June 142010 Posts
June 142010 Posts
ratios Journal reporter E.S. Browning wrote about back in late May:
For the record, Shillers P/E ratio is still about 20 as of the first month of
June. So at least on that basis, Shiller would argue that stocks really arent
cheap yet
Fannie-Freddie Fix at $160 Billion With $1 Trillion Worst Case The cost of
fixing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage companies that last
year bought or guaranteed three-quarters of all U.S. home loans, will
be at least $160 billion and could grow to as much as $1 trillion after
the biggest bailout in American history. EU leaders to thrash out
multi-billion pound rescue package for Spain as it faces bankruptcy
EU leaders are meeting this week to thrash out a rescue package for
Spain as its economy teeters on the brink. BPs Major British
Shareholders Are Ditching The Company While American Ones Are
Staying Anti-BP rhetoric has been understandably more fierce in the
U.S. than in the U.K.. France Wows Skeptics With A 100 Billion Euro
Austerity Plan While Frances credit rating so far has remained under
relatively light criticism, as compared to many other Eurozone
nations, the nations budget deficit this year isnt pretty at 8% of GDP.
Moodys Cuts Greece Government Ratings to Junk Reuters | The
agency downgraded the rating by four notches to Ba1, placing it one
notch into junk status. Volcker Warns: We Are Running Out Of
Time MoneyNews | America is running out of time to fix its huge
economic and fiscal problems, warns former Fed chair Paul Volcker,
who now heads a financial advisory board to President Obama.
Economist Predicts Greece Will Default in August Economic Policy
Journal | Greece will eventually default on its debt because the country
is highly indebted, said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High
Frequency Economics.
Gaza Aid Ship Departs Iranian Port Kurt Nimmo | Iranian official in charge of
aid to Gaza says convoy participants may become martyrs. Obama
Compares Gulf Oil Spill To 9/11 Tragedy Mark Matheny | Our current
Dictator in Chief and his cronies will certainly play the crisis fiddle for all
its worth. Central Bank Hid Housing Market Crash Forecast
Infowars.com | Financial elite covered-up imminent global housing collapse
year before it happened. The 51st Police State: U.S. National Guard
being used to fight crime in Puerto Rico Andrew Steele | Establishing the
precedent of using the military in police actions as Puerto Rico slowly
transforms into a U.S. state will allow the practice to carryover once the
transition is completed. Not if Puerto Rico is smart, in which case they will
seek independence.
(6-14-10) Dow 10191 -20 Nasdaq 2243 +0 S&P 500 1,090 -2 [CLOSE- OIL
$75.13 (-54% for year 2008) (RECORD TRADING HIGH $147.27) GAS $2.85
(reg. gas in LAND OF FRUITS AND NUTS $3.05 REG./ $3.26 MID-GRADE/
$3.35 PREM./ $3.08 DIESEL)/ GOLD $1,226 [video] Gold Surges
Stocks/Gold Comparison (+24% for year 2009) / SILVER $18.41 (+47% for
year 2009) PLATINUM $1,535 (+56% for year 2009) / DOLLAR= .81 EURO, 91
YEN, .68 POUND STERLING, ETC. (How low can you go - LOWER)/ 10 YR
NOTE YIELD 3.26% .. AP Business Highlights ...Yahoo Market
Update... ] T. Rowe Price Weekly Recap Stocks / Bonds / Currencies -
Domestic / International This Is a Secular Bear Market and The End of
Buy and Hold and Hope MARKET MANIPULATION AND HOW THE
LATEST BUBBLE-FRAUD PRE-COMING CRASH IS BEING ACCOMPLISHED
3-11-10 6 Theories On Why the Stock Market Has Rallied 3-9-10
[archived website file] Risks Lurk for ETF Investors The bull market
that never was/were beyond wall street b.s. when measured in gold
Property Values Projected to Fall 12% in 2010 Jan 31, 2010 The Week
Ahead: Risk Is Off the Cliff; Unwind Has Begun Jan 31, 2010 01-13-10
Forecast for 2010 from Seeking Alpha Contributor THE COMING
MARKET CRASH / CORRECTION 1-28-10 Maierhofer (01-15-10) 11
Clear Signs Economy Sinking Economic Black Hole 1-22-10: 20 Reasons
Why The U.S. Economy Is Dying And Is Simply Not Going To Recover
Current Economic / Fiscal Charts Trendsresearch.com forecast for
2009 1-7-10 Crash is coming! WORST ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
EVER Must Read Economic / Financial Data This
Depression is just beginning The coming depression
thecomingdepression.net MUST READ: JEREMY GRANTHAMS
QUARTERLY UPDATE 25 January 2010 (850 on the S&P) by TPC The
Next Wave of Collapse is Coming Sooner than you think Sliding Back
Into the Great Depression ABSOLUTELY, ABSURDLY, RIDICULOUS! SELL /
TAKE PROFITS WHILE YOU CAN SINCE MUCH, MUCH WORSE TO COME!
$34 Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses
NYSE Of Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT Liquidity Provider
Lies As part of the SECs process to fix the broken market, it is
currently soliciting public feedback on a variety of issues. Why it is
doing so, we dont know after all anything that does not conform to
the SECs preconception of what the most lucrative market to the
SECs recent batch of clients (see earlier news about an SEC director
going to HFT specialist Getco) is, just ends up in the shredder anyway
ECONOMIC TRAIN REROUTED TO FLAT LINE author: Steven Hansen When Fed Chairman
Bernanke this week stated to Congress that the economy appears to be on track to
continue to expand through this year and next. I was wondering if Chairman Bernanke
had a different set of indicators he was reviewing ... The economic train seems to have left
the moderate expansion tracks. It was moderately expanding through March. In April
2010, a noticeable change in consumer spending data began. For me, it is telling that this
indicator is dropping so dramatically so soon after recovery from the Great Recession of
2007 ... This brings into question the long term benefits of economic measures to
stimulate the economy when no simultaneous action is taken to remedy the underlying
defects which triggered the recession. What is a bigger concern is that stimulus tends to
mask the underlying currents so that we are surprised at the economic direction when the
stimulus expires. And economic cheerleading creates long term distrust if v or moderate
recoveries are not delivered. In the same address to Congress, Chairman Bernanke
warned that the the US budget must be brought under control. You can thank Europe and
Japan for making a bigger mess of their budgets or the sucking sound you would be
hearing would have been the dollar and the USA economy crashing. There is no question
the current economic path we are traveling is creating unnecessary headwinds
The coincident indicators are starting to flat line.
The biggest flat line of them all is the initial unemployment claims. The biggest stimulus of
all time combined with quantitative easing and ZIRP and the unsuccessful actions of all
the Kings men is not stopping the unusually high plateau of job losses. The 4 week
moving average was up slightly for the week ending June 5. The graph below is the
unaveraged initial claims One of the more surprising April 2010 data points was the
slight contraction ($1 billion) of international trade MoM. This came despite growth in
outbound container counts which I use as an advance proxy for international trade.
Imports declined about the same as exports. A flat line of imports and exports is not
saying we have a moderate recovery underway there is a lot of evidence now building
against a 'moderate' growth scenario
Consumer Credit Declines In April At a 4% Annual Rate
Growth of consumer credit has been the driver for economic growth since the end of
WWII. The finance industry has continued to fine tune its methods so that it becomes
easier and easier to to buy what we want today whether we can afford it or not. Consumer
spending accounts for 2/3rds of the economy. We know the economy is growing if
consumer credit is growing as consumers are spending more money then they earn.
For April 2010 the Federal Reserve advised:
This month the Fed's statement is wrong March is the low month of the year while
December is the high month. This has been true since 2000. Using the average growth
between March and April since 2000, the April 2010 growth was short 0.36% MoM or 4%
if annualized. Combine this with:
Economic activity continued to improve since the last report across all
twelve Federal Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the
pace of growth as modest. Consumer spending and tourism activity
generally increased. Business spending also rose, on net, with employment
and capital spending edging up but inventory investment slowing. By
sector, nonfinancial services, manufacturing, and transportation continued
to gradually improve. Residential real estate activity in many Districts was
buoyed by the April deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Commercial real
estate remained weak, although some Districts reported an increase in
leasing. Financial activity was little changed on balance, although a few
Districts noted a modest increase in lending. Spring planting was generally
ahead of the normal pace, while conditions in the natural resource sectors
varied across the Districts. Prices of final goods and services were largely
stable as higher input costs were not being passed along to customers and
wage pressures continued to be minimal.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence for May 2010 increased slightly. The
opinion which accompanied this survey stated:
The May survey data indicate that consumers expect modest declines in
the rate of unemployment as well as small increases in inflation and
interest rates during the year ahead. Unfortunately, consumers also
anticipate a slower pace of recovery and that the gains in employment in
the year ahead will be distressingly small. Nonetheless, financial gains
among upper income households will continue to foster growth in overall
consumer spending, although the pace of spending growth will slow during
the balance of the year and into the start of 2011. Failed Banks this Week:
Wither Government. Chaos! Anarchy! Lost Revenue! Kurt Nimmo | What the
parasite class has wrought on the people of New York. What Do The
Sears Tower; WTC, and Terror Drills Have In Common? Shepard
Ambellas and Alex Thomas | Remember that on September 11, 2001,
NORAD was conducting a war games drill that simulated planes flying
into towers. Terrorism: Made in the U.S.A. Future of Freedom
Foundation | U.S. policy no matter whos in power couldnt be
better tailored to recruit terrorists.
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites Saudi
Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable
Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Irans nuclear facilities, The
Times can reveal. [Well, I guess thats what good Muslims do. After all,
Saudi Arabia is purported home to Mecca. The reality is that Saudi
Arabia has lost all credibility. Indeed, the sheik money seems to have
exceeded all notions of priority vis--vis Saudis pious
pronouncements of sanctimonious religiosity. I guess thats why they
are in fact a totalitarian state which merely exists for the sake of a few
family oil farms. The new Mecca will be Constantinople.]
http://www.albertpeia.com/wallstreetlunacy2ndqtr10108.htm
Olbermann Slams Tea Party Senate Candidate For Voting Against Water
Fluoridation MSNBC Countdown host Keith Olbermann has slammed
a Tea Party Senate candidate who won a key primary victory this
week, intimating that she is crazy because she believes sodium
fluoride, a deadly poison, is poisonous. This is really quite incredible
and Angle must be lauded because of this inconvenient, and really
life / health threatening truth (but what do you expect from a dying
network that shills for a mobster like t_rump, etc.) YouTube
Removes Video of Obamatron Thug Attacking Tea Party Activist As
should be expected, the original video posted by Watson was
removed by YouTube due to terms of use violation, a common tactic
employed by YouTube to take down videos it does not agree with or
that have received complaints, ALTHOUGH TRUTH BE TOLD, I
PERSONALLY EXPERIENCED THE SAME CENSORSHIP BY JONES ET
ALS IN MY COMMENTARY ON HIS SITES, AND WOULDNT EVEN
WASTE MY TIME THERE AS SUCH, HYPOCRITS THAT THEY ARE.
You think Iraq was bad? Invading Iran would be lunacy Ivan Eland,
Director of the Center on Peace and Liberty at the Independent
Institute in Washington DC, gives his opinion on new sanctions
imposed on Iran.
Glen Reply:
June 11th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Lunacy it would be.
But it is also to their great credit that the Iranians have not made their own threats.
Everyone knows there are 3 WMD threats, Nuclear Biological and chemical. The scariest of
which is Biological.
Any attack done under the threat of immediate biological retaliation would deter only the
insane.
Watch out america home of the insane, home of the leaders who want an 80% population
reduction.
Tech Events?
$34 Billion Asset Manager Says Market Prices Are Manipulated, Accuses
NYSE Of Intellectual Property Theft, Debunks HFT Liquidity Provider
Lies As part of the SECs process to fix the broken market, it is
currently soliciting public feedback on a variety of issues. Why it is
doing so, we dont know after all anything that does not conform to
the SECs preconception of what the most lucrative market to the
SECs recent batch of clients (see earlier news about an SEC director
going to HFT specialist Getco) is, just ends up in the shredder anyway
ECONOMIC TRAIN REROUTED TO FLAT LINE author: Steven Hansen When Fed Chairman
Bernanke this week stated to Congress that the economy appears to be on track to
continue to expand through this year and next. I was wondering if Chairman Bernanke
had a different set of indicators he was reviewing ... The economic train seems to have left
the moderate expansion tracks. It was moderately expanding through March. In April
2010, a noticeable change in consumer spending data began. For me, it is telling that this
indicator is dropping so dramatically so soon after recovery from the Great Recession of
2007 ... This brings into question the long term benefits of economic measures to
stimulate the economy when no simultaneous action is taken to remedy the underlying
defects which triggered the recession. What is a bigger concern is that stimulus tends to
mask the underlying currents so that we are surprised at the economic direction when the
stimulus expires. And economic cheerleading creates long term distrust if v or moderate
recoveries are not delivered. In the same address to Congress, Chairman Bernanke
warned that the the US budget must be brought under control. You can thank Europe and
Japan for making a bigger mess of their budgets or the sucking sound you would be
hearing would have been the dollar and the USA economy crashing. There is no question
the current economic path we are traveling is creating unnecessary headwinds
The coincident indicators are starting to flat line.
The biggest flat line of them all is the initial unemployment claims. The biggest stimulus of
all time combined with quantitative easing and ZIRP and the unsuccessful actions of all
the Kings men is not stopping the unusually high plateau of job losses. The 4 week
moving average was up slightly for the week ending June 5. The graph below is the
unaveraged initial claims One of the more surprising April 2010 data points was the
slight contraction ($1 billion) of international trade MoM. This came despite growth in
outbound container counts which I use as an advance proxy for international trade.
Imports declined about the same as exports. A flat line of imports and exports is not
saying we have a moderate recovery underway there is a lot of evidence now building
against a 'moderate' growth scenario
Consumer Credit Declines In April At a 4% Annual Rate
Growth of consumer credit has been the driver for economic growth since the end of
WWII. The finance industry has continued to fine tune its methods so that it becomes
easier and easier to to buy what we want today whether we can afford it or not. Consumer
spending accounts for 2/3rds of the economy. We know the economy is growing if
consumer credit is growing as consumers are spending more money then they earn.
For April 2010 the Federal Reserve advised:
This month the Fed's statement is wrong March is the low month of the year while
December is the high month. This has been true since 2000. Using the average growth
between March and April since 2000, the April 2010 growth was short 0.36% MoM or 4%
if annualized. Combine this with:
The major reason for the credit contraction in April was a contraction of revolving credit
(credit cards I assume this was caused mostly by bank write-offs). Non-revolving credit
(cars, mobile homes, etc) has remained in a tight range since the 4Q2007, and did increase
very slightly MoM.
Retail Sales for May
The Census believes retail sales were off 1.2% MoM in May 2010 according to their
advanced adjusted data. The unadjusted data is telling a far worse story. Even though the
April retail data was weak, the USA was showing a closing with the pre-recession levels.
May data now shows a widening retail sales in March and April 2010 were closing
almost to 1% of the pre-recession monthly peaks. The May 2010 data shows retail sales
over 6% less than the pre-recession peak initial May 2010 sales results from various
retailers is telling the same story it appears sales are down MoM and this is true. But
the drop MoM is significantly better than the historical MoM drop between March and April
Now, IF business sales are stalling we would begin to see an increase in inventories.
And sure enough the inventory to sales ratios have flat lined. There is a possibility that we
reached the optimum inventory levels, and it should be noted that inventories ALWAYS
increase between March and April.
The Federal Reserve issued their June 2010 Beige Book which is a summary of business
activity surveys in all twelve districts. Their summary:
Economic activity continued to improve since the last report across all
twelve Federal Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the
pace of growth as modest. Consumer spending and tourism activity
generally increased. Business spending also rose, on net, with employment
and capital spending edging up but inventory investment slowing. By
sector, nonfinancial services, manufacturing, and transportation continued
to gradually improve. Residential real estate activity in many Districts was
buoyed by the April deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Commercial real
estate remained weak, although some Districts reported an increase in
leasing. Financial activity was little changed on balance, although a few
Districts noted a modest increase in lending. Spring planting was generally
ahead of the normal pace, while conditions in the natural resource sectors
varied across the Districts. Prices of final goods and services were largely
stable as higher input costs were not being passed along to customers and
wage pressures continued to be minimal.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence for May 2010 increased slightly. The
opinion which accompanied this survey stated:
The May survey data indicate that consumers expect modest declines in
the rate of unemployment as well as small increases in inflation and
interest rates during the year ahead. Unfortunately, consumers also
anticipate a slower pace of recovery and that the gains in employment in
the year ahead will be distressingly small. Nonetheless, financial gains
among upper income households will continue to foster growth in overall
consumer spending, although the pace of spending growth will slow during
the balance of the year and into the start of 2011. Failed Banks this Week:
Wither Government. Chaos! Anarchy! Lost Revenue! Kurt Nimmo | What the
parasite class has wrought on the people of New York. What Do The
Sears Tower; WTC, and Terror Drills Have In Common? Shepard Ambellas
and Alex Thomas | Remember that on September 11, 2001, NORAD was
conducting a war games drill that simulated planes flying into towers.
Terrorism: Made in the U.S.A. Future of Freedom Foundation | U.S. policy
no matter whos in power couldnt be better tailored to recruit terrorists.
Soros Says We Have Just Entered Act II of Crisis Bloomberg | Soros said
the current situation in the world economy is eerily reminiscent of the
1930s. Gerald Celente: U.S. Financial Markets to Collapse by End of 2010
Infowars.com | Gerald Celente is a renowned trend forecaster, publisher of
the Trends Journal, business consultant and author who makes
predictions about the global financial markets and other events of
historical importance. Jobless Claims in U.S. Decreased Last Week to
456,000 Bloomberg | More Americans than anticipated filed applications for
unemployment benefits last week.
Greek Default Seen by Almost 75% in Poll Doubtful About Trichet Global investors have
little confidence in Europes efforts to contain its debt crisis or in European Central Bank
President Jean-Claude Trichet, with 73 percent calling a default by Greece likely. 12
Reasons Why The U.S. Housing Crash Is Far From Over Over the past several months,
many in the mainstream media have hailed the slight improvement in the U.S. real estate
market as a housing recovery. US Needs Austerity Too: Hedge Fund Strategist The
United States will have to adopt austerity measures similar to the ones taken in Europe,
because the problems faced are largely the same, Timothy Scala, macro-strategist at
Sophis Investments, told CNBC.com. Market Analyst: BPs Not Going to Last as a
Company More Than a Matter of Months Weve heard politicians, even conservative
Republicans, suggest BP would be held completely responsible for the devastation
caused by the oil spill plaguing the Gulf of Mexico, even if it means its very existence.
Israeli Official Threatens to Kill Turkish PM Kurt Nimmo | It is unprecedented for a top level
state official to threaten a head of another state with murder. Golds Flashing
Warning Sign Greg Hunter | A wicked storm is blowing our way. Infowars.com
Receives Rise of the New Right Script Kurt Nimmo | The establishment is
determined to take out the Tea Party political movement prior to the November
election. Music Industry on Verge of Total Collapse Celebrity Buzz | Radiohead
frontman Thom Yorke says musicians should resist signing record deals because
the major labels will completely fold within months.
US Media Terrified Of Mentioning USS Liberty Do you know that an american naval vessel
was attacked by israel in international waters, 43 years ago today, resulting in the deaths
of dozens of american sailors Arab lawmaker on flotilla sparks outrage in israel (AP) -
An Israeli-Arab lawmaker's decision to join hundreds of activists on a pro-Palestinian
flotilla has elevated her from relative political obscurity, transforming her into the poster
child for the ...
Why To Question the 2010 Stock Market Rally [Why To Question the 2010
Stock Market Rally Web Site Archived with Charts Click Here - In the
past year, we've written a lot about the similarity between the rally of
early 1930 and the one we had through April of this year. The early
1930 rally came after the market had fallen nearly 50% in the fall of
1929. The spring 1930 rally took the market up nearly 50% again, to a
level that was only about 20% below the previous peak. That rally, of
course, was also the biggest sucker's rally in history. After the market
peaked in April 1930, it crashed again, eventually ending up down 89%
from the 1929 high and more than 80% from the 1930 high. The market
did not reach the 1930 high again for another quarter of a century. The rally
that recently ended in April 2010 came after a crash that was actually
slightly more severe than the 1929 crash (53% versus 48%). It took the
market up nearly 80% from the low! The recent rally also lasted longer
than the 1930 rally did--a year, as opposed to 6 months ]
REMEMBER: In 1930, They Didnt Know It Was The Great Depression Yet
In the past year, weve written a lot about the similarity between the
rally of early 1930 and the one we had through April of this year.
Investment Banker: Its Going To Get Nasty Buy Land, Barbed Wire
And Guns A top investment banker has warned that the economic
fallout of the sovereign debt crisis could get so nasty over the next
five years that people would be wise to abandon the markets and
instead buy land, barbed wire and guns.
It's time to expel israel from the UN Without doubt, the israeli attack on the
Gaza-bound "Freedom Flotilla" in the dawn of Monday, May 31, 2010 is
one of the most savage crimes in recent history. It seems the ruling
power in Tel Aviv has been afflicted with a variant of mad cow
disease; otherwise, how could it be so cruel to unleash such a beastly
raid on the "Mavi Marmara," the Turkish flagship of a flotilla carrying
medical and humanitarian supplies to the hapless people of Gaza
Strip?
What Does China Want? They want to speak to Rosanne Rosanna Danna,
of course! Asian markets tumble on fears over Hungary Riiiiight!
Hungarys the thing! Rosanne Rosanna Danna, formerly of SNL fame
wanted in Asia to chime in with what her mama always used to say, Its
always something . Of course, it matters little to the frauds on wall street
what the something is said to be since the reality is This is a global
depression. This is a secular bear market in a global depression. This was
a manipulated bull (s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a
typically manipulated bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great
regularity that the wall street frauds and insiders commission and sell into.
This is a typical wall street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud
as in prior crashes. ( It should be noted, and there have been a multitude
of other instances, that Im getting substantial attacks vis--vis my
internet connection which has slowed dramatically these posts. I dont
think the interference is either accidental nor just coincidental but
consistent with corrupt defacto bankrupt americas critics of which I am
one and not alone in that regard slowing, militating against the
devastating truth about america.) Europe is Heading for a Depression
Despite a nearly-$1 trillion rescue operation, financial conditions in the
eurozone continue to deteriorate. All the gauges of market stress are
edging upwards and credit default swaps (CDS) spreads have widened to
levels not seen since the weekend of the emergency euro-summit. Key
Indicators of a New Depression With the mainstream media focusing on the
countrys leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent
housing recovery, one might think that the US government has
successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has
returned. Get Ready for a Double Dip but many warning flags point
towards significant deterioration in the U.S. and global economy going
forward and so I think that by the end of the year or early 2011, we could
very well be facing a new leg down in the worlds economic situation [Id
say too optimistic since, to reiterate: This is a global depression. This is a
secular bear market in a global depression. This was a manipulated bull
(s***) cycle in a secular bear market. This has been a typically manipulated
bubble as has preceded the prior crashes with great regularity that the wall
street frauds and insiders commission and sell into. This is a typical wall
street churn and earn pass the hot potato scam / fraud as in prior crashes.]
The End of Buy and Hold ... And Hope Brian Rezny (I was going to insert
his charts in this synopsis but there are just too many good ones and they
are a must see so go to his article, not just because I agree with much of
what he says though hes light on that depression thing and overly
optimistic as such, but because he is smart You may click here for
archived version) Buy and hold investing is a popular strategy, and the
thinking is straightforward: in the long run, the market will offer returns, in
spite of short-term volatility. In theory, this is a sensible idea.
Unfortunately, this approach does not work in todays market. Why not? Of
course, the market is down for this month. But thats not the reason this is
not a buy and hold environment. Its not just about the recent correction, or
the end of a market rally. The current trend fits into a much bigger
picture and its a picture of a long-term bear market. Secular markets are
long-term trends, typically lasting about 18 years. Secular bull markets
generally see stocks return at least 20% for the duration, while secular bear
markets see stocks decline at least 20%. And these secular trends are
interspersed with shorter, cyclical bull and bear markets. From 1982-2000
we experienced a secular bull market: in that period, stocks offered a
return if you bought and held for the duration (chart) But since then?
We have been in what I call a secular bear market. As you can see below,
an investor who bought into an index that tracks the S&P 500 as this trend
began in 2000, has experienced a negative return. And based on the typical
length of a secular bear, we could have several more years to go in this
trend (chart) And its not just over the last 30 years that this cycle has
occurred. We can look back over the last century and see a continuum of
secular markets, with bear trends starting in 1901, 1929, 1966, and 2000
Oct 31, 2009 ... or surplus, as a percentage of GDP ... USD in Millions.
Robert D. Arnott ... GSEs, the total public debt is now at 141% of GDP. ...
www.researchaffiliates.com Nov 23, 2008 ... But state and local debt as a
share of GDP has quadrupled since 1945, ... as a percentage of the overall
economy, recently exceeding the GDP for the first time ever. ... Rob Arnott
is chairman of Research Affiliates ... Robert Arnott the latest 12
months saw our public debt and unfunded obligations grow by 18% of
GDP! No wonder the debt seems to have grown crushingly large. Its
noteworthy that, if a company computes its debt by ignoring off-balance-
sheet and unfunded obligations, the management team wins an allexpense-
paid extended holiday at Club Fed. Enron, anyone? But, if you write the
laws, you can allow yourself these games. In emerging markets debt
investments, managers are wary of sovereign credits when their deficits
approach 5% of GDP. Yet here we are, after measuring on a more
economically accurate level, running at twice this worrisome warning
level for over 25 years. The Debt If we borrow more than we earn for such
an extended period of time, the debt picture wont be pretty. Its not. At 60%
of GDP, the United States ranks about 25th in the world for indebtedness.1
But thats not the whole story. To get the complete picture, we need to
factor in state and local debt and GSEs. Note that most other (particularly
developing) countries dont have layers of autonomous public entities of
this sort. Adding federal, state, local, and GSEs, the total public debt is now
at 141% of GDP. That puts the United States in some elite company only
Japan, Lebanon, and Zimbabwe are higher. Add in household debt (highest
in the world at 99% of GDP) and corporate debt (highest in the world at
317% of GDP, not even counting off-balancesheet swaps and derivatives),
and our total debt is 557% of GDP. Less than three years ago, our total
indebtedness crossed 500% of GDP for the first time. As Figure 2 shows,
apart from the shadow banking system we are most assuredly not
deleveraging. Direct debt is rising, not falling. Add in the unfunded portion
of entitlement programs and were at 840% of GDP. Yikes. No wonder the
debt burden feels so crushing. What cant happen, wont happen. If we
cant afford our direct debt, we surely cant afford our unfunded
obligations. The stroke of a pen can take these programs to means
testing. If retirees cannot enjoy Social Security or Medicare reimbursal
until their savings are drained, the unfunded obligations disappear. This
still leaving us true, direct debt of 5 times our income. It is a daunting
figure. How many people do you know that have owed five times their
annual income and suffered no adverse consequences?
Summer Streets Of Rage Predicted For Europe & U.S. Top historians,
social and financial analysts, along with police bodies are all predicting
that Europe and America are set to experience a summer of rage, with
scenes mirroring the chaos we have seen unfold in Greece in reaction to
draconian austerity measures now being imposed by governments in the
west Deflationary Depression and Purging To Come What now that
stimulus packages are ending, money set to plunge, market control by
insiders has to end, Fed doesnt need a monopoly, bond sales down, still
high expectations for gold. Strategic Defaults: Is It Morally Right To
Decide To Simply Stop Paying Your Mortgage? In 2010, record numbers of
Americans are defaulting on their mortgages. For most of them, it is
because they simply cannot afford the mortgage payments any longer.
The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double
Dip Is Now A Virtual Certainty The stock of U.S. money as measured by
M3 money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three
months ending in April. [ This is still an extraordinarily high level but I
dont buy it. I believe the printing presses have been working overtime to
pump out ever more worthless fiat currency and with the many trillions of
worthless fraudulent paper still out there and marked to anything. I further
believe the same is being surreptitiously used to supplant the fraudulent
paper, the consequences of which will be devastating, of course, as is
invariably so in depressions in any event. This scenario would also mean
huge fraud accomplis. ] Fiat Money Supply Contracting at Great
Depression Level The bankster operative who helped destroy Glass-
Steagall is back. Larry Summers, Obamas top economic adviser, has told
Congress to grit its teeth and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200 billion
to keep growth on track, reports the Daily Telegraph. Fiat Money Supply
Contracting at Great Depression Level Kurt Nimmo | The Federal Reserve
stopped publishing M3 figures back in 2006.
Forecasts from Dent, Napier, and then Prechter: Depression is Imminent The Dow Jones
Industrial Average will go down to at least 1000, most likely to below 777 which was
the starting point of its mania back in August 1982, and quite likely drop below 400
at one or more times during the bear market.
10 Reasons to Worry About Margin Growth a good portion of these factors will likely
impact margins by the end of the year. I dont believe this is adequately factored into
earnings estimates across the board. Given this, I believe we have seen the highs
for the year and next few quarters will be extremely volatile ...
Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything, You Wont Recognize America By The End
Of The Year Business Insider | Pul leeze, get out of stocks now, and I dont give a
damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits!
The frauds on wall street et als should be criminally prosecuted, jailed, and disgorgement
imposed. If that were so, they wouldnt be worrying about who wins / loses since those
who fraudulently play, invariably would (and should) pay. If theyre not prosecuted,
everyone loses.
Click here to see the Debt Clock, which is updated every second.
Youre nave to think that the so-called supreme court is any different from
the rest of the meaningfully lawless and pervasively corrupt american
system. I knew well an accomplished trial lawyer, fellow american college
of trial lawyers / and a bar examiner, who pondered from time to time
becoming a judge so hed never have to work again his words.
-----------------------
the loser here is alito.lost his composure not good for a judge especially
afederal or supreme justice .loser big time this will live with guy for a very
time.roberts and the other justices will have a talk with him that is a
given.this relly larger than o one day news cycle.
Posted by: donaldtucker | January 28, 2010 1:12 AM |
Ron Paul: After CIA coup, agency runs military US House Rep. Ron Paul
says the CIA has has in effect carried out a coup against the US
government, and the intelligence agency needs to be taken out. I
also personally believe there has been a defacto coup detat which
has manifested in various substantial, blatant, brazened frauds, ie.,
wall street, missing 360 tons of $100 bills in Iraq, war profiteering, etc.,
without any fear of prosecution, and of course concomitant decline for
u.s. as the treasury is looted. But I also believe its scope is beyond
just the CIA with many complicit within the corrupted 3 branches of
u.s. government (fed judges, us attorneys, illegal system, etc.) plus
the military and private big money, ie., Goldman Sachs / wall street
men, etc., among other organized crime. america is defacto bankrupt
in every way!
Rendition: Where the War on Terror Meets the War on Drugs Patrick
Henningsen | Its time to ditch the policies we have come to tolerate for
decades before they consume what is left of our moral core. Ive
experienced the corrupt inter-relationship of the government (all 3
corrupt branches) and the illegal drug trade / obstruction of justice /
bribery first hand, particularly the courts / u.s. attorneys offices (ie.,
alito now u.s. supreme court justice quid pro quo for his
complicity / cover-up), feds; see immediately after article excerpt for
links / summary.
[ http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/ricosummarytoFBIunderpenalt
yofperjury.pdf
http://www.albertpeia.com/112208opocoan/PeiavCoanetals.htm ].
americas just a fraudulent and failed defacto bankrupt nation.
A Plague Upon The World: The USA is a Failed State Dr. Paul Craig
Roberts | The American people are lost in la-la land. They have no idea that
their civil liberties have been forfeited. US citizen killed on flotilla
reportedly shot four times in head Raw Story | A forensic report said
Furkan Dogan was shot at close range, with four bullets in his head and
one in his chest, according to the Anatolian news agency. The explanation
foisted off on the americans by war criminal israelis is probably something
on the order of they just wanted to make sure they missed him.
Roberts: AIPAC purchases US elections Russia Today | Paul Craig
Roberts says that there will be nothing that is going to be done by the
United States to change the relationship with Israel.
NASA wants mission to bring Martian rocks to Earth (AP) Why? They
already have that and more:
Launch of secret US space ship masks even more secret launch of new
weapon
http://www.albertpeia.com/UFOetryWeNeverWentToTheMoonPNTV.wmv
War in Afghanistan and Iraq costs America $1trillion From the Old | On May
30th at 10:06 the United States reached the point where they have
spent $1trillion on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Sinking of the
Cheonan: A Classic False Flag Operation Russia Today | Sinking of
the warship was really intended to convince Japan not to move US
forces off Okinawa as well as divert the attention of Americans from
the dire economic situation at home. . Israel: IDF Troops Who
Murdered Unarmed Innocent People Are Brave Heroes The
government of israel, aided by many quarters of the international
media, is attempting to spin todays deadly IDF assault on a
humanitarian aid ship carrying supplies to Gaza as the fault of the
murdered activists on board the vessel, ludicrously characterizing
machine-gun carrying Israeli troops who killed over a dozen innocent
people as the victims of the incident.
Murder on the high seas JERUSALEM: Israeli marines stormed aid ships
bound for Gaza on Monday and at least 10 rights activists were killed,
triggering a diplomatic crisis and an emergency session of the UN
Security Council. European nations, as well as the United Nations and
Turkey, voiced shock and outrage at the bloody end to the
international campaigners' bid to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza
Strip
"What this means is that Neanderthals are not totally extinct. In some of us,
they live on," Paabo With regard to that extinction thing, Id say
theyre still working on it (ultimately, decades, extinction, the
distinction, without a difference). Actually, prior to studying the
compelling subject of Biological Anthropology (Michael Park text), I
too had some misconceptions about the group known as Neandertals
(recent spelling drops the h) and actually mis-referenced same by the
stereotypical image of members of said clade even as the debate
continues as to whether they are within the species homo sapiens or a
separate species. I believe these to be distinctions without important
differences, so humble the origins and evolution of man truly are.
Parenthetically, I wonder what that anthropological scientist Heidi
Klum thinks on the subject.
Previously I wrote:
FOUND: MISSING LINK BETWEEN APES AND MAN.... These stories, and
the many like it, are old news and I subscribe to the more studied view
that there is no missing link per se and in my view they are
distinctions without significant differences. I previously wrote:
To Learn More About From Whence Man Came, This Link's For You
Seeing Aliens Will Likely Take Centuries. Centuries? Not goin to happen;
at best, decades.