EF isn ETI Evelyn L. BrannonChapter / THE FASHION FORECASTING PROCESS shion used To come [rom one source a Se Een ea eran ve eee ee eee SA ed Objectives F ‘+ Understand the multifaceted character * Understand the breadth and depth of of fashion, the forecasting process. ‘+ Analyze the trajectory of fashion Identify the role of forecasting in the change. textile and apparel industries. ‘© Identify the concept of Zeitgeist, or spirit of the times, as a framework for understanding and interpreting fashion change.FASHION FORECASTING TREND CHASERS—WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY, AND HOW Meteorologists who study the formation and behavior of tornadoes are called storm chasers. They position themselves in the geographic location most likely to spawn these violent but short-lived weather events. Then, with skill, knowh, edge about storm behavior, perseverance, and a little luck, they locate and investigate the phenomenon, They transmit their findings to other meteorolo- gists and, eventually, to the public. Like the storm chasers, trend chasers locate the spawning ground of trends and use their skill and knowledge to identify emerging concepts. Trend chasers trans- mit their findings to other forecasters, product developers, marketers, and the press, setting off the chain reaction that people call fashion, The result is a con. tinuous flow of products with new styling, novel decoration, and innovative uses. Trend chasers work in many kinds of firms—for designers, advertising agen, cies, fiber producers, trade organizations, retail chains, and apparel brands. However, their job titles rarely include variations on’ the word forecaster Instead, these executives have job titles that range from director of design inspiration to manager of trend merchandising to fashion director, and their backgrounds are just as varied (“The next,” 2003). * Roseann Forde, DuPont Textiles & Interiors Forde studied to be a buyer, but found her calling when she became the man- ager of a fabric library. There, she created color boards and identified trends, * Kathryn Novakovic, Cotton Incorporated Novakovic wanted to start a business making hand-knit sweaters, but instead majored in textile science at college. Later she worked as a production engineer for a fabric company and moved on to the design and production staff of a major apparel brand, before landing her current position (Figure 1.1). One thing all forecasters have in common is frequent travel. Forde makes quar- terly trips to London, Paris, and Milan. Novakovic browses flea markets in London and researches color in the Scandinavian countries, Forecasters also work in trend agencies that consult with companies in apparel, cosmetics, and interiors. Each agency develops a distinctive approach (Loyer, 2002). For example: * Nelly Rodi, based in Paris, employs 25 consultants and 11 agents, and calls on sociologists and psychologists to define trends. * Peclers Paris employs 65 people and 22 agents worldwide, and depends on the intuitive insights of its creative team. Agencies publish trend books to illustrate their forecasts about 18 months ahead of the fashion season. The books include color chips, textile samples, fashion sketches, and photographs to illustrate trends.THE FASHION FORECASTING PROCESS forecasters live in the fashion capitals. Target Corporation, based in employs trend merchandisers that work for Mervyn’s, Marshall d Target stores. Many retailers and manufacturers repeat this pattern forecasters in their corporate offices, close to buying and product- teams. er their title or hunting strategy, trend chasers enable companies to 2 strategy based on timing. Called strategic windows, this strategy iming the firm's product offerings to the customer’s readiness and to accept and adopt those products (Abell, 1978). casting Defined forecasting has been compared to chasing the future with a butterfly dner, 1995). But spotting trends is not that difficult for people who themselves in popular culture and trade news. Forecasters pluck trends out of public information by becoming sensitive to directional that others miss. Faith Popcom, one of the forecasters most often ed in the media, calls this “brailing the culture”—looking for the new, the and the innovative, and then analyzing the whys behind it (1991). rs vary in the methods they use, but all are looking for an appara~ helps them predict the mood, behavior, and buying habits of the con- Because trends signal the emerging needs, wants, and aspirations of the canny manufacturers and retailers capitalize on their potential for 2 profit. i ‘The Cotton Incorporated forecast developed by Kathryn Novakovie and ber staff is one of the most widely used in the fashion and home furnishings business.Short-lived fads ver- sus classic clothes that stay in style for longer periods can be visualized by graph- ing their popularity ‘and duration. FASHION FORECASTING Forecasting is not magic practiced by a talented few with a gift of seeing the future. It is a creative process that can be understood, practiced, and applied by anyone who has been introduced to the tools. A professional does not pro- ceed by rule of thumb or trial and error but by mastery of the theory and prac tice of the field. Forecasting provides a way for executives to expand their thinking about change, anticipate the future, and project the likely outcomes (Levenbach & Cleary, 1981). Executives use forecasting as input for planning. Marketing managers posi- tion products in the marketplace using short- and long-term forecasts. Planners of competitive strategies use forecasting techniques to look at market share and the position of competitors in the marketplace. Product developers, merchan- disers, and production managers use the short-term trend forecasts of color, textiles, and style direction to shape collections. Visualization and Forecasting. In the narrowest sense, forecasting attempts to project past trends into the future. A trend is a transitory increase or decrease (Makridakis, 1990). Some trends have lasted for millennia—human popula- tion growth, for example. But all trends have the potential to eventually slow down and decline. While attention is showered on the most exciting and extreme runway fash- ions, the mechanisms of fashion change work in the background to create pat- terns familiar to the most experienced fashion watchers. Visualization helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions. Three of the most familiar patterns are fashion curves, the pendulum swing, and the fashion cycle. * Fashion Curves—Fashion trends are usually classified by duration and pen- etration, visualized as curves with time on the bottom axis and consumer adoption rates on the vertical axis (see Chapter 2 for details on this kind of analysis). In this way it is easy to show the difference between the shortest trends, called fads, and the longest, called classics (Figure 1.2). NUMBER OF ADOPTERSTHE FASHION FORECASTING PROCESS > Swing—Pendulum swing refers to the periodic movement of between extremes—for example, fluctuations between long and fitted and oversized silhouettes, and dressed up and casual These swings may take decades or a fashion season. Visualize the from power dressing of the late 1980s to the relaxed dress codes Some forecasters anticipate a swing back. Haysun Hahn of sees 2004 as a turning point for a return to tailored dressing, ensembles, traditional checks and plaids, and career dressing 2002). Designers’ initials and company logos were once a status but now consumers prefer individual style to becoming “walking (questions about possibilities) (questions about fact) > (questions requiring judgment and opinions) through the questions and look for those that need to be pushed farther, Jook for relationships and patterns. [FIGURE LS | sccing, with its many disciplines and multiple time horizons, focuses Solving tame probs Reacincss creativity, Forecasting professionals are hired by a company for lems requires think expertise. Some build on their knowledge of fashion with an insider's _ing inside the box SPrelon textiles, or styles. Stil others are futurists who look at long: Solving wicked prob- ciitscal shifts. Some bring the ability to bridge the gap between the cor- lems means thinking Son and a particular market segment, such as the under-30 consumer. As outside the box IDEAS FROM METAPHORS. OTHER FIELDS oss xsuurnons | ‘a ] ) a ) a v 1 s u A L 1 Zz A T I ° N CULTURAL ARCS PATTERNS ‘Thinking ‘Thinking Inside The Box Outside The BoxFASHION FORECASTING one of the partners of Sputnik, a research firm that uses young correspondents to track their peers, explains: “A trend is a shift in the prevailing thought process that eventually manifests itself in a range of popular tastes and, ulti- mately, consumer goods” (McMurdy, 1998). These professional “trend trekkers” work in fashion and in related industries such as cosmetics and fra~ grance. Lori Smith, a trend forecaster for one of the world’s largest makers of perfume puts it this way: “What I do is bring the outside world in” (Green, 1998). Reports from forecasting professionals—whether working inside the company or as consultants—affect the way a product is designed, the way it is sold, or where it is sold. One of the best ways to discover if you are a person with the natural gifts and skills required for business creativity is to do an internship with a fore- casting company. Consider trade organizations such as Cotton Incorporated, professional organizations such as the Color Association of the United States, retail corporations such as Target and Liz Claiborne, buying offices, fashion reporting services, and forecasting agencies and consultancies, Check the appendix for a list of possible contacts. Internships are offered on the basis of a company’s staffing needs at a particular time, Even if a company has never offered an internship in forecasting, it might offer one to the right applicant at the right time. To explore your interest in forecasting, create a portfolio. Developing a fore- cast is only the first step; communicating a forecast is an essential skill. In the port- folio you can demonstrate both these facets of professional forecasting practice Use the activities in the following chapters as a starting point for the portfolio. Use the portfolio to show your skills in an interview for a forecasting position. Forecasting professionals are media mavens—sponges for soaking up news that relates to change. Begin your profession by reading the kind of sources that are important to forecasters. By beginning your environmental scanning now, you will build a base for communicating with other forecasters and busi ness executives. A basic media scan would include: The Wall Street Journal as a substitute for a more extensive scan of business news. A national newspaper such as The New York Times or another daily from an urban center as a substitute for a more expansive news scan. The key trade papers for coverage of fashion and apparel industry news including Women’s Wear Daily (WWD) for women’s wear or Daily News Record (DNR) for men’s wear Advertising Age for coverage of marketing trends. Fashion and lifestyle magazines for coverage of popular culture and opinion leaders that influence fashion trends. Use an Internet search engine to locate profiles of forecasters. Few if any started as forecasters. Instead, these professionals gained experience in retailing‘THE FASHION FORECASTING PROCESS SGevelopment, moving into forecasting as their talents and expertise ble enough to support the specialization. By beginning your fan interest in forecasting, you can choose positions that help broaden your knowledge of the fashion industry—the kind of ‘essential to a forecasting professional. Eee eee og Long Wave Phenomenon Target Market Manufacturing Cycle Thinking inside the box Megatrend Thinking outside the box Pendulum Swing Trend Planned Obsolescence Visualization. Point-of-Sales (POS) Data Zeitgeist Short-Term Forecasting Serategic Windows sree erm) ‘often considers fashion to be the trivial pursuit of a few people. Eeshion is a pervasive process in human culture that plays out in an ber of ways. The diversity produces many meanings for words § Gshion, trends, and forecasting. Executives in the apparel industry ‘easitive to the subtle significance of these meanings in order to suc~ ‘blend aesthetic concerns with market mindfulness. Use the following to summarize and review this chapter. fashion: What mechanisms in society power fashion behavior? What sical traits of an individual power fashion behavior? How is meaning ed in culture? ‘of the Times: Since it is difficult to recognize the spirit of the times are living them, how can forecasters sensitize themselves to cultural ‘What product category interactions are indicative of the Zeitgeist? forecasting: What is the role of forecasters inside corporations? What Forecasting disciplines apply to the apparel industry? Is there value to d from integrating forecasting disciplines within a company? What Sf information are useful to forecasters and where do they find that son?FASHION FORECASTING Rules for Appropriateness. What social rules governed fashion in previous decades? Collect oral histories from young adults, people in middle age, and older people. During what time period were they children, teens, and young adults? Ask them to recall things they were taught about appropriate dress. ‘What rules did they have to follow on special occasions, on dates, at school, and at work? When did they notice a relaxation of some of these rules? Should any of these social customs be revived? What would be the effect on the apparel industry? Cover Stories. Track fashion evolution by looking at the covers of a fashion magazine over the past decade. Libraries often have bound volumes going back decades for the most popular and long-lived magazines. Because looking at all the covers would take too long, sample the issues by deciding which month or months to examine in each year, Then, systematically look at those covers Imagine the editor and art director carefully considering the clothes, model, makeup, background color, and all the other elements making up the cover. The cover is the billboard for the magazine and has important implications for newsstand sales. How have cover design and content evolved over the decade? ‘What directional signals for fashion change can you derive from this stud How are fashion magazines changing in the ways they showcase fashion? Mapping the Zeitgeist. It is difficult to recognize the spirit of the times as you are living through them. To sensitize yourself to this concept, map the Zeitgeist using the categories of dominant events, ideals, social groups, attitude, and technology for the decades from the 1920s to the 1990s. How do these cate- gories define what is remembered about each decade? Forecasting As a Career Path. Clip articles from trade and popular publica tions profiling forecasters in all the specialties. Note which work for compa- nies or corporations and which work for consulting firms. Analyze the aspects that are common across all forecasting fields. What courses in your curriculum ‘map to these competencies? Analyze the differences between the forecaster’s focus and responsibilities depending on the product category, price point, and target market. What courses in your curriculum encourage the development of specialized knowledge useful in the forecasting process?