Balance Sheet Optimization
Balance Sheet Optimization
Summary
Historically low (and falling) interest rates, poor loan demand and growing cash
positions are pressuring margins
New Basel III capital requirements will be higher, forcing even healthy banks to
increase their capitalization levels
With Tangible Equity becoming more important (even to regulators), mark-to-market
risk in the securities portfolio is being scrutinized
Locking up longer-term liquidity is a priority given potential Basel III requirements and
movement towards stress-testing even for community banks
The current market environment presents a significant opportunity to improve capital,
liquidity and/or earnings organically through balance sheet / capital optimization
Regulators are still focused on rising rate risk despite current rate outlook
fortunately it is quite inexpensive to reduce rising rate risk today and can often be
done without reducing current earnings
IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO DECIDE, YOU STILL HAVE MADE A CHOICE!
- Rush, Freewill, 1980
Sandler ONeill Balance Sheet Seminar 2011 | 2
The best scenario can be derived by running a capital optimization that will identify
the best series of transactions that accomplish the banks objectives, subject to
pledging, liquidity, earnings impact and other constraints
Todays very low rate environment is IDEAL for optimizing balance sheets:
The largest gains on asset sales are on long duration assets
The smallest prepayment penalties on funding are on shorter-duration funding
As a result, the optimal delevering transaction ALSO reduces the banks exposure to rising
rates by taking a longer-asset / shorter liability position off the balance sheet
In many cases, we are able to improve capital without taking losses, without giving up
earnings, and with a balance sheet that is less exposed to higher rates
The ideal candidate for this should have at least two of the following characteristics:
REMEMBER: You can improve capital ratios even if you take losses (numerator / denominator)
Estimate the unwind and/or securitization price on all liquid assets and liabilities that could be
used in a delevering transaction:
Cash
Investment securities
Loans (particularly loans held-for-sale)
Brokered Deposits
Repurchase agreements
FHLB advances
Enter this data into a model template as assets / liabilities available for unwind
Enter the banks base case financial ratios into the model
Build constraints into the model around ratios, profitability, liquidity and pledging
Through linear programming / optimization technology, seek out the solution that maximizes the
benefit to capital given the constraints we have established by determining the optimal mix of
assets sold and liabilities unwound / prepaid.
This is accomplished by considering EVERY line item for possible sale / securitization (asset) or
unwind (funding), with cash imbalances either reinvested or reborrowed as necessary, subject to
all the constraints under which we are operating.
The model then shows how the resulting transaction impacts all ratios and future earnings
A $2.5 billion bank is looking to improve capital and earnings while maintaining adequate levels
of liquidity (cash + unpledged securities), and does not wish to take rising rate exposure
Current capital ratios are roughly 8.25% (Leverage) and 13% (Risk-Based)
The bank has high levels of brokered deposits and FHLB advances and an investment portfolio
that represents a material % of assets
The bank has a very large cash position due to deposit inflows and low loan growth
There are gains in the investment portfolio given the low rate environment however all of their
securities are pledged against funding
We ran four different simulations subject to different constraints, which produced extraordinary
results which greatly exceeded the banks initial expectations.
The bank is now executing a delevering transaction which will accomplish the following:
Strategy Deployed
8.27%
9.30%
+1.03%
25,367
7.78%
8.55%
+0.76%
11.56%
11.79%
+0.23%
12.82%
13.08%
+0.26%
193,864
4.12%
Funding Unwound:
(272,740)
Cost:
2.56%
Cash Used:
78,876
Impact on Earnings
One-time Pre-Tax Gain/(Loss)
One-time Post-Tax Gain/(Loss)
Change in Annual Net Interest Income
12
7
(1,066)
(Gain)
(Gain)
(Decrease)
14.42%
7.20%
Change
-7.22%
Flat
Up 300
1.46
2.32
0.65
0.81
0.66
1.65
Baseline
Sale / Prepay Strategy
Restructure Borrowings
Redeploy Cash
Purchase Caps
Post-Trade (Pre-Tax)
Difference
Net
Interest
Income
82,884
(1,110)
1,296
1,750
(4)
84,816
1,932
Earning
Assets
2,376,018
2,103,278
2,103,278
2,103,278
2,101,638
2,101,638
(274,380)
Net
Interest
Margin
3.49%
3.89%
3.95%
4.03%
4.04%
4.04%
0.55%
AssetBased
Liquidity
Ratio
14.42%
7.20%
7.20%
7.20%
7.12%
7.12%
(7.30%)
Tier 1
Leverage
Capital
8.27%
9.30%
9.30%
9.30%
9.31%
9.31%
1.04%
Total RiskBased
Capital
12.82%
13.08%
13.08%
13.08%
13.08%
13.08%
0.26%
NII
$90,000
$85,000
$80,000
$75,000
BEFORE
RESTRUCTURING
AFTER RESTRUCTURING
Flat
AFTER HEDGE
+300
Tangible equity (TE) is important to public companies, as well as banks looking to raise
equity, since equity valuations are currently tied to TE
In addition, new capital requirements under Basel III would make TE the 4th regulatory
ratio to which banks must manage
Unrealized gains / losses on AFS are backed out of current regulatory capital ratios but
NOT out of TE
With rates dangerously low, this means banks with securities classified as Available for
Sale are carrying unnecessary exposure to TE if the market value of those securities
erodes as rates rise
This is exacerbated as banks redeploy excess cash into bonds, adding market value
exposure to the equity account
AFS securities are one of the ONLY instruments on bank balance sheets that are markedto-market through capital (not through earnings)
The other instruments that are treated this way are interest rate derivatives designated as
cash flow hedges under ASC/815, codification of guidance originally issued under
FAS133*
The preservation of Tangible Equity is the most-frequently stated goal community banks
cite for increasing use of these instruments
Most common transactions involve paying fixed on swaps, and buying interest rate caps:
These are hedges against rising rates, which must be attached to an asset or liability for hedge
accounting purposes*
If effective hedges, they are marked to market through Other Comprehensive Income (OCI), a
component of Tangible Equity
As rates rise, these instruments increase in value and gains flow into OCI, offsetting losses from the
AFS portfolio
Basel III will force banks to hold more on-balance sheet liquidity and penalize banks whose liquidity
sources are not termed out:
Liquidity Coverage Ratio : High Quality Liquid Assets must be available to cover 30 days
net cash outflows
Net Stable Funding Ratio: Requires a minimum amount of stable funding over a one-year
period, intended to increase long-term funding of bank balance sheet requirements (minimum
requirement not yet set)
In addition, there are increasing calls from regulators, Congress and the financial press to have
community banks run the stress tests that large banks have run
In combination, these forces are pushing banks to extend the maturity of their funding sources even
at a time when short-term liquidity is growing
IMPACT ON EARNINGS
IMPACT ON EVE
Minimal
Disintermediation of
Non-Maturity Deposits
(NMD) into short-term
time deposits
Minimal
Adding leverage requires that the bank have excess capital, another consideration
when making the decision as to what to do
Sandler ONeill Balance Sheet Seminar 2011 | 24
IMPACT ON
EARNINGS AT
RISK
IMPACT ON EVE
ACCOUNTING
ISSUES*
Earnings at risk
should decline due
to the shorter
duration of the new
securities
Restructure wholesale
funding to extend
duration / reduce option
risk
Earnings at risk
should decline due
to the longer
duration of the new
funding
Pre-refinance maturing
borrowings
Earnings at risk
should decline due
to the longer
funding
None
Delever by selling
longer-duration assets
and unwinding / running
off shorter-duration
funding
FAS 115
HTM tainting
Reserve
recapture
(loans)
Issues if loans
were not HFS
None
ASC/815,
codification
of guidance
originally
issued under
FAS133 deals
with
embedded
derivatives
Restructure bond
portfolio to shorten
duration
Structured Funding or
Investments w/
Embedded Caps
Earnings at risk
should decline
since bank unwind
longer assets than
funding
Earnings at risk
should decline due
to impact of caps
FAS 115
HTM tainting
ASC/470-50,
codification of
guidance
originally
issued under
EITF 96-19
If executed without hedge accounting, these instruments must be marked through earnings,
creating potential income/capital volatility and generally only used in this way to offset trading
positions. We do not consider this option in this presentation.
If executed using hedge accounting, mark-to-market stays on-balance sheet and flows through
OCI, providing a natural tangible equity hedge versus AFS securities (One of the only ways to
protect tangible equity if rates rise)
If hedge is not perfect, the ineffectiveness is marked to market and goes through earnings
In a normal yield curve environment, swaps and caps impact earnings differently as follows:
Interest rate swaps: Immediately decrease earnings due to negative carry between fixed rate paid and
floating rate received (unless forward-starting)
Interest rate caps: Premium paid up-front but deferred and amortized in a backloaded fashion, which
creates very little cost in early years and higher cost in later years
Very balance-sheet efficient way to hedge both EAR and VAR if accounting works
Banks should only use counterparties who will post liquid collateral to cover their counterparty risk
Sandler ONeill Balance Sheet Seminar 2011 | 26
Short-term FHLB
advances, repo or
brokered CDs
Term borrowings to be
issued in the future (Rate
Locks)
IMPACT ON
CURRENT
EARNINGS
Decline, since fixed
rate paid on swap
higher than initial
floating rate received
(steep yield curve)
IMPACT ON
EARNINGS
AT RISK
Improved TruPS
are now at a fixed
rate
Improved
advances / repo /
CDs are now at a
fixed rate
None
Improved bank
has locked in cost of
future funding
Improved loan is
now floating rate
IMPACT
ON EVE
Improved
since swap
should
appreciate in
value as rates
rise
Improved
since swap
should
appreciate in
value as rates
rise
Improved
since cap
should
appreciate in
value as rates
rise
Improved
since swap
should
appreciate
rates rise
Improved
since swap
should
appreciate as
rates rise
IMPACT ON CAPITAL
RATIOS
ACCOUNTING AND
OTHER ISSUES*
Libor-based floating
rate Trust Preferreds
issued by the bank
Short-term FHLB
advances, repo or
brokered CDs
IMPACT ON CURRENT
EARNINGS
IMPACT ON
EARNINGS AT RISK
IMPACT ON
EVE
IMPACT ON CAPITAL
RATIOS
ACCOUNTING AND
OTHER ISSUES*
Improved
since cap
should
appreciate in
value as
rates rise
Improved
since cap
should
appreciate in
value as
rates rise
Improved
since cap
should
appreciate in
value as
rates rise
Example #1
A mid-sized bank presented themselves as being exposed to rising interest rates
SYMPTOMS: Bank showed a 12% decline in NII in an +300 rising rate environment
DIAGNOSIS: Exposure comes from combination of floors in loans, and fundamentally longer assets than liabilities
VITAL SIGNS: The bank has small cash position and is well-capitalized, but not excessively so. The bank has a sizeable investment
portfolio showing some gains, with book yield just over 4%. The bank has a large amount of FHLB advances maturing in the next 18
months and expects to roll the borrowings over; Bank also has longer-term putable FHLB advances at high costs
ALLERGIES : Bank cant take losses but is willing to give up some current earnings. Bank will NOT use derivatives.
THE PRESCRIPTION: Sandler ONeill addressed the banks interest rate risk issues as follows:
- Sold longer-term MBS at a profit
- Prepaid enough longer-term FHLB advances to soak up the gains through prepayment penalties
- Reinvested the remaining cash proceeds into short-duration CMOs and floating rate SBA pools.
- Restructured the shorter FHLB advances through a Modification transaction which extended duration
The results?
The bank was able to significantly reduce their rising rate risk, both NII and EVE, due
to shorter bond portfolio duration and longer funding duration
No one-time gain/loss
Reduced yield on reinvested securities by 150bp
Eliminated borrowings that were at an average cost of over 4%
Reduced cost of restructured borrowings by 40bp
NET EARNINGS RESULT: Bank reduced current NII modestly, while cutting their NII
volatility in half
Example #2
A small, troubled community bank presented themselves as being exposed to rising interest rates
SYMPTOMS: Bank showed such significant volatility to rising rates, both on NII and EVE volatility, and is so tight on tangible equity that
they were ordered by their regulators to fix the problem
DIAGNOSIS: Exposure comes from having a traditional thrift-like balance sheet, with mortgage loans and MBS funded with interestbearing NMD and short-term CDs
VITAL SIGNS: The bank has no asset-based liquidity, limited borrowing capacity and is operating under a regulatory order to improve
capital; Investment portfolio underwater since bonds are primarily non-agency MBS; The bank has no brokered CDs or short-term
borrowings; The bank has substantial interest-bearing NMD that are NOT pegged but have historically shown correlation to Libor. Bank
condition makes it unlikely that they could get credit to do interest rate swaps. The bank has no short-term borrowings.
ALLERGIES : Bank cant take losses or add leverage due to tight capital; Bank is willing to give up earnings though prefers not to
THE PRESCRIPTION: This banks ONLY option was to purchase interest rate caps. The bank understands they will incur
ineffectiveness if they dont move their deposit rates in lockstep with Libor.
The results?
The bank was able to significantly reduce their rising rate risk, both NII and EVE,
without materially impacting current capital or earnings
The bank added protection against a decline in tangible equity due to AFS portfolio
since cap will be marked through OCI
Example #3
A small regional bank presented themselves as being exposed to rising interest rates
SYMPTOMS: NII, currently at approximately $100 million, is expected to decline by $7 to $8 million if short-term rates rise 300bp; EVE
and tangible equity not a concern because bank has ample capital
DIAGNOSIS: Exposure comes from having large blocks of rate-sensitive NMD as well as FHLB advances and brokered CDs maturing
in the next 18 months, AND having floors in their commercial loans that are a good 200bp in the money
VITAL SIGNS: The bank currently has $400 million in cash which could be invested and ample capital which could be levered; The
bank has $30 million of floating rate Trust Preferreds, $150 million of pegged public deposits, and $300+ million in unpegged NMD
ALLERGIES : Bank is not willing to give up current earnings, is not willing to take one-time losses, and wants to pay off borrowings and
brokered CDs since they are so liquid. Bank is not opposed to using derivatives as long as hedge accounting works well.
THE PRESCRIPTION: Sandler ONeill developed a three-step strategy that will mitigate the banks +300 rate exposure while modestly
improving current earnings, as follows:
- Invest $200 million of cash into a structured investment (repo or agency CMO) where the yield will rise twice as fast as rates for the
first 200bp or so of Fed tightening
- Purchase $130 million of interest rate caps, designated as hedges of the banks Trust Preferreds and a portion of their pegged
customer repo
- Add $94 million of leverage using short MBS and funding with embedded caps (spread on the leverage will widen as rates rise)
Rate Shock
Flat
+1%
+2%
+3%
+4%
+5%
Year 1
372
3,316
6,261
8,661
7,961
7,261
Year 2
(289)
2,656
5,600
8,000
7,300
6,600
Year 3
(1,714)
1,230
4,174
6,574
5,874
5,174