MBF 720
MBF 720
Course Guide
Course Writers:
Dr. Ishola Rufus Akintoye
Dept. of Economics
University of Ibadan
Content Editor:
Dr. Sabastian Seddi Maimako
Dept of Management Sciences
University of Jos
Course Coordinator:
Mr. Emmanuel . u. Abianga
School of Business and Human Resource Management
National Open University of Nigeria
Victoria Island, Lagos
Programme Leader:
Dr. O J. Onwe
School of Business and Human Resource Management
National Open University of Nigeria
Victoria Island, Lagos
Abuja Office
No 5 Dar es Salam Street
Off Aminu Kano Crescent
Wuse II, Abuja
Nigeria
e-mail: [email protected]
URL: www.nou.edu.ng
Published by
CONTENTS
PAGE
Introduction..
What You will Learn in this Course.
Course Aim...
Course Objectives.
Course Materials
Study Units
The Assignment File.
Tutor-Marked Assignment
Final Examination and Grading
Summary
Introduction
MBF 720: Financial management II is a semester work of three credit units. It will
be available to all students taking the B.Sc programme in the school of business
and human resource management.
This course of 16 units involves financial management as an aspect of
management and finance which will be useful at both micro and macro
organizational levels.
The course guide tells you what this course MBF 720 is all about, the materials to
ensure you get the best and success. Other information contained in the course
includes how to make use of your time and the information on tutor marked
assignments. There will be tutorial classes. Full details concerning this will be
conveyed to you at the appropriate time.
Course Objectives
By the end of this course, you should be able to:
Course Materials
Study Units
Textbooks
The Assignment File
Study Units
There are 16 units of this course which you should study carefully:
Module 1
Unit 1:
Unit 2:
Unit 3:
Unit 4:
Unit 5:
Cost of Capital
Capital Structure Theory
Operating and Financial Leverages
Capital Structure and Value Of The Firm
Degree of Leverages
Module 2
Unit 1:
Unit 2:
Unit 3:
Unit 4:
Unit 5:
Dividend Theory
Dividend Policy and Value Of Firm
Projects
Feasibility and Viability
Project Planning
Module 3
Unit 1:
Unit 2:
Unit 3:
Unit 4:
Unit 5:
Unit 6:
Project Appraisal
Risk and Return
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Portfolio Theory
Financing SME
International Financial Management
10
will help you assess the course critically, consequently increasing your knowledge
of the course.
Tutor-Marked Assignment
In doing the tutor-marked assignments, you should apply what you have learnt in
the content of the study units.
These assignments which are four in number are expected to be turned in to your
tutor for grading. They constitute 30% of the total score.
Final Examination and Grading
At the end of the course, you will write an examination. It will attract the
remaining 70%. This makes the total final score to be 100%.
Summary
MBF 720: Financial management II shows you some of the objectives and need
and benefits financial management. Most importantly it shows you how to handle
finances and how to manage them know matter how small.
At the end of this course, you would have learnt how to make proper use of funds
and finances of an organization so as to achieve maximum results whether in small
scale, medium scale and large scale enterprise.
11
Course Writers:
Dr. Ishola Rufus Akintoye
Dept. of Economics
University of Ibadan
Content Editor:
Dr. Sabastian Seddi Maimako
Dept of Management Sciences
University of Jos
Course Coordinator:
Mr. Emmanuel . u. Abianga
School of Business and Human Resource Management
National Open University of Nigeria
Victoria Island, Lagos
Programme Leader:
Dr. O J. Onwe
School of Business and Human Resource Management
National Open University of Nigeria
Victoria Island, Lagos
12
Introduction
13
1.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Objectives
Cost of Equity Capital (Ke)
Cost of Retained Earnings (Kr)
Cost of Preferred Capital (Kp)
Cost of Debt (Kd)
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Convertible Loan Stocks
Conclusion
Summary
Tutor Marked Assignment (TMA)
Further Reading/References
1.1 INTRODUCTION
The management of a company has the paramount responsibility of directing and
controlling the company in the best interest of the owners (shareholders) and the
investors. The main objective of a business firm is to maximize the wealth of its
shareholders in the long run. The management is therefore expected to invest only
in those projects which give a return in excess of cost of funds invested in the
projects of the business. This cost of funds committed to the projects of the
business is what is called Cost of Capital. The cost of capital refers to the rate of
return the company has to pay to various suppliers of funds in the company. It can
be described as the minimum rate of return that a firm must earn on its investments
so that market value per share remains unchanged. In other words, it is the
minimum required rate of return on the investment project that keeps the present
wealth of shareholders unchanged. There are variations in the costs of capital due
to the fact that different kinds of investment assume different levels of risk which
is compensated for by different levels of return. Because different sources are
opened to a business firm when raising funds, basically equity and debt, the
determination of cost of funds becomes a phenomenon. Cost of capital is also
referred to as cut-off rate, target rate, hurdle rate, minimum required rate of return
and standard return. It consists of risk-free return plus premium for risk associated
with the particular business. Risk premium represents the additional return paid to
the providers of capital and debt in regards of the associated business and financial
risks.
In the NPV (Net Present Value) method, an investment project is accepted if it has
positive NPV. The projects NPV is calculated discounting its cashflows by the
cost of capital referred to as discounting rate. However, in the IRR (Internal Rate
of Return) method, the investment project is accepted if it has an IRR that is
higher/greater than the cost of capital.
14
15
Illustration 1.1
Ajegbe Ltd is expected to disburse a dividend of 300k on each equity share of
100k. The current market price of share is 800k. Calculate the cost of equity
capital as per dividend yield method.
Solution
Ke = d
d = 300k or MVe = 800k
MVe
Ke = 300/800 = 0.375 = 37.5%
Illustration 1.2
Odidere Ltd issued 10,000 equity shares of 10k each at a premium of 2k each. The
company has incurred issue expenses of N50. The equity shareholders expect the
rate of dividend to 18% p.a. Calculate the cost of equity share capital.
16
Solution
Since the equity shares are newly issued
Ke = di
NP
NP = Net proceeds of each equity share
di = 10 x 0.18 = 1.8
NP = (10,000 x 12) 5000k = 11.50
10,000 equity shares
Ke = 1.80 = 0.1565 or 15.65%
11.00
Note that the Market value per equity share is ex-div. Where the market value
given is cum-div it should not be used. The amount of the dividend should be
ascertained and deducted from the figure given to become ex-div.
Illustration 1.3
OSU Nig Plc has an authorized share capital of 450m of N1 each. 80% of the
share capital had been issued and each share is currently valued at 320k. Dividend
17
amounting to N16m was recently paid. The estimated growth rate is 18%.
Calculate the cost of equity capital.
Solution
Issues share capital = 80% of 50m = 40m shares = 40k
DPS = 16m / 40m shares
Ke = do(1+ g)
+g
MVe
Ke = 40k (1.18) + 0.18
320k
Ke = 32.75%
Illustration 1.4
The equity of Dangote Ltd are traded in the market at 90k each. The expected
current year dividend per share is 18k. The growth in dividend is expected at the
rate of 6%. Calculate the cost of equity capital.
Solution
Ke = d1 + g
MVe
Illustration 1.5
Given the following information about Obasanjo PLC.
Issued shares of N1 each N150,000
Current dividend
6,158
Market value per share 3.42
Current earnings
62,858
Net assets
315,000
Dividend 5 years ago 2,473
Estimate the dividend growth rate using
1)
dividend growth valuation method
2)
Gordons growth method
Solution
g =
dL
dB
r = 5, dL = 6,158 dB = 2,473
g =
5 6,158 - 1
2,473
g =
5 2.4900 - 1 = 20%
NOTE: Where the dividend for the years are given year by year, then use n-1
(number of years data provided)
2) Gordons
g=rxb
r = 62,858 x 100 = 20%
315,000
b = 62,858 6158 = 90%
62,858
g = 0.20 x 0.90 = 18%
19
This method incorporates the earnings per share (EPS) and the market price of the
share. This is based in the assuring firm that the future earnings whether disbursed
to the shareholders or ploughed back into the business will cause future growth in
the earnings of the company as well as the increase in market prices of the share.
Therefore;
Ke =
E
M
where E = Current earnings per share
M = Market price per share
Capital Asset Pricing Model
CAPM divides the required rate of return into two parts:
i)
Risk free return
ii)
Risk Premium
The risk premium is calculated by applying the projects beta factor (B) to the
difference between the market return and the risk free rates of the return.
Ke = Rf + B (Rm Rf)
Where Rf = Risk free rate of return
Rm = Market portfolios expected rate of return
B = Risk measurement (Beta factor)
(Rm Rf) = Market premium for risk
B(Rm Rf) = Risk premium
1.4 COST OF RETAINED EARNINGS (KR)
Retained earnings represent the funds accumulated over years of the company by
keeping part of the funds generated without distribution. It is the proportion of the
total earnings of a company distributable to the equity shareholders but which is
ploughed back into the business for further profitable investment opportunities. If
the retained earnings are distributed among equity shareholders, the amount would
have been reinvested to earn return on it. The cost of retained earnings therefore is
the return forgone by the equity shareholders and it is the opportunity cost of funds
not available for reinvestment by the individual shareholders. The cost of retained
earnings is therefore equivalent to opportunity rate of earnings forgone by the
equity shareholders. Hence, cost of equity includes retained earnings.
1.5 COST OF PREFERRED CAPITAL (KP)
The preference share capital represents the fixed dividend capital. It is easier to
estimate because the interest received by the holder of the security is fixed by
20
Illustration 1.6
XYZ Plc is financed by N10m, 10% redeemable debentures currently quoted at
N100 each. The debentures would be redeemed in 10 years time at par
Corporation tax is at 30%. Calculate the cost of the debentures.
21
Solution
YrCF
0 (100)
1-10 10
1-10 (3)
10100
DF @ 5% PV
1
(100)
7.7217
77
7.7217
(23)
0.6139
61
15
DF @ 5% PV
1
(100)
6.7101
67
6.7101
(20)
0.4632
46
(7)
Method of Valuation
1)
2)
Illustration 1.7
Ade Cement Ltd has the following capital structure:
Particulars
Market values
Equity share capital
80
Preference share capital
30
Fully secured debentures 40
22
Book values
120
20
40
Cost %
18
15
14
Calculate the companys weighted average cost of capital based on both market
values and book values.
WACC based on market values
Type
MV
Cost HASH Total
Equity
80
18%
14.4
Preference 30
15%
4.5
Debenture 40
14%
5.6
150
24.5
KW = HT x 100 = 24.5/150 x 100 = 16.33%
MV
WACC based on book values
Type
MV
Cost
Equity
120
18%
Preference 20
15%
Debenture 40
14%
180
HASH Total
21.6
3.0
5.6
30.2
Illustration 1.8
Orimogunje Ltd has issued 14% convertible debentures of N100 each. Each
debenture will be convertible into 8 equity shares of N10 each at a premium of N5
per share. The conversion will take place at the end of 4 years. The corporate tax
rate is assumed to be 40%. Assume that tax savings occur in the same year that the
interest payments arise. The flotation cost is 5% of the issue amount. Calculate the
cost of convertible debenture.
Solution
Yr Particulars
CF
0 Net proceeds
(95)
1-4Interest less I(1-t) 8.40
4 Conversion value 20
DF @ 14%
1.000
2.914
0.592
PV
DF @ 15% PV
(95.00)
1.000
(95.00)
24.48
2.855
23.98
71.04
0.572
68.64
0.52
(2.38)
23
Kd =14
+ 0.52
0.52 + 2.38
14
+ 0.52
2.9
= 14 + 0.18 = 14.18%
1.8 SUMMARY
Cost of capital has been seen as the minimum required rate of return that a
company must attain to maintain its market value and the value of its shares. The
cost of equity capital is estimated by using different methods which include
Dividend Yield Method, Dividend Growth Model, Price Earnings Method and
Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dividend growth rate can be ascertained either by
using dividend growth valuation model or Gordons growth model. Cost of
preference shares, cost of debts, cost of convertible loan stocks and weighted
average cost of capital are also deal with.
1.9 SELF REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Discuss briefly the different approaches to the computation of the cost of equity
2. How can you determine cost of equity in a growth company?
3. Cost of capital is the sum of the minimum for business risk plus a premium for
financial risk. Explain
4. Retained earnings have no cost. Do you agree? Give reasons for your answer
5. N1.10m ordinary shares currently valued at 3.00k per share financed CAB
LTD. A dividend of N6m is due for payment. Calculate the cost of equity
capital.
6. Oluwole Nig Plc is financed by 60m ordinary shares currently valued at 156k
per share. The results of the last five financial years are as follows:
Yr Earnings
2004 N20m
2003 N18m
2002 N16m
2001 N15.4m
2000 N13.9m
Dividend
N15.6m
N15m
N13.2m
N12.3m
N11.1m
24
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Drury C.
Ravi M.K.
CONTENTS
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
Introduction
Factors Determining Capital Structure Decisions
Optimum Capital Structure
Gearing and Financial Risk
Capital Structure Approaches
M-M Theory (Modern View)
Arbitrage
Summary
Self Review Questions
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Capital structure ordinarily implies the proportion of debt and equity in the total
capital of a company. In other words, capital structure of a company is made up of
equity and debt. Capital structure borders on how a company finances its
operations and it is usually made up of ordinary share capital, preference share
capital and debt capital.
Equity consists of the following: equity share capital, share premium, surplus
profits, and reserves and so on. On the other hand, debt of a company may consist
of all borrowings from the government statutory financial corporations and other
agencies, term loans from banks and other financial institutions, debentures and all
deferred payment liabilities. Ordinarily, increase in debt in the capital structure
implies greater amount of interest payment. Therefore, capital structure theory
becomes a topic of interest because the introduction of fixed interest debt in a
companys capital structure increases its financial risk. This is partly due to the
fact that interest must be paid whatever happens to earnings. Since acceptance of
more debt means payment of greater amount of interest, the company must have to
think twice about its effects on profitability.
2.2. FACTORS DETERMINING CAPITAL STRUCTURE
DECISIONS
26
risk is increased. Financial risk is the increased risk of equity holders due to
financial gearing. It does not arise from a companys investment; it is due solely to
the capital structure or more specifically to the level of gearing. The financial risk
of a companys capital structure can be measured by a gearing ratio. Gearing ratio
shows the proportionate relationship between fixed interest and equity capital in
the finance of a business.
Forms of Gearing
1st Gearing Ratio = Fixed interest capital + Pref. Share Capital
Shareholders funds
nd
2 Gearing Ratio = Fixed interest capital + Pref. Share Capital
Capital Employed
3rd Gearing Ratio = Total Debt
Shareholders funds
Total debt includes all liabilities of the company. It does not however include
preference share which for this ratio is taken as part of the shareholders funds.
4th Gearing Ratio = Interest on debt
EBIT
Ke
Kw
Kd
p
Level of gearing
Under this approach, the following assumptions hold:
1. The cost of debt will remain constant until a significant point is reached when it
would start to rise.
2. The WACC will fall immediately an external source of finance is introduced
and will be rising thereafter as the level of gearing increases.
3. The companys market value and the market per share will be maximized where
WACC is at the lowest point (p).
29
Ke
Kw
Kd
Illustration 2.1
A company has N10, 000 debts at 10% interest and earns N10, 000 a year before
interest is paid. There are 4,500 issued shares and weighted average cost of capital
of the company is 20%.
a) (i) What is the companys market value?
(ii) What is the cost of its equity capital?
30
Solution
(a) (i) Earnings before interest and tax = N10,000
WACC
= 20%
Market value of firm = N10,000 = N50, 000
0.20
(ii) Market value of firm
= 50,000
Less: Market value of debt = 10,000
Market value of equity
40,000
Ke =
d
MVe
Dividend = Total earnings Interest
= N10, 000 N1000 = N9000
Ke = N9000
x 100 = 22.5%
N40, 000
(iii) Market value per share = N40, 000 = N8.89
4,500
(b) (i) Number of repurchased shares = N10,000 = 1,125 shares
N 8.89
(ii) The new cost of equity capital
New market value = N40, 000 N10, 000 = N30, 000
New dividend = N9000 10%(10000) = N8000
New Ke =
N8000
x 100 = 26.67%
N30, 000
(iii) New market value per share
= N30, 000
= N30, 000
4,500 1,125
3,375
31
= N8.89
Illustration 2
Ota ltd and Sango ltd are identical in all respects including risk factors except for
debt/equity mix. Ota ltd having issued 12% debentures of N3, 000,000 while
Sango ltd issued only equity capital. Both companies earn 24% before interest and
taxes on their total asset of N5, 000, 000. Assuming the corporate effective tax rate
of 40% and capitalisation rate of 18% for an all-equity company. Compute the
value of Ota and Sango ltd using (i) Net Income approach and (ii) Net Operating
Income approach.
Solution
(i) Valuation of companies under Net Income approach
Particulars
EBIT (5,000,000 x 0.24)
Less: Debenture interest @ 12%
Ota
Sango
1,200,000
360,000
1,200,000
840,000
336,000
1,200,000
480,000
504,000
720,000
33
Proposition I
This states that the market value of any firm is independent of its capital structure,
altering the gearing ratio cannot have any effect on the company annual cash flow.
Companys value is determined by the assets in which the company has invested
and not how those assets are financed.
The value of the geared company is as follows:
MVg = MVu
MVg = Profit before interest
WACC
MVu = MVg = Earnings in ungeared company
Ku
Where:
MVg = Market value of a geared company
MVu = Market value of ungeared company
Ku = Cost of equity in an ungeared company
Proposition II
The rate of return required by shareholders increases in proportion to the debtequity ratio increase. The cost of equity rises exactly in line with any increase in
gearing to offset any benefits conferred by the use of cheap debt.
Kd = Cost of debt
D = Value of Debt
MVeg = Market value of a geared company
Proposition III
The cut-off rate for new investment will in all cases be average cost of capital and
will be unaffected by the type of security used to finance the investment.
ARBITRAGE
The process of buying an asset or security in one market and selling the same in
another market to derive benefit from the price differential is referred to as
arbitrage. The arbitrage procedure involves that an investor will sell his shares in
the company having the higher market value and move to the company having the
lower market value lending or borrowing in order to carry out the arbitrage
transaction. The word arbitrage is a technical term that refers to a situation where
two identical commodities are selling in the same market for different prices. At
equilibrium, the increase in demand will force up the price of the lower priced
goods and increase in supply will force down the price of the high priced goods.
If two firms with same level of business risk but different levels of gearing sold
for different values, then shareholders would move from over-valued firm to under
valued firm to maintain financial risk at the same level. The process of arbitrage
would drive the price of the two firms to a common equilibrium total value.
Illustration:
The capital structure of XYZ ltd and PQR ltd are given below:
Particulars
XYZ
PQR
Equity capital
3,000,000 4,000,000
Debt 16%
3,000,000
Total
6,000,000
4,000,000
Both companies are in the same class of business risk with earnings before interest
of N1, 800,000. Mr. X is holding equity of 5% in XYZ ltd. He sold his shares and
borrowed on interest at 16% p.a. Explain how Mr. X will be better off in switching
his holding to PQR ltd under MM theory.
Solution
XYZ Ltd profits available for distribution
N
35
1,800,000
480,000
1,320,000
5 = N66,000
100
Value of shares sold = 5 x 3,000,000 = N150,000
100
Value of shares to be bought in PQR = 5 x 4,000,000 = N200,000
100
Amount borrowed = 200,000 150,000 = N50,000
Mr. Xs Net Gain
Total earnings in PQR ltd
Mr. Xs share in PQR (1,800,000 x 5)
100
Less: interest on personal loan (80,000 x 16)
100
Net earnings of X in PQR ltd
N
1,800,000
90,000
8,000
82,000
2.8.
SUMMARY
Capital structure of a company consists of debt and equity components raised from
long-term sources. The significant advantage of debt funds is fixed interest
obligation and tax deductible. The debt equity ratio is a commonly used
determinant of capital structure. In traditional approach, the optimum capital
structure is determined at a profit where WACC is minimum and at this point the
value of firm is maximised. The net operating income approach on the other hand,
states that the value of firm is independent of its capital structure. MM theory is
considered as modern approach to capital structure. MM argue that the process of
arbitrage will prevent the different market values for equivalent firms.
2.9
company.
Critically examine the Net Income and Net Operating Income Approaches
to capital structure.
Distinguish between Net Operating Income approach and MM Approach.
Briefly explain arbitrage notion of MM Theory.
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Isimoya D.C
Pandey I.M.
Ravi M.K.
CONTENTS
3.1.
3.2
3.3
3.4.
3.5.
Introduction
Leverage Ratios
Interest Cover and Income Gearing
Summary
Self Review Questions.
3.1.
INTRODUCTION
LEVERAGE RATIOS
a)
Activity Leverage.
i.
ii.
iii.
i.
Operating Leverage.
This has to do with the normal operation of a firm. It arises from the operating
activity of the firm. It relates to the sales and profit variations. Operating leverage
is the responsiveness of firms EBIT to the changes in sales value.
i.e. Operating Leverage = Contribution
EBIT
OR Contribution
Operating Profit.
Operating leverage of a firm is determined by the fixed cost and variable cost mix
of the firm. If the firm has high level of fixed cost and low variable cost, the
38
operating leverage would be higher. The low operating leverage is dictated by high
variable cost and low fixed cost. The percentage change in EBIT resulting from a
percentage change in sales can be measured and this is called degree of operating
leverage.
Degree of Operating leverage = Percentage change in EBIT
Percentage change in sales
Or = %EBIT
%Q
Or = Q (P V)
Q (P V) F
Where, Q = Quantity produced and sold
P = Selling price per unit
V = Variable cost per unit
F = Operating fixed costs
Operating Leverage is present in the firm if
% EBIT > 1
% Q
Illustration 3.1
Firms A and B manufactures the same product and their cost sheets are given
below
A
B
Units manufactured and sold
20,000
20,000
N
N
Direct material
10
10
Direct labour
5
5
Variable overheads
5
5
20
20
Contribution
10
10
Selling price
30
30
Assuming the fixed overheads of 100,000 150,000
Calculate the operating leverages for the two firms.
Solution
A
N
200,000
100,000
100,000
200,000
B
N
200,000
150,000
50,000
200,000
EBIT
Operating leverage
100,000
50,000
Firm As operating leverage is twice of B as the fixed overheads are higher. The
higher the operating leverage ratio the more risky the situation.
(ii)
Financial Leverage
This has to do with the financing activities of a firm. It refers to the use of debt in
the capital structure. The financial leverage is an indicator of responsiveness of
firms EPS to the changes in its profit before interest and tax. When this ratio is
considered along with the operating ratio, it gives a fair idea about the firms
earning, its fixed costs and the fixed interest expenses. The degree of financial
leverage is an attribute of the firms exposure to financial risk.
Financial Leverage = EBIT
EBT
Where EBIT = Earnings Before Interest and Tax
EBT = Earnings Before Tax
The degree of financial leverage is expressed as follows:
DFL = Percentage change in EPS
Percentage change in EBIT
Or = % EPS
or EPS/EPS
% EBIT
EBIT/EBIT
EPS is estimated as below:
EPS = (EBIT I) (1 t) - Dp
N
Thus Degree of financial leverage can also be expressed as follows:
DFL = EBIT
(EBIT I) (1 t) Dp
Where I = Interest on long-term debt
t = Corporate tax rate
Dp = preference dividend.
Illustration 3.2
The following information is available for Orimogunje Ltd for the year ended 31st
March, 2005.
Interest on debt
N400,000
Preference dividend
N200,000
Corporate tax
40%
40
EBIT
=
EBIT
EPS
(EBIT I) (1 t) Dp
DFL = 1,000,000
(1,000,000 400,000) (1 0.4) 200,000
= 1,000,000
600,000 (0.6) 200,000
= 1,000,000
160,000
= 6.25
(ii) DFL =
1,500,000
1,100,000 (0.6) 200,000
Favourable or unfavourable financial leverage can arise depending on the firms
earnings on the assets and fixed financing cost paid. It is favourable when the firm
earns more on the assets purchased than the fixed financing cost paid. On the
contrary, excess of financing costs over profits results in unfavourable or negative
leverage. Higher financial leverage means higher EBIT resulting in higher EPS, if
other things (variables) remain the same. Financial leverage generally raises
expected EPS, but it also increases the riskiness of securities as the debt-asset ratio
rises. Financial leverage has its impending effect on a firms WACC and value.
Increase in financial leverage will reduce WACC and bring about increase in the
market price of equity shares and value of the firm. On the contrary, decrease in
financial leverage will cause increase in WACC and decline in the value of the
firm.
(iii)
Total Leverage
Total leverage may be defined as the potential use of fixed costs, both operating
and financial which magnifies the effect of sales volume change on the EPS of the
firm. The total leverage is also called Combined Leverage. Total leverage
degree can be calculated as follows:
41
42
The inclusion of current liabilities in debt-equity ratio is justified by the fact that
the sundry creditors can exert pressure on the management.
3. Debt-Net worth Ratio.
This ratio relates the long-term debt with the network of the firm that is, the capital
and free reserves less intangible assets.
Long-term Debt
Net worth
This ratio is justified on the basis that it excludes invested capital in fictitious
assets like deferred expenditure.
3.3 INTEREST COVER AND INCOME GEARING
This ratio is calculated to analyse the companys ability to meet interest
obligations. It is measured as a ratio of profit before interest and tax to interest
charges.
Profit Before Interest and Tax
Interest Charges
The inverse of the interest cover is called income gearing indicating the proportion
of pre-tax earnings committed to prior interest charges.
Interest charges
Profit Before Interest and Tax
x 100
Illustration 3.3
Busayo and Papa Ltds balance sheet shows the following structure of finance for
the year ended 31st March, 2009.
N
43
Solution
(a) Capital gearing ratio = Long-term debt + Pref. Capital
Long-term debt + Pref. Capital + Equity Capital +
Reserves
= 40 + 10
x 100 = 50 x
40 + 10 + 50 +20 +15
135
The gearing ratio is small and the companys financial risk is lesser.
(b) Income Gearing ratio
= EBIT
Fixed Interest
= 34
= 6.07 times
5.60
3.4 SUMMARY
The fixed interest debt component is used in total capital structure to enhance the
return to the equity shareholders. But the risk will increase in times of
unfavourable business condition.
Leverage refers to the ability of a firm in employing long-term funds having a
fixed interest to enhance returns to the owners. It is expressed as Contribution/Net
Profit.
If the operating leverage is higher the company is subject to greater degree of
business risk.
Financial leverage refers to the use of debt component in capital structure and the
effect of payment of fixed interest on firms profitability. It is EBIT / EBT.
44
The higher the combined leverage, the firm is subject to greater risk which
includes both business risk and financial risk.
3.4 SELF REVIEW QUESTIONS
REFERENCES
Drury C.
Pandey I.M.
Ravi M.K.
45
Ltd.
CONTENTS
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.1
Introduction
MM Theory with corporate taxation
MM Theory with personal taxation
Pecking Order Theory
Summary
Self Review Questions
INTRODUCTION
In unit 2, MM theory has been treated with the tax relief being ignored. The
assumption that there is no corporate tax is unrealistic for a corporate firm. From
this perspective, MM has modified their theory by considering tax relief available
to a geared company when the debt component is existing in the capital structure.
4.2
Cost of equity
Cost of capital
46
WACC
Cost of Debt
(After tax)
Gearing
As the level of gearing increases the WACC will be reducing and the companys
market value will be maximized at 100% level of gearing. The increase in the
value of the company is the present value of further tax relief referred to as a tax
shield. They assumed that the value of the geared company will always be greater
than an ungeared company with similar business risk, but only by the amount of
debt-associated tax saving of the geared company. So, at equilibrium price the
market value of a geared company is equal to the market value of its ungeared
counterpart plus the debt assisted tax shield.
At equilibrium
MVg = MVu + Dt
Where,
MVg = Market value of the geared company
MVu = Market value of an ungeared company
D = Market value of debt capital
t = Corporation tax rate
Cost of Capital of a Geared Company
Kg = (Ke x % of Equity) + (1 t) (Kd x % of Debt)
Where
Kg = WACC
Ke = Cost of Equity capital
Kd = Cost of debt capital (Pre-tax)
Cost of Equity Capital of a Geared Company
Keg = Ku + (1 t) (Ku Kd) x D
Veg
Where,
Keg = Cost of Equity capital in a geared company
Ku = Cost of capital of an ungeared company
Kd = Cost of debt capital (Pre-tax)
D = Debt capital
t = Corporation tax
47
Illustration 4.1
Mr. Fash Ltd has the following capital structure:
N
Equity Capital
3,000,000
Debt (16%)
6,000,000
9,000,000
Corporate tax rate is 40%. The cost of equity is assumed to be 24%. Calculate the
WACC of the company.
Solution
Kg = (24% x 30) + (1 0.4) (16% x 60) = 8% + 6.4%
90
90
= 14.4%
WACC of a geared company in a tax world is also given as:
Kw(g) = Kw(u) [ 1 Dt ]
MVe + MVd
Kw(g) = WACC of ageared company
Kw(u) = WACC of an ungeared company
Vd = Market value debt
Ve = Market value of Equity
t = Corporation tax rate
Illustration 4.2
YarAdua owns 1% of the equity of Atiku Plc a geared company with 1m N1
ordinary shares having a market value of N1.10 per share and N600,000 10%
debentures valued at N80. Yaradua transfers his funds to Obasanjo Plc, an
ungeared company. Both firms are in the same type of business susceptible to the
same degree of business risk and both firm generate income before debenture
interest of N200,000.
Obasanjo Plc is financed by 1.2 million N1 ordinary shares with a market value of
N1.05 per share.
Yaradua on selling his shares in Atiku Plc would have to borrow sufficient funds
in order to buy 1% of Obasanjo Plc. You are required to calculate:
a) Yaraduas present income from Atiku Plc.
b) His income on switching funds to Obasanjo Plc.
c) The gain to Yaradua on switching
d) The equilibrium position (Assume only Obasanjo plcs equity changes in
value).
48
Solution
Equity
Debt
EBIT
Less: Interest
Less: Tax at 40%
Dividend
Atiku Plc
N
1,100,000
480,000
1,580,000
200,000
60,000
140,000
56,000
84,000
Obasanjo Plc
N
1,260,000
1,260,000
200,000
200,000
80,000
120,000
N
12,600
11,000
1,600
1,200
(200)
1,000
1,000
840
160
= 1,580,000 192,000
= 1,388,000
4.3
MM theory considered only corporate taxes. However, Miller (1977) included the
effect of personal as well as corporate taxes in capital structure theory. He argued
that the existence of tax relief on debt interest but not on equity dividends would
make debt capital more attractive than equity capital to companies. Companies
must be ready to offer a higher return on debt in order to attract greater supply of
debt. When the company offers an after-personal-tax return on debt at least equal
to the after-personal-tax return on equity, equity supply will switch over to debt
supply to the company. This is based on the assumption that interest payments on
debt are allowed as a tax deduction whereas dividends on equity capital are not
allowed for tax deduction.
4.4
This theory was proposed by Donaldson in 1961 and modified by Meyers in 1984.
The theory asserts that a companys capital structure is more dependent on internal
cashflows, cash dividend payment and acceptable investment opportunities (NPV
> 0).
This theory states that when a company wants to finance its long-term
investments, it selects by following a well defined order of preference with respect
to the sources of finance it uses. At the initial stage, the firm will prefer to use
internally generated funds. If the internal funds are insufficient to meet its
investment requirements then it will prefer raising external funds in the form of
term loans and then non-convertible debentures and bonds and then convertible
debt instruments.
The last to be considered is in the form of new equity capital. This theory says
therefore that:
(i)
Firms prefer internal financing to external financing
(ii)
If firms choose external financing, they will issue the safest security
first i.e they will choose debt before equity financing.
(iii) As a firm sources for external funds, it will follow the pecking order of
securities.
4.5
SUMMARY
Originally, MM theory has ignored the corporate and personal taxation, but later
Miller modified the theory by considering tax relief available to a geared firm.
As per Pecking order theory, if the firms do require external financing they will
issue the safest security first in order of term loans, unsecured debentures, secured
debentures, convertible debentures, preference shares, convertible preference
shares and finally in the form of new equity shares.
4.6
REFERENCES
BPP Publishing Limited
Drury C.
Ravi M.K.
Ravi M.K.
Ltd.
CONTENTS
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Distinction between debt and equity
5.3 Trading on equity
5.4 Gearing
5.5 Summary
5.6 Self Review questions
5.1 INTRODUCTION
In unit 3, the meaning and various forms of leverages have been considered. This
unit further discusses the degree of leverage especially how it affects the return to
the equity shareholders. Before further discussions, distinction between debt and
equity should be made.
52
shareholders wealth because all investing, financing and dividend decisions are
taken in view of maximization of wealth of the owners. The debt funds are less
risk bearing compared to equity funds since the providers of debt have prior claims
on income and assets of the firm over equity holders.
While the financial leverage explains the impact of EPS, trading on equity shows
the impact on equity capital. It is calculated by taking difference of rate of return
on equity capital by having equity and debt components in capital structure to rate
of return on equity by having only equity share capital in the capital structure.
Illustration 5.1
Profitability Statement of Onikoko Ltd.
Financial Alternatives
A1
Nm
600
600
600
200
200
80
120
20%
Total Assets
Equity share capital
12% Debentures
Earnings before interest and tax
Less: Interest on debentures at 12%
Earnings before tax
Less: Tax at 40%
Return on Equity
B1
Nm
600
400
200
600
200
24
176
70.4
105.6
26.4%
C1
Nm
600
200
400
600
200
48
152
60.8
91.2
45.6%
In alternative A where there is no debt component, the company can earn only
20% return on equity. In B, by having debt component, the return on equity
increases. In C, it rises further but it is important to note that if the debt component
exceeds the desired level, the firm is prone to financial risk and bankruptcy risk.
5.4 GEARING
This term refers to the amount of debt finance a company uses relative to its equity
finance. A company is highly geared where there is high level of debt component
in its capital structure. It can be calculated with the help of debt-equity ratio or
capital gearing ratio i.e. (long-term debt/capital employed).
There are some problems associated with high level of gearing:
1. A highly geared company is subject to financial risk.
2. There is an increased possibility of bankruptcy risk.
53
3. Due to high levels of financial and bankruptcy risk a firm is exposed to, its
equity shares stock market prices will be quoted less.
4. The profitability and earnings of the company will be threatened due to
changes in interest rates of different debt components.
If the level of gearing increases, the expected return of equity shareholders will
also increase along with the increase in financial risk and bankruptcy risk. The
expectation of providers will also be more to compensate for taking higher levels
of financial risk and bankruptcy risks.
10
0
25
50
75
100
Level of Gearing (%)
So long as the existing gearing of the company is within the optimum range say
30% and 60%, the proportion of debt in a companys capital structure has little
effect on a companys cost of capital.
54
Solution
Earnings before interest and tax
Less: Interest 15%
Less: Corporate tax 40%
Net profit after interest and tax
EPS
1
N
2,000,000
2,000,000
800,000
1,200,000
2.4
2
N
2,000,000
150,000
1,850,000
740,000
1,110,000
2.8
3
N
2,000,000
450,000
1,550,000
620,000
930,000
4.65
From the above illustration, high levels of gearing leads to an increase in EPS for
equity shareholders. Meanwhile, the debt in capital structure increases the risk of
equity shareholders.
5.5 SUMMARY
The debt component should be used in capital structure to enhance the return to
the equity shareholders which is termed trading on equity. Also, gearing represents
the ratio which shows the proportion of debt capital in a firms capital structure
relative to its equity finance.
55
1.
2.
3.
4.
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Drury C.
Ravi M.K.
56
Learning Objectives
After the end of this unit, students must have understood:
What dividend theory is all about.
Factors determining the dividend decisions of a firm.
MM Theory of dividend irrelevancy.
Dividend relevancy suggested by Gordon and Linter.
Other theories on dividend policy.
CONTENTS
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Factors Determining the Dividend Decisions.
6.3 Dividend Supremacy or Relevancy Theory.
6.4 Dividend Irrelevancy Theory.
6.5 Other theories of Dividend.
6.6 Summary.
6.7 Self Review Questions.
6.1 INTRODUCTION
Dividend theory (Policy) tries to provide answer to the questions; which is better
the payment of dividend now or the retention of earnings for capital gain? This
theory explores the possibility of attaining an optimum dividend payout ratio that
maximizes the combined value of dividends paid plus capital gain.
Dividend policy has been considered very important in the firms objective of
maximizing shareholders wealth. Dividends paid out to the shareholders represents
cash outflow which depletes the available cash resources. The reduction in the
available cash will have implication on the investment opportunities of the firm
because investment projects of the firm also heavily depend on the available cash
resources.
The financial manager of a company therefore has a role of striking a balance
between dividend payout and retention of earnings, though the two serve the same
purpose of maximizing the shareholders wealth. While retained earnings are used
to finance expansion, dividends payment increases the purchasing power of the
shareholders. Although dividend and retained profits move in opposite directions
they still go hand in hand. It is impossible to formulate one without having an
effect on the other. A company must watch the profit distributed to the
shareholders (dividends) to satisfy the minimum required internally generated
funds to take care of investment opportunities and also it must restrict it selffinancing through retained profits at least to the extent that it must satisfy a
minimum requirement for dividends.
57
redemption, it will require funds and might cause a reduction in the level of
dividend payout.
6. The Risk Factor: Where a company is high business and financial risk
58
returns in the form of capital profit because of the high tax rate their high
incomes may be subjected to but shareholders in low income bracket will
be pleased to receive annual returns as high as expected since they are
indifferent.
8. Level of Inflation: As the level of inflation rises, shareholders would
issue new share capital to raise finance. This can have the effect of reducing
the control of the company by existing shareholders. If control is a
significant factor, dividend payouts are liable to be relatively low.
10. Dividend Policy of Similar Companies: In dividend decisions, companies
(a)
59
3.
4.
61
6.6 SUMMARY
Dividend depletes the cash resources which can otherwise be available for the
investment in profitable projects.
Dividend policy determines the distribution of net cashflows generated from
successful trading between dividend payments and corporate retentions.
Before a company determines its dividend policy, it should consider certain
factors. MM argued that share value is a function of the level of corporate
earnings. If there is a higher dividend pay out, the firm should issue new shares
which will depress the stock market price of the share. The reduction in value of
share is just equal to the dividend distributed per share.
outs.
2. Write short notes on:
(a) Dividend payout ratio.
(b) Dividend yield ratio.
(c) Price earning ratio.
3. What are the assumptions of dividend relevancy theory?
4. Discuss the various dividend determinants.
5. Explain the basic tenets of dividend irrelevancy theory.
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Drury C.
Ravi M.K.
62
63
CONTENTS
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Dividend Policies
7.3 Dividend Relevancy Theory Gordon Growth
Valuation Model and Walters Valuation Model
7.4 Dividend Payment Procedure
7.5 Summary
7.6 Self Review Questions
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The dividend policy of a firm has been given ample recognition that different
theories emanated to prove its relevancy in the determination of the value of firm.
M-M by their theory, dividend irrelevancy theory decried the important role
entrusted with dividend policy by dividend Relevancy Theory. They argued that
whatever dividend decisions taken by a firm will have no influence on its share
value.
However, we are now much concerned with the dividend relevancy theory. This
theory claims that a company can increase its value by determining and attaining
an optimum dividend value of dividends paid plus capital gain. The dividend
relevancy theory applies two models:
1) Gordon Growth Valuation Model
2) Walters Valuation Model
The important dividend policies generally followed by corporate firms as
discussed below.
7.2 DIVIDEND POLICIES
64
This policy is also known as Constant payout ratio method. By this method, a
fixed percentage of the net earnings is paid every year. If earning vary, the amount
of dividends also varies from year to year. The company follows a regular practice
of retained earnings because there is always a constant gap between earnings per
share and dividend per share.
65
in dividend. Here the market value of a firm is given by the present value of the
future dividends paid out to shareholders. Ideally, dividend is expected to grow.
The Gordon growth model is a theoretical model used to value ordinary equity
shares. The main proposition of the model is that the value of a share reflects the
value of future dividends accruing to that share. Hence, the dividend payments and
its growth are relevant in valuation of shares.
D1
Ke-g
Illustration 7.1
Baba Ijebu Ltd is an established company having its share quoted in the major
stocks exchanges. Its share current market price after dividend distributed at the
66
21% p.a having a paid up capital of 500,000 of 10k each. Annual growth rate in
dividend expected is 3%. The expected rate of return on its equity capital is 16%.
Calculate the value of Baba Ijebu Ltds share based on divided growth model.
Solution
MVe =
Do (1+g)
Ke - g
8,319,231
500,000
= 16.64k
Illustration 7.2
The shares of a gas company are selling at N20 per share. The firm had paid
dividend @ N2 per share last year.
i) Determine the cost equity capital of the company
ii)
Determine the estimated market price of the equity share if the anticipated
growth rate of the firm (a) rises to 8%
(b) fall to 3%
Solution
i) Ke =
Do (1 + g)
MVe
Ke =
+ g
2(1 + 0.05)
+
20
ii)a. If the growth rate raises to 8%
MVe =
2(1 + 0.08) = N28.8
0.155 0.08
b. If growth rate falls to 3%
2(1 + 0.03)
=
0.155 0.03
0.05 = 15.5%
2.06
0.155 0.03
67
= 16.48
Illustration 7.3
Ogbogbon Ltd is foreseeing a growth rate of 12% per annum in the next 2 years.
The growth rate is likely to fall to 10% for the third year and fourth year. After
that the growth rate is expected to stabilize at 8% per annum. If the last dividend
paid was N1.50 per share and the investors required rate of return is 16%, find out
the intrinsic value per share of Ogbogbon Ltd as of date.
Solution
Years
0 1 2 3 4 5
Discount factor @ 16% 1 0.86 0.74 0.64 0.55 0.48
Calculation of Present Value of Dividend
i) @ 12% p.a in the first 2 years
= [1.88 (1.1) x 0.64] + [1.88 (1.1)2 x 0.55] = 1.32 + 1.25 = 2.57
ii) Market value of equity share at the end of 4th year
P4 = Ds
Ke g
Where P4 = Market price of equity share at the end of 4th year
Ds = Dividend in 5th year
g = Growth rate
Ke = required rate of return
P4= 2.28(1+0.08) = N30.75
0.16 0.08
Present value of P4 = 30.75 x 0.55 = N16.91
Intrinsic value of equity share = 2.83 + 2.57 + 16.91 = N22.31
Illustration 7.4
PS Plc expects to achieve earnings next year of N2.4m and these will continue in
perpetuity without any growth at all, unless a proportion of earnings are retained.
If the company retains Y3 of its earnings an annual growth rate in earning and
dividends of 9% p.a in perpetuity could be achieved.
Alternatively, if the company were to retain 2/3 of its earnings an annual growth
rate in earnings and dividends of 12% p.a in perpetuity could be achieved. The
return currently required by PS Plc shareholders is 16%. If retentions of 1/3 were
68
made, the required return would rise to 19% and if retentions were 2/3 of earnings,
the return required would be 24%.
Required
a) No retention
Ke =
d
MVe
MVe = d
Ke
MVe = 2,400,000 = N15m
0.16
b) Retention 1/3 Growth 9% p.a
Ke =
do (1+g)
+ g
MVe
MVe = do (1+g)
Ke-g
MVe = 1,6000,000 = N16m
0.19 0.09
c) Retention 2/3 growth 12% p.a
MVc =
800,000
= N6,666,667
0.24 - 0.12
Walters Valuation Model
Walter argued that retention influence stock price only through their effect on
future dividends. The model recognizes the importance of internal rate of return
and cost of capital for valuation of shares and dividend decisions. The optimum
dividend policy of a firm by this model is determined by the relationship of rate of
return on firms investment and cost of equity capital. Under this model, the
determination of expected market price on a share is given as:
Mr =
D + ra (E D)
rc
where Mr = current market price of equity share
E = Earnings per share
D = Dividend per share
(E D) = Retained earnings per share
ra = rate of return on firms investment
69
Illustration 7.5
The earnings per share of a company is N8 and the rate of capitalisation applicable
is 10%. The company has before if an option of adopting (i) 50% (ii) 75% and
(iii) 100% dividend payout ratio. Compute the market price of the companys
quoted shares if it can earn a return of (a) 15%
(b) 10% and (c) 5% on its
retained earnings.
Solution
Mr = D + ra (E D)
70
rc
rc
i) When the Dividend payout ratio = 50%
a) where ra = 15%
Mr =
4 + 0.15 (8 4)
0.10
0.10
= N100
b) where ra = 10%
Mr =
4 + 0.10 (8 4)
0.10
0.10
= N80
c) where ra = 5%
Mr =
4 + 0.05 (8 4)
0.10
0.10
= N60
4 + 0.15 (8 6)
0.10
0.10
= N90
b) where ra = 10%
Mr =
6 + 0.15 (8 6)
0.10
0.10
= N80
c) where ra = 5%
Mr =
6 + 0.15 (8 6)
0.10
0.10
ra = 15%
71
= N70
Mr =
b) where
8 + 0.10 (8 8)
0.10
0.10
= N80
8 + 0.05 (8 8)
0.10
0.10
= N80
ra = 5%
Mr =
7.4
= N80
ra = 10%
Mr =
c) where
8 + 0.15 (8 8)
0.10
0.10
Dividends are generally paid twice in a year that is, interim dividend and final
dividend.
Declaration Date: It is the date in which the forthcoming dividend is announced
Date of Record: This designates when share transfer book are to be closed
Ex-div date: This is the date when the shareholders register is closed for the
transfer of shares. Purchase of shares after this date confers collection of dividend
on the old owner or seller.
Dividend Notice: This shows the amount of dividend payable after deducting
appropriate withholding taxes.
Payment date: this is the day dividend cheques are mailed out.
7.5 SUMMARY
Gordon Growth Valuation Model progress that the value of a share reflects the
value of future dividends accruing to that share and the market price of the share is
equal to the sum of its discounted future dividend payments.
Walters Model Assets that in the long-run the share prices reflect only the present
value of expected dividends and the retentions influence share price only through
their effect on future dividends. According to Walter, the optimum dividend policy
of a firm is determined by the relationship of firms IRR and its cost of capital.
7.6
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Strategic
Financial
Publishing), 1998
Drury C.
Ravi M.K.
UNIT 8: PROJECTS
Learning Objectives
73
Management
(BPP
CONTENTS
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
Introduction
Types of Projects
Capital Investment Process
New Concepts in Financing And Execution Of Projects
Summary
Self Review Questions
8.1 INTRODUCTION
A firms project is an investment which could involve assets acquired for purposes
of capital appreciation or income generation without activities in the form of
production, trade or provision of services. Projects are basically capital
investments. Capital investment decisions border on capital expenditures which
involve large some of money, have long time spans and carry some degree of risk
and uncertainty. The planning and control of capital expenditure is termed capital
budgeting. Capital budgeting is the art of finding assets that are worth more than
they cost to optimize the wealth of a business enterprise. For making a radical
decision regarding the capital investment proposals at hand, the decision maker
needs some techniques to convert the cash outflows and cash inflows of a project
into meaningful yardsticks which can measure the economic worthiness of
projects.
(i) Purpose
(ii) Size
(iii) Ownership
(i) Depending on the purpose, the projects can be classified as follows:
(a) Balancing Project
Balancing equipment is installed when there is imbalanced capacity
utilization of the plant and machinery due to unutilized capacity in some
units.
(b) Replacement Project
If any equipment is deteriorated due to obsolescence or is no longer
economically useful, it is replaced with a new equipment which may be
equivalent to old machine or it may also be more efficient than the old one.
Replacement project is considered in respect of individual machine.
(c) Expansion Project
When the current production levels of existing plant could not meet the
growing demand for the product in the market, and such growth is of
permanent nature, the management would decide to increase the capacity of
the plant by installing additional equipment and facilitator thereby the total
production in increased.
(d) Diversification Project
When a firm invest in project which is not connected with the existing line
of business but to entirely setup a new project. Such a project is called a
diversification project.
(e)
Due to technological development, wear and tear, the old plant and
machinery that was installed several years back, would require
modernization.
PROJECTS
-
Build, Own and Operate (B.O.O): Here, the entrepreneur will build the
project from his own resources and he will own the project subsequent to its
commercial launching.
operate for certain period after which the project is transferred to the
government.
-
8.5
SUMMARY
Strategic
Financial
Publishing), 1998
Drury C.
Management
(BPP
Ravi M.K.
78
CONTENTS
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5
Introduction
Feasibility Study Project Control
Techniques for Project Control
Reasons for Project Failure
Summary
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Before a project idea is considered for detailed study, the promoter must verify
certain factors. Once the entrepreneur comes to the conclusion that the project can
be taken up for detailed study, he can start with conducting of feasibility study.
9.2 FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT
This report is not very elaborate but it contains substantial information for
selection of the project. The report normally contains the following details:
a) Study of the configuration of the project idea in all aspects
b) Identifying the type and size of the project with justification
c) Study of location
d) Study of demand of products/services
e) Survey of material requirements
f) Project schedule
g) Project cost and sources of finance
h) Profitability and cashflow analysis
i) Cost benefit analysis
j) Identifying and quantifying risk element
k) Social cost benefits
l) Study of economic, political and legal environments.
This report is called Pre-investment report. It is prepared for establishing due
prima face projects viability with sufficient back up for the purpose of evaluation
of investment proposal by the entrepreneur.
79
Substantial overrun of the projects which makes the project not feasible
to
implement further
Changes in technology during the implementation of the project
Wrongful estimation of the cost of project and its profitability
Lack of experienced management team
Lack of delegation of authority and responsibility
Lack of proper project monitoring systems
Failure to obtain government clearances and permission
Lack of sufficient knowledge of the project to promoter
9.5 SUMMARY
A detailed project report is prepared containing the details about the plan of action,
details about technical, financial, marketing, management and social aspect.
REFERENCES
Ravi M.K.
CONTENTS
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9
Introduction
Project Organisation Structure
Benefits of Project Management
Selection of Project Location
Choice of Technology
SWOT Analysis
Project Visibility
Variance And Performance Analysis
Summary
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Manpower availability
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
11.
12.
13.
14.
2)
Illustration 10:1
The following information has been gathered on an on-going project
Budgeted cost of work schedule (BCWS)
50
Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP) 40
Actual cost of work performed (ACWP)
44
Budgeted cost of total work (BCTW)
100
Additional cost of completion (ACC)
66
Determine:
(a) Performance variance
(b) Efficiency variance
(c) Performance index
(d) Efficiency index
(e) Estimated cost performance index
84
Solution
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
Performance variance
= BCWP BCWS = 40-50 = -10
Efficiency variance
= BCWP ACWP = 40-44 = - 4
Performance index
= BCWP/BCWS = 40/50 = 0.80
Efficiency Index
= BCWP/ACWP = 40/44 = 0.9091
Estimated cost performance index
= BCTW/(ACWPT ACC) = 100/(44+66) = 0.9091
10.9 SUMMARY
The capital investment process involves search for investment opportunities,
screening and evaluation of alternatives and selection of right alternative for
implementation.
REFERENCES
Ravi M.K
CONTENTS
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
Introduction
Investment Appraisal Techniques
Traditional Techniques
Discounted Cashflow Techniques
Summary
Self-Review Questions
11.1 INTRODUCTION
Our major concern here has to do with investment decision and which is called
capital expenditure decision and which is under the umbrella of capital budgeting.
Capital budgeting involves all investments in long-term projects. It is the process
of selecting alternatives long-term investment opportunities. This decision entails
scrutiny that tends to find out whether or not money should be invested in longterm projects. In capital investment decisions, a firm is faced with different
alternatives out of which the firm must select these ones that optimize its
shareholders wealth. This is done by examining cash generation of the project
which is called investment appraisal.
In appraising a project, various techniques have been developed ranging from the
traditional to discounted cashflow techniques. Meanwhile, to permit realistic
appraisal, the value of cash payment or receipt, must be related to the time when
the transfer takes place. The process of converting future sums into their present
equivalent is known as discounting which is used to determine the present value of
future cashflows.
86
Illustration 11.1
Adamawa Plc is to undertake a project requiring N1,000,000 outlay. What is
Payback period if
a) the project generates N250,000 annually
b) the project has the following cashflow profile
Yr
1
2
3
4
5
Cashflow
200,000
220,000
230,000
220,000
195,000
Solution
a) Payback period Outlay
Annual cashflow
= N1,000,000
N250,000
= 4 years
87
b) Yr
0
1
2
3
4
5
Outlay
CF
Balance
(1,000,000) (1,000,000)
200,000(800,000)
220,000(580,000)
230,000(350,000)
220,000(130,000)
195,000
PBP = 4years + 130,000 x 12
195,000
= 4 years, 8 months
Decision Rules
When it is an independent project:
1)
Accept the project if the project ahs a PBP that is equal to or less than that
set by the management
2)
Reject if the project has a PBP that is greater than that set by the
management.
When there are mutually exclusive projects:
1) Choose the project with the least PBP
2) The PBP should be equal to or less than that set by the management
Advantages of PBP
1) It is simple to calculate and understand
2) It does not involve assumptions about future interest rates
3) Unlike ARR, it uses cash profit instead of accounting profit
4) It is the most suitable when the future is very uncertain.
Disadvantages
1) It ignores the time value of money
2) There are no rules for setting the maximum accepted PBP by the management
3) It ignores the cashflows after the payback period
88
4)
x 100
Illustration 11.2
Project A costs N200,000 and Project B costs N300,000 both have a ten year life.
Uniform cash receipts expected are A N40,000 p.a. and B N80,000 p.a. Salvage
values expected are A N140,000 declining at an annual rate of N20,000 and B
N160,000 declining at an annual rate of N40,000.
Solution
The bail-out payback period is reached when the cumulative cash receipts plus the
salvage value at the end of a particular year is equal to the initial investment.
Project A initial investment = N200,000
Cumulative Cashflow + Salvage value
End of yr 1
40,000
+ 140,000= 180,000
2
80,000
+ 120,000= 200,000
Bailout Payback period for A is 2 years
Project B initial investment = N300,000
Cumulative Cashflow + Salvage value
End of yr 1
80,000
+ 160,000= 240,000
2
160,000+ 120,000= 280,000
3
240,000+ 80,000
= 320,000
89
X 100
Illustration 11.3
Omotola Plc is to undertake a project requiring an investment of N100,000 on
necessary plant and machinery. The project is to last for 5 years at the end of
which the plant and machinery will have net book value of N20,000. Profit before
depreciation are as follows:
Yr
1
2
3
4
5
Profit (N)
40,000
44,000
48,000
52,000
58,000
Solution
(i) Calculation of depreciation
90
Cost
NBN
N100,000
20,000
80,000
= N16,000
= N60,000
Profit (N)
40,000
44,000
48,000
52,000
58,000
x 100
54%
Decision rules
a) When only one project is involved
1. Accept if the project ahs an ARR that is equal to or greater than that set by
the management
91
2. Reject if the project has an ATT that is less than that set by the management
b) When more than one project is involved
Select the project with the highest ARR
Advantages of ARR
1.
2.
3.
4.
Disadvantages of ARR
1.
2.
3.
4.
92
Illustration 11.4
Semijeje is to undertake a project worth N10m having the following cashflow
profile:
Yr Cashflows
1
5,000,000
2
6,000,000
3
8,000,000
However, if the discount rate of 25% is applied in order to account for the time
value of money, should the project be accepted?
i) Calculation of discounting factor
Yr D.F
1
1 = 0.800
(1+0.25)
2
1 = 0.640
(1+0.25)2
1 = 0.512
(1+0.25)3
PV
(10,000,000)
4,000,000
3,840,000
4,096,000
1,936,000
Decision rules
a) For only one project
1) Accept if the project has a positive NPV
2) Reject if the project has a negative NPV
b) For more than one project, select the project with the highest NPV
93
Advantages of NPV
1.
2.
3.
4.
Disadvantages of NPV
1. It is relatively more difficult to calculate and understand
2. It may not give dependable results
3. The selection of discounting rate is subjective.
Illustration 11.5
Calculate the IRR of a project having the following cashflows:
Yr
0
NCF
(3,610)
94
1
2
3
1,000
2,000
3,000
Solution
Trial and Error
Yr NCF
DCF@15% PV
0 (3,610)
1
(3,610)
1 1000
0.87
870
2 2000
0.76
1520
3 3000
0.66
1980
760
DCF@26% PV
1
(3,610)
0.79
790
0.63
1,260
0.50
1,500
(60)
Interpolation
IRR = R1 + N1
x (R2 R1)
N1 (N2)
R1 = 15, R2 = 26, N1 = 760, (N2) = (60)
:. Irr = 15 +
760 x (26-15)
760 (-60)
= 15 + 760 x 11
820
= 15 + 10.2 = 25.20%
Decision rules
a) In a case of only one project: to accept a project, if it has an IRR that is greater
than the cut-off rate stipulated by the management or if its IRR is higher than
the cost of borrowing.
b) In a case of more than one project. Select the projects that have an IRR that is
greater than the cut-off rate indicated.
still does not take into account those cashflows which occur subsequent to the
payback period.
Illustration 11.6
Gateway Ltd is implementing a project with an initial capital outlay of N7,600. Its
cash inflows are as follows
Yr
Cashflows (N)
1
6,000
2
2,000
3
1,000
4
5,000
The expected rate of return on the capital invested is 12% p.a. Calculate the
discounted payback period of the project
Yr
1
2
3
4
Cash inflow
Discount factor Present value
N
N
6,000
0.893
5,358
2,000
0.797
1,594
1,000
0.712
712
5,000
0.636
3180
NPV
10,844
Illustration 11.7
Original outlay N8,000
Life of the project 3 years
Cash inflows N4000 p.a for 3 years
Cost of capital 10% p.a.
96
1
8
2
8
3
8
Solution
i) Calculation of the compounded sum
Year Cash inflow Int. Rate Yrs for investment Comp. factor Comp. sum
1 4,000
8
2
1.166
4,664
2 4,000
8
1
1.080
4,320
3 4,000
8
0
1.000
4,000
12,984
The present value of N12,954
= N12,954 = N9,755
(1.10)3
Since the present value of reinvested cashflows N9,755 is greater than the original
cash outlay of N8,000, the project would be accepted.
11.5 SUMMARY
In appraising a project, various techniques have been developed ranging from the
traditional to the discounted cashflows techniques. The traditional techniques do
not take into account the time value of money. However, under the discounted
cashflow techniques, the future net cashflows generated by a capital project are
discounted to ascertain their present values.
11.6 SELF REVIEW QUESTIONS
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
CONTENTS
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7
12.8
Introduction
Risk and Return of a Single Asset
Risk and Return of Portfolio
Portfolio Diversification and Risk
Indifference Curves and Investors Attitudes
Risk-Return Relationship
Summary
Self Review Questions
12.1 INTRODUCTION
Risk is seen as the degree of probability of occurrence assigned to an investing or
financing decision from the knowledge of the past or existing events. The term
risk is used to describe an option where the outcome is not known with certainty in
advance but the probability of its occurrence ranges between 0 and 1. It implies the
possibility of receiving lower than expected return on investment or not receiving
any return at all or even not getting the principal amount back.
The difference between risk and uncertainty has been that, uncertainty cannot be
quantified while risk can be quantified of the likelihood of future outcomes. Risk
denotes a positive probability of something bad happening while uncertainty does
not necessarily imply a value judgment or ranking of the possible outcomes.
Therefore, risk is present when future events occur with measurable probability.
On the other hand, uncertainty is present when the likelihood of future events is
indefinite or incalculable.
Return of an Asset
A firms investments should earn reasonable and expected rate of return. Certain
investments like bank deposits, debentures, bonds etc carry a fixed rate of return
payable periodically. In case of investments in shares of companies, the
99
periodically payments in the form of dividends are not assured, though it may
ensure higher returns than fixed income investments. The rate of return of a
particular investment is calculate as follows:
R = D + P1 P2
Po
Po
where R = Annual rate of return of a share
D = Dividend paid at the end of the year
Po = Market price of share at the beginning of the year
P1 = Market price of share at the end of the year
In the above formula,
D/Po represents dividend yield and
(P1 Po) represents capital gain or loss
Po
Illustration 12.1
Mr Ororun has purchased 100 shares of N10 each of Kinetic Ltd in 2001 at N78
per share. The company has declared a dividend @ 40% for the year 2008-9. The
market price of share as at 1-4-2008 was N104 and on 31-3-2009 was N128.
Calculate the annual return on the investment for the year 2008-9.
Solution
Dividend received = N10 x 40/100 = N4
R = D + P1 Po = 4 + 4 (128-104) = 0.2692 or 26.92%
Po
Po
104
104
Risk of an Asset
Risk has been statistically express in terms of standard deviation of return. The
mean of the probable returns gives the expected rate of return and the standard
deviation or variance measures risk. Low standard deviation means low risk and a
risk averse investor will look for return where the range is low. Risk is therefore
equaled with volatility in expected returns.
Illustration 12.2
The rate of return of equity shares of Hill Top Ltd for past six years are given
below.
Yr2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
100
2009
Returns
12
18
-6
20
22
24
Solution
Calculation of the mean (Average Rate of Return)
R = R = 12 + 18 6 + 20 + 22 + 24 = 15
N
6
(R R) (R R)2
9
9
44.1
25
49
81
E(R-R)2 =
614
2
Variance = 614 = 102.23
6
Standard deviation = = 2 = 102.33
= 10.12
Yr
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Return R
12
-3
18
3
-6
-21
20
5
22
7
24
9
In investment risk analysis, expected returns rather than actual or realised returns
on investment are used. Expected return is the ate of return on investment attached
with associated probabilities.
E(R)
= PR = probability X returns
Illustration 12.3
The possible returns and associated probabilities of securities X and Y are given
below:
Security X
Security Y
Probability
Return (%) Probability
Return(%) 0.05
0.10
5
6
101
0.15
0.40
0.25
0.10
0.05
10
15
18
20
24
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.10
0.05
8
12
15
18
20
Solution
Calculation or Expected Return and Standard deviation of X
Probability (P)
R
PR
(R-R)
P(R-R)2
0.05
6
0.30
-9.5
4.5125
0.15
10 1.50
-5.5
4.5375
0.40
15 6.00
-0.5
0.1000
0.25
18 4.50
2.5
1.5625
0.10
20 2.00
4.5
2.0250
0.05
24 1.20
8.5
3.6125
R 15.5
16.35
Expected Return of security X (R) = 15.5
Standard deviation of security X
2 = 16.35
x = 16.35 = 4.04
Calculation or Expected Return and Standard deviation of Y
Probability (P)
R
PR
(R-R)
P(R-R)2
0.10
5
0.50
-7.25
5.2563
0.20
8
1.60
-4.25
3.6125
0.30
12 3.60
-0.25
0.0188
0.25
15 3.75
2.75
1.8906
0.10
18 1.80
5.75
3.3063
0.05
20 1.00
7.75
3.0031
R 12.25
17.09
Expected Return of security Y (R) = 12.25
Standard deviation of security Y
2 = 17.09
y = 17.09 = 4.134
102
:. Security A has higher expected return and lower level of risk as compared to
security Y.
12.3 RISK AND RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO
A portfolio is a collection of securities
1) Two-Asset Portfolio
Return
The expected return from a portfolio of two or more securities is equal to the sum
of the weighted returns from the individual securities.
E(Rp) = WA(RA) + WB (BB)
where (E(Rp) = Expected return from a portfolio
WA = Proportion of wealth/funds invested in security A
WB = Proportion of funds invested in security B
RA = Expected return of security A
RB = Expected return of security B
WA + WB = 1 or 100%
Illustration 12.4
A companys share gives a return of 20% and B companys share gives 32%
return. Mr Otunba invested 25% in As shares and 75% of Bs shares. What would
be the expected return of the portfolio.
Portfolio Return
Hp = E(Rp) = WA(RA) + WB (BB)
= 0.25 (20) + 0.75 (32) = 29%
Illustration 12.5
The table below is related to a portfolio comprising 40% of securities A and 60%
of security B.
Prob.
P
0.2
0.6
0.2
R =
PR
2.4
9.0
3.6
15
(R-R)
-3
0
3
(R-R)2
P(R-B)2
9
1.8
0
0
9
1.8
3.6
A2 = variance of A = 3.6
A = 3.6 = 1.8974
For Security B
R
15
20
P
PR (R-R)
0.2
3 -5 25
0.6
12 0 0
(R-R)2
5
0
P(R-B)2
104
25
0.2
5 5
R = 20
25
5
10
B2 = variance of B = 10
B = 10 = 3.1623
Coefficient of correlation = Covariance AB
A B
Covariance AB =
P
A-A
B-B
P(A-A) (B-B)
0.2
-3 -5
3
0.6
0 0
0
0.2
3 5
3
:. rAB = 6
A B
rAB =
6
1.8974 X 3.1623
i) Expected Return of the Portfolio
Np = Rp = WA(RA) + WB (RB)
= 0.4 (15) + 0.6 (20)
= 6 + 12 = 18
Risk (standard deviation)
p = WA2 A2 + WB A2 + 2 WA WB RAB A B
= (0.4)2 (1.8974)2 + (0.6)2 (3.1623)2 + 2(0.4) (0.6) (1.8974) (3.1623) (1)
= (0.16) (3.6) + (0.36) (10) + 2.8801
= 0.576 + 3.6 + 2.8801
= 7.0561
p = 7.0561 = 2.6563
105
A
B
C
Efficient
Frontier
Available portfolios
Risk
Fig A.
Np
A
B
107
Fig B
The indifference curves shows here are typical in that every point on each curve
has a higher expected return or a lower risk than other points on the curve. Also,
an investor would choose combination of risk and expected return on one curve
with equal indifference, but he would prefer combination of return and risk on
indifference curve A than on B because curve A offers higher returns for the same
degree or risk and less risk for the same amount of expected returns).
In Fig A, An investor would prefer a portfolio of investments on indifference
curve A to a portfolio on curve B, which in turn is preferable to a portfolio on
curve C.
12.6 RISK-RETURN RELATIONSHIP
The risk and return constitute the framework for taking investment decision.
Dealing with the return to be achieved requires estimate of the return on
investment over the time period. Risk denotes deviation of actual return from the
estimated return, This deviation of actual return from expected return may be on
either side. However investors are concerned with the downside risk. The risk
under consideration is made up of two parts.
1. Unsystematic risk
2. Systematic risk
1. Unsystematic risk is also known as diversifiable, unique, specific, residual and
non-market risk. It is caused by events such as:
i. Quality of management
ii. Location
iii.Nature of products
This part of risk is internal and is related to the firm and industry.
2. Systematic risk is also known as non-diversifiable, non-specific, general and
market risk. It is caused by events such as:
i. Inflation
ii. Economic problems
iii.Political problems
iv.War
v. Death of the president
108
This is also known as unavoidable risk and it is external to the firm and industry.
The risk and return tends to be positively related. Risk assures exogenous position
in risk-return function while return depends on risk level for its determination. It is
generally believed that there is consistently risk-return trade-off i.e. the greater the
risk accepted, the greater must be the potential return as reward for committing
ones funds to an uncertain outcome.
12.7 SUMMARY
Uncertainty means it is not known exactly what will happen in future and it cannot
be quantified, while risk means future happening can be assumed under
probability and the likelihood of future outcomes can be quantified. The risk of an
asset is expressed in terms of standard deviation. The mean of the probable return
gives the expected rate of return and the standard deviation measures the risk. The
expected return from a portfolio of two or more securities is equal to the weighted
average of the expected returns from the individual securities.
SELF REVIEW QUESTIONS
1) How do you ascertain the risk and return of a portfolio?
2) Write short notes on Covariance
3) How do you ascertain the optimal portfolio?
4) What is the necessity for portfolio diversification?
5) Write short notes on indifference curves.
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Drury C.
Akinsulire O.
Ravi M.K.
109
110
CONTENTS
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Classification of Risks
13.3 Assumptions of CAPM
13.4 Beta Factor
13.5 Security Market Line
13.6 Capital Market Line
13.7 Efficient Frontier
13.8 Limitations of CAPM
13.9 Arbitrage Pricing Model
13.10 Summary
13.11 Self Review Questions
13.1 INTRODUCTION
The Capital Asset Pricing Model was developed by three economists W.F Sharpe,
J.N Linter and Jack Treynor between 1965 and 11966 in an attempt to simplify the
assumption of portfolio theory as they relate to investment in securities. The
model is based on the portfolio theory developed by Harry Markowitz. It
emphasizes that the risk factor in portfolio theory is a combination of two risks i.e
systematic risk and unsystematic risk. And that the combination of both types of
risk provides total risk.
.: Total risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk
This model also suggests that a securitys return is directly related to its systematic
risk which cannot be neutralized through diversification. So, the total variance
(risk) is equal to market related variance plus companys specific variance. The
model employs beta coefficient (B).
A risk free security has a B of O, while the risk premium is also O. the market
portfolio has a B of 1 and a risk premium of ( Rm Rf ). A problem arises as
regards the risk premium if a security does not have a B of O or 1. this is what the
CAPM attempts to solve.
13.2 CLASSIFICATION OF RISKS
According to the CAPMs theorists, the risk associated with portfolio rate of
return can be decomposed into two:
i) Systematic risk
111
supply e.t.c. It has to do with the efficiency with which a firm conducts its
operations within the broader environment.
b) Financial Risk: This risk is associated with the financing activities of the firm.
It is associated with the capital structure of the firm. An ungeared company has no
financial risk. Financial risk will also arise due to short term liquidity problems,
shortage of working capital, bad debt e.t.c.
c) Default Risk: The default risk arises due to default in meeting the financial
obligations as and when due for payment.
13.3 ASSUMPTION OF CAPM
1. Investors are rational and risk averse.
2. Investors seek to maximize utility which is a function of risk and
expected return.
3. Risk is measured by the standard deviation of returns.
4. There is a linear relationship between the return obtained from an
individual security and the average rate of return from all securities in
market.
5. The stock market is efficient ( i.e security values reflect all known
information, which is available to all investors at no cost). No individual
investor dominates the market.
6. All investors can borrow and lend infinitely large sum of money at the
same risk free rate.
7. There is no taxation.
8. There are no transaction costs.
9. All investors view securities in the same way with respect to return, risk
and correlation with other securities. Investors expectations are
homogeneous.
10. The CAPM is a one period model. Though it is not useless in multi
period situation.
13.4 BETA FACTOR
CAPM states that an investor shall:
1. not be rewarded if he accepts alpha (unsystematic) risk because it is
avoidable
2. be rewarded if he undertakes beta (systematic) risk because it is
unavoidable.
113
= E(Ri) - Ri
E(Rm) - Rf
= nxy - x y
nx2 (x)2
where x =(Rm) Rf
y = (Ri) Rf
n = the number of periods data in the question
iii) where expected returns are known with probability (p)
Bi = p (Ri Ri) (Rm Rm)
p (Rm Rm)2
where,
Ri = Forecast return from security i
Ri = Expected return from security i
Rm = Forecast return from the market
Rm = Expected return from the market
P = Probability distribution
iv) where from formulae iii
114
Expected
Return
SML
E (Ri)
E(Rm)
Rf
Risk Premium
0.5
1.0
Np
Rm
Rf
CML
Rm - Rf
m
I1
I2
I3
D
C
Frontier
B Optimal portfolio
116
Efficient
Indifference curves
p
Fig A.
The above graph depicts efficient frontier and the different levels of indifference
curves for an investor. The individual investor will want to hold that portfolio of
securities that places him on the highest indifference curves, choosing from the set
of available portfolios.
A, B, C, and D define the boundary of all possible investments which are the
efficient proposals lying on the efficient frontier. The optimal portfolio is achieved
at a point where the indifference curve is at tangent to the efficient frontier.
13.8 LIMITATIONS OF CAPM
1 Beta is difficult to measure accurately for an individual company.
2 Beta values may be unstable overtime.
3 CAPM is a theoretically one period model. As one period model, it should be
used with caution for the appraisal of multi period projects.
4 There might be problems in determining the appropriate risk free rate of return.
5 In the real world, a perfect market does not exist and thus, calculating expected
return on market portfolio will not be visible.
6 The model only considers systematic risk. It assumes that investors always hold
balanced portfolio which eliminate unsystematic risk.
7 There are possibilities of conflicts in the decision reached with WACC.
8 In practice, the cost of insolvency cannot be ignored. Also, the possibility of
insolvency is related to a firms total risk rather than its systematic risk.
a set of individual macro economic factors and the risk premium associated
WITH EACH OF those macro economic factors.
In the case of APM, the expected return on a particular investment is given by:
E(Ri) = Rf + Bfi (Rfi Rf) + BFL (RF2 RF) + ......BFN(RFN RF)
Where f1 and f2 e.t.c individual macro economic factor
n = the number of identified factors.
A major problem with the use of APM is that the identity of those macro
economic factors is unclear.
13.10
SUMMARY
Markowitz mean variance model suggests that investors are basically concerned
with risk and return relating to the investment and company diversification of
portfolio, the trade off is possible between risk and return.
The optimal investment is achieved at a point where the indifference curve of an
investor is at tangent to the efficient factor.
13.11
1
2
3
4
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Drury C.
Akinsulire O.
Ravi M.K.
118
119
CONTENTS
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
Introduction
Markowitz Mean Variance Frontier
Concept of Efficient Frontier
Separation Theorem
CAPM And APM: The Application
Summary
Self Review Questions
14.1 INTRODUCTION
In 1952, Harry Markowitz in an article drew attention to a general and common
practice of portfolio diversification. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) concentrates
on portfolio management which is concerned with efficient management of
investment in the securities.
A portfolio is the collection of several securities on behalf of an investor. Portfolio
management deals with the process of selection of securities from the number of
opportunities available with different expected returns and carrying different levels
of risk and the selection of securities is made with a view to provide the investors
the maximum yield for a given level of risk or ensure minimized risk for a given
level of returns.
14.2 MARKOWITZ MEAN VARIANCE MODEL
According to Harry Markowitz, investors are mainly concerned with two
properties of an asset that is, risk and return. Though, it is possible to trade off
between risk and return through diversification. By this theory, the risk of
individual asset is not really important; what is very important is the contribution
of each individual asset to the investors total risk. For selecting the right portfolio
from different assets, he developed Mean Variance Analysis.
The portfolio selection problem can be divided into two stages:
Calculate the mean variance of the efficient portfolios.
Select one such portfolio.
The idea behind the mean variance analysis is to ascertain the expected return
and risk of portfolios for comparison. The mean of the forecast value of returns is
the expected returns while the variance or standard deviation represents the risk.
As we know:
120
Np = WA(RA) + WB(RB)
Variance = p2 = WA2 A2 + WB A2 + 2 WA WB RAB A B
where, WA = Proportion of funds invested in A
WB = Proportion of funds invested in B
A = Standard deviation of A
B = Standard deviation of B
RA = Forecast returns of A
RB = Forecast returns of B
rAB = Correlation co-efficient
Np = Expected returns on the portfolio
14.3 CONCEPT OF EFFICIENT FRONTIER
In practice, a rational investor will seek to minimize risk and maximize return. He
will therefore prefer the project having the higher return at the same level of risk
with another and where two securities have the same return, he will select the one
with the lower risk.
Graphically,
Return
Efficient Frontier
D
A
E
Risk
0
Investment A will be preferred to investment E because it has the lower level of
risk at the same level of return with investment E. Security D will be preferred to
security E because it has the same level of risk with E but higher return. Both
securities A and D dominate security e and where all shareholders o investors
prefer a particular security based on the same criterion or criteria, the preferred
security is said to have a stochastic dominance over the less preferred security.
The choice between security A and security D depends on the attitude of the
investors in that there is no clear choice not only between A and D but also all
securities that fall along the curve that is known as the efficient frontier. So, a risk
taker will prefer security D which has the higher return and higher risk. A risk
averse investor will select A which has both lower risk return to security D.
14.4 SEPERATION THEOREM
121
The attitude of individual investors towards bearing risk affects only the amount
that is loaned or borrowed. It does not affect the optimal portfolio of risky assets.
Investors would select portfolio of risky assets no mater what the nature of their
indifference curves is. The reason is that when a risk free security exists, and
borrowing and lending are possible at the rate, the market portfolio dominates all
others. As long as they can freely borrow and lend at the risk free rate, two
investors with very different preferences will both choose portfolio of risky assets.
Thus, the individual utility preferences are independent of or separate from the
optimal portfolio of risky assets.
This condition is known as the separation theorem. It states that the determination
of an optimal portfolio of risky assets is independent of the individuals risk
preferences. Such a determination depends only on the expected returns and
standard deviations for the various possible portfolios of risky assets.
In essence, the individuals approach to investing is in two phase:
1. Determination of an optimal portfolio of risky assets.
2. Determination of the most desirable combinations of the risk free security
and the portfolio.
14.5 APPLICATION OF CAPM AND APM
Recalling the Capital Asset Pricing Model
E(Ri) = Rf + Bi (Rm Rf)
Illustration 14.1
Oreoluwa ltd an investment company has invested in equity shares of a chip
company.
1. A portfolio with beta greater than one is more volatile than the market and
will have a higher return than the market.
2. A portfolio with beta less than one is not as risky as the market and will
have a lower return than the market.
3. A portfolio with beta equal to one has the same risk with the market and
will have the same return with the market.
4. A portfolio with beta equal to zero is risk free.
Asset Beta
An asset beta reflects a companys business risk. It is the weighted average beta of
equity and beta of debt including any relevant tax effects. The difference between
a companys asset beta and equity beta reflects the financial risk. Only systematic
risk cannot be diversified away is considered in an asset beta.
Thus:
a = e (MVe)
+ d [MVd (1+t)]
MVe + MVd (1-t) MVe + MVd (1-t)
:. a = a + (a d) MVd (1-t)
MVe
where E = Beta of Equity
a = Asset of beta
d = Beta of debt
MVe = Market value of debt (ex-int)
MVe = Market value of equity (ex-div)
t = Corporation tax rate
Illustration 14.2
The most recent balance sheet of Olekoko Plc shows the following:
N
Net Assets
67,500
Represented by:
Ordinary shares of 50k
52,500
10% debentures
15,000
67,500
123
The beta of the companys asset is 0.85 while that of the debt is 0.20. Return on
government bond is currently 12% while the return on the market securities is
17%. The ordinary shares are currently quoted at N2.10 per share while the market
value of the debentures is 89%. Using the capital asset pricing model, determine
the companys appropriate cost of capital assuming the rate of company tax is
30%.
Solutions
i. Calculation of No of shares
Number of shares = N52,500 = 105,000 shares
50k
ii. Total market value of equity
100,000 x N2.10 = N220,500
iii.Total market value of debt
N15,000 x 89 = N13,350
100
iv.Calculation of the beta of equity
e = a + (a d) MVd (1 t)
MVe
Be = 0.85 (0.85 0.20) 13,350 (1 0.30)
220,500
= 0.85 (0.65) 13,350 (0.70) = 0.8775
220,500
v. Calculation of the cost of equity
E(Ri) = Rf + Bi (Rm Rf)
= 12 + 0.8775 (17 12)
= 12 + 0.8775 (5)
= 12 + 4.39 = 16.39%
vi.Calculation of cost of debt
Kd = I (1 t) = 10 (1 0.3)
MVd
89
= 10(0.7) = 7.87%
89
vii. Calculation of the companys cost of capital (WACC)
MIV COST HASH TOTAL
EQUITY 220,500 16.39 36,140
124
DEBT
13,350
233,850
7.87
1,051
37,191
= 16%
Characteristic Line
A line that best fits the points representing the returns on the assets and the market
is called characteristic line. The slope of the line is the beta of the asset which
measures the risk of a security relative to the market. The greater the beta coefficient value, the greater the slope of the characteristic line and the greater the
systematic risk for an individual security.
Excess of return
On stock over risk
Free rate (Ri Rf)
characteristic line
Beta ()
Excess A return on market
portfolio
Alpha ()
The characteristic line equation for the individual security is given below:
(Ri Rf) = : i (Rm Rf)
Illustration 14.3
The ratios of return on the security of company X and market portfolio for 10
periods are given below:
Period
Return of X (%)
Return on Market
Portfolio
1
20
22
2
22
20
3
25
18
4
21
16
125
5
6
7
8
9
10
18
-5
17
19
-7
20
20
8
-6
5
6
11
(RM RM)2
x = COVx m
2m
Covxm = (RX-RX)(RM-RM)
n-1
2m = (RM-RM)2
n-1
= 706
9
= 357
9
= 39.67
= 78.44
x = 39.67 = 0.506
78.44
ii. From the linear equation
Y = + x
15 = = 0.506 (12)
= 8.928%
:. Characteristics line of X = + (Rm)
126
(Rm Rm)2
100
64
36
16
64
16
324
49
36
706
(RX-RX)(RM-RM)
= 8.928 + 0.506Rm
Arbitrage Pricing Model (APM)
Recalling the Arbitrage Pricing Model
E(Ri) = Rf + Bfi (Rfi Rf) + BFL (RF2 RF) + ......BFN(RFN RF)
Where f1, f2 and fn represent the individual macro economic factors which may
include:
Changes in the level of industrial production in the economy
Changes in the shape of the yield curve
Changes in the default risk premium
Changes in the inflation rate
Changes in the real interest rate
Level of personal consumption
Level of money supply in the economy
Illustration 14.4
As an investment manager, you are given the following information:
Factors
Market
Interest rate
Yield spread
Stock
A
B
C
Required:
a) Calculate the expected return for each of the three stocks
b) Consider a portfolio with equal investment in stocks A, B and C
i) what are the factor risk exposures for the portfolio?
ii) what is the portfolios expected return?
Solution
127
14.6 SUMMARY
Markowitz mean variance model suggests that investors are basically concerned
with risk and return relating to the investment and by diversification of portfolio,
the trade off is possible between the risk and return.
Investors prefer portfolios on the efficient frontier with least possible risk to earn
expected rate of return.
14.7 SELF REVIEW QUESTIONS
1)
2)
3)
4)
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Akinsulire O.
Ravi M.K.
128
129
CONTENTS
15.1
Introduction
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.1 INTRODUCTION
Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) can be defined as having three
characteristics:
Firms are likely to be unquoted
Ownership of the business is restricted tom a few individual
They are not micro business that are normally regarded as those very small
business that act as a medium for self employment of the owners
The economy of any country depends on the contributions of all sectors of the
economy particularly the small and medium scale enterprises.
15.2 FEATURES OF SMALL SCALE INDUSTRIES
1. They usually have low set up cost.
2. They rely on local raw materials.
3. Employment operation.
4. They accelerate rural development and contribution to stemming urban
migration and problems of congestion in large cities.
130
1. Owner financing
2. Loans
3. Trade credit
131
4. Equity financing
5. venture capital
6. Leasing
7. Factoring
Owner Financing: This comes in the form of owners contribution in the case of a
sole proprietor. This money is needed as pointed out to provide working capital to
acquire fixed assets and to pay for promotional expenses. This is the same as
equity financing.
15.5 GOVERNMENT MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE STATUS OF
SMIs
The government has introduced schemes and policies to encourage more lending
to small firms and special sectors of the economy and these are:
Central Bank of Nigeria guidelines on sectoral allocation of loans and
advances.
The loan scheme of National Directorate of Employment.
The Agricultural Credit Guarantee Schemes.
Establishment of Development Banks such as BOI and NACRDB.
Establishment of SMEDAN.
Establishment of small and medium scale equity investment scheme.
Establishment of ADB Export stimulation fund scheme, IDA and IFC.
INVESTMENT SCHEME
132
The Bankers Committee on December 21, 1999,at its 264 th meeting resolved that
all banks in Nigeria should set aside 10% of their profit before tax for equity
investments in small and medium industries.
Consequently, the scheme SMIEIS was launched and on August 2001, the Small
and medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria SMEDAN was
established to address the problems associated with the SMEs.
THE OBJECTIVES
The objectives of the SMIEIS scheme among others are to:
Facilitate the flow of funds for the establishment of new Small and
medium Industries (SMI) projects reactivation, expansion and
modernization or restructuring of on going projects.
Stimulate economic growth, develop local technology and generate
employment for capable and suitable Nigerians.
Eliminate the burden of interest and other financial charges for the
entrepreneurs.
Provide financial advisory, technical and managerial support to the
entrepreneurs.
REFERENCES
Adelaja B.O Financing Small and Medium Enterprises Under SMIEIS:
Operators Perspective, ( CBN Publication, Lagos), 2003
Ravi M.K.
133
CONTENTS
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
16.7
16.8
16.9
16.10
Introduction
Foreign Exchange Management
Factors Affecting Fluctuations in Exchange Rates
Methods of Hedging Against Foreign Currency Risk
Foreign Exchange Market Participants
Exchange Rate
Theories of Foreign Exchange Determination
Currency Forecasting
Exchange Risk
Foreign Exchange Management Techniques
16.1
INTRODUCTION
Due to the fact that all countries are not equally endowed with the different natural
resources, no country is self-sufficient in its demand and supply of goods and
services and that is why factors of production such as labour and capital are seen
moving freely across the national frontiers. All the countries trade in goods and
services, borrow and lend, invest and accept investments with other countries with
nominal or full control to govern the currency flow and trade. Since different
countries have their own currencies, with different purchasing power, the
settlement of payments cannot be made with the currency of any one country. It is
from this that the concept of foreign exchange rate emerges.
16.2
It is clear that no country can produce all that she needs. Countries individually,
produce such goods in which such a country has comparative advantage and sells
those goods to other countries while also buying the goods the other countries
have comparative advantage in.
Although exchange rate fluctuation may result in a gain (positive) or a loss
(adverse). It is often considered undesirable because it introduces an element of
134
uncertainty. Because of the risk involved, it can be said that foreign exchange
management imposes can extra burden on a companys finance manager.
Meanwhile the following should be considered:
a)
Balance of Trade
b)
Invisible Balance
c)
Balance of Payment on current account.
Balance of Trade
Visible goods are goods that have physical existence such as cars, machinery
which are traded and exchanged in international trade. When a country produces
such goods and sells them abroad they are referred to as visible export. When she
buys such goods abroad for home consumption it is known as visible imports. The
difference in the value of visible exports and visible imports is known as the
balance of trade and it may be favourable or unfavourable.
Invisible Balance
Countries also buy and sell services such as banking services, shipping services
etc. When a country sells or renders such services to another country such
transactions is called invisible exports, when the opposite is the case, i.e. services
are provided for the country by other countries, they are called invisible imports
and the difference between invisible imports and invisible items which may either
be favourable or unfavourable for any particular year.
The Balance of Payment on Current Account
This is the record of all transactions between one country and the rest of the world,
for all visible goods and invisible services in the course of the year. When the
total payments made for both visible goods and invisible services in the course of
one year exceed the total receipt from visible and invisible services. The balance
of payments on current account is said to be unfavourable. A country in this
position is said to experience a deficit on the account. In a reversed case, the
balance of payment is favourable.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
16.4
1)
2)
3)
4)
i)
ii)
iii)
repaying the loan with interest out of the eventual foreign currency
receipts
5)
6)
Netting: This is a technique which involves the head office and its foreign
subsidiary netting off the intra-organizational debts due at the end of each
period. Only the balance exposed to currency risk needs to be hedged.
7)
Pricing Policy:
A company can anticipate adverse exchange rate
movements by building an extra profit margin into the selling price to act
as a cushion in the event that exchange rates do move adversely.
Protection clause is another aspect of pricing policy.
8)
16.5
1)
Arbitrageurs
The seek to earn risks-free profits by taking advantage of differences in
exchange rates arising countries. They buy currencies that are under
priced at one centre and simultaneously sell the same set of currencies at
the centres where they are overpriced, thereby making a risk free arbitrage
profit.
2)
Speculators
The reason for their action is profit making. They trade in foreign
currencies by profiting from the exchange rate fluctuations. They take
risks in the hope of making profits by buying a particular currency when
the price is low and selling the same currency when the price is high.
3)
Hedgers
These are mainly multinational companies. They operate in several
countries and their assets and liabilities are designated in foreign
currencies. The foreign exchange rate fluctuation can cause diminution in
the home currency value of their assets and liabilities.
16.6
Exchange Rate
137
1)
This theorem predicts that the exchange value of foreign currency depends on the
relative purchasing power of each currency in its own country and that spot
exchange rates will vary over time according to relative price changes. It follows
therefore that if the rate of inflation of country.
A is greater than the rate of inflation in country
B, the rate of exchange of currency of country
138
A will fall against the currency of Country B. The exact relative purchasing power
purity relationship is expressed as follows.
S1 So = Pn Pf
So
1 + Pf
where So = Current (direct quote) spot rate
Si = Expected future (direct quote) spot rate at time 1
Pn = Inflation rate of home country
Pf = Inflation rate of foreign country
The above formula can be simplified
Si= 1 + Pn
So
1 + Pf
Illustration 16.1
It is expected the inflation rates in Nigeria and US are 6% and 3% respectively.
The present spot rate of 1 US $ is N45.36. What will be the expected spot rate in
twelve months time.
S1 = 1 + Pn
So
1 + Pf
S1 = 1 + 0.06
45.36
1 + 0.03
S1 x 1.03 = 45.36 x 1.06
S1 = 48.0816
= N46.68
1.03
Fisher Effect
The term fisher effect is used in looking at the relationship between interest rates
and expected rates of inflation. The rate of interest can be seen as made up of two
parts. The real required rate of return plus a premium for inflation. The real and
nominal interest rates are connected by Fisher Effect as follows:
(1 + R) (1 + 1) = (1 + M)
when R = Real interest rate
I = Expected rate of inflation
M = Market (nominal) interest rate
Then,
(1 + R) = (1 + M)
(1 + I)
139
= 1 + Pn
1 + Pf
in if
1 + if
2)
140
This theorem states that the differential between the forward exchange rate and the
spot exchange rate is equal to the differential between the foreign and domestic
interest rates. Its condition is that the forward premium of discount for a currency
quoted in terms of another currency is approximately equal to the difference in
interest rates prevailing between the two countries.
So,
where,
F So
So
= in if
1 + if
simply,
F
So
in in
1 + it
Illustration 16.3
The current bank interest rate of U.S. and Nigeria are 4.5% and 8.5% respectively.
The present spot market rate of exchange in 1 US $ is N45.36. What would be the
twelve month forward rate?
F
So
in in
1 + it
F
1 + 0.085
45.36 1 + 0.045
F (1.045) = 45.36 x 1.085
F = 49.2156/1.045 = N47.096
16.8
CURRENCY FORECASTING
a)
b)
141
ii.
16.9
EXCHANGE RISK
This is the variability of a firms value that is due to uncertain exchange rate.
Currency Exposure to Risk
1)
2)
Economic Exposure: Risk that arises from changes in real exchange rate.
It is the extent to which the value of a firm will change due to exchange rate
movement.
3)
16.10
1.
Currency Options: This gives the holder the right but not the obligation to
sell (put) or buy (call) the contract currency at a set price and at a given
date.
2.
3.
4.
142
5)
6)
REFERENCES
Aborode R.
Akinsulire O.
Ravi M.K.
143