MA2216/ST2131 Probability Notes 5 Distribution of A Function of A Random Variable and Miscellaneous Remarks
MA2216/ST2131 Probability Notes 5 Distribution of A Function of A Random Variable and Miscellaneous Remarks
Notes 5
Distribution of a Function of a Random Variable
and
Miscellaneous Remarks
1. Change-of-Variable.
To begin with, let us recall an ane transformation of a normal r.v.
mentioned in 8.8 of Lecture Notes 4.
To be precise, let X N (, 2 ). Put
Y = aX + b.
Then, it has been pointed out in 8.8 of Notes 4 that, for a = 0,
Y N (a + b, a2 2 ).
Equivalently, for y IR, the p.d.f. of Y is given by
(yab)2
1
fY (y) =
e 2(a)2 .
2
2(a)
Derivation of (1.1).
(1.1)
Recall that
(x)2
1
e 22 .
fX (x) =
2 2
a
a
yb
a
yb
)2
(
a
1
1
e 22
=
a
2 2
(yab)2
1
=
e 2(a)2 .
2(a)2
(
)2
a
1
1
fY (y) =
e 22
a
2 2
(yab)2
1
=
e 2(a)2 ,
2(a)2
X
X
=
,
then Z is a standard normal r.v., i.e., Z N (0, 1). This is perhaps the
most frequently used transformation.
Let Z N (0, 1). What are the d.f. and p.d.f. of Y , where
= IP ( y Z y) =
2
y
2
2
=
ez /2 dz,
2 0
hence
fY (y) =
ez
/2
dz,
dFY (y)
2
1 y/2
y 1/2 ey/2
=
e
=
dy
2 2 y
2
1
( 12 ) 2 1 1 1 y
=
y2 e 2 .
( 12 )
We conclude that
0,
FY (y) =
for y 0,
y
eu
/2
0,
and
fY (y) =
for y 0,
1
1 1
,
2 2
)
.
(1.2)
i , .
(1.3)
Xi
i=1
i=1
Zi2 , where Z1 , Z2 , . . . , Zn is
i=0
Zi2 .
i=0
2
The distribution of X is called the chi-square
( n 1 )(n ) distribution of n
degrees of freedom, which is the same as 2 , 2 . That is,
(
)
n 1
2
,
n
.
(1.4)
2 2
2
dFY (y)
1
1
= e(ln y) /2 .
dy
2 y
To be precise,
0,
fY (y) =
1
y 2
for y 0,
e(ln y)
/2
, for y > 0.
1 1
dFY (y)
= y n 1 fX (y 1/n ).
dy
n
dFY (y)
= ey .
dy
6. Example.
0,
for x ,
{ (
) }
FX (x) = 1 exp x
, for x > .
(Note that this distribution is called a Weibull distribution with parameters , > 0, and > 0. Such a distribution is widely used in
engineering practice due to its versatility. Dierentiating FX yields
0,
for x ,
{ (
(
)1
) }
x
fX (x) = x
exp
, for x > ,
)
. Determine the distribution of Y .
{
}
= IP X y 1/ +
= 1 ey ,
which is the c.d.f. of an exponential distribution with parameter = 1.
Thus,
Y Exp(1).
FY (y) = IP (Y y) = IP (g(X) y)
= IP (X g 1 (y)) (assuming g is increasing)
= FX (g 1 (y)).
To nd fY (y), we dierentiate FY (y) w.r.t. y, and get
d
FX (g 1 (y))
dy
d
d 1
=
FX (x)|x=g1 (y)
g (y)
dx
dy
d 1
= fX [g 1 (y)]
g (y).
dy
fY (y) =
Thus,
]
d [
1 FX (g 1 (y))
dy
d
d 1
= FX (x)|x=g1 (y)
g (y)
dx
dy
[
]
d 1
1
= fX [g (y)] g (y)
dy
d 1
1
= fX [g (y)] g (y) .
dy
fY (y) =
d 1
(y)] g (y)
dy
yb
(
)2
a
1
1
e 22 | |
=
a
2 2
[y(a+b)]2
1
e 2a2 2
=
2a2 2
(yab)2
1
=
e 2(a)2 .
2(a)2
2 nn+(1/2) en
n! en
n nn+(1/2)
2.
(2.1)
2. It has been shown that an exponential distribution possesses the socalled memorylessness property. Indeed, it is the unique distribution
(on IR+ ) possessing this property.
Proof. To see this, suppose X is a non-negative real-valued r.v. which
admits the memorylessness property and let
F (x) = IP {X > x}.
Then, the memorylessness yields
F (s + t) = F (s) F (t).
In other words, F () satises the functional equation
g(s + t) = g(s) g(t).
Obviously,
( )
(
)
( )2
2
1
1
1
g
=g
+
=g
,
n
n n
n
( )m
(m)
1
and repeating this yields g
=g
.
n
n
Similarly,
(
g(1) = g
1
1
+ +
n
n
9
( )n
1
=g
,
n
( )
1
g
= g(1)1/n .
n
or
(m)
g(x) = g(1)x .
In turn, we conclude that for x > 0,
g(x) = ex ,
where = ln g(1).
1 x
e
.
2
1
e|x| ,
2
for x IR.
Remark. The above distribution is said to have a Laplacian distribution with parameter . It is sometimes called the double exponential
distribution with parameter .
4. Suppose that if you are s minutes early for an appointment, then you
incur a cost cs, and if you are s minutes late, then you incur a cost
ks. Suppose the travelling time from where you are to the location
of your appointment is a continuous random variable having p.d.f. f .
Determine the time at which you should depart if you want to minimize
your expected cost.
Sol. Let X be your travel time. If you leave t minutes before your
appointment, then the cost, call it Ct (X), is given by
{
c(t X), if X t,
Ct (X) =
k(X t), if X > t.
Therefore,
E [Ct (X)] =
Ct (x) f (x) dx
c(t x) f (x) dx +
k(x t) f (x) dx
0
t
t
t
= ct
f (x) dx c
x f (x) dx + k
x f (x) dx
0
0
t
kt
f (x) dx
t
t
= ct F (t) c
x f (x) dx + k
x f (x) dx
=
kt [1 F (t)].
The value of t which minimizes E [Ct (X)] is obtained by calculus. Differentiation yields
dE
E [Ct (X)]
= c F (t) + ct f (t) c tf (t) kt f (t) k [1 F (t)] + kt f (t)
dt
= (k + c) F (t) k.
Equating to 0, the minimal expected cost is obtained when you leave t
minutes before your appointment, where t satises
F (t ) =
11
k
,
k+c
k
that is, t = F 1 ( k+c
) if F 1 exists.
E [Lp (U )] =
Lp (u) fU (u) du
Lp (u) 1 du
=
0
(1 u) du +
u du
p
1
+ p(1 p).
2
(ii) Probability that the passenger waits more than 10 minutes for a bus
when and only when he arrives (a) between 7:007:05 or (b) 7:15
7:20. And so the desired probability is
IP (0 < X < 5) + IP (15 < X < 20) =
13
20 15
1
5
+
= .
30
30
3