Investigating Day-of-the-Week Effect in Stock Returns: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange - Pakistan
Investigating Day-of-the-Week Effect in Stock Returns: Evidence From Karachi Stock Exchange - Pakistan
from 2004 - 2007 and other democratic government 2008 - 2011. The period I shows
great political uncertainty. Prime Ministers of Pakistan kept on changing as well the
country was ruled by a Militant President for the first time in history. Though, it was
seen as a period of unprecedented economic growth. This era evidenced optimum level
reserves, growth in GDP, high foreign investment, no requirement of IMF funds.
Pakistani stock markets offered more buoyancy and dynamism. However, the last year
of period, 2007 constituted some bad events emergency rule imposed by Pervaiz
Musharraf and stock market faced biggest one day decline; KSE-100 Index fell nearly
5%.
Although, Period II comprised of a period of democratic and political stability but it
confronted increased violence, political fights, suicide bombing, extensive flood, raised
militancy along western borders of the country, skyrocketing inflation and gigantic
budget deficits, huge IMF Loans, energy crises, accelerating unemployment, and
climbing oil prices in international market. All these resulted in the steep decay of the
stock market. However the market rebounded strongly in 2009 and the trend continued in
2011. As we know that investment pattern vary extensively due to consistently changing
expectations of investors and participants about economically beneficial strategies.
Investors, in order to get more benefits, are interested in investing or withdrawing on any
particular day of the week. In this paper we are going to answer that question: Is
there any day of the week on which investor can get more benefit by investment
or withdrawal?
4. Literature Review
Day-of-the-Week Effect proposes the stock returns vary among different trading days
of the week. The First day of the week is usually considered as a week day because the
market remains bearish, while on the last day of the week the market is found bullish.
It can be supported with the explanation given by Mehdian and Perry (2001), that
unfavorable news mostly announced during the weekend shake the confidence of the
investors; stimulate them to sell their holdings on the coming Monday. Increase in
supply of the stocks cause prices to fall and resultantly return declines. Some
researchers elucidated the reason for this anomaly is the investors psychology; due to
the announcement of bad news on the weekend investors feel pessimistic on the first
trading day, whereas they feel optimistic on the last trading day and proceed on sales
and purchases. Nevertheless, the above explanations are not enough to adequately
explain the phenomenon which makes this anomaly the subject for continuous research.
This section outlines the relevant work done by different academicians, researchers and
investigators: Some of the pioneers who have contributed on this particular area include
Cross (1973) and French (1980), studied 50 shares of Standard & Poors
Composite Index to find Day-of-the-Week Effect and claimed higher mean returns on
Friday and lower mean returns on Monday. Whereas, Berument and Kiymaz (2001)
reported highest and lowest returns on Wednesday and Monday respectively by studying
shares of Standard & Poors Composite Index using OLS and GARCH Model. In
addition, volatility was highest on Friday and lowest on Wednesday.
Gibbons and Hess (1981) and Keim and Stambaugh (1984) studied the Dow Jones
Industrial Index and found negative Monday returns. Keim also described the positive
correlation between Friday and Monday returns. Similarly, Draper and Paudyal (2002)
383
that stock market returns for Tuesday are higher and more volatile than other days
of the week. Bashir et al (2011) refuted Efficient Market Hypothesis in banking
sector of Pakistan. They studied the daily closing stock prices of 11 major trading
banks listed on KSE by using the Co-integration and VAR test.
The point of attention in the above literature is the employment of only one regression
equation to find several Day-of-the-Week Effects. This obvious shortcoming influenced
to enrich the literature with new methodology by giving possible explanation and insight
about this phenomenon, primarily focusing Pakistani equity market.
5. Data
The data comprises of daily closing price of KSE-100 index from January 01, 2004 to
December 30, 2011 except official holidays. It is pointed out here that KSE operates
five days in a week from Monday to Friday. We calculate natural log of daily returns in
order to reduce the effect of size of daily stock prices. The daily return is calculated
by using the following formula:
Sub Periods
Sub Period I
Sub Period II
Monday Effect:
Tuesday Effect:
Wednesday Effect:
Thursday Effect:
Friday Effect:
Where,
--
ex
386
387
1857
Mean
0.0501489
Standard Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
1.81241711
0.136
0.107
-0.136
5.874
0.000
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
193
10.6889
-4.8280
-0.062528
0.671
2.0431
4.174
0.789
0.175
4.820
0.348
Mon
N
Max. Return
Min. Return
Mean Return
P Value
Std. Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Std. Error
Kurtosis
Std. Error
188
193
3.9573
4.2498
-4.5342
-6.0624
0.250465
0.282602
0.021
0.005
1.4703
1.3934
2.162
1.942
-0.794
-0.692
0.177
0.175
1.709
2.717
0.353
0.348
Sub Period II
Tues
Wed
174
180
180
5.4056
-4.5346
-0.270874
0.018
1.5006
2.252
-0.224
0.184
1.891
0.366
8.2547
-12.8890
0.076235
0.543
1.6767
2.811
-1.821
0.181
22.031
0.360
388
4.7725
-5.1349
0.129554
0.230
1.4421
2.079
-0.373
0.181
2.250
0.360
197
195
4.5758
-4.4799
0.076064
0.465
1.4587
2.128
-0.570
0.173
2.262
0.345
4.2157
-4.2902
0.102683
0.267
1.2888
1.661
-0.625
0.174
1.968
0.346
Thur
Fri
181
175
4.7032
-42.4288
-0.244521
0.331
3.3780
11.411
-10.908
0.181
136.742
0.359
4.3185
-4.7243
0.187450
0.050
1.3168
1.734
-0.197
0.184
2.991
0.365
In Sub Period I the mean return for Monday is lowest and Wednesday has the highest
mean return this result is similar to one found by Berument and Kiymaz (2001) studied
S&P 500 stock index. Monday shows lowest mean return and Friday shows highest
mean return in Sub Period II. These results are consistent with Fields (1931), Cross
(1973) and French (1980).
Another substantial phenomenon is Volatility. In Sub Period I, Monday returns are most
volatile as it possesses highest variance, skewness and Kurtosis. In Sub Period II,
Thursday returns show highest variance, skewness and Kurtosis. Another difference
between both Sub Periods is that Sub Period II has high variance, skewness and kurtosis
values than Sub Period I. High skewness suggests a less developed market moving
asymmetrically to 'news' and huge kurtosis provides that movements of share prices are
very large. Gupta (1997) termed these movements the result of "euphoria to despondency
cycles".
8.2 OLS Regression Results
Table 5 and table 6 exhibit the estimates of parameters along with t- statistics for Sub
Period I and II respectively for each day effect. The significance is considered at 5%
level. F Value is also calculated by testing model for each day effect through ANOVA
at 5% significance level.
OLS results for Sub Period I negate the presence of Day-of-the-Week Effect since most
of the coefficients are not significant from each other, except one in Thursday and
Friday effect; which is insufficient for drawing any conclusion. Furthermore, ANOVA
suggests all the five models are insignificant because the F significance value for all
models is higher than 0.05. Therefore the null hypothesis is accepted with the conclusion
that the mean stock returns across all trading days of the week are not significantly
different and Day-of-the-Week Effect not is present in Sub Period I (2004 2007).
These Findings are consistent with Ahmed and Roser (1995), Husain (1999), Nishat and
Mustafa (2002), Mahmood (2007), Ali and Akbar (2009). The results are shown in table
5.
389
-0.036
-0.101
0.094
-0.038
-0.054
0.527
t - stat.
-0.99123
0.883836
-0.362
-0.46243
Test Insignificant
3
0.033
0.4297
4
0.079
1.0605
5
-0.029
-0.347
F Value
P Value
0.641
0.634
Test Insignificant
2
0.031
0.430
4
-0.031
-0.434
F Value
P Value
0.382
0.822
Test Insignificant
2
0.077
1.060
3
-0.033
-0.43399
5
-0.188
-2.305*
F Value
P Value
1.721
0.147
Test Insignificant
2
-0.023
-0.34723
3
-0.045
-0.67138
4
-0.150
-2.30453*
F Value
P Value
1.545
0.191
Test Insignificant
Tuesday Effect
1
0.0234
-0.053
-0.9912
t - stat.
Wednesday Effect
1
0.2814
0.045
0.884
t - stat.
Thursday Effect
1
0.099
-0.19
-0.362
t - stat.
Friday Effect
1
0.121
-0.022
-0.46243
t - stat.
F-Value
-0.054
-0.671
P-Value
0.716
In Sub Period II, three significant coefficients found in Monday and Tuesday effect;
whereas, two in Wednesday, Thursday and Friday effect. Moreover, ANOVA
recommends the F-values for all the five models found significant. This depicts the
presence of Day-of-the-Week Effect. Therefore the null hypothesis has been rejected and
it is concluded that the mean stock returns across all trading days of the week are
significantly different and Day-of-the-Week Effect is present in Sub Period II (20082011). Further, there is conclusive evidence of significant negative Monday returns and
positive Friday returns; since it shows lowest and highest significant mean returns on
Monday and Friday respectively. It leads to the conclusion that Negative Monday and
Positive Friday effect is present in KSE in Sub Period II (2008 2011). These results
are consistent with the findings of Fields (1931), Cross (1973), French (1980) and with
Haroon (2005). Whereas, sharply contrasts the study on Day-of-the-Week Effect in KSE
by Ahmed and Roser (1995), Husain (2000), Nishat and Mustafa (2002), Mahmood
(2007), by Basher and Sadorsky (2006), Ali and Akbar (2009), and Husain et al
(2011). The results are vivid from table 6.
390
-0.036
-0.101
0.094
-0.038
-0.054
t - stat.
-0.99123
0.883836
-0.362
-0.46243
Test Insignificant
3
0.033
0.4297
4
0.079
1.0605
5
-0.029
-0.347
F Value
P Value
0.641
0.634
Test Insignificant
2
0.031
0.430
4
-0.031
-0.434
5
-0.054
-0.671
F Value
P Value
0.382
0.822
Test Insignificant
2
0.077
1.060
3
-0.033
-0.43399
5
-0.188
-2.305*
F Value
P Value
1.721
0.147
Test Insignificant
2
-0.023
-0.34723
3
-0.045
-0.67138
4
-0.150
-2.30453*
F Value
P Value
1.545
0.191
Test Insignificant
Tuesday Effect
1
0.0234
-0.053
-0.9912
t - stat.
Wednesday Effect
1
0.2814
0.045
0.884
t - stat.
Thursday Effect
1
0.099
-0.19
-0.362
t - stat.
Friday Effect
1
0.121
-0.022
-0.46243
t - stat.
F Value
P Value
0.527
0.716
9. Conclusion
This study proposed new methodology to find Day-of-the-Week Effect. Five OLS
regression equations were built to find each Day-of-the-Week Effect as suggested by
(Borges, 2009). We mainly focus on KSE-100 Index of Karachi Stock Exchange but the
methodology possesses applicability in any stock market. The study found mixed
results for both Sub Periods. Sub Period I (2004 2007) negates the prevalence of
Day-of-the-Week Effect due to political instability. Moreover, study evidenced the
presence of Day-of-the-Week Effect in Sub Period II. The argument to support this
result might be that the period after election in 2008 - 2011 comprised of democracy
and political stability in terms of government and fairly consistent policies.
OLS regression for Period II revealed a negative Monday and Positive Friday effect.
These results are consistent with findings of Fields (1931), Cross (1973), French (1980).
Finally, we conclude that investors can get more benefit by investment or withdrawal on
Monday and Friday.
In future, research may be conducted on Individual securities as well as industry
groups. Moreover, seasonality may also be tested by considering the volatility pattern in
returns.
Models for heteroscedasticity like ARCH, GARCH, T-GARCH and EGARCH may be employed to find more significant results. Further researches must be
conducted to find the impact of politics and other fundamental factors on anomalies
in stock returns. I s u g g e s t t h a t t he institutions and brokers who provide financial
services should include seasonal anomalies in their analysis.
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