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Calculating R Using An Iterative Method

This document discusses using an iterative method to calculate the growth rate (r) of a stable population based on life table data. It provides an example using data from Kuwait in 1982. The initial r value is estimated, then Lotka's equation is used with this r to calculate the sum. Coale's iteration formula refines the r estimate until the sum converges to 1, providing the precise growth rate. The document then instructs using this iterative method on life table data from England and Wales in 1996 to calculate r.

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Cakama Mbimbi
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171 views

Calculating R Using An Iterative Method

This document discusses using an iterative method to calculate the growth rate (r) of a stable population based on life table data. It provides an example using data from Kuwait in 1982. The initial r value is estimated, then Lotka's equation is used with this r to calculate the sum. Coale's iteration formula refines the r estimate until the sum converges to 1, providing the precise growth rate. The document then instructs using this iterative method on life table data from England and Wales in 1996 to calculate r.

Uploaded by

Cakama Mbimbi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Definition

A stationary population is a special example of a stable population with a zero


growth rate, neither growing nor shrinking in size, and is equivalent to a life table
population.
Stable populations are theoretical models widely used by demographers to
represent and understand the structure, growth and evolution of human
populations. By definition, stable populations have age-specific fertility and
mortality rates that remain constant over time. It can be proved mathematically
that populations with unchanging fertility and mortality patterns grow (or shrink) at
a constant rate and acquire a characteristic age structure that does not change over
time.

Calculating r using an iterative method stable p[population theory


Lotkas third equation is difficult to solve because the unknown variable (r) appears
in an exponential expression in every term of the equation. Using a spreadsheet or
statistical software, it is possible to find a numerical solution using a series of
iterations. The first step in solving Lotkas equation using this method is to find an
initial, approximate value for r. This can be done by guesswork or we can make an
approximation based on generation length,.
A worked example using empirical fertility and mortality schedules
We will illustrate the use of iteration, using life table and fertility data from Kuwait,
1982. (See the spread sheet for data)
A convenient starting point for an initial value of the growth rate is to use the
relationship
r=ln{NRR}/G
with an approximate value of G = 27 years for the generation length. We use 27 as
an approximate value of G because it is a reasonable guess at the mean age of
reproduction in human populations. In the case of Kuwait, this gives us a starting
value of r = ln(2.319)/27 = 0.0311.
Age
group

Midpoint

Female age-specific
fertility rate

x - x+4

5 x

15-19

17.5

0.03234

4.76625

f /2.05

Life table person Lotka


years
calculation
Lx

f Lx.exp{ra}
5 x.5

0.08937

20-24

22.5

0.10356

4.74050

0.24360

25-29

27.5

0.12429

4.70725

0.24844

30-34

32.5

0.10400

4.66750

0.17640

35-39

37.5

0.07741

4.61900

0.11120

40-44

42.5

0.03795

4.55550

0.04601

45-49

47.5

0.01624

4.46675

0.01652

NRR =

2.319

Lotka sum

0.93155

27

r estimate

0.0311

The next step is to check this growth rate estimate by using it in Lotkas equation. In
the following table, the individual terms of Lotkas equation for each age group are
shown in the last column, and the sum of these terms is 0.93155. With our initial
value of r, Lotkas equation does not balance (i.e. the sum of the terms does not
equal 1).

We can then use iterative methods to get a more precise estimate of the growth
rate. It is clear that a slightly lower value of r is needed to balance the equation,
and it would be possible to keep guessing values of the growth rate to move
towards a sum of 1.0. But Coales iteration formula for a subsequent value of r
allows us to refine our estimate of the growth rate more efficiently. In this formula,
r1 is the previous estimate of r and x1 the previous sum of Lotkas equation. The
NRR in this population is 2.319.
r=r1.ln(NRR)/[(ln(NRR)x1+1)]
So in this case, our next growth rate estimate will be:
r=0.0311.ln(2.319)/[(ln(2.319)0.93155+1)]=0.0288
Once again we insert the new value of the growth rate in to Lotkas equation to see
if we have found the correct growth rate for the given schedules of fx and Lx. If the
equation still does not converge to 1, we repeat the process until it does:

Age
group
x - x+4

Midpoint
a

Female age-specific Life table person


fertility rate
years
5Lx
5fx/2.05

Iterations
5fx.5Lx.exp{-ra}
2
3

15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49

17.5
22.5
27.5
32.5
37.5
42.5
47.5
NRR =
G

0.03234
0.10356
0.12429
0.10400
0.07741
0.03795
0.01624
2.319
27

4.76625
4.74050
4.70725
4.66750
4.61900
4.55550
4.46675
Lotka sum
r estimate

0.08937 0.09312 0.09334


0.24360 0.25679 0.25758
0.24844 0.26499 0.26599
0.17640 0.19037 0.19122
0.11120 0.12142 0.12204
0.04601 0.05083 0.05113
0.01652 0.01847 0.01859
0.93155 0.99598 0.99989
0.0311 0.0288 0.0287

0.09334
0.25760
0.26601
0.19124
0.12206
0.05114
0.01859
1.00000
0.0287

After 4 iterations, we can see that Lotkas equation has produced a value of 1. This
means we have found the correct growth rate for the given schedules of fx and Lx.

Using the following life table data, from England and Wales in 1996, use the
iterative method to calculate a precise growth rate estimate. You will need to use
Coales iteration formula to narrow the growth rate estimate with greater precision.
The NRR in this population is 0.837, you have been provided with an initial growth
rate guess of -0.00659, based on ln(NRR)/27. Use 5 decimal places, when you find a
value of r closer than 0.0001 to 1 then that is close enough! (see the spread sheet
attached. )

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