Additional Mathematics

Project work 2009 2/2010

Theory of probability

NAME : CHARLENE ANDREA

SCHOOL : SMK.ST JOHN TUARAN

FORM : 5UM

NO.IC :930519-12-5186

TEACHER ‘S NAME :MDM.NOR AZWATI MAT NAWI

Contents
CONTENTS

PART 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. PART 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Part 5…………………………………

Part 1
Introduction
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena.
[1]
 The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events:
mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be
single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin
toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will
exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative
mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit
theorem.

As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities

that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to
descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical
mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical
phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.

Probaility history

The mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of

chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in
the seventeenth century (for example the "problem of points"). Christiaan Huygens published a book
on the subject in 1657.[2]

Initially, probability theory mainly considered discrete events, and its methods were

mainly combinatorial. Eventually, analytical considerations compelled the incorporation
of continuous variables into the theory.

This culminated in modern probability theory, the foundations of which were laid by Andrey
Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Kolmogorov combined the notion of sample space, introduced by Richard
von Mises, and measure theory and presented his axiom system for probability theory in 1933. Fairly
quickly this became the undisputed axiomatic basis for modern probability theory.[3]
 He was born in Pavia, Lombardy, the illegitimate child
of Fazio Cardano, a mathematically gifted lawyer, who was a friend of Leonardo da Vinci. In his
autobiography, Cardano claimed that his mother had attempted to abort him. Shortly before his birth,
his mother had to move from Milan to Pavia to escape the plague; her three other children died from
the disease.

In 1520, he entered the University of Pavia and later in Padua studied medicine. His eccentric and
confrontational style did not earn him many friends and he had a difficult time finding work after his
studies had ended. In 1525, Cardano repeatedly applied to the College of Physicians in Milan, but
was not admitted due to his reputation and illegitimate birth.

Eventually, he managed to develop a considerable reputation as a physician and his services were
highly valued at the courts. He was the first to describe typhoid fever.

Today, he is best known for his achievements in algebra. He published the solutions to
the cubic and quartic equations in his 1545 book Ars Magna. The solution to one particular case of
the cubic, x3 + ax = b (in modern notation), was communicated to him by Niccolò Fontana
Tartaglia (who later claimed that Cardano had sworn not to reveal it, and engaged Cardano in a
decade-long fight), and the quartic was solved by Cardano's student Lodovico Ferrari. Both were
acknowledged in the foreword of the book, as well as in several places within its body. In his
exposition, he acknowledged the existence of what are now called imaginary numbers, although he
did not understand their properties (Mathematical field theory was developed centuries later). InOpus
novum de proportionibus he introduced the binomial coefficients and the binomial theorem.

Cardano was notoriously short of money and kept himself solvent by being an accomplished gambler
and chess player. His book about games of chance, Liber de ludo aleae ("Book on Games of
Chance") , written in 1526, but not published until 1663, contains the first systematic treatment
ofprobability, as well as a section on effective cheating methods.
Portrait of Cardano on display at the School of Mathematics and Statistics,University of St Andrews.

Cardano invented several mechanical devices including the combination lock, the gimbal consisting of

three concentric rings allowing a supported compass or gyroscope to rotate freely, and the Cardan
shaft with universal joints, which allows the transmission of rotary motion at various angles and is
used in vehicles to this day. He studied hypocycloids, published in de proportionibus 1570. The
generating circles of these hypocycloids were later named Cardano circles or cardanic circles and
were used for the construction of the first high-speed printing presses. He made several contributions
to hydrodynamics and held that perpetual motion is impossible, except in celestial bodies. He
published two encyclopedias of natural science which contain a wide variety of inventions, facts, and
occult superstitions. He also introduced the Cardan grille, a cryptographic tool, in 1550.

Someone also assumed to Cardano the credit for the invention of the so called Cardano's Rings, also
called Chinese Rings, but it is very probable that they are more ancient than Cardano.

Significantly, in the history of Deaf education, he said that deaf people were capable of using their
minds, argued for the importance of teaching them, and was one of the first to state that deaf people
could learn to read and write without learning how to speak first. He was familiar with a report
by Rudolph Agricola about a deaf mute who had learned to write.

Cardano's eldest and favorite son was executed in 1560 after he confessed to
having poisoned his cuckolding wife. His other son was a gambler, who stole money from him. He
allegedly cropped the ears of one of his sons. Cardano himself was accused of heresy in 1570
because he had computed and published thehoroscope of Jesus in 1554. Apparently, his own son
contributed to the prosecution, bribed by Tartaglia. He was arrested, had to spend several months in
prison and was forced to abjure his professorship. He moved to Rome, received a
lifetime annuity from Pope Gregory XIII (after first having been rejected by Pope Pius V) and finished
his autobiography.
Jacob Bernoulli (also known as James or Jacques) (27 December 1654 – 16 August 1705) was
one of the many prominent mathematicians in theBernoulli family.

Jacob Bernoulli was born in Basel, Switzerland. Following his father's wish, he studied theology and
entered the ministry. But contrary to the desires of his parents, he also
studied mathematics and astronomy. He traveled throughout Europe from 1676 to 1682, learning
about the latest discoveries in mathematics and the sciences. This included the work of Robert
Boyle and Robert Hooke.

Jacob Bernoulli's grave.

He became familiar with calculus through a correspondence with Gottfried Leibniz, then collaborated

with his brother Johann on various applications, notably publishing papers on transcendental
curves (1696) andisoperimetry (1700, 1701). In 1690, Jacob Bernoulli became the first person to
develop the technique for solving separable differential equations.

Upon returning to Basel in 1682, he founded a school for mathematics and the sciences. He was
appointed professor of mathematics at the University of Basel in 1687, remaining in this position for
the rest of his life.

Jacob Bernoulli is best known for the work Ars Conjectandi (The Art of Conjecture), published eight
years after his death in 1713 by his nephew Nicholas. In this work, he described the known results in
probability theory and in enumeration, often providing alternative proofs of known results. This work
also includes the application of probability theory to games of chance and his introduction of the
theorem known as the law of large numbers. The terms Bernoulli trial and Bernoulli numbers result
from this work. The lunar craterBernoulli is also named after him jointly with his brother Johann.

Bernoulli chose a figure of a logarithmic spiral and the motto Eadem mutata resurgo ("Changed and
yet the same, I rise again") for his gravestone; the spiral executed by the stonemasons was, however,
anArchimedean spiral.[1], “[Jacques Bernoulli] wrote that the logarithmic spiral ‘may be used as a
symbol, either of fortitude and constancy in adversity, or of the human body, which after all its
changes, even after death, will be restored to its exact and perfect self’.” (Livio 2002: 116). Jacob had
five daughters and three sons.

This article is about the French scientist and philosopher. For the programming language, see Pascal
(programming language).

Blaise Pascal
 Blaise Pascal

Full name Blaise Pascal

Born June 19, 1623

Clermont-Ferrand, France

Died August 19, 1662 (aged 39)

Paris, France

Era 17th-century philosophy

Region Western Philosophy

School Continental Philosophy, precursor to existentialism

Main Theology, Mathematics

interests

Notable ideas Pascal's Wager, Pascal's triangle,Pascal's law, Pascal's

theorem

Influenced by

Blaise Pascal (French pronunciation: [blɛz paskal]; June 19, 1623, Clermont-Ferrand – August 19,

1662, Paris) was a French mathematician, physicist,inventor, writer and Catholic philosopher. He was
a child prodigy who was educated by his father, a Tax Collector in Rouen. Pascal's earliest work was
in the natural and applied sciences where he made important contributions to the study of fluids, and
clarified the concepts of pressure and vacuum by generalizing the work of Evangelista Torricelli.
Pascal also wrote in defense of the scientific method.

In 1642, while still a teenager, he started some pioneering work on calculating machines, and after
three years of effort and 50 prototypes[1] he invented themechanical calculator[2][3]. He built twenty of
these machines (called the Pascaline) in the following ten years[4]. Pascal was a mathematician of the
first order. He helped create two major new areas of research. He wrote a significant treatise on the
subject of projective geometry at the age of sixteen, and later corresponded with Pierre de
Fermat on probability theory, strongly influencing the development of modern economics and social
science. FollowingGalileo and Torricelli, in 1646 he refuted Aristotle's followers who insisted
that nature abhors a vacuum. His results caused many disputes before being accepted.
In 1646, he and his sister Jacqueline identified with the religious movement within Catholicism known
by its detractors as Jansenism.[5] His father died in 1651. Following a mystical experience in late 1654,
he had his "second conversion", abandoned his scientific work, and devoted himself to philosophy
andtheology. His two most famous works date from this period: the Lettres provinciales and
the Pensées, the former set in the conflict between Jansenists andJesuits. In this year, he also wrote
an important treatise on the arithmetical triangle. Between 1658 and 1659 he wrote on the cycloid and
its use in calculating the volume of solids.

Pascal had poor health especially after his eighteenth year and his death came just two months after
his 39th birthday.[

b)The difference between Theoretical Probability and

Empirical Probability

Theoretical probability is the branch of probability

concerned with the theory. There is no concrete proof

and all results are based only on calculation.

Empirical probability, as its name suggests, is based on

experiments and the result.

y Genetics and other stochastic models in Application biology
y Information theory and signal processing
y Communication networks
y Application Stochastic models in operations research

The probability theory

The theoretical probability, or probability, P(E), of an event E is thefraction of times we

expect E to occur if we repeat the sameexperiment over and over. In an experiment in

which all outcomes areequally likely, the theoretical probability of an event E is P(E)
P(E) : number of favorable outcomes = n(E)
Total number of outcomes n(s)

(The "favorable outcomes" are the outcomes in E.)

The empirical approach to determining probabilities relies on datafrom actual experiments

to determine approximate probabilitiesinstead of the assumption of equal likeliness.

Probabilities in theseexperiments are defined as the ratio of the frequency of theoccupance

of an event, f(E), to the number of trials in the experiment,n, written symbolically as P(E) =

f(E)/n. If our experiment involvesflipping a coin, the empirical probability of heads is the

number of heads divided by the total number of flips.

Part 2

Possible outcomes when dice is tossed once

(1,2,3,4,5,6)

b) Possible outcomes when two dice are tossed simultaneously

total outcomes

£ (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)

(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)

(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)

(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)

(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)

(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

00

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,!) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6.5) (6,6)
6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)
^
5 (1,5) (2.5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)

4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)

3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)

1
2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)

1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1
2
)00
3
Method 1`
4

5
1
6
2

3
2 4
5
6
1

3 2
3

4
5
1 6

4 2

3
5
4

1 5
6
2
5 4 3\
 Part 3

Sum of the dots on Possible outcomes Probaility

both turned –up faces
(x)
2 (1,1) 1/36
3 (1,2),(2,1) 2/36
4 (1,3),(2,2),(3,1) 3/36
5 4/36
(1,4),(2,3),(3,3),(4,1)
6 (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) 5/36
7 (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,2) 6/36
8 (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2) 5/36
9 (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) 4/36
10 (4,6),(5,5),(6,4) 3/36

11 (5,6),(6,5) 2/36
12 (6,6) 1/36

(b)Possible outcomes of
A = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
B=ø
P = Both number are prime
P = {(2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)
Q = Difference of 2 number is odd
Q = { (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3),
(4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5) }
C=PUQ
C = {1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5) }
R = The sum of 2 numbers are even
R = {(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (2,2), (2,4), (2,6), (3,1), (3,3), (3,5), (4,2), (4,4),
(4,6), (5,1), (5,3), (5,5), (6,2(, (6,4), (6,6)}
D=PR
D = {(2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)

PART 4

(a)
Conduct an activity by tossing two dice simultaneously 50 times

SUM OF THE TWO NUMBER (X) FREQUENCY( ∫ ❑¿

4 3
9 4
16 3
25 2
36 4
49 6
64 10
81 11
100 2
121 3
144 2
Table 4.1
Aim of carrying out this additional mathematics project work are

 To apply and adapt a variaty of problem -solving strategies to solve problems



 To promotes effective mathematical communication

 To develop mathematical knowledge through problems solving in a way increase students

Interest and confidence .

 To use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas precisely .

 To provide learning enviroment that stimulates and enchances effective learning

 To develop positive attitude toward mathematics .