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Definition of Overconfidence

Overconfidence is excessive confidence or relying too much on oneself. It refers to being overly sure of one's abilities, knowledge, or opinions. There are three main types of overconfidence: overestimation, where one overestimates their abilities; overplacement, also known as the better-than-average effect, where one believes they are better than others; and overprecision, where one is overconfident in their predictions and forecasts. Additional types include miscalibration, where one overweights their private information compared to observed information, and optimistic overconfidence, which deals with high confidence combined with unrealistic optimism.

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112 views

Definition of Overconfidence

Overconfidence is excessive confidence or relying too much on oneself. It refers to being overly sure of one's abilities, knowledge, or opinions. There are three main types of overconfidence: overestimation, where one overestimates their abilities; overplacement, also known as the better-than-average effect, where one believes they are better than others; and overprecision, where one is overconfident in their predictions and forecasts. Additional types include miscalibration, where one overweights their private information compared to observed information, and optimistic overconfidence, which deals with high confidence combined with unrealistic optimism.

Uploaded by

sani02
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Definition of overconfidence

Excessive confidence; too great reliance or trust.

overly sure of oneself

Confident to excess.

Overconfident Quotations

Well, I think we tried very hard not to be overconfident,


because when you get overconfident, that's when something
snaps up and bites you.
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/words/ov/overconfident197773.html#MZwmxM07orEb4yKJ.99

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our


impressions and judgments.
Daniel Kahneman

I am not overconfident.
excessively or unreasonably confident: mistakes made through being overconfident

Three Main Types of Overconfidence

Moore and Healy [2] identify three broad types of overconfidence: overestimation,
overplacement, and over precision.
[edit]Overestimation
Overestimating one's ability, knowledge, or performance. For instance, a person
could overestimate their ability to complete a puzzle within a time limit.
Interestingly, subjects tend to overestimate their skill on difficult tasks and
underestimate it on hard tasks[3].
[edit]Overplacement
Overplacement, or the better-than-average effect, is the belief that one is better
than others. If a person believes that they can solve the puzzle faster than 90% of
their peers, they are demonstrating overplacement. When asked about positive
abilities, such as driving ability, in relation to one's peers, 90% of participants
believed themselves to be in the top half.[4]
[edit]Overprecision

Overconfidence when estimating future uncertainty. This is usually related to


forecasts (of, say, stock prices).
[edit]Additional Types

[edit]Miscalibration
Fellner and Krgel define miscalibration in order to challenge its importance to
overconfidence[5]. Miscalibration, or misperceiving the reliability of signals and
results in overweighting private information[5], is a conflict between observed
information and private information--knowledge one already possesses or
information only one is privy to.
[edit]Optimistic Overconfidence
'Optimistic overconfidence' deals specifically with the intersection between high
levels of confidence and unrealistic optimism.[1] Kahneman and Tversky discuss
how the two feed off of each other, potentially leading to irrational escalation.

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