Internet Trading Course - The Complete Course in Online Investment
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superreader94Internet Trading Course - The Complete Course in Online Investment
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Page i
THE INTERNET TRADING COURSE
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Page ii
In an increasingly competitive world, we believe its
quality of thinking that will give you the edge an idea
that opens new doors, a technique that solves a
problem, or an insight that simply makes sense of it all.
The more you know, the smarter and faster you can go.
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and finance to bring cutting-edge thinking and best
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To find out more about our business publications,
or tell us about the books you'd like to find, you can
visit us at www.business-minds.com
For other Pearson Education publications, visit
www.pearsoned-ema.com
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Page iii
FINANCIAL TIMES
THE INTERNET
TRADING COURSE
The complete course in online investment
Alpesh B. Patel
and Priyen Patel
London New York Toronto Sydney Tokyo Singapore Hong Kong Cape Town
New Delhi Madrid Paris Amsterdam Munich Milan Stockholm
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Page iv
PEARSON EDUCATION LIMITED
Head Office:
Edinburgh Gate
Harlow CM20 2JE
Tel: +44 (0)1279 623623
Fax: +44 (0)1279 431059
London Office:
128 Long Acre
London WC2E 9AN
Tel: +44 (0)20 7447 2000
Fax: +44 (0)20 7240 5771
Website: www.financialminds.com
First published in Great Britain in 2002
Tradermind Ltd 2002
The right of Alpesh B. Patel and Priyen Patel to be identified as authors of this work has been
asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
ISBN: 0273 65630 9
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A CIP catalogue record for this book can be obtained from the British Library
All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the Publishers or a
licence permitting restricted copying in the United Kingdom issued by the Copyright
Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 0LP. This book may not be
lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover
other than that in which it is published, without the prior consent of the Publishers.
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to
the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the authors nor the
publisher is engaged in rendering legal, investing, or any other professional service. If legal
advice or other expert assistance is required, the service of a competent professional person
should be sought.
The publisher and contributors make no representation, express or implied, with regard to
the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any responsibility
or liability for any errors or omissions that it may contain.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Designed by Designdeluxe, Bath
Typeset by Northern Phototypesetting Co. Ltd, Bolton
Printed and bound in Malaysia
The Publishers policy is to use paper manufactured from sustainable forests.
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Contents
About the authors
xi
Acknowledgements
xiii
Introduction
xv
Section 1 Getting online
Module 1 Essential hardware
What you will learn
The brains computers
Modem
Monitor
Printer
Internet service providers and access providers
Browsers
10
Websites
11
Section 2 Trading online
13
Module 2 Do you really want to trade online?
15
What you will learn
15
Module outline
15
Dont fall foul of misconceptions
16
The three golden rules
18
Practice makes perfect
19
Key terms
21
Mechanical or discretionary?
23
Your very own system: you just gotta have one
26
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Module 3 News how to get it and how to use it
What you will learn
31
Module outline
31
General news
33
Types of news
33
Case study: getting sector news
40
The firm
43
What are we looking for in company newsflow
47
Key terms
50
Search engines
50
Summary
51
Section 3 Choosing stocks technical analysis
55
Module 4 Tools and strategies
57
What you will learn
57
Module outline
57
TA: What? Why?
58
The tools and the strategies
59
Module 5 A little more sophisticated analysis
Momentum-based strategies
Module 6 The final instalment nearly there
vi
CONTENTS
31
71
71
79
Stochastics
79
MACD (or Mac-D if youre hungry)
81
A quick round-up of the tools and strategies
82
Technical sites and software
85
Section 4 Choosing stocks fundamentals
93
Module 7 Key ratios and statistics
95
What you will learn
95
Module outline
96
Getting started
96
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Price and volume
97
Growth rates
102
Valuation ratios
105
Module 8 Picking stocks based on cash is king
113
Cash flow and net income
113
Share-related items
119
Module 9 Picking stocks based on dividends, management
effectiveness and profitability
123
Dividend information
123
Management effectiveness
127
Profitability
130
Module 10 Picking stocks based on what the experts think
135
Recommendations
135
Performance
137
Institutional ownership
139
Insider trading
141
Earnings estimates
142
Module 11 Fundamentals web guides and tests
153
Web guides
153
Summary
159
Section 5 Making the trade
169
Module 12 Choosing brokers
171
What you will learn
171
Module outline
171
On or off?
172
Security: how safe is the process?
173
What to look for
174
The sites
179
Broker ranking tables
191
CONTENTS
vii
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More and more lists of brokers
202
Summary
205
Module 13 Opening an account
Getting going: opening an account and all that jazz
212
Types of orders
219
Using your account
222
Summary
226
227
What you will learn
227
Module outline
227
What works? Building a trading strategy
228
Journal keeping
235
Seven traders
236
How much risk can you tolerate?
238
How to manage risk
243
Ten-step trading analysis form for shares
245
Module 15 Monitoring
251
What you will learn
251
Module outline
251
Monitoring what?
251
Monitoring when?
252
How the internet helps
253
The sites
254
Summary
254
Module 16 Stay sharp educate thyself
CONTENTS
208
Placing your first trade
Module 14 Planning trades
viii
207
257
What you will learn
257
Module outline
257
Trawl the net: search engines
258
Market news and commentary
262
Recommendation pedlars: gurus and their newsletters
268
The sites
270
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Discussion forums
Chatrooms and boards
E-zines
Summary
Recommended reading
Glossary
Index
273
278
288
288
291
305
315
CONTENTS
ix
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Page x
To our mothers Sakuben and Ramilaben Patel
I am the ruling Queen, the amasser of treasures, full of wisdom, first of those worthy of worship.
In various places, divine powers have sent me. I enter many homes and take numerous forms.
Rig Veda
Women must be honoured and adorned by their fathers, brothers,
husbands and brothers-in-law, who desire their own welfare.
Where women are honoured, there the Gods are pleased. But where
they are not honoured, no sacred rite yields rewards.
Manu Dharma Shastras 3.5556
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About the authors
Priyen Patel
Priyens interest in trading was sparked as a schoolboy, being raised in the
same household as co-author Alpesh. His current interests are in short-term
derivatives and spread-betting, CFDs and stock futures trading, with an
emphasis on technical analysis.
A recent graduate of Oxford University, like Alpesh he read Philosophy,
Politics and Economics at St.Annes College.Unlike his co-author,Priyen won
prizes and did far better in his degree.
Alpesh B. Patel
LLB; MA (Oxon); AKC;
Visiting Fellow Corpus Christi College,
Oxford (20012); Barrister-at-Law
Trading
Described by Channel 4 as the UKs best known internet trader, Alpesh
started programming computers in BASIC at the age of 10 and buying stocks
18 years ago at the age of 12 (although he seems normal nowadays), moving
on from privatization stocks to penny shares. He left a legal career to trade
full-time.
Today he concentrates on US and UK stocks as well as futures and options
trading, making extensive use of the internet for research since he was a
Congressional Intern in 1994 and combining this with his own technical
analysis systems. On Channel 4s latest Show Me The Money series he was
number 1 of 45 expert stock pickers.
xi
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TV, radio and print
Alpesh writes the Diary of an Internet Trader for the weekend Financial
Times, also appearing on FT.com and weekly for Bloomberg TV in
Bloomberg Money on the Net.
Books
Alpesh is the author of Diary of an Internet Trader, Pocket Trading Online,
Net Trading, Trading Online and The Mind of a Trader (all published by
Pearson Education). His books have been translated into Spanish, German,
French,Chinese and Polish.Trading Online was the number one best-selling
investment book on Amazon UK, and reached number two on the overall
bestseller list.
Lectures
Alpesh regularly speaks on online trading, trading psychology and technical
analysis around the world and has in the next six months 15 speaking
engagements. He has spoken from Guatemala to Spain to Beijing.
xii
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
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Page xiii
Acknowledgements
nce again we owe a great debt to Pearson, knowing they will with
relentless effort produce an excellent book. From proofreading and
editing, to design, packaging, marketing and sales we thank all of you
involved in making a book that we the authors can be proud of.
Even this morning we received a couple of e-mails from members of
the Pearson team which brimmed with enthusiasm its a joy to be your
partners.
Alpesh B. Patel
Priyen Patel
xiii
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Introduction
Why you need to read this book
You need an online trading account as much as you need a bank account.
Without it youre not making full use of the money you have. But an online
trading account is not enough to ensure success.
You need to know what successful online traders and investors know.And
the best way you can learn it is through a coursebook which makes it
easier and more fun to learn too.
By the end of the book you will have a professional approach which you
can refer to each time you want to trade, and you will know which sites to
visit for precisely the type of information you want.
This book contains all the essentials for trading online, from an expert
who is used to explaining all the important issues to novices and advanced
traders alike.
Poor excuses people make for not trading online
Cant I just use a fund manager rather than trade online?
Why do you need to manage your own money when you can just invest in a
fund and have a fund manager do all the work for you? Well, there is ample
data to show that giving your money to the so-called professionals does not
lead to great returns.
Why do I need to worry about trading online if I am just going to buy
and hold for the long term?
The reason so many people trade online is precisely because buy and hold
takes so long to give you any returns at all. Just see Figs I.1I.3.
xv
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FIGURE I.1
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Page xvi
S&P composite 190624
12
10
8
6
After 18 years, the
Roaring 20s bull market
finally broke through the
1906 peak
4
2
0
9/06
FIGURE I.2
6/08
3/10
12/11
9/13
6/15
3/17
12/18
9/20
6/22
3/24
S&P composite 192954
35
30
Stocks take 25 years to
return to 1929 peak
25
20
15
10
5
0
8/29
10/31
12/33
2/36
4/38
6/40
8/42
10/44
12/46
2/49
4/51
6/53
Figures I.4I.6 make the point that if you are thinking of being a long-term
investor, you really need to be very long term because in the short term, portfolio returns are all over the place only over decades do they rise consistently (portfolio numbers refer to differing levels of risk from 10 the lowest
to 90 the greatest).
And how are you going to buy and hold a stock whose share price looks
like Fig I.7?
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INTRODUCTION
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FIGURE I.3
Page xvii
S&P composite 196680
140
120
100
80
60
This 14-year bear market includes the
crash of 197374
40
20
1/66
10/67
7/69
4/71
1/73
10/74
7/76
4/78
1/80
Adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 did not
return to its 1966 peak until 1991
FIGURE I.4
Annual returns over 27 years
1975
45
1985
1991
1995
30
Annual Return (%)
new prelims
1999
15
15
1990
1974
30
1973
1976
Portfolio 10
1979
1982
Portfolio 30
1985
Portfolio 50
1988
1991
Portfolio 70
1994
1997
Portfolio 90
INTRODUCTION
xvii
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FIGURE I.5
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Page xviii
Every 3-year returns over 27 years
110
8587
100
7679
90
9193
80
Return (%)
70
60
50
40
30
8890
20
10
0
7375
10
7375
7679
Portfolio 10
FIGURE I.6
7981
8284
Portfolio 30
8587
8890
Portfolio 50
9193
9496
Portfolio 70
9799
Portfolio 90
Every 9-year returns over 27 years
450
19821990
400
350
19911999
Return (%)
300
250
19731981
200
150
100
50
0
19821990
19731981
Portfolio 10
xviii
INTRODUCTION
Portfolio 30
Portfolio 50
19911999
Portfolio 70
Portfolio 90
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FIGURE I.7
Page xix
How you can buy and hold this
Marconi
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
50
0
50
Aug
FIGURE I.8
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2001 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Distribution of daily S&P 500 returns 19982000
300
250
# Days
200
150
100
50
0
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
variation from mean
INTRODUCTION
xix
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Page xx
S&P 500 index distribution of monthly returns 75.5 years, 906 months, 1 Jan 1926 to
30 June 2001
FIGURE I.9
100
90
80
# of Months
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
43.00 44.00
41.00 42.00
39.00 40.00
37.00 38.00
35.00 36.00
33.00 34.00
31.00 32.00
29.00 30.00
27.00 28.00
25.00 26.00
23.00 24.00
21.00 22.00
19.00 20.00
17.00 18.00
15.00 16.00
13.00 14.00
11.00 12.00
7.00 8.00
9.00 10.00
5.00 6.00
3.00 4.00
1.00 2.00
1.00 0.00
3.00 2.00
5.00 4.00
9.00 8.00
7.00 6.00
11.00 10.00
13.00 12.00
15.00 14.00
17.00 16.00
19.00 18.00
21.00 20.00
23.00 22.00
25.00 24.00
27.00 26.00
29.00 28.00
31.00 30.00
Monthly % change
The other reason we trade online is because we are often trying to pick
the big return days, of which there are a few, and avoid the loss-making days,
of which there are many, as Figs I.8 and I.9 show.
Surely I dont need to trade online if I am not planning my own
research and just looking to follow the analysts?
Well, before you think the easy way to invest is just to follow analyst recommendations, take a look at Fig I.10.
Looking back all the way to 1997, for instance, 16 of the 19 largest US brokerages issued money-losing stock advice, according to investment research
firm Investars.com see Figs I.1113.
Unfortunately, even when the market keeps falling, you dont get sell recommendations. So in a bear market, you cant rely on them youre on your
own.Therefore youd better know how to research your trades online.
xx
INTRODUCTION
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Page xxi
Morgan Stanleys early call helped it nab the best Amazon return
FIGURE I.10
Timing of selected investment bank
recommendations for Amazon.com
$120
Top Two Banks
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Deutsche Banc (DB)
$100
$80
Amazon Share Price
$20
2/2 MS reiterates outperform
JP reiterates buy
MDI upgrades to strong buy
12/8 JP
issues buy
Bottom Two Banks
Return
J.P. Morgan (JP)
82.29%
McDonald Invest (MDI) 52.42%
$60
$40
12/13 MDI
issues buy
Return
+400.21%
+121.39%
3/13 DB reiterates
market perform
1/5 DB
downgrades
to market
perform
10/22 DB
issues market
outperform
9/18 MS issues
outperform
1/25 JP
reiterates buy
1997
4/20 DB
upgrades
to buy
9/3 JP
reiterates buy
1998
12/8 MS
reiterates
outperform
3/16 MDI
reiterates
strong buy
1999
9/19 JP
reiterates buy
2000
2001
Source: Industry Standard
FIGURE I.11
Only three banks achieve a positive return overall
Hypothetical investment return
based on analyst recommendations
All Stocks
Top 5
Investment Bank or Research Firm
1
2
3
4
5
Credit Suisse First Boston
A.G. Edwards
Salomon Smith Barney
Merrill Lynch
Morgan Stanley
Technology Hardware Stocks
Stocks Rated
Return
Top 5
Investment Bank or Research Firm
1.558
600
1.348
1.491
1.184
+6.9%
+4.4%
+0.9%
1.5%
2.7%
1
2
3
4
5
Merrill Lynch
Bear Stearns
A.G.Edwards
Salomon Smith Barney
Goldman Sachs
633
617
627
804
894
48.3%
22.7%
21.5%
14.7%
14.7%
Robertson Stephens
USB Piper Jaffray
Cain Rauscher
CBC World Markets
Deutsche Bank
Return
143
100
55
149
11
13.59%
18.3%
18.7%
18.8%
18.3%
153
96
90
82
85
54.9%
54.4%
51.4%
50.9%
47.1%
Bottom 5
Bottom 5
1
2
3
4
5
Stocks Rated
1
2
3
4
5
Robertson Stephens
Cain Rauscher
Deutsche Banc
USB Piper Jaffray
USB PaineWebber
Source: Industry Standard
INTRODUCTION
xxi
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FIGURE I.12
Page xxii
Good times or bad, sells are few
100%
Strong buy
Buy
80%
38.5%
Hold
38.6%
Percent of Ratings
Underperform
or sell
60%
40%
33.8%
35.4%
27.0%
25.3%
20%
0.7%
0.7%
March 2000
May 2001
Based on an analysis of total outstanding analyst recommendations on March 24 2000 and May 4 2001
Source: Multex Investor June 2001
And positive ratings keep coming
5000
1,500
4000
1,200
3000
900
2000
600
1000
300
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
2000
Source: Multex Investor
xxii
INTRODUCTION
Sept
Nov
Jan
Mar
2001
May
Number of Recommendations
Nasdaq Index
FIGURE I.13
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Page xxiii
Why you need to trade online
Perhaps it is because I placed my first trade at the age of 12 to try to earn
enough money to avoid a paper round, or perhaps because I could safely be
described as an internet geek (freek could be equally applicable) that I am
so fanatical about online trading.
It is this fanaticism that makes me wonder why even more people do not
want to trade online. I dont mean widows and orphans, but people who
already have share brokerage accounts with traditional brokers. Perhaps I
can explode some concerns they and even those who do trade online may
have.
Consider too the important calculations any sensible investor needs to do
before investing. Do you know how to calculate the effect on your portfolio
of a 10 per cent market shock? Do you even know why you need to know
this? What if I told you the answer is easy to calculate in seconds online but
using pen and paper would take months.And do you know what the likely
reaction of your portfolio will be six months later? The answer is important
because otherwise the next time the market dumps 10 per cent how else do
you know to sell or hold on (see Fig I.14)? Not only does this book tell you
where to look, it tells you why.
Yet another reason (if you need one) to trade online is to use wonderfully
easy tools like these to show you exactly whats moving and where you may
want to put your money (Figures I.15, I.16, I.17).
INTRODUCTION
xxiii
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FIGURE I.14
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Page xxiv
How world events impact the market
First trading session response
to event
Date
Event
DJIA
Close
Previous
Day
DJIA
Close
DJIA
Change
DJIA %
Change
One
Month
Change
Six
Months
Change
One
Year
Change
1. 1/17/91
US launches
bombing attack
on Iraq
2,509
2,624
114.6
4.6%
11.8%
15.0%
24.5%
2. 8/2/90
Iraq invades
Kuwait
2,899
2,865
34.7
1.2%
8.8%
3.2%
5.0%
3. 3/30/81
President Reagan
shot
995
992
2.6
0.3%
0.6%
14.3%
16.9%
4. 8/9/74
President Nixon
resigns
785
777
7.6
0.97%
14.7%
8.9%
6.0%
5. 11/22/63 President
Kennedy
assassinated
733
711
21.2
2.9%
6.6%
15.4%
25.0%
6. 10/22/62 Cuban Missile
Crisis
569
558
10.5
1.9%
15.6%
27.4%
34.0%
7. 9/26/55
President
Eisenhower has
heart attack
487
456
31.9
-6.5%
0.04%
12.5%
5.7%
8. 6/25/50
North Korea
invades South
Korea
224
214
10.4
4.7%
4.5%
7.4%
15.1%
9. 12/7/41
Japan attacks
Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii
117
113
4.1
3.5%
0.9%
6.2%
2.9%
Source: dowjones.com Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
xxiv
Subsequent market
behaviour
INTRODUCTION
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FIGURE I.15
2:38 pm
Page xxv
Investment wonders of the web
Key
Name
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Latest
Last
update
Trend
Change since Change over
last close
1 month
209.35
14:10 25/10/01
8.80 4.03%
+25.77%
204.26
14:10 25/10/01
4.62 2.21%
+23.71%
159.47
14:11 25/10/01
1.74 1.08%
+21.07%
136.74
14:13 25/10/01
1.98 1.43%
+18.92%
143.46
14:12 25/10/01
1.49 1.03%
+14.67%
215.99
14:14 25/10/01
3.82 1.74%
+14.09%
200.82
14:13 25/10/01
3.46 1.69%
+4.91%
Another easy stockpicking tool do you know how to use it?
Percentage Change in Sector Values over 3 Months
Packaging
+21.8%
Transport
24.9%
Mining
+4.3%
Insurance
19.6%
Tobacco
+3.8%
Elec. & Electrical Eqp
19.5%
Health
+3.5%
Engineering & Mach
18.5%
Telecom Services
+3.0%
Leis.Entertain & Hot.
14.5%
Automobiles
+2.7%
IT Hardware
14.1%
Banks
+2.2%
Aerospace & Defence
13.6%
INTRODUCTION
xxv
new prelims
22/3/02
FIGURE I.17
2:38 pm
Page xxvi
Well point you to great tools like these
Percentage Change in Price over 3 Months
FTSE Packaging
Comparison Chart
Percentage Change
2,962
2,862
Value
2,762
2,662
2,562
20%
10%
0%
10%
2,462
25 Jul 15 Aug 05 Sep 26 Sep 17 Oct
2,362
FTSE Packaging
25 Jul 15 Aug 05 Sep 26 Sep 17 Oct
FTSE All Share
British Polythene Industries PLC
+35.6%
API Group PLC
26.6%
Rexam PLC
+22.0%
Ardagh PLC
16.2%
Macfarlane Group PLC
+16.7%
C.A. Coutts Holdings PLC
14.6%
Jarvis Porter Group PLC
+10.8%
Coral Products PLC
12.2%
RPC Group PLC
+10.3%
International Greetings PLC
6.1%
Send Group PLC
6.0%
IRE-TEX Group PLC
2.0%
Smurfit (Jefferson) Group PLC
1.4%
You are definitely not alone
For those worried that such an activity may be a little risky for its frontiertypenature,you are definitely not going to one of a few online traders trying
out untested technology (see Table I.1).
According to IDC,there were 6.4 million online broker accounts in the US
alone as far back as the end of 1998 and there will be 24.7 million by the end
of 2002.
xxvi
INTRODUCTION
new prelims
22/3/02
2:38 pm
TA B L E I . 1
Page xxvii
Online trading forecast
Commission Revenues
Accounts
Individual Investors
Percent of Total Investors
1998
2002
$1.3 billion
6.4 million
5.6 million
8%
$5.3 billion
24.7 million
22.7 million
30%
In Europe,online trading is going to have an exponential increase.According to JP Morgan, by 2002 there will be 8 million people trading online in
Europe (Table I.2).The message must be that there is going to be a mad rush,
so join in or be left out.
TA B L E I . 2
Online trading accounts in Europe
1997
1999
2002
Under 100,000
900,000
Over 8 million
I dont do that kind of thing
Of course, online trading is not for everyone. But a common misconception
is that you have to trade short term to justify opening an online account.
Wrong! Even if you buy shares only once a year, you could save in commission charges.And even when the markets are falling, the number of online
trading accounts increases just see Fig I.18 for the UK
market.
You need not be put off from opening an online account
A common
by the false belief that you should shift your entire holdings
misconception is that
to your online account. In the UK and US it appears most
you have to trade short
online traders are being quite shrewd and trading online
with a small amount of the overall capital they have
term to justify opening
devoted to trading and investing (see Fig I.19).
an online account.
INTRODUCTION
xxvii
22/3/02
FIGURE I.18
2:38 pm
Page xxviii
Internet investors in the UK
Internet investors
Internet investors
Trades per investor
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Q3 99
Q4 99
Q1 00
Q2 00
Q3 00
Q4 00
Q1 01
Q2 01
Q3 01
In the US, according to one recent survey, most people trade online with
less than $10,000 in their accounts. In the UK, the Association of Private
Client Investment Managers and Stockbrokers findings appear in Fig I.20.
Truly global
Online trading is truly global.You can buy Sony and China Telecom stock in
dollars as easily as Coca-Cola and IBM.In September and October 2001 I travelled to Miami,London,Beijing,Kuala Lumpur and Puerto Rico everywhere
I have been able to trade and everywhere I have met online traders.
If you have a bank account, you should have an online
trading account.
Online trading is truly
global. You can buy
Sony and China
Telecom stock in dollars
as easily as Coca-Cola
and IBM.
xxviii
INTRODUCTION
But this is not just about online trading
Online trading is like offline trading in many respects.
Thats why this book takes a holistic view and teaches you
the skill all traders have to avoid common trading pitfalls.
See Fig I.21 which illustrates a major market failing.
Quarterly trades per investor
new prelims
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2:38 pm
Page xxix
Start small
FIGURE I.19
What size is your
average trade?
16.8%
12.0%
4.5%
1.9%
29.7%
35.1%
Less than $5000
$5,000 to$9,999
$10,000 to $19,999
$20,000 to$49,999
$50,000 to $99,999
$100,000 or more
How people trade in the UK, according to the Association of Private Client Investment
Managers and Stockbrokers
FIGURE I.20
Internet trade size ()
Non-internet trade size () (execution only)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
01
3
01
Q
01
Q
00
Q
00
3
00
Q
00
1
99
Q
99
Q
99
2
99
Q
98
4
98
Q
98
Q
2
Q
98
0
Q
Average bargain size
new prelims
INTRODUCTION
xxix
new prelims
22/3/02
FIGURE I.21
2:38 pm
Page xxx
A major market failing
In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.
Robert Arnott
Active Asset Allocation
greed
indifference
denial
enthusiasm
confidence
BUY
concern
LOSS
caution
fear
SELL
doubt &
suspicion
panic
despair
We trust youll find the book both an enjoyable read and a valuable source
of revenue.
Alpesh B. Patel
Priyen Patel
xxx
INTRODUCTION
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SECTION
Getting online
MODULE 1
ESSENTIAL HARDWARE
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MODULE
Essential hardware
ou cant trade online unless you are online.Besides,online trading can
at times be a frustrating venture youll need something to kick, and
thats where hardware comes in.
Before you can connect to the internet we need to discuss some basic
hardware requirements.You could, of course, go for higher specs, depending
on how much performance you require the skys the limit. However, there
are certain essentials that we should focus on in this module.
What you will learn
Having worked through this module you will understand the types of hardware needed to trade online.These will include the following:
computers
modems
monitors
internet service providers (ISPs)
printers
browsers.
Most people have these already, but this chapter will be useful for those
thinking of upgrading or who want to know if they have the right equipment.
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Warning! Warning!
Buying computer hardware can be a thorough and sometimes very joyful
way of burning money. But lets not get carried away. It is not necessary
to buy the latest PC. It will go out of date and you will be paying a premium. Instead, buy a cheaper PC and upgrade later.
The brains computers
PC or Mac?
You must decide which type of personal computer suits your trading needs.
The two giants are the PC and the Apple Mac.You may have strong views on
this already. Sure, it sounds like the VHS/Betamax showdown of folklore.
People will tell you ones better than the other; that its a case of what you
get used to; even that Mac, as urban myth has it of Betamax, is the superior
machine, unjustly suppressed by big corporate interests.Whatever.
The critical issue for the online trader is compatibility.Windows operates
on the PC and far more software is written for PC users. Outside the US the
PC is even more dominant than the Mac. For these reasons I would suggest
you go for the PC most trading software is not Mac-compatible.
The processor
The central processing unit (CPU) is one of the most important factors to
consider when buying a computer. It will determine in part the speed at
which programs operate and therefore how quickly you can work.
The safest option among the plethora of processors is Intels Pentium
range. Pentium IV are now entry level and well able to handle multiple
online trading tasks.
The speed of a processor is measured by its clock speed. Obviously, you
should weigh price against performance.
The critical issue for the
online trader is
compatibility.
SECTION 1
GETTING ONLINE
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A guide for minimum requirements
Fortunately, for trading, even a humble 266 MHz Pentium
processor is sufficient
Most entry level PCs have fast enough processing speeds to undertake all
trading tasks. Speed becomes a problem only if you have many applications open simultaneously and are also playing Doom while trading.
64 MB RAM (random access memory)
is minimum requirement
RAM is the temporary memory in which your computer runs programs, a
little like room to play. The more room the computer has, the quicker it can
get things done. However, 256 MB is more than enough. If you want you
can buy more, but you do not strictly need it for your trading.
3 GB hard drive or larger is best
The hard drive is where all the programs and other things you save are
stored. Storage space is useful as over the years we all tend to collect clutter, such as bric-a-brac, spouses, etc. A 3 GB drive would probably last
most traders until they decide to upgrade their computers (and their
spouses).
Windows 2000 operating system
is recommended
When it comes to programming trading software, most programmers use
the latest version of Windows. The problem with Windows 98 is that it
crashes more often than a crash-test dummy. Windows 2000 is based on
the industry standard, hard as a rock Windows NT, which is far more difficult to crash. XP also meets this task
CD drive useful, x16 or faster
Most programs and much data are provided on compact disks. A 16speed one is more than adequate, although many computers now come
with nothing slower than a 32-speed. DVD players are not needed as yet.
What you have learned
MODULE 1
Your choice of computer hardware will depend on your preferences for performance and therefore you must ask yourself how committed you are to trading online and what other uses you may have for your computer.
ESSENTIAL HARDWARE
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Page 6
Nevertheless, a PC with the Pentium IV processor, 128MB RAM and 3GB
hard drive are not too demanding specs. Windows 2000 and a 16-speed CD
drive are highly recommended. Remember that it is better to be conservative
with such purchases and to then upgrade as the need arises.
Modem
Internal or external makes little difference
It does not matter from a trading point of view whether the modem is some
electronic wizardry inside the computer or a separate attachment outside it.
The latter option may be better if you are not keen on opening up the computer. 56k external modems cost around $4060.
At least a 56k modem
You do not want to be waiting all day to receive trading news and information.The speed of your modem is important to ensure you can have an outside life, too.Therefore at least a 56k modem is recommended.
Consider ISDN or ADSL/cable broadband
These offer digital connection that is faster than a normal modem.They are
lightning fast, but can be expensive. However, if you can afford them or get
them, they are worth considering.
Cable
About 25 times faster than a dial-up modem,cable uses the standard cable TV
connection.The only problem is that its a shared line, so the more people
online,the slower the connection.This is just like dial-up modems today,only
faster. Despite this, it still looks like being the best home option.Availability
is limited at present. Check with your local cable provider.
ADSL
You do not want to be
waiting all day to
receive trading news
and information.
SECTION 1
GETTING ONLINE
Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL, sometimes
called DSL) is a service provided by some local phone companies. ADSL transmits compressed digital data down part
of your standard phone line.The advantage over a modem
is that you can still make and receive calls on your phone
while being online. Okay, so get a second line you might
say.True, but ADSL is also impressive, being similar to cable
(i.e. 25 times the speed of a modem).
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ISDN
You may well have heard of the Integrated Service Digital Network (ISDN).
Its not as advanced as ADSL but it can be up to twice as fast as a 56.6k
modem. Consider it if you can afford the extra cost and cannot get ADSL or
cable.
T-1 lines
What most businesses have. Pretty much instantaneous connections with
high-capacity data lines.
T-3 lines
Very expensive i.e.what very big businesses have.Currently unavailable for
home use but, as ever, it must surely be only a matter of time
Satellite
Currently about seven times the speed of a 56.6k modem. The problem is
that youll need both a dish to receive data and a satellite service provider
by phone line in order to send e-mail. Only really worth considering if you
have no cable or local digital services such as ADSL or ISDN.
Monitor
17 preferred twin flat panels even better
Beyond 15, monitors start getting very pricey. Less than 15 and you start
needing a magnifying glass.With 17 screens becoming standard, you could
even go to 19.
I have two flat panel monitors which not only save on desk space but also
increase productivity since I can monitor share prices on one screen and
research on the other. Speak to your computer vendor about these. Dell is
particularly good in my experience, (www.dell.com). You cant, of course,
just buy a separate monitor and plonk it on.You need a graphics card and
preferably 64 or 128Mb RAM.
Anti-glare and anti-radiation filter essential
The radiation emitted from the trading screen that is on all
day may cause you to grow a second head, but there is no
evidence that two brains would improve your trading performance.So buy a filter,and keep your uni-head good looks.
(Most modern flat panels would not require such filters.)
There is no evidence
that two brains would
improve your trading
performance.
MODULE 1
ESSENTIAL HARDWARE
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Page 8
Printer
Laser printer
These printers may be the most expensive but they have dropped dramatically in price and are best when it comes to printing out all those trading
charts and for reading text.
Inkjet minimum requirement
If the purse strings are tight, an inkjet is likely to be adequate for printing
charts and text.
What you have learned
Again, you can go to town when it comes to throwing money at modems. 56k
is a requirement for the tasks demanded for online trading. Anything faster than
56k will require some introspection on your part do you really need the performance given the price, are you going to use the internet for other things, etc.,
etc.?
A 17 monitor with an anti-radiation filter is preferred.
When it comes to printers, an inkjet is a minimum requirement and a laser jet
is best for intricate graphs.
Internet service providers
and access providers
Choosing an internet service provider
Asking an online trader what ISP stands for is a bit like asking a journalist
what BBC means. But although many people will have heard of ISPs, not
everyone will know what an ISP is and, more importantly, what it does.An
internet service provider provides access to the web from a PC using your
modem (see above).An internet access provider (IAP) just provides dial-up
while an ISP also provides access to exclusive online content, e.g.AOL.
Well-known ISPs are AOL (AmericaOnLine), Freeserve, Microsoft Network,
Virgin and BTclick.Theyre a bit like your phone company but instead of providing you with a line they give you an entrance into the web a doorway, if
you like. The major ISPs offer a vast range of information and web links to
their subscribers,including search tools or enginesas theyre usually known.
SECTION 1
GETTING ONLINE
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Page 9
HOT TIP
Dont worry about finding an ISP the biggest, like AOL, will find you. If
youve just bought a new PC, youll probably find two or three ISPs readyloaded onto your hard drive. ISPs differ in what they offer and how much
they charge. If you go for the ADSL or ISDN option outlined above, you will
be given an ISP connection automatically.
If you dont have your desired ISP on your PC already, youll have to get
hold of their dial-up software.This is mostly free usually with PC magazine
CD giveaways or as a free mailing. Once youve found the software, follow
the instructions that come with it.Alternatively, you can sign up to another
ISP if youre already online, but this gets a little chicken and egg, so Im
assuming youre not already online. Once youve downloaded the software
and signed up with the ISP, youre ready to go online or surf as your dad
no doubt insists on calling it.
Remember
1 Oversubscription: try out the ISP before you subscribe. If its slow it may
be because there are too many subscribers for the ISPs to handle. This
is particularly so at peak times such as midday and early evening. Try out
the service at different times of the day.
2 Do they allow you to have more than one member per account? You
may find this useful for family use.
3 If you use a laptop and travel, how accessible globally is the ISP?
An unlimited online time plan is required
ISPs and internet access providers (IAPs) usually have different charging
plans, many charging by the number of hours spent using their services.
Since we traders may spend a lot of time online, the cheapest pricing
option is almost always the unlimited time plan, since there is only a
monthly flat fee for access.
HOT TIP
Take a free trial.
Try before you buy is the advice here. Almost all ISPs and IAPs permit a onemonth free trial, and it is best to use this to test their reliability.
MODULE 1
ESSENTIAL HARDWARE
new module 1
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Page 10
Make sure you
regularly check for
upgrades and consider
having the add-ons
when you download
the software.
Browsers
Internet Explorer or Netscape Navigator
If you are looking for a browser then you want the most
sophisticated one and one catered for by almost all internet
sites. So Internet Explorer and Netscape Navigator are
highly recommended. They are available free from cover
CDs of most internet magazines.
Make sure you regularly check for upgrades and consider
having the add-ons when you download the software. All
those bells and whistles are sometimes used by trading sites
(www.microsoft.com; www.netscape.com).
Bookmarks
It is essential to familiarize yourself with Bookmarks in Netscape Navigator
or Favourites in Internet Explorer for the purposes of managing information.
PC TV
If you are trading from home, you could have a TV playing in a small section
of your monitor, such as CNBC or Bloomberg, to keep you up to date with
the markets.Not essential,but I like it.Also great for watching The Simpsons
while you write books only kidding: you, the reader, have my undivided
attenti
Exercises
1 List the minimum hardware requirements you will need to trade online. (See
the summary below for suggested answers.)
2 Find a search engine site on the net and find out what the price and
When buying
hardware keep in
mind minimum
requirements, and
remember that you can
upgrade.
10
SECTION 1
GETTING ONLINE
product range is for the hardware minimum requirements
needed to trade online. (See the website section below for
help.)
Summary what you have learned
When buying hardware keep in mind minimum requirements,
and remember that you can upgrade. Here are some numbers:
Pentium IV processor, 128 MB RAM, 3GB hard drive, Windows
2000, 56k modem, 17 monitor, inkjet printer.
new module 1
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2:39 pm
Page 11
Go for ISPs with an unlimited time plan, and as many free trials as it takes to
find one that suits you. Get the latest version of Explorer or Netscape. Specs a
bit better than the minimum will stand you in good stead, but do remain conservative.
Most entry-level PCs will accommodate all the aspects mentioned here and
you will not have much to worry about. People with older systems may need to
upgrade, however.
Websites
Microsoft
Netscape
www.microsoft.com
www.netscape.com
Listed below are some manufacturer websites. However, the best way to find
pricing and specs info on computer hardware is to use a search engine (e.g.
www.yahoo.com, www.lycos.com, www.google.com, www.ask.com, www.altavista.com).
Type in something like computers,modems,desktop etc.
Apple
Compaq
Dell
Hewlett-Packard
IBM
NEC
Sony
Toshiba
www.apple.com
www.compaq.com
www.dell.com
www.hp.com
www.ibm.com
www.nec-computers.com
www.sony.com
www.toshiba.jp
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MODULE 1
ESSENTIAL HARDWARE
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SECTION
Trading online
MODULE 2
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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Do you really want
to trade online?
MODULE
nline trading is a skill. And as with all skills, it must be developed.
Developing competence is hard. But it is also rewarding.
What you will learn
Having worked through this module you will:
understand what online trading involves. Online trading is often portrayed
as a simple way of making money it is not;
appreciate the pitfalls. The market is quite fickle what the market may
give the market can take away;
understand the three golden rules;
know what basic ideas you should bear in mind when trading and creating
a trading system.
Module outline
I will help you to achieve the broad objectives bulleted above by:
first, examining some presumptions about online trading;
second, outlining the three golden rules of online trading;
third, explicating a few key practices that every online trader should carrry
out;
fourth, looking at types of trading systems.
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Dont fall foul of misconceptions
If you are looking to
make money every
day, you will have to
trade every day.
Everyone seems to have some preconceptions about what
online trading involves.These claims are often misguided or
over-simplified.I shall pose the following assertions and then
try to explain to you how they are flawed.When reading the
assertions,try to think of a retort before reading my opinion.
I shall present the claims again at the end of the module
in the form of self-assessment questions.By then,having worked through the
golden rules and the key practices sections, you should be able to breeze
through the self-assessment.
The preconceptions
Some replies
1 Online trading is the
1. way the few who dare
1. make a fortune.
a
a.
a.
a.
There is no more to online trading than there is to buying
books from Amazon. The mechanics are relatively easy
that is why so many people are starting to get involved.
However, knowing what to buy and when, and then when
to sell, is where the skill lies. Whether you trade online or
not you will have to master the skills of investment. These lie
in the right direction and practice: I hope to give you the
former, while the latter is the fun part I have left to you.
2 Online trading allows
b While with online trading you can trade relatively short term
1. rapid short-term gains. b. because orders are transmitted electronically, online brokers
are not intended to be used as a substitute to your being a
floor trader. Online brokers confirm your orders as quickly as
they can, but this is nowhere near quick enough for day
trading, where you are looking to buy and sell in a few
seconds. By the time you get the price, place an order, get
confirmation, review the new price, place a new order, get a
confirmation, the market will have moved on. Day trading
and online trading are very different.
3 There is so much free
1. information about
1. stocks on the internet
1. that you have an
1. advantage over
1. everyone else in
1. making profitable
1. trades.
16
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TRADING ONLINE
c There is a lot of information, but information without an
c. understanding of how to use it is useless and even
c. detrimental. I will show you what I consider to be the best
c. places to get information, but that is just the starting point.
c. We must then know what to do with it to make money.
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4 The costs you save in
1. placing an order
1. online make it far
1. easier to come out
1. ahead at the end of
1. the year.
d Discount online brokers do offer very low brokerage rates,
d. saving you a lot of money compared with placing trades with
d. a full-fee broker. But you still need to be good at picking
d. stocks.
5 Online trading offers
1. an instant daily incom
1. from a small capital
1. start-up.
e The more money you want to make, the more capital you
need. If you are looking to make money every day, you will
have to trade every day. That will be expensive in
commissions, let alone time, and soon you may find yourself
without any trading capital. Thats why most short-term
traders look to place two trades a week instead.
6 You can give up your
f If you want to trade for a living you will have to understand
1. day job and work from
what youre giving up. But also to trade you will need capital
1. home.
and experience. Without capital you will not earn enough.
Without experience you will make mistakes that the pressure
to perform intensifies.
7 You can make profits
1. off the back of more
1. knowledgeable
1. traders postings on
1. chat sites and bulletin
1. boards.
g The best places for research are reputable sources of
company information such as Hoover (US) or Hemmington
Scott (UK). Chat rooms are not places to form opinions about
stocks because you are not guaranteed advice from those
with good enough experience this is obviously dangerous
to your pocket.
Notes
MODULE 2
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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The three golden rules
One of the mysteries of human conduct is why adult men and women are
ready to sign documents which they do not read, at the behest of salesmen
they do not know, binding them to pay for articles they do not want, with
money which they do not have.
GERALD HURST
The above mysteries will be very costly in the stock market, where uncertainty is naturally all-pervasive and the stakes are high (your capital). No
matter how much you are sure of your trading system, no matter how much
research you do, no matter how successful you have been, you are never
100% certain.
Given the intense uncertainty, ignorance is very costly and the benefits of
gaining knowledge very great.You should take this into consideration when
you start putting your hard-earned cash on (the) line. Do not forget that you
must:
know what you are buying research the stock using various tools
fundamentals and technicals (see later);
know the ground rules for all investors under which you buy and sell a
stock or bond;
know the level of risk you are undertaking. Any analysis of returns must be
taken with serious analysis of risk. Risk and return are part of the same
whole.
While the manner in which orders are executed may be changing, the timehonoured principles of evaluating a stock have not.
A R T H U R L E V I T T, C H A I R M A N S E C
The key is evaluation
Merely gaining information is grossly insufficient and not particularly
demanding. What is required of you is evaluating information for significance, knowing how to employ it, and when. You do not need to know
every piece of information about a stock and the market, but you have to
analyze what the important information is and why it is significant. If you
can think critically and independently of city analysts, your trading will
become sharper and more enjoyable. We will come to the tools youll
need in later modules.
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Practice makes perfect
There are critical practices online traders should undertake
to avoid the problems of trading on the internet.
Question, question, question
The more often you
trade, the more
information you will
receive.
Questioning will provoke independent thought. Question
incessantly. Your most important device is the question:
Why? Like a child, pose it on all occasions.Always question advice and try
to find independent advice. If you hear someone talking up a stock, ask yourself why they are doing that, then find out for yourself.
Keep accounts
The more often you trade, the more information you will receive.You must
keep it in a safe place. I recommend keeping a file on a spreadsheet which
provides a running list of purchases, sales, profits, losses, commissions paid.
That way you know how much you are paying and what kind of profits or
losses you are making.
Plan B
Contingency plans are integral. You must always be aware of your options
before placing a trade if you cannot gain access to your account online. A
good major reputable broker will always be able to offer telephone back-up
in case of a technology failure.There is no point planning to go online to find
the appropriate information if it is not available because the site is down.
Sleep at night get confirmation
If you cancel an online trade make sure you get confirmation of the cancellation, rather than assuming it has been cancelled. Otherwise, you may place other orders in the erroneous belief
that your previous trade was cancelled.
Take care with your clicking ways
The trouble with the internet is that procedure is so simple
click, click and then click some more. You could have
bought anything twice. Be careful not to click away like
crazy on the place order button just because you do not
get instantaneous feedback. Otherwise, two things will
happen: youll be sinking into the red and youll be
afflicted by repetitive strain injury.
MODULE 2
The trouble with the
internet is that
procedure is so simple
click, click and then
click some more. You
could have bought
anything twice.
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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What you have learned
Online trading deserves our respect or it will have our money.
There is more to it than placing an order. It is a skill.
Do your homework get a lot of quality info and think about it
independently of other opinions.
Beware of procedure and be disciplined enough to engage in key procedure
from the start.
Online trading is not electronic day trading.
Know what you are giving up as you expand your commitment to online
trading.
Fruitful and enjoyable trading demands clear and critical thinking about
the raw information. Information is easy to obtain; evaluation is the hard
part.
Remember the three golden rules: know what you are buying/selling,
know the ground rules, have a clear understanding of the risk you are
undertaking and your preferences.
Question trading opinion using the data, keep accounts, prepare for
contingency, get confirmation, do not over-trade simply because the
procedure is easy. Do not trade on a whim.
Notes
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Key terms
Day trading requires
Trading online: this is when you trade using an internet
very fast responses to
broker. Like any other product on the Internet, it is easier,
market conditions
faster and often cheaper.
Electronic day trading: this is intra-day trading. That
because the time frame
means you open and close a trading position on the same
is so short.
day to make a profit from your trading. Day trading requires
very fast responses to market conditions because the time
frame is so short.You cannot do this online with an internet
broker, it is not quick enough. You will need a special electronic account.
Moreover, you will have to have a lot of expertise not for the beginner.
Self-assessment test
Unlike other self-assessment tests on this course, this one will not be marked.
The point of it is for you to think for yourself about online trading as an important and serious skill.
1 Does online trading allow rapid trades and short-term gains?
2 What is necessary if you want to trade for a living?
3 Why is it not easy to make money hand-over-fist by online trading given the
amount of information and opinion, and the low commission charges?
4 Why is risk analysis important?
5 Try to think of the important practices that should be imbedded in your mind
when you are trading.
Some suggested answers
1 Online brokers confirm your orders as quickly as they can but this is
nowhere near quick enough for day trading, where you are looking to buy
and sell in a few seconds. By the time you get the price, place an order, get
confirmation, review the new price, place a new order, get a confirmation,
the market will have moved on. Day trading and online
trading are very different. Online trading is flexible, and
applicable to a large range of possible trading time frames
Without experience
(between the opening and closing of a trade) anything
from maybe a couple of weeks to four years.
you will make mistakes
2 If you want to trade for a living you will have to
understand what youre giving up. But also to trade you
will need capital and experience. Without capital you will
MODULE 2
that the pressure to
perform intensifies.
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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not earn enough. Without experience you will make mistakes that the
pressure to perform intensifies.
3 It is not easy to make money because uncertainty is inherent in any
investment. Some part of stock market volatility is wholly unpredictable.
That part of share price movement that can be predicted requires you to
gain information and evaluate significance you will have to judge the
merit of a trade for yourself. Your judgement is not the truth, it is merely
one interpretation among many. However, there is hope, because your
judgement will improve with knowledge, experience and critical thought.
4 Following on from the above question/answer, risk analysis is important
because share prices are volatile. It is important that you quantify, as much
as possible, the probability that the share price will move up and down
from its present position, that you evaluate how much capital you are
willing to stake, and your preferences towards risk in general.
Here is a very simple gamble that you can use to try to evaluate your
preference to risk:
Option A: You get 100 for certain.
Option B: I flip a fair coin and you get 200 if it lands heads (probability
1
/2) and nothing if it lands tails (probability 1/2).
Do you prefer A or B, or are you indifferent? The expected value of both
options is 100:
A: 100 * 1 = 100.
B: 200 * 1/2 + 0 * 1/2 = 100.
If you chose A then you are risk-averse as defined by Expected Utility Theory
because you went for the option with a lower possible variance in outcome
(i.e. 100 for certain over a half chance of 200) even though it has the same
expected value as the other option. Now ask yourself how much you would
have to be paid to just switch from A to B; what is your risk premium with
regard to the two options? In answering the question you will be evaluating
how much you value the certain option, A, vis--vis the gamble, B.
If you chose B then you are risk-loving. How much would you have to be
paid to take A?
If you are indifferent then you are neutral with regard to risk.
The above exercise is clearly too simple for most tasks of risk evaluation in
everyday life and especially trading the values of gains and losses and the
probabilities themselves are not known with certainty and trades are not pure
gambles. But market risk can be evaluated as the value of historic volatility of
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the share price/s, i.e. how much the price deviates from a
historic trend line or relative to the rest of the market (the
beta is a measure of volatility and therefore pure risk).
Moreover, thinking about risk in a quantifiable way, as
in the simple example above, will help you realize what
your preferences to risk are. You must have a clear
perception of your tolerance to risk when trading thats
the nature of the game. Try to think of some possible
gambles.
There will be a more extensive analysis of risk in
Module 14.
You must have a clear
perception of your
tolerance to risk when
trading thats the
nature of the game.
5 Here are some things to think about: risk assessment, question opinion,
think independently using the data, the three golden rules, contingency
plans, keep accounts, get confirmation.
Mechanical or discretionary?
Many online traders ask whether they should have a purely mechanical trading system or a discretionary one.A mechanical system is one in which, by a
strict set of rules, for every market eventuality you know whether to be in or
out of the market. For instance, a very simple system may involve being long
(i.e. being in the market) if the price is above the 50-day moving average and
being out (i.e. out of the market) if it is not.
With a discretionary system the ultimate decision is down to the trader
who may consider all the facts before him plus gut instinct and try to incorporate experience, etc. So, which should you go for? (See Table 2.1.)
TA B L E 2 . 1
Discretionary system or mechanical system?
Discretionary system
Mechanical system
No amount of programming can incorporate
No emotions in decision making. Should lead
human experience into a mechanical system.
Can never be as thoroughly back-tested
because the trader cannot put himself back in
time to decide how he would have felt about a
particular trade and whether he would have
placed it.
Do not need to know how to program trading
software.
to a less stressful life.
Since it can be mathematically back-tested you
can have a fairly good idea, albeit inconclusive,
about future performance.
No constant decision making. Relatively stressfree.
MODULE 2
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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There are certain
personality-related
issues to resolve too
before you decide the
type of strategy you
should go for.
There are certain personality-related issues to resolve
too before you decide the type of strategy you should go
for. Here is a simple test. It meets the highest standards in
psychometric testing and has been designed with cunning
subtlety so you should take it very seriously.
How disciplined are you when it comes to executing
trades?
1 My name is General Colin Powell.
2 Very disciplined, always take a signal, no problems.
3 Sometimes disciplined, but occasionally go for a wild
shot.
4 Not very disciplined at all, trade on whim.
5 My name is Homer Simpson.
Total points _______
Are you mathematical by nature?
1 Ive lost count of my age.
2 Hate maths.
3 Intermediate, competent.
4 Very good.
5 I work for NASA.
Total points ______
Do you like programming computers?
1 I cant program the microwave.
2 I could probably learn but wouldnt really enjoy it.
3 I wouldnt be bad.
4 I could do it and would enjoy it.
5 I taught Bill Gates all he knows.
Total points _______
Are you more logical or more emotional?
1 I cried through Star Wars.
2 Pretty emotional and feeling-based rather than strictly rational.
3 Probably a bit of both most of the time.
4 I think things through clearly and methodically, logic is my light.
5 My name is Spock, I work on the Starship Enterprise.
Total points _______
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What do you enjoy about trading?
1 Soros comes to me for my opinion on the markets.
2 I like being involved, part of the game, plus want to profit, too.
3 I want to make money, but want to enjoy trading, too.
4 I want to make lots of money. Period. I dont care too much about the
trading.
5 Greed.
Total points _______
What type of trader do you admire most?
1 George Soros.
2 The type who has to make choices and work hard.
3 I dont know.
4 The type who can put his feet up.
5 John Merriwether.
Total points _______
How good are you at decision making?
1 I told you, my name is General Colin Powell.
2 Quite good. I like to make them, stick by them and watch them succeed
or fail.
3 All right most of the time. Have difficulties occasionally.
4 Pretty indecisive.
5 I have just spent an hour on this question.
Total points _______
How lazy are you?
1 I dont do sleep.
2 Not very, I like to work hard, play hard.
3 As much as the next guy. I like my short-cuts.
4 If there is a quicker way of doing something I would like to know it.
5 I am answering this in bed. It is 4pm.
Total points _______
How do you handle stress?
1 I am a space shuttle commander when I am not sailing naked down the
Amazon, coated in honey.
2 Quite well. It gives me a buzz.
MODULE 2
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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3 Sometimes I dislike it.
4 Hate it.
5 On my wedding night I had to use Viagra. I was 22.
Total points _______
Now tot up your scores and use the following guidelines to determine
whether you are more suited to a mechanical system or a discretionary one.
923:
You would handle a discretionary system well given your personality, and would probably enjoy it, too.
2436: You could probably handle both quite well. You may want a very
mechanical system with occasional override discretion.
37+:
Better do it by the book.Mechanization for you,my friend,is the best
option.
Your very own system:
you just gotta have one
Since this is a book about trading systems,I feel obliged to give you a few reasons why you should have one, although it is arguable that if you have
bought the book, you do not need converting.
Trading Valium: a stress reliever
Trading gets frustrating.Whoever you are. It gets stressful if you have had a
string of losses. It can consume your waking hours, and your sleeping ones.
You can get to a stage where you think of nothing but how you have been
trading.
With a trading system some of that stress can be alleviated, if not avoided
altogether, if you have the knowledge that your system was tested for profits
and that despite some losses you will make money by following it.
Plan A, Plan B Plan Z
While a plan cannot predict the future, it can lay down how you will react
to the possible outcomes. This is why a plan is essential. It is a list of strategic responses to events beyond your control. You control the only thing
you can control yourself.
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A system removes much uncertainty, which itself is the
cause of anxiety, confusion, anger and frustration. A good
plan should therefore release psychological energy that is
being expended unnecessarily on uncertainties. The flip
side is that trading should become effortless, you should be
more relaxed and possibly even enjoy your trading more!
You can get to a stage
where you think of
nothing but how you
have been trading.
Dont chase me
Strategically,too,a good plan improves trading.It assists in identifying opportunities and so stops you from chasing the market. It tells you when to exit,
so you are not left clinging to the mast of a sinking ship.You gain some control instead of being swept along and buffeted around.
Expert advice
Pat Arbor, former chairman, Chicago Board of Trade
As a trader you must decide what you are. You are either a speculator,
spreader or local scalper. You have to fit into one of those categories. Me,
I am suited to spreading. To find what suits his personality, he just has to
see whether or not he makes his money at what hes doing. I have had
people come into the office saying, I am a great trader. I say, Youre
right. They say, Know how to trade. I say again, Right, and they say, I
predicted that the market was going to go up or down, and I say again,
You are right. But the bottom line is whether you make any money.
Save me from temptation
A system makes it easier for you to resist the temptation of
doing what is comfortable, because in trading, doing what
is comfortable is often the wrong thing.Think of how many
times you have let a loss run or cut a profit short because it
was the comfortable thing to do. Eventually, as you get used
to following your system, it will become second nature. So,
too, a plan is a means of changing your trading behaviour
for the better.A kind of trading straitjacket, protecting you
against your wilder emotions.
MODULE 2
Think of how many
times you have let a
loss run or cut a profit
short because it was
the comfortable thing
to do.
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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Good traders have
confidence in their
abilities to the point
they know they are
destined to make
money.
I am in charge
Your own trading strategy is going to give you the independence to test your ideas without having to wait for a
particular market guru to give you his opinion. The buck
can stop with you, for profits and losses.
Pick and choose
When you are building your own trading system, you can
pick and choose which fits your trading personality and
preferences instead of choosing someone elses system,
designed for their particular foibles. For example, you may want a profitable
system, but with very few losing trades. You may be happier with such a
system than one which is 10% more profitable but has double the number
of losing trades.
Confidence
With your own creation, you know you have tested it for profitability.That
can mean a lot when it comes to actually pulling the trigger, when you are
unsure whether or not to place a particular trade. Good traders have confidence in their abilities to the point they know they are destined to make
money. Part of this confidence comes from having spent hours developing
their own systems. Once they execute the trade, confident in the system,
they can focus on the trade itself, and not have to waste time on whether it
was a mistake, or whether expert Joe Shmoe in the newspaper was right in
his opinion about the trade.
Emotions are out, certainty is in
For many online traders deciding when to place a trade and when to get out
can be an agonizing experience.With a system, you can almost automate the
process.The additional benefit is that you can remove the fear of cutting a
loss and the hope that comes from hanging onto losers when you should
have cut them.
System is friend, me is enemy
You are your own
worst enemy when it
comes to trading.
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You are your own worst enemy when it comes to trading.
You are human and inevitably make irrational decisions
based on tips, fear, greed. The system is like a port in a
storm.It keeps you safe and makes sure you remain on track
and do not get sidetracked.
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Exercises
1 What is the difference between a discretionary and a mechanical system?
2 What are the merits and demerits of both?
What you have learned
Much anxiety in trading, as in life, stems from uncertainty about the future. It is
when we do not know what the future holds that we become anxious. Thats
where a trading system comes in.
Discretionary trading systems are more flexible but can never be as thoroughly back-tested because the trader cannot put himself back in time to decide
how he would have felt about a particular trade and whether he would have
placed it.
Mechanical trading systems can be mathematically back-tested. You can
have a fairly good idea, albeit inconclusive, about future performance.
While a plan cannot predict the future, it can lay down how you will react to
the possible outcomes. The advantages of developing your own system are
clear.
You can have a system that is made to measure by picking and choosing
which signals fit your trading personality and preferences.
You will gain confidence from having spent hours developing your own systems. Once you execute the trade, confident in the system, you can focus on
the trade itself and not have to waste time on whether it was a mistake.
Deciding when to place a trade and when to get out can be an agonizing
time. With a system, you can automate.
You can control inappropriate, ill-planned trades.
Notes
MODULE 2
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO TRADE ONLINE?
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News how to get it
and how to use it
MODULE
ews is important. It allows us to get a feel for why the market is
moving, then why a sector may be moving, and downwards onto an
industry then into a stock (see Fig 3.1, p. 34). News has many functions for
the trader (see Table 3.1, p. 32).
There is a lot of information on the web and you have little time.Therefore you will have to know where to go to get the knowledge you need and
how to use it once you have it.
What you will learn
Having worked through this module you will know:
what type of news and information you need;
where the best sources are;
how to use this knowledge in your trade evaluations as a whole.
Module outline
First we shall see what general information you should look for and why,
e.g. economic news, market news.
Second we will examine how you should research
individual companies.
Third we will familiarize ourselves with the workings of
search engines.
There is a lot of
information on the
web and you have little
time.
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What the trader can glean from news
Type of News
Uses
Market news
Is the market in trouble?
Is there much negative news that will stop stocks
soaring?
Are there economic problems in the economy, such
as high inflation, low growth, strikes, political
uncertainty, low productivity, all of which will impact
stock price rises?
Which sectors are rising and which are falling?
Is there sector rotation, i.e. some sectors accelerate
Sector
while others fall?
Is there growth in certain sectors, e.g. technology,
and trouble with others, e.g. consumer goods?
More specifically, which industries in a sector are
Industry
enjoying good growth?
Is there news about positive telecoms development
or negative tobacco issues?
Is the company generating a sound, positive stream
Company
of news?
Or is it warning of earnings problems? Good news
flows should be reflected in strong upward price
moves. How is the price faring?
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General news
Question, question and then question some more
As a trader, at the outset you must have a general idea of what parts of the
economy are doing well. Your aim as an online trader is to invest in those
projects that will present you with the highest possible return relative to the
plethora of other available investment projects, over a given period of time.
But there are so many different areas to invest in, I hear you say.Therefore
you need to have a starting point, otherwise you will be swamped. A good
place to begin is to ask general questions about the markets and stocks and
then proceed to answer those questions.As you work your way through this
chapter, answer the following questions:
Which markets am I interested in?
Is the general economy doing well?
Which sectors am I interested in?
Is the US telecoms sector (or other sector you may be interested in)
suffering?
Which telecoms stocks have been popular?
All this questioning what purpose does it serve? Questioning is the first
stage of analysis.It helps to focus your thoughts so that you can create an efficient plan of action.However,its not enough to ask questions.Here is where
the general market news comes in. Financial and market news is crucial
because it answers your queries, and it encourages further questioning.Also,
if you wish to trade on the market index, e.g. the FTSE 100 or the Nasdaq,
rather than any particular company, general market news is, of course,
directly important.
Types of news
All news is not the same. And each type of news has different uses for the
trader.We need to appreciate the different types and how to use them see
Table 3.2.
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FIGURE 3.1
The news hierarchy
Company
news
Industry news
Sector news
Market news
TA B L E 3 . 2
34
The different types of news
Type of news
What it provides
How to use it
Newswire (also called market pulse)
see Fig 3.2
A quick-fire summary of a news item.
Limited analysis.
Mainly just describes what has
happened. We have to do most of our
own analysis.
Can give us advance warning of
impending price moves.
Most useful to short-term active
traders because of its likely impact on
prices in the short term.
Columns (commentary) see Fig 3.3
A daily or weekly piece from a regular
writer on a particular issue such as
telecoms stocks or emerging market
stocks.
The columnist is usually taking the
recent newswires and adding a bit
more analysis and opinion to them,
explaining their significance to us.
They give us a clearer picture of
which stocks we should investigate
further.
Feature see Fig 3.4
An infrequent, very detailed special
feature on a sector.
For the longer-term trader as usually
identifying longer-term prospects.
Often identifies value stocks whose
present stock price does not
accurately reflect future prospects yet
or which will gradually rise over time
as the company proves itself.
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FIGURE 3.2
Newswire
FIGURE 3.3
Column
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FIGURE 3.4
Special feature
Where to look
Here are some of the best news sites.The sites listed in the next section on
researching individual companies will also be useful for general news.
Bloomberg ***
www.bloomberg.com
An abundance of news and commentary in a no-nonsense format. Excellent
reporting, sharp presentation and speed for top-notch coverage of industry,
markets, hi-tech stocks and the global economy.The site is cleanly designed.
Valuable information delivered well.
Each type of news has
different uses for the
trader.
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CBS Market Watch ***
www.cbs.marketwatch.com
Front page packs essential breaking stories on the market and companies.
The information is well organized and easy to navigate, with keyword
searches. Links in articles are well thought out. Free tools include company
research, charts and delayed quotes.
CNNfn ***
www.cnnfn.com
With its reporters worldwide, the site is able to break news and offer a very
fast newswire service. Its writers also do more in-depth thoughtful analytic
pieces which we as traders can use, too.
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European Investor **
www.europeaninvestor.com
A good site for quotes, charts and news for European exchanges. Design is
attractive and the site is easy to navigate. Free registration gives you 25 realtime quotes a day.The company profiles could be more in-depth but are sufficient, especially if you want information about European stocks in one
place.
Financial Times **
www.ft.com
The reliable pink pages online has full access to its leading companies and
markets news. It also has a searchable archive and you can get news
e-mailed to you. Also see FT Market Watch at www.ftmarketwatch.com
decent market coverage and analysis. Offers an assortment of model portfolios.Well-written articles.The design is uncluttered.
LatinFocus ***
www.latin-focus.com
Sharp site for investors in select Central and South American countries. Pullup detailed economic profiles packed with data.An excellent place for initial research.
Money.net ***
www.money.net
Free streaming real-time quotes. Recently added improved market news and
message boards.Very valuable.
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Reuters Moneynet **
www.moneynet.com
Market commentary is very good. Breaking news, category news and companies prominent in the news today will all be very helpful to get you
started. But little visual variety makes it a bit monotonous.
Wall Street Journal **
www.wsj.com
The main problem with this site is the annoying registration aspect. Other
than that the news content is best for thoughtful pieces, not necessarily the
newswire aspects.
WorldlyInvestor ***
www.worldlyinvestor.com
An excellent collection of columns and in-depth features from industry practitioners, which means they are especially insightful and helpful to the
trader.The site is well organized so you can focus on sectors you are most
interested in.
411 Stocks ***
www.411stock.com
This is a simple megasite for finding information about a stock. Provides
price data, news, discussion groups, charting, fundamental data, income
statements.A lot of information in one place.
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I want to see which
sectors the websites
are picking up on.
Case study: getting sector news
I want to see which sectors the websites are picking up on.Are there any sectors they think are particularly interesting? So I click on the CBS MarketWatch site (Fig 3.5) which always has useful, insightful commentary the
type that knows what is really happening in the markets and is written for
traders to profit from.
FIGURE 3.5
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CBS Marketwatch headlines
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Visiting the site, the headline which catches my attention is Tobacco gets
a buzz. Clearly there has been some positive news surrounding tobacco
issues and I may want to investigate this sector further. So I read on (Fig 3.6)
FIGURE 3.6
The news gets more detailed
But how do you know if you should listen to that one commentator on
that one site? Easy.
1 Is it a well-respected site such as the ones I have listed here? If it is not
listed above, is it one whose brand you have come across before?
2 Scan a few other sites. Do any of them pick up a similar theme, e.g.
tobacco stocks likely to rally?
3 Make a note of the stock names and the reasons the site gives, then use
them later for when we do our own research and confirm
for ourselves whether we agree these stocks are a good
buy or a goodbye. A good trader doesnt take anyones
word for it but his own.
MODULE 3
A good trader doesnt
take anyones word
for it but his own.
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Exercise
You have a go. Visit four of the sites listed above, and scan for two major economy or sector stories that suggest that further investigation may lead to good
stocks to research.
Remember as you do this:
the clue is in the headlines;
it should not take time the headlines should jump out at you;
after the headline see which subtitle looks the most promising;
Print out the story for later cross-reference to assist in your research. Also to
keep in a folder so that it can help with your trade planning (more about this
later) if you decide to buy the stock.
Jot down your findings here.
Site:
Headline:
Potential stocks
to investigate:
But surely if the story is in the headlines the stock price will already have
jumped?
This can sometimes be true for very immediate price moves,but if you are
a longer-term holder it need not be a problem.We are looking for the types
of news stories that suggest the price is still to move up, that are forward
looking, for instance something headed:
Telecoms undervalued
Pharmaceuticals still further to ride
Housebuilders may end slide
We would not be looking for headlines which report what has already
happened to the share price, with little inkling of what may happen next:
Tobacco stocks popped up yesterday
Good morning for retailers
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The firm
How do you gauge
whether you should
invest in this company?
Lets presume you have heard about a company and are
interested in it as a potential investment you may have
heard about it on one of the sites above, the newspaper,
from a friend.How do you gauge whether you should invest
in this company? The news is a starting point, but its time
for you to consider whether the company looks good enough for you.
Starting with news to research individual companies
What kind of things would you want to know about a potential investment?
Here are a few suggestions:
What exactly is their business?
How big is it?
Any major items of recent news about them.
How much profit analysts think they will make in the future; the firms
business strategy.
What other investors have thought of them.
How their share price has performed in the last few years.
How their accounts look how profitable they are and how profitable they
can be.
Most of these questions will be answered in Modules 6 and 7. For now let us
focus on company-specific news.
To find out news about a specific company using any of the excellent sites
mentioned above is relatively easy as they all follow a similar format.
Ticker box
The first thing you need is the companys ticker symbol, which is an abbreviation for the stock, e.g. Microsofts ticker is msft.The symbol lookup link
under the ticker box will help you find the ticker symbol for your stock.You
then enter that into any appropriate box Figs 3.7 and 3.8 show boxes
where tickers can be entered.
You will then be taken to more detailed information about the stock and
this usually includes most recent news (Figs 3.9 and 3.10).
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Story
Often, however, whenever a company is mentioned in a story the company
name is underlined, meaning if you click on it you will be taken to more
information about the company, including news (Fig 3.9).
News search
Some sites allow you to search for news, but the same principle applies as
for a first search (Figs 3.10 and 3.11).
Question: What about news about non-US stocks?
Answer: Simply go to a site that caters for this. For example, FTMarketWatch and
ADVFN will give you stock symbols and news for UK and European companies as
well as US ones. ADVFN has a helpful site at www.advfn.com.
FIGURE 3.7
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Showing symbol lookup link and
ticker box symbol
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FIGURE 3.8
Symbol lookup box for searching company tickers
FIGURE 3.9
Clicking on highlighted stock names takes you to more
information about those companies, including news
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FIGURE 3.10
All the news from Microsoft
FIGURE 3.11
FT.com and Moneynet.com have good search facilities
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Definitions
RNS a term you will find when searching for news on UK companies. Stands for
regulatory news service. It will be bland, basic news, with no interpretation. However, this news is useful precisely because it is an impartial primary source of information.
AFX news articles from the Associated Financial Press. It is a newswire and therefore opinionated, so maybe not an adequate option.
Exercises
1 Find the ticker symbols for the following four stocks:
Cisco (US)________
Sun Microsystems (US)________
Atlantic Telecom (UK)________
France Telecom (French)________
2 For each of these companies find both the latest and historical news using
one of the websites mentioned above.
What we are looking for in
company newsflow
We are looking out for positive news items about the company:
winning new orders;
increasing orders;
entry into new sectors;
new product developments;
good strategic alliances;
accelerations in current business model.
We also want to know what the analysts are forecasting upcoming profits to
be. This is worth knowing because they receive regular private briefings
from the company on how things are going and so are usually on the mark
with their estimates.
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If there is some aspect
of the company you
are wondering about
or cannot understand,
other peoples opinions
will be helpful.
Finding out what other investors have thought of the
company, through chat rooms and share picks, is interesting since you gauge other peoples opinion. If there is some
aspect of the company you are wondering about or cannot
understand, other peoples opinions will be helpful. However, there are various warnings that are stamped on these
sorts of prescriptions. I discuss these in Modules 11 and 14.
Remember
An investors opinion is just one estimation, one outlook, not the last word.
How to scan newsflow
Since there are many news items, and we want to be as efficient as possible
so we can make our money and actually have time to spend it, instead of
being in front of the computer all the time, we need to know how to scan
these news headlines.
The general rule is that news companies try to tell as much as possible in
the headline. Consequently, I tend to focus on those headlines which
common sense tells me are likely to include some information of the above
type I am looking for. In Table 3.2 I have highlighted the ones I consider to
be in that category out of a series for Sun Microsystems. However, I may
examine some of the others, too, if I think I need more information about a
stock.
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Newsflow for Sun Microsystems shows some headlines which merit further investigation
Friday, August 11, 2000
11:56 PM
11:56 PM
11:56 PM
11:52 PM
11:51 PM
11:50 PM
11:50 PM
11:50 PM
11:39 PM
11:37 PM
6:05 PM
4:14 PM
3:46 PM
2:47 PM
12:54 PM
11:02 AM
9:45 AM
Startup Axient Bets On Private Fiber Network WITH A 60-CITY NETWORK, AXIENT
GETS DEAL FROM NBC TO DELIVER BROADBAND OLYMPIC COVERAGE CMP Media
Vendors As VCs Money And Influence As the biggest technology vendors
increasingly act as venture capitalists, what are they getting in return? CMP Media
Finding Components On The Web DEVELOPMENT PORTALS OFFER TESTED,
CERTIFIED, REUSABLE CODE THAT HELPS SPEED PROJECTS CMP Media
The New Developer Portals BUYING, SELLING, AND BUILDING COMPONENTS ON
THE WEB SPEEDS COMPANIES TIME TO MARKET CMP Media
Vendors Partner With Venture Capitalists To Fund Startups CMP Media
The Two Faces Of E-Biz Management CMP Media
Sun teams with vignette CMP Media
Stealing Javas Thunder Microsofts upcoming Visual Studio.net offers an integrated
development interface, a new programming language, and programming shortcuts
that should result in more-efficient Web development. A secondary, unstated aim is to
slow Javas progress. CMP Media
AMD, Intel draw 64-bit battle lines CMP Media
XML GAINS MOMENTUM ebXML emerging as EDI alternative for B2B transactions
CMP Media
GSA Awards FirstGov Contract to GRC International PRNewswire
WRAP: Dell shares fall 11% on concerns about future sales growth (Update1) Futures
World News Select
LinuxWorld Conference & Expo Exhibitor Profiles A to Z; Conference and Expo to Start
Next Week in San Jose, Calif. BusinessWire
Stock picks of the week: EMC, Pfizer, Sun, Johnson & Johnson and H-P Deborah
Adamson CBS MarketWatch.com
First Ecom.com Inc. Announces Second Quarter Financial Results BusinessWire
Robinson-Humphrey Analyst Interviews On RadioWallStreet.com BusinessWire
Planet City Software Teams With CRD Capital PRNewswire
Thursday, August 10, 2000
11:01 PM
8:23 PM
8:13 PM
Sun, Microsoft Java Battle Delayed Unknown (cmtx-pc)
James J. Whitney Named Forsythe Solutions Groups E-Business Solutions Technologist
BusinessWire
PVI, Sportvision, Inc. Named Winners Success Story Receives Recognition from Sun
Microsystems, Computerworld Competition PRNewswire
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Exercise
Find and highlight the most important news items for the Indian technology
company Satyam, which is listed in the US under ticker code SIFY.
Did you learn anything about US corporate investment in India?
Did you find out the names of major US companies investing in India?
Did you discover Indian economic conditions?
Has Satyam entered into recent alliances?
What other interesting stock moving news was there for the stock?
Key terms
Technical analysis: methods used to forecast future prices using the price
data alone (for example by plotting it as a chart and noting direction) or
using the price as an input in mathematical formulae and plotting the results.
Contrast this with fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis: forecasting prices by using economic or accounting data. For example one might base a decision to buy a stock on its yield.
Market capitalization: this is the product of the number of shares outstanding and the current price.
Director dealings: whether the directors have been buying or selling
shares in their company.
Search engines
The internet is a huge expanse of information and if you want to navigate it
and find the information you want, you will have to search.
What is a search engine?
A search engine is simply a site that searches other sites depending on keywords entered by a user. Search engines are therefore of general use, not just
for the online trader.
The internet is a huge
expanse of
information.
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How to search
Simple:type in the keyword and press enter.If you want to be
technical, most search engines have options which allow you
to specify whether the engine is to provide results that contain the keywords as a phrase or any one of the keywords.
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HOT TIPS
Since pages on the internet change quickly, a search engine is unlikely
to be up to the minute and some results may be out of date.
Just because an engine does not find a site does not mean it doesnt
exist.
Because of the different ways search engines work each will return
different results.
If you are not satisfied with the results, try a different engine.
Results are ranked according to the closeness of the match to your
request, and not according to the best available site in terms of
content.
Top search sites
Use these sites to search for information on specific areas of trading:
Altavista
www.altavista.com
Excite
www.excite.com
Lycos
www.lycos.com
Yahoo!
www.yahoo.com
Summary
You now have a good idea of what basic information you need for your trading and where to get it.You will need general and company-specific news.
However,remember this is not a one-off process.Researching potential areas
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for your investments is an ongoing and dynamic process. As you learn you
will fill in gaps and gain insights. By building a body of knowledge and experience, you will gain confidence.
In Module 4 we go on to look in more detail at how to pick stocks.
Self-assessment
1 Which one of these is not something you would find a useful piece of market
news?
a inflation projections;
b last years inflation figures;
c expected growth rates;
d possible foreign armed conflict.
2 What is sector rotation?
3 What is another name for a newswire service?
a market wire;
b market rotation;
c market pulse;
d market beat.
4 To what type of trader is a newswire most useful?
a active short-term traders;
b medium-term traders;
c long-term traders.
5 Which has the least analysis?
a market pulse;
b column;
c special feature.
6 Does stock price always react to news?
7 Name a site that provides news on non-US securities by allowing you to enter
their ticker symbols.
Answers:
1 b because they are backward looking. While they are relevant in shaping
this years expectations, they are too far in the past to have market influence.
2 Where sectors that were not increasing in price start growing as money
rotates into them and out of previously leading sectors.
3 c market pulse (used for instance by FTMarketWatch.com).
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4 a active short-term traders as such news is purely factual and tends to
influence the immediate price, although it can often have longer-term ramifications, depending on how it is interpreted.
5 a market pulse it tends to be factual, not with opinion.
6 No that is one reason why trading is so difficult.
7 One answer could be www.ftmarketwatch.com.
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Choosing stocks
technical analysis
MODULE 4
SECTION
TOOLS AND STRATEGIES
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Tools and
strategies
MODULE
Dont gamble: buy some good stock, hold it until it goes up and then sell it if
it doesnt go up, dont buy it!
WILL ROGERS
The eternal question, the question that bears on the mind of every trader, is:
Will this stock rise?
This question is at the heart of any choice about a stock all other
questions flow from this one. One way of evaluating whether a stock price
will rise is to analyze how the price has moved in the past. Technical
analysis (or TA to its friends) is a basis for forecasting future prices using
(recent) past price data.
What you will learn
Having worked through Modules 46 you will:
have an understanding of many of the TA strategies;
know when and how to use them as tools in your overall trading;
have information about what sites to look at for TA tools
online and for TA education;
have an idea of what software you will need, depending
on how much TA you want to do.
Module outline
First I shall look at some online trading problems and the
rationale for TA.
One way of evaluating
whether a stock price
will rise is to analyze
how the price has
moved in the past.
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Second I shall take you through some tools used to evaluate price moves
(this is a large section).
TA: What? Why?
You will face many queries when trading.
How do I know which securities to buy?
Even if I know what to buy, when is the best time to buy it so I reduce the
chances of the stock going down right after I have bought it?
What are the signs that a security is tanking, i.e. ripe for a fall?
However, you have the ability to tackle such problems.The reason for using
TA is to get a good idea about when to buy low and sell high.It tends to work
best over a time frame of a few days to a few months, so is ideal for shortterm to medium-term trading. Many of the indicators and methods of analysis we will examine are trying to determine when traders may have
overreacted and have sold too much stock too quickly or vice versa and
therefore afford us the opportunity to enter or exit the market at the best
time to maximize profits.
Definition
Technical analysis is a method of determining opportune buying and selling points.
It involves methods used to forecast future prices using the price data alone (for
example, by plotting it as a chart and noting direction) or using the price as an
input in mathematical formulae and plotting the results. Contrast this with fundamental analysis, which looks at a companys accounts, reports, etc. in order to
evaluate price moves.
TA does not always
work. It cannot explain
everything in the
market.
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But TA does not always work. It cannot explain everything in the market, since the market does not behave in a
necessarily consistent manner.Whenever we use TA, or any
other form of analysis, we are, in fact, looking for points
where there is an increased probability of a price move.We
look for areas into which it is highly probable that the price
will move.
CHOOSING STOCKS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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The tools and the strategies
I am not going to go through every single analytic method known to man
and beast. I am going to focus on the techniques I use, those which are the
most popular and which the major institutions use.At the end of this module
you wont have a PhD in TA, but that doesnt matter youre going to use TA,
not lecture on it.
The basics
Charting The first thing all technical analysts will do is put up a price
chart. There are many types see Figs 4.14.3 for a few examples.
FIGURE 4.1
Bar chart
FIGURE 4.2
Japanese candlesticks
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FIGURE 4.3
Line chart
Bar charts (Fig 4.1) are the most popular way of depicting prices. The
extremities of the price high and the low determine the length. The horizontal line on the left of each vertical line represents the opening price, and
the horizontal line on the right represents the close.
In Japanese candlesticks (Fig 4.2) there is a body and a line (like a wick).
The body is a rectangle drawn between the open and close of the day. It is
shaded black if the close is lower than the open, and white if the close is
above the open.The wick is added to join the high and low of the day. Of
course, if there is no price movement after the open then there will be no
body or wick, just a horizontal line.
There are many more, but you get the point.
Trendlines
A trendline simply joins a series of higher lows and lower
highs. Uh? Look at Fig 4.4. We see the line joining higher and higher lows.
What trendlines try to represent are areas where there is a relatively
increased probability of a price move off the trendline. Drawing trendlines
is an art and you should not look for exact points but a feel of where prices
are hitting the approximate narrow area around the line and then moving
back up.You would not trade off the trendline, but rather use it as one piece
of evidence when determining likely price moves.
Support and resistance the last frontiers
Drawing trendlines is
an art.
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By drawing
support and resistance levels we are again trying to determine areas where prices are probably, but not certainly,
going to behave in a particular way (see Fig 4.5). This
shows support and resistance levels, the lower line being
the support. So, for instance, when the price approaches
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FIGURE 4.4
The trend is your friend
FIGURE 4.5
Support and resistance
the resistance area it has greater difficulty getting past that area and you may
decide you want to exit your position (if you are holding one) at that point.
Like trendlines, they are not set in stone.They are liable to move, and can
be penetrated intra-day or over a couple of days.They are zones of probable
price action.
With trendlines and supports and resistances, the probability of a price
move in a particular direction increases the longer the trendline has been in
force, i.e. not been significantly penetrated. For example, if the price has hit
the trendline on five occasions and then moved up,it should do the same the
seventh time it hits the trend.
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Insight
With supports and resistances what we are seeing is a battle between
buyers and sellers. For instance, at a resistance level sellers may have
decided they will start selling a security at that level because it is overpriced and buyers are too few to do much about it. So the price has to
retreat as selling increases. If buyers increase in number and size at the
crucial point, the price may break through with the force of a broken dam,
marauding buyers pushing the price higher and higher. This is one reason
why price often jumps at breakouts with a sharp rise, a leap up in price
and large volume. Watch out for these things.
Look for penetration or breakthrough of the resistance if there is one
it should be followed by a big move.
An alternative method of trading is to wait and see if the trendline or
support is not broken and then trade in the direction of the rebound.
What counts as penetration? Given market volatility you could get price
piercing a trendline or support or resistance but then close back above. For
this reason, some analysts only draw trendlines and supports based on closing prices, because intra-day prices are too erratic. Others say the price must
close for two or three days in the penetration position.
When a support or resistance level is broken it tends then to reverse its role
and become a resistance level or a support level respectively. See Fig 4.6.
This is a common occurrence known as a reversal pattern and the same
rules apply as before.
After a breakthrough of a support or resistance the price will often pull
back to the trendline it just broke through. You have to be careful of this as
you may think the move has just ended, in which case you may exit an
otherwise profitable trade prematurely.
Exercises
1 What is technical analysis?
2 Define and outline the significance of the following indicators:
a bar charts;
b Japanese candlesticks;
c Supports and resistance.
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What have you learned
Technical analysis is a method used to forecast future prices using the price
data alone or using the price as an input in mathematical formulae and plotting
the results. Contrast this with fundamental analysis, which looks at a companys
accounts, reports, etc. in order to evaluate price moves.
Bar charts are the most popular ways of depicting prices. The extremities of
the price high and the low determine the length. The horizontal line on the left
of each vertical line represents the opening price, and the horizontal line on the
right represents the close.
In Japanese candlesticks there is a body and a line (like a wick). The body
is a rectangle drawn between the open and close of the day. It is shaded black
if the close is lower than the open, and white if the close is above the open. The
wick is added to join the high and low of the day.
Supports are trendlines that join previous lows. Resistances join highs.
When a support or resistance level is broken it tends then to reverse its role and
become a resistance level or a support level respectively. This is a common occurrence known as a reversal pattern and the same rules apply as before. After
a breakthrough of a support or resistance the price will often pull back to the
trendline it just broke through. You have to be careful of this as you may think
the move has just ended, in which case you may exit an otherwise profitable
trade prematurely.
Notes
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Reversal pattern strategies
Reversal patterns are chart patterns which historically have tended to
precede a reversal in prices.Again, they are added to our overall evidence of
what the price may do, which gives a better idea of whether we should exit
a position or enter one.
Head and shoulders strategies
An anatomical pattern this.Take a look at
Fig 4.6. It is not always as clear-cut.This is a common pattern on bar charts
and fairly reliable. The horizontal line represents the neckline and you
always wait for it to be broken for it to be a head and shoulder position.The
pattern can occur on a slope.The position can also occur as a bullish (rising
share price) pattern if it appears as an opposite or mirror reflection.
FIGURE 4.6
Head and shoulders
Triangle strategies Figure 4.7 shows a triangle. For a price reversal on the
upside the horizontal line appears above the ascending diagonal line.We are
then looking for a breakout of the horizontal line.To trade the pattern you
can treat it very much like a breakout pattern from a resistance level.
Volume should be decreasing to the apex and then
increase on breakout as the marauding purchasing invaders
impeach the sellers line of defence.
To trade the pattern
Figure 4.7 shows an ascending triangle; the descending
you can treat it very
triangle is a mirror reflection and would represent a price
much like a breakout
breakout on the downside.
pattern from a
resistance level.
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FIGURE 4.7
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Triangle pattern
Saucer strategies The pattern for this is shown in Fig 4.8. It represents a
gradual change in opinion about a stock. Although saucers are rare, if you
can spot them as the price is rising they can be an additional confirmatory
indicator of a trend change.There are no price targets for this pattern so exit
needs to be determined more by rising percentage stop-losses or exit points
determined by other technical methods.
FIGURE 4.8
Saucer pattern
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Definition
Percentage stop-losses with this, a floor is maintained a fixed percentage down from the share price. Naturally, as the share price rises, this
floor also rises. The floor value is never lowered when the share price falls,
since it is penetration of this floor by the share price that is the selling
signal. As the share price rises, the profit so far is consolidated by this constant rising of the floor.
Continuation patterns
These patterns confirm that the current direction of price movement will
continue.They can represent a pause in price and so can be used as a good
point to step on before the escalator starts moving up again.
Rectangles The rectangle is simply where the price action moves sideways between a support and resistance level after a rise. It can be thought
of as a resting place where buying and selling troops stop to reconsider the
price levels.
A strategy for this is to trade it in the same way you would any other breakout of a resistance. Unlike a normal breakout, the fact that price has risen to
the rectangle formation adds to the likelihood of the breakout.
Flag strategies A flag can appear in an uptrend or downtrend (see Fig
4.9).The flag looks like a rectangle rotated diagonally upwards and is preceded by a downtrend.The flag is where, instead of a sideways move after
a downturn, buyers for a while outgun sellers and cause prices to rise, as
they believe prices have oversold. But the sellers soon return as price rises.
The flag is important only after the bottom of the flag is pierced so wait
for that. If it is not pierced, you simply have a reversal.
It can be thought of as
a resting place where
buying and selling
troops stop to
reconsider the price
levels.
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Pennant strategy
The pennant shows a rising trend followed by a price move where low boundary lines converge representing the battle between buyers and sellers. Volume should decrease to the apex and increase on
the breakout of the upper boundary. You can treat the
breakout of the upper boundary in the same way for trading as we discussed before about trading breakouts generally (see Fig 4.10).
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FIGURE 4.9
Flag pattern
FIGURE 4.10
Pennant pattern
HOT TIPS
Before moving on we should make a general point about how the TA tools
examined are to be used as part of your overall trading strategy.
Remember:
any single tool is not sufficient as the basis of a trading decision;
the tools must be used in conjunction, each providing further
confirmation or not. Find out which tools are best for you;
the TA tools must also be used to precisely time your entry or exit from
a position. Timing your entry or exit is crucial, since it is not enough to
think the price will rise or fall in the next couple of weeks. TA is a
fine-tuner.
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A little self-assessment exercise
to give you a break from the reading and get on the web.
Using one of the websites listed at the end of Module 6, find the chart
of the share price over the last year for ARM Holdings, and if youre keen,
try Imagination Technologies. They are both UK-listed. ADVFN has a helpful site at www.advfn.com.
Spot any trendlines, identify a possible support and resistance level at
present or in the past. Can you foresee any possible price reversal, or a
continuation? If so, what type of pattern does it look like?
Exercise
What is:
a head and shoulder pattern?
a triangle pattern?
a continuation pattern?
a percentage stop-loss?
What you have learned
There is a plethora of reversal pattern strategies. You should keep in mind the
most important.
Head and shoulders is a common pattern on bar charts and fairly reliable.
The horizontal line represents the neckline and you always wait for it to be
broken for it to be a head and shoulder position. The pattern can occur on a
slope and can appear in a bullish market as well.
Triangle patterns can mark a price reversal on the upside when the horizontal line appears above the ascending diagonal line. We are then looking for
a breakout of the horizontal line.
A saucer represents a gradual change in opinion about a stock.
Continuation patterns confirm that the current direction of price movement will continue. They can represent a pause in price and so can be used as a
good point to step on before the escalator starts moving up again.
The rectangle is simply where the price action moves sideways between a
support and resistance level after a rise. It can be thought of as a resting place.
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A flag can appear in an uptrend or downtrend. The flag looks like a rectangle rotated diagonally upwards and is preceded by a downtrend. The flag is
important only after the bottom of the flag is pierced so wait for that. If it is
not pierced, you simply have a reversal.
Percentage stop-losses are an important tool to protect you on the
downside. With this, a floor is maintained a fixed percentage down from the
share price. Naturally, as the share price rises, this floor also rises. The floor value
is never lowered when the share price falls, since it is penetration of this floor by
the share price that is the selling signal.
Notes
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A little more sophisticated
analysis
MODULE
ontinuing on from the last module,and now that youve had a chance
to catch your breath
Momentum-based strategies
Momentum is a generic term I am using here to discuss four similar indicators: stochastic, momentum, MACD and RSI. The reasoning behind all
momentum indicators is that a security price moving in a particular direction tends to slow down before reversing direction.A ball thrown in the air
will slow down before it plummets to earth. So will security prices.
Therefore, if we can pinpoint where it has started slowing, we can be
ready for the reversal and plan our strategies accordingly. Plotting these indicators is simple on either the software or the charting websites detailed
later.
Time frames
All the indicators mentioned so far are based on mathematical operations
undertaken on price.These formulae have one or two, sometimes three, variables that affect how the indicators are displayed and the time frame for
which they will give the best signals.Again, most software
and sites already incorporate as default settings the most
popular values for the variables and so, again, you do not
A ball thrown in the air
need to worry about that either.
will slow down before
So onwards to the issue of how to interpret these indiit plummets to earth.
cators so that you can base some strategies around them.
So will security prices.
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Overbought/oversold strategies
We say a security is
All momentum indicators can be used to indicate how
overbought or oversold a security is. Lets stick with overoversold when selling
sold.We say a security is oversold when selling has forced
has forced the price
the price down so much that it should bounce back. Overdown so much that it
bought is the opposite.
So how do we measure this? Look at Fig 5.1 which plots
should bounce back.
the momentum indicator.We would say that the security is
oversold when the momentum indicator is near its extreme
lows relative to its other lows. Now you can get more precise and say that
the security is oversold if the momentum is below a specific figure.
FIGURE 5.1
Momentum indicator
The strategy
One way to trade oversold signals is to buy the security
when the momentum indicator moves up from being oversold.Why is it so
simple? Even though it is too simple a strategy in itself, it is a useful piece of
evidence. It is too simple because momentum indicators often go oversold,
go up a little out of oversold territory, and then become oversold again.Also,
we want price to be our ultimate indicator and we therefore wait for price
to move up also momentum indicators could continue up but price could
continue down.
One way to use momentum indicators in tandem with other evidence of
an impending price move may be if the momentum is oversold and just
starts moving up, the price is in a rectangle formation and just starts to break
out. You will be more confident in the move because you will have two
independent strategies.
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Positive divergence
Improving on oversold signals is positive divergence.A positive divergence
occurs when the momentum indicator makes a higher low but price does
not.
The strategy One popular strategy is to buy as the momentum and the
price rise after the price makes its higher low.This is not foolproof, but it is
more reliable than simple oversold signals.
Negative divergence
Figure 5.2 illustrates negative divergence.The momentum indicator makes
lower highs while the price does not, or makes even higher highs. As the
momentum indicator then starts to fall from its high (overbought territory),
the price should also start to fall.Again this is a stronger signal.
FIGURE 5.2
Negative divergence
The strategy Go short or exit a long position as the price and momentum
start to dip lower.To avoid a bad signal, you could incorporate a rule like the
momentum has to fall from an oversold position and the price has to break
the previous days low before you exit.
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Definition
Long a position, opened but not yet closed, with a buy order.
Short an open position created by a sell order, in the expectation of a
price decline and so the opportunity to profit by purchasing the instrument (so closing out) at a lower price.
Reverse divergence
The reverse divergence is a variation on the negative divergence theme. It
occurs when the price makes lower highs but the momentum makes higher
highs, deeper into oversold territory.The price should fall with the momentum indicator now.
The strategy
You can decide to exit or go short as the momentum and
price both move downward from the momentums oversold position.
Momentum trendlines
Trendlines on momentum indicators can sometimes give clues to possible
price movement where no trendline can be drawn on the price chart.
The strategy
The trendline on the momentum can be used in the same
way as in a normal price indicator. So, for instance, a resistance level on
the momentum indicator may give a good indication that a price reversal
is imminent.
Exercises
1 What is the reasoning behind momentum indicators?
2 What is positive divergence?
3 What is negative divergence?
4 What is reverse divergence?
5 Look at the bar charts and momentum indicators below (ac). Note I have
used MACDs (a type of momentum indicator) here MACDs will be discussed in more detail later, but just read MACD as momentum for the time
being. What do the charts suggest?
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Answers
For answers to questions 14, look back on the relevant areas of the module.
For question 5, charts (a) and (b) suggest positive divergence in the middle of
the time frame, as the price remains near static and the momentum indicator is
moving out of oversold territory and the price is then strengthening (draw in
some trendlines to help you). Note, however, the price chart could be interpreted as moving on a slight downtrend in both charts (a) and (b) this would
suggest reverse divergence and imply an imminent price collapse. Therefore the
significance of analyzing charts a and b is that momentum patterns are not
clear-cut and their associated strategies are not fully sound; we must look at
trading as an art and use many more indicators as supportive evidence. Remember, no indicator is robust enough to make trade on.
Chart (c) suggests negative divergence as the price chart can clearly be seen
to move on an uptrend between February and June and with the momentum
indicator moving into oversold the price then plummets you should have
gone short in June.
(a)
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
CLM INSURANCE
MACD
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
August
September October
November December 1999
Momentum Stochastic Oscillator
February March
April
May
June
July
Relative Strength Index
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(b)
CLYDE BLOWERS
250
200
150
100
50
25
MACD
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
16 23 30
April
20 27
11 18
May
1 8
June
15 22 29 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24
7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23
July
August
September
October
November
(c)
125
CUSSINS PROP
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
5
MACD
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
ovember December
1998
February
March
April
Momentum Stochastic Oscillator
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May
June
Relative Strength Index
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August
September
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What you have learned
The rationale behind all momentum indicators is that a security price moving
in a particular direction tends to slow down before reversing direction. So, if we
can pinpoint the slowing down of the price, we can try to predict reversals.
The purpose of all momentum indicators is to indicate how overbought or
oversold a security is. One way to trade oversold signals is to buy the security
when the momentum indicator moves up from being oversold. This is too simple
since momentum indicators go oversold often, but it can be useful evidence.
(NB: momentum indicators can go up but price could go down.)
Use momentum in tandem with other evidence, for example if the
momentum is oversold and just starts moving up, the price is in a rectangle
formation and just starts to break out. You will be more confident in the move
because you will have two independent strategies.
A positive divergence occurs when the momentum indicator makes a
higher low but price does not, and a popular strategy is to buy as the momentum and the price rise after the price makes its higher low. This is not foolproof,
but it is more reliable than simple oversold signals.
Negative divergence occurs when the momentum indicator makes lower
highs while the price does not, or even higher highs. As the momentum indicator then starts to fall from its high (overbought territory), the price should also
start to fall. Again this is a stronger signal.
Reverse divergence occurs when the price makes lower highs but the
momentum makes higher highs, deeper into oversold territory. The price should
fall with the momentum indicator now. You can exit or go short as the momentum and price both move downwards from the momentums oversold position.
Trendlines on momentum indicators can sometimes help.
Notes
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The final instalment
nearly there
MODULE
ow for the technical analysis the pros use. There is no reason why
even a beginner should not be able to get up to speed with this.
Stochastics
While the stochastic is a momentum indicator and the interpretation and
strategies already examined can be applied to it, there are also some features
specific to it because of its design. Figure 6.1 shows a stochastic and price
chart.
FIGURE 6.1
Stochastic and price chart
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I tend to find the
stochastic less prone
to false signals which
see me enter only to
have the price not do
as expected.
%K crosses %D With the stochastics you can see there
is a solid line (%K) and a dotted line (%D). Dont worry
about the mathematical formulae that generate them.
Stochastic followers will consider a buy signal when the
%K crosses up through the %D in an oversold territory. A
sell signal is when the %K crosses down through the %D
and both are in overbought territory. When combined
with the other pattern above, such positive divergences
can be quite a powerful indicator.
False divergence This pattern occurs when the %K
approaches the %D, looks as if it is going to cross it and be a buy signal,
but instead just teases us by kissing it and rebounding off it. This can be
a strong signal of a price continuing to fall. Figure 6.2 shows an example.
FIGURE 6.2
False divergence with a bullish
pattern
Stochastic compared to the RSI and momentum indicator Relative
Strength Indicator (RSI) is a measure of momentum in the price index.
The RSI is designed to oscillate between zero and 100. I tend to find the
stochastic less prone to false signals which see me enter only to have the
price not do as expected (Fig 6.3). The stochastic is not a volatile indicator
and gives smoother, easier-to-read lines. I like it.
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FIGURE 6.3
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False sell signals in stochastic
Insight
The weakness of stochastics, momentum and RSI
If we can understand the weakness of certain indicators, we can then,
hopefully, avoid traps of poor trades, and compensate for those weaknesses by adding new indicators which do not suffer the same weaknesses.
The above indicators can all waver in the oversold or overbought
regions for prolonged periods when a trend is continuing onwards in the
same direction. So you could get a false signal to sell prematurely during
an uptrend, as the oversold indicator suggests a sell signal (see Fig 6.3).
How do we solve this?
One way is not to act on a signal until the price confirms it.
Another way to avoid the premature signal is to observe both the
momentum indicator and the MACD.
MACD (or Mac-D if youre hungry)
Not the name of a Scotsman or a burger chain, but standing for the moving
average convergence divergence, the MACD by its mathematical construction tends not to suffer from the problems of the other momentum indicators.
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The MACD tends to
give fewer buy or sell
signals than the other
momentum indicators.
The strategy The MACD tends to give fewer buy or sell
signals than the other momentum indicators. I tend to
use it to avoid the problems with the momentum indicators giving premature signals.
Why not use the MACD all the time? Well, I think it works
best when combined with other momentum indicators
because the MACD is a little slow and tends to give buy signals a bit too late.The best strategy is buying based on other
momentum indicators so long as the MACD is not falling sharply and possibly has just started moving sideways (see Fig 6.4).
FIGURE 6.4
MACD (bottom window) in
combination with momentum
(middle window) and price (top
window)
A quick round-up of the tools
and strategies
We have looked for indicators of relatively high probability that the stock
price is going to move one way and not another, and the rest is detail. It is
something you should re-read, as one read is unlikely to be enough.
Remember:
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when using TA tools, bear in mind that how stocks move in reality is not an
exact science. Therefore TA will not be on the ball all of the time;
price movement reflects investor psychology;
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TA should be used to time a purchase or sale the more you use it, the
better your timing will become.
Another little self-assessment exercise
to stop you dozing off. This is a long section and by now you probably
have a heap of TA tools messing with your normal brain functions. So in
order to have a good look at the momentum indicators while youre working through this module, try to analyze QXL.com and BT stock prices.
Using the sites, find the momentum, stochastic and MACD charts for the
share price over the last year.
What is the share price doing at the moment?
Is there any positive or negative divergence with the momentum
indicators?
Does the stochastic and MACD support any buy or sell signals
generated by the momentum indicator?
Would you buy, sell or just walk away?
Try to look at how the price moved earlier on in the year and how the
indicators performed in predicting what actually happened later in the
year just play about with the tools. It might be fun, honest.
Exercises
1 What is a stochastic indicator?
2 What is considered a possible buy signal and a possible sell signal in sto-
chastics?
3 What are the characteristics of a false divergence pattern?
4 What is a MACD?
What you have learned
MODULE 6
Stochastic is a momentum indicator and the interpretation and strategies
already examined can be applied to it. With the stochastics there is a solid line
(%K) and a dotted line (%D). Stochastic followers will consider a buy signal
when the %K crosses up through the %D in an oversold territory. A sell signal
is when the %K crosses down through the %D and both are in overbought ter-
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ritory. When combined with the other pattern above, such positive divergences
can be quite a powerful indicator.
The false divergence pattern occurs when the %K approaches the %D,
looks as if it is going to cross it and be a buy signal, but instead just teases us by
kissing it and rebounding off it a strong signal of the price continuing to fall.
The stochastic is not a volatile indicator but it is important not to act on a
signal until the price confirms it.
Another way to avoid the premature signal is to observe both the momentum indicator and the MACD. The MACD tends to give fewer buy or sell signals
than the other momentum indicators. I tend to use it to avoid the problems with
the momentum indicators giving premature signals.
The best strategy is buying based on other momentum indicators so long as
the MACD is not falling sharply and possibly has just started moving sideways.
Notes
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Technical sites and software
There are numerous TA resources on the web. The major
choice is between using software and a data download or
using an online charting service.The latter,with its inherent
limitations, is a better choice for the fundamental analysts
or the dabbler in TA.The former is the choice of the serious
technical analyst, since TA software is quicker and has more
sophisticated tools.
The major choice is
between using
software and a data
download or using an
online charting service.
The sites
Which are the best websites for doing technical analysis online if I dont
want to buy the software?
Educational sites
Below are some good places to learn more about TA.
DecisionPoint
www.decisionpoint.com
A good educational site with lots of free stuff.
Equis
www.equis.com
The specialist software company that does a neat line in online education.
Market Technician Society
www.mta-usa.com
The site for the society of technical analysts.
Trading Tactics
www.tradingtactics.com
Each major indicator is hyperlinked and explained. Quite good.
Charting websites This section contains some of the best online charting sites. Performing TA on an online website is not as easy as on a dedicated software, but it is a good starting point. The best sites tend to be the
ones with Java charting, as this makes them more interactive.
Alpha Chart **
www.alphachart.com
A very good site for real-time charting. One of the first internet sites to provide charting and still going strong with pretty good design and ease of use.
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Askresearch **
www.askresearch.com
A very good charting site,allowing multiple windows.Could be a little easier
to use. It is one of the original internet sites.
Big Charts ***
www.bigcharts.com
Charting is not an add-on feature to this site.Here you can click and compare
your favourite stock with other stocks or with a number of different indices.
Choose from a variety of chart types. You can also customize your time
frame and indicators.The website maintains three data centres to improve
reliability.
E*Trade UK ***
www.etrade.co.uk
Although this is a brokerage site, a lot of effort has gone into making the
charting aspect of it best of breed. Charting sites that open up a new screen
on the browser permit multiple screening, plus all the main indicators are
covered.The site is not Java-based but design means it is user friendly.
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MetaStock Online ***
www.equis.com/msonline
There is a learning curve here, but once you master this Java application,
youll be able to call up some of the webs best technical charts. Not for
beginners.
Outer Curve Finance ***
www.outercurvefinance.com
This site gives a free and fast read on companies technical outlook, using 22
indicators.
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Patagon ***
www.patagon.com
This is a very good super-site for those interested in trading in Latin American stocks.The charting facility is excellent, offering all the tools mentioned
above, and the design and layout make the site easy to use.
Prophet Charts **
www.prophetfinance.com/charts
This is another Java-based site.Cool feature shows current-day priced data on
chart and lets you add room on the right to do prospective charting. It is
good quality and some users may prefer its layout.
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Wall Street City **
www.wallstreetcity.com
An excellent site, crisp and clear, just the way I like it. Not Java, though.
The software
Numerous companies provide software which can then be used to download quotes from quote vendors and perform technical analysis (see Table
6.1). Few permit you to download their software from their websites, but
you can preview and download demos.
TA B L E 6 . 1
Software for downloading quotes from quote vendors
Product
Company
Address
Ranking
Cost
MetaStock 6.5
Omnitrader 3.1
SuperCharts
TeleCharts 2000
TradeStation
Window on
Wall Street
Equis
Nirvana
Omega
Worden Bros
Omega
Window on
Wall Street
www.equis.com
www.nirv.com
www.omegaresearch.com
www.worden.com
www.omegaresearch.com
www.wallstreet.net
***(recommended)
***
**
**
**
**
$349
$395
$200
$29
$200
$295
Look out for:
data included are data included in the cost or do you need to go to a
supplier?
data downloader do you need extra software to download data?
data cleaner does the software come with a feature that scans all
downloaded data for errors?
features how many indicators and types of charts can be drawn?
system development is there a programming language permitting you to
produce your own system?
Summary
There are many TA tools to choose from. There are many which are more
sophisticated than the popular ones detailed in this module.Check these out
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Do not use technical
analysis blindly it is
not foolproof and is
not going to make you
money all the time.
if you are interested through the recommended reading
listed at the end of this course book.
You do not have to use all the available technical tools.
Experiment to find out which you prefer to use together as
part of your overall trading system.And do not use technical analysis blindly it is not foolproof and is not going to
make you money all the time,the market does not work like
that. Technical analysis is only a tool; you will have to
employ it well.
Exercises
1 Triangle patterns in trendlines generally represent:
a a slow change in opinion about the share price with the price reversing
slowly;
b a sharp change in opinion with the price reversing dramatically;
c a strong indication that the price will continue on an uptrend;
d a strong indication that the price will continue on a downtrend.
2 With stochastics the best indication of a buy signal is when:
a the %K (solid line) crosses up through the %D (dotted line) in overbought
territory;
b the %K (solid) crosses down through the %D (dotted) in overbought territory;
c the %K (solid) crosses up through the %D (dotted) in oversold territory;
d the %K (solid) crosses down through the %D (dotted) in oversold territory.
3 False divergence occurs when:
a the %K approaches the %D as if there is a sell signal but then rebounds;
this is a strong signal of a continued price rise;
b the %K crosses through the %D and then both lines diverge;
c the %K approaches the %D as if there is a buy signal but then rebounds;
this is a strong signal of a price fall;
d the %D approaches up towards the %K as if there is a buy signal but then
rebounds; this a strong signal of a price fall.
4 Saucer patterns in trendlines generally represent:
a a slow change in opinion about the share price with the price reversing
slowly;
b a sharp change in opinion with the price reversing dramatically;
c a strong indication that the price will continue on an uptrend;
d a strong indication that the price will continue on a downtrend.
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Look back on the modules if you are not satisfied with your answers.
Answers: 1 b, 2 c, 3 c, 4 a.
Notes
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Choosing stocks
fundamentals
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Key ratios
and statistics
MODULE
n the next five modules were going to look at fundamental information
about stocks fundamentals for short. Fundamentals take us under the
bonnet of a company: they show us not just how well the stock is performing but how different aspects of the company are bearing up (what the profits are, how much money the company is investing in assets, whether the
stock is overpriced, whether company earnings are better or worse than
expected).Were in the business of shopping for stock, so these fundamentals are a prime source of ideas.
Several websites offer information about a companys fundamentals in the
form of profiles or a snapshot report a checklist, if you will, of how a company and its stock is performing in various areas.We shall examine these sites
and their relative merits later on, but for the present we are going to focus
on one as our example: Market Guide (www.marketguide.com).
Each fundamental tells us something different, but on the whole fundamentals are broken up into groups, e.g. fundamentals that tell us about cash
flow, fundamentals that tell us about company earnings. These groupings
take the form of tables.We will examine each table in turn as its presented
at Market Guide.
What you will learn
How to find your way around a fundamentals profile.
What each fundamentals table represents about a
company.
How to read the information they offer and how it was
arrived at.
Each fundamental
tells us something
different, but on the
whole fundamentals
are broken up into
groups.
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How to get trading ideas from this information what to look for and how
to act on it.
Module outline
Getting started
Price and volume
Company growth rates
Getting started
To get to the Market Guide snapshot report we have to do five things:
1 Choose a company.
2 Write down the companys name and its ticker symbol.
3 Log on to Market Guide (www.marketguide.com).
4 Type the name or ticker symbol of the company into the box that says
Enter names or symbols.
5 Press Go.
And hey presto,were looking at our companys snapshot report.At the heart
of the report is the key ratios and statistics section.This is a huge chart and
pretty daunting at first until you realize that its not one large table, but a collection of smaller fundamentals tables under one roof hence the title. See
Table 7.1. These are the key data necessary for fundamentals analysis.
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Key ratios and statistics
Price and volume
Recent price $
52-week high $
52-week low $
Average daily volume (mil.)
Beta
Share-related items
Market capital (mil.) $
Shares out (mil.)
Dividend information
Yield %
Annual dividend
Payout ratio (TTM) %
Financial strength
Quick ratio (MRQ)
Current ratio (MRQ)
LT debt/equity (MRQ)
Total debt/equity (MRQ)
Valuation ratios
43.63
47.38
25.00
4.09
0.97
59,029.73
1,353.12
0.46
0.20
87.43
0.39
0.58
0.71
0.79
Price/earnings (TTM)
Price/sales (TTM)
Price/book (MRQ)
Price/cash flow (TTM)
39.55
4.93
6.60
24.61
Per share data
Earnings (TTM) $
Sales (TTM) $
Book value (MRQ) $
1.10
8.85
6.61
Cash (MRQ) $
0.23
Management effectiveness
Return on equity (TTM)
Return on assets (TTM)
17.34
8.30
Return on investment (TTM)
9.45
Profitability
Gross margin (TTM) %
Operating margin (TTM) %
Profit margin (TTM) %
36.16
23.20
12.48
Note: TTM = trailing twelve months
MRQ = most recent quarter
So lets go through the snapshot report and break it down step by step.
Price and volume
This table starts off with the very basics: the latest price of the stock, how
much it has sold for in the past year,how much of it has been selling and how
stable the price is.
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Price and volume
Recent price $
52-week high $
52-week low $
Average daily volume (mil.)
Beta
43.63
47.38
25.00
4.09
0.97
Recent Price: the most recent price of stock.
The nature of the stock market means that stock prices are variable they
are always changing.In fact,the whole point of looking at fundamental information is that were trying to get an idea of what direction the stock price
will take in future. Recent price is the latest available price Market Guide has
for that stock.
52-week high: the highest amount the stock has sold for over the past
year.
52-week low: the least amount the stock has sold for in the past year.
Ideally we want the recent price to be closer to the 52-week high than it is
to the 52-week low.This shows us that the stock price is good in that it is on
an uptrend and that the company is in favour with the market.
Average daily volume (ADV): the average amount of stock traded in a
day.
The size of the average daily volume reflects the liquidity of the stock, i.e.
how much demand there is for shares in this company and therefore how
easy it is to sell those shares. In turn, this liquidity indicates the size of the
company, i.e. how wealthy and powerful it is.The higher the average daily
volume,the more liquid the stock and the largerthe company.The lower the
ADV, the less liquid the stock and the smaller the company.
Of course, it helps if we have some way of gauging ADV. Unofficially you
can break it down into four levels,each representing a different class of stock
see Table 7.2.
Ideally we want the
recent price to be
closer to the 52-week
high than it is to the
52-week low.
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Gauging ADV
Average daily
volume
Size of stock
(i.e. company)
over 4 Mil
1.6 Mil
1.0 Mil
less than 1.0 Mil
Macro capitalization
Large capitalization
Small capitalization
Micro capitalization
(Note: Market Guide places the average daily volume for stocks at 0.20 mil.)
Why is ADV important?
Well it isnt, but it can be useful to know if a
stock has an ADV below .01 mil you may have difficulty selling your
shares. It can also give a clue as to whether your sale or purchase will affect
the stock price. Suppose you want to buy or sell a large amount of shares in
a company whose ADV is low.A sale that big could set off alarm bells in the
market and affect the material price of the stock. In this case you have to
spread out your purchase over a longer period of time.
Why does size matter?
In theory, large companies that are well diversified and that have a larger financial collateral should be more stable than
smaller ones. Larger companies with overseas branches and multi-market
presence may be able to withstand cyclical shocks better, whereas small
specialized companies are much more vulnerable. However, the reverse is
also true small growing companies that are more volatile are prone to larger upturns in share price changes than large conglomerates. Obviously,
when choosing stocks you must have a clear perception of your tolerance
to share price volatility. So lets discuss betas.
Beta: the volatility of a companys stock price in relation
to the volatility of the stock market.
Beta doesnt measure the volatility of the stock. It measures
how volatile it is in the context of the market (which itself
is volatile); it measures its relative volatility. This measurement is made over a five-year period. Heres how it breaks
down:
Beta value relative value to the market.
When choosing stocks
you must have a clear
perception of your
tolerance to share
price volatility.
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If your investing is
income orientated you
might want to look at
companies with a low
beta value.
More than 1.00 the stock price is more volatile than the
market.
1.00 the stock price is no more or less volatile than the
market.
Less than 1.00 the stock price is less volatile than the
market.
So how does this help us? If your investing is income orientated (i.e. family shares, nest egg for your grandchildren)
you might want to look at companies with a low beta value.
But a higher beta number indicates that this is a growth company, and thats
what we should be looking for as equity investors. Some companies have
high share prices far above their here and now liquidation values.They arent
doing spectacular business they may be new and so arent doing much
business at all but theyre perceived to have a healthy future.And that, to
the serious investor, is the Holy Grail.
HOT TIP
Check that the recent price is strong; ignore ADV, ignore beta.
Exercises
1 What does a beta greater than 1 signify?
a The company has a large capitalization.
b The share price is less volatile than the market.
c Average daily volume is above average.
d The share price is more volatile than the market.
e The 52-week highest value of the share is the same value as the current
share price.
2 Larger multi-product companies
a are more able to absorb cyclical shocks in the economy than smaller companies;
b tend to have a more volatile share price than smaller companies;
c will always have a rising share price relative to small companies;
d have very low ADVs.
3 A daily trading volume of about 1.2 million characterizes a
a macro cap;
b large cap;
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c small cap;
d micro cap.
4 When looking at the recent price, we want it to be
a close to the year low because this means it must go up now;
b sitting nicely in the middle of the range between the year low and year
high;
c close to the year high;
d above 1000 cents.
Answers
1 d, 2 a, 3 c, 4 c.
What you have learned
Recent price shows us how much the stock costs, while the 52-week high and
52-week low figures tell us how good this price is. Average daily volume tells
us how much buying and selling of the stock has been going on not that
important but it adds context while beta tells us whether the stock price has
been steady or volatile compared with the rest of the market (again this isnt
essential). From this we can get a rough rough! idea of what direction the
stock is going in.
So now weve made a start.
Exercises
1 Compare the recent price to the 52-week high and the 52-week low of ten
different companies in the telecoms sector. Is the price performing above or
below average?
2 Looking at the average daily volume, estimate the size of the company
macro, large, small or micro?
Beta can give a clue to growth but its like trying to calculate the time by the
position of the sun when youre wearing a perfectly good wristwatch.So lets
leave the key ratios and statistics section at the moment and look at a more
useful guide to growth at Market Guide
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Growth rates
We know a few basics about the stock. We now want to get a few basics
about the company;specifically what its sales are,what its shares are actually
earning, and what its having to spend to stay in business. We should now
look at growth rates, in Table 7.3.
Sales: the amount of a companys product that has been purchased over a
given period.
Whats the most obvious way of finding out how well a company is performing? By its sales of course. Table 7.3 charts those sales for the most
recent quarter (MRQ), the trailing 12 months (TTM), and the last five years.
TA B L E 7 . 3
Charting a companys sales
Company
Sales (MRQ) vs qtr 1 yr ago
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 yr ago
Sales 5-yr growth rate
EPS (MRQ) vs qtr 1 yr ago
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 yr ago
EPS 5-yr growth rate
Capital spending 5-yr growth rate
5.03
4.93
5.52
3.34
3.22
4.56
15.30
Growth rates (%)
Industry
Sector
9.08*
8.88*
9.85
13.79*
13.79*
12.66
14.20
7.92
8.30
13.15
5.39
3.84
14.13
15.81
S&P 500
19.47
23.89
22.43
24.43
23.49
21.84
28.30
Were looking for a company whose sales are growing again,pretty obvious stuff. But dont just glance at these figures and move on. Sometimes a
drop in sales may prompt a company to cut costs and actually become more profitable (though admittedly, that company will still have to face the problem of reversing its sales
drop).
Sometimes a drop in
A company might also have completely changed its
sales may prompt a
product something the table wont tell you but which
company to cut costs
may affect future performance. There might also be a
sudden rise in sales followed by an equally sudden slump as
and actually become
consumer tastes change or the product receives bad pubmore profitable.
licity (e.g. British beef).
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Earnings per share (EPS) growth: how much profit each share earns over
a given period (after taxes).
This shows you how much money you, the shareholder, would have earned
over the most recent quarter, the last 12 months, and the last five years.The
figure is arrived at after taxes and other payments (payments to preferred
shareholders, depreciation allowances) have been subtracted so its a real,
money-in-your-hand figure.
As traders, were looking for a company whose EPS is rising that means
profits for us, but more importantly, an investment that has the potential to
go the distance.
Capital spending: money spent on purchasing and/or expanding
company assets.
Why does a company decide to spend more money on its assets (e.g. a new
computer system, a bigger office)? Because it thinks that if it improves these
assets it will either cut production time and costs, produce a better quality
of product, or produce more of a given product. Ergo, it will increase sales.
The capital spending entry shows you how much a company is spending
on assets relative to the rest of the industry. Sometimes an increase will
match that of the industry, indicating, say, that a new technology has become
an essential purchase (e.g. the need for every company to have its own website). If the amount is less, it could be that the company is saving up for a
spending increase in the future (perhaps a major new project is in the
pipeline). If the increase is greater than the industry, the company may
already be putting that project into action (a car company may have bought
new technology to help it produce a new, cutting-edge model). It could also
be that, having made that investment, the company wont have to spend so
much over the following years,which means that capital spending will drop,
thereby freeing up the amount of cash the company has to do business with.
Its also useful to compare capital spending with sales.This will give you an
indication as to whether past capital expenditure has resulted in increased
sales as planned an indication in turn that a company will or wont continue
to grow.
HOT TIP
Look for rising sales, rising EPS and rising capital spending.
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Exercises
1 The EPS represents:
a the total amount of turnover a company makes divided by the share price;
b how much profit each share earned over a given period after taxes;
c how much a company spends on acquiring assets per share over a given
period of time.
2 The level of capital spending is defined as:
a the level of earnings per share;
b the spending on the creation or acquisition of assets;
c the value of the companys product being bought;
d an increase in efficiency.
3 Sales are defined necessarily as:
a the measure of the quality of the companys product;
b the total spending on company assets;
c the total operating profit of a company;
d the value of company product sold over a given time period.
Answers
1 b, 2 b, 3 d.
What you have learned
Now weve started to learn more about the company. Sales tells us how much
of its product the company is selling. Earnings per share growth shows us
how much money the shares are making for the companys shareholders. And
capital spending shows us how much money the company is spending on
improving or expanding its operations. All of these figures relate to company
growth: the first two show us how the company has been growing; the third
indicates whether this growth will continue.
Exercises
1 Looking at Table 7.3, see if you can tell whether the companys sales have
risen or fallen over the past year.
2 Define capital spending.
So weve got a rough idea of whether the shares are performing well and
whether the company is doing well as a business. But theres something else
we need to know:Are we getting value for money? And how do forecasts for
growth look?
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Definition
Growth is important but in itself means little if future earnings cannot be
sustained. To identify value there must be a consistency of earnings and a
correspondingly attractive price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio). Many analysts
will classify shares as growth only if they can forecast at least four years
of growth.
Forecasts are not always essential however. Where its not possible to
estimate, the growth rate assessment is based on the average growth in
historic normalized EPS over the last two years, although where the following years growth is lower, forecasters go by the most recent year. The
growth rate is then reached by apportioning the figure from the current
and following financial periods covered by estimates.
Lets go back to the key ratios and statistics section and take a look at the
valuation ratios on Table 7.1.
Valuation ratios
Its all very well knowing whether the stocks or the company are performing well, but we still need to know whether were paying the right price for
the shares are we being overcharged or undercharged? Valuation ratios give
us a yardstick by comparing the price of stock to earnings, sales, the book
value and cash flow respectively.
Valuation ratios
Price/earnings (TTM)
Price/sales (TTM)
Price/book (MRQ)
Price/cash flow (TTM)
39.55
4.93
6.60
24.61
Price to earnings ratio (PER): the multiple youre paying for each dollar of
earnings of the company.
Or in plain English, a figure that tells you whether youre being overcharged
for your shares.
How is it worked out? You divide the price of the stock by the annual
share earnings.When do we need this? Its always useful, but it can be particularly helpful when comparing companies that are in the same industry
companies which dont seem to be much different to one another.What do
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we look for? Obviously a company with a lower price to
earnings ratio rather than a company with a higher P/E
Rules of thumb can be
ratio.
a dangerous thing in
BUT as with sales,its not that simple.A company with
trading they breed
a high P/E ratio may be just the ticket because its going
through a period of rapid growth hence you appear to be
complacency.
being overcharged for your share. Likewise, a company
may have a low P/E ratio because its having difficulties
with competition, a cyclical downturn or a lawsuit, i.e. its
being forced to sell cheap. Rules of thumb can be a dangerous thing in trading they breed complacency but it tends to be the case that an attractive
stock is one whose P/E ratio is lower than its long-term compound earnings
per share growth rate.
Price to earnings growth (PEG): the price to earnings ratio of a share
divided by the estimated future growth rate in earnings per share.
The price to earnings ratio of a company is not the best way of assessing the
investment opportunity offered by a companys shares. It merely tells you
the price of the share relative to future earnings. It doesnt tell you whether
the price constitutes a bargain investment.
The price to earnings growth (PEG) factor is a more sophisticated method
of assessment because it ties in the price to earnings ratio with future earnings growth rate. This gives a much better insight into the true potential
value of a company. PEG shows how high the PER could be and whether the
shares are a realistic bargain or an expanding bubble.
Example One
Take the situation in the UK in May 1998. The average UK share had an
estimated multiple of 15 and was tipped to have increased coming-year
earnings growth of 8%. This meant that the estimated PEG was 1.9 (15
divided by 8). A low PEG value reveals that investors are paying a relatively
low price for future earnings growth, whereas a high PEG indicates that
the shares are relatively more expensive.
A lower than average PEG may at first seem attractive but in fact this
means the market is still at a relatively high level. Ideally, and for the best
bargains, you should be looking for a PEG below 1. Time has confirmed
this again and again. A company growing at 15% pa would be very
attractive on a multiple of 15 or less. Correspondingly, a multiple of 20
would also be good value.
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Example Two
Heres a hypothetical example to give a clearer idea of how PEG works. A
company growing at 25% pa on a forecast PER of 16 would present the
attractive PEG of 0.64. When the estimate becomes a reality with an
actual 25% growth, the shares gain a double benefit: first the higher
earnings figure used by the analysts in coming to their conclusions; and
second from a change in status as the market accepts that a higher PER is
justified. So the PER might rise from 16 to 20, marking an earnings gain
of 25% on top of another 25% increase from the status change. The total
gain would therefore be 56.25%. In this way PEG can have a dramatic
effect on share price.
PEG can also be used defensively and not simply to maximize share potential.The lower the PEG below average, the less vulnerable. It can be a good
idea to regularly assess the PEG average of a growth portfolio to see how
defensive it would be in a bearish climate. Of course, PEG shouldnt be seen
in isolation as a litmus test of profitability. Nonetheless, as a single financial
statement it gives a quick guide to the relative value of growth shares.
Price to sales ratio (PSR): the price of stock relative to the sales generated
by the company.
How is it worked out? PSR is calculated by dividing the companys market
capitalization by total sales, ex VAT. Its just like dividing share price by sales
per share.Again, what use is this? P/E ratios are all very well, but some companies dont have earnings and dont pay dividends either (e.g. some internet companies). In this case you have to look at multiples of sales and the
level of growth rate the higher the better.
Of course,it could be a company that does have earnings
but experiences wild swings of peaks and troughs (e.g. a
toy manufacturer that specializes in merchandising that ties
In both cases price to
in with the annual summer Hollywood blockbusters you
sales ratios offer a
know,those toys that sell like hot cakes in July but are in the
more stable indicator
bargain bins by Christmas). In both cases price to sales
ratios offer a more stable indicator of the companys health.
of the companys
health.
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Low PSR is often regarded as the best indication of share value by many
analysts. Wall Street figures for 195494 reveal that low PSR companies
outperformed the market average at the rate of 15.5% against 12.5%.
The average rate for a high PSR company was a meagre 4%.
HOT TIPS
PSR is a great method of analysis when it comes to spotting potential
recovery in otherwise slumping companies. In a slump, a company will
often have no PER and even no dividend yield against which to value its
shares in the traditional way. PSR is a handy means of assessing potential value in the event that the company recovers. And usually its true
to say that the lower the PSR the better.
Turnover must be profit convertible if it is to add value to a company.
Profit margins and their trends should be studied in comparison with
PSR figures. Compare companies within their sectors to discover those
anomalies that might just indicate a brilliant investment opportunity.
Debt is an important factor. A company with no debt and low PSR is
better placed than one with debt and a high PSR. Debt will need to be
repaid and further equity will inevitably have to be issued. The extra
shares will then be added to the market capitalization and this will
increase the PSR level accordingly.
Price to book value (PBV) ratio: the value of stock compared to the value
of the assets it owns (clear of debt).
PBV is a theoretical
ratio. It gives an
estimate of how much
money would be left if
a company liquidated
its assets and settled all
its debts.
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PBV is the share price of a company divided by net asset
value per share another way of saying this is to divide capitalization by net assets.This is a theoretical ratio. It gives an
estimate of how much money would be left if a company
liquidated its assets and settled all its debts.
There is a problem, though, with that word theoretical.
For a start,this doesnt apply to a services company because
the assets dont generate the revenue. Second, assets are
valued on the books at the prices the company paid for
them, minus cumulative depreciation/amortization
charges, the idea being to reduce their value to zero over
the period of use in which they approach obsolescence.
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But this period of use in which they approach obsolescence is calculated
through a specific accountancy formula. It does not necessarily reflect the
real world slide into obsolescence (e.g. the unforeseen invention of a new
technology that makes certain assets obsolete overnight).
The major problem with relying on PBV is the indeterminacy of the
notion of value.Patents and other intangibles such as copyrights and brands
can be given a value only when placed up for auction to test the market.Yet
another complication is that companies tend to deal with intangibles in a
variety of ways.They can write them off entirely or in part and do so over a
period or straight away. Some even revalue their intangibles in their balance
sheets.
Even tangibles can be difficult to value in abstract. Plant can soon become
outdated and/or may be idiosyncratic to the business and therefore of little
value on the open market. Book values are notoriously subjective. So
approach with caution.
HOT TIP
The upshot is that PBV is not the most reliable comparable to use when
assessing competing stocks. But you can adopt a general rule: dont buy a
share at a price above its book value.
Price to cash flow (PCF) ratio: the value of stock relative to the level of
cash flow.
Cash flow represents the amount of money a company generates in a year.
Its not the profits (i.e. revenues after expenses) generated in a year, so you
could be pedantic and argue that its not strictly speaking a measure of how
well a business is doing.Its the amount of money generated by the company
as it went about its business. In short, how much cash it had to hand to pay
its expenses.
PCF is calculated by dividing market capitalization by
cash flow. This is often represented by a cash flow statement, as required by the Accounting Standards Board.This
The term cash flow
statement categorizes different cash streams by economic
source. For example, there will be a heading for net cash
conjures up images of
inflow from operating activities this figure must be reconcirculation the
ciled with operating profits.The other entries will include
circulation of blood
ups and downs in stocks, debt levels and credit levels.
The term cash flow conjures up images of circulation
around the body.
the circulation of blood around the body and thats a
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handy way to think of it: as a sign of the companys health.A company with
high cash flow has plenty of money circulating to pay its expenses.A company with low cash flow may have to borrow money or sell assets to meet
its costs.
So what are we looking for in a price to cash flow ratio? A high PCF
reflects that cash flow is low in comparison with share price. Ideally we are
looking for a company with a low ratio relative to that of other companies.
But we also want to see a cash flow that is rising from year to year. Be particularly wary of a company with a PCF higher than its price to earnings ratio
be sure to look into why this is so.
However, PCF does not tell you how strong that cash flow is; all it reflects
is the relative position of the share price.
HOT TIPS
Ignore P/B ratios; go for low P/S, P/E and P/CF ratios.
Low ratios mean good VFM.
Exercises
1 The significance of a very low price-earnings ratio must:
a be that the share price is a bargain investment as it will go up;
b be that the share price is overvalued;
c depend on other specific factors as well but may suggest well-valued
shares;
d mean the company is experiencing poor growth in earnings.
2 PEG shows:
a the value of the price-earnings ratio divided by the value of the companys
assets;
b the value of the stock relative to earnings;
c the value of stock relative to the cash (liquid assets) generated by the company;
d the value of the price-earnings ratio divided by the future growth rate of
earnings per share.
3 Ideally we are looking for PEGs of about:
a less than one;
b between one and two;
c greater than the price to earnings ratio;
d greater than five.
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4 The P/CF ratio is:
a price of the stock relative to the cash revenue minus costs;
b price of the stock relative to the money generated from selling the companys product;
c price of the stock relative to the cash generated (liquid assets) of the company;
d price of the stock relative to the total value of assets clear of debts of the
company.
5 The P/S ratio is:
a price of the share relative to total earnings;
b price of the share relative to securities;
c price of the share relative to the total stock of assets;
d price of the share relative to revenue generated from selling the companys
product/s.
Answers
1 c, 2 d, 3 a, 4 c, 5 d.
What you have learned
Valuation ratios tell us whether were getting value for money for our shares.
They work by comparing the share price to the companys earnings, its sales, its
book value, and the level of its cash flow.
Price to earnings ratios compare the share price to company earnings,
thereby telling us whether were paying too much for our shares given the
amount the company is earning or too little.
Some companies dont have earnings, so we work out the value for money
of our shares by comparing the price to the amount of sales the company is generating. This is the price to sales ratio.
The price to book ratio compares the share price to the amount of money
the company would have left after it liquidated, sold all its assets and paid all its
debts.
The price to cash flow ratio compares the share price to the amount of
money the company generates, i.e. the amount it has to pay its bills and running costs.
Exercises
1 What is the difference between price to earnings ratio and price to sales
ratio?
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2 Compare the price to earnings ratio and price to sales ratio of five companies
in the same industry.
3 In what situation would a price to sales ratio tell us more than a price to earnings ratio?
In the last point we touched briefly on cash flow and with good reason.
Cash flow, along with net income, offers a whole new vista of information,
one thats too big to cover just in a footnote on valuation ratios. Its a different kind of information too if the key to valuation ratios is knowing how
to compare figures, the key to cash flow is how to read between the lines.
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Picking stocks based
on cash is king
MODULE
Cash flow and net income
Cash flow and net income figures examine the amount of money a company
generates as it goes about its business. As we discovered in the previous
module, cash flow represents the total amount of money a company generates. From this money it has to pay all its bills and expenses.The amount left
over represents the companys profits or, to use a more precise term, its net
income.
Net income: total revenues minus expenses incurred.
In other words, how much money a company gets to keep after all its bills
have been paid.
This sounds like a pretty foolproof way of finding out how well a company is doing.After all,this isnt abstract,on-paper profits.This is a real-world,
how much money have we really made? statistic.
But theres a catch: its an annual figure.And not all capital spending yields
results by the end of the financial year. Suppose a manufacturer decides to
expand its production base by building a $10 million factory. When we come to calculate the net income for that
year, we will be deducting a whopping $10 million
What we need to do is
builders bill not a good year for profits. But the next year
try to match revenue
the new factory is up and running, and doubling production. Profits that year are high and continue to be high for
as closely as possible
the rest of the decade.Theyre high because that $10 milwith the expenses
lion bill has already been accounted in the first years net
incurred to generate it
income. But on paper it looks like one bad year for profits
followed by nine pretty-darned-good ones.
(link cause and effect).
What we need to do is try to match revenue as closely as
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possible with the expenses incurred to generate it (link cause and effect). In
this case, we spread the cost of the factory evenly across the decade, paying
it off at $1 million a year.We call this kind of evenly spread expense a depreciation charge (depreciation refers to payments for assets; if it was another,
non-asset-related expense, we would call it an amortization charge). By
spreading the cost like this, we can now get a more accurate picture of how
profitable the company has been.
Cash flow: net income after youve added back non-cash depreciation and
amortization charges.
A companys ability to pay its investors dividends is determined by its
profitability officially. But in truth, cash flow is the key factor. Cash flow
is the key measure of a companys capacity to fund loan repayments,
capital expenditure and dividend payments.
What does cash flow represent? The amount of free cash a company has,
say, to pay in dividends or use to make other investments.Well, almost.Weve
added back the depreciation charges and amortization charges we subtracted,but other costs are subtracted when we calculate net income,such as
non-operating cash outlays, capital spending and dividend payments. Ideally
we want to put that money back too and come up with a purer form of cash
flow
Free cash flow: cash flow after youve added back non-operating cash
outlays, capital spending and dividend payments.
So now we really have got the amount of money the companys operations
generated in a given year its capacity to generate cash. But what does it tell
us?
Net income shows how much a company has made in
profits, i.e. after it has paid its expenses. These expenses
Net income shows how include production costs, payment of dividends and capital
investment. But we dont know how the company paid
much a company has
these expenses.Free cash flow gives us a clue as to whether
made in profits, i.e.
the company was able to generate enough money to pay for
after it has paid its
these things internally, or whether it had to sell equity
(which will dilute your holdings), borrow money, sell
expenses.
assets, or use its working capital more efficiently.
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But who cares? Surely profits are the surest mark of success? Not necessarily. Suppose two rival companies in the same industry announce similar
profits. Externally theres not much difference except when we take a look
at free cash flow. Here we find that one is able to pay its expenses through
the cash it generates as a business (i.e. it has high cash flow) while the other
goes to the bank or sells off assets to pay its bills (low cash flow). Both companies are making the same amount of profit, but we might assume that the
first one is healthier.
Remember, we arent looking to make a fast buck, were looking to invest
in a company with potential for growth. Health is the watchword here.
Better a modest, steady, growing company than one that achieves profits by
burning the candle at both ends.
It helps if we can take a closer look at cash flow, though, to see whether
the company is using it wisely. Market Guide does that for us with its statement of cash flow table (Table 8.1).
TA B L E 8 . 1
Market Guides statement of cash flow table
Annual
Year to date
12 months
ending
31/12/98
12 months
ending
31/12/99
12 months
ending
31/12/00
9 months
ending
30/09/00
9 months
ending
30/09/01
Net income
Deprn & amortn
Non-cash items
Other operating CF
Total operating CF
1,427,300
709,000
4,200
164,100
2,296,200
1,572,600
742,900
32,900
112,600
2,461,000
1,642,500
793,800
110,700
116,700
2,442,300
1,231,600
557,000
0
68,400
1,720,200
1,201,600
648,300
0
147,500
1,997,400
Capital expenditures
Other investing CF
Total investing CF
2,063,700
45,300
2,109,000
2,375,300
195,000
2,570,300
2,111,200
106,000
2,217,200
1,444,000
102,200
1,546,200
1,350,100
50,100
1,400,200
226,500
314,500
445,100
63,600
32,300
232,000
599,900
779,300
157,000
104,400
247,700
1,113,100
1,001,500
145,700
213,600
184,300
568,400
415,000
146,000
193,700
179,500
1,049,100
390,100
204,200
634,300
Exchange rate effect
Net change in cash
154,900
4,900
11,500
19,700
37,100
Dividend paid
Sale of stock
Net borrowings
Other financing CF
Total financing CF
(Note: units in thousands of US dollars)
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Yes I know what a lot
of numbers. But dont
panic.
Yes I know what a lot of numbers. But dont panic.The
columns across the page speak for themselves: the first
three cover successive years; the last two cover successive
nine-monthly periods (with a three-month gap between
them).The rest of the chart is divided into four sections:
Operating: this tells us how a companys basic business is performed.
Investing: this tells us how the company is investing its money for the future
(capital expenditure, acquisitions).
Financing: this shows whether the company is borrowing money or if it
issued or repurchased shares to raise cash.
Net change in cash: this shows the net effects of what a company
generates in operations, spends to invest for the future, how it finances
itself, and the impact of foreign currency adjustments.
Fairly simple then (although that last section is a bit of a mouthful!).But what
are we looking for on this chart? First, we have to do some arithmetic: we
want to add net income to depreciation and amortization (both in section
one).Then we want to add capital expenditures (section two) to dividend
payments (section three).This gives us two figures.Were looking for a company in which the first figure (net income + depreciation and amortization)
is greater than the second (capital expenditures + dividend payments).
If a company has this then it has free cash flow. If it has free cash flow, it
can finance both its growth and its dividend payments from internal sources.
If it doesnt have free cash flow then (at the risk of repeating myself) it may
have to sell equity, borrow money, sell assets or use its working capital more
efficiently.
The question is, which sources did it use to finance its growth and dividend payments? Here are some clues to look out for:
positive and growing cash from operations;
large and growing capital expenditures a sign that the company is
investing in its future;
A negative number
next to net borrowings
is usually another good
sign it shows that a
debt has been paid.
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repurchase of stock is represented by a negative number
this is a good sign. The sale of stock is represented by a
positive number; this is usually a bad sign unless the
company is experiencing rapid growth and needs
additional equity capital;
a negative number next to net borrowings is usually
another good sign it shows that a debt has been paid.
But taking on a debt can also be a good sign if it is done
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by a profitable company with low financial leverage.
However, if the company is a highly leveraged one, it
could be dangerous.
HOT TIP
Rising net income is good, but look for strong cash flow, repurchasing of
stock by the company, rising capital expenditure and negative net borrowing, i.e. high investment, low debts and plenty of money for growth.
Net gearing: the ratio between what a company owes and what it owns,
the companys borrowings and its capitalization.
Cash may be king, but excessive gearing brings home the value of a constitutional monarchy.Too much cash can be a threat to a companys survival.
Highly geared companies are more vulnerable to changes in interest rates
and to sudden recessions or industrial action. The reason is simple they
tend to be operating at a maximum level of commitment.As a rule, be wary
of any company with net gearing over 50%.Analysts calculate net gearing by
comparing the total borrowings less cash as a percentage of shareholders
funds, including intangibles such as brand names and goodwill. Remember
that cash figures dont include marketable securities because these can be
difficult to convert into cash at short notice.
Do consider gearing in the context of the companys business plans. If
interest rates are low, a well-managed company can make good use of its
debts.
Exercises
1 If a company has free cash flow it can finance growth from internal sources,
otherwise it has to sell equity, sell assets or borrow. A company has free
cash flow, properly defined if:
a capital expenditure is less than net income + dividend payments +
depreciation + amortization;
b net income is greater than capital expenditure +
dividend payments + depreciation + amortization;
Too much cash can be
c capital expenditure + dividend payments is less than
net income + depreciation + amortization;
a threat to a companys
d net income + dividend payments is greater than capital
survival.
expenditure + depreciation + amortization.
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2 Analysts calculate net gearing by comparing the total borrowings less cash
as a percentage of shareholders funds, including intangibles such as brand
names and goodwill. Which one of the following is important when
considering net gearing?
a Interest rates.
b New projects by the firm.
c Management expertise.
d How much borrowing the company has undertaken.
e All the above.
3 Under the sale of stock, the repurchasing of stock is measured by a:
a
b
c
d
negative number and is a bad sign;
positive number and is a bad sign;
negative number and is a good sign;
positive number and is a bad sign.
Answers
1 c, 2 e, 3 c.
What you have learned
Net income represents the profits a company has left after it has paid all its
expenses. Among those expenses we include depreciation and amortization
charges so that profits always appear relative to the drop in income incurred to
achieve them.
If we add back the non-cash depreciation charges and amortization charges
we just subtracted, we get cash flow. And if we add back non-operating cash
outlays, capital spending and dividend payments we get free cash flow the
amount of money a company generates in a year.
Free cash flow shows us how much money a company has to pay its
expenses, which in turn shows us its health and potential for growth. Were
looking for a company with high cash flow relative to its rivals, and a cash flow
that is rising steadily year by year.
All in all were using cash flow to tell us not how well a company performed
but how well it will perform; whether it has the potential for the kind of growth
were looking for.
The net gearing of a company may indicate a number of things, but as a rule
you should find out why a company is highly geared before you invest, particularly if interest rates are high, because servicing the debt could cause considerable strain.
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Exercises
1 Define cash flow.
2 What is the difference between cash flow and net income?
3 What does the level of cash flow indicate about the way a company might be
paying its costs?
Share-related items
Share-related items (see Table 7.1) give us a little more background on the
shares themselves.They tell us how many shares were issued, how many are
owned by the company, its employees and owners, how many are realistically available for trading, and what the status of the company is in the
market.
Share-related items
Market capital (mil.) $
Shares out (mil.)
Float (mil.)
59,029.73
1,353.12
1,339.60
To make sense of this table, were going to start with the second entry (the
reason for this will soon become apparent).
Shares outstanding: the number of shares issued by a company less the
amount the company bought back.
When a company issues shares, it often buys some back for itself. Shares outstanding is the amount of shares left after this deduction has been made
the amount of shares that arent held by the company.
Float: The number of shares held by everybody other than officers,
directors and 5% or more owners.
If you take shares outstanding and deduct the shares held by the companys
officers, directors and owners, you get the float.The thing to remember here
is that if the float is small, theres probably little trading
volume so anyone looking to buy or sell stock could impact
the price significantly (as in the case of a company with a
When a company
low ADV).
Market capitalization: the current price of a stock
multiplied by the number of shares outstanding.
MODULE 8
issues shares, it often
buys some back for
itself.
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Unsurprisingly, large
cap companies tend to
represent a safer, more
conservative
investment.
TA B L E 8 . 2
Basically,this is the value that investors have assigned to the
company by the act of purchasing stock in that company.
Its often referred to as the size of the stock because it
refers to the status of the company.The larger the market
capitalization, the wealthier and more powerful the company, i.e. the larger the company.
Like the average daily volume of stocks, market capitalization is divided into different levels (see Table 8.2). The
larger the market cap,the higher the liquidity and the lower
the risk.
Levels of market capitalization
Level
Size of capitalization
Large cap
Mid cap
Small cap
Micro cap
greater than $5 billion
between $1 billion and $5 billion
between $300 million and $1 billion
below $300 million
Unsurprisingly, large cap companies tend to represent a safer, more conservative investment.The smaller cap ones are therefore riskier investments.
But smaller cap companies tend to outperform their larger counterparts
over a given period of time. Since both types offer benefits, a shrewd trader
will go for a mixture of micro and large cap companies.
HOT TIP
Buy micro and large cap companies to balance potential losses. Tread carefully if the float is small.
Exercises
1 The float is:
a the number of shares issued by a company less the amount the company
bought back;
b the number of shares held by everybody other than officers, directors
and 5% or more owners;
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c the current price of a stock multiplied by the amount of shares
outstanding;
d how much money a company has to pay its expenses.
2 A company with a market cap of $700 million can be regarded as:
a
b
c
d
a large cap;
a mid cap;
a small cap;
a micro cap.
3 The larger the capitalization:
a
b
c
d
the higher the liquidity and the higher the risk;
the lower the liquidity and the lower the risk;
the lower the liquidity and the higher the risk;
the higher the liquidity and the lower the risk.
4 The shares outstanding are:
a the number of shares issued by a company less the amount the company
bought back;
b the number of shares held by everybody other than officers, directors
and 5% or more owners;
c the current price of a stock multiplied by the amount of shares
outstanding;
d how much money a company has to pay its expenses.
Answers
1 b, 2 c, 3 d, 4 a.
What you have learned
Shares outstanding shows us the amount of shares that arent held by the
company the amount left to the rest of us to trade with.
Float is the amount of shares on the market that arent owned either by company directors, company officers or company owners (those who own 5% or
more of the company).
Market capitalization represents the price of the stock multiplied by the
amount of shares outstanding. It shows us the size of the stock, i.e. the wealth
and power of the company, its liquidity, and its risk. The larger the market cap,
the higher the liquidity and the lower the risk. The smaller the market cap, the
lower the liquidity and the higher the risk.
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Exercises
1 In what way does shares outstanding differ from the total amount of shares
issued by a company?
2 What kind of shareholders does float represent, i.e. what are these share-
holders not?
3 Do larger companies have higher or lower liquidity?
4 What is the implication of this for the stock?
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Picking stocks based on dividends,
management effectiveness
and profitability
MODULE
Dividend information
When you purchase stock, you are essentially giving money to a company so
that it can operate.Your share certificate acts as a receipt for this.As the company goes about its business, this money will help it to generate more
money,so that in a sense your money is earning interest.That interestis then
paid back to you, the shareholder, on an annual basis.This is your dividend.
Dividend information
Yield %
Annual dividend
Payout ratio (TTM) %
0.46
0.20
87.43
Annual dividend: the amount of dividends you would expect to receive if
you held the stock for a year and there was no change in the companys
payment.
In loose terms, this means the amount the company would pay you, the
shareholder, per year (the figure is derived from the current quarterly dividend payment projected forward for four quarters).What are we looking for?
The truth is ambiguous.The knee-jerk response would be a
high dividend. But were growth investors, and generally a
growth company will reinvest its dividend rather than pay
When you purchase
it out to investors. And since growth companies are what
were looking for, a lower annual dividend may be the most
stock, you are
tempting.
essentially giving
Yield: the annual dividend rate expressed as a percentage
of the price of the stock.
money to a company
so that it can operate.
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The more favoured
companies are subject
to the whims of massmarket attention
whims that are
essentially overreactions to good or
bad news.
This tells you how much income you can expect per $ or
investment in this stock, which means you can compare it
with similar stock.What are we looking for high yield or
low yield? As with annual dividend,it depends on what kind
of investor you are. We happen to be looking for growth
companies, so that may suggest low-yield companies.
However, the truth can often be argued both ways.
High-yield portfolios often outperform the market on a
total return basis. This is because they are often less
favoured companies. The more favoured companies are
subject to the whims of mass-market attention whims
that are essentially over-reactions to good or bad news.
This drives up the prices of growth shares to exorbitant
level. The less popular shares are left at lower, more consistent and arguably
fairer prices.
Another reason why high-yielding shares can perform well is that dividends
have, historically, accounted for 4050% of the total return on the Dow.
This means a higher annual payout represents a considerable cumulative
benefit to investors. But the benefits can be seen in the UK as well. The
BZW 1994 Equity-Gilt study revealed that dividends had amounted to 42%
of the total return on equities over the previous 75 years. And dividend
yield is a more reliable investment return than, say, share growth which is
based on potentially highly fluctuating earnings figures.
High dividend-yielding stocks are also a good bet because they provide a
large dividend income in addition to the potential capital gain. This cash
could be reinvested.
There are compelling reasons for buying shares in high-yielding companies.
But as with any investment, things can go down as well as up.When interest
rates fall, investors look to preserve their income streams and, correspondingly, high dividend-yielding companies do well. But its a bad idea to seek
out high-yield shares just because they seem high yield. High yield may just
reflect market fears that the dividend rate may be cut.To be on the safe side,
its best to avoid companies whose dividends are very poorly covered or for
any other reason seem likely to be reduced.
Here are some key things to bear in mind when weighing up the risk of
dividend cut.
1 Poorly covered dividends are more likely to be cut.
2 Cash flow per share is a better forecast of dividend capacity than profits.
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3 Watch out for heavy borrowing companies even if profitable they may not
be able to pay dividends.
HOT TIP
In sum, a company with strong dividend cover, high cash flow per share
and net cash is more likely to pay out higher dividends and less likely to cut
them.
Payout ratio: the percentage of company earnings given to shareholders
(as cash dividends) over the past 12 months.
Again, growth is our criterion so were looking for a company that reinvests
rather than pays out its dividend.And that means a low payout ratio.That may
seem like a funny approach given that were potential shareholders why
go for a company that pays us less? Why, because were equity traders. We
look at the big picture.We look to the future.We look at growth.
HOT TIP
Go for a low yield and low payout ratio profits are, perhaps, being
invested, not given to shareholders, which means company growth.
Exercises
1 The dividend yield is:
a the amount of dividends you would expect to receive if you held the
stock for a year and there was no change in the companys payment;
b the amount of dividends you would expect to receive if you held the
stock for a year expressed as a percentage of the price of the stock;
c the percentage of company earnings given to
shareholders (as cash dividends) over the past year;
d none of the above.
2 The payout ratio is:
a the amount of dividends you would expect to receive if
you held the stock for a year and there was no change
in the companys payment;
b the amount of dividends you would expect to receive if
MODULE 9
We look at the big
picture. We look to the
future. We look at
growth.
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you held the stock for a year expressed as a percentage of the price of
the stock;
c the percentage of company earnings given to shareholders (as cash
dividends) over the past year;
d none of the above.
3 Which of the following is a good reason for going to low dividend-yield
shares?
a Low yield suggests that the company is undervalued as the price is very
low relative to the dividend payout.
b Historically low-yield shares have outperformed the market on a total
return basis.
c Low yield suggests the company is reinvesting profit in the company.
d Low-yield shares have a higher annual payout and this suggests a higher
cumulative benefit.
Answers
1 b, 2 c, 3 c.
What you have learned
Annual dividend is an estimate of how much money a company will pay us,
per year, for every share we hold. Yield tells us how big that dividend is compared with the price of the stock, i.e. how profitable it is for us.
Payout ratio shows us how much of its earnings the company is giving us
and how much its keeping to reinvest in its business. The more it keeps for
investment, the greater the possibility of future growth.
Exercises
1 Define dividend.
2 What is the difference between annual dividend and yield?
3 Why might a company keep most of its earnings instead of passing them on
to the shareholder?
4 And why might this be a good sign?
By now you should be finding these tables easier to read.The fog is lifting.
This is another simple table,as is the one that follows.But dont race through
it because it seems easier to understand the information it contains is no
less important for that.
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Management effectiveness
This table shows not so much how the company is performing as how the
people who run it are performing the management.
Management effectiveness
Return on equity (TTM) %
Return on assets (TTM) %
Return on investment (TTM) %
17.34
8.30
9.45
Return on equity: how well a company has managed the equity (capital)
given to it by the shareholders.
Equity is that portion of the companys assets that would be distributed to
the shareholders if the company were liquidated and all its assets were sold
at values reflected on its balance sheets. In short, what the company itself
and therefore the shareholders own (as opposed to, say, money loaned
from a bank).
Return on investment: how well a company has managed the money
provided by the companys owners (equity) and long-term creditors.
This sounds not unlike return on equity, but there is a difference return on
equity relates to capital provided by shareholders. The problem with this
figure is that the company has other sources of money at its disposal too, so
this doesnt give a complete picture of how the management is handling
funds.
Return on assets: how well a company is using everything at its disposal
(equity, long-term credit and temporary capital) to produce profits.
This is much better.Its the best measure of how a company
is using the funds provided to it, for obvious reasons it
includes everything the management have at their fingertips. For instance, as well as shareholder capital and longterm money granted to it, a company has access to
shorter-term loans of capital, e.g. an internet company may
borrow money to buy some routers for its website money
provided on a short-term (i.e. less than one year) basis.
Return on capital employed (ROCE): the percentage of
pre-tax operating profit relative to capital invested
(employed) in that year.
MODULE 9
Its the best measure
of how a company is
using the funds
provided to it, for
obvious reasons it
includes everything the
management have at
their fingertips.
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The higher the ROCE, the greater the companys competitive advantage.
Companies with a high ROCE provide the market with something that can
command a high return with correspondingly above-average margins.
Its best to compare ROCE levels of different companies within the same
sector rather than looking to the whole market. But dont assume that a high
ROCE necessarily means best.A high ROCE figure can mean that a companys
products will face excessive competition and find it difficult to sustain previous levels. But of course a low ROCE suggests the company may be in
danger of making a loss.
A companys ROCE should always be compared with the current cost of
borrowing.
Its also worth bearing in mind that low ROCE companies often face
changes in management control and this often leads to a rights issue. Any
new management will be tested by its ability to lift the ROCE percentage.A
high ROCE has the attraction of meaning that a higher than average amount
of profit can be reinvested for the benefit of shareholders. This reinvested
money is then employedagain at an even higher rate of ROCE and this helps
to boost continued EPS growth.This is why, when you look at consistently
good growth stocks, they usually share a high ROCE.
HOT TIP
Look at high return on assets this means management knows how to use
your cash wisely.
Exercises
1 The return on investment can be defined as:
a how well a company has managed the money provided by the
companys owners (equity) and long-term creditors;
b how well a company has managed the equity (capital) given to it by the
shareholders;
c percentage of pre-tax operating profit relative to capital invested
(employed) in that year;
d how well a company is using everything at its disposal (equity, long-term
credit and temporary capital) to produce profits.
2 The return on assets can be defined as:
a how well a company has managed the money provided by the
companys owners (equity) and long-term creditors;
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b how well a company has managed the equity (capital) given to it by the
shareholders;
c how well a company is using everything at its disposal (equity, long-term
credit and temporary capital) to produce profits;
d percentage of pre-tax operating profit relative to capital invested
(employed) in that year.
Answers
1 a, 2 c.
What you have learned
Management effectiveness tells us how well a company is using the money
at its disposal how profitable it has been with it. The table reveals this by breaking down the money into different types and seeing how each one is being
used.
Return on equity shows how well the company has been using the money
given to it by shareholders.
Return on investment shows how well the company has used the money
given to it by its owners and long-term creditors.
Return on assets shows how well the company has been using all the
money given to it by shareholders, owners and long-term creditors as well as
other kinds of money not included in the first two figures, such as short-term
loans.
Return on capital employed shows the percentage of pre-tax operating
profit relative to capital invested (employed) in that year. Its best to compare
ROCE levels of different companies within the same sector rather than looking to
the whole market. But dont assume that a high ROCE necessarily means best.
Exercises
1 What is the difference between return on equity and return on investment?
2 Which of the four figures is the most comprehensive, and why? (Return on
equity, return on investment, return on assets and return on capital
employed.)
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Profitability
The ratios on this table show you how much of the companys revenue is
being turned into profit. This sounds simple: profit equals revenue minus
costs, right? But there are different kinds of costs, and these ratios follow the
effects on revenue as each of these costs is subtracted from it to reach that
final profit figure.
Profitability
Gross margin (TTM) %
Operating margin (TTM) %
Net margin (TTM) %
36.16
23.20
12.48
Gross margin: the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after
deducting the direct costs that went into producing the good or services
involved.
Revenue is the amount of money a company gets for selling its goods and/or
services. Gross profit is the amount of revenue it has left after it has paid the
direct costs it incurred to produce those goods and services. Gross margin,
then, is a percentage figure that shows the difference between gross profit
and revenue. Lets say that for every dollar of revenue a company earns it
spends 90 cents paying its direct costs.That leaves 10 cents in the dollar. So
its gross margin is 10%.
Operating margin: the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after
deducting the direct and indirect costs that went into producing the good
or services involved.
We subtract the direct costs from revenue to get gross profit.We then subtract the indirect costs from gross profit to get operating profit.Indirect costs
are what we tend to call overheads: costs incurred in running the business
even though they have no direct link to the product and/or service produced.
So, lets go back to our company. Lets say for every dollar
earned it spends 90 cents paying its direct costs and
another 5 cents paying its indirect costs.That leaves 5 cents
Revenue is the
in the dollar. That means its operating margin is 5%. Put
amount of money a
another way, operating margin is the ratio of operating
profit to turnover. Operating profit is a companys trading
company gets for
selling its goods and/or profit before tax and interest. So, a company with an operating profit of $20 million and a turnover of $200 million
services.
has an operating margin of 10%. In most cases, the higher
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the margin the better. Analysts often calculate margins by
omitting capital profits and losses and any other exceptional matters from the operating profit equation.
Net margin: the percentage of each revenue dollar
remaining after deducting all the costs that went into
producing the good or services involved.
Analysts often calculate
margins by omitting
capital profits and
losses and any other
exceptional matters
from the operating
profit equation.
By all the costs we mean that there are other costs besides
indirect costs, for example income taxes and corporate
debt.This time were going to subtract these cost as well as
direct and indirect costs from revenue.We then convert the
amount we have left in cents (our net profit) to a percentage and we have our net margin.
But what are we looking for in these figures? Simple: high margins. High
margins indicate a good profit and, importantly, a healthy growing business.
But a word to the wise
Keep an eye on tax rates too when youre sizing profitability.Tax rates can
affect a companys profits, which is important since not all companies in the
same industry will be paying the same tax rates.For instance,a company may
have losses carried forward or other temporary issues, which means it will
be paying lower tax which in turn means that the taxman isnt cutting so
deeply into profits. However, these will vanish in the future so you may well
expect an eventual drop in profits. So check whether or not your company
is paying a low tax rate.
Note: gross profit tells us how much money wed have left from every
dollar; gross margin tells us what percentage wed have left of every dollar.
Since there are 100 cents in a dollar, and since per cent means in every hundred (Oxford English Dictionary), the figures for gross profits and gross
margin are exactly the same (the same goes for operating profit/operating
margin, and net profit/net margin).
Margins are key to understanding the financial structure of a company
you plan to invest in.They tie up price to sales ratios with price to earnings
ratios.This enables you to see the wood from the trees, for example to place
less emphasis on increased sales figures where margins are falling. Net profit
increases will emerge only when margins are maintained or widened.
HOT TIP
Go for high margins (high profits), but check that this figure isnt artificially
high because the company is paying lower taxes.
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Margins are key to
understanding the
financial structure of a
company you plan to
invest in.
Nevertheless, its important to bear in mind one or two
notes of caution when relying too heavily on margins.
1 The higher the margin, the greater the likelihood of
competition. The best high-margin companies are those
with unique products. This may take the form of a
desirable brand and/or a tightly worded patent.
2 But low margins make for a riskier investment. The
slightest sales dip can mean disaster. On the upside,
however, even a small increase in sales can mean a dramatic increase in
margin.
3 It can be difficult for a company used to low margins to break the trend
once the market gets used to it. For this reason you should be sceptical
about any claims for massive growth from such companies.
4 A major leap in margins can often be put down to a new product or
service. Make sure you are abreast of the latest developments by scouring
the press for snippets of information such as that found in company press
releases.
5 The same applies for changes in management structure as for new products
check the press for the latest news.
Exercises
1 Gross margin is:
a the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting the
direct costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
b the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting all the
costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
c the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting the direct
and indirect costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
d none of the above.
2 Net margin is:
a the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting the
direct costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
b the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting all the
costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
c the percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting the direct
and indirect costs that went into producing the good or services involved;
d none of the above.
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3 Which of the following is false?
a High margins can lead to increased competition.
b Lower margins can lead to reduced risk.
c Lower margins can be the result of higher taxes.
d Lower margins can be the result of changes in management.
Answers
1 a, 2 b, 3 b.
What you have learned
Revenue is the amount of money a company gets for selling its product. To discover how much profit it has made, it has to first deduct its direct costs. This
leaves its gross profit the amount left from every dollar earned.
The company then deducts its indirect costs. This leaves its operating profit.
It then deducts all its remaining costs, for instance its income taxes and corporate debt. This leaves its net profits the final amount left from every dollar
earning.
Gross margin, operating margin and net margin show each of these
figures as a percentage. Through them we get an idea not just of how
profitable a company has been, but in what ways it has been profitable.
Exercises
1 What is the difference between gross profit and gross margin?
2 What is the difference between gross margin and operating margin?
3 Which indicates that the company is in better health: a high margin or a low
margin?
Well, thats the mammoth key ratios and statistics section dealt with. As
youve probably noticed,we started by looking at sources of information that
gave us just the basic facts, like what the recent stock price
is or how much stock is traded in a day (average daily
volume).But since then weve moved on to sources of inforWere slowly building
mation that are more subtle sources, in fact, that seem to
up a company picture
tell us about stock in an indirect way, such what money a
in much the same way
company is using to pay its bills (cash flow) or how effectively its managers are using the money given to them by
that an artist actually
shareholders (return on equity).
paints a picture.
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Were slowly building up a company picture in much the same way that
an artist actually paints a picture, starting with a basic outline, filling in the
background colours, then finally adding the small details.The next module
continues this trend towards a fuller and more detailed picture.
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Picking stocks based
on what the experts
think
MODULE
10
Recommendations
You know how theres always a scene in a detective or spy movie where the
hero announces,Someones been here before us!? Well, in our case another
team has been following the same trail as us.Theyve been sizing up the same
clues and theyve come to their own conclusions.Theyre called professional
securities analysts, and theyve put their conclusions on the recommendation table (Table 10.1).
The vertical columns cover consecutive time periods (working backwards from the present); each horizontal stratum represents different recommendations on the stock: strong buy, buy, hold, underperform, sell.These
terms are universally held sometimes you might see neutral for hold, but
you can always assume that the advisers in question are ranking stock in a
five-step, descending sequence.
TA B L E 1 0 . 1
Analysts recommendations
1 Strong buy
2 Buy
3 Hold
4 Underperform
5 Sell
Mean rating
As of
5/5/2002
As of 4
weeks ago
6
8
7
0
0
2.0
5
7
7
0
0
2.1
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What use is this table to us? This is the experts view, but
dont
treat it as gospel use it as a barometer of opinion
This is the experts
with which to compare your own findings. Note also that
view, but dont treat it
advisers rarely give underperform or sell recommendaas gospel use it as a
tions; they cluster near the top.
The last line of the table is mean rating the weighted
barometer of opinion
average of all the individual ratings. The best score is 1.0
with which to compare
(thats if every analyst says strong buy);the worst would be
your own findings.
5.0. In reality, given the top-range bias, most averages fall
between 1.0 and 3.0. So what are we looking for? Hopefully
companies with low number scores, particularly in relation
to other companies its in making the latter comparison that mean rating
proves really useful.
Have a look across the columns to see whether the stock is getting higher
ratings or improving its mean rating score. A gradual increase in a lesser
known company might show that it has caught Wall Streets attention. On
the other hand, some traders like to hunt for stocks that have fallen out of
favour, so theyre looking for a deteriorating mean rating. A stock that was
deteriorating but that has levelled out in its mean rating could be due for a
revival in fortune.
Bear in mind that even though these are opinions, and may be wrong, the
fact that they are offered by experts means that they do influence investors
an element of self-fulfilling prophecy.
HOT TIP
Listen to what the analysts say, but dont jump just because they say so.
What you have learned
Recommendations tables show us what professional securities analysts think
we should do with stock. These recommendations are shown through five ratings strong buy, buy, hold, underperform and sell which in turn are shown
for a given period so that we can see whether they have been revised.
Mean rating gives the average of all the ratings, ranging from 1.0 to 5.0.
The lower the rating, the better the score, i.e. the more strongly you are advised
to buy.
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Exercises
1 Whose advice does the recommendations table show?
2 The figures on this particular table indicate that we should purchase stock.
Has this urging grown stronger or weaker over the past month?
3 Which is better: a higher mean rating or a lower one?
Performance
If recommendations tell you what the experts think,performance shows you
how the stock is competing relative to the major indices and the industry it
is in a look at the bigger picture.
Performance often appears on sites in the form of graphs so you can get
an instant feel for a company, but Market Guide also offers a price performance table, as seen in Table 10.2.
The table shows the stocks percentage price movements over each of
five measurement periods: 4 weeks, 13 weeks, 26 weeks, 52 weeks and the
year to date. Across the page are four columns. Lets examine each one in
turn.
TA B L E 1 0 . 2
Price performance
Period
Actual (%)
S&P 500 (%)
4-week
13-week
26-week
52-week
YTD
5.2
8
7
0
0
1.1
7
7
0
0
(Note: rank is a percentile that ranges from 0 to 99, with 99 = best)
Actual (%): this shows the stocks overall performance, so
large percentage changes are going to catch your eye.
S&P 500 (%): this is a comparison of the stocks price
activity with that of the S&P 500 index. The percentage
shows the degree to which the stocks performance
differed from that of the index.
MODULE 10
Performance often
appears on sites in the
form of graphs so you
can get an instant feel
for a company.
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Rank in industry: this shows how the stock performed relative to the
average performance for a company in the same industry. The number
shows what percentage of companies in the same industry the stock
outperformed (so if it says 71, as it does here, our company outperformed
71% of its rivals). Sometimes this is referred to as the percentile rank.
Industry rank: this reveals how the industry the company is in performed
compared with the other industries covered at Market Guide. The figure
shows what percentage of the industries it outperformed; in this case
64%.
How does this table help us? Recommendations tell us what the experts
think its opinion based but performance gives us a simple just the facts
look at how well a company is competing.Since it shows the company in the
context of the market and the industry, it doesnt really tell us much about
its internal workings in the way that valuation ratios, net income or cash
flow do. Its really there to place the company in a wider context.
What are we looking for? Again, youve guessed it: growth. That means
were looking for companies that lead the market in terms of performance.
HOT TIP
Look for growth in all four categories if possible.
Exercises
1 Which one of the following is the industry rank?
a This shows the stocks overall performance, so large percentage changes
are going to catch your eye. This is a comparison of the stocks price
activity with that of the S&P 500 index.
b The percentage shows the degree to which the stocks performance
differed from that of the index.
c This reveals how the industry the company is in performed compared
with the other industries covered at Market Guide. The figure shows
what percentage of the industries it outperformed.
d This shows how the stock performed relative to the average performance
for a company in the same industry. The number shows what percentage
of companies in the same industy it outperformed.
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2 Which one of the following is the percentile rank?
a This shows the stocks overall performance, so large percentage changes
are going to catch your eye. This is a comparison of the stocks price
activity with that of the S&P 500 index.
b The percentage shows the degree to which the stocks performance
differed from that of the index.
c This reveals how the industry the company is in performed compared with
the other industries covered at Market Guide. The figure shows what
percentage of the industries it outperformed.
d This shows how the stock performed relative to the average performance
for a company in the same industry. The number shows what percentage
of companies in the same industry it outperformed.
Answers
1 c, 2 d.
What you have learned
Performance figures judge the companys performance in four contexts: actual
shows how well it is performing overall; S&P 500 shows how well it is performing in relation to the S&P 500 index; rank in industry shows how well it is performing against its business rivals; and industry rank shows how well its
industry is performing against other industries. These figures place the company
in the bigger picture.
Exercises
1 Which of these figures gives us the biggest overview actual S&P 500, rank in
industry or industry rank?
2 What is the difference between rank in industry and industry rank?
Institutional ownership
Institutional ownership can be seen as a sister table to recommendations.
Both give us the experts opinion of the stocks value: recommendations
shows us directly, by the extent to which professional securities analysts
think we should buy, hold or sell stocks; institutional ownership shows us
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If an institution is
buying into a small
company, it could be
that it has spotted a
potential for growth.
indirectly,by the extent to which financial institutions,such
as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies,
have themselves purchased stocks in a company.
% shares owned
69.77
# of institutions
1,556
Total shares held (mil.)944,064
3 monthly net purchases (mil.)
118,945
3 monthly shares purchased (mil.) 192,377
3 monthly shares sold (mil.) 73,432
Institutional ownership: the amount of a companys stock held by
financial institutions.
Institutional ownership tables tell us what percentage of stock has been
bought by financial institutions, how many different institutions own that
stock, and how many shares this adds up to.
So why should we care? What do financial institutions know that other
traders dont? Probably quite a bit. First off, they have a lot of money, a lot of
expertise at their fingertips and they dont like to gamble, so if theyve
bought stock in a company we ought to take a closer look. Second, theres
the size of the company to take into account. If an institution is buying into
a small company, it could be that it has spotted a potential for growth. Institutions can bring the glare of the spotlight with them, so other traders and
institutions will take notice and the company stock may well rise. Of course,
if the institutional ownership is high it may be too late to take advantage of
that stock rise.And theres the rub: yes, institutional ownership shows that
the company has potential, but we only know that because said institution
has already bought up shares which means the company is no longer quite
the bargain for us.
Of course, institutions dont rush these things they may have more
money than us but theyre no less cautious,which gives us an advantage.Ideally its good to look for a company that is between 5% and 20% owned by
institutions.That indicates that there is more than a passing interest in the
company, but that institutional interest has yet to mushroom (if, of course, it
does nothing is certain).
HOT TIP
Check the % shares owned entry and look for 520%.
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Exercises
1 What is an institution?
2 When an institution buys shares in a company, what is the likely effect on
growth will it improve or decline?
What you have learned
Institutional ownership tables refer to financial institutions. They show us
what percentage of the companys shares are held by institutions, how many different institutions hold those shares, and what the total amount of those shares
is. From the level of institutional interest, we can get a clue to the growth potential of the company.
Insider trading
Investment securities analysts have a shrewd idea as to whether a company
is worth investing in, and financial institutions are no slouches either. But
theres one source that has the edge on them: the company itself.
Net insider trades
# Buy transactions
# Sell transactions
Net shares purchased (mil.)
# Shares purchased (mil.)
# Shares sold (mil.)
6
0
6
0.405
0.000
0.405
Insider trading: the level of buying and selling of shares
by the companys executive and senior officers.
Obviously, the company isnt going to share its deepest
hopes and fears with us. But the amount of shares its executives are buying or selling can give us a clue to future
developments. Buying can indicate that the company has
good prospects after all, its employees are reducing the
diversification of their personal assets by making these
purchases. Holding too can be a good sign, for the same reasons.
But then insiders could be buying stock because its
going cheap after a slump an act of loyalty or perhaps an
attempt to jump-start the stock price and reverse a down-
MODULE 10
Buying can indicate that
the company has good
prospects after all, its
employees are reducing
the diversification of
their personal assets by
making these
purchases.
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Insider trading can be
ambiguous. It helps if
you have some other
information, be it from
performance or
recommendations, to
put it in context and
clarify it.
turn.Then there is also the chance that theyve got an overoptimistic view of the companys future. Equally, selling
generally hints that troubles are ahead. But often it may
simply indicate that employees want to convert part of
their compensations (their stock options) into ready cash,
a decision that has little to do with the health of the company.
The upshot of this? Insider trading can be ambiguous.
It helps if you have some other information, be it from
performance or recommendations, to put it in context and
clarify it.Treat it the same way you treat analyst recommendations:as a useful second opinion rather than gospel truth.
HOT TIP
Check up on this by all means, but take it with a pinch of salt.
Exercises
1 Define insider trading.
2 When might a high level of purchasing be a bad sign?
What you have learned
Insider trading shows us the extent to which the companys own officers are
buying and selling shares. Buying generally indicates a healthy future for the
company, while selling generally indicates that hard times are ahead but this
isnt always the case.
Earnings estimates
A company issues announcements of its earnings every quarter.These earnings are a prime source of information for traders,much more than being just
a gauge of the companys profits. In fact, analysts issue predictions of what
these announcements will say. These predictions or rather, the disparity
between them and the actual figures announced can be as revealing about
the stock as the companys own statistics.
If an earnings announcement has just been made, a site like Market Guide
will include it in its snapshot report. If it does, our information is straight off
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the presses. If not, our main source of information remains
the companys earnings estimate report (Table 10.3,p.136).
As you can see,it takes the form of a large table a bit daunting perhaps, but as you look closer you will see that its
broken up into sections.
Expected earnings announcements: the date on which
a company issues an official statement detailing its
earnings.
Just the anticipation
of an earnings
announcement can
affect stock, causing
price activity.
Earnings announcements can affect stock in two ways: by what they say
about earnings, and by the anticipation generated within the financial community over what they might say. Just the anticipation of an earnings
announcement can affect stock, causing price activity. Fortunately, the company compares the data it is preparing with analysts projections. If there is
a marked discrepancy, it will issue a written statement and conference call
beforehand to tell the financial community that the announcement proper
is likely to differ from expectations.
Sometimes a pre-announcement statement can itself be pre-empted by
large share price movements, especially if accompanied by above-average
trading volume a sign to sharp-eyed traders of changing expectations. Such
traders pay particular attention to stock in the week before release.As should
we.When the announcement does appear, it comes in the form of a written
statement.If earnings meet or exceed expectations,there can be a sell-off followed by an upward trend in stock price as the news spreads throughout the
financial community. If earnings fail to meet expectation, stock price generally falls.The next step is for the company to discuss its results with analysts
from the brokerage houses that follow the company.This can affect the opinion of those financial institutions that have bought stock in the company,
which again can affect stock price.
Stock price can also be influenced if the company issues a flash report
announcing earnings for the last quarter.This is less comprehensive than a
standard earnings announcement and is issued because the company wants
to release its figures early rather than wait for the official date.If the earnings
estimates table includes such a report, it means that the information
on it is much fresher and worthy of greater attention.
Earnings per share estimates: a brokerage houses estimates of a
companys earnings.
The estimates are broken up into six columns across the page: number of
estimates,mean estimate,high estimate,low estimate,standard deviation and
projected price to earnings ratios. The wider the range of estimates, the
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TA B L E 1 0 . 3
Page 144
Earnings estimate report
Expected earnings announcements
Release date
Quarter ending 06/01
Quarter ending 09/01
17/07/2001
18/10/2001
Earnings per share (EPS) estimates
# of
ests.
Mean
est.
High
est.
Low
est.
Std.
est.
Proj.
est.
Quarter ending 06/01
Quarter ending 09/01
Year ending 12/01
Year ending 12/02
12
12
23
16
0.38
0.38
1.41
1.58
0.38
0.40
1.45
1.61
0.37
0.37
1.39
1.52
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.56
0.46
1.79
1.83
Long term growth rate
18
13.58
22.70
10.00
2.98
26.47
Analyst recommendations and revisions
As of
22/04/2001
As of 4
weeks ago
6
8
7
0
0
5
7
7
0
0
2.0
2.1
1 Strong buy
2 Buy
3 Hold
4 Underperform
5 Sell
Mean rating
Quarterly earnings surprise
Estimated vs actual EPS
March 2001
December 2000
September 2000
June 2000
March 2000
Estimate
Actual
Difference
% Surprise
0.29
0.32
0.34
0.33
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.35
0.33
0.24
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.02
3.30
3.10
2.94
0.00
7.70
Historical mean EPS trend
Quarter ending 06/01
Quarter ending 09/01
Year ending 12/01
Year ending 12/02
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22/04/01
As of 4
weeks ago
As of 12
weeks ago
0.38
0.38
1.41
1.58
0.37
0.38
1.41
1.58
0.37
NA
1.41
1.57
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greater the disagreement among analysts; the closer the
range of estimates, the closer the agreement.
The only solution is to
That seems fairly straightforward, but unfortunately
hedge your bets. Think
theres no good and bad here. True, uncertainty tends to
of your whole
indicate greater stock volatility. But certainty can backfire
too if the earnings announced fall short of estimates the
portfolio, your total
shock will be greater and stock will suffer accordingly.The
holdings.
only solution is to hedge your bets. Think of your whole
portfolio, your total holdings. Just as its shrewd to keep a
selection of large and micro cap companies in your portfolio, so it pays to diversify between companies with wide-ranging estimates
and those with close estimates. That way if an earnings shock does take
place, you wont experience a sudden plummet in the price of your holdings.
Here are a few tips:
Note the number of analysts a large number indicates that the estimates
are fairly confident, but a small number may indicate that the company is a
relatively undiscovered one, with stock that may perform well as more
investors become aware of it.
A clue to stock overvaluation can be found by looking at the projected price
to earnings ratios column. If you divide this number by the consensus
growth rate you will get a PEG ratio. A PEG ratio above 1.0 (i.e. above the
growth rate) can signify stock overvaluation handy at least for comparing
overvalued stocks against each other.
Analyst recommendations and revisions: advice given by professional
securities analysts with regard to the purchase, holding or sale of stock.
Weve been here before.This is what the experts think we should do with
the stock. If were looking at the same company as we were before, then (if
the information is up to date) were looking at the same table of recommendations. Given that these are the experts, we could just trust their judgement
and stop reading here. But even if we do that, it helps to learn more about
the earnings estimates so that we at least understand their decisions. And
experts arent infallible
Earnings surprise: a percentage measure of the degree to which earnings
estimates differed from actual earnings.
To wit, the experts got it wrong. Actually, this used to be a sign that the
analysts had got it wrong. But since companies increasingly help analysts in
their estimates, its now taken to be a sign that the company got it wrong. If
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the actual earnings fall short of expectations, this sends out worrying signals
about the competence of management, thereby driving share prices down.
If the announced earnings turn out to be higher, it still means the company
got it wrong.But this doesnt seem to have the same detrimental effect.Why?
Because its good news the company is doing better than we expected.The
mere fact that it only seems to be doing better because the management got
its sums wrong and fed us a false expectation seems to get lost in the euphoria.
So which is better, an over-estimate or an under-estimate? A simple
response is that an under-estimate should lead to a price rise while an overestimate causes a price drop. But there are other factors.
1 In an over-estimate, it helps to gauge the size of the shortfall by looking at
the range indicated by the company. A company that indicates a $.1.11
range and comes in 1c shy is better than a company that indicates a
$.1.10 range and comes in 1c shy. Its still the same amount of money but
in the latter the percentage is greater.
2 Look at the vigour with which management offers its guidance. Check price
charts and make sure the surprises that occurred in the past were seen to
be significant by the market.
3 Sometimes a negative surprise can be a sign of problems outside, not
inside, the company. For instance, a computer manufacturer might
experience a loss of earnings because the firm that supplies it with semiconductors has been put out of action by an earthquake (something similar
happened to Apple in 1999). Suddenly the company cant make so many
computers. As production drops, so do sales, and the stock price plummets.
At which point we start buying. Why? Because the source of the problem
doesnt lie with the company. Therefore, when the company finds a new
supplier of semi-conductors, theres every reason to expect that normal
service will be resumed and the stock price will bounce back (making us a
tidy profit in the process). Indeed this is exactly what happened to Apple.
FIGURE I0.1
Apple
AAPL Daily
3/10/00
135
120
105
90
75
60
45
30
BigCharts.com
Volume
30
20
10
Apr
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May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
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00
Feb
Mar
Millions
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4 And if an over-estimate can be good news, so an under-estimate can
actually be bad. A company may find its stock price inflated after a series of
earnings announcements exceed the estimates given. As weve discussed,
the company isnt actually doing better the managements simply got its
sums wrong. This fact will soon become apparent and the stock price will
experience a sudden drop.
Estimates trend: the direction, accuracy and favourability of recent
earnings estimates.
Before we look at this table, we should examine the reasons why estimates
are revised and this could take a while! There are four basic reasons.
1 Changing expectations about the economic environment. Ergo, the
influence economists have on the revision of earnings per share estimates.
If they raise their expectations about the performance of the economy,
analysts are likely to follow suit and raise their estimates of corporate
earnings per share. If economists lower their expectations of the economy
(i.e. economic activity is slowing down), analysts will follow with lower
estimates. (Other factors come into play too: there might be an upward
revision of earnings per share if the companys business becomes more
cyclical.)
Similarly, changes in specific aspects of the economy can lead to an EPS
revision for certain companies, e.g. changing interest rates forecasts would
affect the EPS for companies in the financial sector; revised expectations for
commodity prices would affect the EPS for food processing companies and
restaurants.
2 Changing expectations about a companys markets. Ergo, the influence the
changing nature of the market has on the revision of EPS estimates. Take
the example of TV broadcasting: in the 1970s, analysts
focused on the factors that were likely to influence the
demand for commercial advertising (which commercial TV
If economists lower
companies rely on for their income). In the 1990s their
calculations have been muddied by the fact that other
their expectations of
kinds of companies have cut into the broadcasters
the economy (i.e.
market, such as cable and internet companies, making
economic activity is
broadcasters work harder to secure viewers. The value of a
TV show as a vehicle for advertising is now in greater
slowing down),
doubt. And this doubt can lead to greater EPS revision,
analysts will follow
even if there are no changes in economic expectations (i.e.
with lower estimates.
no revisions from the economists to rock the boat).
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The market is susceptible to other factors too, for example the political
climate surrounding healthcare needs to be accounted for in estimates for
those stocks. In the case of healthcare and broadcasting, the change in the
market has been gradual. But changes can also affect quarter-to-quarter
analyst expectations the effects of e-commerce on the traditional retail
market demand close and regular scrutiny.
3 Changes unique to individual companies. Ergo, changes in a companys
business strategies, and its success rate in implementing those strategies.
This can often cause analysts to revise earnings estimates.
4 Changes in the analysts assessment methods. The above three are
important, but the biggest cause of revised earnings estimates is the
corporate earnings announcement (or, if there is one, the preannouncement). Analysts can never be sure that their estimates are on
target, even with company executives guiding. And while those executives
may be experts on the working of their own company, they dont have a
crystal ball to show them where the market is heading. Interim reports and
pre-announcements help both executives and analysts to make a closer
assessment of how the economy and various markets are performing,
which in turn gives them greater accuracy in predicting how much money
companies will make.
The upshot is that estimate revisions are a fact of life. You cannot put
together a portfolio that is immune to earnings surprises.The best you can
do is look for companies that are likely to have favourable surprises, and
avoid those likely to have major negative surprises.And this is where the estimates trend table (Table 10.3) helps us.
Take a look at the way those figures have changed across the time periods
given. If the estimates have been increasing (i.e. an upward trend), this
means that analysts have been surprised for the better. If theres a downwards trend, it means that the surprises have been negative.
Always bear in mind that this information shows us what happened in the
past.Theres no guarantee that the future will hold the same outcome.And if
surprises do come, theres no guarantee that the stock will be affected in the
same way.The longer a trend is in place, the more aggressively the stock will respond when that trend is reversed.
For example, a company that has been enjoying a trend of
You cannot put
favourable earnings surprises is more likely to be unsettled
by a negative surprise than a company which has got used
together a portfolio
to receiving such bad news.
that is immune to
earnings surprises.
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HOT TIP
Go for favourable surprises and upward estimates trends, but check why
estimates have been revised, how past trends were received, and that the
surprises arent artificially inflating the stock price.
Exercises
1 A clue to stock overvaluation can be found by looking at the projected price
to earnings ratios column. If you divide this number by the consensus
growth rate you will get a PEG ratio. We would regard a stock as
overvalued if the PEG is:
a less than one;
b between 0.5 and 0.7;
c above two;
d a negative figure.
2 The EPS estimate is:
a the date on which a company issues an official statement detailing its
earnings;
b a brokerage houses estimates of a companys earnings;
c advice given by professional securities analysts with regard to the
purchase, holding or sale of stock;
d a percentage measure of the degree to which earnings estimates
differed from actual earnings;
e none of the above.
3 The earnings surprise is:
a the date on which a company issues an official statement detailing its
earnings;
b a brokerage houses estimates of a companys earnings;
c advice given by professional securities analysts with regard to the
purchase, holding or sale of stock;
d a percentage measure of the degree to which earnings estimates
differed from actual earnings;
e none of the above.
4 Which one of the following is implausible?
a Negative earnings surprise can be a sign of problems outside, not inside,
the company.
b A company may find its stock price inflated after a series of earnings
announcements exceed the estimates given.
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c A negative surprise should lead to a price fall.
d A positive surprise can lead to a price fall.
e None of the above.
f All of the above.
5 Estimates can be revised because of:
a changing expectations about a companys markets;
b changes unique to individual companies;
c changes in the analysts assessment methods;
d changing expectations about the economic environment;
e all of the above;
f none of the above.
Answers
1 c, 2 b, 3 d, 4 e, 5 e.
Notes
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What you have learned
Companies issue details of their earnings for the past quarter in written reports
called earnings announcements. Analysts following the company also issue
predictions of what these announcements will contain earnings estimates.
Earnings surprise is a measure of the difference between what the analysts
estimated and what the company announced. Estimates trend shows the
accuracy of these estimates over a given period and whether the surprises have
been favourable (the announced earnings were more than had been estimated)
or negative (the announced earnings were less than had been estimated). By
looking at past trends we can gauge the likelihood of a future upward or downward trend in stock.
Exercises
1 What are earnings announcements and who is responsible for them?
2 What are earnings estimates and who is responsible for them?
3 Why would a pre-announcement take place?
4 Define earnings surprise.
5 Name two reasons for an earnings surprise.
6 What would be a favourable surprise, and why?
7 What would be a negative surprise, and why?
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Fundamentals web
guides and tests
MODULE
11
Web guides
Hoovers
www.hoovers.com
Covers the kind of information we have looked at in this section. It sometimes syndicates its proprietary company profiles to other financial portals.
Mainly for subscription users.
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Insider Trader
www.insidertrader.com
Like it says on the tin: the perfect source for information about insider trading.It collects under one roof the key insider buying and selling of corporate
executives.
Market Guide
www.marketguide.com
Our model for this section.A comprehensive and accessible source of information. Our old friend.What you want to look at here is the earnings table
you will find from the home page of any company in which you are investing.
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Multex Investor Network
www.multexinvestor.com
Has a multitude of broker research reports, ranging from the free to the very
expensive.The free ones are best for an active trader, but long-term investors
may want to spend out for a report in order to back up their trading decisions.
Stockpoint
www.stockpoint.co.uk
The data can be a bit sketchy, but its a good source for the kind of fundamental information weve covered in this section.
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Thomson Research
www.thomsonresearch.com
For the serious trader only its costly! But youre paying for quality, the
information being second only to something from Goldman Sachs. Look for
Trading.
The following sites focus on earnings information.
Earnings Whispers
www.earningswhispers.com
Some people argue that its not the published expected earnings that matter,
its the whisper numbersor real figures Wall Street is examining.Some think
this is why stock prices fall in apparently better-than-expected earnings
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because the figure did not meet Wall Streets expectations. This site deals
with those whisper numbers and tells you why they can be important.
First Call
www.firstcall.com
This site is aimed at the heavy duty earnings investor.The most useful part
for us is the consensus change link.
Hemmington Scott
www.hemmscott.co.uk
Another heavyweight,this company syndicates financial information to most
online sites, so come here if you want to drink from the source.The key link
for us is its earnings and dividends link, though theres a wealth of other
information on offer too.
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Yahoo! Finance UK
www.uk.finance.yahoo.com
This one just gets better and better.Think of it as your financial 7-Eleven
the place you pop into for the latest essentials.
Zacks Investment Research
www.zacks.com
One of the most respected companies on the web.The free services show us
what we need for earnings data, particularly when it comes to free earnings
surprise information. Further information (such as e-mail portfolio earnings
updates) comes at the cost of a subscription, but its best to take advantage
of the one-month free trial first.
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Summary
It helps to have a rough
Remember we said we were shopping for stock? It helps to
idea of what we want,
make a shopping list before you actually go to the shops
but were also looking
a rough idea of what kinds of goods you want to buy and
at these figures to give
what your price range is but were not always sure what
were looking for. Often were browsing and dont know
us trading ideas.
what we want until weve had a good look at the goods on
offer. So it goes when looking at fundamental information
about companies. It helps to have a rough idea of what we
want, but were also looking at these figures to give us trading ideas.
In this section we have learned how to read this information and how to
act on it. Its given us an insight into how professional investors do their
research and what they look for, and weve gained a greater practical knowledge of how the markets work and how companies function invaluable
whether we want to become traders or enter the business world in another
capacity.
However, its important to stay focused. Remember that were looking for
growth thats our criterion as traders.And a lot of this information is collected over long periods and may take a while to be reflected in stock prices
its aimed at the long-term investor.Were also looking for a broad, varied
portfolio.You may momentarily regret this if one of your investments soars
Why didnt I sink it all into this company?! but, conversely, if that stock
drops, the rest of your holdings will give you a certain amount of stability.
Self-assessment test
Define:
1 operating margin;
2 price to book ratio (what problems are associated with it?);
3 price to cash flow ratio;
4 return on equity;
5 dividend yield (is a high or a low value desirable?);
6 price to earnings ratio (P/E);
7 capital spending;
8 price-earnings growth (PEG).
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Suggested answers
1 Operating margin is the ratio of operating profits to turnover the
percentage of each revenue dollar remaining after deducting the direct and
indirect costs that went into producing the good or services involved.
We subtract the direct costs from revenue to get gross profit and then
subtract the indirect costs from gross profit to get operating profit. Indirect
costs are what we tend to call overheads, incurred in running the business
even though they have no direct link to the product and/or service
produced. Operating profit is a companys trading profit before tax and
interest. Analysts often calculate margins by omitting capital profits and
losses and any other exceptional matters from the operating profit
equation. The higher the margin the better.
2 Price to book ratio is the share price of a company divided by net asset
value per share. Another way of saying this is to divide capitalization by net
assets. It is the value of stock compared to the value of the assets it owns
(clear of debt).
There are problems with PBVs. They are very subjective.
a It doesnt apply to a services company because the assets dont generate
the revenue.
b Assets are valued on the books at the prices the company paid for them,
minus cumulative depreciation/amortization charges, but depreciation is
hard to measure and simple accountancy formulae will not properly
reflect real-world differences in depreciation.
c The indeterminacy of the notion of value. Patents and other intangibles
such as copyrights and brands can only be given a value when placed up
for auction to test the market. Yet another complication is that
companies tend to deal with intangibles in a variety of ways. They can
write them off entirely or in part and do so over a period or straight
away. Some even revalue their intangibles in their balance sheets.
3 Price to cash flow ratio is the value of stock relative to the level of cash
flow. Cash flow represents the amount of money a company generates in a
year. It is not the profits (i.e. revenues after expenses) generated in a year. It
is the amount of money generated by the company as it went about its
business; in short, how much cash it had to hand to pay its expenses.
A company with high cash flow has plenty of money circulating to pay its
expenses. A company with low cash flow may have to borrow money or sell
assets to meet its costs.
So what are we looking for in a price to cash flow ratio? Ideally a
company with a low ratio relative to that of other companies. But we also
want to see a cash flow that is rising from year to year.
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4 Return on equity is how well a company has managed the
equity (capital) given to it by the shareholders. Equity is
that portion of the companys assets that would be
distributed to the shareholders if the company were
liquidated and all its assets were sold at values reflected
on its balance sheets. In short, what the company itself
and therefore the shareholders owns (as opposed to,
say, money loaned from a bank).
A company with low
cash flow may have to
borrow money or sell
assets to meet its costs.
5 Yield is the annual dividend rate expressed as a percentage of the price of
the stock. This tells you how much income you can expect per $ or
investment in this stock, which means you can compare it with similar
stock.
As with annual dividend, the desired value (high or low) of the yield
depends on a number of things. A low value may be indicative of a
company reinvesting profits and therefore a sign of organic growth.
However, high-yield portfolios often outperform the market on a total
return basis. This is because they are often less favoured companies. The
more favoured companies are subject to the whims of mass-market
attention. This drives up the prices of growth shares to exorbitant levels.
Another reason why high-yielding shares can perform well is that
dividends have, historically, accounted for 4050% of the total return on
the Dow. This means a higher annual payout represents a considerable
cumulative benefit. But its a bad idea to seek out high-yield shares just
because they seem high yield. High yield may just reflect market fears that
the dividend rate may be cut. Its best to avoid companies that are very
poorly covered.
6 Price to earnings ratio is the multiple youre paying for each dollar of
earnings of the company. It tells you whether youre being overcharged for
your shares. You divide the price of the stock by the annual share earnings.
It can be particularly helpful when comparing companies in the same
industry companies which dont seem to be much different to one
another. But a company with a high P/E ratio may be just the ticket
because its going through a period of rapid growth, hence you appear to
be being overcharged for your share. Likewise, a company may have a low
P/E ratio because its having difficulties with competition, a cyclical
downturn or a lawsuit, i.e. its being forced to sell cheap. Rules of thumb
can be dangerous.
It tends to be the case that an attractive stock is one whose P/E ratio is
lower than its long-term compound earnings per share growth rate.
7 Capital spending is the money spent on purchasing and/or expanding
company assets.
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The capital spending entry shows you how much a
company
is spending on assets relative to the rest of the
Its best to avoid
industry. Sometimes an increase will match that of the
companies that are
industry, indicating, say, that a new technology has become
very poorly covered.
an essential purchase (e.g. the need for every company to
have its own website).
If the amount is less than the industry, it could be that the
company is saving up for a spending increase in the future. If the increase is
greater than the industry, the company may already be putting that project
into action and, having made that investment, wont have to spend so
much over the following years, thereby freeing up the amount of cash the
company has to do business with.
Its useful to compare capital spending with sales. This will give you an
indication as to whether past capital expenditure has resulted in increased
sales as planned an indication in turn that a company will or wont
continue to grow.
8 Price-earnings growth is the price to earnings ratio of a share divided by the
estimated future growth rate in earnings per share. PEG is a more
sophisticated method of assessment because it ties in the price to earnings
ratio with future earnings growth rate. This gives a much better insight into
the true potential value of a company. PEG shows how high the P/E ratio
could be and whether the shares are a realistic bargain or an expanding
bubble. PEG can also be used defensively and not simply to maximize share
potential.
The lower the PEG below average, the less vulnerable. It can be a good
idea to regularly assess the PEG average of a growth portfolio to see how
defensive it would be in a bearish climate.
Of course, PEG shouldnt be seen in isolation as a litmus test of
profitability. Nonetheless, as a single financial statement it gives a quick
guide to the relative value of growth shares.
Exercises
1 The market capitalization of about $4 billion characterizes a firm that is:
a large cap;
b mid cap;
c small cap;
d micro cap.
2 An average daily volume of $1.2 million characterizes a firm that is:
a macro cap;
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b large cap;
c small cap;
d micro cap.
3 What should you look for in the following data respectively: recent price,
beta, margins?
a Ignore, low, low.
b Low, high, ignore.
c High, ignore, high.
d High, ignore, low.
4 The % shares owned by the company should be around:
a 05%;
b 520%;
c 2030%;
d 3040%.
5 What should you look for in the following data respectively: sales, earnings
per share, the price to earnings ratio?
a High, high, high.
b High, low, high.
c High, low, low.
d High, high, low.
6 What should you look for in the following data: capital spending, price to
cash flow ratio, price to sales ratio?
a Strong, low, low.
b Strong, high, high.
c Weak, low, low.
d Strong, low, high.
7 Which of the following is a good reason for going to low dividend-yield
shares?
a Low yield suggests that the company is undervalued as the price is very
low relative to the dividend payout.
b Historically low-yield shares have outperformed the market on a total
return basis.
c Low yield suggests the company is reinvesting profit into the company.
d Low yield has a higher annual payout and this suggests a higher
cumulative benefit.
Answers
1 b Market capitalization level.
Large cap greater than $5 billion.
Mid cap between $1 billion and $5 billion.
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Small cap between $300 million and $1 billion.
Micro cap below $300 million.
2 c Average daily volume.
Over 4 mil macro capitalization
1.6 mil large capitalization
1. mil small capitalization
Less than 1 mil micro capitalization.
3 c Check that the recent price is strong; ignore ADV, ignore beta. Go for
high margins (high profits), but check that this figure isnt artificially high
because the company is paying lower taxes.
4 b Check the % shares owned entry and look for 520%.
5 d Look for rising sales, rising EPS and a low price to earnings ratio relative
to the EPS.
6 a Go for strong capital spending, low PCF ratio suggesting good value for
money, low. In particular, look for high cash flow (represented in part by
a low PCF) and high capital spending, low debts, high investments.
7 c Low-yield shares may suggest the company is retaining profits in order to
invest in growth and so offering a low dividend payment. The other
options a, b, d are arguments for high dividend-yield shares. A high
dividend yield suggests that the share price may be undervalued.
Historically high-yield shares have outperformed the market because of
the cumulative benefit of higher dividend payments.
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Exercise
Look at the following sets of tables for two firms and evaluate as much as you can of note in the data.
What other data would you want to look at?
SET 1
Prev. Close
306.5000
PE Ratio
22.3700
Shares/Issue (m)
613.256
EPS (Norm)
13.700
Yr high (curr)
1086.00
Mkt Cap (m)
1879.630
FRS3 EPS
7.800
Employees
11,059
Annual Div
2.8000
Yr low (curr)
306.50
Div Yield
0.9100
Yr high (prev)
1761.50
year ended 31 December
1998
turnover ($m)
pre tax profit ($m)
norm earn per share (c)
FRS3 earn per share (c)
div per share (c)
intangibles ($m)
fixed assets ($m)
fixed investments ($m)
stocks ($m)
debtors ($m)
cash, securities ($m)
creditors short ($m)
creditors long ($m)
prefs, minorities ($m)
low ord cap, reserves ($m)
mkt capitalization ($m)
444
57.5
7.68
7.25
1.50
28.5
17.8
2.79
116
39.5
115
5.45
84.4
867.45
MODULE 11
P/S Ratio
26.8
1999
609
83.6
11.1
10.7
2.17
45.6
16.9
2.80
1.40
145
31.2
116
4.70
122
1980.56
Div Cover
5.1900
Yr low (prev)
789.75
2000
810
83.1
13.7
7.80
2.80
1,087
28.9
2.80
3.90
236
52.2
180
235
996
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SET 2
Prev. Close
725.0000
PE Ratio
13.6400
Shares/Issue (m)
5538.763
EPS (Norm)
53.140
Yr high (curr)
772.00
Mkt Cap (m)
40156.032
FRS3 EPS
49.100
Annual Div
30.6000
Yr low (curr)
610.00
year ended 31 December
pre tax profit ($m)
norm earn per share (c)
FRS3 earn per share (c)
div per share (c)
intangibles ($m)
fixed assets ($m)
fixed investments ($m)
advances, debtors ($m)
short term assets ($m)
liquid assets, cash ($m)
creditors short ($m)
creditors long ($m)
subordinated loans ($m)
prefs, minorities ($m)
ord cap, reserves ($m)
mkt capitalization ($m)
Employees
85,847
Div Yield
4.2200
Yr high (prev)
742.50
1998
3,015
36.9
38.5
22.2
216
1,634
31,562
112,236
16,323
6,026
152,804
3,655
4,021
42.0
7,475
46849.78
P/S Ratio
10.89
1999
3,621
47.9
45.3
26.6
231
2,035
36,124
117,980
14,591
5,018
128,844
32,028
6,493
33.0
8,581
43464.031
Div Cover
1.6200
Yr low (prev)
517.00
2000
3,886
53.1
49.1
30.6
2,599
3,037
64,005
126,951
14,957
6,433
142,135
58,048
7,510
552
9,737
40156.032
Suggested answers
Set 1: the company is a mid cap shown by a market capitalization of about $1.9
billion. Looking at the price data the share price is clearly on a downtrend, with
the current price at a 52-week low and well below the price range of the previous year. However, we will have to look at some technicals to fully understand
the price trend. Turnover has increased well, but the pre-tax profit or operating margin has remained stagnant over the past two years, which is not particularly good. Furthermore, investment has remained static at $2.8 million. Debts
have risen sharply as the rows showing short-term and long-term creditors suggest. A low dividend yield shown by the data is not particularly indicative of reinvestment given the investment trend, but rather reflects poor growth in
operating margins. Normal earnings per share have risen since 1998, but when
compared with the price to earnings ratio, EPS is too low and/or the P/E too high
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(we would need to examine P/E ratios for other companies in
the same sector to gauge whether the P/E ratio is too high
below 30 seems all right). The price/sales ratio is also quite
high compared with the P/E ratio. Cash flow has grown well.
A low dividend yield
shown by the data is
not particularly
indicative of
reinvestment given the
investment trend, but
rather reflects poor
growth in operating
margins.
Set 2: in contrast to Set 1 this larger company looks healthier.
The price (725) is in the middle of the range defined by the
latest and previous years low and high. We would therefore
have to look at the price chart to gain more insight. Operating
margin (pre-tax profit) has grown well over the past three
years along with fixed assets and investments. Cash flow has
grown since 1999, although it fell in 199899, perhaps as a
result of financing investment expenditure. The time structure
of debts has increased, with long-term creditors (debts) having
increased and short-term debts fallen. Market capitalization
has also fallen. However, the price-earnings ratio and price to sales ratio are low
relative to the EPS which suggests the shares are good value. EPS has increased
strongly over the past three years along with the annual dividend this will represent a high total return on the share. Even though the dividend yield is high,
profits have been sufficiently reinvested to finance tangible and intangible
investments.
Of course, we would want to look at information on management effectiveness, performance measures, what activities the company is involved in, earnings estimates, and more data on growth rates and value ratios. Technical
analysis and comparing the company with others in the same sector will also be
essential.
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MODULE 12
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MODULE
Choosing brokers
12
aving analyzed and planned the trade,and done all the groundwork
and preparation, you are ready for the kill.You obviously need some
method of putting theory into practice and actually placing the trade.This is
where the broker comes in.
What are the things I should look for in a broker?
How do I choose a broker suitable for me?
Who are the best brokers?
What you will learn
Having worked through these modules you will:
understand the choices available in selecting brokers;
appreciate the pitfalls associated with each choice;
know what to look for in a broker;
know how to get an account up and running.
Module outline
Decide whether you want an online broker or an off-line traditional one.
Examine security issues to do with online accounts.
Things you ought to look for when deciding on a broker.
Some sites.
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Some broker ranking tables.
Further lists of brokers and sites by the time weve finished youll think of
little else.
On or off?
Online brokers allow you to place your trade orders via the internet. However, while they are a product of the internet and so even the oldest online
broker can claim to be only a few years old, the firms that provide the online
services tend to be very well-established off-line brokerage firms.
The key benefits of using online brokerage services to
execute your trades
Cost. Internet services tend to cost less than comparable off-line ones,
with lower costs being passed on in part to consumers, in the form of
low commissions and margin rates and competitive rates of interest on
credit balances.
Convenience. You can enter an order at any time night or day according to your own timetable. Useful if, like me, you do your analysis late
at night.
Quick confirmation. Your trade is usually confirmed electronically, so
you need not waste time hanging around on the phone, or call back
busy brokers.
Total account keeping and monitoring. Because trades are handled
electronically, most online brokers have a facility to permit users to
monitor their account and positions on the net. This again is another
minor convenience.
The firms that provide
the online services tend
to be very wellestablished off-line
brokerage firms.
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If you already have an established relationship with an
off-line broker you may not wish to place your orders
online. Even if you decide to stay with an off-line broker,
many of them have websites that are worth visiting to find
out more about the services they provide and the free
stuff, such as analysis.
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HOT TIP
Online brokers are worth investigating, if only to compare costs. As a small
trader, your costs are relatively large compared with the size of your investments and anything which alters that balance in your favour has to be
worth examining.
With these factors in mind, I have listed some online and off-line brokers
that meet certain criteria. You are encouraged to visit their sites, see what
they offer and compare them.To save you time all broker sites listed in this
module have descriptions of key services they provide and particularly what
is available for free.
Security: how safe is the process?
The sites
All the major online brokers assure their clients that they have unbreachable
security in terms of someone placing rogue trades or transferring money out
of your account. Security is usually assured through several procedures.
The broker will give audit trails of all trades and cancellations, which are
available for you to inspect.
In addition to this all firms listed in this book have some form of insurance
protection (usually Securities Investor Protection Corporation, SIPC),
ensuring client funds are either segregated or protected should the firm
have financial difficulties. However, as E*Trade points out in its small print:
Protection does not cover the market risks associated with investing. Pity!
Use of firewalls. These are like, well, walls of fire that
prevent access from the outside through links, etc.
Use of account numbers, user names and passwords.
The browser
If you are using Internet Explorer 4 or Netscape Navigator
4, you are using a secure browser. Data passing through
your browser to and from your broker will be encrypted.
You can tell you are in a secure site because:
1 the URL changes from http: to https;
2 a pop-up window informs you that you are about to enter
a secure site;
All the major online
brokers assure their
clients that they have
unbreachable security
in terms of someone
placing rogue trades or
transferring money out
of your account.
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3 in Internet Explorer 4, a lock icon appears in the bottom left-hand corner;
4 in Netscape Navigator 4, an unbroken key icon appears in the bottom lefthand corner of the browser.
You
The most important thing you can do to help yourself is guard your personal
identification number (PIN), account number and user name.The PIN is the
most important of these.
HOT TIPS
Things to do when placing an online order:
Double-check and read the order carefully.
If in doubt, check by phone.
Be careful when clicking on the Submit order button. Do not send a
duplicate order.
What you have learned
When choosing a broker you should think about convenience, costs, quick
confirmation, total account keeping. For the first three reasons, online brokers are best.
When looking at security requirements, look at differences in sites. Look for
audit trails, firewalls, insurance protection, account numbers and password requirements. Your browser should be fine.
What to look for
At a glance
There are many, many online brokers. It is hard to choose between them. In
deciding the online brokerage firms to include in this module I have considered the following criteria, which are based on what any good trader or
investor should have in mind when investigating brokers.
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1 Competitive commissions.
Check for what size trade the advertised low commission applies.
Any maintenance or handling charges (i.e. hidden costs)?
Commissions sometimes vary on the price of the stock, e.g. extra
charges for a stock trading less than 50c.
2 Account details.
Minimum initial deposit.
Minimum account balance.
Interest rates for idle funds.
Good brokers ought to automatically sweep excess funds to a high
interest account.
Margin and checking accounts:
A margin account will allow you to borrow what are the rates?
It would be convenient to be able to write cheques.
Is there a cost for wiring funds from the account?
See Module 13 on opening an account.
Availability of account data online.
How often is the account updated? Intra-daily may be important for the
day trader.
3 Established on the net; not new, with potential teething problems.
4 Price quotes.
5 Methods of confirming orders (an online screen and an e-mail at least).
6 Emergency back-up.
7 Types of orders accepted.
8 Portfolio monitoring.
How often is your portfolio updated?
Is a tax summary available?
Is an automatic performance measure calculated?
Is a transaction summary available?
9 News.
10 Research available.
What is available, is it free, is it online or posted?
11 Customer support.
Phone, fax, e-mail is ideal.
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Other factors customer service
Of course, price is of primary concern. Online trading is popular partly
because it offers discount commissions for investors who do not want to pay
a full-fee broker for advice they could have discovered themselves on the
internet or for trades where they do not want advice.But even among online
brokers, the commissions can vary greatly and comparison is near impossible with each calculating commissions on a different basis some using the
value of your trade, others the number of shares bought, and others the frequency with which you trade.
But there is more to online broker selection than price if there wasnt,
Schwab in the USA, which is one of the most expensive online brokers,
would not have the largest market share.
The most important factor in selecting an online broker is customer service. Consider the following.
Reliability Reliability in service is an essential prerequisite for any online
trader.There is no point saving $20 in commission on buying a stock, only
to find you cant sell it because your online broker has broken down. Such
downtime by online brokers is becoming increasingly frequent in the USA,
and only recently even the mighty Schwab had one full hour where trades
could not be placed.
In a survey of US brokers by US clients carried out by TheStreet.Com, DLJ
Direct came top in the category of reliability.
Execution Poor execution, too, can override price as a concern for an
online trader.The price at which your trade is executed should be as close
as possible to the real-time price quote you see on the screen before you
trade. Poor execution can often end up swamping any commission savings.
In the same TheStreet.Com survey, Schwab came above DLJ Direct, which
in turn narrowly beat E*Trade on the issue of execution prices.
There is more to online
broker selection than
price.
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Design Site design is an important consideration for me.
There is nothing worse when you are trying to find a
quote, do some research, or quickly place a trade than to
find navigation around the site as difficult as up the
Amazon (the river, not the site). I want my online broker to
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be easy and intuitive to use. There is only one way to see
what suits you and that is to visit the sites themselves.
I am sorry to report I find the purely UK online brokers,
unlike US brokers with UK sites, rather off-putting.
Free pickings
Trading online
profitably still requires
research to arrive at
stock picks and the
internet is an excellent
resource to offer this.
Online trading is about more than placing
a trade through an online broker instead of phoning a traditional broker. Trading online profitably still requires
research to arrive at stock picks and the internet is an
excellent resource to offer this. I always check to see what
research the online broker offers. Do they provide free
portfolio monitoring, charting, news from major wires, research from
renowned institutions, commentary, or is it just a website appended to a traditional brokerage?
HOT TIPS
Look for headings, llike the following, on the broker websites to make
your task easier. Good brokers will present what they have well and you
will be able to decipher whether you are getting quality.
Trading, where you can place a trade for stocks, options or mutual
funds.
Portfolio or account, where youll find information about your
account, such as balances and holdings.
Markets, where you can check the latest market indices, headlines and
reports.
Quotes, where youll find real-time quotes for stocks and options, as
well as model portfolios.
Research and news, where youll find authoritative research on the
markets, companies and mutual funds. There should also be a good
charting facility.
Community or chat, where you can discuss or argue at length about
whats hot and whats not.
Customer service, where you can open new accounts, message the
broker online, withdraw cash, etc.
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What you have learned
When you consider different brokers there are many possible things to look at.
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Competitive commissions are an obvious starting point look at the structure of possible costs, e.g. the size of trades that receive low commissions,
how commissions vary, handling charges and other hidden costs. Evaluate what free pickings there are, e.g. free research, portfolio monitoring. Of
course, you do not have to do your research at your brokers website if there
is better free research elsewhere, but then you will have to trade off other
benefits of your broker against the inconvenience of doing research elsewhere.
Account details include the minimum required initial funds, account balance, the interest rate for idle funds, types of accounts available (see
below).
Data, price quotes: are they real-time, delayed, do they cover financial
derivatives as well as stocks?
The speed at which you can get to research, is it free, whats the quality like?
Assess the quality of the news items on the site.
Methods of confirmation.
Look at facilities for portfolio monitoring. The website should have a preview tutorial for potential members.
What emergency back-up does the site have telephone, fax?
The design of the site is of course important given the time youll be spending surfing.
Reliability, execution speed will be important to you see the ranking.
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The sites
Broker watch
In this section we take a run through sites which rate and rank brokers
according to different criteria such as performance,speed,commissions,etc.
Gomez ***
www.gomez.com
An excellent site covering rankings of many different things, not just brokers.A clear and easy-to-navigate site that is up to date.
Internet Investing **
www.internetinvesting.com
Gives quite a detailed list of commission rates for all major online brokers,
but has a semi-professional feel to it.
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Keynote Web Brokerage Index *
www.keynote.com
Most useful for its rankings of speed of access. Design not too bad either.
Smart Money Brokers Ratings ***
www.smartmoney.com
An excellent site (and an excellent magazine). I could spend hours on this
one playing on the broker speedometer! Lots of rankings for different criteria.A lesson in how to present info.
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Brokers
To help you gauge the sites, I have provided a rough-and-ready rating, based
on general impressions of the services from inspecting the sites and the
charges they inflict.
Ameritrade ***
www.ameritrade.com
Ameritrade
PO Box 2209
Omaha, NE 68103 2209
Tel: 1 800 454 9272
A very good site.The home page is a lesson in simplicity coupled with professionalism. Research is not as good as others but then again the broker is
one of the cheapest around.The site is quick, easy to navigate, well designed
and less cluttered than other sites.
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CSFB Direct (now sold to TDW)***
www.csfbdirect.com
Formerly DLJ Direct, the brokerage was taken over by CSFB and has now
been sold to TD Waterhouse.
The site is very nice and well organized. It gives you reasons to open an
account and makes it easy to find commission rates. DLJ realizes it has to
offer added value through research and does so.The only thing is,it is not the
cheapest.
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Charles Schwab***
www.schwab.com
Charles Schwab
101 Montgomery Street
San Francisco, CA 94104
Tel: 415 627 7000/ 1 800 435 4000
Charles Schwab is not the cheapest broker, and it doesnt care because it is
the largest.Very experienced at what it does, and has an enormous number
of positive press comments.If you are a little concerned about trading on the
net then a broker such as Schwab provides some added security in that you
are dealing with an old hand in internet broking. I wish it would use its size
to do more strategic alliances and offer its clients even more free stuff.
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Charles Schwab Europe***
www.schwab-europe.com
Charles Schwab
Cannon House
24 The Priory
Queensway
Birmingham B4 6BS
UK
Tel: +44 121 200 7788
An increasingly impressive site, with free research, easy navigation, and good
design.There is a phone brokerage service for those not quite ready to jump
onto the cybertrain. Site also offers UK investors the opportunity to buy US
securities.
184
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Datek***
www.datek.com
Datek
50 Broad Street, 6th Floor
New York, NY 10004
Tel: 212 514 753
Datek is not only cheap, but I do keep on hearing good things about it from
chat boards, e-mails and press comments. Either it has a very good CIA-like
undercover publicity machine or it is, in fact, very good.The site also has a
reassuring number of positive press reviews. I always find that comforting
when considering a site marketing itself on the basis of having a very low
cost base.
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Discover **
www.discoverbrokerage.com
Owned by Morgan Stanley,but the site does not come in as having the cheapest commission, or the best design, or the most research. It sort of does a bit
of everything without excelling at any one. However, given who owns it, it
provides the security you may want in an online broker.
186
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E*Trade ***
www.etrade.com
E*Trade Securities
4 Embarcadero Pl
2400 Geng Road
Palo Alto, CA 94303
Tel: 1 800 786 2575
A site with a lot of features, some free before you register, others for account
holders. The site is easy to navigate and the information is simple to find.
There are also message boards and financial services available. On the
Gomez rankings it has been the Number 1 overall broker for some time.As a
broker, it has a lot of awards and positive reviews, making it a must-consider
choice.
MODULE 12
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E*Trade UK ***
www.etrade.co.uk
The UK version of the US site is among the very best of all the sites open to
UK investors.The charting section is especially good.The site offers portfolios, message boards (which could be better organized but are one of the
most active in the UK for stock chat), news and research.Well designed and
organized. Did I mention the commissions are among the UKs cheapest?
IMIWeb ***
www.imiweb.co.uk
A relatively new entrant, part of Italys second largest bank. Offers very clear
cost structure. UK trades 10. European trades 15. No other costs.Their live
chat with customer services is very innovative too. Useful if you like good
service and cheap online trading with the option to trade abroad. Who
doesnt?
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Merrill Lynch HSBC ***
www.mlhsbc.com
Excellent research provided by both Merrill Lynch and HSBC.The site is fast
and slick.
Pathburner.com **
www.pathburner.com
Now there is no disadvantage to trading online as the company offers
advice from professional brokers at execution-only prices. If you are looking
for good tools and advice or professional management of your funds use this.
If you want no advice and dirt cheap trades then obviously look elsewhere.
MODULE 12
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ScoTTrade **
www.scottrade.com
The site seems to be extremely slow. It is supposed to be cheap, however,
and I liked the design and layout.
190
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Broker ranking tables
I have compiled a number of broker ranking tables to give you a varied and
perhaps balanced view of some of the brokers already mentioned, as well as
some new ones (Table 12.1).
TA B L E 1 2 . 1
Broker
What some of the brokers offer
One-step
online
account
activation
Abbey National No
telephone
to get
account
dealing
number
Barclays
No paper
application
process by
post
Charles Schwab No paper
application
by post
Com Direct
DLJ
Egg
E*Trade
Fastrad
Time from
set up
account to
first
trade
Online and
immediate
fund a/c by
debit card
Within 15
minutes
(during
business
hours only)
Limit
good for
the day
option
Immediate
reinvestment
of nominee
sales
proceeds
Certified sales
without prior
nominee
registration
Free
comprehensive
online and
interactive
education
No must set Yes
up DDM
No
No
Yes
No
10 days
No must set Yes
up a DDM
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
1 week
By phone only Yes limit
not
required
immediate
Yes
No
No
No
Yes shortly Yes
No
No 2 courses
only on tax and
investing
fundamentals
No
By phone only Yes
not
immediate
No
Yes
No
No
No Egg
Yes
savings
account only
No
No
No
Yes 10
minutes
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No paper 3 days
application
by post
No must 24 hours
wait for
e-mail to
activate
account
No
1 week
Yes
No
No paper 5 days
application
by post
No paper 34 days
application
by post
Firm realtime price
for trade
MODULE 12
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Hargreaves
Lansdown
2:57 pm
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Continued
No paper
application
by post
iDealing
No paper
application
by post
NatWest
No
Selftrade
No paper
application
by post
Sharepeople
No paper
application
by post
Stockacademy Yes online
and
immediate
1 week
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
78 days
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
5 10 days
3 days
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
1 week
No
No online,
not
immediate
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Approx. 10
minutes
(any time)
Yes online
and
immediate
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes 19 courses
for 3 levels of
investor
experience
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Stocktrade
No paper 1015 days
application
by post
TD Waterhouse No
1 week
Source: information compiled through websites and customer service teams of cited companies. Information correct as at
31/07/00.
192
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Broker rankings for Europeans from EuropeanInvestor.com
The excellent BlueSky rankings to be found on www.europeaninvestor.com
help European and US residents to choose the best brokers for trading European stocks.Table 12.2 shows some findings from a site that has to be essential visiting. BlueSky ranked the sites from more than 700 brokers in Europe.
TA B L E 1 2 . 2
BlueSky ratings for brokers trading European stocks
Germany: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Comdirect Residents and
Bank
non-residents
can apply
Yes
Warrants
and options
Yes
link
78.8%
81.4%
88.5%
DAB Bank
Residents and
non-residents
can apply;
only US
residents are
excluded
Yes
Warrants
Yes
link
67.6%
80.3%
82.5%
maxblue
Both residents
Yes
and non-residents
can apply
Warrants
Yes
link
75.2%
62.8%
75.6%
UK: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Residency
requirements
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
E*Trade
Uk residents only,
must have UK
bank account
Yes
Warrants
Yes
link
72.9%
76.1%
74.5%
Broker
name
MODULE 12
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Continued
Charles
Schwab
UK, Swiss,
German, Belgian,
Finnish, Spanish,
Norwegian and
Luxembourg
residents only
$ funds
No
Yes
link
80.0%
65.9%
71.7%
Merrill
Lynch
HSBC
UK residents only
No
No
No
link
87.0%
84.9%
67.2%
Switzerland: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
UBS
Credit
Suisse
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Residents and
Yes
non-residents can
apply; certain
countries excluded
Warrants
No
link
83.5%
48.4%
75.9%
Residents and
Yes
non-residents can
apply; certain
countries excluded
Options and
warrants
Yes
link
81.1%
59.8%
67.1%
Warrants
Yes
link
67.0%
51.6%
61.1%
Swissquote Residents and
Yes
non-residents can
apply; certain
countries excluded
Spain: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
eBankinter Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Patagon
Residents and
non-residents can
apply
194
SECTION 5
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Yes
No
Yes
link
74.7%
75.4%
79.5%
Yes
Yes
Yes
link
72.9%
58.1%
78.5%
MAKING THE TRADE
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Banesto
2:57 pm
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Continued
Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Yes
Yes
Yes
link
65.8%
72.2%
73.6%
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Italy: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
IMI Web
Trader
Only Italian
residents and
citizens can apply
Yes
Warrants and Yes
covered
warrants
link
70.5%
59.9%
78.3%
Banca Sella Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Yes
Warrants and Yes
options
link
75.8%
55.3%
71.3%
121
Internet
Banking
Yes
Warrants
link
72.3%
47.2%
66.3%
Only Italian
residents and
citizens can apply
Offers
IPOs
Yes
Belgium: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
eBanking
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Non-residents can Yes
apply; US
residents and nonFATF members are
excluded
Warrants
Yes
link
68.2%
55.6%
65.4%
VMSKeytrade
Belgium residents Yes
and non-residents
Warrants
Yes
link
60.5%
71.1%
64.9%
OneTwo
Trade
Belgium residents Yes
and non-residents
Warrants
Yes
link
64.7%
30.5%
59.0%
Offers
options
or
warrants
MODULE 12
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Continued
France: top rated broker sites (updated June 2001)
Broker
name
Residency
requirements
Mutual
fund
offer
Offers
options
or
warrants
Offers
IPOs
Basic
fees
BlueSky
usability
rating
100%
scale
BlueSky
e-mail+phone
service
rating
100% scale
BlueSky
overall
rating
100%
scale
Selftrade
Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Yes
Warrants
Yes
link
74.1%
60.7%
70.7%
Fimatex
Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Yes
Warrants and Yes
options
link
64.7%
54.7%
70.3%
CPR
Online
Residents and
non-residents can
apply
Yes
Warrants
link
67.6%
60.9%
63.4%
Yes
Brokers tables from Cyberinvest.com
Tables 12.312.5 are very useful, examining some more brokers, using
different criteria. Some of the regions examined include Japan, China,
Latin America, Africa and Australia.
The Americas
TA B L E 1 2 . 3
Language
196
Quotes Forex Market News & Economic
rates update articles outlook
on
region
CANADA
Bank of
Canada
English/
French
Bank of
Montreal
English/
French
BayStreet.com
English
SECTION 5
MAKING THE TRADE
Of
interest
Financial
Statistics
Intl Cost
links
Online
Investing
Canadian Top
Volume Leaders
Bond
Free
Free
Free
new module 12
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2:57 pm
Page 197
Continued
Canada
Investment
and Savings
English/
French
Canada
NewsWire
French/
English
Canada Trust
English
Canoe Money English
& Charts
Charts &
Industry
Groups
Dept.of Foreign English/
Affairs & Intl French
Trade
English
The Globe and English
Fund
Charts
Free
GLOBEfund
Free
Economic reports, RSP Toolkit, RIFs,
Mutual Funds, Global Asset
Allocation Fund
English/
French
Dept. of
Finance
Interest rates and
bond calculators
Free
Mutual Fund
Search, Link to
The Financial Post
Free
Free
Market info on Europe,
Asia-Pacific, US, Latin
America, Africa-MidEast
Free
Related to
Mutual
Funds
Canadas
National
Mutual
Fund Site
Free
Report on
Business
Free
Free
Ontario
Ministry of
Finance
English/
French
Report on
Business
Magazine
English
Free
MEXICO
InfoSel
Spanish
Free
Mexican
Consulate
English/
Spanish
US/Mexico
Chamber of
Commerce
English
Free
MODULE 12
CHOOSING BROKERS
White
Mexican Free
Papers on
govt
NAFTA
Links
197
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Continued
TA B L E 1 2 . 3
CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA
Argentinas
English/
Ministry of
Spanish
Economy
Brazil
English
Financial Wire
Free
Free
The Wall
Spanish/
Street Journal Portuguese
Americas
Free
Venezuela
Analitica
Free
TA B L E 1 2 . 4
Spanish
Asia, Australia
Language
ASIA
APEC
(Asia-Pacific
Economic
Cooperation)
Asia Business
Connection
News &
articles
Forex Market
on
Economic
Quotes rates update region outlook
Of
interest
Intl
links Cost
English
Free
English
Business Free
Links
Asia, Inc.
Online
English
Free
AsiaOne
English
Singapore &
Kuala Lumpur
Free
Business Times English
(Singapore)
Online
Free
Free
Free
CNBC Asia
English
Business News
Far Eastern
Economic
Review
198
SECTION 5
English
MAKING THE TRADE
Personalized
News
new module 12
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TA B L E 1 2 . 4
Interactive
Investor
International
2:57 pm
Page 199
Continued
English &
some
Chinese
Incl. Coming Hang
Hong
Seng
Kong
Tracker
stocks
et al
ThaiStocks.com English
CHINA & JAPAN
China.com
Chinese
China News
Digest
English
Inside China
Today
English
Japan: Ni-Ka
Online
English/
French
Macquarie
Online
English
Westpac
Wilson HTM
English
English
Free
Free
Free
Japanese Free
Govt
Links
Free
Free
The Australian English
News Network
The Australian English
Online
JapanCanada
Trade
Japan: The
English/
Nikkei Weekly French
AUSTRALIA
The Australian English
Financial
Review
Free
English
Free
Free & $
Portal site
China
Business Net
Yahoo!
Japanese
Finance: Japan
6,000 funds
incl. Hong
Kong
approved
funds
Articles &
Stock Picks
Free
Shareholder
Scorecard
covers
Australia &
New Zealand
Free
Free
MODULE 12
Free
Free
CHOOSING BROKERS
Reports on selected
Australian companies
199
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Europe, Africa and the Middle East
TA B L E 1 2 . 5
Language
ENGLAND
The Bank of
England
Quotes Forex Market News & Economic
rates update articles outlook
on
region
HM Treasury
English
The Times
of London
English
UK-iNvest.com English
Intl Cost
links
English
FT.Com
English
(Financial Times)
Of
interest
Free
Free
Free
Media Free
Links
WESTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE
Central
Europe
Online
English
Europe
Online
English &
language of
each country
Covers the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia
Free
Portal to 25 European countries and the UK
Free
FirstInvest.com French
A leading investment site in France
Free
Institute of
German/
Finance &
English
Banking, Univ
of Goettingen
Links to worldwide banking & finance sites,
and currency converters
Free
Scandinavia
OnTheNet
English
Spain:
La Gaceta
de los
Negocios
Spanish
Switzerland:
English
SwissInvest.com
200
SECTION 5
MAKING THE TRADE
Spain/Latin
America
Links to Free
Danish
Sites
Free
Business
reports on
Swiss
companies
Free
new module 12
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TA B L E 1 2 . 5
2:57 pm
Page 201
Continued
RUSSIA & EASTERN EUROPE
Interfax
English
Russia Today
English
Russian
Embassy
English
Rye, Man &
Gor Securities
English
SKATE
English
Corporate
Action
Watch
English
Africa: Mbendi English
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST
Africa: Africa English
News Online
Africa: Africa
Online
Emphasis on
emerging
markets
Free
Guide to the
Russian Stock
Market
Free
Free
Russian
Brokerage firm
Specializes
in emerging
markets
Chat groups;
Africa forums
Free
Free
Free
Free
Company profiles, country profiles, info on
Free
stock exchanges
MidEast:
English &
Arabia Online Arabic
Israel:
Globes Arena
English/
Hebrew
Israel:
S&P Israel
English
Portal to the MidEast: Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait,
Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi,
Syria and Yemen
S&P Reports
Reports on
Israeli
companies
MODULE 12
Free
Free
Free
CHOOSING BROKERS
201
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Page 202
More and more lists of brokers
Here are some other brokers and their websites if you want more addresses.Theyre in alphabetical order. Have fun.
Online brokers (North America)
202
Canada
Bank of Montreal Investorline
E*Trade Canada
Investnet
Waterhouse Securities
www.investorline.com
www.canada.etrade.com
www.investnet.com
www.waterhouse.com
USA
AB Watley
Accutrade
Ameritrade
Amex Financial Direct
Brown & Co.
Charles Schwab
Computel Securities
Datek Online
E*Trade
Empire Financial Group
Farsight
Freedom Investments
Intltrader
JB Oxford
National Discount Brokers
Net Investor
Pacific Brokerage
Protrade
Prudential Securities Inc.
Quick and Reilly Quickway Net
Savoy Discount Brokerage
Scottrade
Scottsdale Securities
Siebert
Swifttrade
Tradewell Discount Investing
Wall Street Access
Wall Street Electronica
Waterhouse
Wyse Compu-trade
www.abwatley.com
www.accutrade.com
www.ameritrade.com
www.americanexpress.com
www.brownco.com
www.schwab.com
www.rapidtrade.com
www.datek.com
www.etrade.com
www.empirenow.com
www.farsight.com
www.freedominvestments.com
www.intltrader.com
www.jboxford.com
www.ndb.com
www.netinvestor.com
www.traderpbs.com
www.protrade.com
www.prusec.com
www.quick-reilly.com
www.savoystock.com
www.scottrade.com
www.discountbroker.com
www.msiebert.com
www.swifttrade.com
www.tradewell.com
www.wsaccess.com
www.wallstreete.com
www.waterhouse.com
www.compu-trade.com
SECTION 5
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Online brokers (Europe)
Belgium
Banque Cera
Banque Commerciale de Bruxelles
Bolero (KBC)
Cortalstreet
DMRJ
Keytrade
Leleux
One Two Trade (ING)
Socit de Bourse Gestrabel
www.cera.be
www.bcb.be
www.bolero.be
www.cortal.be
www.dmrj.com
www.keytrade.com
www.leleux.be
www.12trade.be
www.gestrabel.be
France
ABAX
ABS (Actions Bourse Systme)
Barclays-Bourse
Bourse Direct
Capitol
Cortal
Courcoux Online
CPR-E*Trade
Directfinance
Euraxfin/Consors
Ferri
Fimafex
I-Bourse
NFMDA
Portzamparc
Self-trade
Wargny
www.abax.tm.fr
www.absysteme.com
www.barclays
bourse.direct.com
www.boursedirect.com
www.capitol.fr
www.cortal.fr
www.courcoux-bouvet.fr
www.cpr-etrade.com
www.directfinance.com
www.euraxfin.com
www.ferri.fr
www.fimafex.fr
www.i-bourse.fr
www.nfmda.fr
www.portzamparc.fr
www.selftrade.fr
www.wargny.fr
Germany
1822 Direkt
Bank24
Comdirect Bank
Conservative Concept
Consors
Deutsche Bank
Direkt Anlage Bank
Dresdner Bank Investmentgruppe
www.1822direkt.com
www.bank24.de
www.comdirect.de
www.conservative-concept.de
www.consors.de
www.deutsche-bank.de
www.diraba.de
www.dit.de
Italy
Cedborsa
Connect
www.cedborsa.it
www.connect.sella.it
MODULE 12
CHOOSING BROKERS
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204
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Page 204
Directa
Fin-Eco Online
Mediosim
www.directa.it
www.online.fineco.it
www.mediosim.it
Luxembourg
Ebanking.com by Fortis
Eurotrade (Stockholm Trading)
Robeco Bank Luxembourg
VMS-Keytrade
www.ebanking.com
www.eurotrade.lu
www.robecobank.lu
www.vms-keytrade.lu
Netherlands
Alex
www.alex.nl
Norway
K-Bank
Net Fonds
www.kreditkassen.no
www.netfonds.no
Spain
Ciberbroker
www.ciberbroker.es
Sweden
Aktiedirekt
Aktiespar Online
Avanza
E-Sider
E*Trade
H&Q Online
Matteus Online
Net Trade
Nord Net
Skandia Banken
Swiss Netbanking
Teletrade
www.aktiedirekt.com
www.aktiespar.com
www.avanza.se
www.esider.com
www.etrade.se
www.hq.se
www.matteus.se
www.nettradeswedbank.se
www.nordnet.nu
www.skandiabanken.se
www.swissnetbanking.com
www.teletrade.se
UK
Barclays
Charles Schwab Europe
Currency Management Corporation
DLJ Direct
E*Trade UK (Holdings) Ltd
Killick&Co
Stocktrade
Xest
www.barclays-stockbrokers.co.uk
www.schwab-europe.com
www.forex-cmc.co.uk
www.dljdirect.co.uk
www.etrade.co.uk
www.killik.co.uk
www.stocktrade.co.uk
www.xest.com
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Exercise
Write down as many headings as you can about what you
value in a broker and why they are important to you. Having
done that, check the section on what to look for. How extensive were you?
Now rank these criteria depending on which you feel is the
most important virtue of a broker. Use this ranking when
choosing your broker from the various websites listed above.
Summary
When choosing a
broker you should
think about
convenience, costs,
quick confirmation,
total account
keeping for the first
three reasons online
brokers are best.
With security no longer a significant issue, a major benefit
of online brokers is the lower cost and greater convenience. However, with such fierce competition it is most important to shop
around for one that meets your particular needs.
Determine which security, option, fund etc. you want to trade in.
Whittle down a list of the relevant brokers to those that are the biggest and
most popular.
Prioritize the criteria that you feel a broker should fulfil (see the what to
look for section above).
Score the brokers on your short-list and then rank them.
When choosing a broker you should think about convenience, costs,
quick confirmation, total account keeping for the first three reasons
online brokers are best.
Consider competitive commissions and pricing structure, hidden costs,
free pickings, e.g. free research, portfolio monitoring. Account details
include the minimum required initial funds, account balance, the interest
rate for idle funds, types of accounts available (cash, margin, short).
Look at data, price quotes: are they real-time, delayed, do they cover
financial derivatives as well as stocks?
Assess emergency back-up.
The design of the site is of course important given the time youll be
spending surfing.
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Opening an
account
MODULE
13
Questions, questions
and more questions
What is the fastest way to open an account?
Filling out an online application for an individual or joint account is currently the
fastest way to open an account.
What is the best way to check the status of my new account?
You can check the status of your new account on the homepage of the brokers
website.
Surf time
It is time to get on the net. Check out the websites of the following popular brokers (you can look at the listing in the previous module for more
good brokers).
www.etrade.com
www.schwab.com
www.ameritrade.com
www.datek.com
Now, find information about the commission rates for these brokers
and other service fees, and what unique offers they have. Try to find what
makes their product distinct from that of the other brokers check out
the research, news, charting, reports, market round-up, chat, etc. Is it
free?
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For each site give a mark out of 10 in terms of the following criteria:
layout/design does it present its products well? Is it mundane or
colourful?
ease of use how quickly can you navigate and get the information
you need?
value how much value does the site add? Would you use it even if
you did not hold an account? Think about quality.
Now rank the sites overall.
You should think methodically whenever you make further decisions
about which broker you want to apply to. Do the same exercise for any
other potential brokers. Prioritize the different things you look for in a
broker and then determine which broker performs the best.
Getting going: opening an account and all that jazz
OK, how do I go about opening an account then?
What do all those terms mean anyway?
Whats the good hardware to have? Have I got it?
What about the software that gives me the edge?
Setting up
Can I open an account?
Sure you can, but it can depend on which country youre a resident in. For example, a US citizen may not be able to open
an account with a UK online broker. But dont worry, the e-brokers account
opening process will make all that clear.
Also, youll almost always need to be over 18 and have a bank account.
Most brokers allow you to set up an account online in minutes. There are
usually no set-up charges and no requirement for a minimum balance either.
But note that some brokers dont yet allow a joint account.
What sort of account do I need?
These are the different types.
1 Cash account. The simplest form of account. A minimum opening balance
is commonly required. You can trade only if you have the cash in your
account. No credit is given and youll have to maintain a balance
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(sometimes termed the equity balance) to keep your account alive. This
neednt always be as much as the opening balance though. Some brokers
may charge you if you dont trade for a certain period.
2 Margin account. Essentially a credit facility enabling you to trade without
necessarily having all the cash in your account. A proportion of the price is
usually needed, but the rest comes from a loan with interest. The loan will
be from the broker or one of its affiliates so it might not always be at the
most competitive rate.
Margin trading is when a broker lends an investor money with which to
trade, using the cash and stocks the trader has with the broker as collateral. If you have $10,000 in your account, your broker may lend you a further $10,000 on margin. Imagine you bought Intel shares without using
margin, and they rose 50%. You would of course have a 50% return on
your $10,000. But using the margin you would increase returns by leveraging your capital. If you used your margin, you would have the same
50% return but this time on $20,000. That represents a 100% return on
your initial $10,000.
A margin account lets you make a secured loan against your own portfolio.
The advantage
is that you do not have to sell any of your portfolio to obtain the cash.
Furthermore, you have no repayment schedule. You are free to repay the
loan at any time, unless your collateral falls below the required amount.
While most investors use the borrowed cash to buy additional securities,
you can use it for any purpose. However, the wholly owned securities in
your portfolio are collateral for the loan. You will also need a margin
account if you are engaging in short sales.
But
Margin trading adds risk to an already risky environment. If Intel shares had
fallen 50% in the boxed example and you did not trade on margin you
would have lost $5000. If you used margin, you would have lost all your
initial capital of $10,000. In consequence, you have an amplified loss.
Under broker margin rules, if your stocks fall sharply you may be required to
provide additional cash, otherwise the broker may sell them without any
notification and potentially at a substantial loss to the investor.
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Margin trading is only really for the more experienced trader and not
the beginner as the risk is that you lose your money a lot quicker.
Not all brokers offer a margin facility. Those that do will do all the
calculations for you in terms of how much you can borrow to invest.
3 Short account. A short sale involves selling securities that you dont actually
own with the intent of buying them back at a lower price. It takes quite a
sophisticated kind of broker to offer this facility many brokers wont have
it.
How do I set it up? Typically, you can be up and running in minutes by
completing a simple online registration form on the brokers site. Have your
bank details to hand and follow the on-screen instructions.
Three simple steps
The procedures for opening an account are explained on the particular
brokers website as part of the procedure. But, generally this is how it
goes:
1 Fill out an online application. Submit the application electronically or
print and mail your signed application and initial deposit. You must be
at least 18 years old to open and trade.
2 Return your completed application forms to activate your account.
When your account becomes activated, the broker will send your
account number, usually by e-mail.
3 Fund your account. There may be a minimum balance so check first.
The fastest way to activate your account is to include a cheque with
your printed and signed application forms. You cannot usually place a
trade until your initial funding is reflected in your account portfolio. The
broker will send a notification any time funds are deposited to your
account.
Once the account is set up, passwords and account numbers confirmed,
access login will require an account number and password or PIN (see Fig
13.1).
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Do I need special hardware or software? No. Anyone
with an internet connection can trade online. Having said
Anyone with an
that, make sure you read the next chapter, just in case you
internet connection
have an unusual system.
can trade online.
You should try to ensure you have the latest Microsoft
Internet Explorer (www.microsoft.com) or Netscape Navigator (www.netscape.com). These days most internet service
providers give a secure connection. If in doubt verify with your ISPs customer support people. One of the advantages of an online broker is that you
dont have to access your account from the same PC you can trade anywhere, any time. Just go to the brokers website and log in with your user
name and password which you would have been given when you opened
the account (Fig 13.1).There I go, getting carried away again.
FIGURE 13.1
Typical login screen
Exercises
1 What are the differences between a cash, margin and short account?
2 What do they involve?
See below for answers.
What you have learned
MODULE 13
To open a trading account you will need to have a bank account.
Opening an account really is not that difficult. Go to the brokers website (see
below) and follow the instructions.
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Remember it is in the interests of the e-brokers to make it as easy as possible
for you. It can be fiddly, but take your time and youll be fine. Trust me. Or just
call up their customer services number as you go through the form. A simple
cash account requires a minimum opening balance and you can trade only if
you have the cash in your account. No credit is given and you will have to
maintain a balance.
Margin accounts offer a credit facility enabling you to trade without necessarily having all the cash in your account. A proportion of the price is usually
needed, but the rest comes from a loan from the broker. You do not have to
sell any of your portfolio to obtain the cash. But margin trading adds further
risk under broker margin rules, if your stocks fall sharply you may be
required to provide additional cash, otherwise the broker may sell them without any notification and potentially at a substantial loss to the investor.
A short sale involves selling securities that you dont actually own with the
intent of buying them back at a lower price. It takes quite a sophisticated kind
of broker to offer this facility.
Placing your first trade
What should I know before I begin investing?
Before placing your first
trade, I recommend placing a practice trade in the trading demo section of
the broker site. Because the trading demo mirrors the real thing, you can
simulate an actual trade without spending a cent.
When can I place my first trade? If you applied for your account online
and received an instant approval, you may be able to trade immediately,
depending on your broker. Of course, payment for this
trade must be received. If you applied by mail or your
online application was not approved immediately, you may
Remember
be eligible to place your first trade within one business day
payment for purchase
of receipt of your application.As soon as you receive a welcome message with your account number, you can access
transactions is due by
your account online.
the trade settlement
Remember payment for purchase transactions is due
date. You should not
by the trade settlement date.You should not wait until you
receive your confirmation in the mail to send your payment.
wait until you receive
Similarly, if you sell securities, you must deliver the certifiyour confirmation in
cates by the settlement date. Some accounts will require a
the mail to send your
deposit of funds or securities before trades can be placed.
These accounts are referred to as cash-on-hand accounts. If
payment.
you have a cash-on-hand account, you will be notified.
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How do I start trading?
Once youve opened an account
and logged in youll need to put money into your account
before you can start trading. Now you just have to decide
what to buy.
What are the stages for placing a trade online? Brokers
vary, but typically youll need to give the following information.
1 Account number and PIN your PIN will often be sent
separately under plain cover, like a credit card PIN.
Once youve opened an
account and logged in
youll need to put
money into your
account before you can
start trading.
2 Your ID the name you registered in. (Sometimes called
user name, etc. you get the idea.)
3 Action required buy, sell, sell short, buy to cover, etc.
4 Order size number of shares.
5 Type of order market price, limit, stop, stop limit (see Table 13.1).
6 Price if order is a limit, stop or stop limit.
7 Duration how long offer is to continue (e.g. good for the day offers lapse
at close of the days trading).
Do I have to place orders on-screen?
It makes sense to use the on-screen
facility if youre keen to maximize the efficiency of online trading (see Fig
13.2, p. 214), but there may be times when this isnt so desirable. Brokers
acknowledge this and often offer different methods of placing orders. In addition to on-screen ordering youll commonly be able to place orders by touchtone telephone, by fax or even for those big, complex orders by speaking
directly to a broker. However, if it isnt placed online, it usually costs a little
more.
What sort of stocks can I buy?
Most brokers will let you buy the stocks
on just about all, except perhaps the more esoteric, exchanges of the country you are in. In the US that means NYSE, Nasdaq stocks of course, and usually more. In other words, dont worry, youll have loads to choose from.
Can I trade mutual funds?
It depends on your broker. Check this out as
a feature when deciding on your broker.
Can I open a margin or options account? Again, it depends. If you can,
you need to fill out the margin and options section on the application.The
broker will review this information, and if appropriate will extend margin
or option privileges to the account.
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An order screen
Can I trade OTC bulletin boards, pink sheets or penny stocks?
It
depends on your broker. You may be able to buy and sell over-the-counter
bulletin board (OTCBB), pink sheets and penny stocks via the internet, interactive voice recognition (IVR) telephone system or with a broker. OTCBB
securities usually represent shares of new or small companies, which are
traded by dealers via manual procedures. But note that investing in OTCBB
securities can be very risky and you may lose all or part of your investment
in a short period of time.
In consequence, the trading rules for OTCBB securities differ significantly
from listed or Nasdaq securities. For example, only limit orders to buy, and
limit or market orders to sell will be accepted for the regular market sessions. Quotes for OTCBB securities are not guaranteed as the securities trade
on a manual basis, and frequently real-time quote information, or even firm quotes, may not be available.You should
also be aware that frequent symbol changes, additions and
Take the time to
de-listings occur in the OTCBB market. Take the time to
carefully research the
carefully research the company and examine your investment objectives.
company and examine
your investment
objectives.
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What price do I trade at? You trade at the real-time
price, that is, the price offered in the market place. But bear
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in mind that many of the research tools provided to you by your broker will
be delayed by 15 minutes. So youre buying at the true price but using slightly old analysis. If the research is delayed it will tell you nearby.
How long does it all take? How long do you want it to take? Assuming
you have money in your account and know what you want to buy, you can
commence trading right away. If the stock market is open and you want to
buy at market price, your order will be executed immediately. See When
can I trade below for information about after-hours trading.
However, during busy periods you may not be able to access the brokers
site, or if you do, your order may not reach them through the internet immediately. In other words, there can sometimes be delays.With most major reputable brokers, this should not happen.
Is there any advice about what to buy?
At the end of the day its your
call you have to make a decision what to buy. But most brokers offer
research and analytical tools to help you make an informed decision (see Fig
13.3, p. 216).Typically, a brokerage site will enable you to view a graph of
the price and other trading history of a particular stock.You should also be
able to get news updates about a specific company and compare its performance against similar companies.Also, by reading this coursebook, youll
be better able to understand what all those tools can do for you and make
more informed decisions.
How easy is it to sell? This will vary according to the particular broker
youve registered with.Generally,youll simply have to log on in the prescribed
way entering your ID and password is typically whats called for then click
onto the trading page and select the shares you wish to sell.There will usually
be clear, step-by-step instructions on the screen. Figure 13.4 (p. 217) shows a
typical market overview screen that will allow you to navigate your account
easily.
Whats a nominee account?
Sometimes youll find that
your broker refers to a nominee account. This is simply a
means of facilitating the rapid processing of each trade.The
broker holds your shares in a pooled nominee account.You
remain beneficially entitled to your shares (i.e. you still
own them) but the nominee account allows the broker to
process your trade immediately, rather than waiting for the
formal legal certificates to be completed. Practically all
online accounts are nominee accounts.
Sometimes youll find
that your broker refers
to a nominee account.
This is simply a means
of facilitating the rapid
processing of each
trade.
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FIGURE 13.3
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Brokers give ample information for an informed decision
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FIGURE 13.4
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Typical market overview screen
Can I access my account any time?
Yes, most brokers permit access
round the clock, seven days a week, all year (Fig 13.5).
What about evenings and weekends?
Although you can access your
account and place trades any time, trades will be executed only when the
stock exchange is open. Beware: trades placed outside opening times will
be executed at the price when the market next opens this may vary from
the price at the time you place the trade. For this reason, youll find that
FIGURE 13.5
Check the status of your account 24/7
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brokers will usually ask you to set a limit order for every out-of-hours trade
placed.
Exercises
1 List the stages/information necessary for placing a trade online.
2 What is a nominee account?
3 Assess the pros and cons of placing a trade outside stock market opening
hours.
Answers
1 a
b
c
d
e
f
g
Account number and PIN.
Your ID (user name, etc.).
Action required buy, sell, sell short, buy to cover, etc.
Order size number of shares.
Type of order market price, limit, stop, stop limit.
Price if order is a limit, stop or stop limit.
Duration how long offer is to continue (e.g. good for the day offers lapse
at close of the days trading).
2 A nominee account is a means of facilitating the processing of each trade.
The broker holds your shares in a pooled nominee account. You remain entitled to your shares, but the nominee account allows the broker to process
your trade immediately, rather than waiting for the formal legal certificates to
be completed. Its like the system used by banks to process your money and
hold it for you it keeps administrative costs down without undermining your
ownership of the shares.
3 Trades placed outside opening times will allow more flexibility in your trading. You may not have time in the day to get on the net and execute a trade.
However, the trade will be executed at the price when the market next opens,
and this may vary from the price at the time you place the trade. The share
price tends to jump at the start of trading on each day as expectations have
changed overnight and trading expectations have not settled at a consensus.
For this reason, youll find that brokers will usually ask you to set a limit order
for every out-of-hours trade placed.
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What you have learned
The best way to understand what the process of placing a trade involves is to
use the trading demo on the brokers site (check out the websites below and
start surfing). Setting up and starting to trade on a nominee account is very
quick if you send funds with your application.
You do not have to place your orders on-screen, rather you can phone or fax.
You can trade after closing and almost all broker sites act as a one-stopshop, providing trade in most shares and derivatives, extensive research, news,
chat, etc; you can spend all day and night in front of a computer screentragic
thought.
Types of orders
So I just place my order and go? Not quite.After you have decided whether
you plan to buy or sell a stock, the typical order ticket will give you a few
more choices.You can choose between a market order, a limit order, a stop
order and a stop limit order. Each of these choices has its own implications,
as seen in Table 13.1. It sounds complicated, but most people start with
market orders, then, as they become more confident, move to the others.
Soon youll be talking stop limit order placement like an old pro.
TA B L E 1 3 . 1
Description of
fill
The different types of orders
Market
Limit
Stop
Stop limit
Filled at best
price available
when order
reaches the
market.
May be filled
when the stock
trades at the limit
price you set.
Will be filled at
best price
available in the
market after the
stock trades at
your stop price.
Will be filled at
the stop price, if
possible, after the
order is
activated.
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A market order is an instruction to buy or sell a stock at the best market
price available at the moment.
For example, you may want to buy 100 shares of XYZ stock. If the current market for XYZ is 50 bid and 50 1/8 ask, you may or may not get the
stock at 50 1/8.
Market orders will definitely be filled, but you cannot be sure of the
price. Prices will vary with current conditions, and these conditions are not
always reflected on your computer screen. The actual price at which your
order is filled may be better or worse than you expected.
A limit order lets you place a price restriction on your transaction. You
indicate that you are only willing to buy or sell a stock at a certain price or
better. Your order is not filled unless the stock trades at that level. Placing
a limit order is not a guarantee that your trade will be executed at your
limit price. It does, however, eliminate the risk that your order will be filled
at a price worse than you expected.
For example, if you want to buy CrazyGuy stock at $80 a share once
again, and the market price is 80 bid and 80 1/8 offer, your order cannot
be filled immediately. If somebody comes to sell the stock at $80, then
your order will be filled if it is next in line for execution. If more buyers
enter the pit and drive up the stock price, your order will not be filled.
A stop order is an order to buy or sell a stock at the market price once
the price reaches or passes through a specified point, called the stop
price. This type of order is generally used by people who own a stock and
want to make sure they sell out if the stock price starts to drop. The stop
price placed on a sell stop order must be below the current bid price of
the security.
For example, if you buy 100 shares of Maniac Driver at $50 a share and
you want to protect yourself from a potential loss, you might place a stop
order. If you placed a stop order at $45 a share, the moment Maniac Driver
traded at $45, your order would become live and the broker or specialist
would sell it to the highest bidder. Stop orders in volatile issues will not
guarantee an execution at or near the stop price. Once triggered, they are
competing with other incoming market orders.
Stop orders can be placed for buy orders as well. The stop price specified for a buy order must be above the current asking price.
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A stop limit order performs like a stop order with one major exception.
Once the order is activated (by the stock trading at or through the stop
price), it does not become a market order. Instead, it becomes a limit order
with a limit price equal to the former stop price.
For example, you place a stop limit order to sell stock with a stop price
of $45 a share. As with the stop order, once the stock trades at $45, your
order is triggered. However, the broker canot sell it below $45 a share no
matter what happens.
The advantage of this order is that you set a minimum price at which
your order can be filled. The disadvantage is that your order may not be
filled in certain fast market conditions. In this case, if the stock keeps
moving down, you will keep losing money.
Fill or kill (FOK) is an instruction to either fill the entire order at the limit
price given or better, or cancel it.
How do I know if my trade has gone through? You should always
receive on-screen confirmation of executed trades in your secure area.
Trades placed with a limit attached, either in or out of market hours, will
also appear on the screen as pending. On top of online confirmation, you
should receive a formal contract (often by e-mail).
What if I make a mistake when placing an order? Its not in anybodys
interests to let you make an erroneous trade. Online brokers usually require
you to confirm the details of your trade at least once and more often than
not, twice. But theres only so much an automated brokerage system can do
to protect you, so make a mistake twice and you will have entered into a
contract on that basis so be careful.
Exercises
1 What is a stop order?
2 What is a limit order?
3 What does FOK mean?
For answers see below.
Its not in anybodys
interests to let you
make an erroneous
trade.
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What you have learned
Trades are simple to make. You will get on-screen confirmation of your trade and
be asked to confirm your choice.
A number of orders are possible:
A market order is an instruction to buy or sell a stock at the best market
price available at the moment.
A limit order lets you place a price restriction on your transaction. You indicate that you are only willing to buy or sell a stock at a certain price or better.
Your order is not filled unless the stock trades at that level. This is not a guarantee that your trade will be executed at your limit price but does eliminate
the risk that your order will be filled at a price worse than you expected.
A stop order is an order to buy or sell a stock at the market price once the
price reaches or passes through a specified point, called the stop price, generally used if you want to make sure you sell out if the stock price starts to
drop.
A stop limit order performs like a stop order with one major exception.
Once the order is activated, it does not become a market order. Instead, it
becomes a limit order with a limit price equal to the former stop price.
FOK (fill or kill) means that you want to either fill the entire order at the limit
price given or better, or cancel the order.
Using your account
How do I get money into my account?
The standard ways of transferring
money are just as applicable to online trading accounts: debit card payment,
bank transfer and cheques. But note you can only use a
debit card or direct debit once the transaction has been
confirmed.Your broker may not offer all of these. But one
is for sure
thing is for sure they want your money, so they will have
your money, lots of easy explanations on how to transfer money into
the account.
One thing
they want
so they will have lots of
easy explanations on
how to transfer money
into the account.
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How do I extract money from my account?
You can get
money out of your account at any time up to the cleared
funds balance in your cash account. Just nominate a destination bank, usually the one given when you registered
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with the broker. Many brokers dont charge for transfers, but give yourself
three working days at least for the transfer to be effected.
How can I close my account?
Not usually a problem. Ensure that you notify the broker in writing remembering to keep a copy of the letter. Your
remaining shares will be transferred to your nominated broker or to you in
paper form.The latter will often attract a handling fee.
Can I keep track of what my stocks are worth?
Simple your broker
will provide a means of clicking straight into your portfolio so that you can
keep tabs on your holdings. To view your up-to-the-minute share dealings
some sites require you to re-enter your password and ID.
Can I move my existing holdings of shares into my account?
Your broker will have an online explanation of how to do this. Usually it is the broker to whom you are transferring who will try to do most of the work for
you once you give them your details online and confirm you want to transfer to them.
How do I withdraw my shares from my account?
You can withdraw
shares from your account by making a request to your broker.This can be
online or in person via your brokers customer services team if you need a
little more assistance.Again, transfer in paper form will usually attract a fee.
How will dividend payments be handled?
You will receive any dividends accruing to your shares straight into your cash account. All tax
vouchers relating to dividend receipt will be collected by your broker and
forwarded to you annually for the tax year.
What if I am a foreign resident?
Many e-brokers service foreign
accounts. However, due to the fact that overseas mail delivery is not conducive to meeting a three-day settlement, they often require funds or securities to be in the account prior to placing orders.
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Charges
What will I be charged per trade?
Online brokerages are not always known for the clarity of their pricing
schedules. A good way of selecting an online broker is to choose one with
a simple pricing structure. A good broker might, for example, keep things
to a simple charge of, say, $10 per trade plus a quarterly management fee.
Some brokers are more competitive, such as Ameritrade at $8 per
online trade. But note that you may be charged more for touchtone or
direct broker access trades. Brokers will typically charge you an additional
fee for limit, stop and stop limit orders.
Interest rates
How will interest rates be calculated?
When your money is sitting in your nominee account youd expect it to be
accruing interest, wouldnt you? Every broker will differ slightly, but rates
are always similar in my experience except for special offers.
What you have learned
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You can transfer cash in and out of your account within a couple of days by
using standard means.
Transferring holdings will take longer than cash but can always be done by
following the procedure made clear by your broker.
Dividends will accrue straight into your cash account.
It is important that you decipher the brokers pricing schedule. Make note
of the interest rate you receive for idle funds and compare brokers.
Your broker will provide a monitor for keeping track of how much your stocks
are worth.
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Exercises
1 How would you close your account?
2 What happens to your dividends?
3 What is a stop limit order?
4 What is a market order?
5 What are the risks associated with margin trading?
6 What website security features should you be looking for when choosing an
online broker?
Some suggested answers
1 Closing your account: ensure that you notify the broker in writing and
keep a copy of your letter. Your remaining shares will be transferred to your
nominated broker or to you in paper form. The latter will often attract a
handling fee.
2 You will receive any dividends accruing to your shares straight into your
cash account. All tax vouchers relating to dividend receipt will be collected
by your broker and forwarded to you annually for the tax year.
3 A stop limit order is like a stop order (buy/sell a stock once price passes
through a certain stop price) except, once the order is activated (by the
stock trading at or through the stop price), it does not become a market
order. Instead it becomes a limit order with a limit price equal to the former
stop price.
4 A market order is an instruction to buy or sell a stock at the best market
price available at the moment.
5 Margin trading adds further risk as you have an amplified potential loss.
Under broker margin rules, if your stocks fall sharply you may be required to
provide additional cash, otherwise the broker may sell them without any
notification and potentially at a substantial loss to the investor.
6 Site security: the broker will give audit trails of all trades and cancellations,
which are available for you to inspect, some form of insurance protection
(usually Securities Investor Protection Corporation, SIPC), ensuring client
funds are either segregated or protected should the firm have financial
difficulties, the use of firewalls that prevent access from the outside
through links, etc., and the use of account numbers, user names and
passwords.
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Summary
Opening an account really is not that difficult. Go to the brokers website
and follow the instructions.
The best way to understand what the process of placing a trade involves is
using the trading demo on the brokers site.
You can trade after closing and almost all broker sites act as a one-stopshop, providing trade in most shares and derivatives, extensive research,
news, chat, etc. You can spend all day and night in front of a computer
screentragic thought.
Trades are simple to make you will get on-screen confirmation of your
trade and you will be asked to confirm your choice.
A number of orders are possible: market order, limit order, stop order,
stop limit order.
Transferring cash in and out of your account can be done within a couple
of days by using standard means.
Its easyor maybe not.
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MODULE
Planning trades
14
You cant just go out there and wildly speculate.
B I L L L I P S C H U LT Z ,
FORMER GLOBAL HEAD OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE, SALOMON BROTHERS
What you will learn
A trading plan is probably the most important part of any trade. It is also
the most neglected.
We examine your trading strategy in brief and what planning a trade ought
to involve.
Then you will be able to use this in an actual trade and produce an actual
trading tactic.
To avoid the many pitfalls of trading we also examine keeping a journal,
diversification, your tolerance to risk and risk management, and the types
of traders that fail.
We will devise a template for you to use when analyzing investment
decisions, and a transactions record at the end of the module.
Module outline
Learn to produce and use a trading strategy and trading tactics as part of a
trading plan.
See how to keep a journal as part of profitable trading.
Examine the types of traders that fail.
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The unfortunate
answer is that nothing
works and everything
works.
Find yourself (i.e. your tolerance to risk).
Manage risk, understand proper diversification (risktolerance test).
Share analysis template and transaction template
(photocopy and fill out for record keeping and assessment
purposes).
What works? Building a trading strategy
So, having examined both fundamental and technical analysis in broad outline together with some common resources followers of those techniques
use, you may well be tempted to ask what works. Does looking for analysts
upgrades of stock performances work? Does an examination of stock
momentum work?
The unfortunate answer is that nothing works and everything works.
Nothing works, because if it did it would be consistently profitable and the
puzzle of the markets would be solved. Everything works in that all the individual techniques are successful part of the time that is why people follow
them.
DIY trading strategy
So where do we go from here? The best advice to give you is:
1 Read a lot more about fundamental and technical analysis from the
recommended reading.
2 Develop a trading strategy.
A trading strategy is a set of rules which must be met before you enter a
trade, as opposed to trading tactics, which are the actual specific plans for
what to do once you enter a trade (Fig 14.1).
HOT TIP
Every individuals trading strategy will vary and likely be unique, based on
their own perspectives.
This is a very simple guide to building a trading strategy to give you
some idea of how it ought to be done. As you actually do it you will begin
to realize the complexities and your plan will doubtless become more
sophisticated.
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FIGURE 14.1
Page 229
Steps to building a trading strategy
Trading
plan
Trading
strategy
Trading
tactic
Select some indicators
Having examined what fundamental and technical analysts commonly look for, and having done some reading about those
subjects, choose some indicators you think may be potentially indicative of
a rising market.
Hypothesize!
Choose some rules you consider worth testing, bearing in
mind the period of time you want to be in and out of the market for each
trade. Choose a target price for exit, a stop-loss figure and other circumstances for exit.
Example
A fundamental analyst of company stocks may
choose to buy a stock only if the following rules are met:
P/E ratio less than 8;
analyst recommendations all being buy or higher;
profit margin of 10% or higher;
dividend yield of 13% or higher;
Choose a target price
for exit, a stop-loss
figure and other
circumstances for exit.
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target price: rise of 15%;
stop loss: drop of 10% or below the 9-week low;
exit if one of these fundamental factors changes adversely.
A technical analyst may choose stock purchase rules based on:
MACD crossover;
stochastic crossover;
a bounce off a trendline;
target price: rise of 15%;
stop loss: drop of 10%;
exit if one of the above technical factors changes adversely (Fig 14.2).
Important
There is a tendency when testing trading rules to overfit the
rules (i.e. amend them) to the data at hand so the results are good for those
data only. To avoid this, do some out-of-sample testing, i.e. test the same
rules on a completely different set of data. But beware: it may be that your
FIGURE 14.2
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trading rules do genuinely only work with that one company, both historically and in the future, and you may be
throwing away a good system by out-of-sample testing. To
avoid this, do some paper trades on the same stock as well.
When testing and
developing look for a
balance of
probability.
Test Now test the rules. Select some stocks and obtain
their historical price charts (see skeleton plans for sites).
Next see what would have happened had you used your
trading strategy.What would a notional $20,000 have been
at the end of one year, after dealing costs? Is the return better than bank
rates of return? Did you beat the Dow or a typical mutual fund?
The preponderance of evidence rule When testing and developing look
for a balance of probability. Examine many different indicators, e.g. news
stories on your product, analysts views, market momentum. When there is
a preponderance of evidence suggesting price movement, make a paper
trade. Keep doing this until you are comfortable that what you are doing
works. If it does not, find out what aspects do not work, e.g. the technical
indicators are always wrong, and either amend or ditch that particular indicator be ruthless.
Always paper trade with different methods of selecting trades. For
instance, you may try to combine stock filters with technical indicators and
plot the results together with other systems, and go for what appears to
make sense and is profitable.When you find a trading strategy you are fairly
happy with, you are ready to trade.
Action plan 1 The plan, the strategy, the tactic
1 Decide whether you need or want to find out more about fundamental and
technical analysis.
2 Surf sites which provide analysis for your product choice.
3 Choose the site(s) which you like the best for fundamental and/or technical
analysis.
4 Develop a trading strategy using the guidelines provided
in this chapter, then test it to satisfaction (if need be,
return to Step 2 in this programme of action).
Always paper trade
with different
methods of selecting
trades.
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HOT TIPS
How to back test well
1 I tend to test one indicator at a time and add more and more and see
how that affects results.
2 Look at a chart and identify areas in which your indicators should produce signals and then find indicators that tend to.
3 Are the results very volatile, e.g. large losses and profits (even though
overall profitable)? Can you handle such losses along the way?
4 Do not just test bull markets, test bear and sideways or find a different
set of indicators for each type of market (Fig 14.3).
FIGURE 14.3
Looking to buy
HOT TIP
Riskreward As a rule of thumb your upside target should be a greater
percentage than your stop-loss.
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Action Plan 2 Creating a trading tactic
1 Using the trading rules contained in your trading strategy, go through the
relevant stocks, etc.
2 Select the best possibilities for price moves. Remember the preponderance
of evidence rule.
3 For each possibility list the pros and cons (see Table 14.1). Select the best of
the best to trade.
4 Set an upside target. What do you expect the price to reach and in what
time frame? You may want to attach a rough probability of this occurring.
5 Set a stop-loss a point at which you will exit the trade: either a specific
price level or a percentage.
6 Set a point at which you will sell irrespective of 4 and 5 in this list, i.e. you
may get negative news on the company and decide to sell even though the
stop-loss has not been reached.
TA B L E 1 4 . 1
Part of a simple trading tactic
Pros
Cons
MACD crossover
occurred
Sector undergone
long bull run
Stochastic crossover
SAR upward
Trendline bounce
All analysts buy or strong buy
Sector strong
HOT TIP
The mind of a trader
Stick to your plan. Do not start hoping for price moves or denying losses.
Try to keep objective. Do not get attached to a position: each day is a clean
slate. To learn more about trading plans and trading like a professional you
might consider reading my book The Mind of a Trader (FT Pitman Publishing, 1998).
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Exercises
1 What is a trading strategy?
2 Outline the process necessary in order to create a trading plan.
3 What is overfitting? What is significant about it?
4 Look at and follow action plan 1. For example, you may decide that you want
to concentrate on technicals such as MACDs, stochastics, trendlines and
stop-losses with a few fundamentals, e.g. P/E and PEG ratios, in which case
you would look at www.bigcharts.com, www.tradingcharts.com,
www.etrade.com, etc. Develop a trading strategy keeping in mind the issues
you have outlined for questions 2 and 3.
5 Now follow action plan 2.
What you have learned
A trading strategy is a set of rules which must be met before you enter a trade,
as opposed to trading tactics, which are the actual specific plans for what to do
once you enter a trade.
Choose some indicators you think may be potentially indicative of a rising
market (or a falling one). Choose a target price for exit, a stop-loss figure and
other circumstances for exit, i.e. hypothesize.
Beware of overfitting there is a tendency when testing trading rules to
overfit the rules (i.e. amend them) to the data at hand so the results are good
for those data only. To avoid this, do some out-of-sample testing and do some
paper trades on the same stock as well.
Test by selecting some stocks and obtain their historical price charts. Next see
what would have happened had you used your trading strategy. What would a
notional $20,000 have been at the end of one year, after dealing costs?
When there is a preponderance of evidence suggesting price movement,
make a paper trade. Keep doing this until you are comfortable that what you
are doing works. If it does not, pinpoint which aspects do not work and amend.
Test one indicator at a time. Look at a chart and identify areas in which your
indicators should produce signals. Are the results very volatile? Test bull, bear
and sideways markets.
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Notes
Journal keeping
I am regularly asked by traders what they can do to improve
their trading. One of the easiest and simplest steps is to
keep a journal. Imagine all that information and experience
you collect as you trade.
Without a journal you are throwing away so much of it.
Without a journal you are in serious danger of repeating
your mistakes.
Keeping a journal is a money and risk management
technique. By identifying possible trading problems, you
can start to resolve them. So, make journal keeping a
goal.
I am regularly asked by
traders what they can
do to improve their
trading. One of the
easiest and simplest
steps is to keep a
journal.
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What to record
1 A copy of your goals. Note your progress in achieving them.
2 The anatomy of every trade. Write down, from the moment you started
analyzing a stock to the moment after you sold it, how you felt at each key
moment about every activity you undertook. You may want to compare
that with what you know about how you should have
reacted, in light of what you have read in this book. For example, how did
you feel as you approached your stop-loss?
3 What feels good and what feels uncomfortable about what you are
doing.
Remember to keep your notes clear and well presented. You will have to
return to them at a later date.
Seven traders
There are many types of trader.An awareness of the varieties when looking
at your trading plan allows you to avoid the pitfalls.
Disciplined
This is the ideal type of trader.You take losses and profits with
ease.You focus on your system and follow it with discipline.Trading is usually a relaxed activity.You appreciate that a loss does not make for a loser.
Doubter
You find it difficult to execute at signals. You doubt your own
abilities. You need to develop self-confidence. Perhaps you should paper
trade.
Blamer All losses are someone elses fault.You blame bad fills, your broker
for picking up the phone too slowly, your system for not being perfect.You
need to regain your objectivity and self-responsibility.
Victim
Trading is usually a
relaxed activity. You
appreciate that a loss
does not make for a
loser.
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Here you blame yourself.You feel the market is
out to get you.You start becoming superstitious in your
trading.
Optimist
You start thinking,Its only money, Ill make it
back later.You think all losses will bounce back to a profit
or that you will start trading properly tomorrow.
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Gambler
You are in it for the thrill. Money is a side issue.
Risk and reward analysis hardly figure in your trades; you
want to be a player; you want the buzz and excitement.
Timid You enter a trade but panic at the sight of a profit
and take it far too soon. Fear rules your trading.
You are in it for the
thrill. Money is a side
issue.
What you have learned
Keeping a journal is a risk management technique. Without a journal you are
in serious danger of repeating your mistakes. By identifying possible trading
problems, you can start to resolve them. So, make journal keeping a goal.
There are many types of traders. Above all be disciplined, take profits and
losses with ease. Focus on your system.
Notes
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How much risk can you tolerate?
You might need to pursue an aggressive investment strategy but you might
also have a conservative stomach. Greater volatility is double-edged; the
potential upside is bigger, but the potential downside is bigger.The issue is,
where do your preferences lie?
Conservative risk-takers are likely to define risk as potential loss of their
principal. Concerned more about safety than anything else, theyre more
willing to accept a lower rate of return in exchange for a lower degree of
risk.This may mean that they choose fixed-income investment tools such as
bonds and even a higher percentage of money in their portfolio.
More aggressive risk-takers are less willing to tie up too much money
over long periods in low-yielding fixed investments, preferring the bigger
potential returns the riskier stock market may offer. Of course, your degree
of risk tolerance can change over time as you approach certain goals. For
example, investors tend to hold on too long to falling stock (risk loving on
downturn) and can sell too quickly on the upside.
HOT TIP
Assessing and reassessing your investing personality regularly is crucial.
Find yourself.
Important
Because each of your financial goals may be weighted differently, you may want to consider your total portfolio as a collection of several goal-specific portfolios when making the evaluation. It is also important
to consider your age, the time horizon for each of your specific goals, and
your income and asset base.
Exercise risk tolerance
An investors risk tolerance in making investment decisions can depend on
investment goals as well as the investors personality. The following exercise will
measure your reaction to market risk, weight the relative importance of your
goals and uncover your personal investment preferences. Give yourself the
points in the brackets for your answer.
1 The degree to which the value of an investment moves up and down is
referred to as volatility. In general, more volatile investments tend to grow
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faster than more stable investments they have a larger
potential upside. However, volatile investments are more
Your degree of risk
risky, since there is no guarantee the upturns will be larger
tolerance can change
than the downturns. How much volatility are you willing
over time as you
to accept?
a Slight. I do not want to lose money, even if it means my
approach certain goals.
returns are small. (1)
b Some. I am willing to accept the occasional loss as long
as my money is in sound, high-quality investments that
can be expected to grow over time. (3)
c Considerable. I am willing to take substantial risk in pursuit of
significantly higher returns. (5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
2 Suppose your investment portfolio contains a significant portion of large
company stocks in addition to several other assets. Large company stocks
have averaged a compound annual return of 11% over the past 72 years.
However, if large company stocks had lost 18% of their value in the past year,
what would you do?
a Sell the large company stock portion of my investment portfolio and
realize the loss. (1)
b Sell some, but not all, of the large company stock portion. (2)
c Continue to hold the large company stock portion of my investment
portfolio, following a consistent long-term strategy. (3)
d Buy more large company stocks. (4)
TOTAL POINTS_________
3 Please provide your response to the following statement: Given my investment time horizon, I am willing to accept significant fluctuations in the value
of my investments to achieve potentially higher long-term returns.
a Strongly disagree. (0)
b Disagree. (1)
c Agree. (2)
d Strongly agree. (5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
4 Which of the following statements is most true about your risk tolerance and
the way you wish to invest to achieve your goal(s)? My investment should
a be completely safe; I do not wish to run the risk of losing any principal at
any time. (1)
b generate regular income that I can spend. (2)
c generate some current income and also grow in value over time. (3)
d grow over time, but I would also like to generate some current income.
(4)
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e grow substantially in value over time. I do not need to generate current
income. (5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
5 An investor must be prepared to expose his/her investments to increased
chances for loss in attempting to achieve higher expected returns. The following statements represent possible outcomes for three hypothetical portfolios at the end of one year. Which investment portfolio would you be most
comfortable holding?
a Portfolio A has a likely return of 6%, and there is a 10% chance for loss
at the end of the year. (2)
b Portfolio B has a likely return of 10%, and there is an 18% chance for
loss at the end of the year. (3)
c Portfolio C has a likely return of 14%, and there is a 25% chance for
loss at the end of the year. (4)
TOTAL POINTS_________
6 I understand the value of my portfolio will fluctuate over time. However, the
maximum loss in any one-year period that I am prepared to accept is:
a 0%
(1)
b 5%
(2)
c 10%
(3)
d 20%
(4)
e 30%+
(5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
7 Investments in which the principal is 100% safe sometimes earn less than
the inflation rate. This means that, while no money is lost, there is a loss of
purchasing power. With respect to your goal(s), which of the following is
most true?
a My money should be 100% safe, even if it means my returns do not
keep up with inflation. (0)
b It is important that the value of my investments keeps pace with
inflation. I am willing to risk an occasional loss in principal so that my
investments may grow at about the same rate as inflation over time. (3)
c It is important that my investments grow faster than inflation. I am
willing to accept a fair amount of risk to try to achieve this. (5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
8 Which statement best describes your main concern when selecting an investment?
a The potential for loss. (1)
b Mostly the potential for loss, but also the potential for gain. (2)
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c Mostly the potential for gain, but I am still concerned about the potential
for loss. (3)
d The potential for gain. (4)
TOTAL POINTS_________
9 Consider the following two investments, A and B. Investment A provides an
average annual return of 7% with minimal risk of loss of principal. Investment
B provides an average annual return of 10% but carries a potential loss of
principal of 20% or more in any one year. If I could choose between Investment A and Investment B to meet my goal(s), I would invest my money:
a 100% in A and 0% in B. (1)
b 75% in A and 25% in B. (2)
c 50% in A and 50% in B. (3)
d 25% in A and 75% in B. (4)
e 0% in A and 100% in B. (5)
TOTAL POINTS_________
If you tended to go for the former options in the above questions then you
are quite averse to risk in your tolerance. So, if you scored between:
8 and 20 you tend to be particularly risk-averse;
21 and 35 you tend to be neutral towards risk and volatility;
36 and 50 you like market volatility regarding it as the best opportunity to
make money.
Types of risk
Does investing online lessen the risk of losing money? Only to the extent
that it puts all the tools and resources in your hands to conveniently make
your own investing decisions. When youre online, you can easily scan the
market indicators and track price movements. This will reduce the risk of
error in judgement.
Interest rate risk
When the cost of borrowing money goes up, it erodes the value of certain
investments since it reduces the relative return on the investments. This is
especially vigorous for long-term fixed securities like bonds. For example,
if you bought a bond with the fantastic rate of 8% and five years later
interest rates move above 8%, you will have a lower relative return compared to, say, savings accounts.
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Investor psychology
Overreaction to fluctuating interest rates and inflation fears by panicky
investors prompts a market sell-off that affects the value of investments,
even among those who kept their heads. Herding behaviour can create
exceptionally volatile markets.
Market conditions
Stock prices can soar to such highs per dollar invested that the market and
your individual investments become more vulnerable in the event of a
decline. This is also referred to as market indices.
Liquidity
A liquidity risk is the inability to convert an investment quickly and easily
to cash, which is purely liquid, without incurring a significant loss in the
value of the investment.
Notes
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How to manage risk
There are some simple yet wily strategies that can help mitigate the effects of most risk.
Asset allocation Basically, dont put all your eggs in one
basket. Rather, you must diversify.
Although no strategy
can guarantee success,
history has shown that
a balanced portfolio is
less vulnerable to
economic shock.
Spread your investment among different investment
products stocks, bonds, mutual funds and risk-free cash
equivalents to lessen the chance that a poor showing by
one will jeopardize the overall performance.
Choosing stocks that are not perfectly correlated will give similar results. For
example, stocks from different sectors will move imperfectly, i.e. they will
not drop together but neither will they rise perfectly together. The weight
you give to each sector should be re-evaluated and shifted on a regular
basis depending on how your perceptions to your aversion to risk change.
This is called hedging risk.
Although no strategy can guarantee success, history has shown that a
balanced portfolio is less vulnerable to economic shock.
Dollar cost averaging
Dollar cost averaging is a very effective investment
tool. Say you have $20,000 to invest. If a security youre interested in is trading at $2 a share in January, your $20,000 will buy you 10,000 shares. But
with a dollar cost averaging strategy, you instead buy $1,000 worth every
month for ten months. Using dollar cost averaging you do not expose your
whole $20,000 in one go, but rather stagger the investment along the fluctuating cycle of the share price.
Exercises
1 Why do your preferences to risk matter?
2 What is interest rate risk?
3 What is liquidity risk?
4 How could one manage risk?
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What you have learned
Greater volatility in the market means that prices will fluctuate with a higher
variance that means that potential profits on an upturn are higher but potential losses on a downturn are greater. The rewards of well-timed trades
increase with market volatility but so increase the punishment for poor
timing.
What is important is how you value volatility. Do you have the stomach to ride
the rollercoaster? An investors risk tolerance in making investment decisions
can depend on investment goals, age, the investors personality, etc.
There are a number of types of risk. Interest rate risk is associated with fluctuating interest rates and so with changes in relative rates of return. Changes in
the market indices and herding behaviour can make stock prices particularly
vulnerable. Liquidity risk is the inability to convert an investment quickly and
easily to cash.
Asset allocation is a crucial investment tool: diversify your principal in different types of investment, different stocks, and invest gradually (dollar cost
averaging).
Notes
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Ten-step trading analysis form for shares
Reassessment will allow you to avoid mistakes and improve.The more thoroughly you examine your decision-making processes, the better placed you
are to improve them.What you should do is record your thoughts and predictions, then, at a later date, revisit them to see if and why you were wrong
or right.
I suggest you photocopy the following template form and fill it in when
you are considering a trade. In the process you will clarify your thinking,
improve your decisions and record keeping (taxes, portfolio tracking, etc.),
and learn from your mistakes. Look back on this module, especially the sections on risk for questions 6, 7 and 8.As you progress you may actually want
to create your own template, tailoring it to your own needs and types of
investments, e.g. derivatives and options strategies.
Furthermore,periodically check the transactions you decided not to do to
see if you made the right choice and why.You should examine the forms you
have filled out on a regular basis to see how well you did. Put them in order,
from best to worst, and see if you can discover any patterns or systematic
tendencies, e.g. you may regularly go too long.
Having finished the template, show it to an investor you know for a
second opinion.
1 Date_____________________________
2 General company information and share price. What does the
company do? (Keep this concise)
Current share price_________________________
52-week high_____________________________
52-week low_____________________________
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3 Fundamental data on the company. (What you include will depend on
your trading strategy but below are some suggestions and space for you to
add extra data try not to overload the section. Keep your recordings
concise/sharp.
P/E ratio (compared with rest of industry)
PEG ratio
Price to cash flow ratio
Analyst recommendations
Dividend yield
Profit margin
Etc.
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4 Technical analysis
MACD crossover
Stochastic crossover
Trend characteristics
Target price
Stop loss
Etc.
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5 Does this purchase make sense given the rest of your portfolio? What
about your overall strategy?
6 What is the downside risk of this investment? What could go wrong?
What is your tolerance to this? Think about such things as interest rate risk,
investor psychology, market conditions.
7 What is the upside potential? (Consider optimistic and pessimistic
scenarios.)
8 What news or trends should you watch that might affect the stock? How
likely are they, and what would the effect be? Look at the nature of the
sector the company is in, the state of the economy and related sectors.
9 a If buying the share:
When will you sell this investment?
Will it be sold after a certain time or certain profit level?
How much are you buying and why that amount? What percentage of
your portfolio does this represent?
b If selling the share:
Look at the analysis form you filled out when you bought the stock to see
what you thought then. Do the circumstances match your sell plan that
you made?
c If you decide not to buy or have decided to sell:
Under what circumstances in the future would you reconsider buying?
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10 Action (buy / not buy / sell / not sell)
If you decided to buy or sell:
The Transaction Record
If you have decided to go ahead with the transaction, you will need to have a record of
the following information.
Company name ____________________________________________________________
Symbol____________________________________________________________________
Exchange__________________________________________________________________
No. of shares_______________________________________________________________
Date bought _______________________________________________________________
Share price ________________________________________________________________
Total cost __________________________________________________________________
Reason bought _____________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Plan of when/why to sell _____________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Date sold __________________________________________________________________
Proceeds __________________________________________________________________
Reason sold________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Under what conditions would you buy again? ___________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Gains/losses________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
Short/long-term investment (for tax purposes) ___________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
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MODULE
Monitoring
15
eep your eyes and ears open.
It takes a lot of patience and energy and motivation.
B E R N A R D O P P E T I T,
G L O B A L H E A D O F E Q U I T Y D E R I VAT I V E S ,
B A N Q U E PA R I B A S , D I S C U S S I N G T R A D E
What you will learn
Having executed your position after analyzing numerous possibilities, monitoring your open positions and positions you may open is a key part of any
traders time. In this chapter we examine what you monitor, when and why,
and how it fits into the overall trading approach.
Module outline
Understand the importance of portfolio monitoring.
Examine how the internet can assist in the task.
Add to a professional approach.
Monitoring what?
Traders monitor:
Monitoring your open
positions and positions
you may open is a key
part of any traders
time.
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what they own in anticipation of the time when they will want to sell
according to their trading plan;
other products they may buy but for which as yet all the factors they look
for are not quite aligned, e.g. the price may not be high or low enough as
yet;
the price of the product;
in the case of an open position, all the fundamental and technical factors
which led to the decision to buy and are contained in the trading tactic;
in the case of a potential position, all the fundamental and technical factors
the trader usually examines as part of the trading strategy before entering a
position.
In other words, monitoring involves a constant reanalysis and revaluation of
a position to see what has changed (Fig 15.1). Having examined fundamentals, state what they are.And then if looking to exit in one month, say, monitor every two days.
FIGURE 15.1
To have or not to have a Big Mac
Monitoring when?
How often you monitor mainly depends on two things:
1 Your trading strategy time frame: are you looking to enter and exit in a
short, medium or long period of time? Table 15.1 should help.
2 How close is the position to your stop or target? The closer it is, the more
regularly you need to monitor.
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TA B L E 1 5 . 1
Page 253
Suggested monitoring time frame
Period expecting to enter and exit
Monitor
2496 hours
Constantly hourly
12 weeks
Twice during day monitor price; end of day monitor
everything else
1 month
End of day monitor price; every 2 days monitor everything
else
39 months
34 days monitor price; every week monitor everything else
9+ months
Monitor situation every 3/4+ weeks
How the internet helps
Numerous sites have portfolio monitors or trackers.These usually relate only
to stocks. Figure 15.2 shows a typical portfolio.These are helpful in that you
can see all the detail for your stock in one place. Most update the price and
volume of your stock.
What to look for when seeking an online portfolio tracker
Does it recalculate the value of your total holdings?
How many stocks can you list in one portfolio?
FIGURE 15.2
Online portfolio monitor
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How many portfolios can you have at one site?
How often is the portfolio updated?
Does the portfolio tracker alert you about news, earnings or other related
items which may affect your stock?
Does it monitor and alert you to a change in the technicals of your stock?
The sites
ClearStation **
www.clearstation.com
A good, if occasionally fiddly, portfolio.The site goes offline a bit too often to
be totally reliable.
E*Trade ***
www.etrade.co.uk
This one has all the features you would expect. Could do with more graphics though.
Interactive Investor International ***
www.iii.co.uk
Its free, its easy and it allows UK, US and other country stocks on the portfolio.
MoneyNet ***
www.moneynet.com
This Reuters site adds graphical depictions of your profits and losses and
makes things more interesting than most e-brokers.
Summary
We have now examined what a professional approach to trading requires in
terms of monitoring open and potential positions.
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With both the trading strategy and the trading tactic in hand, monitor both
the open and the potential positions.
Frequency of monitoring depends on how close the target or stop is and
generally on how quickly we expect to enter and exit.
Portfolio monitors can help reduce the workload.
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Notes
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Stay sharp
educate thyself
MODULE
16
The exciting part of being a trader is being involved.
JON NAJARIAN, PRESIDENT AND CEO,
M E R C U RY T R A D I N G
What you will learn
So, youre ready to trade But lets hold on a minute. No matter what you
are interested in, whether it is Nasdaq futures or OJ, we need to get learned!
Therefore, we will now examine sources of further information which many
traders use to supplement their analysis and which add to an overall professional and thorough approach.
I will not include questions in this part of the course because much of the
information here is not technical. Rather, I will present you with a number of
methods by which you can learn.
Module outline
Educate yourself. Search for trading info the old skool way search
engines, yippee! yahoo! et cetera. Know how and when to use them.
Understand why and how to use market commentary and online
magazines.
Learn how to choose newsgroups and newsletters.
Look at some popular web-based discussion forums.
Join the chat community.
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Read electronic magazines.
See how to incorporate these into an action plan.
Trawl the net: search engines
If you meet a trader who is very, very successful, and he truly, honestly believes
it is because he is smarter and faster and more insightful and more aggressive
than all of his peers, I dont believe him. I truly dont.
B I L L L I P S C H U LT Z , F O R M E R G L O B A L H E A D O F F O R E I G N E X C H A N G E ,
SALOMON BROTHERS
We are going to examine one of the most used methods of finding information on the internet: the search engines.A search engine (Fig 16.1) is simply
a site that searches other sites depending on keywords entered by a user.
Search engine fortunes
Search engines were created in the early days of the popular internet by
Silicon Valley students who decided to collect listings of sites. Several years
later they had floated their companies (use of the engine being free, but
advertising bringing in revenue) and had become multimillionaires.
FIGURE 16.1
Example of a search engine
Some things to know:
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Since pages on the internet change quickly, a search engine is unlikely to
be up to the minute, and some results returned may be outdated.
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Just because an engine does not find a site does not mean
it does not exist.
Because of the different way each engine works they will
return different results.
Results are ranked according to closeness of match to
your request, and not of course according to best
available site in terms of content.
If you are not satisfied with the results, try a different
engine.
A search engine is
simply a site that
searches other sites
depending on
keywords entered by
a user.
How to search
Very simply, type in the keyword and press enter. If you want to be technical, most search engines will have options which allow you to specify
whether the engine is to provide results that contain the keywords as a
phrase or any one of the key words.
Advanced searching
To search for sites that are country related, go to the search engines home
page and look for the link to the appropriate country, usually at the foot of
the page, or try typing domain:country code. For example, in the search
box for Alta Vista domain:de lists websites which display the domain de
(Germany).
The asterisk (*) can often be used as a wild card, i.e. trad* would look for
trader, trade, traditional, etc.
In the keyword box of the search engine, if you enter two words be careful
as to what you are looking for:
Keyword
Result
Dow Jones
All sites containing somewhere in them the words Dow or Jones or both, not
necessarily together
Dow AND Jones
All sites containing somewhere in them the words Dow Jones, not necessarily
together
Dow OR Jones
All sites containing somewhere in them the words Dow or Jones or both, not
necessarily together
Dow Jones
All sites containing somewhere in them the words Dow Jones together
+Dow Jones
All sites containing the word Dow but not those containing the word Jones
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Different search
engines will all have
their own language to
assist searches, but in
most cases the pure
and simple keywords
will do.
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Beyond this different search engines will all have their
own language to assist searches, but in most cases the pure
and simple keywords will do.
Top search engines
See Table 16.1 for the top search engines and their ratings.
*** Means the search engine lists a very large number of
sites, supports complex searches, includes directories and
other category-based searching links, and the amount of
information displayed can be altered.
** As above but fewer results, and category links may not
be as good.
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The top search engines
Name
Address (www.word below.com)
Rating
Alta Vista
Excite
Lycos
Yahoo!
Deja News
InfoSeek
WebCrawler
MetaCrawler
altavista.digital
excite
lycos
yahoo
dejanews
infoseek
webcrawler
metacrawler
*** (Recommended)
***
***
***
***
***
**
**
What you have learned
We have seen the basic operation of search engines. Today they are sophisticated sites providing a wealth of information beyond merely search facilities.
They are worth checking out for that alone.
before moving on, get connected to the web and check out some of
the search engines above. Search for anything, not just trading youll
find out what the internet is really about (though keep it clean).
Notes
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Market news and commentary
Almost all traders, whatever form of analysis they use and whatever product
they trade in, whether bonds or shares, will want to examine daily market
news and commentary, as these provide a context for all trading.
Market commentary may relate not only to what is happening to the
world economy but also to the particular product in question. So, for
instance, a futures trader in currencies may want to know what is happening to the US macroeconomy. If you trade UK stocks you may think it safe to
ignore market commentary related to US non-farm payrolls,but you will then
have missed why, on so many occasions, stocks with little US exposure, such
as domestic electricals, are affected each month when the US non-farm payroll data are revealed.
What happens is that the market often uses those data to gauge the likely
changes in US interest rates, which in turn affects whether more funds are
likely to flow into London or New York. That in turn can affect the share
price of companies that have little to do directly with the US.The key rule is
that everything is connected to everything else.
This does not mean you have to be an economics whiz to trade,but it does
mean that the better informed you are about what the market is examining,
the more likely you are to make better trading decisions. In any event, few
people would argue that more information can do harmthough dont get
bogged down. Here endeth the case for following market news and market
commentary.
Lets move on to some criteria for including market news
and commentary sites in the skeleton plans.
This does not mean
you have to be an
economics whiz to
trade, but it does mean
that the better
informed you are
about what the market
is examining the more
likely you are to make
better trading
decisions.
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The news providers have to be well known, widely
respected and with ample resources.
They should offer quality commentary on the markets.
There should be categorized news, such as industry,
business, commodity, etc. for ease of searching.
Make sure there are regular updates during the day.
News sites
Here are some sites I find particularly useful for keeping
abreast of market news. However, broker sites often have
such useful market commentary nowadays that you may
not need these.
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BBC News ***
news.bbc.co.uk
This one is good for world news as well as a general overview of market
news. If you are looking at macroeconomic and political considerations, use
this site.
Bloomberg ****
www.bloomberg.com
World-beating provider of up-to-the-minute financial news. For market news
and general background just focus on the headline stories on the home page.
Click on the columns link and there you will see not only the columnists but
reports for all world markets a really convenient way to get the low-down
quickly.The news link is self-evident.
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CBS MarketWatch ****
cbs.marketwatch.com
Great value this free site. News is solid.The free tools include personal portfolios, company research, charts, mutual funds and delayed quotes.The front
page has all the essential breaking news.There are well-thought-out links to
relevant sites.
Also see the following links:
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Investing tools and data.
Free shops top ten free offers.
Headlines.
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CNBC ***
www.cnbc.com
The most useful things about this one are the news updates and the archived
interviews, which can be helpful when researching a company.
The Daily Rocket ****
www.dailyrocket.com
Packed full of original articles. Download the Investment Monitor a personal portfolio-management software that delivers investment news, stock
data and market analysis to your PC.
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Financial Times ***
www.ft.com
Use the drop-down menu to get market news for various sectors and regions
of the world.That is probably the feature most useful to traders. Other things
like the portfolio are OK but you will probably use the one your broker provides.
Wall Street Journal ***
www.wsj.com
This site is divided into WSJ Europe, US,Asia. Use it for market news and use
the columns for a bit more analysis.
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Now,go forth and check out these sitesgo on,do it now.Dont miss todays
breaking stories there may be a trade in it.You cannot afford to miss out.
What you have learned
News sites are essential as part of any persons diet (they inform us about the
world we live in), and for particularly stressed traders news may even become a
substitute for food and drink. Look for reputable sites with quality commentary
and up-to-the-second coverage. Keeping abreast of breaking stories in finance
will keep you sharp and make your trading far more informed and interesting.
Notes
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Recommendation pedlars: gurus
and their newsletters
Many traders subscribe to one or more newsletters for the particular
product they are interested in.
My experience is that the hottest person on the floor is just about the worst
teacher.
JON NAJARIAN, PRESIDENT AND CEO,
M E R C U RY T R A D I N G
What are they?
Essentially a market newsletter will contain recommendations as to what to
buy and sell.The individuals who write them are often termed gurus. I suppose priest, rabbi and imam would also suffice.
Why use them?
A typical newsletter will contain analysis of why a particular stock or other
product is recommended. Most traders, if they use newsletters, do so to get
a second opinion on their own analysis or to gain ideas. Sometimes a
newsletter is a confidence builder for those a little tentative or unsure of
their own analysis.
HOT TIP
Using newsletters
Do not merely follow a newsletter: you may as well give your money to the
newsletter author. And if you are willing to do that then why not give it to
a professional fund manager? Remember, Soros and Buffett do not write
newsletters. In other words, the truly successful trade; they do not recommend trades. So I would recommend that you do your own analysis before
or after looking at the newsletter you have subscribed to and form an
independent view as to the trade.
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HOT TIP
Get a freebie
You are strongly recommended to get a free copy of or a trial subscription
to your shortlisted choice of newsletters. That is the only way to know for
sure whether they are any good. Also, ask around in the chat sites as to
what other traders use. If the newsletter does not offer a free trial copy or
subscription, be wary it may have something to hide.
Product Make sure the newsletter trades in the same products as you!
Seems obvious it is. But it also means that if you trade stock options, it will
almost certainly be better to have a newsletter making stock option recommendations than one making purely stock recommendations.
Strategy Are the strategies the newsletter recommends ones with which
you are comfortable? For instance, the newsletter may specialize in shorting
stocks or spread trading.You need to be aware of the type of analysis you
believe in and ensure the newsletter follows a similar form. For instance, if
you tend to follow earnings surprises and do not care much for technical
indicators, it would be perverse for you to subscribe to a newsletter that
selected recommendations based on technicals.
Time frame
Ideally, you want a newsletter that selects recommendations
on a time frame you like to trade to. An extreme example of a mismatch
would be if you prefer to enter and exit trades on a weekly basis and the
newsletter is monthly. Its value to you would be limited.
Method of delivery
Are you happy with the mode by which the newsletter is delivered: e-mail, fax or snail mail?
Comprehensible?
The issue here is whether you like the
layout and can understand why the guru is recommending
a stock. One thing that will ensure a wasted subscription is
if you cannot understand the gurus choice. If you do not
fully comprehend how he selects his recommendations,
you cannot critically analyze them and so are following
blindly.
MODULE 16
Ideally, you want a
newsletter that selects
recommendations on
a time frame you like
to trade to.
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Pay cash, take your choice
As the table below outlines, there are an enormous number of factors that
determine the type of newsletter best suited to your particular needs.
Moreover, for every possible demand there seem to be several suppliers.
That being so it would be ridiculous and unhelpful to list and review each
and every available newsletter. Instead the sites listed are umbrella sites
which do precisely that. Furthermore, because they are net sites, they are
going to be more up to date.
My Choice
Newsletter 1
Newsletter 2
Newsletter 3
Product
Strategy
Analysis
Time frame
Method of delivery
Comprehensible (score)
Trial period
Cost
The sites
The sites referred to below are umbrellasites.They have in aggregate the following features.
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Search criteria the facility to search for newsletters by publisher, author,
product, strategy.
Free samples the facility to view or order many of the newsletters for free
for a trial period.
Track record a comparison of the newsletters based on their performance.
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Hulbert Financial
www.hulbertdigest.com
Analysis of investment approaches of newsletters.
Profiles of strategy and methods used for recommendations.
Addresses of all listed newsletters.
Ranking of past performance of all newsletters.
How to use this site and what for
Hulbert Financial is well known for its ranking of newsletters. It is a comprehensive service; however you will have to pay for it.
Investools
www.investools.com
Search according to strategy, product, analysis (e.g. charts).
Free issues of some of the listed newsletters.
How to use this site and what for
A wide selection of newsletters here, but no ranking except by a link to
Hulbert Financial.
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Newsletter Network
www.margin.com
Search the extensive database according to publisher, letter, author.
Free samples.
How to use this site and what for
Similar to Investools, but it may be that the sites do not cover exactly the
same newsletters and so it is worth using both sites as search tools.
HOT TIP
Diamonds in the dirt
Many prospectors for newsletters kid themselves that if they find some
esoteric and little-known newsletter they may find something everyone
else has missed and so strike oil. Dont kid yourself the newsletter writer
wouldnt be writing the letter if he was sitting on a potential oil field
littered with diamonds.
What you have learned
As you will have guessed I am not a great fan of newsletters. But at least with
the resources described in this chapter you have more information about how
good they are than ever before. At least your choice will be informed.
Notes
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Discussion forums
There are newsgroups
on virtually every topic
under the sun.
What are they?
A newsgroup is simply a collection of messages posted by
individuals to a news server. Posting is the act of putting
your message onto the server. News servers are just big
computers that host (i.e. store) lots of newsgroup messages
for people to view.You read and post messages using a news reader.A news
reader is software much like a browser and the best news is that most
browsers include news readers that launch automatically when you want to
go to a newsgroup.With Internet Explorer 4, for example, the news reader is
bundled with the e-mail reader called Outlook Express. In Netscape Navigator it is called Netscape News.
There are some websites that provide their own news readers and so
permit web-based newsgrouping which can be easier for the novice.There
are newsgroups on virtually every topic under the sun. Some newsgroups
are monitored or moderated, which means someone sifts through them to
ensure the content meets certain quality standards and is not generally scurrilous, libellous or outrageously offensive.
Adding a news server
To add a news server you will need the name of the server and your
account name and password.
In Internet Explorer 4 go to Outlook Express and click on Tools, then
Accounts and next on News. Follow the on-screen instructions.
In Netscape Navigator:
In the browser click on Options, then select Mail and News Preferences
and click on Servers (you may need to click on News first if this tab is
available). Next enter the server name in the News (NNTP) Server box
and follow the instructions.
HOT TIP
Web-based newsgroups
One of the easiest ways to use newsgroups without all the trouble of linking to servers and fiddling with browsers is to go to www.infoseek.com.
From there you can search for newsgroups and download the My Deja
News news reader and subscribe to lots of newsgroups.
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Viewing newsgroups
In your browser simply type in the URL box news:name of newsgroup, e.g.
news:misc.invest.
The major problem with newsgroups, which even a short visit will reveal
is that:
they often get used by a small clique of users who are in fact just talking to
each other, with outside messages not replied to readily;
the focus of the clique can be quite narrow;
the messages can get abusive and personal;
unregulated groups often get postings from unwelcome get rich quick
schemes;
investors often try to talk up positions they may be holding, so the
information can be biased and not credible.
Consequently, for anyone coming to a newsgroup it can be a little like going
to a drinks party and trying to join in a conversation with a circle of individuals who have been chatting away for a few hours. My advice would be
to use newsgroups only for asking questions,and be wary of the replies even
then. In my opinion, they are not a good source of investment advice.
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HOT TIP
Alternative advice
If you have an investment query, rather than seeking the amateur advice
of a newsgroupie you could always go to a website dealing with the area
of your query (e.g. bonds, etc.) and seek out e-mail addresses of people
on them. Often, the advisers who produce the site provide their e-mail
addresses and they can be a useful source of free advice on an issue.
Internet chat rooms seem to be a pretty great way for people to talk with each
other to see if they find something they can mesh with.
JON NAJARIAN,
PRESIDENT AND CEO,
M E R C U RY T R A D I N G
Some newsgroups found using a general internet search are listed in Table
16.2 while Table 16.3 offers some popular web-based discussion forums.
TA B L E 1 6 . 2
A variety of newsgroups
Name
Content
alt.invest.penny-stocks
Misc.invest
Misc.invest.commodities
Misc.invest.emerging
Misc.invest.forex
Misc.invest.funds
Misc.invest.futures
Misc.invest.stocks
Misc.invest.technical
uk.finance
Low-priced stocks talk
Investments
Commodities
Emerging markets
Foreign exchange
Mutual funds
Futures
Stocks
Technical analysis
UK personal finance
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Popular web-based discussion forums
Name and address
Stocks
Mutual
funds
Futures
Options
Bonds
Technical
analysis
Fundamental
analysis
Avid Traders Chat
avidinfo.com
The Financial Center On-Line
www.tfc.com/chat
Investors Free Forum
www.investorsforum.com
The Motley Fool
www.fool.com
Quicken People & Chat
quicken.excite.com/forums
The Stock Club
www.stockclub.com
Yahoo! Finance Message Boards
messages.yahoo.com/yahoo/
Business_and_Finance/
One of the best collections of web-based discussion is located within Yahoo!
at: messages.yahoo.com/yahoo/Business_and_Finance/Index.html
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There are newsgroups on:
brokerages
market trends
mutual funds
options
overvalued stocks
short-term trading
stocks (financial, consumer, energy, healthcare, service, technology,
transport, utilities)
company-specific news, so you can discuss a single stock in splendid
isolation.
What you have learned
Although the quality of content can vary widely on newsgroups and web-based
discussion groups, they can be a useful source of second opinions. Remember
to always query the motives of those posting messages. Their opinions
carry more weight if they can be verified independently (e.g. a news item you
may otherwise have missed). Overall the web-based discussion groups are of a
higher quality than the newsgroups and my advice would be to choose one or
two at the most, otherwise you will not be able to keep abreast of them all.
Notes
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Chat rooms and boards
What you need to learn:
How best to use online chat sites, if at all.
Which are the key sites online traders use to talk trading?
The aim of this book, as with all good trading books, is to impart not just
information but also knowledge and wisdom. The experience of others
besides our humble selves is essential to such a task. In trying to maintain a
community feel, boards and chat rooms are an essential source of information. A top chat room or board will create a genuine community feel, with
intelligent conversation from users of all levels of experience. Unfortunately
such chat rooms are rare; if you find one that you like, grab hold of it and
dont let go.
With a chat room you can talk real-time by typing and posting and seeing
instant replies (if anyone is in the room and deigns to reply).With boards you
post a message and wait for a reply at some future time. In this chapter we
shall see some of the best ones, what best means, and how to use them.
Why use them?
I can suggest a few reasons
To pose questions about issues on which you are unsure.
To get ideas about what to trade. Be very wary of using them for this
however. A lot of posters put the bull into bulletin board. Be especially
concerned if anyone offers insider information it is usually the last cry of
someone stuck in a bad losing position.
As an educational tool by learning from the experiences of others, for
instance in which orders to use at what time of day.
A top chat room or
board will create a
genuine community
feel, with intelligent
conversation from
users of all levels of
experience.
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As a review of online trading sites. By this I mean
many people posting may sum up which are the best
brokers or the cheapest sites, etc.
Just to chill and bond, find some buddies.
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They speak a different
language in chat
rooms. Its a
sociological thing.
Learn the lingo
They speak a different language in chat rooms.You will need to know the following terms just so you too can appear hip by knowing what the boards
coolest in-crowd are talking about. Its a sociological thing.
B4 Before.
BBL Be back later.
BCNU Be seeing you.
BFN Bye for now.
BRB Be right back.
BTW By the way.
CUL8R See you later.
F2F Face to face.
FAQ Frequently asked questions.
FWIW For what its worth.
GBH&K Great big hug and kiss.
HHOK Ha ha only kidding!
IMHO In my humble opinion.
IRL In real life.
J/K Just kidding.
LOL Laughing out loud.
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NT No text.
NTR Not trading related.
OIC Oh, I see!
OTOH On the other hand.
OTT Over the top.
ROTFL Rolling on the floor laughing.
TIA Thanks in advance.
TTFN Ta ta for now.
Before I set you loose, you will also want to know the following:
Flaming a nasty or rude response to someone who breaches netiquette,
e.g. by posting adverts and thereby treating the board members like
buffoons.
Posting the act of placing a comment on a board, done by a poster.
Thread a line of discussion on a board with one person making a posting
and the replies being the threads. Also a thin piece of material used to keep
garments together.
What to watch out for on chat and board sites
When considering which chat and board sites to make your regular hangouts, you should consider the following issues.
Size
When it comes to boards, size matters. You obviously want a board
with lots of subject matter and members to ensure you get the broadest
views and are not sharing the site with a sad lonely broker
from Florida.
Sometimes posters are
simply not that good,
and postings
degenerate into
slanging matches and
challenges to settle
matters outside the
board.
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Quality of postings Some sites simply have poor-quality
postings, for several reasons.The site may have been taken
over by a few bully posters who cajole, intimidate or poke
fun. Sometimes posters are simply not that good, and postings degenerate into slanging matches and challenges to
settle matters outside the board. Sometimes you get an
invasion of ramping postings; those morons who inform
you something is about to sky-rocket because they know a
man, who works for this woman, whose husbands mistresss cousins nieces stepmothers alien dog told her the
stock was a good purchase.
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Topics As well as a wide range of topics the boards should be divided into
sub-groups so you can get into a relevant topic in enough detail and quickly.
Design and navigability
It can sometimes seem there are millions of messages on billions of topics posted every nanosecond. In fact it is worse. All
this makes design and navigation especially important so that you get to
read about what you want to know and can post questions or replies.
Price
Ideally you want a free site. Failing that, a free trial period followed
by a cheap subscription will have to do.
Investorville ***
www.investorville.com
This site reeks of good ideas. It is easily one of the best chat sites on the web.
Heres why.
Size
Lots of members and postings no worries there.
Quality
A very high-quality content. Editing by the mayor of Investorville
ensures that adverts and bad postings are deleted. In fact I could not find a
poor-quality posting!
Topics
As well as covering topics by stocks, there is also a user created
forums section which ensures relevance to the online trader, discussing the
issues of most relevance to them.There is an ask a question forum for all
those questions which may not be answered elsewhere, and this also
ensures there is a welcoming place for the novice. Now, that is my kind of
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community. An excellent overheard section lists and links to all the best,
most perceptive and intelligent postings.Yet another good idea.Another section worth a mention is Hot Boards which lists the most popular boards so
you can instantly get a feel for where the most vibrant discussion and latest
issues may be being discussed.The new posts section keeps you up to date
with the most recent new discussions.
Design and navigability Very easy to read and navigate. I cannot think
how it could be simpler.Yeah, I know I am heaping praise on it, but when I
see something I like, I just gotta let ya know. There are no annoying reference codes cluttering threads, as on so many other sites.
Price Free as air, and twice as sweet.
Marketforum **
www.marketforum.com
This is a futures and options message board from INO Global Markets.The
board is excellent for those who are futures-minded. I hear plans are in the
works for discussions with experts.
Size
The site claimed 3,676 messages in the past two days when I did a
search under online.
Quality
Topics
level.
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A very high-quality site with serious talk.
Topics are restricted to talk about commodities at an intermediate
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Design and navigability
Not too bad a design, though navigation was a
bit difficult it could have been easier to see a long list of articles than having to search by topic.
Price
Free.
The Silicon Investor ***
www.techstocks.com
Despite having a name that does not match its web address, this is probably
one of the most famous online trading board sites. These are the stats it
proudly proclaims to all visitors.
Size
There are 140,000+ messages posted each week, and 580,000 messages posted per month.There are 10,769,922 searchable messages stored
in the silicon investor (SI) database, and 29,788 discussion threads have
been created by SI members. More than 120,000 people have become
active members of Silicon Investor.
Quality of postings
Topics
Quite high, not much noise.
Topics include the following (with sub-topics within):
Aerospace and defence
Banking and finance
Brokerages/investment resources
Canadian stocks
Casinos/gaming
Coffee shop
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Five dollars and under
Food processing and agriculture
Futures and commodities
Gold, mining and natural resources
Initial public offerings
International
Internet financial connection
Iomega (IOM) and IMP (IMPX)
Market trends and strategies
Miscellaneous (biotech/medical)
Miscellaneous (general)
Miscellaneous (technology)
Mutual funds
Overvalued stocks
Puts, calls and other options
Real estate/REITs
Short-term traders
Specialty retail
Transportation
Web/information stocks
Welcome to SI
Year 2000 stocks & discussion
Design and navigability The sites design used to smack of 1970s styling
(that is, if the internet had been around then). However, a recent redesign
makes this great site better. Message boards are easier to look at. It is
relatively simple to find topics, and some help-ful chaps collect the best
postings for a particular topic and archive them I love that idea.
Price
Reading is free, posting costs.There is a free trial membership plan
for a fortnight and also a subscription fee of $100 for a year and $200 for life
(best not take out the latter if youre 101 years old then).
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The Stock Club **
www.stockclub.com
The site offers real-time chat as well as boards. Specializes in stocks alone.
Size
I got the impression there were a few people there, but not as many
as on, say, Silicon Investor.
Quality
About average.
Topics Stocks are covered in alphabetical order and can be searched by
industry group which is helpful. But they should have industry-based discussion, too.
Design and navigability The design and navigability are fine. Not too
bad, not too great. Since the site focusses on particular stock talk, there is
very little you could do to improve it, although it could have a hot boards
section to list those stocks with the most postings.
Price
Free, but you have to become a member even to read, let alone post,
messages.
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Stock Talk
www.stocktalk.com
The only reason this site is mentioned is for readers who may have a stockspecific query and cannot find the answer on any other site.It is a last resort.
Size
Lots of room, not enough people.There are supposed to be 7,800.
Quality An example of a site hijacked by non-traders. Low quality. Postings
ramp stocks or ramp porn sites. How sad do they think online traders are?
Topics As well as stocks the site does have boards for hot stocks and for
initial public offerings (IPOs).
Design and navigability
I dare you.
Price
Design is fine, but try to find some information
Price reflects quality.
What you have learned
There are a few very good sites which can be used for some restricted purposes
outlined above, such as getting the word on the street from those who have
been there, done that. Do not use them for stock tips ever.
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Nevertheless, if you are looking for a chat room to call home, remember what
to look for:
size you need to talk to someone;
quality of postings you need quality chat;
the range of topics;
the design and ease of navigation, and of course
price I suggest you look for a site priced at $0 per day. Failing that, a free
trial period followed by a cheap subscription will have to do.
Notes
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E-zines
Most of the new traders read the newspapersso they do not have a plan,
they just have a general feeling that due to a situation they read in the paper
they want to do this or that. What I try to do is to help them make a plan.
P H I L F LY N N ,
V I C E P R E S I D E N T, A L A R O N T R A D I N G
The sites here deal exclusively with quality online financial magazines. See
Table 16.4 for a list of the top e-zines.
TA B L E 1 6 . 4
Table of top e-zines
Name
Address
Business Week Online
The Economist
Forbes
Fortune
Inc. Magazine
InvestorGuide Weekly
Stocks & Commodities
US News Online
www.businessweek.com
www.economist.com
www.forbes.com
www.fortune.com
www.inc.com
www.investorguide.com
www.traders.com
www.usnews.com
What you have learned
Select one or two top magazines to keep in touch with more background
market information. Personally I prefer reading them off-line. However, you
could use the online magazines as a cheaper alternative or supplement.
Summary
Right, we should now be ready to search the internet to find trading information for ourselves. We have looked at the basic operation of the search
engine the tools of an inquisitive internet surfer. Search engines are rather
sophisticated, providing a wealth of information.They are worth checking
out for that alone.
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News sites are essential. Look for reputable sites with
quality
commentary and up-to-the-second coverage.Staying
News sites are
up to date will keep trading interesting by giving you a
essential. Look for
wider perspective on finance.
reputable sites with
Although the quality of content can vary widely on
newsgroups
and web-based discussion groups, they can be
quality commentary
a useful source of second opinions. Remember to always
and up-to-the-second
query motives of those posting messages. Their opinions
coverage.
carry more wait if they can be verified independently.
Chat rooms can be great fun, but take them with a pinch
of salt. Look for quality chat and a large community. Do not
use them for stock tips ever.
Select one or two top magazines to keep in touch with more background
market information.
Notes
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Recommended reading
Key
***
Excellent; comprehensible and comprehensive as well as value for
money. Should be on your bookshelf
**
A useful read with very much to offer
A good read if, having read the others, you want to continue looking into
the subject
Online trading
Investing Online * * *
S Eckett
FT Pitman 1997
Encyclopaedic in coverage and an excellent reference tool with a focus on global investing.
Trading Online * * *
Alpesh B Patel
FT Prentice Hall 2000
New and revised version of the best-seller covering all the steps to trading from
getting set up to monitoring positions.
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The Complete Idiots Guide to Online
Investing *
D Gerlach
Que 1999
Que are known for their computer books and this venture appears to be a bandwagon thing. But the Complete Idiots guides can be clear and more comprehensible if you are, um, well, a complete idiot.
Short-term trading
Long-term Secrets to Short-term Trading * * *
L Williams
Wiley 1999
Larry Williams is a proven trader.An excellent book, because he clearly knows
his stuff and trades off it.
Day-trading
The Electronic Day Trader * * *
M Friedfertig and G West
McGraw-Hill 1999
A very popular title indeed for day-traders from a day-trading brokerage owner.
How to Get Started in Electronic Day Trading * * *
David S Nassar
McGraw-Hill 1999
Nassar owns a day-trading firm, and this book is written from the perspective of
a man who knows his business.
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High Impact Day Trading * *
Robert Barnes
Irwin 1996
This book highlights the authors Mountain Valley system, going for longer
moves and ignoring shorter ones. It has proved a very popular title.
Electronic Day Traders Secrets * *
M Friedfertig and G West
McGraw-Hill 1999
This book has a series of interviews with day traders from Friedfertigs own brokerage company.A lot of trading psychology here, but light on strategies.
The 22 Rules of Day Trading Online * *
D Nassar
McGraw-Hill 1999
After the success of his earlier day-trading book, David Nassar returns with a different format.
The Day Traders Advantage *
H Abell
Dearborn Financial 1996
A little dated from the ubiquitous Abell, who seems to be a full-time author producing what feels like one book per month. Focuses on the trading psychology
aspects of day-trading.
The Compleat Day Trader *
J Bernstein
McGraw-Hill 1999
A very good seller, with an unusual title. Covers not only day-trading but also
risk management.
RECOMMENDED READING
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Day Trade Online *
C Farrell
Wiley 1999
Farrell is a young man who trades for a living. Some good content in here, but
lay-out, design and substance lacking in other respects.
Trading psychology
The Bhagavad Gita * * *
Various editions
Although written more than 2000 years ago, and not directly about trading, I
found it to be one of the most useful trading books I have ever read. It largely
discusses discipline how and why and the benefits of discipline. Since a lack
of mental discipline is one of the major downfalls of traders, this is likely to be
a very profitable read.
The Mind of a Trader * * *
Alpesh B Patel
FT Pitman 1997
Advice on becoming a better trader from the worlds leading traders, including
Pat Arbor, former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade, and Bill Lipschutz,
former Global Head of Forex at Salomon Brothers, who made on average
$250,000 each and every trading day he was there, for eight years!
The Disciplined Trader * *
Mark Douglas
Prentice Hall 1990
An extremely good book. Written in a very intelligent fashion and gets away
from Mickey Mouse fashion psychology. Deserves a far higher profile than it
has received to date.
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The Inner Game of Trading * *
Robert Koppel and Howard Abell
Irwin Professional 1997
Includes interviews with some leading traders, but its value comes from the
analysis of psychological difficulties traders are likely to encounter. Definitely
recommended.
Classics
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator * * *
Edwin Le Fevre
Wiley 1994 (reprint edition)
An undoubted classic. The fictionalized trading biography of Jesse Livermore,
one of the greatest speculators ever seen.While dated (it was written in 1923),
it nevertheless provides some insight into the difficulties encountered by
traders.A very enjoyable read.
The Art of Speculation * *
Philip L Carret
Wiley 1997
Apparently highly regarded by Victor Niederhoffer. However, in spite of that,
I would recommend it as a good read.
Manias, Panics and Crashes * *
Charles Kindleberger
Wiley 1996
Why do the economists, statisticians and government nerds always get it wrong?
This book does not provide any answers, but it does provide some insights.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
and Confusion de Confusiones * *
Charles Mackay and Joseph de la Vega
Wiley 1995
Explores crowd psychology and how that affects market movement. While its
examinations are 300 years old, it is highly relevant today. Short and interesting.
RECOMMENDED READING
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Stocks
Getting Started in Stocks * *
Alvin D Hall
Wiley 1997 (3rd edition)
A very good primer for stocks. Hall has a clear style and injects humour now
and again to alleviate the rigour.
Winning on Wall Street *
Martin Zweig
Warner Books 1997 (revised edition)
Zweig is famous for his market reports and for being one of Schwagers market
wizards. I found a copy of this book for $11.99 you cant go wrong.
Futures
A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets * * *
Jack Schwager
Wiley 1984
This book covers fundamental analysis and technical analysis as well as spreads
and options. Characteristic of Schwagers books, it is very thorough.
Getting Started in Futures * *
Todd Lofton
Wiley 1997 (3rd edition)
Very clear and easy to understand as well as giving lots of information for
delving deeper.
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Commodities trading
Soybean Trading and Hedging * *
Wheat Trading and Hedging * *
Corn Trading and Hedging * *
Investing in Wheat, Soybeans, Corn * *
William Grandmill
Irwin Professional 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991 (respectively)
A series of books by the appropriately named Grandmill for commodity traders.
Grandmill provides details of the commodities and his own systems for picking
entry and exit points. If you think it is best to become an expert in one area of
commodity trading then books such as these should be a good starting point to
developing your skills and understanding.
Mastering Commodity Futures and Options * *
George Kleinman
FT Pitman 1997
This book is very well-presented indeed.A little like a textbook in style, but covers the ground very well for both beginner and intermediate user.
The CRB Commodity Yearbook * *
Knight-Ridder
Knight-Ridder annual
A very useful reference guide to commodities. Filled with data, charts, tables and
articles on trends and strategies. If you are serious about commodities you
should have this.
Options
McMillan on Options * * *
Lawrence McMillan
Wiley 1996
Brands itself as the Bible of the options markets. Why do publishers refer to
their books as the Bible of something? I wonder if they mean only a minority
of people will ever read the book but more are supposed to and it competes
with equivalent books for the rest. Anyway, that aside, McMillan goes beyond
explaining the basics about options and actually applies a degree of critique.
Should consider if you are a beginner.
RECOMMENDED READING
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Getting Started in Options * * *
Michael Thomsett
Wiley 1993
Again, very clear and easy to understand.An excellent start for beginners.
Advanced Options Trading * *
Robert Daigler
Probus 1993
This book moves beyond basics and discusses some strategies generally used
only by the professionals.That does not mean a private investor using them will
have hit upon some sector so beware. But if you are interested in knowing
more than just the basics, this book is better than most.
Commodity Options * *
Larry Spears
Marketplace Books 1985
This one is for beginners who may not have settled on a particular commodity
and want an overview.
Traded Options * *
Peter Temple
Rushmere Wynne 1995
For those trading options on LIFFE.Thorough and explains all the basics, from
what options are to buying software.
All About Options * *
Russell Wasendorf and Thomas McCafferty
Probus 1993
The good thing about this book is that it covers both strategies and some of the
background mechanics behind options, such as what happens on the trading
floor.
The Options Markets *
John Cox and Mark Rubinstein
Prentice Hall 1985
This is a classic text on options. The book is about valuing options these
authors, of course, created the famous CoxRubinstein option pricing model.
Options on Foreign Exchanges *
David DeRosa
Probus 1992
Not to leave out the currency-option boys and girls, this market specialist covers
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valuation of options and pricing of currencies, as well as how the various markets
work. Probably useful for the beginner and intermediate-level trader in forex
options.
Make Money with S&P Options *
How to Make Money with Corn Options *
Make Money with Soybean Options *
William Grandmill
Irwin 1989, 1990, 1990 (respectively)
If you are concentrating on one of these areas and feeling you need something
specifically addressing your trading needs, then these books were written with
you in mind. Grandmill is a prolific writer and knows what he is talking about.
Trading Options on Futures *
John Labuszewski
Wiley 1998
This covers treasuries, currencies and commodities. I think if you are trading
options on futures there is more to it than understanding options and understanding futures.The whole is greater than the sum of the parts, and therefore
a book such as this is added value in being exclusively written for one trading
sector.
Option Volatility & Pricing Strategies *
Sheldon Natenberg
Probus 1994
Natenberg is a leader in this field.This book is definitely for the more advanced
trader wanting to dig into option mechanics.
RECOMMENDED READING
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Trading and Investing in Bond
Options *
M Anthony Wong
Wiley 1991
This title covers strategies and pricing models and details the peculiarities of
trading this market using options.
Technical analysis
The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Method * * *
Gerald Appel
Signalert 1979
Appel is the creator of this highly popular trading method, and this book
explains it straight from the sources mouth. Useful if you plan to place large
weight on this indicator in your own trading.
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques * * *
Steven Nison
New York Institute of Finance 1991
Steve Nison is regarded as the expert on Japanese candlesticks.This book is very
clear and very easy to understand. Nison uses actual charts and not stylized fictional ones. He also focuses on how and when the chart indications fail. The
book helps an understanding of the rationale behind technical analysis, why it
works, and why it does not. Excellent.
Point and Figure Charting * *
Carroll Aby
Traders Press 1996
Both a beginners guide and a reference book for this method of plotting prices.
Technical Analysis from A to Z * *
Steven B Achelis
Probus 1995
A good introductory guide which is comprehensive. Lots of pics of indicators.
Stock Market Trading Systems * *
Gerald Appel and Fred Hitschler
Dow Jones Irwin 1980
This is a classic and discusses the price ROC and moving average trading systems among others. It is always best to go to the original source to gain insights
which later secondary texts are likely to miss.
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Volume Cycles in the Stock Market * *
Richard Arms
Equis 1994
Arms is a well-known technical analyst and this book delves in depth into volume. If volume analysis is something you intend using then this is a very good
source of information.
How to Use the Three-Point Reversal Method of Point and
Figure Stock Market Trading * *
A.W. Cohen
Chartcraft 1984
Despite the cumbersome title this is a useful book on this popular method of
drawing charts.
Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators * *
R Colby and T Meyers
Business One Irwin 1988
As one would expect of a book claiming to be an encyclopedia this is an
exhaustive study. It will be most useful if you want a good overview before settling on a few chosen indicators.
Understanding Fibonacci Numbers * *
Edward Dobson
Traders Press 1984
Not too difficult to understand if Fibonacci fascinates.
The Investors Guide to Technical Analysis * *
Elli Gifford
FT Pitman 1995
While the book uses UK companies to illustrate points, it is nevertheless useful
to traders in any country.Thorough, comprehensive, and easy to read and understand. Good as a starter and for more advanced study; however, it is not mathematical.
RECOMMENDED READING
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New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit
**
Joseph Granville
Prentice Hall 1976
Another one of the technical analysis gods.This book discusses on-balance volume in particular. Granville created that indicator, so who better to learn more
about it from?
The Visual Investor * *
John Murphy
Wiley 1996
Former CNBC presenter provides a good primer on technical analysis. He draws
on one of the key aspects of technical analysis it is visual.
Technical Analysis Explained * *
Martin Pring
McGraw-Hill 1991
The first half of this book is more relevant than the second. While a little disappointing, nevertheless provides insights not available elsewhere.
Volume and Open Interest * *
Kenneth Shaleen
Irwin 1996
A good starter to investigating these two popular statistics in technical analysis.
Probably unavoidable if you are trading futures.
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems * *
Welles J Wilder
Trend Research 1978
Wilder is very highly regarded in the technical analysis world. Here he explains
and interprets numerous indicators, including RSI.
Momentum Direction and Divergence *
William Blau
Wiley 1995
Definitely for the advanced user. If, after learning about oscillators, you want to
take things further and uncover some mathematics to better understand their
weaknesses then this is a good book.
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Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders *
Robert Fischer
Wiley 1993
Take Fibonacci study further with this book.While you do not necessarily need
such detailed know-ledge, if you are going to use it, you may as well know all
there is.
Martin Pring on Market Momentum *
Martin Pring
McGraw-Hill 1993
Aimed at the user who has chosen momentum as one technical indicator from
his arsenal and wants to learn more, this book is typical Pring; clear and useful.
Unfortunately Pring maintains his habit of stylized artificial charts instead of giving more real market illustrations to make his points.
Traders profiles
Market Wizards
New Market Wizards * * *
Jack Schwager
Harper Business 1993, Wiley 1995 (respectively)
An absolute must. Fascinating, although since its in a question and answer format you are left to draw many of your own conclusions.
100 Minds that Made the Market *
Kenneth Fisher
Business Classics 1991
Biographical in nature and the profiles are somewhat short, but nevertheless a
good bedtime or holiday read.
RECOMMENDED READING
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The Super Traders *
Alan Rubenfeld
Irwin 1992
Nine profiles of traders from diverse backgrounds.While a little bit too biographical, nevertheless makes for a good read.
Floor trading insights
Tricks of the Floor Trader * * *
Neal Weintraub
Irwin 1996
One of the few books of its kind. Gives the outsider a view of what the insider
does. Provides knowledge which is useful to know.
Trading Rules * *
William Eng
FT Pitman 1995
While some of the rules will be familiar, others provide valuable enough information to justify buying this easy-to-understand book.
The Traders Edge * *
Grant Noble
Probus 1995
Some very useful insights into what they do on the floor.A good insiders view
and useful pointers on some of the advantages.
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Glossary
Abandoned option Where an option is neither sold nor exercised but allowed
to lapse at expiry.
Accumulation A technical analysis term describing a stock whose price is
moving sideways.
Acid test ratio A measure of financial strength.Also known as the quick ratio.
Cash plus short-term investments plus accounts receivable divided by
current liabilities for the same period.All other things being equal, a relatively
high figure may indicate a healthy company.
Active channels A feature of Internet Explorer 4. Internet sites that are
selected as channels provide special IE4 content. Bill Gates wants to lead
internet TV hence the term channels.
Active market Securities trading with a relatively high degree of liquidity, the
major benefit of which is narrow spreads.A term of art rather than precision.
Aftermarket Also known as secondary market, refering to the trading in a
security after its initial public offering.
All or none Order instructing the broker to buy or sell the entire amount of
the order in one transaction or not at all.
American depositary receipt (ADR) Effectively like owning in dollars stocks
of non-US-listed companies. A popular form of owning shares of foreign
companies.
American option An option that is exerciseable at any time within its life. Can
be traded outside Europe.
American Stock Exchange (AMEX) Located in New York, this is the thirdlargest US stock exchange. Shares trade in the same auction manner used by
the larger New York Stock Exchange, unlike the Nasdaqs market-making
methods.
Arbitrage The purchase in one market of an instrument and the sale in another
market of this instrument or a closely linked instrument in order to profit
from the small price differentials between the products in the two markets.
Arbitrage profits usually exist for only a small time because someone scoops
on them since they are locked in.
Arbitrageur A trader engaged in arbitrage.They seek to make a lot of small,
quick profits.
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Ask The lowest price at which a dealer or market maker will sell a security (also
bid,offer).
Assign To oblige a call option writer to sell shares to the option holder, or to
oblige a put option writer to buy shares from a put option holder.
At the close Order instructing to be filled as close as possible to the, um, close
of a particular security, or to be cancelled otherwise.
At the market An order to buy or sell at the best price obtainable in the
market.
At the open Order instructing the transaction to be filled in one of the first
trades for a particular security, or to be cancelled otherwise.
Averaging Where a price moves against a trader and he trades more of the
stock to enlarge his position but to lower his overall entry price. It will mean
he will have a lower exit price at which he can make a profit.
Away from the market Trade orders that cannot be executed because they
are above or below the current bid or ask. For example, a limit order to buy
50 shares of AOL at $105 when the best offer is $109 will not be filled and is
said to be away from the market.
Backbone A high-speed connection within a network that connects all the
other circuits. Another name for a hub. A central connection from which
spokes or connections radiate.
Bandwidth The capacity of a network to carry data. If your pipes are clogged
(low bandwidth), things take forever to load. Its an issue not of length but of
width.
Basis point Used to calculate differences in interest rate yields, e.g. the
difference between 5.25% and 6.00% is 75 basis points.
BBS A bulletin board system.A little like an electronic notice board.You post
messages to the board and everyone who subscribes to the board can view
them.
Bear(ish) An individual who thinks prices will fall.
Bear market A market in which prices are falling.
Bear spread An option position where it is intended to profit from a falling
market. Usually the position involves the purchase of a put at one strike price
and the sale of a put at a lower strike price.
Beta This measures the stocks volatility to the market as a whole.A beta value
greater than 1.0 represents greater volatility than the general market;less than
1.0 represents less volatility than the general market.
Bid An offer to purchase at a specific price.
Big Board Nickname for the New York Stock Exchange. Greatly adds to your
smugability if you only ever refer to the NYSE as the Big Board.The ignorant
will instantly fall admiringly at your feet. That a person of flesh and blood
could know so much!
Black-Scholes Pricing Modelability A mathematical model used to calculate
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the price in theory of an option. The main input variables are the risk-free
interest rate, volatility, dividends, time to expiry, the strike price, the
underlying price.
Block As in the sale of a block of shares.A transaction involving a large number
of shares or other security. Often blocks are bought or sold at a discount to
the current market as an accepted cost of trading a large number of shares.
Boiler room Derogatory term to describe a brokerage firm where investors
are aggressively solicited over the telephone with high-pressure telephone
sales tactics. Smug traders, stay well clear.
Bounce What happens to mail which for some reason (e.g. wrong e-mail
address) cannot be delivered.
Breadth Comparison of issues traded on a stock exchange on a given day to the
total number of issues listed for trading.The broader a market move, the more
significant it is.
Break A sudden fall in price.
Breakout When the price moves out of its recent range. Sometimes signals
further moves in the direction of the breakout.
Broker An individual who executes customers orders.
Bucket shop Slang term for a disreputable brokerage firm that regularly
engages in illegal practices, such as selling customers stock it may own at a
higher than market price without disclosing the fact.
Bull(ish) An individual who believes prices will rise.
Bull market A market in which prices are rising.
Bull spread An option position where it is intended to profit from a rising
market. Usually the position involves the purchase of a call at one strike price
and the sale of a call at a higher strike price.
Buy in A person having to buy a security because of an inability to deliver the
shares from a previous sale of said shares. Often associated with short sellers.
Call option (calls) The right, but not the obligation, existing only for a fixed
period of time, to purchase a fixed quantity of stock at a fixed price.
Cash flow per share The trailing 12-month cash flow divided by the 12month average shares outstanding. All other things being equal, a relatively
high figure, growing steadily, is a sign of a growing and healthy company and
may indicate a rising share price.
Churning Illegal practice by a broker to cause excessive transactions in a
clients account to benefit the broker through increased transaction fees.
Clerk An employee of an exchanges member firm, who is registered to work
on the exchange floor.
Closed When referring to a position this means one has made an equal and
opposite trade to one already held and so has no more exposure to the market
on that trade.
Co-mingling Illegal act of combining client assets with those of the brokerage
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to boost the fiduciarys financial standing.
Contrarian An individual who generally believes it is usually better not to do
what the majority are doing because the majority do not make money.
Cookie According to conspiracy theorists, a cookie is a small piece of software
that is downloaded from a website to your computers hard drive that tells the
web master all your hidden and deepest secrets.According to everyone else,
a cookie is a small piece of software that is downloaded from a web site to
your computers hard drive that tells the web master your user name,
password, viewing preference, and one or two other things. It means you do
not have to enter the same information over and over again.
Crossed market The highest bid is greater than the lowest offer due to buyer
and seller imbalance. Usually lasts only a few seconds until the market sorts
itself out.
Current ratio The ratio of total current assets divided by the total current
liabilities for the same period.A measure of financial strength.All other things
being equal, a relatively high figure would indicate a healthy company.
Cyberspace William Gibsons name in his fantasy novel Neuromancer (Ace
Science Fiction, 1994) to describe what is now known as the internet.
Daisy chain Creating the illusion of trading activity in a stock through
collusion of a number of brokers.Yes, it is illegal.
Day trade(r) A position that is closed the same day it was opened.
Deep discount Often, internet brokers that charge commissions far less than
full-service or discount brokers; as cheap as you can get.
Delta The change of the options price for a change in the underlying price.A
delta of 0.5 means a 10-point move in the underlying causes a 5-point move
in the option.
Depreciation Not a measure of spousal dissatisfaction.An accounting measure
used to reduce the value of capital expenditure for the purposes of reclaiming
tax.
Diversification Reducing risk by spreading investments among different
investments. Not putting all your eggs in a few baskets.
Dividend ex-date This is the date from which a purchaser of the stock will not
be entitled to receive the last announced dividend. Appropriately, when a
stock goes ex-dividend its price falls by approximately the value of the
dividend.
Dividend growth rate A measure of corporate growth. The annual positive
change in dividend paid to stockholders. All other things being equal, an
increase should indicate a growing company and should be reflected in rising
share price.
Dividend rate This is the total expected dividends for the forthcoming 12
months. It is usually the value of the most recent dividend figure multiplied
by the number of times dividends are paid in a year, plus any extra dividend
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payments.
Dividend yield This is calculated by dividing the annual dividend by the
current price and expressing the figure as a percentage.
Domain Part of a web or e-mail address. Separated from the rest of the address
by dots.
Dotted quad A set of four numbers separated by dots that constitutes an
internet address, e.g. 123.32.433.234.
Down tick A trade in a security that was executed at a lower price than the
previous trade; same as minus tick.
EPS (earnings per share) A measure of corporate growth. The value of
corporate earnings divided by the number of shares outstanding. All other
things being equal, a growing figure reflects a healthy, growing company and
should be reflected in the share price.
Equity The portion of the companys assets that would be distributed to the
shareholders if the company were liquidated.
European option An option that is only exercisable at expiry.
Exercise Where the holder of an option uses his right to buy or sell the
underlying security.Also means to work out.
Expiry The date up to which a trader can exercise his option.
Flame An e-mail that is abusive or argumentative. Usually includes the words
You are a . . . somewhere in the message.
Flamefest The same as a flame orgy.
Flat (1) A market where the price of a stock and/or its volume have not changed
significantly over a period of time; (2) to no longer hold a position in a
particular security or account.
Floor broker A member who executes orders for clearing members.
Floor trader An individual who trades on the floor of an exchange either for
himself or for a company.
Free speech An issue relating to the internet about which the US Congress
spends an inordinate amount of time. Essentially, the concern is to give rights
to those who would deny them to others, including those who granted them.
Freeriding Rapid buying and selling of a security by a broker without putting
up funds for the purchase.Yup, it is illegal.
Front running Buying or selling securities ahead of a large order so as to
benefit from the subsequent price move.
FTP (file transfer protocol) The protocol for sending files through the
internet.
Fundamental analysis Forecasting prices by using economic or accounting
data. For example, one might base a decision to buy a stock on its yield.
Futures A standardized contract for the future delivery of goods, at a prearranged date, location, price.
Gap Where a price opens and trades higher than its previous close.
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Geek Also known as a net nerd.They were the kids everyone hated at school,
who wore thick, black-rimmed spectacles and were extremely uncool.They
would also get sand kicked in their faces and were so unpopular no one
would be seen dead with them sometimes not even their parents. Now the
sand has settled, and it has become clear that because they were unpopular
they spent all their time studying, and can now be considered some of the
wealthiest people on the planet,with the fastest,flashiest cars.They definitely
had the last laugh.
Gross margin A measure of company profitability. The previous 12-month
total revenue less cost of goods sold divided by the total revenue. All other
things being equal, a decrease in gross margins could indicate troubled times
ahead.
Hedge Protection against current or anticipated risk exposure, usually through
the purchase of a derivative. For example, if you hold euros and fear that the
price will decline in relation to the dollar you may go long dollar.You would
then make some profit on your long position to offset your losses in holding
euros.
Hit the bid When a seller places market orders with the intention of selling to
the highest bidder, regardless of price.
Implied volatility Future price volatility as calculated from actual, not
theoretical, options prices.The volatility is implied in the prices.
In and out Term for day trading in a security.
Income per employee The income after taxes divided by the number of
employees.A measure of corporate efficiency.All other things being equal, a
greater figure, or a growing figure, indicates a more efficient company and
should be reflected in a rising share price.
Initial margin requirement Amount of cash and securities a customer must
have in his/her account before trading on margin.
Initial public offering (IPO) First sale of stock by a company to the public.
Insider Person such as a corporate officer or director with access to privileged
company information.
Insider share purchases The number of shares in the company purchased by
its insiders officers and directors over a stated period of time. All other
things being equal,a relatively large move may indicate a forthcoming upward
move in the stock price.
INSTINET A fourth stock market allowing members to display bid and ask
quotes and bypass brokers in securities transactions. Owned by Reuters.
Institutional net shares purchased This is the difference between
institutional share purchases and institutional share sales in the company
over a stated period of time. All other things being equal, a relatively large
move may indicate a forthcoming upward move in the stock price.
Institutional percent owned This is the percentage of shares owned by all
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the institutions taken together. It is a percentage of the total shares
outstanding.All other things being equal, a relatively large move may indicate
a forthcoming upward move in the stock price.
Intranet This is a collection of computers connected to one another and
usually located within a company or other organization. Unlike the internet,
the network is private and not principally intended for the public.
Java An island or a coffee bean or a programming language developed by Sun
Microsystems. It allows users to do lots of clever things with web pages.
LAN (local area network) A network of computers operating up to a few
thousand metres from each other.
Level I quotes Basic service of the Nasdaq stock market that displays current
bid and ask quotes.
Level II quotes Service of the Nasdaq stock market that displays current bid
and ask quotes and the bids and asks from all market-makers in a particular
stock.
Level III quotes Service of the Nasdaq stock market that allows a marketmaker or registered broker-dealer to enter a bid or ask on the electronic
trading system.
Limit The maximum permitted price move up or down for any given day,under
exchange rules.
Liquid market A market which permits relatively easy entry and exit of large
orders because there are so many buyers and sellers. Usually a characteristic
of a popular market.
Long A position, opened but not yet closed, with a buy order.
Long-term debt to total equity A measure of financial strength.The long-term
debt of the company divided by the total shareholder equity for the same
period. All other things being equal, a relatively high figure may indicate an
unhealthy company.
Margin A sum placed with a broker by a trader to cover against possible losses.
Margin call A demand for cash to maintain margin requirements.
Mark to market Daily calculation of paper gains and losses using closing
market prices. Also used to calculate any necessary margin that may be
payable.
Market capitalization This is the product of the number of shares outstanding
and the current price.
Market order See At the market.
MIME Multi-purpose internet mail extensions.This enables you to attach files
to e-mail.
Momentum An indicator used by traders to buy or sell. It is based on the
theory that the faster and further prices move in a particular direction, the
more likely they are to slow and turn.
Moving average A system used by traders to determine when to buy and sell.
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An average (simple, exponential, or other) is taken of the closing (or opening,
or other) prices over a specific number of previous days.A plot is made based
on the average. As each day progresses, the moving average has to be
recalculated to take account of the latest data and remove the oldest data.
Net After expenses, or short for the internet.
Net profit margin A measure of profitability.Income after taxes divided by the
total revenue for the same period. All other things being equal, downward
pressure on the net profit margin could provide advance warning of
impending share price decline.
Netiquette Proper net behaviour. For instance, swearing is neither appropriate
etiquette nor is it netiquette.
Network A group of computers connected to each other so that their users can
access each others machines.
Offer A price at which a seller is willing to sell.
Off-line browser A browser that permits viewing of sites previously
downloaded without being connected to the net.
Open position A position that has not yet been closed and therefore the trader
is exposed to market movements.
Overbought/oversold A term used to mean, broadly, that a stock is likely not
to move further in the current direction and may decline (overbought) or
advance (oversold).
PEG Price to earnings growth.The P/E ratio of a share divided by the estimated
future growth rate in earnings per share.
Position Trades which result in exposure to market movements.
Price, 52-week high This is the highest price the stock traded in the last 52
weeks. It may not necessarily be a closing high, it could be an intra-day high.
Price, 52-week low This is the lowest price the stock traded in the past 52
weeks. Could be an intra-day low price.
Price to book ratio The current price divided by the latest quarterly book
value per share. All other things being equal, a relatively low figure may
indicate the stock is undervalued.
Price to cash flow ratio The current price divided by the cash flow per share
for the trailing 12 months.All other things being equal, a relatively low figure
may indicate the stock is undervalued.
Price to earnings ratio The current share price divided by earnings per share
before extraordinary items, usually taken over the previous 12 months. All
other things being equal, a relatively low figure may indicate the stock is
undervalued.
Protocols A set of rules with which two computers must comply in order to
communicate.
Push technology The internet can be quite a passive experience, needing the
user to log onto a site to determine whether changes have occurred, or to
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download information. With push technology, the browser can be set to
automatically download data from a set site.
Put option A right, but not the obligation, existing for a specified period of
time, to sell a specific quantity of stock or other instrument at a specified
price.
Pyramiding The increase in size of an existing position by opening further
positions, usually in decreasing increments.
Quick ratio A measure of financial strength. Cash plus short-term investments
plus accounts receivable divided by current liabilities for the same period.All
other things being equal, a relatively high figure may indicate a healthy
company. See also Acid test ratio.
Return on assets A measure of management effectiveness. Income after taxes
divided by the total assets. All other things being equal, a relatively high or
growing figure may indicate a company doing well.
Return on capital employed (ROCE) The percentage of pre-tax operating
profit relative to capital invested.
Return on equity A measure of management effectiveness. Income available
to shareholders divided by the total common equity. All other things being
equal, a relatively high or growing figure may indicate a company doing well.
Return on investments A measure of management effectiveness. Income
after taxes divided by the average total assets and long-term debt. All other
things being equal,a relatively high or growing figure may indicate a company
doing well.
Revenue percent change year on year A measure of growth.The revenue of
the most recent period less the revenue of the previous period divided by the
revenue of the previous period.All other things being equal, a growing figure
indicates a growing company and should be reflected in a rising share price.
Sales per employee A measure of company efficiency.The total sales divided
by the total number of full-time employees.All other things being equal, the
greater this figure, the more efficient the company.
Sales percent change A measure of corporate growth.The value of sales for
the current period less the value of sales for the preceding period divided by
the value of sales for the preceding period, expressed as a percentage. All
other things being equal, a growing figure indicates a growing company and
should be reflected in a rising share price.
Scalper A trader who seeks to enter and exit the market very quickly and
thereby make a lot of small profits.
Seat Exchange membership that permits floor trading.
Server A computer that shares its resources with others.The resources may be
disk space, files or something else.
Shares outstanding The number of shares issued less those held in treasury.
Short An open position created by a sell order, in the expectation of a price
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decline and so the opportunity to profit by purchasing the instrument (so
closing out) at a lower price.
Short-term debt The value of debt due in the next 12 months.
SMTP (simple mail transfer protocol) The standard set of rules for
transferring e-mail messages from one computer to another.
Speculator An individual who purchases financial instruments in order to
profit. Often used to refer to a non-professional. Sometimes used derogatorily.
Spread The simultaneous purchase of one contract and the sale of a similar,but
not identical, contract. Depending on the exact combination, a profit can be
made from either a rising or falling market.
Stop order (stop-loss orders) An order left with a broker instructing him to
close out an existing position if the market price reaches a certain level. Can
be used to take profits or stop losses.
TCP/IP (transmission control protocol/internet protocol) A set of rules
used to connect to other computers.
Technical analysis Method used to forecast future prices using the price data
alone (for example,by plotting them on a chart and noting direction) or using
the price as an input in mathematical formulae and plotting the results. See
also Fundamental analysis.
Technical rally or decline A price movement resulting from factors unrelated
to fundamentals or supply and demand.
Tick The smallest possible price move.
Total debt to equity ratio A measure of financial strength. The total debt
divided by total shareholder equity for the same period.All other things being
equal, a relatively low figure is a sign of a healthy company.
Total operating expenses A measure of the cost of running the company.All
other things being equal, a lower figure is preferable to a higher one.
Trendline A line on a price chart indicating market price direction.The line
connects at least three price points which touch the line, with no prices
breaking the line.
Volatility A statistical indication of probable future price movement size (but
not direction) within a period of time. For example, 66% probability of a 15
pence move in three months.
Webcasting This is the internet trying to be older, like TV or radio. Instead of
viewing pages, you view a stream of data in the form of radio or video.
Unfortunately, the infrastructure is lacking to make this a popular alternative
to TV and radio.
Whipsaw A price move first in one direction and, shortly afterwards, in
another direction, thereby catching traders wrong-footed. Such markets may
be termed choppy. Such effects often give rise to false buy and sell signals,
leading to losses.
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Index
121 Internet Banking 195
411 Stocks 3940
A.G. Edwards xxi
Abbey National 191
accounts
checking status 207, 217
closing 223, 225
opening procedures 21011
types 20810, 212, 215, 218
using 2225
ADSL 6
ADV 989, 101
ADVFN 44
Africa, brokers 201
Africa News Online 201
Africa Online 201
AFX 47
Alpha Chart 85
Amazon.com xxi
Ameritrade 181
amortization 114
analysis see fundamental analysis;
technical analysis
analysts, professional securities 1357
and earnings estimates 14251
trading record xxxxi
annual dividends 123, 126
APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation) 198
Apple 146
Arabia Online 201
Arbor, Pat 27
Argentina, Ministry of Economy 198
Arnott, Robert xxx
Asia, brokers 1989
Asia Business Connection 198
Asia, Inc. Online 198
AsiaOne 198
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation see
APEC
Askresearch 86
asset allocation 243, 244
Asynchronous Digital Subscriber Line
see ADSL
Australia, brokers 199
The Australian Financial Review site
199
The Australian News Network 199
The Australian Online 199
average daily volume see ADV
Avid Traders Chat 276
Banca Sella 195
Banesto 195
Bank of Canada 196
Bank of England 200
Bank of Montreal 196
bar charts 59, 60, 63
Barclays 191
Baystreet.com 196
BBC News 263
Bear Sterns xxi
Belgium, brokers 195, 203
betas 99100, 101
Big Charts 86
Bloomberg 36, 263
BlueSky 1936
Brazil Financial Wire 198
brokers
charges 224
choosing 171206
315
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 316
facilities 215, 21617
interest rates 224
opening accounts 20712
sites 17990
trading record xxxxi
browsers 10, 1734
bulletin boards 27887
Business Times (Singapore) Online 198
buying procedures 21222
cable internet connections 6
Cain Rauscher xxi
Canada, brokers 1967, 202
Canada Investments and Savings 197
Canada NewsWire 197
Canada Trust 197
Canoe Money 197
capital spending, analyzing 103, 1612
cash accounts 2089, 212
cash flow, analyzing 10910, 11219,
160
CBC World Markets xxi
CBS Market Watch 37, 40, 41, 264
CD drives 5
Central America
brokers 198
investing in 38
Central Europe Online 200
charges
brokers 224
share transactions 17, 172, 175, 224
Charles Schwab 176, 183, 184, 191, 194
Charles Schwab Europe 184
charting 5984
websites and software 859
chat rooms 48, 275, 27887
China, brokers 199
China.com 199
China Business Net 199
China News Digest 199
ClearStation 254
CNBC 265
CNBC Asia Business News site 198
CNNfn 37
columns 34, 35
316
INDEX
Com Direct 191
Comdirect Bank 193
commentary 34, 35, 2627
companies
fundamental analysis 93167
researching 16, 17, 18, 19, 32, 4350
computers 46
continuation patterns 667, 68
costs
share transactions 17, 172, 175, 224
start-up 17
CPR Online 196
Credit Suisse 194
Credit Suisse First Boston xxi
CSFB Direct 182
Cyberinvest.com 196201
Czech Republic, investing in 200
DAB Bank 193
The Daily Rocket 265
Datek 185
day trading 16, 21
DecisionPoint 85
Dell 7
Denmark, brokers 200
Department of Finance (Canada) 197
Department of Foreign Affairs and
International Trade (Canada) 197
depreciation 114
Deutsche Bank xxi
director dealings 50
Discover 186
divergence see false divergence; MACD;
negative divergence; positive
divergence; reverse divergence
diversification 243, 244
dividend yield 1234, 126, 161
dividends
analyzing 1236
payment 223, 225
DLJ Direct 176, 182, 191
dollar cost averaging 243
DSL see ADSL
E*Trade 176, 187, 191, 193, 254
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 317
E*Trade UK 867, 188
earnings announcements 1423, 151
earnings estimates, analyzing 14251
earnings information, websites 1568
earnings per share 103
estimates 143
earnings surprises 1456, 151
Earnings Whispers 1567
eBanking 195
eBankinter 194
Egg 191
England, brokers 200
see also UK
EPS see earnings per share
Equis 85
equity 127, 161
estimates trends 1478, 151
Europe
brokers 1936, 2001
investing in 38, 44
Europe Online 200
European Investor 38
expected earnings announcements 143
experts see analysts, professional
securities; guru newsletters
e-zines 288
false divergence 80, 84
Far Eastern Economic Review site 198
Fastrad 192
features 34, 36
fill or kill orders see FOK orders
Fimatex 196
The Financial Center On-Line 276
Financial Times site 38, 46, 266
firewalls 173
First Call 157
FirstInvest.com 200
flag patterns 66, 67, 68
flaming 280
float 119, 121
Flynn, Phil 288
FOK orders 221, 222
France, brokers 196, 200, 203
free cash flow 114, 118
FT Market Watch 38
ft.com 38, 46, 200
fundamental analysis 50, 93151
web guides and tests 15367
gearing 117
Germany, brokers 193, 200, 203
The Globe and Mail site 197
GLOBEfund 197
Globes Arena 201
Goldman Sachs xxi
Gomez 179
gross margin and profit 130, 131, 133,
160
growth rates, analyzing company
1025
guru newsletters 26872
hard drives 5
hardware 38
Hargreaves Lansdown 192
head and shoulders patterns 64, 68
Hemmington Scott 17, 157
herding behaviour, and investment
returns 242, 244
Hoovers 17, 153
HSBC 189, 194
Hulbert Financial 271
Hungary, investing in 200
Hurst, Gerald 18
IAPs 89
iDealing 192
IMI Web Trader 195
IMIWeb 188
industries, researching 32
industry rank 138, 139
information sources
chat rooms and bulletin boards
27887
e-zines 288
guru newsletters 26872
market news and commentary
3153, 2627
newsgroups 2737
INDEX
317
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 318
InfoSel 197
Inside China Today 199
Insider Trader 154
insider trading, analyzing 1412, 154
Institute of Finance and Banking,
University of Goettingen 200
institutional ownership of stock,
analyzing 13941
insurance protection 173
Integrated Service Digital Network see
ISDN
Interactive Investor International 199,
254
interest rates
and investment returns 241, 244
online trading accounts 224
Interfax 201
internet access providers see IAPs
Internet Investing 179
internet service providers see ISPs
investment capital xxvii, 17
Investools 271
Investors Free Forum 276
Investorville 2812
ISDN 7
ISPs 89
Israel, brokers 201
Italy, brokers 195, 203
J.P. Morgan xxi
Japan, brokers 199
Japanese candlesticks 59, 60, 63
journal keeping 2356
Keynote Web Brokerage Index
180
La Gaceta de los Negocios 200
LatinFocus 38
Levitt,Arthur 18
limit orders 21920, 222
Lipschultz, Bill 227, 258
liquidity, and investment returns 242,
244
long, going 74
318
INDEX
Luxembourg, brokers 204
MACD indicators 717, 812, 84
McDonald Invest xxi
Macquarie Online 199
magazines, online 288
management effectiveness, analyzing
1279
margin accounts and trading 175,
20910, 212, 225
margins, analyzing 1303
market behaviour, effect of world
events xxiv
market capitalization 50, 11920, 121
market commentary 34, 35, 2627
market conditions, and investment
returns 242
Market Guide 956, 154
market news see news
market orders 21920, 222, 225
market pulse 34, 35
Market Technician Society 85
Marketforum 2823
markets, researching 32
maxblue 193
Mbendi 201
mean rating 136
Merrill Lynch xxi
Merrill Lynch HSBC 189, 194
MetaStock Online 87
Mexican Consulate 197
Mexico, brokers 197
Microsoft 43, 46
Middle East, brokers 201
Ministry of Economy (Argentina) 198
modems 6
momentum indicators 717
MACD 812, 84
RSI 80, 81
stochastic indicators 7981, 834
Money.net 38
Moneynet.com 39, 46, 254
monitoring 2515
sites 2534
monitors, computer 7
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 319
Morgan Stanley xxi, 186
The Motley Fool 276
moving average convergence
divergence see MACD
Multex Investor Network 155
Najarian, Jon 257, 268, 275
NatWest Selftrade 192
negative divergence 73, 75, 77
net gearing 117
net income, analyzing 11319
net margin and profit 131, 133
Netherlands, brokers 204
news 2627
about companies 4350
about sectors 402
importance 33
sites 369, 2626
types 324
newsgroups 2737
Newsletter Network 272
newsletters 26872
newswires 34, 35
Ni-Ka Online (Japan) 199
Nikkei Weekly (Japan) 199
nominee accounts 215, 218
North America, brokers 1967
Norway, brokers 204
OneTwo Trade 195
online trading
number of accounts xxvi, xxvii
portfolio monitoring 2515
record keeping 19, 2356, 24550
strategy and tactics 22734, 2458
timing trades 21718, 226
trades per investor xxviii
trading procedures 21222
types of trader 2367
value of business xxvii
value of trades xxix
versus offline 1723
Ontario Ministry of Finance 197
operating margin and profit 1301,
133, 160
operating systems 5
Oppetit, Bernard 251
orders
placing 21219, 221
types 21922
OTC bulletin boards 214
Outer Curve Finance 878
overbought securities 72
oversold securities 72
P/E ratio 1056, 111, 161, 162
Patagon 88, 194
Pathburner 189
payout ratio 125, 126
PBV ratio 1089, 111, 160
PCF ratio 10910, 111, 160
PEG 1067
pennant patterns 66, 67
percentage stop-losses 66, 69
percentile rank 138
performance, analyzing stock 1379
Poland, investing in 200
positive divergence 73, 75, 77
posting 280
price to book value ratio see PBV ratio
price to cash flow ratio see PCF ratio
price to earnings growth see PEG
price to earnings ratio see P/E ratio
price to sales ratio see PSR
prices, analyzing 978, 101
printers 8
processors 4, 5
profitability, analyzing company 115,
1303
Prophet Charts 88
protected investments 240
PSR 1078, 111
Quicken People & Chat 276
radiation, from monitors 7
RAM 5
random access memory see RAM
rank in industry 138, 139
recommendations tables 1356
INDEX
319
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 320
record keeping 19, 2356, 24550
rectangles 66, 68
regulatory news service see RNS
Relative Strength Indicators see RSI
Report on Business Magazine site 197
research see information sources
resistance levels 603
return on assets 127, 129
return on capital employed see ROCE
return on equity 127, 129, 161
return on investment 127, 129
Reuters Moneynet 39, 46, 254
revenue, company 130, 133
reversal patterns 62, 63, 645
reverse divergence 74, 75, 77
risk
personal attitude to 223, 23841
risk analysis 223
risk management 2367, 2434
types 2412, 244
RNS 47
Robertson Stephens xxi
ROCE 1278, 129
Rogers,Will 57
Romania, investing in 200
RSI 717, 80, 81
Russia, brokers 201
Russia Today 201
Russian Embassy 201
Rye, Man and Gor Securities 201
S&P Israel 201
sales, analyzing company 102
Salomon Smith Barney xxi
satellite internet connections 7
saucer patterns 65, 68
Scandinavia, brokers 200
Scandinavia OnTheNet 200
Schwab 176, 183, 184, 191, 194
ScoTTrade 190
search engines 11, 501, 25861
sector rotation 52
sectors, researching 32, 402
security, online trading sites 1734, 225
Selftrade 196
320
INDEX
selling procedures 215
Sharepeople 192
shares see stocks
shares outstanding 119, 121
short, going 74
short accounts 210, 212
The Silicon Investor 2834
SKATE 201
Smart Money Brokers Ratings 180
software
browsers 10, 1734
newsgroups 273
operating systems 5
technical analysis 89
South America
brokers 198, 200
investing in 38
Spain, brokers 1945, 200, 204
start-up costs 17
stochastic indicators 717, 7981, 834
The Stock Club 276, 285
Stock Talk 286
Stockacademy 191
Stockpoint 155
stocks
analyzing performance 1379
analyzing prices 978, 101
analyzing stock-related statistics
11922
historic performance xvixx
tracking online portfolio 223
trading see online trading
transferring to online accounts 223
Stocktrade 192
stop limit orders 219, 221, 222, 225
stop orders 21920, 222
strategy and tactics, devising 22734
Sun Microsystems 49
support levels 603
Sweden, brokers 204
SwissInvest.com 200
Swissquote 194
Switzerland, brokers 194, 200
T-1 and T-3 lines 7
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 321
tax rates, and profitability 131
TD Waterhouse 182, 192
technical analysis 50, 5790
software 89
web resources 859
ThaiStocks.com 199
TheStreet.com 176
Thomson Research 156
threads 280
ticker symbols 43, 44, 45
The Times of London site 200
timing trades 21718, 226
trading
ADV 989, 101
see also online trading
trading systems
importance 268
mechanical or discretionary 236, 29
strategy and tactics, devising 22734
Trading Tactics 85
Treasury, HM (UK) 200
trendlines 60, 61
momentum 74, 77
triangle patterns 645, 68
UBS 194
UK
brokers 1912, 1934, 200, 204
investing in 44
UK-iNvest.com 200
US/Mexico Chamber of Commerce
197
USA, brokers 202
USB PaineWebber xxi
USB Piper Jaffray xxi
valuation ratios 10512
Venezuela Analitica 198
VMS-Keytrade 195
volatility 2389, 244
Wall Street City 89
Wall Street Journal site 39, 266
Wall Street Journal Americas site
198
Westpac 199
Wilson HTM 199
Windows operating system 5
WorldlyInvestor 39
Yahoo! Finance Japan 199
Yahoo! Finance Message Boards 276
Yahoo! Finance UK 158
yield 1234, 126, 161
Zacks Investment Research 158
INDEX
321
index
22/3/02
3:10 pm
Page 322
TRADING ONLINE
Alpesh Patel
ISBN 0 273 65041 6
Read the book, jump aboard the cyber-train and
become a better investor. Guy Knight, Vice
President, Charles Schwab Europe
The best guide available on how to use the Internet
to improve investing performance and reduce
costs. Internet Investor
You have two choices, buy this book or attend a
$5000 course on cyber-trading. Id take the former.
Neal T. Weintraub, Floor Trader and author of Tricks of the
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Trading Online offers the most comprehensive and
forward-thinking guide on how to deal in the new
millennium world markets. Jack Wigglesworth,
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Visit our website at
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