14.

452 Economic Growth: Lecture 8, Neoclassical

Endogenous Growth
Daron Acemoglu
MIT

November 19, 2013.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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First-Generation Models of Endogenous Growth

Models so far: no sustained long-run growth; relatively little to say
about sources of technology dierences.
Models in which technology evolves as a result of rmsand workers
decisions are most attractive in this regard.
But sustained economic growth is possible in the neoclassical model
as well:
AK model before: relaxed Assumption 2 and prevented diminishing
returns to capital.
Capital accumulation could act as the engine of sustained economic
growth.

Neoclassical version of the AK model:

Very tractable and applications in many areas.
Shortcoming: capital is essentially the only factor of production,
asymptotically share of income accruing to it tends to 1.

Two-sector endogenous growth models behave very similarly to the

baseline AK model, but avoid this.
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November 19, 2013.

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Demographics, Preferences and Technology I

Focus on balanced economic growth, i.e. consistent with the Kaldor
facts.
Thus CRRA preferences as in the canonical neoclassical growth model.
Economy admits an innitely-lived representative household,
household size growing at the exponential rate n.
Preferences
U=

exp (

"

#
c (t )1 1
n) t )
dt.
1

(1)

Labor is supplied inelastically.

Flow budget constraint,
a (t ) = (r (t )
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

n )a (t ) + w (t )

Economic Growth Lecture 8

c (t ) ,
November 19, 2013.

(2)
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Demographics, Preferences and Technology II

No-Ponzi game constraint:
lim

t !

a(t ) exp

Z t

[r (s )

n ] ds

0.

(3)

Euler equation:
c (t )
1
= (r (t )
c (t )

).

(4)

Transversality condition,
lim

t !

a(t ) exp

Z t

[r (s )

n ] ds

= 0.

(5)

Problem is concave, solution to these necessary conditions is in fact

an optimal plan.
Final good sector similar to before, but Assumptions 1 and 2 are not
satised.
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Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Demographics, Preferences and Technology III

More specically,
Y (t ) = AK (t ) ,
with A > 0.
Does not depend on labor, thus w (t ) in (2) will be equal to zero.
Dening k (t )

K (t ) /L (t ) as the capital-labor ratio,

y (t )

Y (t )
L (t )
= Ak (t ) .

(6)

Notice output is only a function of capital, and there are no

diminishing returns
But introducing diminishing returns to capital does not aect the
main results in this section.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Demographics, Preferences and Technology IV

More important assumption is that the Inada conditions embedded in

Assumption 2 are no longer satised,
lim f 0 (k ) = A > 0.

k !

Conditions for prot-maximization are similar to before, and require

R (t ) = r (t ) + .
From (6) the marginal product of capital is A, thus R (t ) = A for all
t,
r (t ) = r = A , for all t.
(7)

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Equilibrium I
A competitive equilibrium of this economy consists of paths
[c (t ) , k (t ) , w (t ) , R (t )]t=0 , such that the representative household
maximizes (1) subject to (2) and (3) given initial capital-labor ratio
k (0) and [w (t ) , r (t )]t=0 such that w (t ) = 0 for all t, and r (t ) is
given by (7).
Note that a (t ) = k (t ).
Using the fact that r = A and w = 0, equations (2), (4), and (5)
imply
k (t ) = (A n )k (t ) c (t )
(8)
c (t )
1
= (A
c (t )

),

lim k (t ) exp ( (A

n )t ) = 0.

t !
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

(9)

November 19, 2013.

(10)

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Equilibrium II
The important result immediately follows from (9).
Since the right-hand side is constant, there must be a constant rate of
consumption growth (as long as A > 0).
Growth of consumption is independent of the level of capital stock per
person, k (t ).
No transitional dynamics in this model.

To develop, integrate (9) starting from some c (0), to be determined

from the lifetime budget constraint,
c (t ) = c (0) exp

1
(A

)t .

(11)

Need to ensure that the transversality condition is satised and ensure

positive growth (A > 0). Impose:
A > + > (1
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

) (A

Economic Growth Lecture 8

) + n + .
November 19, 2013.

(12)
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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization I
No transitional dynamics: growth rates of consumption, capital and
output are constant and given in (9).
Substitute for c (t ) from equation (11) into equation (8),
k (t ) = (A

n )k (t )

c (0) exp

1
(A

)t ,

(13)

First-order, non-autonomous linear dierential equation in k (t ).

Recall that if
z (t ) = az (t ) + b (t ) ,
then, the solution is
z (t ) = z0 exp (at ) + exp (at )

Z t

exp ( as ) b (s )ds,

for some constant z0 chosen to satisfy the boundary conditions.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization II
Therefore, equation (13) solves for:
(
exp((A n ) t ) + (A )( 1) 1 +
k (t ) =
c (0) exp 1 (A )t

(14)
where is a constant to be determined.
Assumption (12) ensures that

(A

)(

1)

n > 0.

Substitute from (14) into the transversality condition, (10),

0 =

lim [ + (A

t !

c (0) exp

)(
A

)(

1)

1)

+
1

n
1

n t ].

Since (A )( 1) 1 + 1 n > 0, the second term in this

expression converges to zero as t ! .
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization III

But the rst term is a constant.
Thus the transversality condition can only be satised if = 0.
Therefore we have from (14) that:
k (t ) =

(A

)(

1)
1

c (0) exp

= k (0) exp

(A

(A

(15)

)t
)t ,

Second line follows from the fact that the boundary condition has to
hold for capital at t = 0. T
Hence capital and output grow at the same rate as consumption.
This also pins down the initial level of consumption as
c (0) = (A
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

)(

1)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

n k (0) .
November 19, 2013.

(16)
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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization IV
Growth is not only sustained, but also endogenous in the sense of
being aected by underlying parameters.
E.g., an increase in , will reduce the growth rate.

Saving rate=total investment (increase in capital plus replacement

investment) divided by output:
s

=
=
=

K (t ) + K (t )
Y (t )
k (t ) /k (t ) + n +
A
A + n + ( 1)
,
A

Last equality exploited k (t ) /k (t ) = (A

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

(17)

)/.
November 19, 2013.

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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization V
Saving rate, constant and exogenous in the basic Solow model, is
again constant.
But is now a function of parameters, also those that determine the
equilibrium growth rate of the economy.
Proposition Consider the above-described AK economy, with a
representative household with preferences given by (1), and
the production technology given by (6). Suppose that
condition (12) holds. Then, there exists a unique equilibrium
path in which consumption, capital and output all grow at
the same rate g
(A )/ > 0 starting from any
initial positive capital stock per worker k (0), and the saving
rate is endogenously determined by (17).

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Equilibrium Characterization

Equilibrium Characterization VI

Since all markets are competitive, there is a representative household,

and there are no externalities, the competitive equilibrium will be
Pareto optimal.
Can be proved either using First Welfare Theorem type reasoning, or
by directly constructing the optimal growth solution.
Proposition Consider the above-described AK economy, with a
representative household with preferences given by (1), and
the production technology given by (6). Suppose that
condition (12) holds. Then, the unique competitive
equilibrium is Pareto optimal.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Role of Policy

The Role of Policy I

Suppose there is an eective tax rate of on the rate of return from
capital income, so budget constraint becomes:
a (t ) = ((1

n )a (t ) + w (t )

) r (t )

c (t ) .

(18)

Repeating the analysis above this will adversely aect the growth rate
of the economy, now:
g=

(1

) (A

(1

(19)

Moreover, saving rate will now be

s=

(1

) A

+ n
A

which is a decreasing function of if A

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

(20)

> 0.
November 19, 2013.

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The Role of Policy

The Role of Policy II

In contrast to Solow, constants saving rate responds endogenously to
policy.
Since saving rate is constant, dierences in policies will lead to
permanent dierences in the rate of capital accumulation.
In the baseline neoclassical growth model even large dierences in
distortions could only have limited eects on dierences in income per
capita.
Here even small dierences in can have very large eects.

Consider two economies, with tax rates on capital income and

0 > , and exactly the same otherwise.
For any 0 > ,

Y ( 0 , t )
= 0,
t ! Y ( , t )
lim

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Role of Policy

The Role of Policy III

Why then focus on standard neoclassical if AK model can generate

arbitrarily large dierences?
1

AK model, with no diminishing returns and the share of capital in

national income asymptoting to 1, is not a good approximation to
reality.
Relative stability of the world income distribution in the post-war era
makes it more attractive to focus on models in which there is a
stationary world income distribution.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model I

Model before creates another factor of production that accumulates
linearly, so equilibrium is again equivalent to the one-sector AK
economy.
Thus, in some deep sense, the economies of both sections are
one-sector models.
Also, potentially blur key underlying characteristic driving growth.
What is important is not that production technology is AK , but that
the accumulation technology is linear.
Preference and demographics are the same as in the model of the
previous section, (1)-(5) apply as before
No population growth, i.e., n = 0, and L is supplied inelastically.
Rather than a single good used for consumption and investment, now
two sectors.
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Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model II

Sector 1 produces consumption goods with the following technology
C (t ) = B (KC (t )) LC (t )1

(21)

Cobb-Douglas assumption here is quite important in ensuring that the

share of capital in national income is constant
Capital accumulation equation:
K (t ) = I (t )

K (t ) ,

I (t ) denotes investment. Investment goods are produced with a

dierent technology,
I (t ) = AKI (t ) .
(22)
Extreme version of an assumption often made in two-sector models:
investment-good sector is more capital-intensive than the
consumption-good sector.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model III

Market clearing implies:
KC (t ) + KI (t )
LC ( t )

K (t ),
L,

An equilibrium is dened similarly, but also features an allocation

decision of capital between the two sectors.
Also, there will be a relative price between the two sectors which will
adjust endogenously.
Both market clearing conditions will hold as equalities, so letting (t )
denote the share of capital used in the investment sector
KC (t ) = (1

(t )) K (t ) and KI (t ) = (t ) K (t ).

From prot maximization, the rate of return to capital has to be the

same when it is employed in the two sectors.
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model IV

Let the price of the investment good be denoted by pI (t ) and that of
the consumption good by pC (t ), then
pI (t ) A = pC (t ) B

(1

L
(t )) K (t )

(23)

Dene a steady-state (a balanced growth path) as an equilibrium path

in which (t ) is constant and equal to some 2 [0, 1].
Moreover, choose the consumption good as the numeraire, so that
pC (t ) = 1 for all t.
Then dierentiating (23) implies that at the steady state:
p I (t )
=
pI ( t )

(1

) gK ,

(24)

gK is the steady-state (BGP) growth rate of capital.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model V

Euler equation (4) still holds, but interest rate has to be for
consumption-denominated loans, rC (t ).
I.e., the interest rate that measures how many units of consumption
good an individual will receive tomorrow by giving up one unit of
consumption today.
Relative price of consumption goods and investment goods is
changing over time, thus:
By giving up one unit of consumption, the individual will buy 1/pI (t )
units of capital goods.
This will have an instantaneous return of rI (t ).
Individual will get back the one unit of capital, which has experienced a
change in its price of p I (t ) /pI (t ).
Finally, he will have to buy consumption goods, whose prices changed
by p C (t ) /pC (t ).
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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model VI

Therefore,
rC (t ) =

rI (t )
p (t )
+ I
pI ( t ) pI ( t )

p C (t )
.
pC ( t )

(25)

Given our choice of numeraire, we have p C (t ) /pC (t ) = 0.

Moreover, p I (t ) /pI (t ) is given by (24).
Finally,
rI (t )
=A
pI ( t )

given the linear technology in (22).

Therefore, we have
rC (t ) = A

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

p I (t )
.
pI ( t )
November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model VII

In steady state, from (24):
rC = A

(1

) gK .

From (4), this implies a consumption growth rate of

gC

1
C (t )
= (A
C (t )

(1

) gK

) .

(26)

Finally, dierentiate (21) and use the fact that labor is always
constant to obtain
C (t )
K (t )
= C
,
C (t )
KC (t )
From the constancy of (t ) in steady state, implies the following
steady-state relationship:
gC = gK .
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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model VIII

Substituting this into (26), we have
gK =

(1 )

(27)

.
(1 )

(28)

and
gC =

Because labor is being used in the consumption good sector, there

will be positive wages.
Since labor markets are competitive,
w (t ) = (1

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

) pC ( t ) B

(1

Economic Growth Lecture 8

(t )) K (t )
L

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model IX

Therefore, in the balanced growth path,
w (t )
w (t )

p C (t )
K (t )
+
pC ( t )
K (t )
= gK ,

Thus wages also grow at the same rate as consumption.

Proposition In the above-described two-sector neoclassical economy,
starting from any K (0) > 0, consumption and labor income
grow at the constant rate given by (28), while the capital
stock grows at the constant rate (27).
Can do policy analysis as before

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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The Two-Sector AK Model

The Rebelo Model

The Two-Sector AK Model X

Dierent from the neoclassical growth model, there is continuous

capital deepening.
Capital grows at a faster rate than consumption and output. Whether
this is a realistic feature is debatable:
Kaldor facts include constant capital-output ratio as one of the
requirements of balanced growth.
For much of the 20th century, capital-output ratio has been constant,
but it has been increasing steadily over the past 30 years.
Part of the increase is because of relative price adjustments that have
only been performed in the recent past.

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Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Growth with Externalities I

Romer (1986): model the process of knowledge accumulation.

Di cult in the context of a competitive economy.
Solution: knowledge accumulation as a byproduct of capital
accumulation.
Technological spillovers: arguably crude, but captures that knowledge
is a largely non-rival good.
Non-rivalry does not imply knowledge is also non-excludable.
But some of the important characteristics of knowledge and its role
in the production process can be captured in a reduced-form way by
introducing technological spillovers.

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Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Preferences and Technology I

No population growth (we will see why this is important).
Production function with labor-augmenting knowledge (technology)
that satises Assumptions 1 and 2.
Instead of working with the aggregate production function, assume
that the production side of the economy consists of a set [0, 1] of
rms.
The production function facing each rm i 2 [0, 1] is
Yi (t ) = F (Ki (t ) , A (t ) Li (t )) ,

(29)

Ki (t ) and Li (t ) are capital and labor rented by a rm i.

A (t ) is not indexed by i, since it is technology common to all rms.

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Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Preferences and Technology II

Normalize the measure of nal good producers to 1, so market
clearing conditions:
Z
1

and

Ki (t ) di = K (t )

Z 1
0

Li (t ) di = L,

L is the constant level of labor (supplied inelastically) in this economy.

Firms are competitive in all markets, thus all hire the same capital to
eective labor ratio, and
w (t ) =
R (t ) =
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

F (K (t ) , A (t ) L)
L
F (K (t ) , A (t ) L)
.
K (t )

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Preferences and Technology III

Key assumption: rms take A (t ) as given, but this stock of
technology (knowledge) advances endogenously for the economy as a
whole.
Lucas (1988) develops a similar model, but spillovers work through
human capital.
Extreme assumption of su ciently strong externalities such that A (t )
can grow continuously at the economy level. In particular,
A (t ) = BK (t ) ,

(30)

Motivated by learning-by-doing. Alternatively, could be a function

of the cumulative output that the economy has produced up to now.
Substituting for (30) into (29) and using the fact that all rms are
functioning at the same capital-eective labor ratio, production
function of the representative rm:
Y (t ) = F (K (t ) , BK (t ) L) .
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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Preferences and Technology IV

Using the fact that F ( , ) is homogeneous of degree 1, we have
Y (t )
K (t )

= F (1, BL)
= f (L) .

Output per capita can therefore be written as:

y (t )

Again k (t )
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Y (t )
L
Y (t ) K (t )
=
K (t ) L
= k (t ) f (L) ,

K (t ) /L is the capital-labor ratio in the economy.

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Growth with Externalities

The Romer Model

Preferences and Technology V

Normalized production function, now f (L).

We have
w (t ) = K (t ) f 0 (L)

(31)

and
R (t ) = R = f (L)

Lf 0 (L) ,

(32)

which is constant.

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Growth with Externalities

Equilibrium

Equilibrium I
An equilibrium is dened as a path [C (t ) , K (t )]t=0 that maximize
the utility of the representative household and [w (t ) , R (t )]t=0 that
clear markets.
Important feature is that because the knowledge spillovers are
external to the rm, factor prices are given by (31) and (32).
I.e., they do not price the role of the capital stock in increasing future
productivity.
Since the market rate of return is r (t ) = R (t )
constant.

, it is also

Usual consumer Euler equation (e.g., (4) above) then implies that
consumption must grow at the constant rate,
gC =
Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

1
f (L)

Lf 0 (L)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

.
November 19, 2013.

(33)
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Growth with Externalities

Equilibrium

Equilibrium II
Capital grows exactly at the same rate as consumption, so the rate of
capital, output and consumption growth are all gC .
Assume that
f (L) Lf 0 (L) > 0,
(34)
so that there is positive growth.
But also that growth is not fast enough to violate the transversality
condition,
(35)
(1 ) f (L) Lf 0 (L) < .
Proposition Consider the above-described Romer model with physical
capital externalities. Suppose that conditions (34) and (35)
are satised. Then, there exists a unique equilibrium path
where starting with any level of capital stock K (0) > 0,
capital, output and consumption grow at the constant rate
(33).
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Growth with Externalities

Equilibrium

Equilibrium III

Population must be constant in this model because of the scale eect.

Since f (L) Lf 0 (L) is always increasing in L (by Assumption 1), a
higher population (labor force) L leads to a higher growth rate.
The scale eect refers to this relationship between population and the
equilibrium rate of economic growth.
If population is growing, the economy will not admit a steady state
and the growth rate of the economy will increase over time (output
reaching innity in nite time and violating the transversality
condition).

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

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Growth with Externalities

Pareto Optimal Allocations

Pareto Optimal Allocations I

Given externalities, not surprising that the decentralized equilibrium is

not Pareto optimal.
The per capita accumulation equation for this economy can be
written as
k (t ) = f (L) k (t ) c (t ) k (t ) .
The current-value Hamiltonian to maximize utility of the
representative household is
c (t )1 1
H (k, c, ) =
+ f (L) k (t )
1

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

c (t )

k (t ) ,

November 19, 2013.

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Growth with Externalities

Pareto Optimal Allocations

Pareto Optimal Allocations II

Conditions for a candidate solution

H c (k, c, ) = c (t ) (t ) = 0
H k (k, c, ) = (t ) f (L) = (t ) + (t ) ,
lim [exp ( t ) (t ) k (t )] = 0.

t !

H strictly concave, thus these conditions characterize unique solution.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

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Growth with Externalities

Pareto Optimal Allocations

Pareto Optimal Allocations III

Social planners allocation will also have a constant growth rate for
consumption (and output) given by
gCS =

1
f (L)

which is always greater than gC as given by (33) since

f (L) > f (L) Lf 0 (L).
Social planner takes into account that by accumulating more capital,
she is improving productivity in the future.
Proposition In the above-described Romer model with physical capital
externalities, the decentralized equilibrium is Pareto
suboptimal and grows at a slower rate than the allocation
that would maximize the utility of the representative
household.
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Economic Growth Lecture 8

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Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions I
Linearity of the models (most clearly visible in the AK model):
Removes transitional dynamics and leads to a more tractable
mathematical structure.
Essential feature of any model that will exhibit sustained economic
growth.
With strong concavity, especially consistent with the Inada, sustained
growth will not be possible.

But most models studied in this chapter do not feature technological

progress:
Debate about whether the observed total factor productivity growth is
partly a result of mismeasurement of inputs.
Could be that much of what we measure as technological progress is in
fact capital deepening, as in AK model and its variants.

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Conclusions

Conclusions

Conclusions II

Important tension:
neoclassical growth model (or Solow growth model) have di culty in
generating very large income dierences
models here suer from the opposite problem.
Both a blessing and a curse: also predict an ever expanding world
distribution.

Issues to understand:
1

Era of divergence is not the past 60 years, but the 19th century:
important to confront these models with historical data.
Each country as an island approach is unlikely to be a good
approximation, much less so when we endogenize technology.

Daron Acemoglu (MIT)

Economic Growth Lecture 8

November 19, 2013.

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