How to Build an Effective

Trading System
(and Build Confidence that It Will Be Profitable)

Howard Bandy
NAAIM 2008

Copyright 2008 by Howard Bandy. Distribution rights are granted to NAAIM

1
 Disclaimer
This is an educational presentation
The purpose is to explain the authors
method for developing trading systems
This is not a trading system presentation
Neither the author and presenter, Howard
Bandy, nor the conference organizer,
NAAIM, is liable for losses resulting from
application of techniques described in this
presentation
2
 The Problem

The Solution

Practical Implementation

3
 The Problem

Will the newly developed trading system

be profitable when traded?

How confident can we be?

4
 The Solution
In a word
Practice
In more detail
Tomorrow is out-of-sample
Study simulated out-of-sample trades made by
the system
Every transition from in-sample to out-of-sample
increases our confidence
If the out-of-sample results are satisfactory, trade
the system
5
 Our Premises
Mechanical systems
Markets are somewhat inefficient
We can detect patterns in historical data
that precede profitable opportunities
Those patterns persist long enough to
make profitable trades

6
 Lord Kelvin - 1891
When you can measure what you are
speaking about, and express it in
numbers, you know something about it;
but when you cannot measure it, when
you cannot express it in numbers, your
knowledge is of a meager and
unsatisfactory kind

7
 Trading System Development
1. Define the objective function
2. Decide what to trade and how to trade it
3. Design the trading system
4. Determine the in-sample period
5. Determine the out-of-sample period
6. Decide what to optimize
7. Perform walk forward runs
8. Evaluate out-of-sample results
9. Trade the system
10. Monitor the results
8
Defining Best Objective Function
Psychology of trading experts have it
backwards
Cognitive dissonance
Start by identifying what is important to
you
Create an objective function that
incorporates those features
Use this to compare alternative systems
9
Defining Best Objective Function
A function that gives single-valued score
A measure of the system
Incorporates important features
Score is reported for every test run
Will be used during walk forward
You select the objective function
Take your time and get it right
Dont start designing and testing without it
10
 What is Important?
Drawdown Percent winners
Annual percentage Win to loss ratio
gain Recovery
Holding period Thoughts from the
Trading frequency audience
Exposure
Expectancy
Equity smoothness

11
 Drawdown
In a single trade, it is the maximum amount of
loss at any time, relative to the best price
In a system, it is the maximum decline in the
accounts equity at any time, measured from
maximum equity up to that point
Drawdown is probably the single most important
metric excessive drawdown is the most
common reason traders stop using a system
Given a smooth equity curve, add leverage as
desired to the point where drawdown becomes
limiting 12
 Expectancy
Expectancy is the amount or percentage that is
gained or lost by the average trade
Expectancy = % winners * average profit per win
+ % losers * average loss per loss
Expectancy must be positive
No money management scheme can turn a
system with negative expectancy into a winning
system
Poor money management can turn any system
into a losing system
13
 Objective Function Choices
Net Profit
Often the default
Usually a poor choice

Reward equity growth and equity

smoothness
Penalize drawdowns
Examples:
K-ratio CAR/MDD
Ulcer Performance Index RAR/MDD
14
 Good Objectives
Specific; Measurable; Realistic

My goal is to make a 15% annual profit

trading common stocks, control
drawdowns, cherry-pick trades, hold about
one week, and be tradable without
interfering with my day job.

15
 Translated
Compound Annual Return > 15%
Maximum System Drawdown < 15%
Exposure ~ 30%
Holding 3 to 7 days
Use end-of-day data
Evaluate in the evening
Trade Market on Open

16
 Verify Your Objective Function
Choose metrics that best fit your trading style
and personality
Run some optimizations
Plot the equity curves of several variations
Sort the results into order by ObFn
You should prefer them in order by ObFn
If not, modify the objective function until they
are ranked correctly
Will be used during walk forward
17
 Typical Equity Curves

Buy and Hold Breakout

Reversal Cherry Pick

18
 Data and Issues
Historical data for backtesting
Current data for trading
Liquidity
Price reasonable
Data cleanliness
Bad quotes
Unadjusted splits, distributions, restatements

Visual inspection

Consistency
19
 About Financial Data
It is non-stationary
Cannot be made stationary
Autocorrelation is very weak

Data = trends + cycles + patterns + noise

Trading system is designed to recognize
some signal portion
Low signal to noise ratio
Noise is everything the system does not
model 20
 How to Trade
End-of-day, intraday
MOO, MOC, limit orders, stops

Single issues
Portfolios

Position size
Risk management
21
 Models and Modeling
1. Build a model 2. Validate that the
Trial and error model represents
Deduction signal, not noise
(reasoning) (out-of-sample
Induction (analysis of testing)
data)
3. Monitor to determine
Loop of
whether the model
Conjecture
Experiment
and the underlying
Observe are in sync
Modify (statistical tests)
22
 Models and Reality
Our trading models are static
The reality we are trying to model is
dynamic
Our hope:
We can build a model of the data,
That recognizes some inefficiency,

And use that model to trade profitably,

As long as the model and reality stay in sync.

23
 What to Model
Something Easy

Sector ETFs
Sector Mutual Funds
Indices
Industry Monitor ID Groups
Custom Indices (AddToComposite)
Beware survivor bias
24
 Survivor Bias
Companies that fail disappear
Mergers and acquisitions change the
characteristics of companies
Companies currently in a list, group, fund,
industry, or index may not have always
been there
Others that used to be members may be
missing
25
 What to Trade
Something Profitable and Liquid

Stocks, funds, ETFs, futures

Single issue
Portfolio
Model one thing trade another

26
 Liquidity
$100M per day
500 issues
300 of the S&P500

$0.01 $0.02 spread

Very few gaps on 1 minute chart

$20M per day

1500 issues
$0.01 - $0.04 spread

27
50 Most Liquid Issues

Daily average dollar volume for 20 days in early 2008

28
 Profitability
Model XLF
Run ZigZag.afl to see potential
Trade components
Use WatchList XLFComponents
Run XLFComponents.afl to see potential

XLF is easier to model

The components are more profitable to
trade
29
XLF ZigZag

30
XLFComponents.afl

31
Trading XLF Components

32
 Creating a system
A model is a combination of:
One or more entry methods
One or more exit methods

A trading system is a combination of:

One or more models
One or more data series

that, together, give buy and sell signals for

some tradable issue or portfolio.
33
 Types of Systems
Trend following Every trade is a trend-
Breakout following trade while
Moving average you are in it
Mean reversion
Pattern
Seasonality
Cycle
Others?

34
 Entries
Signals
Indicators

Patterns

Seasonality

Cycles

Setups
Filters
Random for comparison
35
 Exits
Signals Indicators, patterns, seasonality,
cycles
Same as entry other direction
Same logic different parameter values

Different logic

Timed holding period

Profit target
Trailing stop
Maximum loss stop 36
 Indicator Exits
Indicators introduce lag
No need to be symmetric
Rises look different than falls

37
 Stops are Not Reasons to Sell
Best exits come from signals and
indicators
Mean reversion (short holding periods)
profit targets and timed holding periods
Trend following (longer holding periods)
trailing stops
Maximum loss stop is for emergency
protection only
Stops hurt systems 38
 Short Holding Periods
Advantages:
Drawdown increases as square root of
holding period
Allows selective trading

Gives many trading opportunities

Tighter distribution of trade results

More data points for statistics

39
 Short Holding Periods
Disadvantages:
Increased trading
Higher commissions

Tax consequences

Fund restrictions

Portfolio restrictions

40
 Terminal Relative Wealth
The value of a trading account after some
time, expressed as a ratio to its starting
value
Depends on exactly two numbers:
n
TRW = (1+e)
e == expectancy as a decimal fraction
n == number of trades
(Drawdowns may vary considerably)

41
Code Signals First, Then Stops
Begin by coding your entry
If you use more than one entry, test each
separately
Add your exit using logic appropriate for
the type of system
If you use more than one exit, test each
separately
Add stops only for protection
42
 Reality Check

Be certain the system is tradable

Allthe data is available when you need it
There is enough time to compute signals

Assumptions about liquidity and slippage are

realistic
No future leak

43
 Brains? Or Bull Market?
Beware of long-only systems in strong bull
markets
Safeguards:
Look for profitable shorts
Look at periods or tickers when price is flat or falling

44
 Simulated Trading
An automated series of:
1. Evaluate alternatives in-sample
2. Select the best alternative
3. Simulate trading out-of-sample
Move forward in time and repeat steps
1, 2, and 3
If out-of-sample results are satisfactory,
trade the system
45
 In-Sample
In-sample the period of time (and the
data and trades associated with it) where
the alternatives of logic and parameter
values are evaluated
In-sample results are always good
In-sample results have no value in
estimating the future performance of the
system
46
 Out-of-Sample
Out-of-sample the period of time (and
the data and trades associated with it)
where the trading system is tested on data
it has never seen before
Immediately follows the in-sample period
Caution making decisions based on out-
of-sample data results in that data
becoming part of the in-sample data
47
In-sample Out-of-sample

48
 In-sample Period Length
How long should the in-sample period be?
Opinions include:
A long time period
Pro: Include many different conditions
Con: Cannot accurately model everything
A short time period
Pro: Stay synchronized with current conditions
Con: Learn noise instead of signal
Experiment
My recommendation as short as practical 49
 Out-of-Sample Period Length
As long as the model and the market
remain in sync
Unrelated to length of in-sample period

50
 Optimization
A search for the best values for logic and
parameters
Any time two or more alternatives are
considered, you might as well consider
thousands
Rough runs to determine ranges
Thorough runs to locate maxima

51
Which Way is Up?

The Model

52
 How to Optimize
One dimension at time
Takes less time
Can get stuck

Finds local maxima

Multiple dimensions
Exhaustive search
Long runs
Detect interactions and global maxima

Use preliminary runs to select the range 53

 Reoptimization
Length of out-of-sample period determines
reoptimization schedule
You may reoptimize at any time

54
 Degrees of Freedom
Every data point contributes one degree of
freedom
Every alternative considered uses up one
degree of freedom
Curve-fit or over-fit means there are no
degrees of freedom left over

55
 Fit the Signal
5 data points 2 coefficients three residual degrees of freedom

Y = a + b*x

56
 Fit the Noise Curve-fit
5 data points 5 coefficients zero residual degrees of freedom

Y = a + b*x + c*x2 + d*x3 + e*x4

57
 Walk Forward
A sequence of steps, each consisting of
optimizing over an in-sample period and
testing over an out-of-sample period
Automatically, advancing dates each step:
Optimize in-sample
Choose best

Test out-of-sample

Accumulate out-of-sample results

Best chosen strictly by objective function
58
The Walk Forward Process

59
Decision to Trade

60
 Validation
Evaluate out-of-sample results
Decide whether to trade the system or not

Out-of-sample results indicate how the

system will react to various conditions
In-sample results have no value in
determining the likely profitability of the
system
61
 Trading
Next Day Open (NDO)
Updatedata after close
Compute signals in evening

Trade on Close of signal bar

Real time data feed
Compute price ahead

Anticipate signals

62
 Monitor Results
Compare real time results with out-of-
sample test results
All systems fail
Use statistical tests to determine if the
system is broken
Use statistical process control techniques,
if possible
When to reoptimize
63
 5 Wins in a Row Now What?
After a long string of winning trades, do
you change anything?

Probably not
Your system and the market are in sync
This is just what you hoped for, stay with it

Do not penalize good results

64
4 Losses in a Row Now What?
Review the trade statistics from your out-
of-sample runs.
What is the typical ratio of winning trades
to losing trades?
Is this unusual?
Use the runs test for a statistical answer
Or use the binomial distribution

65
 The Binomial Distribution
Assume your out-of-sample shows 60%
winners, 40% losers
The probability of any trade being a loser is
0.40
The probability of two successive losers is
0.40 * 0.40 = 0.16 Expect this regularly
Three losers in a row = 0.064 Start to worry
Four losers in a row = 0.0256 It is broken
66
 Practical
Implementation

67
 Everything You Need
Everything you need is available today

AmiBroker trading system development

platform
Any end-of-day and most real-time data
sources
Quotes Plus is a good data vendor

68
 Trading System Development
1. Define the objective function
2. Decide what to trade and how to trade it
3. Design the trading system
4. Determine the in-sample period
5. Determine the out-of-sample period
6. Decide what to optimize
7. Perform walk forward runs
8. Evaluate out-of-sample results
9. Trade the system
10. Monitor the results
69
 Metrics Available
Search the AmiBroker Users Guide for getperformancestats

10000.00 "InitialCapital 13 "WinnersQty"

16925.16 "EndingCapital 56.52 "WinnersPercent"
6925.16 "NetProfit 10888.27 "WinnersTotalProfit"
837.56 "WinnersAvgProfit"
69.25 "NetProfitPercent" 6.51 "WinnersAvgProfitPercent"
16.91 "ExposurePercent" 6.00 "WinnersAvgBarsHeld"
409.52 "NetRAR" 4 "WinnersMaxConsecutive"
24.00 "CAR" 3254.77 "WinnersLargestWin"
6 "WinnersLargestWinBars"
141.90 "RAR"

23 "AllQty"
100.00 "AllPercent"
Typical Metric
301.09 "AllAvgProfitLoss"
value name
2.57 "AllAvgProfitLossPercent"
5.52 "AllAvgBarsHeld"
70
 Metrics Available
10 "LosersQty" -1707.12 "MaxTradeDrawdown
43.48 "LosersPercent" -11.66 "MaxTradeDrawdownPercent"
-3963.11 "LosersTotalLoss" -2071.76 "MaxSystemDrawdown"
-396.31 "LosersAvgLoss" -13.80 "MaxSystemDrawdownPercent"
-2.55 "LosersAvgLossPercent" 3.34 "RecoveryFactor"
4.90 "LosersAvgBarsHeld" , 1.74 "CAR/MDD"
2 "LosersMaxConsecutive" 10.28 "RAR/MDD"
-1210.84 "LosersLargestLoss" 2.75 "ProfitFactor"
4 "LosersLargestLossBar" 2.11 "PayoffRatio
883.56 "StandardError
3.39 "RRR
5.37 "UlcerIndex"
3.46 "UlcerPerformanceIndex"
2.31 "SharpeRatio
0.0967 "KRatio" 71
 Buy on Open of Next Bar

SetTradeDelays(1,1,1,1);
BuyPrice = Open;

Sometimes called Next Day Open (NDO)

Normal when using end-of-day data,
Processing in the evening,
Trading market on open
72
 Buy on Close of Current Bar

SetTradeDelays(0,0,0,0);
BuyPrice = Close;

Often the best entry

Must anticipate the signal

73
 Designing Entries

Start with an indicator

Pickan entry method
Hold 2 days
--- or ---
Start with desirable result
Identifygood entry points
Look for leading indicators

74
 Lag
Lag makes entries late
Low lag indicators:
AMA

ZeroLag MACD
Regression

Zero lag indicators:

Patterns

Statistics

Seasonality
75
 Be Wary of In-sample Results
The next few slides illustrate the in-sample
and out-of-sample results of several
systems
It is impossible to tell whether results are
in-sample or out-of-sample without
performing the validation yourself

76
System 1 In-Sample

77
System 1 Out-Of-Sample

78
System 2 In-Sample

79
System 2 Out-Of-Sample

80
System 3 In-Sample

81
System 3 Out-Of-Sample

(CMO Oscillator)

82
An Optimization Example

Search for the

best values for
these three
variables

83
Equity Curve Before

Backtest using default values

84
Optimization Settings

To begin, Click Optimize

85
Optimization Results

Three variables

Sorted by Objective Function 86

Optimal Values Entered

87
Equity Curve After

This is In-Sample, and it looks good

88
Settings to Test OOS

Set to date later

89
Equity Curve Out-Of-Sample
2005 and 2006 are Out-
Of-Sample, and look
good

90
 Walk Forward Example

AmiBroker has native walk forward testing

from Version 5.05

91
Install Plot InSample OOS.afl
Copy to AmiBroker\Formulas\Custom

92
Select the System to Test
Automatic Analysis > Pick as usual

93
Note Optimization Statements

94
 Settings

Settings
Walk Forward
Set Dates
Select Objective
OK

95
Start Walk Forward Run
Optimize
Walk Forward

96
Results Window

97
 Two Tabs
Minimize Optimizing window to reveal these

98
 Walk Forward Tab
Displays in-sample and out-of-sample results for each step
Best values for parms
Based on RAR/MDD

99
Chart Tab

100
I.S. and O.O.S. Equity Curves

101
 Just for NAAIM

A system using weekly data

102
 ETF Selection Example
Nine S&P Sector ETFs
Weekly data Hold 1 to 3 sectors
Compute signals after Fridays close
Trade Mondays open
Two methods in one system
Trendfollowing
Mean reversion

6 mo in-sample, 6 mo out-of-sample
103
ETF Selection Code
Optimize:

Number to hold

Three Variables

104
ETF Selection Walk forward

105
EFT Selection Equity Curves
In-sample
Out-of-sample results equity curve
73% gain in 4.5 years
62% exposed
21% annualized (RAR)
~30 day holding period

Out-of-sample
equity curve

106
How to Build an Effective
Trading System
(and Build Confidence that It Will Be Profitable)

107
 Trading System Development
1. Define the objective function
2. Decide what to trade and how to trade it
3. Design the trading system
4. Determine the in-sample period
5. Determine the out-of-sample period
6. Decide what to optimize
7. Perform walk forward runs
8. Evaluate out-of-sample results
9. Trade the system
10. Monitor the results
108
Questions and Comments

109
Quantitative Trading Systems
Expands on topics
presented today
Subtitled Practical
Methods for Design,
Testing, and
Validation
Published in 2007
Very well received
Shipped to over 35
countries
110
 Contact Information
To discuss or schedule a seminar,
workshop, custom programming, or
consulting:

Dr. Howard B. Bandy

(520) 705-1239 (cell)
[email protected]

111
 Resources
AmiBroker www.amibroker.com
Quotes Plus www.quotes-plus.com
Quantitative Trading Systems
www.quantitativetradingsystems.com

www.quantitativetradingsystems.com/resources

112
The End

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