Quanttrading 1b
Quanttrading 1b
A short position
Futures contracts
are Derivatives
Stocks
Bonds
Derivatives
Stocks
Bonds
Derivatives
Derivatives are
contracts whose value
depends on the value of
some other entity
Derivatives
A stock, bond, currency,
commodity etc
Derivatives allow folks to
bet on the value of the
underlying asset without
actually owning it
Derivatives
Futures
Options
For wards
Swaps
Derivatives
Futures
Options
Derivatives are a
very vast area by
For wards
themselves
Swaps
Derivatives
Futures
Options
For wards
Swaps
Derivatives
Futures
Lets spend a little
Options
bit of time on
For wards futures contracts
Swaps
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
to buy/sell an asset
at a fixed future date
at an agreed price
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
to buy/sell an asset
10 tons of wheat
at INR 15/kg
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
to buy/sell an asset
10 tons of wheat
at a fixedThis
future
date
on
Jan
31,
2017
could be anything - stock,
at an agreed
price
bond, currency or a at
commodity
INR 15/kg
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
Expiry
date
of
the
contract
10
tons
of
wheat
to buy/sell an asset
at a fixed future date
at an agreed price
at INR 15/kg
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
Expiry
date
of
the
contract
10
tons
of
wheat
to buy/sell an asset
at a fixed future date
at an agreed price
at INR 15/kg
Futures
A Futures
contract price
is a contract
The market
of the
asset
is
Vitthal
will
sell
Swetha
betcalled
ween 2 parties
the spot price
10
tons
of
wheat
to buy/sell an asset
at a fixed future date
at an agreed price
on Janprice
31, 2017
For ward
at INR 15/kg
Futures
A Futures contract is a contract
bet ween 2 parties
to buy/sell an asset
10 tons of wheat
at INR 15/kg
Futures
Vitthal will sell Swetha
10 tons of wheat
at INR 15/kg
In this contract
Vitthal benefits if the spot price
of wheat on Jan 31 < INR 15
Futures
Vitthal will sell Swetha 10
tons of wheat
Futures
Vitthal will sell Swetha 10
tons of wheat
Short Position
Long Position
Futures
The price of the futures contract
is directly dependent on the spot
price of the underlying asset
Futures
If the spot price increases ,
futures price increases and
vice versa
Futures
Futures contracts allow traders
to bet on the value of something
without directly investing in it
Futures
For example, a futures contract on a
stock market index, allows the trader
to go long or short on the index
Futures
In addition to this, there are 4
important differences bet ween trading
futures and trading stocks directly
Futures
4 important differences
1. It is far easier to express a short view on a
stock or a commodity via futures than via the
underlying stock or commodity itself - no need to
borrow
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
4 important differences
Futures
What are futures
contracts used for?
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Hedging is the
process of
protecting against
exposure to risk
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
A farmer who produces
wheat might buy a
Speculators futures contract to
hedge
against
the
risk
Arbitrageurs of wheat prices falling
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Speculators have a
point of view on which
direction the price of
the asset will go
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
are folks who
Speculators look for market
inefficiencies
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
If that relationship is
violated, for instance if
the futures contract is
too expensive relative
to the spot price
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
This is called
an arbitrage
opportunity
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
Futures
What are futures contracts used for?
Hedgers
Speculators
Arbitrageurs
In a perfect market ,
arbitrage opportunities
are rare and disappear
in a very short time
Financial Markets
Trading Strategies
developed using
Mathematical Models
involves trading in
Financial Markets
Trading Strategies
developed using
Mathematical Models
involves trading in
What is a trading
strategy?
An example:
Whenever the closing price >
opening price of a stock, go long
on the stock the next day
Performance Measures
Return
Risk
Return
Here is the price trend of Apple Stock over the last 5 years
Return
Lets say you bought some Apple shares in 2012
Return
As the price of the shares increases, you make a profit
Return
As the price of the shares decreases, you make a loss
Return
The net gain/loss you make
over the period that you
hold the stock is called the
Return
Pbuy
Psell
Return
Return
P
P
buy
sell
=
Return is usually
expressed as a %
Return
P
P
buy
sell
=
Return %
aka Return Rate
Pbuy
Return
Return
Compute the daily returns on your
trading strategy
Pyest
P
Daily Return % = today
Pyest
Return
P
Pyest
Daily Return % = today
Pyest
The Average Daily Return tells us
how the strategy has performed
Average Return
can be calculated based on
the frequency of trading,
daily/weekly/monthly
Average Return
This measure doesnt
account for the fact that
the returns might vary a lot
Average Return
This is exactly where
Risk comes in
Performance Measures
Return
Risk
Risk
Risk is a measure of
variability in the Return
Risk
Risk is often measured as
The standard
deviation of returns
Risk
Standard deviation measures
of risk have some flaws
They do not perfectly capture some
forms of risk, such as tail risk
Risk
Even so, standard deviation
measures of risk are
Very common, and quite
robust - if used with caution
Risk
For now, lets use keep
things simple we will use the terms risk and
standard-deviation synonymously
Risk
Lets consider the Monthly return series of 2 stocks
Stock B
Stock A
2.5
1.875
1.25
0.625
April
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Stock A
2.5
Risk
4
1.875
1.25
0.625
April
Stock B
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Stock A
2.5
Risk
4
1.875
1.25
0.625
April
Stock B
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Stock A
2.5
Risk
4
1.875
1.25
0.625
April
Stock B
May
June
July
April
May
June
July
Risk
In general, the higher the
average return of a security
Risk
The lower the risk of
an investment
the safer the
investment is
Risk
Theoretically, it is possible to
have a security with Zero Risk
The return from such a security is
called the Risk-Free Rate of Return
Risk
Zero Risk
Risk
Zero Risk
Risk-Free Rate
of Return
Risk
Zero Risk
Risk-Free Rate
of Return
Risk
Zero Risk
Risk-Free Rate
of Return