Hal 279

\Exercise questions
1 If you toss two fair coins, what is the probability of two heads?
2 If you toss two fair coins, what is the probability of a head followed by a tail?
3 If you toss three fair coins, what is the probability of a head followed by two
tails?
4 How do the probabilities in questions 1, 2 and 3 change if the coins are biased
so that the
probability of a tail is 0.2?
5 If the experiment in question 1 were done 100 times, what is the expected
number of times that
two heads would occur?
6 Construct a grid to show the various possible total scores if two dice are
thrown. From this,
find the following probabilities:
a. a score of three;
b. a score of nine;
c. a score of seven;
d. a double being thrown.
7 When two dice are thrown, what is the probability of a three followed by a
five?
8 A die is thrown and a coin is tossed, what is the probability of a one and a tail?
9 From a normal pack of 52 cards, consisting of four suits each of 13 cards, on
taking out one
card, find the following probabilities:
a. an ace;
b. a club;
c. an ace or a club;
d. the ace of clubs;
e. a picture card (i.e. a jack, queen or king);
f. a red card;
g. a red king;
h. a red picture card.

10 The table below provides information about 200 school leavers and their
destination after
leaving school.
Leave school at 16 Leave at a higher age
Destination (L16) (L>16)
Go into full-time ed. (E) 14 18
Go into full-time job (J) 96 44
Other (unemployed, part-time job etc.) (O) 15 13
Determine the following probabilities that a person selected at random:
(i) went into full-time education;
(ii) went into a full-time job;
(iii) either went into full-time education OR went into a full-time job;
(iv) left school at 16;
280 Part III MeasurIng uncertaInty
(v) left school at 16 AND went into full-time education;
(vi) went into full-time education AND went into a full-time job.
11 An office has 100 typewriters. Some are electric (E) and some manual (M),
and some of the
machines are new (N) and others used (U). The mix is shown in the table below:
Electric (E) Manual (M) Total
New (N) 40 30 70
Used (U) 20 10 30
Total 60 40 100
A person picks one machine at random:
(i) What is the probability it is new?
(ii) What is the probability it is electric?
(iii) If he discovers that it is electric what is the probability it is new?
12 A company manufactures red and blue plastic pigs; 5 per cent red and 10 per
cent blue are
misshapen during manufacture. If the company makes equal numbers of each
colour, what is
the probability of selecting a misshapen pig on a random selection? How would
the probability

change if 60 per cent of the pigs manufactured were blue? In a sample of three,
what is the
probability of getting two misshapen red pigs?
13 A student group contains 40 men and 50 women. Of the men, 60 per cent
support longer
opening hours for the Union Bar, while the corresponding figure is 80 per cent for
the women.
What is the probability of:
a. selecting a woman;
b. selecting someone against longer opening hours;
c. selecting someone against longer opening hours, given you have selected a
man.
14 A switch has a 0.9 probability of working effectively. If it does work, then the
probability
remains the same on the next occasion that it is used. If, however, it does not
work effectively,
then the probability it works on the next occasion is 0.1. Use a tree diagram to
find the
probability:
a. it works on three successive occasions;
b. it fails, but then works on the next two occasions;
c. on four occasions it works, fails, works and then fails.
15 A man arrives home at midnight drunk. In order to placate his partner he
decides to present
her with some flowers picked from the flower bed. The flower bed contains a
randomly placed
selection of 10 tulips, 15 daffodils and 5 assorted weeds. He picks at random 3
flowers. Use a
probability tree to determine the probability that:
a. they are all weeds;
b. the bunch contains two tulips and one daffodil;
c. the bunch contains one tulip, one daffodil and one weed.
16 Each month DINGO Ltd. receive a shipment of 1000 parts from their supplier.
Past experience
indicates that on average 100 will be defective. As part of DINGOs quality
control a sample of

three items are selected randomly for inspection. If more than one of the sample
is defective
the order is returned. What proportion of shipments might be expected to be
returned?
281Chapter 9 probability
17 Three bus companies serve a small town in Yorkshire. Company X has 50 per
cent of all
scheduled routes, company Y has 30 per cent and company Z has the remaining
20 per cent.
The likelihood of them leaving the towns bus station on time are 80 per cent, 65
per cent and
40 per cent respectively. A bus has just left the bus station on time, what is the
probability that
it was a company Z bus?
18 In a jam factory a metal detector is used to locate pieces of metal in pots of
jam. In 95 per cent
of the time it will detect metal given it is present and 6 per cent of the time it will
detect metal
given it is not present. Experience has shown that 2 per cent of pots contain
metal.
a. Find the probability that the detector correctly diagnoses the presence of
metal in a jar.
b. Find the probability that metal is detected if metal is either present or not.
c. Find the probability that detector correctly diagnoses a jar.
d. Given that 95 per cent of customers would sue if metal was present, find the
percentage
of pots, not discovered by the detector, that would otherwise result in litigation.
19 A small company has developed a new product for the electronics industry.
The company
believes that an advertising campaign costing 2000 would give the product a
70 per cent
chance of success. It estimates that a product with this advertising support
would provide a
return of 11 000 if successful and a return of 2000 if not successful. Past
experience suggests
that without advertising support a new product of this kind would have a 50 per
cent chance of

success giving a return of 10 000 if successful and a return of 1500 if not

successful.
Construct a decision tree and write a report advising the company on its best
course of action.
20 In order to be able to meet an anticipated increase in demand for a basic
industrial material a
business is considering ways of developing the manufacturing process. After
meeting current
operating costs the business expects to make a net profit of 16 000 from its
existing process
when running at full capacity. All the data relates to the same period.
The Production Manager has listed the following possible courses of action.
a. Continue to operate the existing plant and not expand to meet the new level
of demand.
b. Undertake a research programme which would cost 20 000 and has been
given a 0.8
chance of success. If successful, a net profit of 60 000 is expected (before
charging the
research cost). If not successful a net profit of 5000 is expected.
c. Undertake a less expensive research programme costing 8000 which has
been given a 0.5
chance of success. If successful, a net profit of 5000 is expected and if not
successful a net
profit of 4000 is expected.
Present a decision tree. On the basis of this analysis determine the most
profitable course of
action. Comment on your findings.