Ceps Task Force Report 2011
Ceps Task Force Report 2011
INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE EU
CHAIR
BERNHARD HMMERLI
President, Swiss Informatics Society
RAPPORTEUR
ANDREA RENDA
Senior Research Fellow, CEPS
ISBN: 978-94-6138-070-8
Copyright 2010, Centre for European Policy Studies.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the Centre for
European Policy Studies.
Centre for European Policy Studies
Place du Congrs 1, B-1000 Brussels
Tel: (32.2) 229.39.11 Fax: (32.2) 219.41.51
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.ceps.eu
CONTENTS
Foreword ................................................................................................................. i
Main policy recommendations ............................................................................ 1
Executive summary ............................................................................................... 3
1.
2.
3.
4.
Selected references................................................................................................90
Glossary of terms ..................................................................................................95
List of Task Force members, invited guests and speakers ..............................98
List of Figures
Figure 1. Example of interdependencies between sectors ..............................13
Figure 2. Example of propagation chain for the electricity network .............14
Figure 3. Threats and remedies in current CIP policy .....................................15
Figure 4. Interdependencies ................................................................................16
Figure 5. The progression of infrastructure vulnerability ..............................18
Figure 6. Cross-border interdependencies ........................................................19
Figure 7. Cyber-security and CIIP ......................................................................28
Figure 8. Services offered by CERTs with National Responsibility ..............30
Figure 9. Phases of the CIP event cycle .............................................................34
Figure 10. The crisis life-cycle (simplified)........................................................36
Figure 11. Basic elements of vulnerability assessment ....................................37
Figure 12. CSIRT activity in Europe ...................................................................43
Figure 13. Efficiency and robustness..................................................................51
Figure 14. Rational ignorance .............................................................................57
Figure 15. NSTB library and the I3P Security Metrics Development
framework ...........................................................................................61
Figure 16. Example of vulnerability tree ...........................................................62
Figure 17. A risk evaluation matrix for CIIP.....................................................63
Figure 18. Comprehensiveness of sector-specific plans in the US .................64
Figure 19. Results of a survey .............................................................................65
Figure 20. The energy trilemma ..........................................................................68
Figure 21. Key pillars of a CIP strategy .............................................................75
List of Tables
Table 1. Definitions of critical infrastructure in selected countries ...............22
Table 2. Sectoral coverage of national CIP plans..............................................23
Table 3. PARSIFAL main recommendations ....................................................66
Table 4. Market-based v. security-based issues in the energy field...............69
Table 5. Options for governance .........................................................................73
Table 6. Information-sharing in the US: Key dimensions ...............................77
FOREWORD
ii | FOREWORD
O
follo
owers for thee good of all parties. In ad
ddition, suppliers and serv
vice
prov
viders must become
b
allies of the EC and
d the nationall governmentss in
ordeer to keep up
p the pace off the evolving
g C(I)IP proceess. Furthermo
ore,
econ
nomic incentiives should be
b given to su
upport C(I)IP
P and to addrress
sociial responsibility, i.e. enhaancing preparedness and resilience wh
hile
overrcoming the tendency to focus exclusiively on max
ximum econom
mic
corp
porate benefit.
pproaching C(I)IP
Against thiss background,, we highly reecommend ap
as though
t
it werre analogous to
t civil emerg
gency plannin
ng. The EU must
m
geneerate successfful cooperatio
on, just as Preesident Barrosso did in Aug
gust
20055, by announccing support to the firefigh
hters in Portu
ugal and send
ding
aircrraft from otheer member staates (Italy, Grreece, France aand Spain). Su
uch
actio
ons create goo
od will and exccitement, and help resolve th
he situation.
This report is the result of
o a collective effort by all p
participants of the
Task
k Force. With
hout their support, their wiillingness to ccontribute and
d to
engaage in discusssion, this worrk would never have seen the light of day.
d
Therefore, I woulld like to exp
press my deep
pest gratitude to all those who
w
supp
ported the CEPS
C
Task Fo
orce, and especially to CE
EPS itself, to the
Rap
pporteur Andrrea Renda, an
nd to Staffan Jerneck, Ann
ne-Marie Boud
dou
and Christopher Napoli, who
o organised the
t
Task Forcce meetings and
a
facillitated the excchange of info
ormation betw
ween participants. On behallf of
the whole Task Force,
F
I hope that this repo
ort will contribute to a fasster,
stronger and bettter coordinatted C(I)IP po
olicy both in Europe and
d in
indiividual member states.
The
T Chairman of the Task Fo
orce
5. Foster trust between information-sharing partners. Public-privatepartnership (PPPs) are a good way to facilitate trusted informationsharing among the key EU stakeholders; however, given the unique
challenge posed by the need to coordinate the approach across the EU
27, it needs to be carefully planned and orchestrated. It needs time,
clear rules, sector-specific arrangements and sharing units of limited
size: this issue needs to be addressed upfront and carefully in order to
ensure successful international and EU-level cooperation.
6. Develop common approaches for C(I)I risk assessment based on the
ongoing production of data and relevant information. The EU should
promote the development and adoption of common risk metrics and
standardized approaches for risk identification, assessment and
management in the field of CIP. This cannot be an EU-level effort only,
since it requires, inter alia, the constant production of data and statistics
at national level. Without the availability of reliable data, a meaningful
and thorough approach to CIP is not feasible.
7. Adopt a new approach for industry-government cooperation. The EU
should adopt a flexible approach to CIP policy, by establishing, through
primary legislation, only the general principles and main outcomes
sought through EU CIP policy, and leaving it to the industry to devise
the best technical measures that fulfil the desired levels of resilience.
8. Integrate CIP into the EU policy-making processes. Impacts on CI
resilience should be introduced as a mandatory step in the
Commissions Impact Assessment system, whenever the policy issue in
hand potentially affects, even indirectly, the resilience or vulnerability
of CIs.
9. Develop policy validation methodologies. Methodologies to stress-test
existing policies should be developed through public funding of ad hoc
research projects. In particular, these projects should look at how to test
interdependencies between CIs and potential cascading effects
triggered by failures of given infrastructures, based on models or
simulation games.
10. Establish indicators and criteria for success. Criteria and indicators to
assess the outcomes of national and EU-wide information-sharing
initiatives are needed, in order to allow the tracking of progress
towards common, coordinated goals in CIP policy.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CIPpolicyfeaturesvery
peculiareconomicproblems,
fromexternalitiestorational
ignoranceandbounded
rationalityissues,allcalling
forpublicintervention
The key foundations of a CIP policy are a widely communicated vision and a
forward-looking strategy, coupled with strong political commitment. The
key pillars are then the identification of gaps in the development of
standards and best practices, strengthening education and training
for the development of new professional skills in the CIP domain, the
promotion and support of R&D for the development of improved CI
protection technologies and methods, and information-sharing.
Operationally, the key phases of the CIP cycle are often identified as
follows: i) analysis and assessment; ii) remediation; and (iii)
indications and warnings, before the adverse event occurs. In
addition, they include iv) mitigation; v) incident response; and (vi)
reconstitution, after the event (or succession of events) has occurred.
Trust is a key dimension in any information-sharing exercise and
should be addressed by CIP policy, knowing that building trust
needs time, clear rules, sector-specific arrangements and limited
group size.
6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Different sectors have different needs when it comes to CIP policy. For
example, coupling national public-private-partnerships (PPPs) with a
global partnership and intelligence centre in the financial sector
would provide a compelling mechanism to increase the resilience of
the financial infrastructure. However, global action is hampered by
the heterogeneity of potential participants, as well as conflicting
interests, diverging knowledge bases and high transaction costs. For
8 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
See, inter alia, Ivo Bouwmans, Margot P.C. Weijnen and Adrian Gheorghe,
Infrastructures at Risk, in A.V. Gheorghe, M. Masera, M Weijnen and De L. Vries
(2006), Critical Infrastructures at Risk, Springer Netherlands, (2006), pp. 19-36.
1
Idem, quoting US-Canada, Power System Outage Task Force Final Report on
the 14 August 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and
Recommendations, (2004). And P. Pourbeik, P. S. Kundur and C. W. Taylor, The
Anatomy of a Power Grid Blackout, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine,
September/October issue, pp. 22-29, (2006).
3
See Los Angeles Times, Gulf Oil Spill: Katrina on Obama Administrations mind, 2
May 2010, by Paul Harris, at http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2010/
05/katrina-on-obama-administrations-mind-in-oil-spill-response.html.
|9
See Global Risks 2008. A Global Risk Network Report, available online at
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/report2008.pdf.
See OECD, Malicious software (Malware): A Security Threat to the Internet Economy,
Ministerial
Background
Report,
DSTI/ICCP/REG(2007)5/FINAL,
at:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/53/34/40724457.pdf. The estimate however
8
estimates are available for the EU or for the majority of EU member states.
This lack of data makes it more difficult to both frame the issues and
provide a deeper analysis of the challenges faced by the EU.
An important development highlighted by many governments and
field experts is that critical infrastructures have become increasingly
mutually dependent.9 This means than a denial of service in, say, the
energy sector can have immediate repercussions for many other
infrastructures, from the financial services networks to the internet, gas and
transportation networks, generating a cascading effect that ultimately
harms society exponentially. For example, the Canadian government
reported that:
during the 1998 Ice Storm, large segments of rural and urban
communities were in the dark and without heat. Traffic and street
lights were out. Banking and government services were
interrupted. The disruption in one sector electricity affected a
score of others, interrupting the delivery of important services
upon which Canadians depend.10
10
PROTECTING
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S
Source:
Rinaldi et al. (2001).
1
12
See http://ecc.europa.eu/ten
n/index_en.htm
ml.
13
PROTECTING
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however, ten
h
nd to remain local due to
o enforcemen
nt, jurisdiction
n, and
c
capacity
issues. In this respeect, what migh
ht be termed a glocal strateegy, i.e.
a circuit of glo
obally coordinaated local regu
ulators, is need
ded.
F
Figure
3. Threaats and remediess in current CIP
P policy
S
Source:
Gresser (22010), the PARSIF
FAL project.
Faced with
w
this pro
oblem, EU member
m
statess are still pu
ursuing
ffragmented C(I)IP policies, and
a there is sttill a significan
nt lack of cooperation
b
between
national governm
ments and EU
E
institution
ns in setting up a
c
coordinated
em
mergency resp
ponse to poten
ntial threats. P
Put another way,
w
the
h
higher
risk to which we ex
xpose our dailly activities iss not mirrored
d by an
i
increased
resp
ponse potentiaal on the part of the EU insttitutions. And
d this is
e
even
more important
i
if we think that
t
member states are indeed
i
interdependen
nt: even if the internet backb
bone is not ev
venly spread over the
E
EU27,
several critical infrasstructures are cross-border infrastructurees, and
f those the weakest linkss i.e. the cou
for
untries with a weaker emeergency
r
response
poten
ntial affects the vulnerabillity of all coun
ntries. For exam
mple, if
2 out of 27 countries haave sufficientlly strong pollicies to proteect the
26
i
internet
backb
bone or challlenge the spread of malw
ware, this do
oes not
g
guarantee
the resilience of the
t internet neetwork throug
ghout the EU. It
I takes
n more than
no
n one country to disrupt th
he whole systeem and exposse it to
t
threats.
This reasoning ap
pplies increasingly to thee global leveel, and
p
potentially
caalls for coopeeration even beyond EU borders. Failling to
a
achieve
this go
oal also meanss increasing th
he likelihood o
of a successful attack.
Figure 4. Interdependencies
Private and public. The actors are many, and most infrastructures are
private. The state can no longer ensure security and must rely on
information-sharing with other actors involved. A well-conceived
public-private partnership is thus needed and crucial to the success of
any CIP policy.
14
15
Dynamic pressures
- Feeling of
disempowerment
among young
people and
marginal groups
- Weightless
economy
- Standardisations
across the globe
- Changing lifestyle
preferences
- Communication
society
- Increasing
dependence on
information and
communication
systems across societal
functions
- Complex
interconnectedness of
vital systems
- Wide adoption of
common protocols
Unsafe conditions
- Growing
capability in
individuals and
groups to do serious
harm
- Advances in rogue
programming
practices
- Wide availability of
hacker libraries
- Hidden
functionalities in
software
- Ordinary users
decreasing ability to
keep abreast with
their systems
- Interdependence
between PTNs and the
internet
- Attempts to shorten
lead times in public
and private services
Hazards/triggers
- Terrorist/
hacker attack
Adverse
event
- Accidental
encounter of
computer virus
- Cyber crime
- Natural and
technological
disaster
- Co-appearance
of technological
systems
fluctuations
leading to
black-outs
ripple effects
16
Service/product
QoS - Risk
1
3
Service ICT
Critical
infrastructure
ICT- CII
System 1
System of systems
Resilience
Critical infrastructures
System k
A
System
Architecture
Dependability
2. CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
PROTECTION: BASIC FACTS AND
EXISTING POLICIES
2.1
18
See http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/2/41/40700392.pdf
21 |
Table 2 below shows the different sectors that are covered by national
CIP plans. Here too, several commonalities can be identified, together with
some minor differences in scope as regards safety, government, chemicals,
the industrial defence base and other sectors.
Table 2. Sectoral coverage of national CIP plans
2.2
19
20
21
Press
article
at:
See Price Waterhouse Coopers, Cyber Attacks: is your Critical Infrastructure Safe?,
at: http://www.pwc.com/en_US/us/industry/utilities/assets/cyber-attacks.pdf.
22
Idem. NERC is the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a selfregulatory organisation, subject to oversight by the US Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission and governmental authorities in Canada, whose mission is to ensure
the reliability of the bulk power system in North America.
23
See, inter alia, The Project Grey Goose Report on Critical Infrastructure, February
2010, at http://dataclonelabs.com/security_talkworkshop/papers/25550091-ProjGrey-Goose-report-on-Critical-Infrastructure-Attacks-Actors-and-EmergingThreats.pdf. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is the US federal
24
been criticism that the standards identified do not go far enough, and a
more comprehensive approach to risk and security in this domain would
be needed.25
Furthermore, the transition towards smart electric grids highlights
the increasing interdependencies between physical and electronic
infrastructures. As described, by Anderson and Fuloria (2010), among
others:
the EU is strongly encouraging its 27 member states to replace
utility meters with smart meters by 2022 Yet it is not at all clear
what it means for a meter to be secure there are at least half-adozen different stakeholders with different views on security
which can refer to information, to money, or to the supply of
electricity.26
A similar rationale can be applied to cloud computing, to name one
emerging sector.27
A more controversial issue is whether the internet should be
considered as a CII. In this respect, the CEPS Task Force observed that
although societys reliance on internet services, including e-commerce,
telecommuting, communication, remote control and diagnostics is growing
and a major internet outage can have a significant economic impact, the
internet is not considered a CII.28 However, many CIIs, especially control
and communication systems are increasingly connected to the internet and
rely on public online services, which can make them vulnerable to cyber
attacks. Furthermore, with an increasing number of high-value services
available through the internet and the accelerating shift towards perimeteragency with jurisdiction over interstate electricity sales, wholesale electric rates,
hydroelectric licensing, natural gas pricing, and oil pipeline rates. FERC also
reviews and authorises liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, interstate natural
gas pipelines and non-federal hydropower projects.
See
the
Critical
Infrastructure
blog
of
16
July
2009:
http://criticalinfrastructure.blogspot.com/2009/07/cip-standards-may-not-beenough-to.html
25
26
For example, see Molnar and Schechter, Self Hosting vs. Cloud Hosting: Accounting
for the security impact of hosting in the cloud, WEIS10.
27
28
less enterprise computing models the internet and online services are
becoming increasingly critical to social stability and the economy (e.g.
email, instant messaging, weather reports and warnings, e-commerce and
online banking, outsourced IT support and services, e-government services,
e-health, cloud computing). The reliance continues to increase and
infrastructure evolves to adapt to the changing needs of society. This also
leads to an increased interplay between the domain of cyber security and
that of CIIP policy (see Figure 7 below).
A key role in CIIP is played by centralised control systems and
SCADA systems, which are widely employed to monitor and control
infrastructures remotely. However, SCADA-based systems are not always
considered to be secure, as recalled by Brunner and Suter (2008):
once-cloistered systems and networks are increasingly using
off-the-shelf products and IP-based networking equipment, and
require interconnection via the internet, which opens the door to
attackers from the outside in addition to those on the inside.29
29
From ITU-D/1/146
Rev.2-E draft
Source: Broda (2010).
2.3
Government
Responsibility for the coordination of CIP and CIIP policy rests with
government in the very first instance. At national level, departmental
ministers in charge of homeland security are mainly responsible for
coordinating the policy.
Every country that has a CIIP policy relies on some form of response team.
Depending on the country, the name can be replaced by synonymous terms
such as CERT/CC (Computer Emergency Response Team/Coordination
Centre); CSIRT (Computer Security Incident Response Team); IRT (Incident
Response Team); CIRT (Computer Incident Response Team); SERT
(Security Emergency Response Team). Initially a mere reaction force,
CERTs have extended their capacities to become a complete security
service provider, including prevention services such as alerts, security
advisories, training and security management services. The term CERT is
a protected label of Carnegie Mellon CERT, the first CERT of the world. As
a result, the new term CSIRT was established at the end of the 1990s. At
the moment both terms (CERT and CSIRT) are used synonymously, with
CSIRT being the more precise term. Figure 8, below shows the main
services offered by CERTs with National Responsibility in Europe.
30
http://www.justice.gov/criminal/cybercrime/g82004/G8_CIIP_Principles.pdf
These players do not fill every possible gap in the CIP cycle. Depending on the
country, dedicated institutions such as sectoral regulators (e.g. in energy,
telecommunications, finance) and political institutions (e.g. the US Senate)
contribute to policy actions aimed at strengthening CIP policy.
31
Source: ENISA.
A key role in the CIP landscape is played by dedicated centres that deal
with a number of steps in the CIP cycle, including warning and alerts,
information-sharing, reporting and often also awareness-raising and
education. For example, Warning, Advice and Reporting Points (WARPs)
have been established in the UK as part of the information-sharing strategy
of NISCC (the National Infrastructure Security Co-ordination Centre) to
protect the UK Critical National Infrastructure from electronic attack.
WARPs have been shown to be effective in improving information security
by stimulating better communication of alerts and warnings, improving
awareness and education, and encouraging incident reporting. WARP
members agree to work together in a community and share information to
reduce the risk of their information systems being compromised and
therefore reduce the risks to their organisation. This sharing community
could be based on a business sector, geographic location, technology
standards, risk grouping or whatever makes business sense.32
In
more
detail,
WARPs:
i)
receive
warnings/advice
from
WARPs/CSIRTs/CERTs and other sources, filter and assess them, and reissue
them to their community where appropriate (perhaps with increased priority or
added value); ii) provide email and/or telephone advice to community members
on security matters; iii) solicit and record IT-security incident reports from the
community; iv) share (possibly sanitised) incident reporting data with other
WARPs/CERTs etc., with whom a sharing agreement has been reached (formal or
32
Private sector
33
are emerging, including government-led partnerships, businessled partnerships, and joint public-private initiatives. In
Switzerland, Korea, the UK, and the US, strong links have already
been established between the private business community and
various government organisations. One of the future challenges in
many countries will be to achieve a balance between security
requirements and business efficiency imperatives. Satisfying
shareholders by maximizing company profits has often led to
minimal security measures. This is because like many political
leaders, business leaders tend to view cyber-attacks on
infrastructures as a tolerable risk.34
2.4
34
Idem., p. 535.
35
36
Phase 2.
Phase 3.
Phaase 5.
Inciden
nt Response (af
after the event). Incident ressponse compriises
the plans and activiities taken to eliminate
e
the ccause or source of
an infrrastructure ev
vent.
Phaase 6.
Figu
ure 9. Phases off the CIP event cycle
c
Sourcce: US Departmen
nt of Defense.
a.
its goal is almost uniquely operational in that it deals with actual facts
when they occur,
b.
c.
PROTECTING
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2
2.4.1
Focus:: Assessing in
nfrastructuree vulnerabilitty
IInfrastructure vulnerability
y is referred to as the ccharacteristics of an
i
installation,
sy
ystem, asset, application,
a
or its dependen
ncies that could
d cause
i to suffer a degradation or loss (inca
it
apacity to perrform its desiignated
f
function)
as a result of haviing been subjeected to a certtain level of th
hreat or
37
h
hazard.
Asssessing vuln
nerability meeans undertak
king a systtematic
e
examination
of the charaacteristics of an installattion, system, asset,
a
application,
o its depend
or
dencies to ideentify vulneraabilities. Fig
gure 11
b
below
shows the
t main dimeensions of thee assessment eexercise, from threats
t vulnerabilitty to impact to
to
o the final dettermination off the risk level. These
i
include
the ev
valuation of ex
xisting controlss; identificatio
on of the contro
ols that
a needed to reduce the rissks to an acceepted level; thee creation of the
are
t risk
l
landscape
thaat enables the understandin
ng of the glob
bal situation, and to
t
take
informed
d decisions.
F
Figure
11. Basic elements of vu
ulnerability asseessment
S
Source:
E. Adar, Task
T
Force particiipant (2010).
Sensitivity to latency;
2.5
2.5.1
As reported during meetings of the CEPS Task Force, member states are
currently grappling with several challenges in respect of CIP policy: i) the
world economic situation has led to an underinvestment in CIP; ii) there
are missing business cases, meaning that there are a limited number of
examples where threats have been realised, and this had led some
stakeholders to wonder if the investment is justified; iii) there are questions
regarding the problems to be addressed in practice-attacks, coordination,
global or regional levels, etc.; iv) there needs to be a prioritization among
sectors on the basis of clear criteria, which means that some sectors will not
be a priority focus; v) there is a lack of understanding of the amount of
investment needed to offset the risk; (vi) the long-term impact of CIP
protection, as well as the prevalence of threats to society are still to be fully
understood.
More generally, although the challenges are global, accountability
still mostly rests with national governments. In addition, there are
important cultural and legal specificities that inform responses and are
different across countries. This makes establishing a harmonised global
approach towards C(I)IP more complex.
For example, while the UK employed a multi-agency approach with
coordination between the public and private sector, Frances strategy seems
to be more focused on the role of the public sector;38 and the strategy used
by the Netherlands relies on a form of public-private coordination, but with
significant input from the private sector.
In 2008, a report by the Swiss Crisis and Risk Network (CRN) looked
at CIP policy developments in 25 countries and noted the emergence of
three main trends.
Second, this has direct implications for how CIP is organised: a move
towards the centralisation of responsibility in this policy domain can be
observed. This is mostly driven by the increasingly holistic nature of
the threats and the risks to which society is exposed, as well as by the
trend (described above) towards an all-hazards approach to CIP
policy. Recent examples can be observed in Canada, Sweden and the
UK.
Third, there is continued or even growing attention to the cyberdimension of the issue, linked to the growing awareness that globally
38
2.5.2
39
First, the Commission does not have the legal basis to enact binding
law of the nature contained in the Communication.
Third, developing a legal basis would have taken too much time, as it
must go though the European Council etc. There was/is a need for
action now.
exact scope and goals of this initiative still need to be determined. Overall,
the goal of the EP3R is to improve information-sharing between the public
and private sectors. Below, in Section 4 of this report, we provide some
suggestions as to how this can be done in a fruitful way.
40
41
users and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Two types of involvement
for the European Union (operating and facilitating) in the three parts of the
information-sharing process (information gathering, processing and
dissemination) were examined under three different perspectives
(technical/organisational, political and social/cultural).
The study concluded that the most effective level of involvement for
the European Union in the establishment and operation of an informationsharing system for its home-users and SMEs would be that of a facilitator; a
moderator of discussion and a keeper of good practice. The report
concludes with proposals for the next steps to be taken and a proof of
concept scenario.
2.5.3
EU policy initiatives have so far focused on the following phases of the CIP
policy cycle:
Preparedness & prevention. The EP3R and the Pan-European Forum for
Member States, together with initiatives on the Baseline Capabilities
of National/Gov CERTs fall into this first phase of the CIP cycle.
For an overview of current projects being funded, see Marino and Skordas
(2010), EU research on critical infrastructure protection - CIP, European CIIP
Newsletter, April/May 2009, Volume 5, Number 1.
42
The role of critical information infrastructure and its relevance for CIP
policy is on the increase, leading also to more interplay between cybersecurity and CIP policy. This also means that global problems still rely
on very local competences and remedies: such a structural bias between
attack and defence is what makes CIs globally interdependent
nowadays.
The key phases of the CIP event cycle are i) analysis and assessment; ii)
remediation; and iii) indications and warnings, before the adverse event
occurs. In addition, they include: iv) mitigation; v) incident response;
and vi) reconstitution, after the event has occurred. It is important,
however, to realize that real life events seldom come as isolated events;
accordingly, referring to successions of events and, more generally, to
the crisis life-cycle would be more appropriate.
3.1
An efficiency-security trade-off
43
See, i.a., Moore, T., R. Clayton, and R. Anderson, The Economics of Online Crime,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 23, N. 3, summer 2009, pp. 320. See also
http://infosecon.net/workshop/bibliography.php
for
a
comprehensive
bibliography on information security.
44
49 |
objective at the lowest possible cost. One example in this respect is publicprivate partnerships to build infrastructure such as motorways: in many
European countries, from Hungary to Portugal, the absence of private
incentives to use quality materials to build the road infrastructure has led
the asset to perish very quickly, because the revenues associated with the
execution of contractual obligations were not made dependent on any
measure of reliability and sustainability over time.45 Likewise, the recent
oil spill case off the coasts of Louisiana is a self-evident example of the
absence of a plan B when developing an infrastructure: the difficulty of
improvising a recovery plan has caused enormous damage to the
ecosystem. The trade-off between productive efficiency and security is all
the more evident as the boundaries between CIP and CIIP have become
increasingly blurred. As CIP expert Joe Weiss recently declared:
When I was involved in advanced controls and
instrumentation, we viewed adding intelligence to the critical
infrastructure as being a single-edge sword nothing but
productive improvements could accrue. We never realized that for
all the positives there's a negative cyber. It's a double-edged
sword and you have to address that. If you don't, the
consequences can be devastating. If you do, the benefits can be
phenomenally valuable. It is a trade-off between productivity and
security.46
Figure 13, below shows the dimension of the trade-off, with increased
efficiency often leading to just-in-time production chains, reduced
maintenance efforts, stock capacities and staff, and most importantly a
reduction in redundancies that are costly to preserve, but often also create
potential alternatives in case of a major disruption to an infrastructure.
See i.a. Renda, A. and L. Schrefler (2006), Public-Private Partnerships. Models and
Trends in the European Union. Study requested by the European Parliaments
Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection.
45
See Interview with CNET, 10 May 2010, at http://news.cnet.com/8301-27080_320004505-245.html?tag=mncol;title (visited on November 5, 2010). Of course, the
efficiency-resilience trade-off is not always a real dilemma. For instance, replacing
rotary telephone switches with digital switches has significantly increased the
robustness of the telephone network. Furthermore, migration from digital PSTN
switching to Carrier VoIP has also increased, or at least not negatively affected, the
robustness of the network. In any event, it is important to stress that the use of IT
needs to be informed by the resilience requirements for the given service.
46
PROTECTING
G CRITICAL INFRAS
STRUCTURE IN THE
E EU | 51
S
Source:
T. Hausch
hild, CEPS Task Force.
F
An efficiiency-privacy trade-off
Another impo
A
ortant dynamicc that must bee addressed by
y public policy
y when
47
l
looking
at CIP
P is the one between
b
securiity and privaccy. Such an issue
o
often
pitting privacy agaiin security and
a
vice verssa is a geenerally
r
recognised
on
ne, especially when it comees to phone-taapping, deep--packet
i
inspection
on the internet and
a
the keeping of personaal data from in
nternet
s
searches.
The detaails of this trade-off must however
h
be claarified and qu
ualified.
O the one haand, privacy caan easily be seeen as an elem
On
ment of security
y, since
t ensure prrivacy and a trusted env
to
vironment sttrong security
y is a
r
requirement
whereas security
s
can be interpretted as referrring to
a
authentication
n, authorizatio
on, access con
ntrol, data pro
otection, encryption,
e
etc.,
on the oth
her hand, natiional security or law enforceement interestts often
See, i.a. the recent
r
publicatiions by the EU
U agency ENISA
A on privacy in
n the IT
eenvironment, available at http://www.en
h
nisa.europa.eu/
/publications/p
positionp
papers.
4
47
require the use of monitoring and/or data collection technology that may
negatively affect individual privacy. The network security mechanisms
such as firewalls or intrusion detection devices as well as SPAM filters are
in a grey area, since they provide security and convenience to the user at
the cost of monitoring high-level traffic; at the same time, it is also true that
this monitoring does not result in permanent/long-term data storage and
only portions of the network traffic that are used in routing the packets are
inspected (as opposed to the human-readable contents).
Similarly, some commentators have pointed to a growing tension
between security and ease of use, which seems to be tipping in favour of
the latter as a driver of enhanced demand by increasingly sophisticated
customers. For example, Coucher (2010) recently wrote that:
There are good commercial and operational reasons for the new or
emerging networks and infrastructures such as Cloud
Computing; satellite-based networks with broad and narrowcast
services; merged mobile, internet and corporate networks. User
demands for instant availability and access to all data sources and
services are forcing a simplified and common approach so-called
convergence The networks and database systems are designed
to push data out as quickly and in as common a form as possible,
rather than questioning the rights to access. Passwords are hidden,
hard-coded, minimised or ignored in the rush to gain speedy
access. So the balance of security and access is tipping towards
ease of use, simplifying and minimising the overheads that would
otherwise maintain separation and security, so creating a huge
looming future vulnerability.
For instance, the introduction of a strong 2-factor single sign on schemes makes it
unnecessary for the user to remember multiple complex passwords.
48
Principal-agent problems
49
A black swan is a highly improbable and hard to predict event, which may
either have devastating or major beneficial consequences. The attacks of the twin
towers of the World Trade Centre on 9/11/2001 was a so-called black swan. The
rise of the internet is a more positive black swan. One could almost theorize that
major changes in our world came from black swans.
50
these phenomena. Security experts know well that more damages will
result from unanticipated events: statistics are inefficient to predict them,
and accordingly black swans call for imagination, creativity, and thinking
the unthinkable type of foresight.
In the law and economics literature, the existence of these externalities may
require an examination of legal mechanisms, such as liability, for cases of
negligence in the adoption of security measures.53 However, the definition
of an optimal liability system based on negligence presupposes that
optimal standards are identifiable with reasonable certainty, which is
problematic due to the problem of incomplete information but also due to
See Varian, H. R. (2004), System Reliability and Free Riding, in Economics of
Information Security, Kluwer.
51
See, i.a. Critical Information Infrastructure Protection and the Law: An Overview of
Key Issues, National Academy of Sciences, at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog/
10685.html.
52
For a seminal contribution on this issue, see Guido Calabresi, The Costs of
Accidents: A Legal and Economic Analysis, New Haven: Yale University Press (1970).
See also John Prather Brown, Toward an Economic Theory of Liability, 2 Journal of
Legal Studies (1973) pp.323-350; Steven Shavell, Economic Analysis of Accident Law,
Cambridge (MA): Harvard University Press (1987); and Landes, W.M. and R. A.
Posner, The Economic Structure of Tort Law, Cambridge (MA): Harvard University
Press (1987).
53
54
The absence of a mature market is also justified by the fact that the
insurance industry inevitably faces a number of problems when assessing
CIP-related risks and the consequent premium level. Furthermore, with
insufficient information about the causes, nature and features of current
threats, insurance companies would inevitably expose themselves to moral
hazard and adverse selection, which would lead to inefficient contracts
and potential losses on their side.55 The current reaction in the industry
seems to be the introduction of fairly low maximum coverage, which
provides very partial compensation if the event occurs.56
Rational ignorance
55
56
See presentation by Simon Milner of Lloyds at the CEPS Task Force 5th meeting.
57
In addition, issues related to corporate secrecy and national interest do not allow
access to more information in many circumstances.
58
3.2
The several imperfections existing in the CIP market which may exhibit
peculiarities also on a sectoral basis call for action to improve the
availability of information on the basis of which risk can be classified,
analysed and mitigated. This, in turn, might also help the development of a
(more) mature insurance market for the different risks connected to the
operation of a critical infrastructure, something that today as illustrated in
the previous section is still missing.
More specifically, the CEPS Task Force has discussed, with the help
of experts, the problem of how to i) define an ontology of risk; ii) establish
appropriate risk metrics, from an operational, organisational and technical
perspective; and iii) how to define vulnerability parameters and a
framework for risk management.
See: http://opim.wharton.upenn.edu/risk/library/C2009_HK,RJM,EMK.pdf
August 2009.
59
60
Idem.
Risk assessment becomes almost prohibitive in cases of very low probability. See,
i.a. Taleb, N. N. (2007), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, New
York, Random House, 2007, 366 pages. In some circumstances, the risk calculation
is not feasible, since near zero likelihood times near infinite cost do not fulfil the
statistical requirements to be applied. And see supra, note 52 and associated text.
61
The main results of the debate in the CEPS Task Force imply two
important recommendations. First, it is necessary to increase
standardization in the taxonomy of risks as well as in the definition of
available metrics. Secondly, the definition of a global framework for risk
management is needed.
As a preliminary remark, as stated by one of the Task Force
participants, the minimal requirements that a methodology for risk
assessment of CI should meet are as follows:62
Risk management
62
3.2.1
Risk metrics
ISO/IEC 27000 and NIST 800-53. These standards are used in many
CIIs for security metrics taxonomy.65 They are focused on
management of IT security and general IT technologies, and can
provide sufficient solutions for the Enterprise ICT domain.
However, they provide only partial coverage for the Sector-Specific
domains that need to be addressed within the broader CIP policy.
63
64
ISO 27004:2009 was intended to define metrics associated with ISO 27000
standards.
65
(b)
Source: Adar, E. presentation at the CEPS Task Force, CEPS. Brussels, based on (a) I3P
Research Report No. 1. (2005) - Process Control System Security Metrics. (b) I3P
Report No. 12, (2007) - Security Metrics Tools Final Report.
3.2.2
3.3
One of the key roles of the public sector in CIP is the analysis of the
preparedness of specific sectors. Debate in the CEPS Task Force revealed
that different sectors may exhibit different needs when it comes to the
adoption of prevention and remediation methods, as well as for risk
identification, assessment and management purposes. One example of
assessment of the different levels of preparedness in different CIP domains
is offered by a recent Government Accountability Report in the US, as
shown in Figure 18 below.
Figure 18. Comprehensiveness of sector-specific plans in the US
3.3.1
Financial services
In the financial services sector, the main problems identified are intimately
linked with the protection of the IT infrastructure. For example, global
companies such as Swift rely on dedicated networks, resilience plans and
service-level agreements (SLAs) in order to ensure business continuity in
all parts of the globe.
A major research project termed PARSIFAL (Protection and Trust in
Financial Infrastructures) has reached eight policy recommendations,
which are summarized below, in Table 5.
3.3.2
Energy
In the energy field, the need to reduce costs and ensure security of supply
may lead to conflicting public policy goals, and insufficient incentives on
the side of private actors to invest in enhanced infrastructure resilience and
robustness. Security of supply, climate and environmental concerns and the
need to secure the affordability of energy for residential and business
customers from what is termed the energy trilemma (see Figure 20,
below).
66
Security of resources/raw-materials.
Zafiriou (2010) also explained the two different possible reasons for
electricity supply disruptions:
3.3.3
67
servers, leaving end users terminals as little more than dumb terminals.
This solution is seen as a cost-effective, but not always resilient solution. If
we accept that resilience design principles include concepts such as
diversity, redundancy, decentralisation, transparency, collaboration,
flexibility, openness and others, cloud computing may appear too
centralised to match all the requirements.68 On the other hand, data centre
security and mirroring of data centres may also make many cloud
applications more resilient, especially compared to current solutions
adopted by SMEs that lack specific skills and expertise. All in all, cloud
computing seems to exhibit a different risk profile, which calls for the need
to properly set up IDM and access management. These issues will have to
be carefully taken into account and addressed before cloud computing
becomes the dominant means of using IT resources.
68
72 |
4.1
Intervening in the field of CIP requires selecting above all the mode of
intervention that proves most appropriate for the specifics of the problem
at hand. The literature on regulatory reform and responsive regulation can
help find the right way to intervene in this complex policy domain. In
particular, social sciences have gone a long way towards providing
guidance on the what, why and how of public policy intervention. For
example, Ubacht (2010) refers to a scheme initially developed by Oftel, the
UK telecommunications regulator, and advocates for the development of a
co-regulatory scheme in the field of CIP.
Table 5. Options for governance
74 | SELECTED REFERENCES
The degree of legal certainty that a given policy option would ensure
for public and most importantly private players.
Information
Sharing
Research and
development
Education &
Training
Standards, Policy,
Best Practices
Development
Critical Infrastructure
Partnerships
First, there is a strong need for an overall vision of what CIP should
achieve both from an ex ante and ex post perspective (see above, Section 2.2),
together with a strategy and strong political commitment to achieve the
desired results. Such a vision should be disseminated among all
stakeholders and CI owners/operators in order to promote awareness of
the need for a CIP policy. Vision, strategy and awareness can be described
as the essential foundations of any effective CIP policy.
Second, the main pillars that must be built on the foundations
described above include:
both
76 | SELECTED REFERENCES
Sourcing efforts, to get the right people into the right jobs,
including identification, tagging, placement, gap analysis,
career development, and skills assessment.
Who should
share
Intelligence
agencies
Law
enforcement
agencies
CI owners/
operators
Coordination
partnerships (at
all levels)
When to share
Pre-event
Advisories
Warnings
During and after
the event
Remediation
steps
Coordination of
resources
Protecting
information
Use of PKI
(public key
infrastructure)
Strong policies
(with penalties
for misuse)
Must protect
both
private/proprie
tary and
government
information
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4.1.1
Compared with other policy domains, in CIP policy trust plays a very
prominent role. Given the limited availability of information and the
consequent need for information-sharing between governments, as well as
between public and private players, building trust becomes the only
possible way to develop a meaningful and coordinated CIP policy.
However, several problems can emerge with respect to the objective
of building reasonably long-term trust.
It needs to be noted however, that there are different trust models depending on
the goals of the information-sharing activity for example, sharing network sensor
data related to a specific attack during a national incident has an entirely different
trust model than sharing threat or vulnerability trend data related to the attacks
seen over the past six months. The PPP should therefore be flexible enough to
comprehend these various models.
69
70
In all this, trust stands as a key concept. The CEPS Task Force has
debated extensively the conditions for trust, from confidence to challenges,
and reached the conclusion that trust needs specific rules, a key definition
of roles and incentives, and the protection of information. In particular, in
order to build trust there should be:
71
80 | SELECTED REFERENCES
4.2
There was agreement among Task Force participants that the EU can play a
leading role in facilitating global cooperation. In particular, the EP3R
presents a key opportunity for Europe to engage local and global industry
players in guiding and reviewing important aspects of emerging cyber
policy. This is likely to result in the application of effective policy levers,
ensuring that emerging technologies are well addressed, and ensuring
alignment with other similar initiatives outside the EU. In this respect,
Europe can also act as a model for the rest of the world.
However, several critical factors stand on the way of the launch of a
successful EP3R. In particular, the size of the expected PPP, the need to
accommodate several diverging interests at the same table, the sectoral
specificities that would have to be merged into a single platform, and the
difficulty of allocating responsibility in what is still chiefly a national
prerogative may prove very difficult issues to address, and could
potentially undermine the success of this very welcome initiative. Below,
we discuss the main obstacles to the development of a comprehensive and
effective CIP policy in the EU, while Section 4.2.2 contains suggestions on
how to mainstream CIP objectives into the broader context of EU policymaking.
To be sure, the EP3R will have to be complemented by actions at the
policy level. Establishing a level playing field among Europes member
states is crucial to defining a consistent and effective policy for CIIP.
However, at this point individual member state priorities on CIP and CIIP
differ widely and a careful approach to defining the right progressive goals
and providing incentives to national governments is required to bridge the
gap.
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4.2.1
84 | SELECTED REFERENCES
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at
establish the basis for a European modelling and simulation einfrastructure based upon open standards to foster and support research
into all aspects of critical infrastructure with a specific focus on its
protection. Developing modelling and simulation tools that enable a better
understanding of the interdependency of European critical infrastructures
is a prerequisite for an adequate solution for Critical Infrastructure
Protection (CIP) strategies.
The DIESIS project was funded by the European Union 7th
Framework Programme for Research, and led to important technical and
non-technical results, including i) an ICT architecture and a work flow for
member states and administrations in CIP; ii) an interoperability
middleware for CI simulators; iii) a communication middleware for
distributed federated simulation via the internet; iv) an ontology for CI in
railway transport, electrical power transmission, and telecommunication;
v) a working demonstrator, a distributed federated simulation coupling
four simulators (SINCAL, NS2, Open Track, Aqua).73 In addition, the
project included a study of the legal and economic aspects of carrying out
simulation work and the potential business model for the simulation centre
European Infrastructures Simulation and Analysis Centre (EISAC). The
results of DIESIS are a very good starting point for future work in this
direction.
4.2.2
See Stephan Pickl, presentation at the CEPS Task Force, 4th meeting, CEPS,
Brussels.
73
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Trust is a key dimension in any CIP policy, but needs time, clear rules,
sector-specific arrangements and a limited size of the PPP: this may
create problems in international and EU cooperation efforts.
The EU must empower a single agency to deal with CIP and CIIP issues
adopting an all-hazards approach; and launching an EU number for
emergency management and early warning, located in the same
agency.
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GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Alerts & Warnings. Information about NIS threats, disseminated by all
possible means. Usually alerts & warnings must be accompanied by
recommended actions the user should take to mitigate a threat arising
on the internet.
CERT (Computer Emergency Response Team). An organisation that
studies computer and network security in order to provide incident
response services to victims of attacks, to publish alerts concerning
vulnerabilities and threats and to offer other information to help
improve computer and network security.
CSIRT (Computer Security and Incident Response Team). Another term
for CERT.
Culture of security. Awareness about NIS-related matters and the
corresponding behaviour of internet users, defined by the OECD
guidelines Towards a culture of Security.
EISAS (European Information Sharing and Alert System). A placeholder
for a yet-to-be determined role that the European Union can take in
the area of sharing NIS information with citizens and SMEs.
Describes a concept, not necessarily a physical system.
ENISA (European Network and Information Security Agency) is an
agency of the European Union created in 2004 by EU Regulation No
460/2004 and fully operational since 1st September 2005. The
objective of ENISA is to improve network and information security in
the European Union.
Hacker. A person who studies and explores software and systems with the
aim of finding the weaknesses and vulnerabilities that allow him/her
to break into remote computers.
Home-users. In the context of this study, a generic group of people who
use the internet at home, as a tool, without deep knowledge about
how it works.
NIS. Abbreviation for Network and Information Security.
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96 | GLOSSARY OF TERMS
J.-Yves Gresser, Draft Ontology Of Financial Risks & Dependencies Within &
Outside The Financial Sector, Vol. 2, D2.1 Parsifal Projects, http://www.parsifalproject.eu/images/PublicDeliverables/parsifal%20d2.1%20draft%20ontology%20o
f%20financial%20risks%20and%20dependencies%20within%20and%20outside%20
the%20financial%20sector.pdf
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Bernhard Hmmerli
President, Swiss Informatics Society
[email protected]; [email protected]
RAPPORTEUR:
Andrea Renda
Senior Research Fellow, CEPS
[email protected]