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Technology Forecasting and Assessment - 1

This document provides an overview of key technology concepts including the classification of technologies, the technology adoption process, technology forecasting methods, and strategies for managing technological change. It discusses emerging, core, pacing and supporting technologies. It also summarizes theories of diffusion like Rogers' innovation decision process and factors that influence adoption rates. Forecasting methods include qualitative approaches like Delphi process and trend analysis. The document outlines strategies for responding to technological changes and disseminating new technologies.

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solo_sudhan
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153 views

Technology Forecasting and Assessment - 1

This document provides an overview of key technology concepts including the classification of technologies, the technology adoption process, technology forecasting methods, and strategies for managing technological change. It discusses emerging, core, pacing and supporting technologies. It also summarizes theories of diffusion like Rogers' innovation decision process and factors that influence adoption rates. Forecasting methods include qualitative approaches like Delphi process and trend analysis. The document outlines strategies for responding to technological changes and disseminating new technologies.

Uploaded by

solo_sudhan
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction To Technology

Technology Practical application of scientific and engineering knowledge.


Classification of Technology:
State-of-art technology: far superior to its counterparts.
Proprietary technology: protected by patents or agreements
Known Technology: Common to most organizations
Core Technology: essential to maintain once competitive advantage
Leveraging technology: supports number of products, product lines.
Supporting technology: provides support to core technology
Pacing technology: controlling the rate of development
Emerging technology: For future products or process
Scouting Technology: Formal tracking of potential products and processes.
Idealised unknown basic technology: Technology, if available would provide greater
benefit.
Origin of Technology:
Stone, Fire, Clothing and shelter, Wheel, Industrial Revolution
3 Level of Development Individual, Tacit Knowledge codified, Available to Large people.
Topology of Technology Small Batch, Large Batch or Mass production, Continuous Processing.
New Engineering Process:
Meta-Process for Producing Process:
Factors determining Requirement Process:
Size and Complexity, Contractual Issues, Legal and Regulatory Issues, Support for
Assessment, Distributed Development, Business criticality, Requirements Volatility,
Stakeholder Involvement, Process Breath, Corporate culture, Tool Compatibility, Metrics,
Budget, Process Framework, Size and Completeness, Cost and Tailorability.
Learn the process framework
Select the relevant RE process components
Select the requirements work product
Select the requirements language
Select the requirements work units
Select the requirement producers
Select the requirements stages
Tailor the selected RE process component
Document the RE process component
Integrate the RE process component
Verify the RE process component
Complete, Consistent, Usable, Validate, Approve and Publish.
Benefits of RE: Increased Product quality, process quality, productivity and schedule,
consistency and compatibility
Organisational Redesign
People Responsible Organisational Leader, Steering Team, Design Team, Implementation
Team, Renewal Team, Consultant.
Team Building Process Forming, Storming, Norming, Performing and Reforming.
Types of Design: Steady State design, Dynamic Design.
Steps Involved in Org Redesign Determine Design Direction, Develop Design, Planning
Implementation, Implementation and Evaluation.
BPR Tools and Techniques: Purpose Analysis, Competitive Comparision, Process Quality
Management, Strategic Capacity Analysis, Core Competencies, Make Vs Buy Decision, Critical

Success Factors, Change Management, Brown Paper flowcharting, Process Activity Analysis,
Waste Analysis, Benchmarking, Product Life cycle analysis, Pareto Analysis, Control System
Analysis, Risk Analysis, SWOT, Simulations.
Technology Cycle
Technology Cycle R & D, Growth, Maturity, Decline
Technology Cycle Management
Assess and Identify the Need, Validate Business Objectives, Check the Environment, Select
the Technology, Acquire the Technology, Do Logistics Planning and Deployment Scheduling,
Integration and Implementation, Support Services, Technology Refresh, Asset Disposal
Strategy, Financial Planning.
Responding to Technological Changes:
Challenges of Changes, Dimension of Uncertainty, Issues and Concerns.
Adoption of Technology
Technology Adoption 5 Steps: Awareness, Assessment, Acceptance, Learning, Usage
or Awareness, Interest, Evaluation, Trial and Adoption.
Determinants of Adoption
Skill level of workers and state of capital goods sector
Customer commitment and relationship
Supplier behaviour
Improvements in new technologies
Government and Regulation
Resistance to Adoption
How to Identify Resistance : Request for more details, Time, Impracticality (real world
problems), Attack (Angry loud words), Confusion, Silence, Intellectualizing, Compliance,
Methodology
How to understand underlying concern Lack of Control, Vulnerability, Lack of Vision, Cultural
Conflicts
Reaction to Change (Viewed as Positive) Uninformed certainty (Confidence), Informed doubt
(Pessimism), Resistance, (May go negative), Realistic Concern, Informed Certainty.
Reaction to Change (Viewed as Negative) Stunned Paralysis, Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Fear,
Depression, Exploration, Acceptance.
Technology Adoption Tendencies Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Adopters,
Laggards.
Factors account for enduser resistance:
Discomfort with Change, Disagreement with Change, Inability to see the value of change,
Inability to make time for change
Different method of Adoption:
Phased Adoption, Parallel Adoption
Theories of Diffusion:
Innovation Decision process: Knowledge about Innovation, See the value of Innovation, Decide
to Adopt, Implementation, Confirmation on Usage.
Individual Innovators:
Rate of Adoption: S-Curve Slow, Gradual growth, Dramatic and rapid growth, Gradual
stabilization and decline.
Perceived Attributes: Can be tried out, Results can be observed, Relative advantage, Easy to
learn or less complex, Fits in or Compatibility.

Technology Forecasting
Forecasting Predicting future state or opinions about future.
Six Phases of Forecasting Identify the need, Prepare project, Define Objectives, Perform
Analysis and Develop Technology Forecast (TF), Validate Results, Application of TF.
Technology Forecast Methods Qualitative and Quantitative.
Delphi Process Opinion Gathering and Distribution, Iterative Balloting, Reasons and
Consensus, Group Composition
Trend Analysis Fitting a Trend, Trend + Noise, Fitting a Straight Line, Auto Correlation.
Analogy:
Soft System Methodology: unstructured problematic situation, Key stakeholders, Creating root
definitions, conceptual models based on worldviews, Compare model with reality, Identify
change, Improve situation.
Mathematical Model: Linear Vs Nonlinear, Deterministic Vs Probabilistic, Static Vs Dynamic,
Lumped Parameters Vs Distributed Parameters.
System Dynamics approach to understand the behaviour of complex systems over time.
S-Curve:
TIFAC
TIFAC - Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment council.
REACH Relevance & Excellence in ACHieving new heights in educational instritutions)
Roles: Technology Forecast, Technology Assessment and Techno Market Survey
12 Areas : Educational Technologies, Energy Technologies, Environment, Food and Agriculture,
Global Challenge Issues, Habitant, Information and Communication Technologies,
Infrastructure, Materials and Manufacturing Technologies, Medical Science and Health care,
Transportation, Water Technologies.
Dissemination of Technology
Alternative Technologies
Alternative Technologies Is a term used to refer to technologies that are more environment
friendly.
Strategy Corporate Strategy, Competitive Strategy, Functional Strategy
Competitive Strategy Competitiveness, Sustainability, Profitability, Customer Focus,
Competitive Advantage, Price.
Strategy Management Fit Vs Stretch Strategy, Firm Level- SWOT analysis
Porter Five Force Model Threat of New potential entrant, Threat of Substitute product /
services, Bargaining Power of suppliers, Bargaining power of customers, Rivalry amount
current competitors.
Factory and Office Automation
Office Automation Systems:
Document Management
System

Communication Systems

Teleconferencing System

Dictation System,
Typewriters, Computers,
Printers and Scanners,
Archival Storage, Photo
Copiers,

Telex (50 char), Teletex (200


char), Videotext, fax, EPABX,
Wrokstations, Emails, Internet
/ Intranet,

Audio Tele, Video Tele,


Computer Conference.

Business Process Reengineering:


Process- Preparation for Change, Planning for Change, Designing Change, Evaluating the
change.
Collaborative Knowledge
Collaborative Environment:
Organisation Foster and Innovative work Environment
Wide variety of spaces for increasingly casual exchanges
Innovation and Speed of decision making is improved.

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