ventura county

Market Overview a monthly real estate report | April 2010

The State of the Market

Breaking News – At the time of production of than the original asking price and $32,315 less mortgage interest rates and a continuing supply
this report, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger than the median asking price. of distressed homes to keep sellers realistic
signed AB 183, authored by Assembly member about pricing.
Anna Caballero (D-Salinas) and Senator Roy Just as sellers found difficulties in meeting
Ashburn (R-Bakersfield), which will provide mortgage obligations in 2009, buyers also In addition, the federal tax credit for first-time
a tax credit of up to $10,000 to Californians faced financing challenges. A startling 63% and move-up buyers is good until the end of
who are buying their first home or purchasing a of homes fell out of escrow prior to closing, April 2010. Qualified buyers need only to have
brand-new home. Consult your tax advisor and with nearly 70% of buyers unable to get an a solid contract and take possession by June 31,
see your local Prudential California Realty sales acceptable mortgage, according to sellers 2010.
professional for more details. surveyed. More than 60% of sellers cited
buyers “backing out” as the primary reason the Proof that incentives are working is the increase
For the past few years, California has home fell out of escrow. Other reasons cited in first-time home buyers: 47% in 2009,
experienced significant setbacks in housing were buyer’s remorse (26%), lender withdrew up from 35.9% in 2008. That’s the highest
— including its dubious position as the state and did not fund (24%), and declining home percentage increase since 1995. Typically, says
with the second-highest foreclosure rate in the prices (18%). the National Association of REALTORS®,
nation. first-time home buyers make up about 40% of
Even homes that sold faced hurdles, failing the market.
According to the California Association of to close on time 50% of the time compared
REALTORS® recent study of 2009 and 2010 to 36% of the time in 2008. Subsequently, In a recent survey of home buyers, C.A.R.
home sellers, 67% of California home owners seller confidence in buyers’ ability to close found that nearly 40% said they would not have
put their homes on the market in 2009 as a plummeted, with 75% of sellers reporting purchased without the tax credit incentive. One
result of difficulties related to meeting their concern, an increase from 54% in 2008. reason for its strong appeal is that the Federal
mortgage obligation. That’s a substantial Housing Administration (FHA) increased its
increase over 2008, when C.A.R. found 20% Particularly hard-hit were first-time sellers qualifying loan guarantee from $362,790 to
of homeowners, or one in five, sold due to (59%). Nearly half of surveyed sellers had $729,750 for high-cost areas such as California.
financial difficulties. owned their homes for two years or less, Reflecting that move, the percentage of home
compared to one-third in 2008. First-time buyers using an FHA-insured loan increased to
Among the reasons for such sales cited in 2009 home sellers increased to 44% of all sellers, 32% in 2009 from 18.9% in 2008. These loans
and 2010 were difficulty meeting mortgage compared to 33% in 2008. also allowed first-timers to buy bigger. Most
obligations (30%), job loss (18%) and resetting purchased single-family homes (80%) at an
adjustable loans (18%). Lower housing After such a thrashing, one out of three sellers average 1,560 square feet, compared to 1,300
prices rendered some home owners unable to surveyed moved out of California in 2009, square feet in 2005.
refinance; others saw home prices fall below compared to one in four in 2008.
what they owed on their mortgages. Investors also jumped back in the pool, with
According to First American CoreLogic, 35% 70% purchasing short sales and REOs (bank-
Not surprisingly, only 7.5% of surveyed sellers of California mortgage holders are underwater owned properties). The median price of a
reported they had a fixed-rate mortgage. 92.5% — meaning they owe more on their mortgage typical investment property was $232,750,
had an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) with a than their home is worth. This makes it appear with a median size of 1,367 square feet.
two-year, three-year or five-year fixed rate, or a that 2010 will be as challenging for sellers as
negative amortization ARM. 2009 was. The momentum generated by first-time and
move-up buyers purchasing with government-
Nearly half of homes sold in 2009 were Good news for buyers guaranteed loans and investors buying with
distressed homes in some stage of foreclosure As difficult as the market is for sellers, buyers cash largely moved mostly homes priced under
or short sales. As a result of having such a high are responding to extraordinary incentives — $500,000, causing quick sales, multiple offers
number of distressed homes on the market, including the most affordable home prices in and rising prices in “affordable” homes.
homes that sold in 2009 averaged $20,958 less a decade, historically low government-aided
For that reason, the median California home months of supply, versus 4.5 to 15 months tax time, when home owners get to take
price is projected to increase to $280,000 in a year ago. Homes priced $1 million and advantage of mortgage interest rate and
2010 from $271,000 in 2009. above were at 27.9 months of supply on property tax deductions, energy rebates and
hand a year ago, and at 15.7 months on other incentives.
Like the rest of the nation, home sales hand to date.
volume declined in February 2010 (-2.2% Advice for sellers: Because buyers currently
from January), but curiously, the median Overall, C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index have the most incentives, now is the time to
price rose 14.1% year-over-year, from stands at 6.3 months on hand compared to put the best possible price on your home.
$245,230 in February 2009 to $279,840. 7.1 months’ supply a year ago. Keep in mind that buyers taking advantage
of first-time and move-up buyer tax credits
California Association of REALTORS® Advice for buyers: Because of uncertainty must make their decision to buy quickly,
chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young about what will happen in the marketplace so be available and agreeable for contract
explains the anomaly: “Supply continues after the home buyer tax incentive is negotiations. The more negatives you can
to lag demand at the more affordable end removed, home buyers may be tempted to overcome before a buyer sees your home,
of the market, with a 3.9-month supply of wait and see if prices fall further — but that the less there will be to negotiate, and the
homes priced below $300,000, compared possibility must be weighed against possible higher the likelihood of agreeing on a price
with the long-run average of more than rising mortgage interest rates or tighter loan and terms quickly and solidly.
seven months. This contrasts sharply with standards. Incentives are here now, and they
the nearly 15-month supply of homes for won’t last.
sales priced at $1 million or more at the
upper end of the market.” This is the time to go by the numbers.
Weigh as many calculations as you can,
However, large inventories have been including tax incentives to help with your
chipped away. For homes priced under $1 closing costs. Weigh the cost of renting vs.
million, inventories are between 3 and 8 the cost of home ownership, including at

Ventura county

Like other areas of Southern California, Ventura County is enjoying a healthy seller’s market in homes priced
under $1 million, and sales of homes priced under $3 million are also brisk. But the seller’s market quickly
changes to a buyer’s market in the higher price ranges.

*A balanced market is widely accepted as having six months of inventory on hand with market conditions favorable to both buyers and sellers.
A buyer’s market is characterized by conditions such as high inventories, falling prices, concessions by sellers, and incentives among other
indicators. A seller’s market has low inventories of homes for sale, escalating prices, and keen competition between buyers, including multiple
offers.

Detached homes stand alone and share no common walls with any other neighboring home. Attached homes share at least one common wall
with another home. The type of home ownership is determined by whether it is a condominium, townhome, duplex, co-operative or other.

With over 3,400 sales associates in 58 offices across Southern California and the Central Coast, Prudential California
Realty is the name to trust when buying or selling a home. Our agents close more than $12 billion in sales volume and well over
16,000 transactions each year. We also provide every aspect of domestic and international relocation to corporations around the
world. As one of the top five brokerages in the nation and the largest affiliate in the Prudential Real Estate international network,
we have the resources and connections to protect your interests and make sure your experience is a successful one.

Prudential California Realty is proud to be a member of HomeServices of America Inc., a Berkshire Hathaway affiliate.
For more information, visit www.prudentialcal.com.
 Inventory in Months’ Supply – March 4, 2010
Detached properties in Ventura MLS

Detached Properties - Inventory in Months

Under $300K 1.3
Detached homes are selling at a blistering pace in the
$300K - $399K 1.5
conforming loan ranges and above to $900K. Homes
$400K - $499K 2.5
priced $900K and over are in a buyer’s market, but one
$500K - $599K 3.1
that can easily recover if inventory levels remain under
$600K - $699K 2.9
control.
$700K - $799K 4.3
$800K - $899K 4.9
$900K and over 10.3
Inventory in Months’ Supply – March 4, 2010
0.0
Attached 2.0
properties in 4.0 6.0
Ventura MLS 8.0 10.0 12.0

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.
Attached Properties - Inventory in Months

Under $300K 1.8

Attached homes are also selling briskly, but hit a wall of
$300K - $399K 2.9
excess inventory at $700K to $799K. Curiously, homes
$400K - $499K 3.3
priced between $800K and $899K are selling faster.
$500K - $599K 5.1
$600K - $699K 4.8
$700K - $799K 15.0
$800K - $899K 8.7
Pricing Reality – March 4, 2010
List prices per square foot by MLS status 19.5
$900K and over

Detached
0.0 properties
5.0 in Ventura15.0
10.0 MLS 20.0 25.0

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.

Detached Properties - Pricing Realty for Sellers, per square foot

Sellers should carefully consider current buyer
ACTIVE $431 The large gap between listing price per square foot and
demand when pricing their home for sale.
When list prices per square foot of Backup
and Pending status properties are below that
those of solds and pendings underscores the seller’s
of Active properties, sellers should ask for
CONTINGENT-1ST pricing counsel from their Agent.
RIGHT $260 market in the affordable ranges.

CONTINGENT-BACK
UP $259

PENDING $257

RELEASE FROM
SHOWING $328

Pricing
SOLD Reality – March 4, 2010
$263
List prices per square foot by MLS status
Attached properties in Ventura MLS
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500

Attached Properties - Pricing Realty for Sellers, per square foot

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.

Sellers should carefully consider current buyer

ACTIVE $285 demand when pricing their home for sale.
A large increase in pending price per square foot
When list prices per square foot of Backup
and Pending status properties are below that
suggests more expensive attached home properties are
of Active properties, sellers should ask for
CONTINGENT-1ST pricing counsel from their Agent.
RIGHT $211 selling.
CONTINGENT-BACK
UP $207

PENDING $479

RELEASE FROM
SHOWING $242

SOLD $220

$0 $200 $400 $600

Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved. Use is by license agreement only.
 Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed
Detached properties in Ventura MLS
12 months through February, 2010

Detached Properties - Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed

12 Months through January 2010
900 700
New Listings Listings Absorbed
800
737
767
600
Inventory levels were lowest in December 2009 before
700 rising 56% in February 2010. However, absorption
653 619 640
599 624 500
600 570 571 601
554 rates have risen only 6% for the same period, which
494
500 400 should warn home sellers against “testing the market.”
400 300

300
200
200
100
100

0 0
2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12 2010/01 2010/02

New Listings 653 570 571 601 599 624 619 640 554 494 737 767
Listings Absorbed 539 594 556 573 567 556 534 547 510 487 440 514
Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed
Attached properties in Ventura MLS
12 months through February, 2010

Attached Properties - Monthly Listings Taken and Absorbed

12 Months through January 2010
350 210
New Listings Listings Absorbed
300
295 Attached home inventories are up 42%, while
200
269
244
absorption rates are nearly flat at +0.4%. For the last
250 232 239
212
190 two months, more listings have been added to the
203 202
200 180
173 173 market than taken away.
161 180
150

170
100

160
50

0 150
2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12 2010/01 2010/02

New Listings 232 161 180 203 244 202 212 239 173 173 269 295
Listings Absorbed 176 195 181 181 189 200 179 203 183 190 171 196

Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

All residential properties in Ventura MLS
9 quarters List Price Range (Less than $1 million) through December 31, 2009
Detached & Attached Properties - Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter
9 Quarters through December 31, 2009
Average Sale Price (Thousands) Homes Sold

$600 3,000
Avg Sale Price Listings Sold Units
After falling in 2008 and hitting bottom in Q1 2009,
$500 2,500
2,109
2,062 2,071 2,050 2,050 affordable home prices rose steadily in Q2 and Q3,
$400
1,764 1,734 2,000
only to pull back slightly in Q4 2009.
$300 1,500
1,046
1,006
$200 1,000

$516 $472 $461 $427 $383 $356 $390 $410 $399

$100 500
1-year avg. price trend: Up 3.9 % 1-year sales trend: Down 0.6 %
2-year avg. price trend: Down 22.8 % 2-year sales trend: Up 103.8 %

$0 0
2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4

Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

Detached properties in Ventura MLS
Based on data supplied by Ventura County Regional Datashare Multiple Listing Service and its member Associations of REALTORS, who are not responsible for its accuracy.
9 Analysis
quarters through December 31, 2009
dates are October 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Does not reflect all activity in the market place. Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Detached Properties - Listings Sold by Calendar Quarter

9 Quarters through December 31, 2009
Average Sale Price (Thousands) Homes Sold

$800 2,000
Avg Sale Price Listings Sold Units
1,707
1,642 1,630 1,637
Sales volume in Q4 2009 was nearly twice the pace
1,575
$600
1,465
1,387 1,500 of Q4 2007, but fell below the pace set in Q4 2008.
Prices were up for the year in 2009, but it remains to
$400
842 847 1,000 be seen whether average prices will sustain gains.

$757 $699 $607 $572 $498 $431 $499 $544 $519

$200 500

1-year avg. price trend: Up 4.4 % 1-year sales trend: Down 4.1 %
2-year avg. price trend: Down 31.4 % 2-year sales trend: Up 87.1 %

$0 0
2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4

Based on data supplied by Ventura County Regional Datashare Multiple Listing Service and its member Associations of REALTORS, who are not responsible for its accuracy.
Analysis dates are October 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Does not reflect all activity in the market place. Copyright © 2010, Real Data Strategies, Inc. All rights reserved.

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