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Math 243. Lab 4 Binomial Distribution: Location Long-Term Mean % of Clear Days in Dec

1. The document provides long-term weather data from various locations in the United States listing the percentage of clear days in December on average. It then uses this data to calculate the binomial probability of the number of clear days for each location in December using a binomial probability model. 2. Tables are shown with the probabilities of getting 0 to 31 clear days calculated for each location using the binomial distribution formula. 3. The tables are then used to estimate the probabilities of certain weather scenarios in December for each location, such as the chance of 7 or fewer clear days in Juneau or 20 or more clear days in Phoenix.

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495 views

Math 243. Lab 4 Binomial Distribution: Location Long-Term Mean % of Clear Days in Dec

1. The document provides long-term weather data from various locations in the United States listing the percentage of clear days in December on average. It then uses this data to calculate the binomial probability of the number of clear days for each location in December using a binomial probability model. 2. Tables are shown with the probabilities of getting 0 to 31 clear days calculated for each location using the binomial distribution formula. 3. The tables are then used to estimate the probabilities of certain weather scenarios in December for each location, such as the chance of 7 or fewer clear days in Juneau or 20 or more clear days in Phoenix.

Uploaded by

edexannisse
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Math 243.

Lab 4
Binomial distribution

The following percentages were obtained over many years of observation by the U.S. Weather Bureau
Location Long-term
mean % of
clear Days in
Dec.
Juneau, Alaska 18%

Seattle, 24%
Washington

Hilo, Hawaii 36%


Honolulu, Hawaii 60%

Las Vegas, 75%


Nevada

Phoenix, Arizona 77%

In the locations listed, the month of December is a relatively stable month with respect to weather. Si
it is reasonable to use a binomial probability model.
1.       Let x be the number of clear days in December. Since December has 31 days, x will be
Using Excel, find the probability P(x) for each of the listed locations. Fill in appropriate tables

Click on the cell B4. With your mouse Click on FORMULAS tab > FUNCTION LIBRARY >MORE
Under numbers select cell A4; under trials put in the number of trials (n) - number of days; u
(as decimal of course); under cumulative : for just probability, P(r), use “false” and for cumulative pro
on the right lower corner of the cell drag it all the way to day 31. Now you have the probabilities for e

Answer the following questions by using the tables you’ve created.


2.       Estimate the probability that Juneau will have at most 7 clear days in December.
approximately 82%

3.       Estimate the probability that Seattle will have from 5 to 10 (including 5 and 10) clear day

approx: 79%

4.       Estimate the probability that Hilo will have at least 12 clear days in December.

approx 70%
5.       Estimate the probability that Phoenix will have 20 or more clear days in December.

approx 96%

6.       Estimate the probability that Las Vegas will have from 20 to 25(including 20 and 25) clea

approx 76%
U.S. Weather Bureau. All data listed are for the month of December.

spect to weather. Since weather patterns from one day to the next are more or less the same,

31 days, x will be 0≤ ≤ x
31
n appropriate tables on the next worksheet (see tabs).

N LIBRARY >MORE FUNCTIONS > choose STATISTICAL > BINOMDIST.


- number of days; under the probability put in the probability of having clear days in December for that location
d for cumulative probability, P(at least r successes) use “true”. After the answer had appeared in the first cell, c
e probabilities for each day. Repeat it for all of the columns.

December.

g 5 and 10) clear days in December.

December.
s in December.

ding 20 and 25) clear days in December.


mber for that location (p)
red in the first cell, click on it and by putting the mouse
Lab.4 Binomial probabilities.
Juneau Seattle Hilo
Days Prob. Days Prob. Days
0 0 0 0 0
1 0.01 1 0 1
2 0.05 2 0.01 2
3 0.1 3 0.03 3
4 0.16 4 0.06 4
5 0.18 5 0.11 5
6 0.18 6 0.15 6
7 0.14 7 0.17 7
8 0.09 8 0.16 8
9 0.05 9 0.13 9
10 0.02 10 0.09 10
11 0.01 11 0.05 11
12 0 12 0.03 12
13 0 13 0.01 13
14 0 14 0.01 14
15 0 15 0 15
16 0 16 0 16
17 0 17 0 17
18 0 18 0 18
19 0 19 0 19
20 0 20 0 20
21 0 21 0 21
22 0 22 0 22
23 0 23 0 23
24 0 24 0 24
25 0 25 0 25
26 0 26 0 26
27 0 27 0 27
28 0 28 0 28
29 0 29 0 29
30 0 30 0 30
31 0 31 0 31
Honolulu Las Vegas
Prob. Days Prob. Days
0 0 0 0
0 1 0 1
0 2 0 2
0 3 0 3
0 4 0 4
0.01 5 0 5
0.02 6 0 6
0.05 7 0 7
0.08 8 0 8
0.11 9 0 9
0.14 10 0 10
0.15 11 0 11
0.14 12 0.01 12
0.11 13 0.02 13
0.08 14 0.04 14
0.05 15 0.06 15
0.03 16 0.09 16
0.01 17 0.12 17
0.01 18 0.14 18
0 19 0.14 19
0 20 0.13 20
0 21 0.1 21
0 22 0.07 22
0 23 0.04 23
0 24 0.02 24
0 25 0.01 25
0 26 0 26
0 27 0 27
0 28 0 28
0 29 0 29
0 30 0 30
0 31 0 31
Phoenix
Prob. Days Prob.
0 0 0
0 1 0
0 2 0
0 3 0
0 4 0
0 5 0
0 6 0
0 7 0
0 8 0
0 9 0
0 10 0
0 11 0
0 12 0
0 13 0
0 14 0
0 15 0
0 16 0
0.01 17 0.01
0.03 18 0.01
0.06 19 0.04
0.13 20 0.08
0.23 21 0.16
0.37 22 0.27
0.53 23 0.42
0.69 24 0.59
0.82 25 0.75
0.92 26 0.87
0.97 27 0.95
0.99 28 0.98
1 29 1
1 30 1
1 31 1

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