire. When confronted by danger, they possessed the
proper mindset to charge the gunman instead of freezing or sitting by passively in denial, waiting to be shot. Had they hesitated
and given the gunman time to clear the malfunction in his AK-47,
the story in the news today may have been far more tragic.
Serbia seeks to follow fellow former Yugoslav republics Slovenia and Croatia into the worlds biggest trading bloc and hopes
to gain entry by the end of the decade. Improving ties with the
former province is an EU condition for Serbia, which refuses to
recognize Kosovos 2008 secession.
In a way, this is recognition of Kosovo independence by Serbia, broadcaster B92 reported, citing Kosovos foreign minister,
Hashim Thaci. Serbia signed the documents under pressure
from the international community.
erbia resolved most of its disputes with Kosovo in European Union-mediated talks and signed four agreements with
the breakaway province that the EU blocs Foreign Policy Chief
Federica Mogherini described as landmark.
The documents allow Serb-populated municipalities in
Kosovo to run some of their affairs, such as education, health
care and economic development, with Serbias financial backing.
There are no more obstacles for starting accession talks
with the EU, Vucic said. Our European path is open.
TW IN BRIEF
ASIA
China Builds Up Its Fleet of Ships That Make Artificial Islands
War Is Boring | August 27
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results related to the chaos, according to George Chen, managing editor of the international edition of the South China Morning Post. When searching for the Chinese characters that translate to stock disaster, the results say that Due to related rules
and policy, some search results wont be shown.
auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Russia-led political-military bloc.
roops from Central Asia, Armenia and Belarus are conducting military exercises with Russia near the borders
of Estonia and Latvia. The exercises are being held under the
navies. This year, the drills are supposed to show a high level of
mutual strategic trust between armies of the two powers, which
is likely [to] promote both the strategic cooperation between
Beijing and Moscow and their military friendship.
If Beijing and Moscow decide to create an official alliance, it
would completely change global strategic map, while the U.S.
and Japan would face a real threat. Such an alliance would be
a true challenge for the next president of the United States to be
elected in 2016.
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Autonomous Region and also the 80th birthday of Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, who has lived in exile in India since
fleeing Tibet in 1959 following an abortive uprising.
We should fight against separatist activities by the Dalai
group, Xi was quoted as saying.
Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion in Treasuries in the Past Two Weeks
Zero Hedge | August 26
almost every week. According to figures compiled by the Atlantic Council, the Russian military held at least six major military exercises involving between 65,000 and 160,000 personnel
between the start of 2013 and the end of 2014. During the same
period, natos largest exercises barely exceeded 6,000 personnel.
Though the United States will likely continue to enjoy its
absolute training advantage well into the future, the wide lead
U.S. military planners have come to expect is no longer a guarantee. Both Russia and China appear to be determined to continue investing in their forces development, despite growing
financial constraints; even if military spending is ultimately
cut, training and instruction will likely continue to take precedence over other areas.
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Trumpet Weekly | August 28, 2015
ANGLO-AMERICA
Gerald Flurry,
The Key of David | August 28
meet state- and federally mandated requirements for providing services to students learning Englishan issue that has
plagued the district for decades.
Youre choosing between servicing your bilingual kids
and having a classroom with 40 kids. Thats the reality of student-based budgeting, says one former bilingual teacher who
asked not to be identified because she is looking for work in cps.
How are you going to justify hiring a teacher to pull out your
handful of kids in each grade that need support?
Today there are 66,000 students working to learn English
the majority speak Spanish as their first language.
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Trumpet Weekly | August 28, 2015
on terrorism-related charges, yet the U.S. State Department continues to import Somali refugees into the U.S. at a rate of 600 to
800 per month. Hundreds more are now coming from the jihadist capital of the world, Syria, even as persecuted Christians
from that country are ignored by the Obama administration.
uslim terrorists are entering Texas with the assistance of Mexican drug cartels, according to a July 30 report
from Judicial Watch.
According to the report, drug cartels smuggle Special Interest Aliens into stash areas around Acala, Texas, approximately
50 miles from El Paso on Highway 20. Terrorists then wait
there until they receive orders to disperse into other American
regions.
An internal Texas Department of Public Safety report documented that several members of known Islamist terrorist organizations have been apprehended crossing the southern border
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Trumpet Weekly | August 28, 2015
in recent years.
As the influence of Mexican drug cartels over the El Paso
region started insignificantly, so the influx of Muslim terrorists
is beginning marginally. Retired Navy seal and former fbi agent
Jonathan Gilliam stated, [Terrorists arrival in the United
States] probably means thats not the first time theyve gotten
people in this way. And its really scary when you think about it.
His fears are well founded.
In recent years, an increasing number of Muslim terrorist
attacks have occurred in America. Here are a few examples:
On July 16, a devout Muslim staged a suicide attack in Chattanooga, Tennessee, at two different military centers, leaving
at least five dead.
Europe
The 21st century was supposed to be a time for European openness and cooperation, but increasingly countries are turning to
an age-old tactic to isolate themselves: Theyre building [fences]
along their borders, noted Vocactiv on August 25. The refugee
Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and annexed
Crimeaall in an effort to augment and expand the Russian
nation. Most recently, Putin has embarked upon a nationwide
purge of food imported from certain foreign nations, mainly
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China
The National Interest wrote, on August 3: After a decade of
reaping the benefits of a soft-power offensive, Chinas peaceful rise took an abrupt turn in the late 2000s. The country that
emerged from a unique confluence of events beginning in 2008
has proven a more assertive, authoritarian and nationalistic
rising power.
Beijing is literally building islands in the South China Sea. It
is expanding its military and parading its weapons before the
world. In recent weeks, China devalued its currency by at least 3
percent to invigorate its manufacturing industry and export market. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese goods cheaper.
American authorities thought Beijing would be so intertwined
with the global order that it wouldnt do anything to destabilize
that order, as doing so would only hurt its own interests. But they
were wrong!
Some people are starting to realize that globalization is not
making the world safer, and its certainly not improving relations
with China. China is taking care of self!
Britain
In Britain, Nigel Farage and the United Kingdom Independence
Party remain popular despite setbacks in national elections earlier this year. Farage believes in a strong, independent Britain. He
America
Donald Trump, the front-runner in the race to become the Republican nominee for president, is Americas version of Nigel Farage.
Like Farage, Trump is candid, brave and totally fearless. He
doesnt worry too much about political correctness. He doesnt
mind offending other nations or peoples.
Trumps message has a distinct nationalist tone to it. His campaign slogan is Make America great again! The central question
for Trump on almost every issue is: What is best for America?
Like some nations in Europe, Donald Trump wants to build a
fence toothe great wall of Mexico that will be 2,000 miles long.
When he talks about China, or Mexico, or Japan, he uses terms
like competitors and opponents.
Nationalist sentiment is increasing across the planet.
The more extreme that economic conditions become, the
harder that nations will work to take care of their own.
If this nationalist trend continues, there will be more tensions, more rivalries, more disputes, more conflicts and, ultimately, more wars between countries and regions. As conditions
worsenespecially with the global economyexpect less cooperation, less collaboration and more tension and conflict!
Follow Brad Macdonald
OTHER NEWS
Scientists Replicated 100 Recent Psychology Experiments: More Than Half of Them Failed
Vox | August 27
WE TALKED ABOUT THIS
applauded the effort: Because the authors worked with the original researchers and repeated the experiments, the paper is an
example of the gold standard of replication.
But Stanfords John Ioannidis, who famously penned a paper
arguing that most published research findings are wrong,
explained that exactly because its the gold standard, the results
might be a little too generous; in reality, the replication failure
rate might be even higher.
I say this because the 100 assessed studies were all published in the best journals, so one would expect the quality of the
research and the false rates to be higher if studies from all journals were assessed, he said.
The 100 studies replicated ended up excluding some 50 others
for which the replication was thought to be too difficult. Among
those that did get attempted, difficult, challenging replication
was a strong predictor of replication failure, so the failure rates
might have been even higher in the 50 or so papers that no one
dared to replicate, Ioannidis said.
eplication is one of the foundational ideas behind science. Its when researchers take older studies and reproduce
them to see if the findings hold up.
Testing, validating, retesting: Its all part of the slow and grinding process to arrive at some semblance of scientific truth.
Yet it seems that way too often, when we hear about researchers trying to replicate studies, they simply flop or flounder. Some
have even called this a crisis of irreproducibility.
Consider the newest evidence: a landmark study published
today in the journal Science. More than 270 researchers from
around the world came together to replicate 100 recent findings from top psychology journals. By one measure, only 36 percent showed results that were consistent with the original findings. In other words, many more than half of the replications
failed.
The results are more or less consistent with what weve seen
in other fields, said Ivan Oransky, one of the founders of the blog
Retraction Watch, which tracks scientific retractions. Still, he
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